November 19, 2009

Oh Dear: Rubio Within Ten of Crist; Palin Favorables Up
— Ace

But I don't know if I trust this stuff -- after all, AllahPundit is notorious for cherry-picking only happy, upbeat news to report.

Palin's favorables remain kind of weak -- remember, Obama's got something like a 56-60% personal favorability rating, depending on the poll; and yet his actual approval rate, as in job approval, is at least ten point lower.

It's good that her favorability rating is climbing, now up to a very ehhh 47-42. But John McCain got creamed in an election with a favorability rating of like 56% or something.

On the other hand...

[Obama's] possible opponent in the 2012 elections trails him in personal favorability by only seven points (54 percent to 47 percent). Among the critical segment of independent voters, they are virtually even (Obama at 50 percent; Palin at 49 percent).

Allah notes the poll is a bit skewed towards Republicans (for once!), but that independent segment should be unaffected by that.

Still, personal favorability, while meaningful, is just not the same as "I'd vote for her."

Meanwhile, a Kos poll says Rubio is on Crist's heels. And Kos thinks Crist is done as a Republican candidate, for what that's worth.

Done as a Republican candidate, that is. We now have to worry he'll run as an Independent, or even -- as Kos urges -- a Democrat.

And I suspect we will hear of some exploration of these possibilities, confirming Republicans' worst fears about him.

Posted by: Ace at 12:46 PM | Comments (392)
Post contains 259 words, total size 2 kb.

1 From squish to Donk in one easy step.

Posted by: WalrusRex at November 19, 2009 12:48 PM (xxgag)

2 I got your big tent right here!

Posted by: Free White and 21 at November 19, 2009 12:52 PM (kM/ZI)

3 Go Rubio. Crist is a lying squish. He campaigned for porkulus and then claimed to never having endorsed it. He supported cap-and-trade and is now trying to back away. He claimed he didn't even know Obama was in Florida when his office was notified. Then he appointed to the Senate George Lemieux, a stooge whose first act in Washington was to condemn Joe Wilson for calling Obama a liar. He'd make Lindsey Graham or Olympia Snowe proud.

Posted by: Benson at November 19, 2009 12:52 PM (qzcNU)

4

Let's see how her favorables are after another year of craptacular economic news.  As in:  One in eleven mortgages in the country are now in default.  CNBC caved today and admitted the actual unemployment rate is 17.5 percent. 

After the book tour, she should lay low for six months and just let Damian and the Thorns be themselves.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 19, 2009 12:52 PM (B+qrE)

5 Crist has the racist vote locked up.  Just look at that marvelous pallor!

Posted by: Cicero at November 19, 2009 12:52 PM (QKKT0)

6 What the hell is wrong with the Republican party leaders?

Dede was hand picked...and jumped ship.

Our party's nominee in 2008 seriously considered flipping parties in 2004.

And now in an election that a conservative should be able to win, the party wants to run a squish who might also jump ship if the voters reject him?


Posted by: 18-1 at November 19, 2009 12:53 PM (7BU4a)

7

So, the Arlen Specter trick? When you look like you are losing, switch sides.

 

Posted by: eddiebear at November 19, 2009 12:53 PM (wnU1W)

8 Is he any relation to Jesus Crist?

Posted by: Saul of Tarsus and Miami at November 19, 2009 12:53 PM (QKKT0)

9 Crist really bought into the Obama Craze. He blows with the wind. Politicians tend to do that. But what do we say when he misjudged the winds entirely? Can't even credit him with even having a cynical-but-steely understanding of what the public wants.

Posted by: ace at November 19, 2009 12:54 PM (PwU1o)

10 Yeah, but a lot of those who "liked" McCain were Dems and Dem-leaning Indies - they "liked" him, but they didn't "like-like" him, IYKWIMAITTYD.

Posted by: Holdfast at November 19, 2009 12:54 PM (Gzb30)

11

“This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting and never use the word “victory,” except when he’s talking about his own campaign.

But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed, when the roar of the crowd fades away, when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot…when that happens, what exactly is our opponent’s plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish after he’s done turning back the waters and healing the planet?

The answer — the answer is to make government bigger, and take more of your money, and give you more orders from Washington, and to reduce the strength of America in a dangerous world.


America needs more energy; our opponent is against producing it. Victory in Iraq is finally in sight, and he wants to forfeit.

