Ace of Spades HQ

September 09, 2008

WSJ/NBC Poll Will Show Obama Ahead
— Ace

Look how much the usual suspects are touting it, under the header "Who is really winning?" And declaring that as of 6:30 Eastern, the "world will change."

On MSNBC, an Obama spokesman called the USAToday/Gallup poll an outlier, stating that it disagreed with other polls, "including the one you [MSNBC/NBC] have coming out later."

So, there you go. One poll will show Obama ahead.

Interesting that the Obama campaign knows all about it.

Thanks to the comorons.

Rasmussen: Dead Even. Ah, well, guess we need to get serious again.

15 yard penalty on me for unsportsmanlike conduct, excessive coordinated celebrations, and taunting.

Thanks to cristoph.

A Teaser! This tease makes it sound like the poll is positive for McCain/Palin:

John McCains selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate has given the Republican ticket a boost, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
More than one-third of respondents, 34%, said Palin makes it more likely for them to vote for McCain.
However, 25% of likely voters said the selection of the Alaska governor makes it less likely they will vote for McCain, while 40% said it makes no difference at all.
On the Democratic ticket, the choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as vice president, has less of an impact...

But I don't believe it. This is part of the poll's findings, but obviously not the the Big Number we all care about. Again, the Obama spokesman on MSNBC seemed to have somehow gotten advance news of the poll and thinks it's good news (or relatively so) for his guy.

On the other hand... it would be kind of strange for a tease like this to suggest the opposite of the poll's main findings. I suppose they could justify this, though, on the grounds that they were leaking an important minor finding -- the public's general favor for Palin -- which is news in and of itself, even if this particular finding seems incongruous with a poll showing Obama ahead.

"A Little Birdy:" Judd says a Koz Kid says a "little birdy" (which Judd guesses is a Round-Bellied Olbermann, lovely plumage) tells him the poll will show Obama 46 JMac/Cuda 45. A one point lead. Wowzers.

Notice how this poll is being hyped and slowly rolled out and teased by the media. I don't remember a similar PR campaign for the USAToday/Gallup poll, which was truly eye-popping.

And yeah, I'm buying into the hype, promoting a single poll as if it really will "change the way we look at the world."

What do you want? I'm a moron.

Posted by: Ace at 11:14 AM | Comments (123)
Post contains 459 words, total size 3 kb.

"Sweetie" broke the Community Organizer's ankles with a cross-over dribble. She's heading to the basket for a 360 reverse slam.

He will soil himself.

Posted by: john henry at September 09, 2008 11:16 AM (lB/5N)

2 I've been saying for a while I expect Obama-Biden to win, and I do. However, McCain-Palin have made it competitive and a Republican upset victory a real possibility.

I'm proud of them for that.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 11:17 AM (hawOV)

3 McCain will be selected, not elected.

Posted by: roy at September 09, 2008 11:17 AM (cB77O)

Barack's New Campaign Song

I went home with the netrooters
The way I always do
How was I to know
They were with the
Russians, too?

I was pandering to Havana
I took a little risk
Send lawyers, guns and pollsters
Bill, get me out of this, hyeah

I'm the innocent bystander
Somehow I got stuck
Between the Mac
and a Palin
And I'm down on my luck
Yes I'm down on my luck
Well I'm down on my luck

I'm hiding at Bon Jovi's
I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns and money
The *#@! has hit the fan

All right
Send lawyers, guns and money
Huh!
Uh...
Send lawyers, guns and pollsters
Uhh!
Send lawyers, guns and money
Hyah!
Send lawyers, guns and pollsters
Ooh!
Yeah!
Yeah
Yeah...
Uh!

Posted by: Mr. Zevon to you at September 09, 2008 11:18 AM (+GRGs)

5

And in news entirely unrelated to the MSM being in the tank for Obama:

"Gannett eliminates 100 department head positions.

They'd rather die on their knees than live on their feet.

Posted by: Looking Glass at September 09, 2008 11:18 AM (/j9WY)

Rass has McCain still ahead, NBC polls are notorious for their over sampling of Dems, why the WSJ teams up with them is beyond my imagination.

Maybe they sampled cell phones today?

