November 02, 2008

You Want Something to Believe In?
— Jack M.

I'll give ya something to believe in. I'm generous that way. The new TIPP/Investor's Business Daily Poll is out. And it's got the race tightening like Ace's pants at a Star Wars convention.

Obama 46.7% McCain/Palin 44.6% Undecided 8.7%

From the poll:

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

The 2.1% spread is the closest the race has been since October 23 when Obama had a slim 1.1% lead. It also means that McCain has cut the lead in half in this poll since yesterday, when Obama had a 4.5% lead.

Fight on, true believers. And here is a little extra incentive for you to continue to get out and work on behalf of McPalin:

Imagine the heads that will explode when the proper context for this photo is Sarahcuda being sworn in as Vice President. Now get back to work!

Posted by: Jack M. at 10:37 AM | Comments (140)
Post contains 200 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Todd's so fucking proud of her, it almost looks like a fucking wedding picture.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 10:43 AM (ul7te)

2 Wow, that picture is so good it's like... porn to me.

Posted by: Lee at November 02, 2008 10:44 AM (TxTIh)

3 As I said in the earlier thread, the trends are nice, but the polls are still crap. Even the best pollsters aren't getting good information. This is compounded by the normal weekend skewing (unfavorable to Republicans). So take heart in the internals, be gladdened by the trends, but above all, just get out and vote and ignore this stuff.

Posted by: Fresh Air at November 02, 2008 10:45 AM (SXkkC)

4 Cuda attacked Obama on the coal comments just now.... McCain barely mentioned it at PA.

Posted by: Jay at November 02, 2008 10:48 AM (qddqX)

5

And it's got the race tightening like Ace's pants at a Star Wars convention.

Wouldn't that be bulging and not just tightening?

But with the lovely mental picture I tragically digress from the task at hand...

 

Posted by: ericH at November 02, 2008 10:48 AM (OOQKz)

6

fwiw,  I live in Suburban Philly. 

Came out of church to find that the Right to Life people put some info under the wiper.  Well produced, easy to read ... don't know if it's a difference maker, but McCain people are out and about.

.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at November 02, 2008 10:50 AM (GuX8p)

7 MUCH more important that the coal comments is this statement from the same speech: "You know, when I was asked earlier about the issue of coal, uh, you know — Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket."

Posted by: Jim Digriz at November 02, 2008 10:50 AM (rWzis)

8

Vote McCain.

Tell "Them" You Voted for Obama.

-

Posted by: BumperStickerist at November 02, 2008 10:50 AM (GuX8p)

9 Guys, we need to think of ways to protect our vehicles on election day. I can see the nutters slashing our tires. I am going to have our cars parked in our garage.

Posted by: Ginger at November 02, 2008 10:51 AM (2Snaq)

10 The best point to note is the larger number of undecideds, which would tend to favor McCain.

If Barry was really the greatest thing since sliced bread,* he'd have already closed the deal by now.  McCain will become the default for those that wind up voting.


(*Bread?  White bread???  Racist!)

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at November 02, 2008 10:51 AM (MMC8r)

11 It should be added that Republicans typically poll poorly over weekends. Karl Rove brought that up last weekend.

Posted by: Michelle's American White Racist at November 02, 2008 10:52 AM (NLtVk)

12

Nice news to read while at the same exact time I was telling a person calling on the half of Obama that there was no way in hell he'd get my vote.

Hopefully the state polls tighten up, Mac did mighty good last night on SNL, if it nets him 1,000 votes somewhere out there its still not too shabby.

Hope the 72hr GOP push in on in place like Ohio, Florida, PA and VA,  we have the ammo that should be able to bring Barry down in defeat if only the people (and the media) would open their eyes.

Posted by: Rbastid at November 02, 2008 10:53 AM (G/bZX)

13 McCains fired up in Scranton! Mac is back.

Posted by: politicalmuse at November 02, 2008 10:53 AM (kLKnf)

14 Pretty sweet, pretty neat.

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 10:55 AM (hawOV)

15 maybe we can convince the obots to be like barack and on november 4th to "vote PRESENT"!!!!!

Posted by: paul t at November 02, 2008 10:55 AM (HVRnf)

16 I live in Chicago, and last Sunday at my parish, they were passing out the excellent "Catholic Voters' Guide." (Preaching to the choir at my parish, but whatev. There's always tourists.)

Today, they were handing out pamphlets of a side-by-side comparison of the stances on "Life Issues" of both candidates.

And in the last month, numerous bishops nationwide and the USCCB have issued strong statements regarding the obligation of the Catholic voter.

And I see that in the last month or so, BO has lost 11% among Catholic voters.

"Preach the Gospel always; use words when necessary", St. Francis said, and right now, words are very, very necessary.

Posted by: Cathy (in Chicago) at November 02, 2008 10:55 AM (3xgoE)

17 Yeah -- JMac IS really energized up in PA.  What a surprise.

Where in hell has he been these last few months?   It almost seems like he can smell victory.

Just gave another $50 to try and drag him over the line.


