Ace of Spades HQ

July 31, 2004

Where's the Bounce?, Part II: Nerds in Paradise
— Ace

Okely-dokely. Yesterday I noted, following Politburo Diktat, that Kerry's much-vaunted convention bounce seemed, like Kerry's presence in the Senate, missing in action.

Some commentors noted that Rasmussen's polling that day only included some small fraction of interviews conducted during or after Kerry's speech.

That was a well-founded criticism.

But here's the deeley-oh, as the kids say. Now we have another full day of post-convention polling, and Kerry's lead-- which had stood at 3% -- has grown to a whopping one percent.

Was 48-45. Now 47-46.

Ummmm... isn't a "bounce" supposed to go the other way?

The theory that Kerry's best chance to steal the presidency is by way of an Invisible Man strategem seems to be buttressed by the latest numbers.

Bush obviously had a very good Friday night. We'll soon see if that was an aberration or something more substantial.

Posted by: Ace at 07:58 AM | Comments (64)
Post contains 157 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Also, Iowa electronic markets show Bush increasing his albeit small lead over Kerry immediately after the convention concluded.

Where's Mickey Kaus? We need a new Democrat Panic update.

Posted by: David at July 31, 2004 08:42 AM (AQT67)

2 Also, Iowa electronic markets show Bush increasing his albeit small lead over Kerry immediately after the convention concluded.

Where's Mickey Kaus? We need a new Democrat Panic update.

Posted by: David at July 31, 2004 08:50 AM (AQT67)

3 Dream on, suckas...The race is 58-41 IN KERRY'S FAVOR:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040731/nysa010a_1.html

Bye, bye, George...

Posted by: The Voice of Reality at July 31, 2004 09:16 AM (FJd9F)

4 My Dad always used to say it's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it and remove all doubt. Didn't Gore's disentegration began with his acceptance speech too? Maybe that's going to be the new pattern for the Democratic party until the socially liberal Americans loose all of the "Hate America" leftists and take their party back like we did from the radical conservatives a decade ago. The activist liberal message is so offensive to most Americans that they have given up being open and honest about their message and have resorted to hiding behind a smoke screen of plattitudes. But aparently Americans are not as stupid as Terry McFuckoff (sp?) and the DU moonbats think and can see through their white wash. Guess they'll have to try something different next time. But, of course, they won't. They'll continue to court the rabid leftists and let them drive their party's platform into the ground every four years.

Posted by: Dacotti at July 31, 2004 09:27 AM (QvMeW)

5 Uh...Voice?

If you are going to crow about a post-convention bounce among registered voters (traditionally a pro-Democratic group). I suggest you take the time and effort to ACTUALLY READ the article you quote (52-44 Kerry over Bush).

Posted by: David at July 31, 2004 09:30 AM (AQT67)

6 "Kerry’s four-point 'bounce' is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll."

Yawn.

Posted by: The Black Republican at July 31, 2004 11:35 AM (9VCzx)

7 When did it become the president's job to handle health care and stem cell research?

Hay-seuss marimba, if it wasn't for terrorism, I'd be voting Libertarian in protest this year.

Posted by: Joe R. at July 31, 2004 01:52 PM (DHwcf)

8 The Newsweek poll was adults over 18. There was no mention of the percentage of registered voters, let alone likely voters. This type of poll always skews left.

Posted by: Laddy at July 31, 2004 02:04 PM (1AgMU)

9 tVoR,

How many beers have you downed, dude? A 58-41 tilt for the gigolo stiff? Alternate reality is more like it. Geez.

Posted by: kelly at July 31, 2004 03:17 PM (Z1FeJ)

10 I have my very own itty-bitty petri dish of uninformed voters. Its called 'my Mom.'

"The activist liberal message is so offensive to most Americans..."

You ain't kidding.

Mom is a typical American; that is, an apolitical post war immigrant (she came here as a 12 year old in 1957). I am a first generation American.

Mom does not care about politics, but she votes in the presidential elections every time, anyway. She watched this Democratic Convention in 30-
second spurts between her favorite TV shows.

She said that Kerry looks untrustworthy and that the very sight of Clinton made her ill. This from a woman who only a few months ago told me dismissively that politics is meaningless, and its just rich people fighting with each other.

There is a 'gut feeling' out there among Americans that works for Bush and against Kerry. I have no doubts.

Bush in '04 by about 10%.
The only reason it will be that close is because the Dem base is motivated with extreme prejudice and they WILL go out and vote.