Kemp

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 11:18 AM (2+9Yx)

Interesting that the Obama campaign knows all about it.

Interesting that it comes from NBC.

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 09, 2008 11:18 AM (MMC8r)

8 I think the poll will likely show that Obama still maintains a slight lead among democrat voters

Posted by: joeindc44 at September 09, 2008 11:20 AM (QxSug)

9 Touted from the rooftops by the same pundits that have been telling us for the last week that polls don't matter?

Posted by: mbruce at September 09, 2008 11:21 AM (h/5U0)

10 Who headed the phone banks for the WSJ/NBC poll? Olbermann and Matthews during their reassigned duties?

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 09, 2008 11:23 AM (sI5Ho)

11 In related news, a new MSNBC/BBC/Al-Jazeera poll will show Obama has a lead over McCain in likely voters, 387% for the man of New Politics and the Future versus 2% for the bigot Republican. (The numerical total over 100% is a rounding error and not significant.)

Posted by: Robin at September 09, 2008 11:24 AM (AZGON)

12

s Bill Moyers the Olbermann of PBS?

"Like Olbermann and Fox News' Bill O'Reilly, Moyers is a political ideologue and propagandist. He is not a journalist. I spent a lot of time with him when I profiled him for Esquire magazine in 1989, and in 19 years, he has only become more political."

"...PBS of all news organizations should not be presenting him as a journalist..."

Posted by: Looking Glass at September 09, 2008 11:25 AM (/j9WY)

13 6:30? Tonight?? I wasn't expecting such a cosmic shake-up 'til at least 2012.

Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2008 11:26 AM (+dm+A)

14 In a survey of my upper west side neighbors Obama leads McCain by 3000%

Posted by: Ben at September 09, 2008 11:26 AM (GGeqy)

Rass has McCain still ahead, NBC polls are notorious for their over sampling of Dems, why the WSJ teams up with them is beyond my imagination.

Maybe they sampled cell phones today?

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 04:18 PM (2+9Yx)

Now back to reality, Rass has a dead heat with or without leaners.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 11:27 AM (hawOV)

16 If we didn't have Diebold in our pocket, I would be starting to get worried.

Posted by: JAFKIAC at September 09, 2008 11:28 AM (HqtPo)

17 Interesting how Obama's poll is "correct" while McCains is "wrong". Almost as it, dare I say it, "It was preordained". Can I get an "Alleluia"!

Posted by: GarandFan at September 09, 2008 11:28 AM (HLrE4)

18 Allow me to take a contrarian view. I'm betting it will predict a McCain lead. This whole "word changing" bit stems from the fact that these folks have been in denial for the past two weeks.

Posted by: BNJ at September 09, 2008 11:29 AM (vC1jc)

19 first estimates were 5,500 seems Nearly 10,000 people showed up to see McCain and Palin speak at the Golden Lamb in Lebanon this morning, Sept. 9, the Secret Service estimated. that's quiet a bit more

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:29 AM (VKmxM)

Funny that the Deciders are giddily hyping an as of yet still embargoed poll. I really want to see the sample size and demographics.

Also, when was the poll taken? I have always wondered why media polls always poll over a weekend, which NBC notoriously does?

I believe this is an attempt to buoy the hopes of Obama, since it'll be the topic of all the nightly newscasts, never mind every other poll.

Posted by: eddiebear at September 09, 2008 11:30 AM (wnU1W)

21 6:30 PM? The end of the World????
Is that EST?

Whats up?
Is that when they switch on that collider?

K

Posted by: Kestrel at September 09, 2008 11:31 AM (8IQ2U)

22 As I read over in the Corner (I know, I know) when Biden was commuting home to Delaware every night guess who was footing the bill?

They should'nt throw stones at Sarah it just makes her mad.

Posted by: MrsPaulsFishSticks at September 09, 2008 11:33 AM (PBGAP)

23 Polls don't matter unless I agree with them. This is true for nearly all values of "I".

Posted by: leoncaruthers at September 09, 2008 11:34 AM (SHR5S)

24 Interesting how Obama's poll is "correct" while McCains is "wrong". Almost as it, dare I say it, "It was preordained". Can I get an "Alleluia"! Much like those 2003 dead on LA Times polls that Arnold down by 10 you mean? ;-)

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:34 AM (VKmxM)

I guess this is the end. I'm glad they waited for the Broncos to beat the Raiders.

Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2008 11:34 AM (+dm+A)

Yeah, what do those idiots over at Gallup know about polling anyway? Here's a poll from the most trusted names in news... MSNBC/NBC

/sarc

Posted by: Fred R. at September 09, 2008 11:36 AM (xEOCY)

27 Lemme guess: Sample includes adults, not RVs or LVs; taken over the weekend; and weights for more Indeps than Reps.

Posted by: Just asking questions at September 09, 2008 11:37 AM (EQYOq)

28 Allow me to take a contrarian view. I'm betting it will predict a McCain lead. This whole "word changing" bit stems from the fact that these folks have been in denial for the past two weeks. -BNJ

I think I agree... the world is "changing" because they have been in denial and their previous polls have consistently showed Obama ahead--and of course they have to ignore other polls when promoting their own.

Now, since I just talked out of my ass about previous NBC/WSJ polls, tell me if I'm right about that bit. :-)

Posted by: DaveS at September 09, 2008 11:38 AM (z9gCU)

29 Easy. Just keep polling until you get a "random sample" that shows the results you want. No surprise NBC's poll is a little late.

Posted by: redherkey at September 09, 2008 11:40 AM (kjqFg)

30 I'm thinking they had Detroit press conduct the poll.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:41 AM (VKmxM)

31 North Carolina poll just out The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom): If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama? 58% McCain (R) 38% Obama (D) 2% Other 2% Undecided

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:44 AM (VKmxM)

32 WSJ/NBC apparently will have Obama ahead, Gallup has McCain ahead, and Rasmussen shows McCain slipping a point with it now being a dead heat.

Don't get cocky, morons.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 11:45 AM (hawOV)

33 USAT/Gallup could be an outlier. But every other current poll has it tied or McCain winning (Gallup tracker = JM+5). So the NBC/WSJ poll may also be an outlier. Big whoop.

Posted by: Karl at September 09, 2008 11:46 AM (zYqq7)

34 the whole damn thing is worth pasting---------- RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD. In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25. The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom): If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama? 58% McCain (R) 38% Obama (D) 2% Other 2% Undecided The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll Geography Surveyed: North Carolina Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008 McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/06/08 - 09/08/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the 900 adults, 783 were registered to vote; of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000. http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:46 AM (VKmxM)

35 And in other news, the Zero campaign has admited that the dis-enthusiasm gap has widened significantly.

Posted by: Cromagnum at September 09, 2008 11:46 AM (HWRBX)

Sample size: 3

Olbermann, Matthews and that thing that lives on Matthews' head.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at September 09, 2008 11:46 AM (B+qrE)

37 Bill Moyers walks into a bar with a parrot on his head. The bartender says "Hey, where did you get that jackass?" Moyers says, "That's not a jackass, that's a parrot." The bartender says "I wasn't talking to you, I was... Oh screw it." Then he decks Moyers with a two by four. Sorry, but I just hate Bill Moyers.

Posted by: George Orwell at September 09, 2008 11:48 AM (AZGON)

38 Yeah, the previous NBC/WSJ polls showed

8/18 Obama +3
7/21 Obama +6
6/09 Obama +6
4/28 Obama +3
3/25 Obama +2

The only way they can say "the world will change" is to show a McCain lead. Obama's people simply said that their poll doesn't show a 10 point lead... I'm expecting to see a 3-5 point McCain lead in this poll.

Posted by: DaveS at September 09, 2008 11:48 AM (z9gCU)

39 Kos diarists says a littler birdy (KO) told him it was 46 O - 45 Mc. Showing a 2 point post convention bounce.

Posted by: Judd at September 09, 2008 11:49 AM (BXHeE)

40 "the whole damn thing is worth pasting----------"

It might be worth pasting, but why violate the law, their property rights under the capitalist system we support, and moral decency by doing so?

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 11:50 AM (hawOV)

41 Heh. From the Kos diarist:

The NBC News Wall Street Journal poll is just about the most respected in the biz.