Posted by: deMontjoie at November 02, 2008 10:56 AM (D4bPm)

18 As they note on Townhall with this poll if McCain takes 2/3s of undecideds he wins. I think 2/3s would be a base for him. I expcet McCain to take at least 3/4s if not 4/5's of undecideds. I just don't see how anyone could still be undecided about Obama at this point. There will be a small percentage who will just vote for the percived winner. I still think the polls are crap though as sampling is garbage and too many people refusing to even participate.

Really hilarious is George Will predicting that Obama will get 378 electoral votes. The guy must be mainlineing sherry at this point as there is no way this could happen without a viable third party candidate and there isn't one.

Posted by: Rocks at November 02, 2008 10:57 AM (7rbe9)

19 I hate squished pictures... fix it!

Posted by: Kaptain Amerika at November 02, 2008 10:58 AM (4Qspj)

20

If Mac Loses Indiana, the Election was stolen.

I'm just saying.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 11:00 AM (ul7te)

21

Has anybody got any data on how the poll weightings between D's, R's, and I's has evolved over the past weeks?

Are we seeing change, or just a relaxation of the strong D-favoring weights, as the pollsters get nervous about their credibility?

I am getting more and more confident about a McCain victory, but I am quite bitter about how the media and the polls have tried to hard to portray this as an Obama runaway. This could lead to two scenarios, both very bad for the country:

1) Obama winds through massive fraud, and gets away with it without scrutiny because of the skewed polls showing he was "destined" to anyway.

2) McCain wins, but we get anger, riots, deaths, and a continuation of the hyper-partisan culture wars, because so many people assume that he must have stolen the election because the polls said he could not win.

Anyway, we need to get more visibility of exactly what is going into these polls, not just what is coming out!

Posted by: sherlock at November 02, 2008 11:03 AM (ojW85)

22 @20 another thing to point out about Indiana polls is that pollsters are not exempt from do not call lists in Indiana.  Guess who is disproportionally on that state list.  Republican voters.  Indiana won't be close.

Posted by: David at November 02, 2008 11:04 AM (HAdov)

23 Rass changed his weight to +6.5 D, based on a 6 week average.  His latest week though shows that he should use +3 D weighting though if he didn't use an average.  If you reweight the credible polls you get +2.1 M to +1.8 O.

Posted by: David at November 02, 2008 11:07 AM (HAdov)

24

I noticed in many of the demographic groups where the asshOle was up, undecideds had a high number as well.

For instance, Obama is winning suburban by 7, with 11% undecided. Undecided obviously means a McCain voter who doesn't want to be called a racist.

Posted by: adolfo_velasquez at November 02, 2008 11:08 AM (UkwFn)

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:11 AM (hawOV)

26 I did not know that david, thanks.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 11:12 AM (ul7te)

27 Ace et al,

Did you see this little gem from American Thinker:


October 31, 2008 Notes from a battleground state (PA) Thomas Lifson

The following comes to us from a GOP campaign worker in a heavily-contested battleground state. I know this person well, and trust him or her. The campaign worker wrote me:

"This is an amusing document that was sitting on the desktop of a public shared computer in the lobby of my hotel in [city name]. I came across it while using the computer to print something else for work.
"I assume a Democrat wrote it."

American Thinker cannot vouch for the authenticity of this document. But we find it amusing, as did our source:


Bad News from the Keystone State
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is something that I want all of my blue state friends to know before it's too late, and I'm not sure who else is going to tell you.
I CAN'T SEE HOW OBAMA CAN WIN PENNSYLVANIA...

http://tinyurl.com/6zpdvw


Click over for the rest. There's even a video of all those "redneck" Pennsylvanians. I found it interesting to say the least.     Not sure if it's an Axelrod false flag/astroturf. But, the key question I always ask myself about these "honest reports from an Obama supporter" is how does it make a McCain/Palin supporter feel? Read the comments section as well. Plenty of Pennsylvanians weighing in. Personally, I don't think Obama can win PA.

With all the accusations of overt racism in this document, I think Murtha wrote the damn thing. So go. Read. Enjoy. Meh.


TheJane

Posted by: TheJane at November 02, 2008 11:14 AM (FFDEd)

28 I thought last night's SNL was a seven (Palin's last time was a nine  or ten).  The Weekend Update skit was somewhat lame, but still showed McCain to be a good sport.  But the opening QVC skit was superb.*  It showed McCain to be funny, self-depricating, and clever.  the blank collectible plates:  a brilliant jab at ZerObama.  And Cindy's appearance?  WOW.  Overall, it should bag some undecided, fairly younger voters.



* I thought the Palin 2012 t-shirt thing was a little much; hence the seven/ten and not higher.

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at November 02, 2008 11:14 AM (Ihk12)

29

#23 I am not sure what you are saying.  Can you re-weight your explanation slightly more toward us morons?  For example "Rass changed his weight to +6.5 D, based on a 6 week average."  Changed it from what?

Thanks!