Terrorist states are seeking nuclear weapons without delay; he wants to meet them without preconditions.

Al Qaida terrorists still plot to inflict catastrophic harm on America, and he’s worried that someone won’t read them their rights."

Sara Palin, 2008

Now you know why the left hates Sara Palin.  She was on to the vacuous community organizer from the get go.  Her and Rudy Giuliani can never be forgiven for calling Obama what he is.

Posted by: thethinmanreturns at November 19, 2009 12:54 PM (W3XUk)

12

What the hell is wrong with the Republican party leaders?

Poor word choice there, my friend.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 19, 2009 12:55 PM (B+qrE)

13 you know I'm a big believer in that theory. The orignal sin of blasphemy against the New God.

Posted by: ace at November 19, 2009 12:56 PM (PwU1o)

14 If another big name "moderate" republican flips and either endorses a democrat or moves to the democrat party; you'll never get a "moderate" republican elected again. The purity movement would have proven itself correct.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 19, 2009 12:57 PM (IhQuA)

15 He blows with the wind.

Hence the problems with moderates. They aren't reliable votes on anything. It isn't that they are moderate on this or that. They'll go along with anything. One day big government spending, next day small government tax cuts. It's schizophrenic.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 19, 2009 12:58 PM (IhQuA)

16

Palin is going through Florida like "Crap through a Goose".

Nov.24th

Jacksonville

The Villages

Orlando

Posted by: Free White and 21 at November 19, 2009 12:58 PM (kM/ZI)

17 >>it's good that her favorables are rising<< Umm, no. It's bad that her favorables are rising. She's unelectable, and the longer we keep our hopes pinned to her polarizing personality, the less time we'll have to find a Republican who can win in 2012.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 12:59 PM (daRzV)

18 Cherry picker!

Posted by: Mama AJ at November 19, 2009 12:59 PM (Be4xl)

19

Cherry picker!

Racist!

Posted by: Mama AJ's evil (aka liberal) twin at November 19, 2009 01:00 PM (Be4xl)

20 Helloooooooooooo Florida!  I'd just like to give a Hopenchange Stimulus Shout Out to my good friend Gov. Charley Crist.

He's the kind of Republican we can work with.  He's the kind of guy who can give a good reach arou...., uh, I mean, uh, you know, who can reach across the aisle.

And if he follows my good advice he'll be just as successful in his gubernatorial race as all the other governors we've helped to get re-elected.

Of course if he doesn't follow our advice and doesn't get through the primaries, well, we'd just ask that he take one for the team and endorse the Democrat candidate.  It's the patriotic thing to do.

That's just how we roll.

Posted by: President Toonces at November 19, 2009 01:01 PM (W+E+o)

21 Allahpundit only pick happy posts? I must have missed something when I go to Hot Air since he's always given grief for finding a cloud in a bright spot. Eyore and all.

Posted by: Rodney at November 19, 2009 01:02 PM (6WxDr)

22 17 >>it's good that her favorables are rising<<

Umm, no. It's bad that her favorables are rising. She's unelectable, and the longer we keep our hopes pinned to her polarizing personality, the less time we'll have to find a Republican who can win in 2012.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 05:59 PM (daRzV)


Nixon was unelectable after the 1960 campaign.

How high would Palin's favorables have to rise before you reconsider? Me, I think she's damaged goods, but I'm far from willing to write her off.

Posted by: XBradTC at November 19, 2009 01:02 PM (y0E9v)

23 >>>Hence the problems with moderates. They aren't reliable votes on anything. I know... but what people like me are counseling is better an unreliable vote than a reliable vote *against* you. Not to say we shouldn't go for it on 4th down. As in the NFL -- going for it on fourth down is actually the optimum strategy a lot of the time, and most coaches refuse to go with the odds, due to faint-heartedness. BIll Bellichick goes for it on 4th down a lot -- and even he probably isn't doing it as often as statistics would suggest he should. But... but... Yes, we need to go for it on makable fourth downs more often. Vote with our hopes, not our fears, and etc. But we also have to keep in mind that 4th and 25 is a really good time to punt. Punting meaning "go with a squish in a district that is squish or liberal-ish."

Posted by: ace at November 19, 2009 01:02 PM (PwU1o)

24 I bet that Crist will come out of the closet right after he announces he intends to run as a Democrat.


Posted by: Tim B. at November 19, 2009 01:03 PM (WLldW)

25

The orignal sin of blasphemy against the New God.

