September 24, 2008
— Ace Gallup has Obama maintaining his three point edge, Rasmussen has Obama up by 2, a fairly big shift since yesterday's track showed them tied.
A FoxNews poll (not yet included in the RCP average) has Obama up by six -- and, oddly, McCain under 40%. They show it 45-39.
The Washington Post poll showing Obama up 52-43 had an interesting party split -- 54% Democrats, 38% Republicans (with leaners). My takeaway? Obama's underperforming even given this enormously favorable sample.
Whatever the actual numbers are, there's a genuine though possibly quite modest and evanscent trend towards Obama, and he's probably up by 3-4 points at the moment. Partly this is due to the official end of Palinmania, at least among swinging voters, thanks the media's relentless 3 week campaign against her, and partly this is due to the economy, and the public's uninformed guess that any time there's some problem with Wall Street or finance, it must be because of the Republicans helping out their buddies.
They couldn't be more wrong, of course. The election will be won or lost based on McCain's effectiveness at reversing that built-in narrative.
Official Obama Campaign Website The New York Timesblog realizes this, of course, and is claiming that Rick Davis was paid by Freddie and Fannie to lobby for them through last month, an allegation the McCain campaign denies in the strongest terms.
Meanwhile, the New York Timesblog has never heard of Penny Pritizker, the Michael Milken of Subprime Mortgages, and Obama's National Finance Chair.
Nor have their world-class blog-on-paper posters (almost as good as the posters at the Huffington Post) stumbled upon the well-kept secret that Fannie and Freddie donated hugely to Democrats.
Incidentally, I don't know why McCain agreed to allow Friday's debate to shift from the economic agenda scheduled to the foreign policy agenda it will now explore. Seems like a huge error to agree to that change. He needs to reverse uninformed public opinion on this, and he gave up his highest-profile near-term chance to do so.
Protein Wisdom vs. the New York Timesblog: Good article.
Posted by: Ace at
09:01 AM
| Comments (96)
Post contains 352 words, total size 3 kb.
Probably why McCain has been pushing the "wall street greed" meme so hard.
Anyways, things look pretty grim right now. The state polls seem to be tighter though.
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 24, 2008 09:04 AM (IhQuA)
Posted by: Booben at September 24, 2008 09:08 AM (4SGur)
If McCain was up in the polls, would you lessen your efforts to push his side? Rest on your laurels? I wouldn't, and I doubt you would either.
FIDO.
Posted by: apotheosis at September 24, 2008 09:08 AM (TdBA+)
They couldn't be more wrong, of course. The election will be won or lost based on McCain's effectiveness at reversing that built-in narrative.
I've been wondering for awhile when he was going to offer a rebuttal to the Democrat/MSM storyline. Not exactly a quick-footed war room at McCain HQ.
lorien 1973 was right...McCain came out trying to kiss up, 2000 style, with his media friendly greed-bashing schtick. Didn't work. Worked when you were compared to conservative Republicans. But you can't out Oliver Stone a liberal. Can't do it.
He blew a solid week on that storyline and it might cost him the election.
Posted by: CJ at September 24, 2008 09:10 AM (9KqcB)
Obub is getting a bounce because of bad economic news. If the economy stabilizes between now and Nov, the bounce will go away. The election will still be fought state by state, not nationally. I would LOVE to see Obub win popular vote, and lose the electoral college by a skinny cat's shrivelled whisker.
Posted by: Tushar at September 24, 2008 09:10 AM (ZqHH5)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 09:11 AM (evdj2)
That damn Media! Everyone was really loving her until they found out what an empty skirt suit she was because of people making words about her. An abstinence only advocate who's teen daughter got knocked up! Hahaha. Oh yeah and she's about as dumb as your average hockey mom. Lipstick pitbull shit is still making me laugh, what a great gal. She should be President!
and partly this is due to the economy, and the public's uninformed guess that any time there's some problem with Wall Street or finance, it must be because of the Republicans helping out their buddies.