Posted by: sherlock at November 02, 2008 11:15 AM (ojW85)

30 Drudge, Insta, and now RedState is down. Smells like a DOS attack to me.

Posted by: Tushar at November 02, 2008 11:16 AM (PTWes)

31 (Olbermann skit was good too, for de-demonizing President Bush a tiny bit.)

By the way, the McCain-Palin treatment of SNL clearly proves that SNL is a PUMA organization, so we should thank Lorne Michaels and/or the other powers that be.

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at November 02, 2008 11:17 AM (Ihk12)

32 McCain wins, but we get anger, riots, deaths, and a continuation of the hyper-partisan culture wars, because so many people assume that he must have stolen the election because the polls said he could not win.

I had a wild thought.  Philly usually has insane turnout numbers.  People have voted in precincts in numbers higher than the census, but overall.  According to a 4-year-old John Fund article: "Philadelphia's voter rolls, for instance, have jumped 24 percent since 1995 at the same time that the city's population has declined by 13 percent."

Like in any big city, there are precincts where you could register every adult there and cast a vote on their behalf.  A 99% margin of victory would not even be glanced at.

I wonder if (a) Rendell will bother with the amped up GOTV efforts for Obama or if he will even (b) ensure voter fraud happens, and is visible, but on behalf of McCain.

Stick with me here.  Assuming that Hillary still wants the presidency and that even a disastrous Obama presidency would lead to a renomination, she would want him to lose.  If Rendell ensures that a little voter fraud is conducted on behalf of McCain, he kills two birds: He ensures that Obama loses and he taints McCain's victory.

But that's way way too Machiavellian even for the Democrats, right?

Right?

Posted by: AmishDude at November 02, 2008 11:20 AM (GlrN/)

33 "Drudge, Insta, and now RedState is down. Smells like a DOS attack to me."

I got into Instapundit and Drudge just now.

RedState was still down (500 Internal Server Error).

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:21 AM (hawOV)

34 Drudge is there...

Posted by: t at November 02, 2008 11:21 AM (xSPT9)

35 Hey, Tushar - I had no problem accessing any of those sites.

Posted by: Jim62sch at November 02, 2008 11:21 AM (6rQXk)

36 I can get on drudge-no prob!

Posted by: Rob at November 02, 2008 11:22 AM (yQXE2)

37 Sorry, last post was disjointed above, let me just repeat my thesis:

I wonder if (a) Rendell will not bother with the amped up GOTV efforts for Obama or if he will even (b) ensure voter fraud happens, and is visible, but on behalf of McCain.

Stick with me here.  Assuming that Hillary still wants the presidency and that even a disastrous Obama presidency would lead to a renomination, she would want him to lose.  If Rendell ensures that a little voter fraud is conducted on behalf of McCain, he kills two birds: He ensures that Obama loses and he taints McCain's victory.

But that's way way too Machiavellian even for the Democrats, right?

Right?

Posted by: AmishDude at November 02, 2008 11:22 AM (GlrN/)

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:22 AM (hawOV)

39 Whoops, except Redstate, it's down.

Posted by: Jim62sch at November 02, 2008 11:23 AM (6rQXk)

40 Does anyone else think that, win or lose for His Holiness, there's gonna be some rioting in Chicago?  It's just a question of the amount of property damage.  I'm sure glad I'm not a Chicago cop right now! I imagine they're planning on going to "Condition Red" or whatever their term for full alert is.

Posted by: Beppo at November 02, 2008 11:23 AM (DOxL7)

41 Really, Jim, I still can't get on RedState. Can someone else check it out?

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:23 AM (hawOV)

42 Yep, thanks, Jim.

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:23 AM (hawOV)

43 redstate is the only one down

I got to drudge and insta with no prob

Posted by: mpur at November 02, 2008 11:25 AM (BotaL)

44 Yeah, RedState is down.

Posted by: Rebekah at November 02, 2008 11:25 AM (Hjij/)

45 Yep - Redstate is down for me as well - internal server error.

Posted by: Major Graham at November 02, 2008 11:25 AM (qGn4/)

46

Finally...

Change I can believe in...

 

Vote McCain/Palin, and tell the MSM hacks you voted for Obammy!

 

 

Posted by: Bob at November 02, 2008 11:26 AM (cslgb)

47 haven't had a problem with either insty or drudge (and I had to swallow my own vomit to click him, I hate drudge)

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 11:26 AM (ul7te)

48 The Obama coal thing is the top story on Memeorandum.

Posted by: Jim62sch at November 02, 2008 11:27 AM (6rQXk)

49

Ride to glory!! March to freedom! We will win!

America defeats communism once again!! John McCain/Sara Palin Win.

Get to the polls and take a friend,family members, and even bums(hey the dems do it)

We will singlehandedly destroy the careers of all MSNBC, Half of CNN, the turncoat crowd of Noonan, Buckley and the rest of the fucking cowards.

America will remain strong. We will once again be the ultimate force of good throughout this world.

Defend freedom, Defeat Senator Government gun grabber the extreme abortion pushin Wealth spreader and Joe the Schmo Biden.