You guys are on to something there.  McCain could never bring himself to be the old bastard he really is when it came to Obama.  Palin had zero difficulty in pointing out that not only was the emperor naked, but that he was clueless, shifty and underendowed to boot.

I've have said again and again on this blog that the next candidate needs to realize who the enemies are and that no amount of kiss-kiss is going to bring the media, lefty academia, economic nitwits and Hollywood douches to their senses.  Enough. 

People tend to forget the following relexive corollary to the well known saying:  The friend of my enemy is my enemy. 

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 19, 2009 01:04 PM (B+qrE)

26 Railwriter,,, Spoken just like McCain ,Graham, Specter.... The party must go left !!!!11!!
Common sense is polarizing . Run away, run away.

Posted by: awkward davies at November 19, 2009 01:05 PM (wb68R)

27 Screw Crist!!  I sick of that Rino.  Bring on Rubio.

Posted by: CDR M at November 19, 2009 01:05 PM (cvmTR)

28 The fact that Palin's favorability is now close to 50% even after all the media based terrorist attacks that have been launched against her is a miracle.

More cowbell please?

Posted by: Lincoln Adams at November 19, 2009 01:06 PM (gLNLT)

29 Nixon? He didn't repeat his 1960 loss four years later, when he'd have lost again. His numbers were vastly better against JFK than Palin's numbers. I like her. My wife likes her. I'd vote for her, if she were the nominee. I just hope like hell that we don't condemn ourselves to an ass-whipping in 2012 by nominating her. How high would her approval ratings have to be? A helluva lot closer to 50% than they currently are.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:07 PM (daRzV)

30 Umm, no. It's bad that her favorables are rising. She's unelectable, and the longer we keep our hopes pinned to her polarizing personality, the less time we'll have to find a Republican who can win in 2012.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 05:59 PM (daRzV)

As much as I like her -- and I really, really do -- I agree with you 100%.  She'll be a great asset to a real conservative, but the surest way to commit GOP suicide in 2012 would be to put her on the ticket, in either spot.  Anyone who doesn't think so has only been listening to the echo chamber and not the residents of the real world, many of whom feel a visceral dislike for her.

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 01:07 PM (9Wv2j)

31 But we also have to keep in mind that 4th and 25 is a really good time to punt.

But 4th and whatever with the game clock at :20 and your team down? That's where we are at. With all almost lost and last chances dwindling, One yard or 50 yards; right now we still need that vote to be *right* when it counts.

Why we can't get Republicans to "go for it" given all is almost lost is beyond me.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose at November 19, 2009 01:08 PM (0q2P7)

32  Giuliani Palin 2012?

Posted by: Barc at November 19, 2009 01:08 PM (ia/06)

33 Put it this way: does every other person you know--plus some--claim that they like Palin and would like to see her as president? Because until that's the situation, she's not a good bet.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:08 PM (daRzV)

34 Chill on the polls, dude. It's too far out from both 2010 and 2012 to divine anything from the poll numbers. Think about it. After Obama's election just 12 short months ago, the MSM declared the end of  republicanism, based on polls and the big vote.

Now O is circling the drain. But, things change. If the economy lurches back on its own the recovery will be declared "the work of O" and he will surge back. The public is so fickle.

There's a whole class of folks who don't pay attention and have no freakin' clue. And that's MOST of them. Scary thing is, a lot of those people vote. And the wannabe cool folks in that group go along with Jon Stewart, stand up comics, nightly sit-coms, conan o'brien, etc., who all bend left. They wannebe cool so they laugh at Palin, vote for Pelosi and get hideous tattoos 'cause the TV tells them to.

Posted by: Sphynx at November 19, 2009 01:09 PM (xilNI)

35 I'd like to take a moment to thank ace for a clean post on Sarah Palin.  I can't say I have any complaints.

AllahPundit is notorious for cherry-picking only happy, upbeat news to report.

Okay, I have to find some windex for my monitor.  Minor complaint, that.

Posted by: Methos at November 19, 2009 01:09 PM (CoDwG)

36 My favorite part of the latest round of Palinmania is that the DNC is now sending out press kits favorably quoting John McCain, Nicole Wallace, and Steve Schmidt.  That speaks volumes about how much of a threat McCain by himself posed to Teh Won.