Stupid Americans don't even know about economy! It's not the governement's fault they don't even have anything to do with economy. Economy.
Meanwhile, the New York Timesblog has never heard of Penny Pritizker, the Michael Milken of Subprime Mortgages, and Obama's National Finance Chair.
Why won't they write about stuff I want them to write about. I carry water for them all the time!
Whine ass bitch, I've been saying this all along. ITS OVER. It was over when Bam beat Hill and the best you could get was a guy you hate.
Here's the deal, Monday morning polls will show a solid 6 point lead in tracking after McCain does some major fucking up in the debate. Believe it.
Enjoy this before the cowardly graffiti dicks rummage through their meme bags and roll out some gut clenching hilarity.
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 09:12 AM (+7Kdb)
Protein Wisdom reports:
As I noted in an update last evening would almost certainly be the case, the media today is pushing the story that the firm owned by McCains campaign manager, Rick Davis, lobbied for Freddie and Fannie Mac all while continuing to ignore exploring, at any length, Sen Barack Obamas actual ties to those closely related to the current economic meltdown. Not only that, but the Davis-as-tied-to-crisis story is disputed by the McCain campaign which alleges that the NYT has reported in bad faith, and that public records back up the campaigns claims that Mr Davis cut ties to his firm in 2006, and that he never lobbied Freddie or Fannie Mac (and in fact, hasnt been a registered lobbyist since 2005).
All of which, I suppose, is not surprising; after all, the media seems to think that the Sen from Illinois is running against everyone but Senator McCain, from the Gov. of Alaska to a campaign manager, and so their function has been to try to dirty them and hope that as the stories accrue, the public is left with a certain impression crafted by their reporting, while the facts that undercut this impression will ultimately only be corrected in the back pages of the paper, if at all.
http://proteinwisdom.com/?p=13309
By the way check this out: http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/24/new-mccain-ad-the-coal-miner/ (it is awesome)
Posted by: Joe at September 24, 2008 09:12 AM (+GRGs)
As Rush says, Republicans win when they are conservative, they lose when they act moderate or liberal. McCain has been acting liberal (greed! greed!) and he's losing. Go figure.
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 24, 2008 09:14 AM (IhQuA)
Uh, dummy, no one on this blog does a single fucking thing for anyone but themselves. They think posting in this black hole echo chamber is public service. Bam's got this so get your not racist ironic t-shirt collection together.
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 09:14 AM (+7Kdb)
So, W is going on the air tonight. He better have an airtight history of his attempts to fix fannie mae/freddy mac or else this election is lost.
Posted by: joeindc44 at September 24, 2008 09:15 AM (QxSug)
Reports-hahahahaha. How can you believe that it's the media! aAke the media publish that media and then we will all be freed by true media!
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 09:16 AM (+7Kdb)
Enjoy this before the cowardly graffiti dicks rummage through their meme bags and roll out some gut clenching hilarity.
Posted by: frito at September
Wow. somebody opened the door at the DU and let one out.
Posted by: kat-missouri at September 24, 2008 09:16 AM (YLs4U)
How come frito forgot to mention that it is a concerned conservative Christian?
Oh, well. I guess we could tell from its tone.
Posted by: notropis at September 24, 2008 09:19 AM (cP1DU)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 09:19 AM (evdj2)
I think this would be the worst possible outcome. The only thing it's good for is ratcheting up the bitterness and rancor among the Dems to maximum levels, and of course we'll have to hear endless repetitions of the "we wuz robbed" meme for the next 4 or 8 years. If McCain wins a not-even-close election, the bitterness and rancor will still be there, but not nearly as bad, and any claims of electoral theft will not be taken seriously, even by partisan hack media outlets like the NY Times.
Posted by: OregonMuse at September 24, 2008 09:19 AM (FO+YO)
w00t! We got a live one. Okay, nobody scare it..