Right. If by "in the biz" you mean "by Keith Olbermann." I think the race is tied at the moment - the Gallup/USA Today poll was an outlier.

Posted by: Slublog at September 09, 2008 11:51 AM (R8+nJ)

42 Christoph You're right. I should have done that.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:53 AM (VKmxM)

43 shouldn't have done that, I meant. It was stupid.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 11:55 AM (VKmxM)

The NBC News Wall Street Journal poll is just about the most respected in the biz.

Anyone else have that running with a Barney Fife voice, sniff and fingers through the belt loops in their head?

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at September 09, 2008 11:56 AM (B+qrE)

45 Thanks, topsecretk9, for your reply. In the grand scheme of things, the ABC local will probably never even know about it, much less care, but since it's our side who usually votes for property rights, said rights being the basis of the economy we enjoy, I think the proper thing to do is make fair use where possible, even press the limits, but not lock, stock, and barrel.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 11:56 AM (hawOV)

Man, if Kos claims NBC is trusted, it has to be.

But I do agree that KO and his people are leaking the info to Kos.

Posted by: eddiebear at September 09, 2008 11:58 AM (wnU1W)

47 If the Kos diarist is correct, Halperin's post seems a bit hyperbolic.

Posted by: Slublog at September 09, 2008 11:59 AM (R8+nJ)

48 I heartily share Mr. Orwell's sentiments about that sucker of cock Bill Moyers. He is the epitome of the smug, arrogrant liberal crapweasel

Posted by: OregonMuse at September 09, 2008 11:59 AM (FO+YO)

49 Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 04:56 PM (hawOV) You are absolutely right, and I appreciate the reminder.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 12:00 PM (VKmxM)

50 Now there's no reason to replace Biden with Hilary while there's still time. Thanks for nothing, NBC.

Posted by: H. Dean at September 09, 2008 12:01 PM (1hnpW)

51 All according to plan

Posted by: Sith Lord Rove at September 09, 2008 12:03 PM (evdj2)

52 "You are absolutely right, and I appreciate the reminder."

It takes a big man to admit when I'm absolutely right.

:-)

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:04 PM (hawOV)

Rass has McCain still ahead, NBC polls are notorious for their over sampling of Dems, why the WSJ teams up with them is beyond my imagination.

Maybe they sampled cell phones today?

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 04:18 PM (2+9Yx)

Now back to reality, Rass has a dead heat with or without leaners.

DAMN CELL PHONES!!

On another note, I want everyone to know how much I have enjoyed posting here, since, I guess we will all be dead this time tommorrow.

Kemp

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 12:04 PM (2+9Yx)

Sorry, but I just hate Bill Moyers.

Me too. He's one of the original far-left tv hacks, but never gets called on it because he's soft-spoken and has a calm demeanor. And he's made a lot of money off of PBS. Sort of like if Keith Olberman switched to herbal tea and the government subsidized MSNBC.

Posted by: Maetenloch at September 09, 2008 12:04 PM (hn7Rm)

55 "On another note, I want everyone to know how much I have enjoyed posting here, since, I guess we will all be dead this time tommorrow."

2012, Kemp, 2012.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:06 PM (hawOV)

56 It takes a big man to admit when I'm absolutely right. :-) or woman :-)

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 12:09 PM (VKmxM)

I don't necessarily trust polls, but what I do trust are the campaigns own internals, they don't like to waste money. And the actions of the BO campaign scream bad internal poll numbers. They are completely panicking. They obviously see a sea change and not in their favor.

Posted by: Judd at September 09, 2008 12:09 PM (BXHeE)

58 Sorry I can't do a hyperlink since my buttons have disappeared. McCain 20 points over Obama in North Carolina. http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

Posted by: grc at September 09, 2008 12:10 PM (MYjln)

59 And he's made a lot of money off of PBS.

By this you of course mean the American taxpayer.

K

Posted by: Kestrel at September 09, 2008 12:10 PM (8IQ2U)

60 Rass is showing dead even?

Thank God the Big O overpolls.

K

Posted by: Kestrel at September 09, 2008 12:12 PM (8IQ2U)

61 "or woman :-)"

Indeed! Have I made a false assumption?