Posted by: Ian S. at November 19, 2009 01:09 PM (p05LM)

37 Someone ask Michael Steele to contact us.

Posted by: LameStreamMedia Spotlight at November 19, 2009 01:10 PM (EL+OC)

38 I'd like to take a moment to thank ace for a clean post on including a mention of Sarah Palin.  I can't say I have any complaints.

Nuts.  Just trying to alleviate the worry his voiced about bringing her up and I go and step on the main point of the post.  Go, Crist!  And don't let the door hit you!

Posted by: Methos at November 19, 2009 01:12 PM (CoDwG)

39

She's unelectable, and the longer we keep our hopes pinned to her polarizing personality, the less time we'll have to find a Republican who can win in 2012.

Those who thought the Gipper polarizing said exactly the same thing.  Tell me what polarizing means in your world?  The guy in the White House got 52% percent of the vote.  Does that make him polarizing?  Was Dubya?  Bubba? 

Elections are supposed to be polarizing.  When one side is so clearly and objectively wrong in its policy choices, those same choices should be highlighted and hammered home.  Just think where we would be today if Ronald Reagan and/or Abraham Lincoln had chosen to be "uniters."

   

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 19, 2009 01:12 PM (B+qrE)

40 I didn't say anything about "going left," you mouth-breather. I said Palin wasn't electable. Please try to keep up with the rest of the class.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:12 PM (daRzV)

41 Crist, The Scuzz, and Specter aren't Republicans, they're opportunists. Whatever gets them elected is their coarse of action. McCain and Graham are Rinos, to a certain extent, but they at least have principles they believe in and follow. They are Republicans. We need to find out who is a Republican and who is an opportunist and vote accordingly.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 19, 2009 01:12 PM (muUqs)

42

The RNC & RNCC better hurry up with that Millions to Crist before he can switch ...ie spector & scuzzflave.

Steele, the man of linguinni, call your office

Posted by: Serfer62 at November 19, 2009 01:13 PM (HLCnI)

43 Go !!Sarah2012!!

You go gurrrrl!

Posted by: Happy Democratic Party Strategist at November 19, 2009 01:14 PM (RdKK8)

44 You're equating Ronald Reagan's America--which was almost 30 years ago, and vastly different demographically and politically than today--with Sarah Palin's chances four years from now. God help us.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:15 PM (daRzV)

45 In Florida, it's not allowed for a candidate who is registered as a Republican during a primary, to run as an independent afterwards. Rubio indicated that in an interview with Cavuto.

Posted by: Cubachi at November 19, 2009 01:17 PM (SXzw8)

46  Giuliani Palin 2012?

How about Jesus and Meyer Kahane?

Posted by: Happy Democratic Party Strategist at November 19, 2009 01:17 PM (RdKK8)

47 40 / Circa:  Yup. Heck the presidential vote is three years away. She needs to be in the mix.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 19, 2009 01:18 PM (s2bW4)

48 Once again, why is it the social and fiscal cons are the ones tearing this party apart?  How many of them have gone 3rd party or Dem vs the number of RINOs that have switched parties or gone 3rd party or endorsed the Dem in a hissy fit?

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 19, 2009 01:18 PM (NgoAe)

49

Giuliani Palin 2012?

How about Jesus and Meyer Kahane?

A white jesus could nevah win after 'duh people' voted for black jesus. Duh.

Posted by: Barc at November 19, 2009 01:19 PM (ia/06)

50 Geez, if only we had an election sometime between now and 2012. That would be cool.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 19, 2009 01:19 PM (DIYmd)

51 Railwriter,, Fuck off..
What gives you the insight to just proclaim Palin unelectable ?
 Ivy league sheepskin ?
Magic eight ball ?
Goat entrails ?

Posted by: awkward davies at November 19, 2009 01:20 PM (wb68R)

52 44 / railwriter: Are you saying she shouldn't even be tested in the primaries if she chooses to be?

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 19, 2009 01:20 PM (s2bW4)

53 39 I didn't say anything about "going left," you mouth-breather. I said Palin wasn't electable. Please try to keep up with the rest of the class.       IF this was immediately leading up to the elections of 2012,  I'd vote for Palin in a heartbeat and so would tens of millions of other people.  BUT this is only 2009 and we need to concentrate on matters at hand.  And that's winning back the House and Senate in 2010.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 19, 2009 01:20 PM (0f2vb)

54 You need a True Conservative to fire up a 3rd ticket.

Lou Dobbs/Tim LeHaye, bankrolled by the Koch boys?