We can be victorious. THis is our election to win. SO lets do it!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: PPP at November 02, 2008 11:27 AM (zzms8)

50

The implication sucks ...it's accurate, and true, we all know it, but it still sucks. Running Against Bush.

...by the smartest political analyst on the planet, Caroline Glick, JP.

WAF.

 

 

Posted by: davis,br at November 02, 2008 11:27 AM (zewwG)

51 http://tiny.cc/mBpfl  VOTE, damn ye!

Posted by: tree hugging sister at November 02, 2008 11:29 AM (RAqf7)

52 "#23 I am not sure what you are saying.  Can you re-weight your explanation slightly more toward us morons?  For example "Rass changed his weight to +6.5 D, based on a 6 week average."  Changed it from what?"

I don't have my old numbers in front of me, but starting today Ras now weighs national polls with a 6.5D advantage down from ~7.7? last week.

What Ras does is take what he gets from separate survey results from the past 6 weeks to decide his party weightings for the national poll.  The past week showed that the demographics are +3D which is what most realistic people were expecting, but since Ras already decided on a 6 week average for party affiliation he is stuck with +6.5D.

If you reweight the Ras poll for +3D then you get ~1.5 Obama advantage in the poll.  Then if you add in independants breaking for Mac it looks even better, but I haven't ran those numbers yet.

Posted by: David at November 02, 2008 11:30 AM (HAdov)

53 Although I am all for staying on topic at this point, I am also wondering why this illustrious site has not picked up on the "Most Beautiful Goat" contest in Saudi Arabia as posted by Mark Steyn on NRO.  I am sure that we can do a far better job of discussing the matter since our er, diction, tends to be richer.

Posted by: Popcorn at November 02, 2008 11:36 AM (Tha0W)

54 FLASHBACK<<<<< Here's another must read flashback from the primary days, that WILL give you more to believe in. Classic example of Obama and Pollsters getting owned by Senator Clinton: http://tinyurl.com/2exju2

Posted by: watchdog at November 02, 2008 11:37 AM (yCbBv)

55 right on PPP, aww the hell with it-

* PUMA power activate*
form of - Americans who love their Country
shape of - an enormous swing of DEM Base voters and GOP voters to carry MAC/PALIN to the win

W00T!

Booyah!!

Posted by: ginaswo at November 02, 2008 11:44 AM (avHNs)

56

Ok, David, that makes it a little clearer.  But what is the rationale behind using any weighting at all?  If you add (say) 7% more Democrats, aren't you saying "I think there is a higher percentage of Democrats than what I found in the sample I polled"?  Exactly what is the justification for that?  If there are 7% more Dems, you should see 7% more of them in your sample.  If you don't, your sample is either bad, or there are NOT 7% more Dems.  How can you say as a pollster "My sample is good, but flawed because it has too few Dems"?  Huh, which is it?

If there is an answer that is logical, I'd love to hear it.

Posted by: sherlock at November 02, 2008 11:46 AM (ojW85)

57 David - thanks for that "weighty" info. I have followed Ras for awhile and found his stuff pretty good in 2004, just couldn't see how he was getting such a big Obama margin with a reasonable weighting of the poll. That could explain alot. And by the way, I still think they are underestimating GOP turnout. I live in a deep red county in Texas (like 75-25%) and our early voting was up 20%.

Posted by: Rob at November 02, 2008 11:47 AM (yQXE2)

58 Does anyone else get the feeling that someone in Palin's family blogs, I bet they are the ones letting her know about everything that's going on.

Posted by: spypeach at November 02, 2008 11:48 AM (QwWKI)

59 Sorry for the unclear comment, folks. Some commenters did report Insty down earlier in the day, and I could not get to Drudge for a long time.

Could be enemy action, or simple happenstance.

Posted by: Tushar at November 02, 2008 11:49 AM (PTWes)

60 I am starting to get excited again!  Almost like when Palin was first announced as VP.  almost.....

Posted by: Men with one nut for Obama at November 02, 2008 11:50 AM (7kGAN)

61 56 - The difference is between likely/registered voters in this case. The sample produced by pollsters is of RVs (usually, some do adults in general). Then they re-weight from that result based on whatever their formula is for LVs. It could be past voting behavior, party id, state/national demographics, expectations/circumstances leading to a change in the electorate, etc. The LV # is usually what is reported.

Posted by: Sean at November 02, 2008 11:51 AM (vZzYJ)

62

56, You'd think if they were weighting for anything, it would be to add weight to the Rs.  Aren't we a lot more inclined to refuse to be polled?

I don't get the point of weighting, either.  If the sample's so small or focused on one geographic area to the point weighting is necessary, it doesn't seem a hell of a lot more likely to be accurate than a guess.

Posted by: Rebekah at November 02, 2008 11:51 AM (Hjij/)

63 go to LGF and click on Halloween video of an angel.

you betcha

Posted by: free at November 02, 2008 11:52 AM (cFwGO)

64 Ah, okay--it's a likely voter thing.  I get it now.

Posted by: Rebekah at November 02, 2008 11:52 AM (Hjij/)

65 spypeach, what makes you say that about Palin's family having a blogger?  Just curious.  And curiouser.

