1 True.  ... and there's that 6% who lie.

2 Well, if McCain were leading by four, the election would be over because it would be clear that folks had managed to see through the smoke and past the mirrors...

3 Where is the poll that determines how much of the population is we todd it? I'm starting to think the South Park estimate of 25% was too low.

4 Sofa king we Todd it.

5

Don't forget about 10% (or more) of the McCain supporting population that is just pretending to vote for him because otherwise their racist friends won't invite them to their exclusive country clubs!

I actually read that at DU.

6 I didn't even know McCain was still in the race. This is promising news!

7 That card is awesome

8 Who's McCain?  I've never heard of that guy.  He Irish or somethin'?

9 I, for one, have to keep my mouth shut about politics while I am in the office. My career would be jeopardized if I publicly supported McCain. I wouldn't be fired, but too many people would just assume I was crazy or ignorant. Pretty pathetic, I know.

10 Ace: "So I'm baffled". Quite so. Why is the trend here to trash polls that are discouraging and show respect or wonder for polls that are encouraging, even when they are outliers to whatever extent? Oh- I forgot- this is Never Neverland.

11 Better pay attention, polls are always acurate. lolololololololol

12 This shift is no more real than last weeks shift was real.  My guess about the difference without having looked? Check the polls internals and see the break down of who they talked to as compared with last week's. The polls will go up an down keep working...be of good cheer.  Pay the NRO and the Standard and the rest of the panic-mongers no mind.

13 Pssst... Ace... (whispering) it's time to bail on the bailout before your reputation is irreparably damaged. Just sayin'.

14 I, for one, have to keep my mouth shut about politics while I am in the office. My career would be jeopardized if I publicly supported McCain.

I wouldn't be fired, but too many people would just assume I was crazy or ignorant.

Pretty pathetic, I know.

So I'm guessing you work at Goldman-Sachs?

15

It's more than just FAIRLY positive news.  Polls are improving, Dow is up, mark-to-market being reformed, Palin sounded good on Hewitt, in two days VP debate will be on TV, by end of which Biden will be in fetal position in a puddle of his own piss.  The tide is turning.

16 That nine-point lead was an outlier.  I think this is pretty close to the true state of the race.  It's tight, we are not out of it at all, and nobody should be throwing in the towel.  

17 I said yesterday the market would be up HUGE today - even after all the bullshit freak-out nonsense that went on yesterday. The market was down 777 points. 777! That's the mizahfuckin' number of Christ Jesus! For the sake of the Makers balls, everyone needs to relax. This "crisis" shit is overblown. I for one am unwilling to follow the lame duck President into his long overdue well deserved retirement. Yesterday, Republicans were blamed for the big drop. I'm sure today the Democrats will get the credit for a "pending, inevitable deal". If the Republicans have any semblance of nuts left they will not move to pass this shit, but dig in deeper.

18 #15  in a puddle of his own piss

... moaning under a wet blanket... "make it stop!  please make it stop!  She hurts!"

19 So on Jooish holidays, financial crises magically vanish?

Good to know!

Joos, is there anything they can't do?

20 I am also praying that Granny's stupid stunt yesterday does not wear well with the voters and they recoil in disgust at the thought of this incompetent twit being in charge for the next 4 years. 

21 Nate Silver of 538- who despite wearing an I heart Obama pin on his sleeve has gained cred all across the blogospheric, has pointed to how such polls can arise: by flawed assumptions. But his ability to point to those is critically limited by the degree to which the pollster in question is open with its methods. Yesterday he had a great piece up on a poll from a formerly rational pollster that made McCain appear to be strong in battleground states, based on the assumption that the number of voters over 65 has grown at a faster rate than those between 18 and 34 than the US census and the 2004 voting mix suggests is even theoretically possible. You can make a poll tapdance to Stairway to Heaven if you do shit like that.

22 #17 I concur.  They need to dig in.

23 I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Nancy Pelosi's little rant/bailout gambit did Obama no favors.

24

Heh.  Great image Ace. 

Eh, the public polls are just another bit of political madness.  Fun to chew on either way inbetween other major new events.

Anyway, the election is a battle to the end.

25 I don't just blame Democrats... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLUbb2DUYGk

26

Oh, and my take on the polls?  I think the magnitude of the credit mess is sinking in and people rember McCain's getting out in front of it first.

That may be playing a role.

Plus I think people are begining to notice Obama's nasty tactics.

Huge VP debate thursday.  Just like the convention speech.

Come on that damn loop thingy, don't fail us now!

27 @Obama just sounded smoother and better at defending it

There is your answer.  America hates the stench of this bill and Obama is smoothly out there pumping it up.

28

Where is the poll that determines how much of the population is we todd it? I'm starting to think the South Park estimate of 25% was too low.

I used to base my estimates on the people I work with.  Since we are all conservative engineers, I used to get the false impression that most of the people in this state (Oregon) were pretty smart/reasonable.  4 idiot governors later I now realize that it is better to base the retard level in this state on a sample from the local grocery store instead of where I work.

The grocery store sample shows that at least 45% of Oregonians are stark raving retards.  I know there are other Oregonians who post here; would you guys say that 45% is an accurate estimate?

29 Did Bush ever lead in the polls in '00 and '04? I can't remember. I'm guessing that no matter what, the media will always report that Teleprompter Jesus is leading, even if he had only 1% of the vote. (Polls don't matter. Only election day does.)

30 East Bay at 3: Factoring in AoSHQ, Powerline, Hot Air, Malkin...carry the 4...yup: It's precisely 100% of registered Republicans plus 80% of registered Democrats and Independents, so 87%. Might be a little higher with failed GOP vote stealing scheme in Ohio and the one under appeal in Wisconsin.

