September 08, 2008
— Ace The PDF. (Lifted off Real Clear Politics.) Ninja'd! Even as I was writing this, the WaPo sent me the link to their web article. Probably easier to click on that, but my quotes are from the PDF.
Another huge shift (or, actually, the huge shift driving most of that headlined huge shift): Age-Old Racial Fears Stirred as McCain/Palin Begins Stealing Everyone's White Women Away.
John McCains taken the better boost from the presidential nominating onventions, eroding Barack Obamas advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.Some of McCains biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which hockey mom Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCains decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obamas favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin thats one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.
Overall, WaPo/ABC puts it at McCain/Palin at +2, 49-47 among likelies. Among registered voters, Obama has a 47-46 edge; neither is significant. But McCain got a 4-point bounce.
Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges the question of his experience, the definition of the change hed bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.Notably, far more people see Obama than McCain as in tune with the economic problems Americans are experiencing but in trust to handle the economy the gap between the two has narrowed to a slim 5-point Obama advantage. That speaks to McCains advantage on experience, expressed, for example, in his 17-point margin in trust to handle a crisis.
California Dreaming: Anyone watching FoxNews knows McCain is opening campaign offices in California and is considering -- or at least pretending to consider -- making a major play for California.
Currently they're down 12.
More: From the article now:
McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can best handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs. McCain also has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that voters had been divided on since the outset of the campaign.And on the dominant issue of the election, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama's advantage to a mere five points, the smallest it's been this year. McCain has also drawn even with Obama on energy policy and has sharply narrowed Obama's lead on dealing with the federal deficit and handling social issues such as abortion and gay civil unions. He's also turned around what had been a narrow Obama edge on being seen as the "stronger leader." The candidates remain rated roughly evenly on taxes, while McCain continues to hold a huge lead on the question of who would make a better commander in chief.
In addition, Obama still leads on the change question, but McCain/Palin have narrowed that considerably.
Those who are "very enthusiastic" for the ticket have doubled. (The power of The Two.)
Again, the bulk of this is due to a massive shift in opinions of white women, or as the MSM now knows them, "incorrigible racist bitches and ungrateful painted street-whores who ought to stay in the kitchen and out of the voting booth."
The Eagleton Scenario: Just mentioning it. It was all the rage a week ago. Gun to my head, I'd say it's still a 50/50 proposition.
I mean, this woman is just embarrassing the ticket. The only real question is whether it would be more embarrassing for McCain to dump this non-performing candidate.
Posted by: Ace at
12:36 PM
| Comments (84)
Post contains 705 words, total size 5 kb.
And believe me, you don't want to see Obama get mad.
Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 01:06 PM (hawOV)
Posted by: Stankleberry at September 08, 2008 01:08 PM (5x5Ao)
Posted by: ArandomPerson at September 08, 2008 01:08 PM (2PwTK)
Posted by: Blue Falcon at September 08, 2008 01:09 PM (FZ1+o)
Posted by: adamthemad at September 08, 2008 01:09 PM (kIjlp)
You're at the wrong place. www.hotair.com That's what you're looking for. Ask for AP. He'll steer you in the right direction.
Posted by: Editor at September 08, 2008 01:09 PM (GTpOW)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 08, 2008 01:13 PM (6L459)
Ace,
while the switch in women is big check out the difference in experience between BHO and Palin. There top of the ticket only gets 48% while our bottom ticket gets 47%.
Palin gets more tepid reviews, however, on the question of whether she has the experience necessary to assume the presidency if that became necessary -- only 47 percent of voters think she does. But experience remains a sizable obstacle for Obama, at the top of the Democratic ticket, as he remains stuck around 50 percent on the question of whether he has the experience required to serve effectively in the White House; voters now divide 48 to 48 percent on his qualifications.
this means the media's attack failed and instead of hurting Palin it hurt BHO.
got to love it...
Posted by: unseen at September 08, 2008 01:17 PM (aVGmX)
Posted by: unseen at September 08, 2008 01:20 PM (aVGmX)
My guess is that our side of the aisle better not go bat-shit insane for Palin like some other political groups I could mention did for their candidate...
Posted by: joeindc44 at September 08, 2008 01:27 PM (QxSug)
There, fixed that for ya.
Posted by: kbiel at September 08, 2008 01:35 PM (eq32V)
Where the hell is the catch?
The dem ground game.
Check my hash, yo, I'm no troll.
But McCain's going to have to be polling better than this to have a chance of coutnering the dem turnout on election day in the battle ground states.
Posted by: jdub at September 08, 2008 04:37 PM (hUStE)
I don't want a President that's IN TUNE WITH the fucking problems! I want a President with a clue about solving them!
But I'll settle for John McCain.
Posted by: Stoop Davy Dave at September 08, 2008 04:49 PM (KbJRn)
Posted by: Nom de Blog at September 08, 2008 04:50 PM (14k+t)
Posted by: Kestrel at September 08, 2008 05:02 PM (gBnKJ)
Posted by: TFB at September 08, 2008 05:03 PM (a1oRP)
Posted by: Potosi Joel at September 08, 2008 05:03 PM (TPRbZ)
And believe me, you don't want to see Obama get mad.
Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 05:03 PM (hawOV)
Posted by: mbruce at September 08, 2008 05:05 PM (h/5U0)
Posted by: bgates at September 08, 2008 05:08 PM (CFjXn)
Posted by: Just Another Lurker at September 08, 2008 05:10 PM (1hnpW)
Posted by: erik at September 08, 2008 05:10 PM (hblvb)
Somebody must have leaked that Obambi's cock is actually only an inch and a half long, fully erect. That would explain why all those white women have suddenly abandoned him, as well as why Excitable Andi has backed off on little Trig. The Queen of Daytime Slanderous Hysterical Blog Posts really hates felching a guy whose dork he can barely hold onto during the "fun."
Posted by: Sharkman at September 08, 2008 05:10 PM (UioS4)
White women who formerly supported Obama are at home and too busy with the kids to vote instead of callously running for office.
Posted by: Just Another Lurker at September 08, 2008 05:12 PM (1hnpW)
They must be really cocky. And really full of contributions. I'm an ex-Dem and the reason I am voting for them is because they are both reformers--that's why he picked her and not some other well known woman. They have the RECORD. Obama has talk. I couldn't care less where Sarah shops or how she wears her hair or how she prays--I want someone to stop the madness in DC.
She did what Arnold said lied about doing. That's how a real governor acts.
Posted by: PJ at September 08, 2008 05:17 PM (GVdvM)
Penn +2 Obama
Florida tied
OH +7 McCain
Colorado +3 Obama
MI +1 Obama
From Rasm. via Real Clear Politics
Posted by: Judd at September 08, 2008 05:34 PM (BXHeE)
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters
have a 3-point error margin.
211 African American respondents out of a total of 1,133. By my math, that's 18.6%. African Americans do not represent almost 19% of the overall population by any estimate that I could find. Most sources put them around 13.5%. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something about polling samples, but that seems like a pretty large oversampling of a rather monolithic voting bloc.
Posted by: army of dog at September 08, 2008 05:37 PM (80uFC)
Posted by: K T Cat at September 08, 2008 05:39 PM (J44gg)
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population)
That means they took a larger sample of blacks in order to get more accurate numbers on them, then multiplied the result by a correction factor when they combined it with the rest of the data. It's legit.
Posted by: lmg at September 08, 2008 06:10 PM (A/vgC)
Posted by: Admiral Akbar at September 08, 2008 06:12 PM (KpEAZ)
Posted by: Mastiff at September 08, 2008 06:13 PM (SkyLZ)
Let's remember, it wasn't a Republican that implemented the "Eagleton strategy." As voraciously as the Obama camp is looking for something to destroy Palin, you can bet that they're devoting comparable resources to finding (or creating) something on Biden. It's going to be extremely difficult for Obama to regain his edge. Being the Messiah is one thing; but once people start to think you're not looking quite so messianic lately, there's really nothing you can do to messiah yourself up again. Unless . . .
Mark my words: Biden is going DOOOOOOOWWWWNNNNN!!
Posted by: DrZin at September 08, 2008 06:32 PM (JwSM5)
>
>
Posted by: Arthur at September 08, 2008 06:35 PM (5dNhb)
McCain/Palin definitely are in play here in California, even up here in the north, near the Bay Area.
Don't forget, we elected a Republican Governator...
Posted by: Uncle Jefe at September 08, 2008 06:47 PM (+3fAP)
Posted by: army of dog at September 08, 2008 06:49 PM (80uFC)
Coming, this November....
He came to steal our white women. Now they're stealing his election.
In the feel good event of the year, Sarah Palin stars in....
Johnny's Choice
Posted by: Warden at September 08, 2008 06:58 PM (4+Hc+)
Ahm, Mr. Ace,
I beg to differ with you on the following comment....
The Eagleton Scenario: Just mentioning it. It was all the rage a week ago. Gun to my head, I'd say it's still a 50/50 proposition.
I mean, this woman is just embarrassing the ticket. The only real question is whether it would be more embarrassing for McCain to dump this non-performing candidate.
You know that you are tempting fate by calling out the one known as Sarah Palin, aka - TAARNA the TAARAKIAN. You need to sit you ass down and watch Heavy Metal again...refresh you memory on what TAARNA did to those that opposed her...she may put a performance on your ass that you won't forget for sometime.
Sarah Palin is TAARNA!
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Posted by: Neil at September 08, 2008 09:06 PM (qjqx3)
Posted by: Scott in OC at September 08, 2008 09:33 PM (RW0mF)
Posted by: David at September 08, 2008 09:35 PM (UEoYe)
I saw an "expert" on NBC trying to spin the polls into no-big-deal. He blathered on and on about margins of error and that polls are really inexact because they vary from day-to-day. I'm sure it would have been the same analysis if Obama was ahead.
HAHAHAHAHA! I can't believe I said that.
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