Ace of Spades HQ

April 30, 2008

Whoah: Hillary Takes Lead From Obama in NC According to One Poll
— Ace

Note, however, who was polled: Not Democratic voters specifically.

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolinas May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%
The results were:
Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%
Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Networks Hannity & Colmes, on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantages Matt Towery noted: The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.
I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

Thanks to CJ.

Posted by: Ace at 06:55 PM | Comments (39)
Post contains 197 words, total size 1 kb.

1 I have no clue as to the rules in NC, but is it an open primary?
I have seen some polls which show her closing, but I need a second or third poll to come out to establish a trendline.
And, is she really gaining in Indiana?

Posted by: eddiebear at April 30, 2008 06:58 PM (ROjYS)

2 And what is the track record of this poll in other races?

Posted by: eddiebear at April 30, 2008 07:04 PM (ROjYS)

3 As long as Clinton wins in Indiana and keeps it under a 10-point loss in NC, she can stay in it.

And as long this contest continues, the sparring continues and the negative attacks escalate.

Posted by: Bart at April 30, 2008 07:04 PM (Ub6Jo)

4 Uh oh... Time to start Operation Chaos Phase 2?

Posted by: someone at April 30, 2008 07:04 PM (2z2WN)

5 4:
Yup. I think Rush was a bit off target by calling a halt to Chaos earlier this week.

Posted by: eddiebear at April 30, 2008 07:06 PM (ROjYS)

6 What's an InsiderAdvantage? If you believe this poll I've got a bridge for you.

Posted by: Kid The Billy at April 30, 2008 07:06 PM (hoevv)

7 One thing Rush has in common with Rev Wright - they're entertainers, and they make more money when they're in the news.

Posted by: David Ross at April 30, 2008 07:11 PM (AvUHE)

8 "Yup. I think Rush was a bit off target by calling a halt to Chaos earlier this week."

Well, Rush put it into neutral in order to perhaps reverse course and start pushing Barry "Wright" Obama now. Gotta prop up the loser.

Posted by: someone at April 30, 2008 07:11 PM (2z2WN)

9 Er, that was inelegant. Check the link above, the pause is lifted.

Posted by: JB at April 30, 2008 07:13 PM (fJE/w)

10 Trenchant analysis, Kid.
Where do I write to subscribe to your newsletter?

Posted by: Nom de Blog at April 30, 2008 07:14 PM (5/uG4)

11 I move that if Hillary wins Indiana and comes with 5 points in NC we give her her exclamation point back.

Posted by: DrewM. at April 30, 2008 07:18 PM (hlYel)

12 Well, you told me Nom. I prostrate myself at the feet of the world's greatest analyst.

Posted by: Kid The Billy at April 30, 2008 07:20 PM (hoevv)

13 Doesn't Obama still have bazillions of dollars to spend in NC (and IN)? If he doesn't beat Hillary by at least 10 points in NC does that mean he actually loses (per the Hillary win rules in PA)? If Obama actually loses NC does he have to pull out of the race in the name of party unity?

Questions, questions.

Posted by: JorgXMcKie at April 30, 2008 07:43 PM (3fkIA)

14 Q: Why is it a good thing for Obama to win in NC?

A: Because Obama can then be painted as the "black candidate" or the "black people's choice" for president. Which is true. Blacks are voting for him because of his skin color.

So let Obama win in NC with a big A-A turnout. Then Clinton can say that she's the candidate "for all of the people."

Obama and his ball-washers can then scream "racist!" and the DNC will be in turmoil.

Posted by: Bart at April 30, 2008 07:56 PM (Ub6Jo)

15 "If Obama actually loses NC does he have to pull out of the race in the name of party unity?"

That would be the worst possible result for the Repubs this cycle, wouldn't it?

Posted by: someone at April 30, 2008 07:57 PM (2z2WN)

16 Someone, I disagree.

Obama out of the race would really demoralize the young voters, the KOSkids, the people who might consider Nader, and of course, many black voters. Those who like Hillary are pragmatic and are willing to chose a different candidate. Those who adore Obama, at least many of them, are not so pragmatic, and think Obama is their messiah.

Obama out is still unlikely, but it would really F up the dems.