Posted by: S. Weasel at September 24, 2008 09:19 AM (rasT+)
Kat-Mo:
You had all night with open blog privileges and didn't use the opportunity to destroy Ace's blog.
What gives?
Posted by: notropis at September 24, 2008 09:20 AM (cP1DU)
Only, it seems that this time, Maverick will chew up Capt. Uh in the debates.
Posted by: joeindc44 at September 24, 2008 09:21 AM (QxSug)
Posted by: Tushar at September 24, 2008 09:21 AM (ZqHH5)
Posted by: David Ross at September 24, 2008 09:22 AM (94eYr)
Posted by: stinky esposito at September 24, 2008 09:22 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 24, 2008 09:23 AM (TAgKN)
Re: the debates- it could work out. National security is McCain's strongest suit and Obama's weakest, so a strong victory could cripple the other campaign. That leaves some time for the bailout to be discussed and/or voted on, the issue to settle down, and McCain to have a solid answer/response/plan.
Yeah, I'm pinning my hopes on the debates, but McCain and Pailin will be stronger in them than Obama and Biden, and if they don't make the trends break for the Republicans, nothing will.
Posted by: Cobra Commander at September 24, 2008 09:23 AM (lPxkl)
"As Rush says, Republicans win when they are conservative, they lose when they act moderate or liberal. McCain has been acting liberal (greed! greed!) and he's losing. Go figure."
The thing is, though: why didn't this work for Santorum? I'm afraid the country really is trending left. Leftists have been indoctrinating our children for two solid generations now, and their brains have gone to mush.
Depressing.
Posted by: Kensington at September 24, 2008 09:23 AM (kFwRi)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 09:23 AM (evdj2)
Posted by: koopy at September 24, 2008 09:24 AM (q8JxI)
Obama consistently outperformed in polls and then underperformed in primaries in the, uh, primaries.
Posted by: hit and run at September 24, 2008 09:24 AM (jjNS6)
Posted by: Tushar at September 24, 2008 09:25 AM (ZqHH5)
I don't buy poll values, only poll trends, but the weighting in these polls seems kinda. . .
Heavy.
It's like Stormy70 and I being in the same weight class.
There is always an assumption favoring lib's, and Wiz pointed out a 50% shift in the variation of weighting between dem's and 'pubs, as well as heavily sampling dem's.
I don't know if it is THIS poll, but it was a poll making shit look bad for 'pubs.
Posted by: Wickedpinto at September 24, 2008 09:26 AM (ul7te)
Posted by: A. Weasel at September 24, 2008 09:27 AM (bqcfE)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 09:27 AM (evdj2)
Posted by: mpur at September 24, 2008 09:28 AM (BotaL)
I think once people see that Fannie and Freddie were make-work jobs for Democrats (Jamie Gorelick, for God's sake!), the Dems won't come out looking so good.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 24, 2008 09:29 AM (T0NGe)
Tob,
It would be real neat if it really started from AoS. I could go down in history as the guy who started a 'meme'*
I fcuking hate that word. I don't even know how to pronounce it.
Posted by: Tushar at September 24, 2008 09:30 AM (ZqHH5)
Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at September 24, 2008 09:31 AM (IWwW5)
Its spreading.
Totally off topic and not to suggest that all successful Indians know each other but, do you happen to know Bijoy Sahoo.
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 09:33 AM (evdj2)
Tushar, this should be easy for you to remember - it's pronounced like "scream." As in:
I fcuking hate that word. I don't even know how to pronounce it. Every time I hear it, I want to scream!
Posted by: Andy at September 24, 2008 09:34 AM (C3mTI)
You're racist for having a problem with an incurious "independent" media not being inquisitive about a candidate they openly support.
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 24, 2008 09:35 AM (IhQuA)
MSM support is worth 15 pts. And this time they're leveraging it to the hilt.
McCain needs to bypass them, and just keep on releasing web ads. Because everytime they come out, the press reports on them, and tons of people see them.