31 That nine-point lead was an outlier.  I think this is pretty close to the true state of the race.  It's tight, we are not out of it at all, and nobody should be throwing in the towel.  

Posted by: rockmom at September 30, 2008 07:29 PM (iZqUY)

 

 

rockmom,

would you adopt me?

you're always the voice of reason over on HA and here

32

I know there are other Oregonians who post here; would you guys say that 45% is an accurate estimate?

Oh, at least 45%.  128% in just my family alone.  117% if you count me, my mom, my dad, me, and my family.

Obama/Pudding Cup '08!

33

The grocery store sample shows that at least 45% of Oregonians are stark raving retards. 

You're lucky. I live in the metro Detroit area. My guess is at least 65% of the voters in this area have the mental capacity of a gerbil on crack. And I have now insulted the gerbil.

34 Mccain camp has a new site up (via Byron York)

it really pretty cooly designed

http://www.johnmccain.com/palintruthfiles/

the "web of connections" - well done

35 #19 Bart

Well, there is swimming and camping and appliance repair. Oh, my Dad would never barbeque he always had someone else do it for him.  Other than that my people are good.

Le Shanah Tovah!

36 President Dukakis, President Gore, and President Kerry did not return our calls regarding pre-election polling numbers.

37

Might be a little higher with failed GOP vote stealing scheme in Ohio and the one under appeal in Wisconsin.

Of course, because, to a Democrat, a party whose political fortunes have been largely dependent on massive, organized, ubiquitous vote fraud campaigns since Kennedy, insisting that people prove -- via means that, oh, about 100% of eligible voters have -- that they're, you know, eligible to vote is a "vote stealing scheme".

With all those plain and clear meanings to rewrite into your New Dictionary, where do you fascist asshats find any "me" time?

38 Oh, and Ace: the previous WaPo/ABCNews poll that showed the 9% Obama lead was "registered voters", not "likely voters". So to the extent you see some reason for optimism, I see you comparing horseapples to crapmallowsandwiches. Both this and the last poll are severely limited by the failure to poll any non-land line cell phone only types, by undersampling from the under 35 crowd, by undersampling both blacks and hispanics- thus totally discounting part 3 of the Obama ground game, which is to hold their hands to bring them to the polling stations.

39 Polls are fun.

40

Uhm, Ace:

"Supposedly the public thinks Obama won or at least tied the election. "

Something wrong here -

Either you're talking about Al Gore, or you mean "the debate".

eh?

Oh, and it ain't over till it's over.  I think that McCain has played the Palin novelty factor nicely: She's appeared before the press just enough to quiet the MSM dogs, but  not enough to wear out her public attention too far from the election.

The appearances on Hugh Hewitt and Limbaugh are warm-ups for the debates in a friendly environment. Great idea by the campaign.

She'll get a high viewership on the debates and then for the last 30 days she's going to be real visible.  Look for "Sarah Sixpack" with 401k concerns just like yours to be everywhere after the debate is over.

 

 

 

 

41 They only poll the people who are stupid enough to answer the phone at dinner time.

42 Hey- I see topsecretk9 joined in from tom maguire's fire hyrdant. Could be a compliment to Ace; could be that maguire's place has been using too pure a grade of Commentary heroin.

43 ^
seattle stupid?

44

McCain down 4 is surprising- I know this is unlikely but...

I'm praying that people can link Barry to those two human pustules, Barney Frank and Nan Pelosi who are polluting my tv screen.

An unholy trinity to destroy traditional America- if even a few people can see this wreck coming they may prefer the RINO

45 I'm comforted in the fact that the dog feels the need to discredit this poll.

Seems a bit desperate.

Fun indeed.

46 The Great Orange Satan is going to host a wienie roast and beer-a-thon to accompany Thursday's debate. FoxNews offered to provide Doocie as one of the wienies but Markos imposed a "must be bigger than a Vienna sausage" entry rule.

47 Ohio now allows registration and voting on the same day. Can't help the donks any more than that in stealing an election. And the only stolen elections I am aware of was 1960 by Kennedy and recently the gov. in Washington. But, I tell you, I hate to come into a thread and see dog shit all over it.

48 Markos imposed a "must be bigger than a Vienna sausage" entry rule. Guess that excludes you, huh?

49 Hey, did y'all catch that "I'm voting democrat " video in the sidebar?  It's pretty cute.

50 The sample is a few points less Dem and a few points more Rep, which combined with MoE issues, accounts for the difference.

51 When is Sarah going on Rush? Did I miss something?

52 I am SO looking forward to the Friday morning ticker tape parade celebrating Sarah's victory over Biden and the rules of English grammatical construction. Oh darn- I'm booked for a discretionary root canal exploration with no anesthetic- and me with 100% dentures! Ah well, I'm sure y'all will have just as much fun without me.

53 The Great Orange Satan...

Who? You mean Hillary "Orange Pantsuit" Clinton?

54

Well, if McC will GET BACK on the offense and start campaigning, we could kick some ass.

Hard to win the battle at home on the phone while "The One" is flying all over the country preaching salvation.

We need to step it up here John.

Kemp

55 BTW, Diderot's dog might be interested to know that both WaPo polls had figures for both registered and likely voters.

56 I am SO looking forward to the Friday morning ticker tape parade celebrating Sarah's victory over Biden Well, don't get too excited. Friday morning is the date you are scheduled at the vet to be neutered.

57 JavaJoe at 45: Actually, I discredit every single poll but the official one on November 4. Pre-election polls are always best suited for trash talk- but never more than this year, with the spawning of enough polls to choke the Birmingham sewer system and few if any able to both account for the non-land liners, the blacks and hispanics and avoid going outlier twice a week. The only person who knows what Americans are thinking right now is Cheney, because he's go everyone wired, and he's very quietly packing his bag in preparation for a quick plane flight out of DC and off to Casablanca.