Posted by: Gohuckyourself at April 30, 2008 08:04 PM (8jYMc)

17 Well, I meant that Obama *forced* out could be pure awesome and political civil war inside the Grievance Party.

But Obama *bowing* out -- with a possible grand coalition VP spot (though he'd be a fool to take it, as Clinton association would tarnish him as it did Gore) -- would mean forced unity until November.

Posted by: someone at April 30, 2008 08:09 PM (2z2WN)

18 Btw: oops, I missed today's news about Rush undoing the pause.

Posted by: someone at April 30, 2008 08:30 PM (2z2WN)

19 19:
so did I.

Posted by: eddiebear at April 30, 2008 08:34 PM (ROjYS)

20 Do you guys realize what a figure of ridicule he'd become if he accepts the VP slot? Uncle Tom jokes, beta male jokes, you name it. A younger black man as #2 under a white woman? Do you think America is ready for 4 to 8 years of Driving Miss Daisy jokes?

Posted by: JB at April 30, 2008 08:54 PM (fJE/w)

21 Check it: http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/blpic-hillarydrivingmiss.htm

Posted by: JB at April 30, 2008 09:16 PM (fJE/w)

22 someone, you're probably right... I always underestimate the dems. I just can't see them having that unity that I realize they probably will stomach. Hate is a powerful motivator.

Posted by: Gohuckyourself at April 30, 2008 09:30 PM (8jYMc)

I don't think either Hillary or Obama will deign to be VP for the other. Too much ego.

I just wanna see that marxist polesmoker Obama get his ass handed to him.

Posted by: along came Jones at May 01, 2008 01:41 AM (KOkrW)

24 The way Obama and Hillary split up the DEM vote, they will have to be running mates in the national election. But it will be a messy pair-up with two candidates who do not want to play second fiddle.

DEMS are heading for unavoidable chaos, this is why Romney bowed out early, set up the GOP with a front runner while they sit back and watch the DEMS rip themselves apart.

Posted by: GTBurns at May 01, 2008 01:42 AM (iInYK)

25 This poll is just so Obalaim to be the comeback kid.

Posted by: davod at May 01, 2008 02:30 AM (llh3A)

Sorry:

This poll is just so Obama can claim to be the comeback kid.

Posted by: davod at May 01, 2008 02:31 AM (llh3A)

27 Meanwhile, back with the other liberal running for president, McCain's wife tells Leno he's a lousy driver. Which suggests a new campaign slogan: "McCain - Four Years with America's Left Blinker On."

Posted by: V the K at May 01, 2008 03:15 AM (/0sRQ)

28 NC Voting rules. Independents can vote in ether party primary. No cross voting, D's can't vote in R, and R's can't vote in D. Registration is closed 30 prior to election. Election in Tuesday, not a chance in hell The Magical Negro will not win by at least 10 points. She's not spending the money on the preachers, aka "the walking around money" that greases the Black vote, sound like the O is. Easley inherited the old Hunt machine, but he has no money to piss away on Hilliary.

Posted by: Kempermanx at May 01, 2008 03:50 AM (ANRVq)

29 Tuesday should be fun to watch. Ace, if you liveblog, can I handle the reporting for Fox News? I'll make an offering, er donation, oh what the hell, a bribe if that will help.

Posted by: Dick Nixon at May 01, 2008 04:19 AM (/2xR+)

I now officially believe that it is time to MOVE ON! from all of this Obama-bashing. For a little while.

QUINNIPIAC POLL SAYS CLINTON OUT-PERFORMING OBAMA V. MCCAIN IN KEY STATES

Clinton leads McCain by 14 points in Pa., 8 in Fla. and 10 in Ohio. Obama trails McCain in virtual ties in Fla., Ohio, leads him by 9 points in Pa.

By Peter L. DeCoursey
Bureau Chief
Capitolwire

HARRISBURG (May 1) Presumptive Republican presidential nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona trails U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., by 8 or more percentage points in the new Quinnipiac Swing State Polls in the key fall election swing states of Pennsylvania, by 14 points, Ohio, by 10 points, and Florida, by 8 points.

Posted by: CJ at May 01, 2008 05:01 AM (9KqcB)

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