Posted by: Iblis at September 24, 2008 09:36 AM (9221z)
As Rush says, Republicans win when they are conservative, they lose when they act moderate or liberal. McCain has been acting liberal (greed! greed!) and he's losing. Go figure.
At least be consistent. He's all over the map. I guess I should note that McCain beat all the "real conservatives" in the primary...but Romney and Rudy don't fit that label.
The thing is, though: why didn't this work for Santorum? I'm afraid the country really is trending left.
The country has been trending Anti-Bush since before his re-election. I can't really think of many true "conservative" policies he implemented that Americans could be rejecting.
Posted by: CJ at September 24, 2008 09:37 AM (9KqcB)
I've been saying that to all the "let it all go to hell, and then we'll rebuild (and elect Reagan)" crowd for a year now.
Posted by: A. Weasel at September 24, 2008 09:37 AM (bqcfE)
You simple bitches sure do love to curl up around your non-cleverness-stuck on stupid! Haha shit, uh, never, um gets old. Unfunny frauds.
Frito disappeared like a puss while McCain surged in the polls.
Hahaha, it's called a convention bump you ignorant. Plus, I know you fucknuts are all frittering away in your cubicles wasting someone's money, but some peeps got a life and need to make shit happen as inconsequential as that shit may be. Finally why would I want to post more than occasionally about Palin? Hot poon, but not much past that-and son that ain't politics! I did predict on this blog that your frenzy, much like the strange wrinkle licking you did about another fake human Fred T, would subside and leave you even further in despair.
39 in that Fox news poll-how the fuck do you turn that mess around? Ol Rev Wright is going to have to beat the baby out of that pregnant Palin girl with his Unitarian homo rainbow flag to change that shit.
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 09:38 AM (+7Kdb)
Posted by: The WRight Reverend God Damn American at September 24, 2008 09:40 AM (evdj2)
I have been speculating that W has refused to bully pulpit the DNC involvement with fannie mae to spite McCain for being so mavericky. Otherwise, W's refusal to go on the air and make the case that this is not "wild west finances" is probably W's worst failure of leadership to date.
I don't think anyone on the GOP side wants Bush making their case. He's not running and his poll numbers are in the basement.
Posted by: CJ at September 24, 2008 09:40 AM (9KqcB)
I love crash and burn libertarianism! Well, I didn't used to, but now I do
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 24, 2008 09:41 AM (IhQuA)
They changed the topic? WTF is McCain TRYING to lose this election?
IDIOT.
I thought we would blow the MN away Friday, now I expect we will get little or nothing from it.
IDIOTS IDIOTS IDIOTS
Posted by: Kempermanx at September 24, 2008 09:42 AM (qvT/A)
I'm not saying you're crazy. But, you are obviously batshit crazy. You probably missed that whole Supreme Court overiding state's rights thing in '00. And, last I heard Tricky Dick took it in the nuts when Daly got busy doing it the Chicago Way.
Don't be such a puss.
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 09:42 AM (+7Kdb)
Posted by: A. Weasel at September 24, 2008 09:43 AM (bqcfE)
Bush isn't good enough at speeches to make the case for anything. That's been his problem since 2000. He got a little better after 9/11, but Bush's complete inability to put a decent soundbite together (uh, um, ah) hurt him for 8 years. And him trying to work with democrats on everything made it even worse.
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 24, 2008 09:44 AM (IhQuA)
"The country has been trending Anti-Bush since before his re-election. I can't really think of many true "conservative" policies he implemented that Americans could be rejecting. "
But what's that got to do with Santorum? What comfort can there be in suggesting this is only because of Bush if it takes down bona fide conservatives running as such like Santorum?
Maybe it is anti-Bush, but it took down Santorum, and it shouldn't have, if Rush's conventional wisdom were still reliable.
Posted by: Kensington at September 24, 2008 09:45 AM (kFwRi)
I guess I'm saying, pretty much, that cock, balls, and manmilk are where it's at as far as I'm concerned
The return of the Magnificent 7!