Posted by: lauraw at July 31, 2004 05:02 PM (b/7hi)

11 Bush in '04 by about 10%.
The only reason it will be that close is because the Dem base is motivated with extreme prejudice and they WILL go out and vote.

lauraw, I would really enjoy cyber-seeing you eat digital-crow. Let's make a deal to meet here second week in November and rehash, OK? It'll be fun!

It's funny how our anecdotes our so different... I got a whole fam-dam-ily of life-long republicans who will be voting democrat for the first time in their lives... YEAH!! (except dad, he's hopless and doesn't know which side his bread is buttered on)

Posted by: at July 31, 2004 05:46 PM (u5W1o)

12 Hey, voice of reality: let not him that girdeth on his harness boast himself as he that putteth it off.

Posted by: Smack at July 31, 2004 06:46 PM (CBDWx)

13 lauraw, I would really enjoy cyber-seeing you eat digital-crow. Let's make a deal to meet here second week in November and rehash, OK? It'll be fun!

(snip)

Posted by at July 31, 2004 10:46 PM

That would be easier for her if you weren't anon.

Hey, I know 17 zillion gajillion people who are voting Republican for the first time this year!

Posted by: Joe R. at July 31, 2004 07:53 PM (DHwcf)

14 I don't think making this election a referendum on getting down on our knees before Chirac is really a winning issue for Kerry. All Bush has to say is, look, these are the same scumbags who led the vote against Israel's wall. Are they really an ally? Game. Set. Match.

Posted by: Mark at July 31, 2004 07:59 PM (uvpsw)

15
Hey, I know 17 zillion gajillion people who are voting Republican for the first time this year!

Yeah. Sure! I have a big smile on my face knowing that you are full of it.

I know that I'm telling the truth. And I don't need to leave my name or email to prove it. I have talked to SOOOOO many dissapointed _traditional_ conservatives (many in my own family and their friends) who are SO pissed about the deficit, the war, the pandering to the religious right, and believe it or not - the tax cuts for the wealthy in the middle of this mess, that they will be casting a vote for Kerry this year. Don't misunderstand - they don't like him much. But they are so completely and utterly disgusted with GWB and what has become of their party since the rise of Newt Gingrich - that are going to clench their teeth and vote Democrat. And I couldn't be more thrilled!

I'm not the black and white picture of a lefty you all might imagine... although I disagree with most of their positions, I have a great deal of respect for republican politicians like McCain, Hutchison, Hatch, Snow, etc. - tell you what, I'll trade you Zell Miller for all four of those. These are honorable servants of our country not ideological self-serving jackasses like Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Bush.

I wish _some_ of you would wake up and realize that politics is way too important to treat it like you do your favorite friggin football team that you've pledged allegiance to since you were in fourth grade. Bush is a delusional, mentally challenged, grandiose jackass and he needs to be defeated. Tell me one single way this country or world is better than it was 4 years ago... If you say it's safer -- I'm sorry, you're full of shit. If Bush had gone after Bin Laden and Al Qaeda and stayed course I would support him and feel safer. But instead he went to Iraq and wasted out money, dammit. And we are MORE at risk than we were before. Talk about liars - do you sincerely think GWB be has been a uniter (like he promised) instead of a divider (which he most certainly has been)?

Anyway, we'll see, won't we?... November's just around the corner. Peace.

P.S. My Voting record -- 84: Reagan, 88: Bush, 92: Perot, 96: Clinton, 2000: Gore (grudgingly at the time - sure wish he was in office now...), 2004: Kerry (would prefer Dean)

Posted by: TAL at July 31, 2004 10:55 PM (u5W1o)

16 Wow. I need an ultra-absorbent towel to wipe the condescension off my monitor.

Posted by: kelly at August 01, 2004 03:32 AM (dRghM)

17 TAL, I realize it's difficult to read with your head stuck up your ass, but have you not been paying attention to the economy for the last several months? The Left's pathological hatred of Bush will be its undoing, and you can take that to the bank.

Posted by: zetetic at August 01, 2004 06:00 AM (Wg+KD)

18
TAL, I realize it's difficult to read with your head stuck up your ass, but have you not been paying attention to the economy for the last several months? The Left's pathological hatred of Bush will be its undoing, and you can take that to the bank.

Yeah, I pay attention. Tell you what, you just keep talking about how great the 'recovery' is to with your traditional conservative friends... that's the other lie that is pissing them off :-)

Posted by: TAL at August 01, 2004 06:32 AM (u5W1o)

19 TAL, we are supposed to take you seriously when you claim you voted for Reagan and Bush, yet would have preferred Dean over Kerry? There is no ideological consistency there (Reagan celebrated the free-market and Dean is a hardcore socialist), and you are simply one of the sheeple that can be herded around by the media.