Posted by: Happy Democratic Party Strategist at November 19, 2009 01:21 PM (RdKK8)

55

10 Yeah, but a lot of those who "liked" McCain were Dems and Dem-leaning Indies - they "liked" him, but they didn't "like-like" him

Then Dems who had a kinda-sorta crush on McLame promptly rape-raped him and voted for Obama.

Posted by: KingShamus at November 19, 2009 01:22 PM (8n1j5)

56

i'm getting sick of some people in the republican party. if crist were to run as a democrat i would flip out. Why can't republicans lose gracefully in primaries?  What happened to party loyalty?

You lose, you endorse your party nominee, then you back him.  It's that frigging simple. If huckabee and Romney could endorse that colostomy bag that is john mccain, why can't other memebers  of the party do it.

i know that crist hasn't done it yet and may not, but i honestly think it appears that it is only acceptable to dump on your party when the conservatives win in the primaries. I think that is partially why ny 23 got so much attention. it was the only time in my memory where a conservative ran as the independent against the liberal republican.

Posted by: Ben at November 19, 2009 01:23 PM (bftbi)

57 Gaia's recent Death Panel ruling is bringing woman to the R side in droves. Palin is in a perfect position to further the exodus and gain additional loyal supporters. She'll be the nominee in 2012.
 

Posted by: Barbarian at November 19, 2009 01:24 PM (EL+OC)

58

 She'll be a great asset to a real conservative, but the surest way to commit GOP suicide in 2012 would be to put her on the ticket, in either spot.  Anyone who doesn't think so has only been listening to the echo chamber and not the residents of the real world, many of whom feel a visceral dislike for her.

We'll see. If she keeps reaching people directly with Facebook, her book and whatever else she does, she may have a chance to convince people she'd be a good candidate. Or she could fall on her face. I don't think it's over yet!

Posted by: Mama AJ at November 19, 2009 01:24 PM (Be4xl)

59 Sooo, looking from this distance(too far to waste ammo) something like Oblabla-Mittens-Palin contest,  for a 70% turnout(Donks short of last contest on illegals, students, laborers, and yes, blacks).   GOP comes in third, say 22-24% of total, strong on both left coasts. 

Posted by: gary gulrud at November 19, 2009 01:24 PM (nf+jy)

60

Why on earth is the Obama crowd so afraid of Sarah Palin ?  It is absolutely amazing !

http://bit.ly/HKJSM

 

Posted by: Home of Joe Biden at November 19, 2009 01:25 PM (YpNr0)

61

48 Once again, why is it the social and fiscal cons are the ones tearing this party apart?  How many of them have gone 3rd party or Dem vs the number of RINOs that have switched parties or gone 3rd party or endorsed the Dem in a hissy fit?

 

 

You're John McCain's sock, aren't you.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 19, 2009 01:25 PM (0f2vb)

62 51  I live in one of the most lock-step, boneheaded librul/commie places in the country.  My fear is that, while many of these people may be so *over* Obama and his nonsense by then that they would likely stay home on election day, having Palin on the GOP ticket would very probably inspire a lot of them to come out specifically to vote against her.  Their hatred blazes with the heat of 1,000 suns.  It really does.

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 01:26 PM (9Wv2j)

63 If she's tested in the primaries, you can be sure that states with open primaries--like my own Virginia--will find Democrats drooling at the chance to get her to the big show---and then turn out in hordes to snuff her at the end. I did that two times with the Right Reverend Jesse Jackson back in the day during primaries, just to futz with their side of the ledger. Anybody know a Dem neighbor who voted for McCain in the primaries? Yep, thought so. I hope she doesn't run. If she does, I hope her support collapses early, because I think she'd get a drubbing. If she were the nominee, as I said earlier, I'd support her, but I'd be amazed that the GOP had lost its senses enough to nominate someone who can't win.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:27 PM (daRzV)

64 So that allahpuke dude really must not like Palin, but still can't help himself using her name in just about every post he writes.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 19, 2009 01:28 PM (DIYmd)

65 I'd be amazed that the GOP had lost its senses enough to nominate someone who can't win AGAIN.

fify

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 01:29 PM (9Wv2j)

66

8 Is he any relation to Jesus Crist?

Jesus Crist from Juarez?  I think he's a brother-in-law.