58 53 The Great Orange Satan...

Who? You mean Hillary "Orange Pantsuit" Clinton?


It was kinda funny to watch the guy post 10 comments trying to goad somebody while everybody in the thread just ignored him.

You can go back to ignoring him...seriously...you aren't missing anything.

59 the "up by 9" was an outlier, that's the deal

if obama's up by 6 or 7,  both polls are within the statistical margin of error

60 When is DD going to figure out that the shit he posts is unreadable and people skip most or all of it?

61 Kemp, To paraphrase John Winger in "Stripes", I hope that McCain is just pacing himself...

62 Once people start seeing the Mao-style gearings that are coming out of the woodwork, people will start changing their minds.

63 Well if you factor in the racists in this country that means McCain will win by 18.

At least that's what I'm told.

K

64 Diderot may be interested to know that his dog is an idiot.

65 Karl at 55: And they said ...what? If you don't tell, Karl, I'm afraid I will have to. By the way, Karl: http://tinyurl.com/4s43d5

66 Kemp at 61: Unfortunately, he's running as hard as he can. I'm still waiting for Intrade to bring on a bet on when he strokes out.

67 Some Guy at 64: My master let's on to check my pee-mail twice per day. Ace and his Tools are always reliable for giving off a powerful smell.

68 The previous WP poll with 9 points was likely voters...like this one...not registered. Now will someone please help me out. I haven't seen action in 27 years.

69 When is DD going to figure out that the shit he posts is unreadable and people skip most or all of it?

When he reads all the way through a post and gets the feeling that nobody has read his posts.  You gotta skip the retort posts too.  Reading and not responding is not an option either.

70 Next time I'm buying a nice guinea-pig.

71 Yet you still find the need to discredit the poll.

I didn't see the same attention to detail when Obama was up 9.

Keep up the good work and please, continue. It's good to see some concern for the 'followers' they can't let a poll go unchallenged. Well at least one that doesn't reflect what we all MUST think

Lest we poll otherwise.

72 It doesn't matter if The One We Have Been Waiting For has a four point lead in the popular vote.

If McCain holds his current states and picks up the teetering Colorado, he wins.

http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

73 Random insult posts (e.g. #68) are cool tho.

74 Yeah, Karl. but did they count the dead voters. O!'s got a big lead there, too.

75 Don't go in there
You best beware

And please don't feed
the fucking trolls!



K

76 70 Next time I'm buying a nice guinea-pig. Posted by: Diderot at September 30, 2008 08:25 PM (fG7J5) - Jerk, you spend enough time focusing on the other end. Can you give me at least some attention?

77 Whatev Diderot.  Whether or not your boy is President, without treating the problem of ACORN and the type loans that are given to unqualified buyers, this problem will just continue to fester.  The media might be on the story by the next election.  Regardless, Barry O is a one hit wonder IF he pulls it out this time. 

78 Did someone say something about Barry pulling out?

79 I'm too lazy to read all the other comments, after all they are words from morons

But is it possible that Republicans tend to do worse in weekend polling, and now that the week is on, Mccain is doing a bit better?

Just a thought.

80 Man, if McCain actually wins, I am going to troll every leftie website so hard I'll probably get lynched.

But it'll be worth it.

81 "If McCain holds his current states and picks up the teetering Colorado, he wins.

http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml"

Or, based on that projection, McCain loses Colorado but picks up New Hampshire...and we have a 269-269 tie, and the election goes to Congress, and all the 2000 shit looks like a picnic by comparison.

82 Posted by: Diderot's Ass at September 30, 2008 08:36 PM (MhkWv) Well well well, my arch-nemesis, we meet again! The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but a learner, but now I am the master!

83

Well they didn't give out the weightings this time, but I'd guess McCain's improvement is mostly due to the democrat advantage being somewhat more realistic than +16 (with leaners) like last poll.  Unfortunately, all the poll notes is McCain is up 4 amongst independents and 13 amongst white women so it's hard to say what's behind it.  That could be due to real improvement for McCain or just the side effect of polling fewer democrat white women and more republican white women.

84 McCain Trails? We went Moto-Xing there once.

85 Oh crikey. The libs are already setting the stage to cry voter fraud - from a (cough) 'lifelong republican' who donated 1750. to Dean in '04. Talk about dumb. http://tinyurl.com/42vrj6 http://tinyurl.com/4b362v

86
Not mpressed.

Teh bazement kat alwaze winz.

87 Is it just me or are there more trolls than normal lately? Or are they just the grounds crew here to lay down the astroturf?

88 you two need to get a room....no wait....

89 I think those freaky singing kids scared some people away.

90 Polls are imaterial.  This election has been decided since June.  Hillary exposed Obama's inexperience, his associations with Rev. Wright, William Ayers, Father Flegler, and Tony Rezko during the primaries. Her supporters see Obama like conservatives see him, and 28% of them (up from 21% in June) say they're going to vote for McCain. Just as an example, this amounts to 350,000 votes in both Ohio and Pa. moving from the democrats to McCain. In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 140,000 votes and lost Pa. by  130,000. The point is that the democratic party is split and cannot possibly win the electoral vote.  Prediction:  McCain 355 electoral votes Obama 183. We'll see on  Nov. 5th. 

91 maybe its 270-269 and the Northern Maine district goes McCain.

then the Dems contradict their past positions, and question the constitutionality of a state splitting up its electoral votes.  Then SCOTUS rules 5-4 to Obama, which makes it 269 tie, then we go to Congress for the picnic

92  ...in two days VP debate will be on TV, by end of which Biden will be in fetal position in a puddle of his own piss.

Nonsense. No matter how much Sarahcuda pummels him, and no matter how obviousl it is to the public, you can be sure Biden will come out of it thinking he was the big winner.