Since I like women at least as much as men (and in some ways a whole lot more), I'm happy to learn otherwise.

However, no need to call yourself a "big woman". Besides for every 10 women who thinks she's big only 4 actually are... and only 1 man will have the courageous stupidity to say so.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:12 PM (hawOV)

62 Buttons have disappeared, eh? What browser are you using? I noticed Google Chrome didn't reproduce the AoSHQ wysiwyg editor, but since I'm so used to hand coding, I didn't mind.

Anyway, if you want to put a link, the formula is:

<a href="URL (A.K.A. WEBSITE ADDRESS)">TEXT TO APPEAR</a>

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:15 PM (hawOV)

I am in NC. This means we win the governorship, McCory is a buddy of mine!

Guess I am off to Raleigh next year.

A moron in government, who'd a thunk it?

Valu rite in the governor's mansion? It could happen!

Kemp

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 12:17 PM (2+9Yx)

64 Fuck McCain. If he's not going to secure the borders, I'm not voting for him.

Posted by: LiveFreeOrDie at September 09, 2008 12:17 PM (h3WUv)

65 Relax...this early in the game the polls will fluctuate. In November Obama will lose. Dems aren't going to do nearly as well in Congress as the had hoped either.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 09, 2008 12:17 PM (1g+FW)

66 The massive poll shift is manufactured by the MSM polling outfits so that they can quickly return the polls to normal. It's their strategy on dealing with the Palin phenom. That way MSM can, A: admit that Sarah Palin made a big splash, which is hard for them to deny at this point, and B: attempt to convince the public that the splash is over, everyone is now utterly convinced all the rumors about her are true, and isn't she just trailer trash with a bad hairdo? Current polls say yes indeedy!

Posted by: EnochF at September 09, 2008 12:20 PM (VXm6y)

67 These still include weekend numbers. Wait for Thursday.

Also, ignore concern troll "Christoph".

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 12:23 PM (2z2WN)

68 I don't think anyone is manufacturing poll results. Really, if they give Obama a 5 point lead and he loses to McCain, they're just going to look stupid.

Rather, I think polling is tough to get right at the best of time, there are different models used which have both advantages and disadvantages, and technology is changing how people are reached, which throws the models out even from 4-years ago.

Or maybe they're manufacturing results, I don't know. But the key is to donate, campaign, talk to and write to friends, volunteer, get the vote out, even blog for our viewpoints, and not just here speaking to the choir.

WSJ/NBC's polling methods aren't things you or I have a lot of influence over however rewarding outrage over numbers we neither like nor agree with (but have absolutely no solid evidence to refute) feels.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:25 PM (hawOV)

69 Also, ignore concern troll "Christoph".

Would that be myself, the same person credited by Ace for pointing out McCain's 1-point slippage with Rasmussen leading to a dead-even result with or without leaners?

The person who's urging you to work to get McCain elected?

By the way, you can take the quotes out of my screen name. It really is my first name.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:28 PM (hawOV)

"68 These still include weekend numbers. Wait for Thursday.

Also, ignore concern troll "Christoph"."

Well, at least he has admitted his is voting for the "One", so he's not a closet troll and besides we need manageable trolls here.

I think "Tom" has changed his name.

Just saying, where is "Tom"?

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 12:29 PM (2+9Yx)

71 Also, ignore concern troll "Christoph".

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 05:23 PM (2z2WN)

You mean he was being the usual condescending prick he always is. I'm just assuming since I skip over his posts.

Posted by: polynikes at September 09, 2008 12:30 PM (m2CN7)

72 can't wait to see the internals on the NBC poll

Posted by: jp at September 09, 2008 12:31 PM (DFDtC)

73 I'm going to wait for the exit polls. Those are the ones that count, right?

Posted by: DrewM. at September 09, 2008 12:31 PM (hlYel)

74 MmI'm wwirught phere!

Posted by: Tom at September 09, 2008 12:32 PM (0n9wc)

"WSJ/NBC's polling methods aren't things you or I have a lot of influence over however "

speak for yourself, arrogant sucker of cock; I'm in your polz hackin your trendz.