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at November 02, 2008 11:52 AM (Ihk12)

66

Just a feeling really, she seems to be on top of all of the recent news, she's young and she has teenagers who must be on the internet. I can just imagine her getting text messages from Todd or one of her older kids saying "Hey Mom, you won't believe what I read on Ace of Spades".

 

Posted by: spypeach at November 02, 2008 11:57 AM (QwWKI)

67 You're a fucking lifeline this weekend, Ace. The Guinness helps too. Back to the phones.

Posted by: sdkruiser at November 02, 2008 11:58 AM (KtmCv)

68 Yeah, Ace has done great work this weekend. Thank God.

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 11:59 AM (hawOV)

69 40 beppo IIRC the treasurer of Illinois Alex Gianoulas sp/ has written on his website before that property damage is all part of citizenship and expected

 Obummer in one of his combine pay to play moves pushed him into office, a total unknown newbie, as payback.

.imagine that situation on the national level, the pay to play/nepotism of Chicago politics when the economy is falling apart

his BarackBook entry is here:
http://tinyurl.com/57fx4u

and AmishDude
 we do not have to cheat to win PA, all we have to do is hope THEY

(ACORN and the cabal of morons I used to call my party leadership) dont get enough stuffed ballots to outweigh us)

JHillary kicked Obummers skinny butt all over PA WVA KY OH despite him outspending her 4-1 and all the DNC and media on his side saying it was over for months..

MAC will sweep all we DEM base voters up, I promise, just GOTV on the GOP side like crazy to counterweigh the cheating by ACORN and DNC

Posted by: ginaswo at November 02, 2008 12:00 PM (avHNs)

70

Vote McCain.

Tell "Them" You Voted for Obama.

Thats what screws up the exit polls everytime. 8.7 % Undecided? Seriously? That's just a polite way of saying 'How about minding your own fekking business ... Assholes"

I think McCain takes this away by alot. Obama and the Left are going to be stunned that most US citizens don't actually think the same way as they do in liberaland. I predict a huge turnout on the left and many of them will be pulling for McCain. The media will start calling for McCain to concede by mid-afternoon as the exit polls will show Obama ahead. Go ... Do your Job and vote. Everything will be fine ....  Until the riots start

Posted by: Dave in PB at November 02, 2008 12:02 PM (CTSya)

71

Sherlock,

Weighting is supposedly (but not really) based on varifiable ratio's.

You take the number of self identified republican's and dem's (and others) from previous elections, and current party association, and you assume that those numbers are accurate, so when you call random people, "The Sample." you then offset the sample based on previous, or currently assumed ratio's of those affiliations.

You then apply other weighting to determine "likely" voters, to weight outside of the "registerds."

Basicaly, it's philosophy in math.

A shit load of assumptions expressed in a  rather poorly thought out formula

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 12:02 PM (ul7te)

72

Oh, Btw, sherlock, just so you know, though I'm sure you already do.

I'm not an expert, I just read redstate.

And I'm a Hostage.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 12:03 PM (ul7te)

Posted by: Kaptain Amerika at November 02, 2008 12:04 PM (atZxf)

74 The real story of the IBD poll is the +65 year olds.  They are moving back to McCain.  McCain and Palin need to take the next two days and hammer the fact home that SS and medicare is safe.  esp in PA, OH, and VA.   they also need to explain the coal comments of Obama.  Those two topics will win them the election.  We just went thru a doubling of gasoline.  we do not and can not stand a tripling of our electric bills.

Posted by: unseen at November 02, 2008 12:04 PM (M5zWC)

75 redstate.com is DOWN...

Posted by: Kaptain Amerika at November 02, 2008 12:05 PM (atZxf)

76 If  McCain can pull this off, what an incredible testament to the power of new media and the blogosphere.

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at November 02, 2008 12:06 PM (Ihk12)

77

WAIT- This cant be right. Yesterday during the Texas-Texas Tech halftime, Charlie Gibson told me the election was a foregone conclusion.

Charlie said Hussein was out in front by 9 and that the undecideds had, in fact, decided, and pretty much implied I should just stay home.

so wtf?

Posted by: Jones at November 02, 2008 12:08 PM (VkNlv)

78 and incredible testament to the corruption, arrogance, and bias of the old media.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 12:09 PM (ul7te)

79 Joe the Plumber is live with Cavuto right now. And wareing a Bass Pro Shop t-shirt. Nice.

Posted by: Swegin at November 02, 2008 12:09 PM (q0Z3p)

80

Pew's lead for Obama is down from 15 to 6 in two weeks; factor in the registration disparity that it likely has, this race is probably a three-point race.

Posted by: Palin/Cantor 2012 at November 02, 2008 12:11 PM (JbTeQ)

81 79 - wareing = wearing

Posted by: Swegin at November 02, 2008 12:12 PM (q0Z3p)

82 Yeah Jones ... and Texas was supposed to beat Tech hahahaha! You have to line up and play the game - can't wait to see the media crumble on Tuesday!