Dude's an idiot.

93 I can fix the market, all we need to do is corner the frozen orange juice market from the Dukes.

94 May I interrupt this thread to say that Al Davis is batshit crazy?

95 If you Cant Make it, I suppose You CAN FAKE IT! Needing a loan? NEW CAR?? Credit Guidelines TOO DAMN TOUGH? You Are Not Alone! Let us help! Goto www FAKEPAYCHECKSTUBS com !!! Proven Effective for ANYONE Needing Credit,Car or Home refinancing

96 Fer Chrissakes, here in the suburbs of San Francisco most Republicans are in the friggin closet, afraid to even whisper about their silly notions in public. Whenever I'm out somewhere I just let it rip, and I do get the silent nods of approval from many of them. Oh and another thing, Billy Joel and Springsteen can kiss my white ass high and deep, just two more Obama cocksuckers.

97 No fan of Diderot or his dog, but even less a fan of his comments being dropped.

98 In the Demo primaries, the "Bradley Effect" (Obama polling 5-6% above his actual vote) was greatest in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

99 Or, based on that projection, McCain loses Colorado but picks up New Hampshire...and we have a 269-269 tie, and the election goes to Congress, and all the 2000 shit looks like a picnic by comparison.

Awesome!  Lieberman caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate and Cheney cast the tie-breaker for McCain.

My dick's harder than Chinese Arithmetic just thinking about it.

100 Lieberman caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate and Cheney cast the tie-breaker for McCain.

Alas it goes to the House.

101 I think the defeat of the bailout is helping the R's big time.  Could even be a game changer.  Public hates the concept of a bailout, even if they know we have to do it eventually. 

People's lasting memory will be of 2/3s of the Rs standing up to Bush AND Pelosi.

My wife, who's barely aware there is an election this year, just happened by the TV and saw the news of the vote and she immediately said "They blocked it?  Wow, good for them!"

How can that not help?

102 94 May I interrupt this thread to say that Al Davis is batshit crazy?

As a Steeler Fan I have known that for 30 years, The media is just done sucking his Balls know && realize this

103 Here's a real poll:

Every one who thinks their country sucks, raise your hand.

104 98 In the Demo primaries, the "Bradley Effect" (Obama polling 5-6% above his actual vote) was greatest in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

AMEN UNCLE BEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

105 Alas it goes to the House.

Dear God save us.

K

106 Seriously, now...the race is of course closer than the press will tell you.

BUT...we do have an enormous, gigantic problem with voter fraud.

ACORN and the dems are going to cheat their asses off.

Ohio is going to be 108% Obama and the press will nod and say, "yes, of course."
Wisconsin was stolen in 2004.  It will be again.

The GOP had years to deal with this.  Did nothing.  Asshats.

107 Ben,
At least Al Davis fires people.  We can't even get rid of dead weight in Congress let alone real criminals.

108

The polls will continue to be complete crap.  Yeah, they crap weasels will lie about anything.  They will give McCain momentum (not too mush) just to yake it away and show everyone Hussein is the better choice.  Then comes the election and Repubs played politics in enough states to win the election while the 'zero' wins 92% to 7% in a few states he already has in the bag. 

Dumbshit polls used to support dumbshit politicians. 

What plus or minus are the giving for the 'Brady Effect'?  (I coild be wrong on the name of it, but it's when people won't say they'll vote against the 'zero' to avoid sounding racist.

Race riots if McCain wins.  Flush the country down the toilet if Hussein wins.  As it turns out the dems are just faster at ruining things than Repubs.

This election sucks donkey balls.

109 106 Seriously, now...the race is of course closer than the press will tell you.

BUT...we do have an enormous, gigantic problem with voter fraud.

ACORN and the dems are going to cheat their asses off.

Ohio is going to be 108% Obama and the press will nod and say, "yes, of course."
Wisconsin was stolen in 2004.  It will be again.

The GOP had years to deal with this.  Did nothing.  Asshats.

Did it in 2000 & 2004 & they lost NEXT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

110 That sounds pretty cavalier.

111 I didn't even realize McCain was still running for office. I'm stunned at these results.

112

Another option is that the Electors from Utah go "faithless" and break for Romney. They then make demands on both parties before going into the College.

"The Prophet Joseph told us that he saw the day when even the Constitution of the United States would be torn and hang as by a thread"

113 That last sock be me.

114 Woory Much AP??http://tinyurl.com/3thovh

115

Amendment 12 - Choosing the President, Vice-President. Ratified 6/15/1804. Note History The Electoral College

The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;

The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

 

SO- electoral college tie goes to the House, each state has one vote. This would favor McCain.

116 Voter fraud is a big problem, and maybe a few states got a handle on it.  Mich, and Ohio passed a voter ID law recently, along with a few other states (Indiana?).  So maybe some of the fraud will be mitigated.  Only time will tell.
I still expect McCain to win.  And when he does I am going to call every single local TV station, and newspaper in my area and laugh at them.  Over and over.

K

117 Race riots if McCain wins. I've been through a lot of race riots over the years. Ironically, it's black own property that get's destroyed, stolen, and burned down the most.

118

It goes to the House in an electoral vote tie, but the Senate decides who the Vice President is! How fun would an Obama/Palin administration be?

BTW, polls are not news, they are released to make news. Remember the democrats thinking they had won early election day? Ace was ready to cut his own throat.

Kinda like the last few days, now I think about it...

119 Race riots if McCain wins?

Let them torch their property. I'll buy it for cheap and turn each of them into a Roscoe's Chicken and Waffles store.

120 No fan of Diderot or his dog, but even less a fan of his comments being dropped.

Yeah?  His first comment here was to mock Charleton Heston  on the day of his death.

So you think the guy really adds something to the debate here, huh?  What, with his incomprehensible, off-topic walls of text?