Posted by: Obama sycophant at September 09, 2008 12:32 PM (EKMxC)

76 Whatever the poll results, the real head scratcher here is how MSNBC and Kos both managed to get their hands on the results ahead of time. It's a mystery, I tells ya.

But ultimately ... WHO FREAKIN' CARES ?! The Orlando Sentinel has just released a PPP poll showing McCain up 50-43 in Florida, and I've got me some excessive coordinated celebratin ' to do !!

Posted by: Just asking questions at September 09, 2008 12:33 PM (EQYOq)

77 I'm still pleased with the electoral math

Posted by: Sith Lord Rove at September 09, 2008 12:33 PM (evdj2)

78 or woman :-) --topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 05:09 PM

Hot.

Posted by: DaveS at September 09, 2008 12:34 PM (sYBRB)

79 I agree... we're over analyzing at this point... the trend is one of unbridled skullfuckery.

Posted by: DaveS at September 09, 2008 12:34 PM (sYBRB)

80 "Well, at least he has admitted his is voting for the "One", so he's not a closet troll and besides we need manageable trolls here."

kempermanx, give your head a shake.

To start with, I despise Obama. He believes in killing little babies, for God's sakes, even outside of the womb. And I support protecting them in the womb.

Second, he's a socialist and I'm not. Note my defence of property rights on this thread.

Third, he's weak on defense and I believe in a very robust military up to and including maintaining first strike nuclear capability, as I've discussed elsewhere on this site within the past 30 days.

Fourth, note my urging you to vote for McCain.

Fifth, show me a quote where I said I'm voting for Obama.

Sixth, note the widely-known AoSHQ fact I'm Canadian and ineligible to vote.

Seventh, I even used "eh" on this thread!

When you're done shaking it, come back to reality. Again.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:35 PM (hawOV)

81 There are going to be a lot of polls showing this thing close over the next couple of months. Partly because it's hard to poll, but also because it appears that party affiliation is changing as well.. You can tell how things are going by watching the media and the Dems. They are panic stricken, and getting worse. Still Repubs should treat the polls seriously and work accordingly, better safe than sorry...

Posted by: The Obvious at September 09, 2008 12:36 PM (1g+FW)

82 I thought the NObamacans were firmly disinterested in polls all of a sudden?

Did something change? Again?

Posted by: tree hugging sister at September 09, 2008 12:36 PM (RAqf7)

83 Shut up, Farva!

Posted by: runninrebel at September 09, 2008 12:36 PM (0n9wc)

84 Christoph, didn't say anything about "big", not sure what you are talking about.

Posted by: Topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 12:37 PM (VKmxM)

85 I thought the NObamacans were firmly disinterested in polls all of a sudden?

I find your lack of faith, disturbing

Posted by: Sith Lord Rove at September 09, 2008 12:38 PM (evdj2)

86 "Also, ignore concern troll "Christoph".

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 05:23 PM (2z2WN)

You mean he was being the usual condescending prick he always is. I'm just assuming since I skip over his posts. "

heh! smart kid.

Posted by: me at September 09, 2008 12:39 PM (c3H+i)

87 "Christoph, didn't say anything about "big", not sure what you are talking about."

I said it takes a big man. You said, "Or woman." Therefore, I saw this as the perfect opportunity to tease you.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:39 PM (hawOV)

88 And the desperation with which the media and the Kossites are flogging this thing tells you something. Fund raising has become difficult. Sounds sort of like a party trying to hold itself together. I could be wrong, but it certainly has all the earmarks of it and Obama knows earmarks.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 09, 2008 12:40 PM (1g+FW)

"If he's [McCain] not going to secure the borders, I'm not voting for him."

That battle was lost about 25 years ago. Try to keep up.

Posted by: Steve-o at September 09, 2008 12:43 PM (4gHqM)

Chris,

I am off to drink, TODAY you posted you were not going to vote for McCain. I'll search it later. I assumed you are not voting for our guy, who you voting for Barr?

For God's sakes, look at the time, it almost Six. Off to the Club!

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 12:43 PM (2+9Yx)

91 "There are going to be a lot of polls showing this thing close over the next couple of months. Partly because it's hard to poll, but also because it appears that party affiliation is changing as well."