Posted by: Rob at November 02, 2008 12:12 PM (yQXE2)

83 3 year old Sarah Palin  
http://tinyurl.com/6jdy9d

Posted by: Ron. at November 02, 2008 12:13 PM (qEDHk)

84

Doggonit Ron that was so cute.

Posted by: spypeach at November 02, 2008 12:15 PM (QwWKI)

85 Standing in line right now for McCain's town hall in NH. Nice turnout on a chilly afternoon and no Eeyores in sight.

Posted by: Andy at November 02, 2008 12:17 PM (KkY2m)

86

I believe this is why the “spread the wealth” comment is beating Obama to shreds:

http://www.tipponline.com/social.html

Look how the EVERY party disagrees with socialism.

Agree or disagree: I believe it is the government’s role to redistribute wealth and income?
Choices–> Agree Disagree
All Respondents 22% 62%
Democrats 29% 50%
Republicans 14% 80%
Independents 22% 60%
Obama Supporters 28% 52%
McCain Supporters 14% 79%

Posted by: Gary at November 02, 2008 12:18 PM (eV1I0)

87 What are the internal Dem-Rep-Inde percentages for the TIP poll?  I do not see them in the free section.

Posted by: Gary at November 02, 2008 12:19 PM (eV1I0)

88 SARAH PALIN WAS ON FIRE!

She hit Obama and the San Francisco Chronicle hard, hard, HARD!

Her whole speech was magnificent. This, my friends, was a masterful politician who connected with her swing state audience.

Listen to her from 14:55 in talking about energy or 17:09 talking about coal and the tape. Tell me she wasn't awesome! This has got to become news.

Make ads. Make ads, McCain allies. Make ads.

Posted by: Christoph at November 02, 2008 12:19 PM (hawOV)

89 One of the nicest things about Sarah is that she is not a LAWYER. She will never be beholden to them.

Posted by: Tessa at November 02, 2008 12:22 PM (rFczG)

90 Gary, you know what I hate about these polls are the weird outliers. 14% of McCain voters want to redistribute wealth? WTF?

Posted by: adolfo_velasquez at November 02, 2008 12:24 PM (UkwFn)

91 adolfo_velasquez

remember they give no stats for liars... people who purposefully lie to the poller

Posted by: Kaptain Amerika at November 02, 2008 12:26 PM (atZxf)

92

Christof, Palin is hitting this coal remark today? Already?

That is damn fine news. No way to ignore that if you're in coal country. (Ohio, Penn, western Virginia, western NC.)

Posted by: Lee at November 02, 2008 12:29 PM (TxTIh)

93 "If you reweight the Ras poll for +3D then you get ~1.5 Obama advantage in the poll.  Then if you add in independants breaking for Mac it looks even better, but I haven't ran those numbers yet."

Posted by: David at November 02, 2008 04:30 PM

Woot! BC I have come across various little tidbits here and there trying to interpret the early voting turn out. And it always looks like there are slightly more Dems voting, but, the result for McCain was always higher than the # of those voting REP - which would mean that there are more DEMs crossing over than REP...and the REP vote is looking very much intact...

Sorry, I can't remember all the places I have seen this - but I know that one place I saw it was Fox yesterday. Interestingly - though they showed the colored pie charts and all - they didn't focus on that - you could see that point - but, what they discussed was more about the DEMs and the benefit to The Big Zero.

Posted by: freetofly at November 02, 2008 12:34 PM (VW0hD)

94

Ad BUY!

AD BUY LIKE THE WIND!!

Posted by: Wickedpinto at November 02, 2008 12:35 PM (ul7te)

95

I've been working on my evil laugh.

 

No matter what the results are, I'm going to be laughing my ass off. Most of my buddies are liberals (as are my neighbors), so if they lose it will be all I can do not to smirk and giggle and just plain guffaw.

 

 If they win, then I'm going to enjoy the next 4 years of them trying to cover their disillusionment and trying to excuse Obama's failures. And I look forward to all Biden's gaffes as well as the Clintonian sniping from the sidelines. Good times all around. My cash situation will suck, but that's likely to be true no matter who comes in.

Posted by: meep at November 02, 2008 12:47 PM (7uTCa)

96

P.S. Thanks tons for this post Jack M!

The hardest thing about this latter part of the election is not letting all the fake propaganda get in our heads and make us overwhelmingly hopeless. It's great to be able to come here and remember that we are indeed on the right track...

 

 

Posted by: freetofly at November 02, 2008 12:52 PM (VW0hD)

97 Wow, Sarah was on fire in the speech, linked above.  She is just amazing.  AMAZING!

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at November 02, 2008 12:53 PM (Ihk12)

98 You know, as serious as this is, as much is at stake - I can't help but  (in petty shallowness of mind) think that if we can pull this off, if we win - I am going to love watching every pundit, newscaster and pollster have to eat plates and plates of crow! I really am!

Posted by: freetofly at November 02, 2008 12:59 PM (VW0hD)

99

Shshshsh!

I've got a secret:

McCain/Palin landslide.

Pass it on!