Fuck trolls.  I don't need their perspective.  If someone isn't arguing in good faith, why reward their troublemaking?

Mock 'em and be done with it. It's funnier and it denies them what they're seeking.  Win-win.

121 WTF?

122 OT - But I just caught the DNC infringing content from one of the blogs I contribute too.  A picture of John McCain playing craps is in their latest commercial and we hold the copyright.

123 Jones, it's unclear if a presidential contest in the House could be resolved by January 20.  Remember that the Vice-Presidential race goes to the Senate, so...
Lieberman votes with the R's, Cheney breaks the tie, and Palin becomes Acting President until the House can make an ultimate decision.  Maybe.  The open questions are whether it's the outgoing or incoming Congress that's involved in all this, and how the 12th Amendment interacts with the 20th Amendment, which moved up Inauguration Day from March to January.

124 Dammit.  I forgot to send the email home that I received from somebody in the office.  It was "the Obama hair cut".  When I saw that in my email, I just about flipped a wig.  Still trying to decide if I should send back a "thanks, but I'm for McCain/Palin" answer or simply ding them for sending political crap around the corporate email.

But, you guys would have loved the hair cut. I'll try to get it on the blog tomorrow.

It's way better than this one, even because the guy actually had Obama's campaign insignia inscribed on his head and colored:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/planalp/2444058261/

125 If this shift is real -- and I don't know if it is -- what could account for it?

I have a neighbor, a hardcore democrat to the bone, who commented yesterday that the crisis was of the democrats manufacture and had nothing to do with Bush.  Sample size of one, and a Hillary fan, but I'm betting there's quite a few others who still have a few neurons firing and reached the same conclusion.

This crisis might be moving wavering Hillary fans off Obama.

126 If you enjoy poll numbers, you're bound to enjoy real numbers: We just went over $10 trillion in national debt- almost double what we owed when GWB took over. Heckuva job, Bushie!

127 Four years ago at this time the MSM was telling us that Kerry was up 15 points.  Obama's toast.  Connect the dots, does he seem to be running the kind of campaign a winner would run or using the tactics that smack of a desperate politician?

128 126 If you enjoy poll numbers, you're bound to enjoy real numbers: We just went over $10 trillion in national debt- almost double what we owed when GWB took over. Heckuva job, Bushie!

GIVE ME HEAD TILL I'M DEAD CUM ADDICT!!!

129 Dow Jones: Jan 19, 2001 = 10,587.59; Sept 30, 2008 = 10,365.45 Euros per US dollar: Jan 19, 2001 = 1.068; Sept 30, 2008 = 0.695 DJ adjusted to Euro: Jan 19, 2001 = 11,307.54; Sept. 30, 2008 = 7,203.99 Change: - 0,493.55. Georgie? You GOP girl!

130 The grocery store sample shows that at least 45% of Oregonians are stark raving retards.

Oregon is one of those unfortunate states where 50% of the population is of below average intelligence. I'm lucky to live in a state where 50% of the people are of above average intelligence.

131 Walmart refuses my Euros, damn.

132 Some points: First, most polls aren't that accurate. I lean towards Rasmussen for long-term trends, and few others.

Second, the methodology of most polls is suspect, usually by over- or under-sampling certain groups.

Third, even if Rasmussen gives X a lead of Y on a given date, it's a national poll, and we allocate EC votes by state.

Finally, the GOP has been in power for eight years now, and they'll catch at least some flak for the economy no matter who's to blame.

BTW, for laughs, try checking out various futures games and predictions on the presidential election...

133 Weird. It's eating my comments.

Oct 3 2004 Bush-Kerry polling:

Bush's lead of 8 percentage points before Thursday's debate evaporated in a survey taken Friday through Sunday. Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry are at 49% each. Independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 1%

134 132 Some points: First, most polls aren't that accurate. I lean towards Rasmussen for long-term trends, and few others.

Well you would be 3 to 4 days late this Election Cycle Just like Rasmussen has been on every bounce this cycle

135 Not sure I trust the polls. Maybe they are right. I certainly see a possibility that Obama wins. Of course, I thought Obama won the debate, and there's still not a chance in hell I would actually vote for him (save the doomsday option: McCain drops Palin, I vote Obama). Maybe he's enjoying the benefit of people not actually having to be about to vote for him tomorrow. On the other hand, I've known too many old white cracker Democrats and limousine liberals to believe that a big chunk of them don't give a big fat smile while praising Obama, but are going to vote McCain or Nader when they get to the poling place. First African-American president, who is also of mixed African-Arabic descent, and his name is Barack Hussein Obama? Sorry, I've know too many Democrats who would happily vote for a Clinton or a Kerry that ain't gonna vote for a Hussein Obama. No matter what they tell the pollsters.

136
I'm still waiting for the RNC ad that says:

Since 2001 we've survived 9/11, the DotCom bust and two wars.  In 2006 the voters decided to put the Democrats back in charge.  Since then, the price of gas has doubled, housing values have crashed, and the economy threatens to meltdown.  Now, the only answer the Democrats have is to spend more of your money..

We're the Republicans, give us another look.

137 The good news is that's 10 trillion in Bush dollars. If it were 10 trillion in Clinton dollars, hoo boy, we'd been in some real trouble, because adjusted to Euros, that would be like double. Then we'd really need a bail out!

138

Heckava job, cocky! Nice and hard.

 

Sincerely,

 

Diderot's Dog

139

Connect the dots, does he seem to be running the kind of campaign a winner would run or using the tactics that smack of a desperate politician?

Stalinist is as Stalinist does.  He'd be pulling this goonsquad crap if he was up 20 or down 20.  It's all he knows; he's a borderline sociopathic, amoral, by-any-means-necessary cookie-cutter Alinskyite.