Posted by: JackStraw at September 24, 2008 09:47 AM (VBon8)
The most reliable poll, the Battleground Poll, currently has Mccain up by 2:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Agree with your overall analysis, though. We have to keep working. Many of us post and opine here. In light of weakening poll numbers for McCain/Palin, the legacy media suppressing any positive information about the GOP while obviously touting the Obama/Biden ticket and hiding the flaws and failures of the Democrat candidates, and the consquences of having a purely liberal Democrat White House and Senate, we need to do more than opine. We need to act, to the best of our abilities.
I know many of us here have donated, and many are involved in grassroots operations. However, those of us who are in deep blue territory might be able to assist in the battle gound states. Reaching out to undecided voters in these state is vital to spreading the word that John Mccain and Governor Sarah Palin are the right choice for America.
I am signing up for the phone bank, which can be done through here:
https://secure.johnmccain.com//Secure/Signup.aspx?smode=phonebank
The inspiration comes from the PUMAs, who are now in the process of making calls to Michigan and Colorado, to push-back on the swarm of Obamabots deluging voters of those states.
Posted by: Mutnodjmet at September 24, 2008 09:50 AM (odXaA)
Frito? Maybe we should start a FDS alert system, that would be Frito Derangement Syndrome, or should we just start calling him "Tom", he's to young to know what we mean and we can enjoy the inside cut.
Nice post, Tom.
Posted by: Kempermanx at September 24, 2008 09:51 AM (qvT/A)
Posted by: Dave in PB at September 24, 2008 09:52 AM (Y8qcp)
Shit, I post that we should start calling him "Tom", shit, frito IS Tom. Same shit, different name.
Tom, you've been outed, welcome back, cocksucker.
48 I guess I'm saying, pretty much, that cock, balls, and manmilk are where it's at as far as I'm concerned.
Posted by: Kempermanx at September 24, 2008 09:53 AM (qvT/A)
Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 24, 2008 09:54 AM (MMC8r)
There is too much polling this year and too many people who simply won't participate in them, mostly conservative. I think they are probably pretty worthless.
It would be interesting to find out how many calls each poll had to make just to find the number they needed to answer. I'll bet there are entire sections of states they are unable to even get 1 or 2 people to participate in the poll.
Posted by: Rocks at September 24, 2008 09:55 AM (Q1lie)
Incidentally, I don't know why McCain agreed to allow Friday's debate to shift from the economic agenda scheduled to the foreign policy agenda it will now explore.
Breaking News! McCain has just suggested that the Friday debate be postponed so that he can return to DC and work on the bailout!
Posted by: JackStraw at September 24, 2008 09:56 AM (VBon8)
Posted by: Judd at September 24, 2008 10:00 AM (BXHeE)
On the Debates: McCain might be able to turn any international question (say energy) back to domestic issues and say something useful.
On being down in the Polls: Fighting the Obama Zombie Horde was hopeless to begin with and continues to remain that way. You knew that when you opted in with Team McCain. So no crying as things turn black (racist!).
Hell, remember how grim it was right before Palin's convention speech? O's bounce in full swing and MSM and Obamam Astroturfing attacks in full force.
And yet Team McCain was not crushed then and we are not lost now.
You stood with Team McCain then so stand with them now. What are you, fucking fair-weather allies? No, you are gaddamn morons who oppose the Unstopable. Might as well be happy about it and keep fighting.
Fucking Morons. Stop panic-running into walls.
Posted by: ArandomPerson at September 24, 2008 10:01 AM (MSMPS)
Just got this CNN breaking news in my email
-- John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.
Posted by: pistolero at September 24, 2008 10:04 AM (QuCVu)
ArandomPerson,
Good advice, deep breaths. Another Valu Rite, all is well, all is well!
I am putting on my Tin Hat and calling Karl, RIGHT NOW. I need some good news.