Posted by: john at November 02, 2008 01:02 PM (bblmr)

100  God the media meltdown will be incredible if we pull this off. 

P.S. You're all racists!

Posted by: brak at November 02, 2008 01:05 PM (Oiaoh)

101 Looks like robo-calls on the coal issue are going out!

http://dirtyharrysplace.com/?p=5409


Posted by: Major Graham at November 02, 2008 01:06 PM (qGn4/)

102 My wife and aunt are in NV for GOTV (we live in SoCal which is where I am right now). My wife just called from where the group is and put me on the phone with Sarah Palin’s parents (about 5 minutes each with Mom and Dad). Really nice folks. There is a lot of excitement and optimism out in NV and they are working hard.

Posted by: Pianobuff at November 02, 2008 01:11 PM (nZwEh)

103

I am new here - the comments are informative - but I am laughing so hard I am redristributing my diet coke all over the keyboard!

Posted by: Rob at November 02, 2008 01:12 PM (yQXE2)

104

Shshshsh!

I've got a secret:

McCain/Palin landslide.

Pass it on!

 

Interestingly ... I heard Ratzenberger saying the same thing on Fox just a few minutes ago!

Posted by: Dave in PB at November 02, 2008 01:12 PM (CTSya)

105 If they win, then I'm going to enjoy the next 4 years of them trying to cover their disillusionment and trying to excuse Obama's failures. And I look forward to all Biden's gaffes as well as the Clintonian sniping from the sidelines. Good times all around.

Well, my laughter is going to be muted when I think of all the derelicts, douchewads, cocksuckers, moonbats, and commies Obama is going to be appointing to the bench as judges if he wins. That alone is enough to keep me awake nights.

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 02, 2008 01:14 PM (bMJ2V)

106 What is amazing is the amount of money Obama has spent with zero traction in the polls. The only jump he got was after the Wall Street meltdown.

McCain 51 Obama 48 Nader 1

Posted by: Tiny Smeagle at November 02, 2008 01:18 PM (1V2sa)

107 Imagine the heads that will explode...

My head is already exploding over the discrepancies among the polls.  Is it random noise, just magnified, or are the poll models flawed, or is the electorate volatile and fickle, or is there skullduggery afoot?

Posted by: arbuthnot at November 02, 2008 01:40 PM (Tw7Fm)

108 More good news: the RealClearPolitics electoral map has moved to only 278 O!. Even with the fucked polls, the trend is clearly against Obama.

They've moved Ohio and Virginia from solid Obama to tossup, and Pennsylvania is now shown as leaning Obama, rather than solid Obama.

I still say the pollsters are fucked in the head if they say Iowa is going for Obama, ethanol or not.

Posted by: Dead Career Sketch at November 02, 2008 01:40 PM (JTN0y)

109

Shshshsh!

I've got a secret:

McCain/Palin landslide.

Pass it on!

Oh, please, God, if you are kind and merciful . . .

Deliver us from evil?  Possibly over the top, but I think it fits.

The thought of watching the entire media and every empty-headed Obamatron simultaneously melting down . . . well, it's almost orgasmic.

 

Posted by: tsj017 at November 02, 2008 01:42 PM (TV9JE)

110

Holy cow!

Has anyone kept a concise list of all the bullshit we now know about 'That One'?

I'll start:

Radically Anti-Gun

Wealth redistributionist

anti-military

On second thought...this could take a while...

Posted by: jmflynny at November 02, 2008 01:44 PM (UWMAk)

111

Naked Emporer still out there working.  Obama, 2007 - "Price Signals to Change Behavior".  Got that?

http://tinyurl.com/5omoc6

Posted by: Tami at November 02, 2008 01:46 PM (P3ErD)

112

'Deliver us from evil?  Possibly over the top, but I think it fits"

 

NOT over the top... Not. At. All.  I wish, I wish it would just be he was not the one I voted for, but, it'll be OK if he wins. But, it's more like OMG! What are we going to do?!

Posted by: freetofly at November 02, 2008 01:57 PM (VW0hD)

113 Hell I'm 64 and don't think I can live long enough to list all of Barry's bullshit.

Posted by: Farmer at November 02, 2008 01:58 PM (nvVAi)

114 For the first time ever, I got called by a pollster about 2 hours ago.

My first thought was to blow them off, but then I realized I wanted to hear the questions.

I would have to say they were very straightforward.  They covered local and national races.

What is the likelihood you will vote...vey, not-very, don't know.
Have you heard of (various local and national) these candidates.
Do you feel favorable or not favorable to these candidates above.
If the race was held today, would you vote for...various local, Barr, Obama, McCain.
Age, Political Affiliation...D, R, or Independent...I answered Conservative.

Pretty straight forward.

Posted by: trainer at November 02, 2008 02:05 PM (YMx0M)

115 It's good to see the changes at the RCP map. I'll take all things positive. I am shaking my head that they have Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, North Carolina and Indiana as toss ups.