I think it'd be fascinating for someone to catch Barry off guard by asking him what he wouldn't be willing to do to become President.  My guess is that he'd uhm and uh for a while before throwing out a list of people that he'd be willing to murder for the prize.  Kind of like he responded to the question about what programs he'd be willing to cut to pay for his all-glory-to-Marx prorgrams by throwing out a laundry list of spending items he wanted to increase funding for.  He's just got that whole eggs-to-omelettes thing hardwired into his demented psyche.

The country is on the brink of the abyss because one confused, soft-headed pussy has irreconcilable mommy and daddy issues.  Let's hope the idiot electorate doesn't push us in because he didn't stutter (much) for a whole 90 minutes.

140 Sometimes, the dog just gets lonely

141 Heckuva job, Bushie!

Suggest reading US Constitution.  Specifically Article 1 section 8

142 I watched Couric interview Governor Palin tonight: "I'm not going to solely blame all of man's activities on changes in climate". That's the first I've heard it put that way. Can someone explain?

143 DD: No. Go away, dummy.

144 You're dyslexic?

145  I know there are other Oregonians who post here; would you guys say that 45% is an accurate estimate?

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at September 30, 2008 07:39 PM (5GNS+)

 

 

I have lived here for 58 years......that number might be a little low.

146 Men have rock hard cocks, dd. They sometimes cause global warming with those rock hard cocks. But you know that.

147 Dr Medical 135: Ah, the Tools beloved Bradley Effect - for which most pollsters are indicating precisely no evidence in support in this election cycle. I credit sites like AoSHQ for killing off the Bradly Effect by encouraging overtness.

148 (That said, if McCain/Palin led by 4, it would be monstrous and I'd be declaring the election over. Why the difference? Shut up, that's why.) No, I'll tell you why that WOULD be true. Because Democrat support is ALWAYS overstated by the media, the polls, and even what people tell pollsters, and in this case, its between 4-6%. Unless Obama leads by more than 5% on election eve, he will more than likely lose. If McCain is ahead any ANY amount, we're talking GOP landslide and downticket bloodbath for the Dems. I'm still mildly optimistic about McCain's chances. When people get behind that curtain, throw all that hopiness and changitude in the shitter. Pay attention to the men behind the curtain.

149

Nitally Lions!

Fannie Mac and Freddie Mae!

FDR went on TV in 1929 and bought a bunch of houses and stopped the Depression!

57 states!

My opinion is above my paygrade!

I am Neil Kinnock and this my story!

I am the Banking Committee!

I passed a federal law that was passed before I was even in the Senate and whose state-equivalent law I voted against!

79 out of 86 is the top 50%!

Violence is breaking out like syphilis in Georgia and I condemn syphilis bad!

57 states!!!!!!

150 I remember Kerry leading big right up till the end as well.  I thought that might have been orchestrated.
Then when it got close they changed the numbers to reflect reality, so the pollsters wouldn't be outed as totally in the tank.

K

151 Kestrel♠ at September 30, 2008 10:29 PM (MhkWv)

Kerry was up 2 the day before and wound up down 2 at the end.

Obama's turn out, especially in the big cities, is going to be a crusher, though.

152 Bush was leading in the polls similar to the way Obama has been leading this year up to Election Day.  In spite of his consistent leads though a few thousand votes in Ohio was all that separated us from a President Kerry.

This is an electoral election, not a popular one.  McCain has to bring Virginia and Colorado back into the fold or grab up an alternative swing state that hasn't gone red since Reagan or whenever.  He can do it but he's got to fight like a mad mofo to get it done.

153 Can one ever trust any polls taken by the WASHINGTON COMPOST?

154 I've been really impressed by the House Republicans lately and credit them with a lot of the recent gains. Hope they don't lose their nerve on Thursday.

155 lorien1973 at September 30, 2008

Sorry, I was referring to Kerry's polling that whole summer.  Maybe he did not lead by much, but all I heard was "Kerry's up in the polls!" every day.

Then as it got closer to election day, it started to narrow.  I don't know if people are really that dumb as to be "undecided", or if they are like me and lie to every pollster that calls.  And yes they call me quite often.  About 3-5 times an election cycle.  Maybe because I still have a landline.

K

156 ngggggg... mrrrrrrr.... gnaaaaaa...

Okay, that joke's getting old.  (I think I'll maintain zombie status for now though)

docweasel, I agree, but I keep seeing the response to that (even from Ace, a couple times) that Bush was up by 15 over Kerry back in 2004.  Is this really true?  I was paying a lot of attention back then, and I seem to remember Kerry up by 1 or 2 for almost all of it, with maybe a week here and there with Bush up a point or 2.  Pretty much the same as the polls have been between McCain and Obama.  Maybe there was some whacked outlier poll that had Bush up by 15, but I don't remember anything like that as an average, and I suspect Bush +15 would've been dismissed out of hand even then.

Zombie Qwinn

157

Dr. Medical: The closet racists bug me.

If some PUMA gets into the pollbooth and votes McCain or writes in Hillary, she's then going to vote Democrat in the other races for "penance". Even if the other Democrat is (say) John Murtha.

Say McCain wins by a 3 point margin with a few Electoral College votes to spare. There would STILL be a blowout in the Senate.

I'd recommend that McCain just not bother appointing replacements for any Supreme Court justices who might pass away until 2011.

158

DD remanufactured comments are the bestest feature.

159 Maybe because I still have a landline. Get Skype, we are really the silent majority!

160 PaRep, Al Davis being batshit crazy is a good thing for Steelers fans, trust me. Oh, and once again we have the youngest head coach in the NFL (now that the Kiffin fetal coaching experiment is over).

161

In spite of his consistent leads though a few thousand votes in Ohio was all that separated us from a President Kerry.