Posted by: Mark at August 01, 2004 06:54 AM (uvpsw)

20 You're an idiot. Go look at Dean's record as a Governor - he's a fiscal conservative and always has been. Sheep herded by media? Pot. Kettle. Black.

But anyway - I was only 18 when I voted for Reagan. Mistakes where made.

Posted by: TAL at August 01, 2004 07:01 AM (u5W1o)

21 Right...it has nothing to do with Bush...you have just become more nuanced since your teen years...

And regarding whether Dean is a socialist....how in the fuck can someone who wants to nationalize nearly 20% of the U.S. economy not be considered a socialist? He also suggested huge reregulation of media. He ran as a statist/socialist/appeaser, regardless of his supposed record for moderate policies in Vermont.

Posted by: Mark at August 01, 2004 07:15 AM (uvpsw)

22 I just don't bother listening to anyone try to claim "Truth" when he can't conjugate the verb to be. These are the Democrats who voted for Pat Buchanan in West Palm Beach. Sure, they answer the question "correctly" when asked by a pollster, but can they fill out a ballot on Voting Day? Then try to point this out, and they usually list their postgraduate degrees: proof of theorem.

Posted by: The Black Republican at August 01, 2004 08:46 AM (9VCzx)

23 Meanwhile, back at the original topic:

USA Today/Gallup/CNN also finds a negative bounce for Kerry:
pre-convention: Kerry 47%, Bush 46%
post-convention: Bush 50%, Kerry 46%

"But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention."

What thay don't add is the name of the 1972 Democratic candidate: McGovern.

Posted by: David at August 01, 2004 09:48 AM (AQT67)

24 How does one argue with someone who keeps his fingers in his ears and steadfastly refuses to accept reality? Answer: One doesn't. TAL, you're an idiot. And you're not worthy of any more of my time. Buh bye now.

Posted by: zetetic at August 01, 2004 09:57 AM (Wg+KD)

25 The writing is on the wall (an appropriate reference, seeing as Dubya thinks he's got a hotline to God. Tool):

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Bye, bye, George...don't let the Oval Office door hit you in the ass on the way out

Posted by: Bush is going down, down, down at August 01, 2004 11:04 AM (FJd9F)

26 I does appear that Nuancy Boy and running mate Breck Girl are a fizzle. Which would go to prove that we're on God's side.

Cordially...

Posted by: Rick at August 01, 2004 11:14 AM (UGkAC)

27 All but the Zogby and CNN polls are worthless, as they polled registered voters instead of likely voters.

CNN gives Kerry a meaningless one-point lead. Ever heard of something called the margin of error?

As for Zogby... Well, November's still a way off yet. Nice try though.

Posted by: zetetic at August 01, 2004 11:26 AM (Wg+KD)

28 Rick, I'm going to have to dispute your reasoning. If "God's side" equals "the side that is going to win the election," how do you explain eight years of Bill Clinton.

IMO, no matter who wins in November, the American people will get exactly what we deserve.

Posted by: Rick at August 01, 2004 11:31 AM (i0Svk)

29 You redneck Republicans are so cute when you're lying to yourselves and rationalizing bad news and stuff...oh wait, you're not cute at all.

Posted by: Bush is going down, down, down at August 01, 2004 11:32 AM (FJd9F)

30 At least we're able to rationalize, you dumbass moonbat. Troll go bye-bye now.

Posted by: zetetic at August 01, 2004 11:35 AM (Wg+KD)

31 Don't feed the trolls, people. We'll ALL know what's going on January 20th, one way or the other.

Posted by: Smack at August 01, 2004 11:55 AM (CBDWx)

32 Um, Zapata, or whatever your name is, don't you mean "reason" or "ratiocinate" or something like that? Thought so.

Nope, I'm not going away. Every time some redneck clown from a site like this comes a'trollin' at a site I like, I will be back to troll here. Turnabout is fair play, right? Oh, and fuck George Bush. Kerry/Edwards in 2004.

Posted by: Bush is going down, down, down at August 01, 2004 11:58 AM (FJd9F)

33 Traditional Conservatives who are opposed to tax cuts, who aren't part of the religious right, who are opposed to the war on terror,who think Kerry ( the most liberal Senator of the last 20 years ) is going to be better on the deficit. TAL if you're going to make shit up about the other team you should at least try to make your fables plausible.

1. Conservatives support tax cuts cause they spur economic growth, not because they are some article of conservative doctrine. Deficits always follow tax cuts because Congress must be retrained to restrain themselves. Unless you want to fight them on spending bills, but that just makes enemies for yourself and in a time of war no less.