Posted by: Rob at November 02, 2008 02:09 PM (yQXE2)

116 Not only is RedState down, but it's been removed from Drudge's list.  WTF??

Posted by: CB at November 02, 2008 02:09 PM (9Wv2j)

117 I was just on red state 20 min ago, and now it's down again? Are they being attacked?

Posted by: Sean at November 02, 2008 02:17 PM (vZzYJ)

118

#104:

I first put it on hotair about two hours ago.  But shshshshsh!

Pass it on.

Posted by: john at November 02, 2008 02:21 PM (bblmr)

119 Ah, color me stoopid, I don't think Drudge ever had a link to RedState.  Still can't get on, though.

Posted by: CB at November 02, 2008 02:22 PM (9Wv2j)

120 The look of pride on Todd's face is really as good as a wedding pix. That's a guy who's so comfy with himself that he has no problem with his woman being publicly more powerful than he. Yet, from their interaction with each other, you get the impression that she's not the dominant partner in the marriage and that they defer to each other. They come across as having an Ephesians-type marriage. Get out and vote, you morons!!! I've done my bit. I voted absentee cuz I'm out of the country. Fight for America! Vote McCain-Palin! Fight for America! Vote McCain-Palin! Fight! Fight! Fight! Never give up! Never give up! Never give up! We shall win!!!

Posted by: indga at November 02, 2008 02:41 PM (CFxK0)

121

WWW.MarstonChronicles.info  The McCain-Palin Landslide.

Flick the dirt from your shoulder, shake your shoe, vote McCain/Palin.  GO PUMA.

Posted by: cypher at November 02, 2008 02:46 PM (Q778U)

122 121 - thanks for the post - that was useful. 

Posted by: Major Graham at November 02, 2008 03:43 PM (qGn4/)

123 Hey world, if you have any old comments from a user named "bleh" will you please email it to

blehbleh4765@live.com

I need to patch things together and go to therapy.

Posted by: ? at November 02, 2008 04:25 PM (GNCy6)

124 What I don't get about the IBD poll is how Jewish support for Obama went from 59% up to 78% in the course of a week while support by almost everyone else went towards McCain.  Something up with that?

Posted by: Ron at November 02, 2008 05:01 PM (v3o1H)

125 #18 Rocks. "George Will must be mainlining sherry" LOL!!! Just came from the Giants-Dallas game and there were McCain Palin signs all over in the Meadowlands area. Wouldn't that be sweet if we took Jersey from Barry!!!! VOTE REPUBLICAN/CONSERVATIVE DOWN THE LINE!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 02, 2008 05:14 PM (wJMcv)

126

down oly 2 in a time where polls oversample dems and mccain supporters either hang up, say their obama supporters, and/or say their "undecided" (8.7%)

so let's say considering the 4:1 undecideds breaking for McCain stat is right, and let's give McCain say 4.5% undecideds and Obama say gets 1.5% undecideds w/ the rest not voting or going for a 3rd party candidate, that'd make it Mac 49.1 To Obama's 48.2, see i can skew polls myself

good trends, but polls are still bs. i'm extremely confident allah and the rest will all have an epic fail and Mac will end up winning 299-239 and could have a Reagan like landslide if all these so called leaked internal polling is right

the coal issue ended up big today even w/ drudge being a weak mother fucker and not making it the big story it is

i'm voting tuesday for Mac, you should too, be part of the upset, tell obama and his bots you won't let them buy your democracy

Posted by: YRM at November 02, 2008 05:54 PM (004wR)

127

Wouldn't that be sweet if we took Jersey from Barry!!!!

that karl guy from that one PA show that claims to know internal polling said barry would lose it barely to Mac, i've suspected NJ will go red sometime in the next 12 years due to the anger w/ the dems there and that the last couple elections it's gone from dems winning it w/ 10-15 leads to bush just losing it by 5 in 04

Posted by: YRM at November 02, 2008 05:56 PM (004wR)

128

#121 - Yeah, me too: kudos for that link. Interesting.

Posted by: davis,br at November 02, 2008 07:04 PM (zewwG)

129

"What I don't get about the IBD poll is how Jewish support for Obama went from 59% up to 78% in the course of a week while support by almost everyone else went towards McCain.  Something up with that?"

I think the Jewish vote is only like 3-4% of the electorate. It's a pretty small sample size of any poll.

Posted by: andrew at November 02, 2008 08:04 PM (U+N9N)

130 Teh First Dude is Hawt!

Posted by: baldilocks at November 02, 2008 08:45 PM (RYrq2)

131

I live overseas. I made damned sure that I got my absentee ballot in early. I'd crawl over a mile of broken glass on my bare hands and knees to vote against Obama. I've donated to McCain/Palin. I love my country and I damned sure don't want it being run by a Marxist anti-white racist. I suspect a lot of other people feel the same way. They'll be at the polls too.

Remember what happened with amnesty. All the media, pols, elites, "leaders" loved it. Only the AMERICAN PEOPLE hated it. The AMERICAN PEOPLE won that fight and showed them who was boss. We'll win this one too. Maybe in some other election I might vote for a Democrat. But not this one, and not this Democrat. This year we fight and this year we WIN! Get out there and VOTE! McCain/Palin '08!

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