If by "a few thousand" you mean " a hundred thousand", then you're right.  It was only a "close" race in the delusional feverings of leftist twits that see stolen elections even in places where the outcome is a relative blow-out for a supposedly purple state.

Don't you remember Kerry's luminary musings that if you filled The Shoe at OSU in Columbus with nothing but Bush voters, and all of them switched their votes to him, then he'd have won the election?  That's just how close he was!

162 Does anyone else think that John Boehner is cute? I fancy him . A bit.

163 I've been through a lot of race riots over the years. Ironically, it's black own property that get's destroyed, stolen, and burned down the most. Sound like a husband getting revenge on his wife's rapist by cutting off his own dick instead.

164

I guess Obama won or tied the election right after you destroyed Qwinn.

Sweet spanking Jesus, Ace.  Declare an O.B., have a couple Val-U-Rite martinis, off a couple real hobos, and do it soon, before you burn out.  Wouldn't want you shooting your whole wad before the election.

 

Also, turtle @#31: rockmom,

would you adopt me?

you're always the voice of reason over on HA and here

I would ask the same thing, but it would really ruin the fantasy.

165 Love that card; it would have been better with an old-looking serif font...

166

nofreelunch @#90: Polls are imaterial.  This election has been decided since June.  Hillary exposed Obama's inexperience, his associations with Rev. Wright, William Ayers, Father Flegler, and Tony Rezko during the primaries. Her supporters see Obama like conservatives see him, and 28% of them (up from 21% in June) say they're going to vote for McCain. Just as an example, this amounts to 350,000 votes in both Ohio and Pa. moving from the democrats to McCain. In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 140,000 votes and lost Pa. by  130,000. The point is that the democratic party is split and cannot possibly win the electoral vote.  Prediction:  McCain 355 electoral votes Obama 183. We'll see on  Nov. 5th. 

Got a link for the bolded part?

167

There are going to be so many community organizers "walking around" American big cities handing out "vote candy"  the day of the election the streets will look like scenes from Night of the Living Dead.

Just think of the "Thriller" video, before they start dancing.

168 I've found that I can't even simulate a "normal voter" anymore when I try to figure out what's going on. What's it like to only see news as the headlines on the papers and weeklies at the convenience store, and have your only information about the election be the paid ads the candidates put on tv? I can't even fathom it at this point, and so can offer no explanation for these numbers. None. I'm unable to predict what's coming down the pike, unlike in past years.

I guess that translates to: work like we're 10 points behind.

169 I guess Obama won or tied the election right after you destroyed Qwinn.

Because I -am- all that stands between the Republic and its final twilight.

Of course, my activities are now somewhat hampered by having to mostly restrict my operations to post-twilight hours.  The sun, it burnnnnnsssss...

Zombie Qwinn

170 Posted by: Kestrel♠ at September 30, 2008 10:29 PM (MhkWv)
I remember Kerry leading big right up till the end as well.  I thought that might have been orchestrated.
Then when it got close they changed the numbers to reflect reality, so the pollsters wouldn't be outed as totally in the tank.

That has been my observation as well.  About seven days out from the election is when they gradually begin to cease being opinion shapers and become reflective of opinion.

171 I'm new around here, so I don't know.  My question is about trolls.
Back when Air America was sorta relevant, I'd go troll there.  Fun, but like teasing retarded children.  You realize later that the great liberal thinkers really are that stupid.
Is Diddy Dog all you got here?  How do you zing a guy who's idea of repartee is, "I know I am, what are you?"   And how do you insult an exhibitionist that's repulsive and proud of being hung like a tack?   It's not like his shtick is really a problem here, I mean, we all use some pretty pungent language on this site; so I don't think it's some kind of gross out thing.  Surely, I am missing the joke, but I'll ask anyway, he's not really real is he?  Did someone build him out of a kit?  Anyway, sorry to give the poor thing this much attention.  He probably just got off, didn't he.  Guess I'll go shower.

172 I find DD funny, but his edited posts much funnier.

173 Captspaulding at October 01, 2008 12:17 AM (lWIm4)

If the DD comment is a single block of text at least a full screen long, that makes your brain ache if you accidental wade a few sentences into it without realizing its authorship-- that's really DD.

Otherwise, it's some of the post-hoc analysis that has made Ace the CPAC Conservative Blogger of the Year.

174 a4g,
Like some clown called ANC that used to rant on Air America.  Thanks.  Sorry, like I said, I'm new.

175 Mostly the trolls can't figure out how we discern their sock puppetry or recognize them as seminar callers. So eventually they just wander off confused and enraged. The "Concerned Christian" schtick is really pretty funny. Just because any serious Christians here have thick skins - and wouldn't ever perceive their own self-promotion as a "Concerned Christian" as something that would convince the goggle of morons around here of anything.

176

157Does anyone else think that John Boehner is cute? I fancy him . A bit.

He would be a lot cuter to me if he were to grab Pelosi by the hair, wrestle her to the ground, squeeze little broken cries of delight out of her by having her ride his personal Sybian machine, and then have her issue gasping praises of the GOP for having rescued Democrats from themselves, and the country from financial ruin.

Yeah, that would make him "cute".

 

177

P.s.

youporn

sybian may

nuff said.

178 As for the Christian stuff, I am one.  But I am also thick skinned.  I have a problem with anyone leading with their religion anyway.  Especially if they eventually intend to bludgeon you with it. 
It was the casual brutality that got me following this site.  Seriously funny, and take no prisoners.  I like that.  I'm sick (as a conservative and a Christian) of being dumped on because people think I'm too well mannered to fight back. 
Anyway on AA, I got the usual "fuck you"s, etc. but nothing like you guys dish out.  That's why I got tired of eggin' them on, they throw like girls.
I was puzzled about DD, tho, there are really people that sick out there.