2. Whatever your feelings on the religious right they are a large part of the Republican coalition and have been since Reagan. Republicans have come to recognize that they must have their needs adressed or they won't come out to vote and consevatives need those votes. It's a bit like the Dean wing of the Democratic Party only this time they will cost the Dems the election and the "Fundies" will win the election for the Repubs.

3. There is not a single Republican or Conservative in America that will vote for John Kerry to reduce the deficit. Because every person alive knows he won't. He'll raise it.

4. Going after Al Qeada. You will never support Bush in his foriegn policy. Iraq is part of the War on Terror. Conservatives understand this, it's lefties that don't.

5. Cheney and Rumsfeld could not be more "traditional" in their conservativism. They are long standing Republicans with wonderful reputations and that's why we were all just thrilled when he put them in his cabinet.

6. Lastly, you really should look a little deeper in the actual poll. Bush has an 80% approval rating among Republicans. This meme of revolting Republicans doesn't wash. Head back to your Minister of Propaganda at the DU and report your pathetic results.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable at August 01, 2004 12:13 PM (cTMxl)

34 One last thing, troll boy: since you can't seem to read my name I assume you're illiterate and are having someone slightly smarter read this to you. Suck on this, pal:

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

(clip)

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Kerry trailed Bush 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

Posted by: z at August 01, 2004 01:27 PM (Wg+KD)

35 Drat. That last one was me.

PIMF!!!

Posted by: zetetic at August 01, 2004 01:28 PM (Wg+KD)

36 Let's see, Republicans = rednecks. That reminds me of something...OH yeah! Bigotry. Can't be--leftists are just the most loving people ...

And someone mentioned this turd, TAL, has his fingers stuck in his ears.

Yup. We just had a run-in with an identical hate-filled boy-man on Malkin's site. I ended up writing something like the following:

TAL is a nihilist perception moron. Without being consciously aware of it, these people remake reality moment to moment. You can completely box them in rhetorically, and they will tell themselves (and then believe) that your argument never existed. Inconvenient facts and conclusions get filtered out or hidden behind perception barriers. Because of this, they seem to talk at you, not to you.

This is all because they are limbic system dominated, i.e., reptilian. Everything revolves around primitive considerations, territoriality, herding, fear, agression, rage, in-group/out-group identification, etc.

As with any reptilian, TAL is highly concerned with posturing in front of "the enemy." He struts, preens, squawks, postures, and expands his scaly reddened throat pouch, while making gutteral sounds in order to mark territory, like some hissing lizard claiming a spot on the sunny rocks.

Like I said, they're completely unaware of all this, and the perception filtering takes place mostly sub-consciously. Thus, when you hold up an undistorted mirror like this to them, they'll look at themselves for a nanosecond and then forget all about it, filter it, block it out.

It never happened.

I wonder what it's like to be a slave to an older part of the human brain. It must be like living life permanently as a child (emotionally) with all the uncontrolled emotional extremes and a child's immature, overblown narcissism.

Posted by: rdbrewer at August 01, 2004 04:02 PM (2LE6C)

37 Nope, I'm not going away. Every time some redneck clown from a site like this comes a'trollin' at a site I like, I will be back to troll here. Turnabout is fair play, right?

In other words, we can just start ignoring your comments entirely. Thanks for the advance warning.

Oh, and fuck George Bush.

So I take it you're in favor of gay marriage?

Posted by: at August 01, 2004 06:25 PM (CBDWx)

38 Well, I'm a traditional conservative and I love tax cuts. So do the subcontractors who are remodeling my home. The local Toyota dealership is apparently in favor of them...I asked.

I may be "wealthy", so I might be the target of many who want me to lose those tax cuts. I'm not really sure, because no one who says "we gave tax cuts to the rich" will ever tell me how much money you have to have to be rich.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 01, 2004 07:25 PM (kU9au)

39 Ok, first of all, there's no such thing as a conservative who opposes tax cuts.

Secondly, there's no such thing as a conservative who prefers Kerry to Bush.

Third, the debates will decide the election. The next six-eight weeks will be interesting, but the bottom line is America's couch potato, face-stuffing, undecided dumbshit voters are going to base their decision on what they see on TV between Kerry and Bush.

And Kerry is horrible when he speaks on TV. Watch his campaign go down in flames in October.

Bush will win by well over 5% and the electoral college will be a wipeout.

Another Northeastern liberal bites the dust.