Yes -- and note that the Rasmussen poll intentionally discounts out this possibility. So I would take that as the low-water mark of where McCain is.

Note also that every other poll goes on registereds, with two exceptions: USA Today/Gallup, which had McCain +10 on likelies (only +4 on registereds), and ABC/WaPo, which had McCain +2 on likelies (but actually down 1 on registereds). Previous results say: likely voters are the real voters.

Bottom line: McCain is winning.

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 12:43 PM (2z2WN)

Did you really say "Eh" . Shit what a give away. So you have no dog in this fight?

To the bar I am, AMF, Adios M F.

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 12:46 PM (2+9Yx)

93 So, uh ... am I the only long-timer who's basically stopped reading comments because of Christoph?

Posted by: Knemon at September 09, 2008 12:47 PM (KfWko)

94 I think its safe to say that judging by Obama and the media's reaction, and what they are doing and the excitement level around the ticket now. McCain/Palin would win the election if held today

Posted by: jp at September 09, 2008 12:50 PM (DFDtC)

95 "I am off to drink, TODAY you posted you were not going to vote for McCain."

I can't vote for McCain.

I'm Canadian.

Here I urge people worrying or, worse, gloating about polls to support McCain any way they can. I don't mention him by name, but since I say "our viewpoints" on this site, naturally I mean conservative, fiscally responsible, pro-life, strong-defence, etc.

Obviously the only one of those things I can do is express my opinion. I can't even donate to an American political organization, nor could I legally or morally do so through an American friend. Which is awesome, because I'm cheap. Besides, we're having an election up in Canada and, again, I will support the Conservative party and will probably volunteer for them. Again.

Enjoy your drinking! ... although I find it hard to believe you haven't got off to an early start.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:51 PM (hawOV)

Knemon....I feel your pain.

Posted by: Eleven at September 09, 2008 12:52 PM (7DB+a)

97 You know what else you can do Cristoph?

You can eat my ass.

Posted by: runninrebel at September 09, 2008 12:53 PM (0n9wc)

98 Wasn't the round bellied Olbermann an endangered species? I think the last one was stuffed and mounted very recently by some redneck cuz it crapped on his F-150

Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 09, 2008 12:54 PM (6L459)

99 "So you have no dog in this fight?"

The results effect me:

One, I care about human life in all countries. That means supporting pro-life causes everywhere, and opposing the evil of a culture which allows parents to contract for murder their own children often funded by government, and doctors to carry out the abominable act.

Two, I care about a strong economy: There's nothing more important to Canada's wealth and standard of living, other than perhaps fiscal discipline (which we have with a Conservative government in place) than a robust pro-trade U.S. economy.

Three, I care about my country's security and equally Australia's security for personal and family reasons. A strong U.S. military ably lead is vital for that.

And more.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 12:55 PM (hawOV)

100 "So, uh ... am I the only long-timer who's basically stopped reading comments because of Christoph?"

No, no you're not.

Posted by: me at September 09, 2008 12:56 PM (c3H+i)

101 Sorry if I am wrong, Christoph, but you appear to have Barack's Internet initiative written all over you.

Posted by: DCox at September 09, 2008 12:57 PM (2pT9a)

102 Four, nobody cares what you think.

Posted by: runninrebel at September 09, 2008 12:58 PM (0n9wc)

103 I can't see how any damned poll is going to have even a tenth of the effect that say, Kim Jong Il's stroke will. I call bullshit.

Posted by: Citizen Duck at September 09, 2008 12:58 PM (B0L2r)

104 I think the WSJ is just fucking with the democrat's minds. I would too...

Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 09, 2008 01:01 PM (6L459)

105 "Sorry if I am wrong, Christoph, but you appear to have Barack's Internet initiative written all over you."

Apology accepted. However, if you can read my words on this thread and conclude I support Barack Obama, I'm a bit mystified. I usually argue with fellow Canadians when they tell me the U.S. education system produces morons and that Americans are idiots.

But... am I wrong?

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 01:02 PM (hawOV)

106 Goddamn! Who broke open a bottle of stupid in here!?!?! This is the most idiotic thread I've seen in a while ... except for Sith Lord Rove. He cracks me up.