179 I noticed that in all the detailed analysis in that article, which was almost apologetic that McCain had cut Obama's lead in half, there was not a single mention of the VPs.  Since it was likely voters, I wouldn't be surprised if that were part of the embargo on anything good about Palin. 

180 We'd like to apologize for the boss being such an inept troll, but we can't seem to get out of my current location, if you know what we mean.

181

mmmf mmff! mmmNHGHF!!

182 #101: I think the defeat of the bailout is helping the R's big time.  Could even be a game changer.  Public hates the concept of a bailout, even if they know we have to do it eventually.

I think we'll have to wait and see how things play out on Wall Street and in the banking industry before making this call. If the credit markets freeze up and/or people start losing jobs en masse between now and November 4, the bailout defeat could backfire on McCain and the GOP big-time.

That said, if Obama manages to lose in spite of having the MSM in the tank for him and basically winning fate's lottery by having a major economic crisis (historically the kiss of death for the incumbent party) fall into his lap, he could live to be a thousand years old and never, ever, EV-VER be able to live down the disgrace of that.

183 Joshua #177:
It's my considered opinion that if Obama does lose, he won't live to be 50. He, Axelrod, Pelosi, Plouffe are all going to get whacked for screwing up what should have been the surest thing of all. Oh, and Bill Ayers will get done in by a bomb in his car.

184 Oh dear

185 Crud.  Links are failing

186 If Obama loses, he will fade off into obscurity.  Hillary Clinton will not give him the time of day while campaigning in 2012. 

187 Polls are dumb. Every time they do election night polls of voters leaving the polls the MSM always call it 8 percent in favor of Democrats and they are almost never correct. So when I see polls showing Obama ahead by 4 I just think of the act that polls are always wrong in favor of Democrats. So McCain is ahead if the polls show Obama ahead by 6. If Obama is reported ahead by ten points then they are probably tied. But anytime they are reported tied then Obama is the  loser.

188 With everything going on, why is Obama only leading by 4 points? With the war and the economy OBAMA should have this election a close and shut case.

I put it honestly the GOP and BUSH made some FUBAR decisions in just the past 4 years alone and teh DEMS can barely crack 4 points?

 If he loses expect to see Hillary run again in 2012 on the "See I told you so, resurgence tour."

189 Well, if McC will GET BACK on the offense and start campaigning, we could kick some ass.

I've never been a fan of McCain. However, starting the couple of months before the conventions, he started to show some campaigning smarts. Then the pick of Palin made me think that he might actually be able to play this election game. Regardless of how it turns out, I think it was a politically smart move in that the selection of Palin shored up conservative support, which McCain needed and wasn't really getting; most conservative support pre-Palin was tepid at best.

Then, after the conventions, the non-stop barrage of anti-Palin bullshit started, while the campaign essentially sequestered Palin. Then the craptasticly edited interview with Gibson and stumblefest with Katic I-wear-black-on-days-after-Republicans-win Couric. Palin, who is more conservative than McCain, was playing a role ill suited for her: McCain's surrogate. She kept parroting stupid talking points that made her sound like her meds had been upped. A lot. Anyway, I started thinking that McCain really was the dumbass I always thought he was. Now, though, I'm not so sure.

Think about how public opinion sways back and forth during an election year: a candidate goes up, and then drifts back down. Up, then back down. The idea is to catch the wave on the way up going into election day. Bush did that in 2004 versus Kerry. His polls numbers were drifting up going in and he won by a decent margin in the popular vote.

Now imagine that you're McCain. You got a boost from the convention, but you knew that the relentless cock-sucking of Obama by the press would slowly push him back up. If that polling peak is too close to election day, you lose. Instead, you play rope-a-dope, acting like a sissy who can't bring himself to fight. Then the first debate comes along and the topic is in your wheelhouse. You expose your opponent as a foreign policy lightweight. That helps. Then a financial crisis comes along and you take the political risk of stopping your campaign to work on it. It's what you've always done and it starts to filter through people's brains that this what they can expect from you as president: someone who does things because he thinks they are right and not just politically expedient.

Next, you slowly start to let the leash slip off your running mate, letting her hit the talk radio circuit to let the base hear more from her going into her debate against someone who, frankly, is likely to start talking to dead people on stage. And you take pains to remove your bullshit talking points from her brain, allowing your running mate to be herself. As much as many conservatives don't like you, we recognize that you authentic. Palin has that quality as well and you finally realized that maybe, just maybe, she should let it all hang out, damning the torpedoes and going full speed ahead. She's gonna get filleted by the MSM regardless, so you let her go try to kick some ass.

Then two more debates come along, ones which, in theory, your opponent should do better. Why, I have no idea. In any event, you display a command of the information far above the pay grade of your opponent. He'll appear grandiose and above the fray, and manage to drop a bunch of talking points and platitudes that will cause a thrill to go up Chris Matthews anus, but over the next week or so, the idea that your opponent may not be ready for prime time will start to sink into the public's awareness. The polling margin will continue to shrink going into election day. Pundits will proclaim that it's too close to call, while ignoring the fact that the overall trend is in your favor. This movement continues through election day, when your numbers peak and you squeak out a close electoral victory.

Truthfully, I don't know if McCain is this smart, but if he's paid any attention during the last two elections, he might well be. Remember: Gore unleashed the Bush DUI the Friday before the election and CBS planned on airing the fake TANG documents the Sunday before the election. The only reason CBS aired them early enough to get debunked was that the NY Times was going to scoop CBS and the CBS brass couldn't allow that. In both of those years, Bush held a slight lead the last week before the election and, in both years, the Democrats tried to turn the tide by unleashing some bullshit right before the election to pull the opponent off of the polling peak. If McCain doesn't reach his peak until election day, this type of tactic might not work.

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