Posted by: Rick at August 01, 2004 08:38 PM (7Id9U)

40 "someday, i hope to be rich enough to vote republican"

well, i gross about 27 g's a year, and my taxes were reduced a bit, so i guess that that makes me rich. i guess the line is somewhere around 25k/year, which is funny because a few thousand less than that and you're officially "poor", and entitled to welfare.

odd, i don't feel very rich. i mean, i'm doing okay for someone my age, but i'm not like ketchup tycoon rich, or trial lawyer rich.

next time i get a letter from my bank whining that i spent more money than is in my account, i'm just going to write them back and let them know i'm rich, so it's ok. after all, us right people control the world, right?

Posted by: francisthegreat at August 01, 2004 08:51 PM (s6yTA)

41 As I recall, Democrats were pretty well convinced they would do well in 2002 as well, that is, until the election results came in and they were totally wiped out by the GOP.

As far as the convention goes, the lineup of Carter, two Clintons, Kennedy, and Sharpton was enough all by itself to sink the Democrats' chances this year, but the craven Kerry speech probably sealed the deal.

Kerry has "loser" written over every fiber of his being; the only thing he seems to be good at is marrying money, and that won't be enough to win a Presidency.

Posted by: thoughtomator at August 01, 2004 09:39 PM (NBip6)

42 thoughtomater, I also remember the Democrats shocked refrain after the 2002 elections...."We didn't get out message across!" God that was so funny.

"lauraw, I would really enjoy cyber-seeing you eat digital-crow. Let's make a deal to meet here second week in November and rehash, OK? It'll be fun!"

When Bush wins, you will not have the stomach to come here and rehash, TAL. You are a liar, and I can tell by your bullshit post about how your Newt Gingrich relatives are Bush-haters. RIGHT.

If I see you here, you will be hiding under a different name. Because fundamentally dishonest people - such as yourself- are gutless by nature.

Posted by: lauraw at August 02, 2004 05:47 AM (ey6RE)

43 "A domestic centerpiece of the Bush/GOP agenda for a second Bush term is getting rid of the Internal Revenue Service, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

The Speaker of the House will push for replacing the nation's current tax system with a national sales tax or a value added tax, Hill sources tell DRUDGE."

Imagine. JUST IMAGINE. No IRS.

But it won't happen- this is the kind of issue, like Welfare reform, that Republicans can only accomplish while a Dem is president.

Posted by: lauraw at August 02, 2004 06:05 AM (ey6RE)

44 Don't get excited, Ace, the election is going to be VERRRRRY close. I know, because I heard it from the same people who told us the California recall was going to be a squeaker, Howard Dean was a shoo-in, & Kiera Knightley can act

Posted by: jeff at August 02, 2004 06:10 AM (I4xD9)

45 Kiera Knightley can act

Hey, now!

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 02, 2004 06:30 AM (YYb1o)

46 To listen to some Democrats out there, you'd think not only is Kerry a shoo-in but they're going to regain the Senate and maybe even the House! And in all honesty, if I only followed the mainstream media I'd probably think that too.

Posted by: zetetic at August 02, 2004 06:33 AM (ahqnM)

47 Ace is getting trolled?

What's next, an Istalanche? A Pledge Drive? (real ones that is)

Well, boss, you must be doing something right to get noticed by the Soros-funded frothers.

How's it feel, troll, to be supporting two people who are richer (with their wives included) than the ENTIRE COUNTRIES? Anarchists/leftists supporting (and being supported by, thanks George Soros) B as in Billionaires. Will wonders never cease.

Posted by: hobgoblin at August 02, 2004 08:45 AM (2da3S)

48 "Instalanche"

"richer than [ ] ENTIRE . . ."

*sigh*

Posted by: hobgoblin at August 02, 2004 08:47 AM (2da3S)

49 well, i gross about 27 g's a year, and my taxes were reduced a bit, so i guess that that makes me rich. i guess the line is somewhere around 25k/year,

I gross around 23K, and I'm a staunch Republican. Go figure.

Posted by: Brian B at August 02, 2004 10:01 AM (OnnW3)

50 The only thing I go by is TradeSports.com. Last week, for the first time, GWB slipped below 50%. Now after the convention he's up almost 4 points to win.

Posted by: Joan of Argghh! at August 02, 2004 12:04 PM (v5daR)

51 That "rich enough to be a Republican" canard has been around since Christ was a corporal. The fact is--and that fact has existed since the mid-60's at least--the GOP donor base is middle class. It's the Democrats that rely on fat cats, over and above the extorted money they get from their union bosses.

Here's a breakdown with proof: http://www.opensecrets.org/pressreleases/DonorDemographics02.asp

Cordially...

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