Kemp
Posted by: Kempermanx at September 24, 2008 10:06 AM (qvT/A)
Posted by: frito at September 24, 2008 10:08 AM (+7Kdb)
Posted by: Kensington at September 24, 2008 10:08 AM (kFwRi)
I think the news is worse than you realize. I think Americans are generally well aware of Democrat tie-ins with the financial crisis; but I also think they like Obama's policies and views. In other words: I don't think the lack of support for McCain is due to ignorance of Obama's policies and such, in the sense that "if only we conservatives get the truth out, those swing voters (among others) will support McCain"; I think they support Obama because they agree with Obama.
And that's very bad news indeed.
Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 24, 2008 10:09 AM (WriPx)
Senator Present has never shown that his elected duties are of any priority.
Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 24, 2008 10:09 AM (MMC8r)
I'm inclined to look at McCain's suspension as a sign of leadership.
I look at it as an act of desperation by a man who isn't sure what to do or say is playing for time. And I think American voters will look at it that way too. And, no, I don't think Obama would do the same: I think Obama would bullshit his way through it--which will make him look stronger than McCain.
Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 24, 2008 10:12 AM (WriPx)
Posted by: Tushar at September 24, 2008 10:13 AM (ZqHH5)
Some would argue we're already there...
Posted by: Militant Bibliophile at September 24, 2008 10:23 AM (cXseo)
They had one window, and that was building on the Palin buzz after the convention. They blew it by hiding her and reinforcing the meme (sorry Tush) that she wasn't ready for primetime. Even I am starting to wonder that. Let her loose, go down fighting.
I agree 100%. Why the hell didn't they get her out there, instead of letting the media define her? Stupid!
Posted by: JohnW at September 24, 2008 10:25 AM (cGcIy)
Another rich irony is that the only racists who matter in this election are the ones in the Democratic Party. News flash: Republicans arent voting for the Democratic nominee because theyre Republicans.
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 10:35 AM (evdj2)
While Tushar was busy trying to survive on Wall Street, NRO was stealing his lines. Have they no shame?
Posted by: Andy at September 24, 2008 10:42 AM (C3mTI)
Posted by: joeindc44 at September 24, 2008 10:44 AM (yrMek)
Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 24, 2008 10:55 AM (TAgKN)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 10:59 AM (evdj2)
Posted by: Log Cabin at September 24, 2008 11:11 AM (gdnD6)
Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 24, 2008 11:17 AM (TAgKN)
STOP YOUR BITCHING!!!!!
The Debates are the first SOLID measure. announcements and conventions are one sided.
LET the media bitch about "press conferences." I would like to know the last time they bitched about press conferences. OH it was DONALD RUMSFELD!" Before that? it was bush.
Before that? no clue, I know clinton gave a speach, looked the nation in the eyes and lied, before that. . .
before that?
Posted by: Wickedpinto at September 24, 2008 11:28 AM (ul7te)
Actually, I'm pretty juiced, but that's just old white guy privilege. (join the past, vote the telegraph)
Posted by: toby928 at September 24, 2008 11:31 AM (evdj2)
Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 24, 2008 12:04 PM (TAgKN)
Posted by: joeindc44 at September 24, 2008 12:14 PM (yrMek)
Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 24, 2008 02:13 PM (WriPx)
Posted by: greg at September 24, 2008 03:23 PM (eN3hX)
I don't give a hoot what the polls say. My leftist neighbors aren't displaying Obama signs, saying they'll stay at home. At the gym no one mentions the annointed one but everyone speaks about Palin. The same at various stores.
Dhimmierat activists get sent away when they ask who are you supporting looking all dejected, apparently they are used to this in Virginia. I can only say I remember what the polls said in 1980, 1984 and 1994.
I also doubt we'd be seeing all these articles about bitter, racists in battlefield states or how there will be a race war if Obama doesn't win, if the annointed one is ahead.
I only hope one of these polling geniuses will put his money where his mouth is, but then I forget, all these races are within the margin of error, just like 1980, 1984, and 1994.
These chumps are so pathetic.
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