Posted by: Che Pizza at September 09, 2008 01:07 PM (SPSOE)

107 I usually argue with fellow Canadians when they tell me the U.S. education system produces morons and that Americans are idiots.

But... am I wrong?

No. Look how big Oprah's audience is.

Posted by: OregonMuse at September 09, 2008 01:07 PM (FO+YO)

108

107 Christoph wrote, "am I wrong?"

You're tedious. It's why I won't be reading your comments anymore.

Just as I expect people are sick of me commenting about impending destruction of the newspaper industry.

This one's from Instapundit.

Posted by: Looking Glass at September 09, 2008 01:08 PM (/j9WY)

109 So, let me get this straight. The last NBC/WSJ poll, from Aug 18, showed Obama 45-42, 3 pts ahead. See here: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080820_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf Now, it will show him 1 pt ahead, and that is good exactly why???

Posted by: Oy at September 09, 2008 01:10 PM (8pwyN)

110 It's almost like many conservatives on this blog can' t handle nuance.

They think that pointing out contrary evidence in the world is somehow evidence you're their opponent.

If you want somewhat chastened due to how wrong he was in 2006, but still extremely optimistic political analysis, the strata-sphere is the place.

AJ's very smart on science and military/intelligence matters. And he's sometimes right on politics. But he is ALWAYS optimistic on behalf of the Republicans politically.

And that's a problem, actually, not a plus.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 01:21 PM (hawOV)

111 "It's almost like many conservatives on this blog can' t handle nuance."

It's exactly like we don't like shitty shilling trolls with way more attitude than brains.

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 01:30 PM (2z2WN)

112 A day where you're not upset is like a day without sunshine, someone.

Posted by: Christoph at September 09, 2008 01:42 PM (hawOV)

113 Well, it's 6:30 Eastern and:

Obama 47, McCain 46

Within the margin of error.

OMG! My world changed!

Posted by: WalrusRex at September 09, 2008 01:48 PM (DVVXZ)

114 Looking Glass: "Just as I expect people are sick of me commenting about impending destruction of the newspaper industry."

And those people would also be the ones who would be sick of their own personal den of Play(boy/girl) Playmates (whatever one's preference) licking whipped cream off one's favorite body parts.

IOW, an army of zero.

Keep those updates coming.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 09, 2008 02:08 PM (sI5Ho)

115

Chris,

Back from the club, is it still cold as shit in Canada? I drove through it once, damn big place. Every fucking cross roads has a Subway.

What's with that? Don't frog women know how to make sandwiches?

I am glad to hear you are worried about security, how about getting your government to buy a few more planes, etc, so the next time they promise relief to some country, they don't have to rent a plane to get it there.

Chris, you ole Canuck, you have a new nick name, Chris, the Canuck, or our little northern friend.

So hockey, eh?

Posted by: kempermanx at September 09, 2008 02:51 PM (2+9Yx)

116 Christoph, when you see Brent Butt, tell him not to stop doing "Corner Gas."

(People have been asking my wife if she knows Sarah Palin -- because we lived in Alaska for a few years back in the '90s.)

Posted by: McGehee at September 09, 2008 03:19 PM (K13Au)

117 Just skip the whiney troll posts, he is a cocksucker, and a bad one at that, what with braces and cockbreath and all

Posted by: bob hussein dole at September 09, 2008 04:14 PM (tLuWS)

118

This should be the last time that McCain even gets close in the polls. He released an ad today claiming that a bill Obama passed (which required teachers to teach young children what inapproriate behaviors they should report, to protect them from child molesters) was intended to "teach sex education to children before they can read."

I'm sorry if it offends you, McSame, but I don't want my children molested. Of course if you want to see the effects of promoting ignorance over education, you only need to look at Palin's family.

McCain is just like Rove, but without honor - Rove never pretended to be a decent human being. Being a POW doesn't make you a good person. BEING A GOOD PERSON makes you a good person. Please go home McCain. Obama will finance the Veteran's benefits you've opposed for so long, so there's really no need for you to work.

Posted by: KarmaHauntsTheGOP at September 09, 2008 11:06 PM (gXgk5)

119 This should be the last time that McCain even gets close in the polls.

Indeed. Its McMentum time.

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