Posted by: FUBAR at November 19, 2009 01:30 PM (fstYb)

67 Posted by: Happy Democratic Party Strategist at November 19, 2009 06:21 PM (RdKK

Boy, erg just never goes away, does it?

Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at November 19, 2009 01:31 PM (aC0uO)

68 6 What the hell is wrong with the Republican party leaders?

Dede was hand picked...and jumped ship.

Our party's nominee in 2008 seriously considered flipping parties in 2004.

And now in an election that a conservative should be able to win, the party wants to run a squish who might also jump ship if the voters reject him?

Posted by: 18-1 at November 19, 2009 05:53 PM (7BU4a)

Simply: It's no fun being a Republican politician.  Democrats get to take over things, run things, attempt to make the world better.  The fact that it doesn't, doesn't matter.

People like Barney Frank and Joe Biden are considered experts even though they've failed at everything.  They get the added benefit of insulation by the MSM.  Even FoxNews doesn't cover for Republican corruption.  On the contrary, conservatives and Republicans are far too eager to throw inconvenient people under the bus.

Liberals get to dole out money to their friends.  Legally.  They are considered important in their peer group, rock stars.  Republican politicians are viewed by their base as public servants.  What fun is that?  It's good to be the king, but it sucks deferring to the people.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 19, 2009 01:34 PM (T0NGe)

69

Punting meaning "go with a squish in a district that is squish or liberal-ish."

The problem is that our squishes tend to get more liberal, while their squishes tend to get more liberal.

Posted by: FUBAR at November 19, 2009 01:34 PM (fstYb)

70
...many of whom feel a visceral dislike for her.
That would be democrats, no? We sure wouldn't want to nominate someone they dislike! Better to stick with a bass playing cracker who says getting a guitar for Christmas saved his life. Or a Governor elected to office by the same folks who elected Jesse "the Body" Ventura. Or some weak wristed Rino like Mitt or Jindal. Maybe McCain would run again. Or Newt could lead us back to teh promised land. Hey, Lindsey sure looked good yesterday. What is he doing in 2012? No visceral dislike of those dwarfs, is there?
I want  a full-on Bastard who will not go along to get along. Someone strong enough to pull a wave of congressmen into office who will shut down the NEA, NPR, numerous departments, untold programs and prosecute criminals like Frank and Dodd. The only names that come to mind are Palin, Bolton and Cheney.


Posted by: Kyle Canyon at November 19, 2009 01:34 PM (Oxen1)

71 Can anyone spot the concern troll?

Posted by: FUBAR at November 19, 2009 01:35 PM (fstYb)

72 Desdemona is a ho-bag!!!1!

Posted by: Iago at November 19, 2009 01:35 PM (hCQG5)

73 I agree that Palin can't win as things stand.  But the more appearances she makes where she's likable, and the more she speaks common sense on Facebook, the more that'll change.  We don't know what kind of massive frakkups Obama's going to perpetrate between now and 2012 (or even 2010, for that matter).

Otherwise people like railwriter need to explain why the DNC is spending valuable money to attack an unemployed housewife on a book tour.  The DNC isn't stupid like the RNC: they never trusted Arlen Spectre for a second and they're running a primary challenger against him.  So clearly they believe she's a real threat even now.

Regarding Crist, he's not the next Scuzzy, he's the next Spectre.  He'll do anything to hold office, and it's embarrassing to watch at times.

Posted by: Ian S. at November 19, 2009 01:37 PM (p05LM)

74 railwriter:  ...but I'd be amazed that the GOP had lost its senses enough to nominate someone who can't win.

Heh.  Two words for you dude:  John McCain.

(it's one word for Joe Biden, I guess)

Posted by: SlaveDog at November 19, 2009 01:37 PM (W+E+o)

75 Great polls. But, Kos polls are about as reliable and trustworthy as an Obama campaign promise. Example: Kos had Corzine winning by 3 (so, off 9) and only had McDonnell winning Virginia by 10 (off .

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 19, 2009 01:37 PM (V9SYy)

76 IMHO, by the time 2012 rolls around anyone with a message of fiscal conservatism, strong national security, supporting the military, and a definite will to control our borders and deal with the illegals, is going to win the election.  Simple as that.  If it's Sarah Palin that we nominate, she'll win.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 19, 2009 01:39 PM (0f2vb)

77 It appears a bunch of Allahpuds leg humpers are now here en masse.

FYI, Ace doesn't like his slacks soiled.

Posted by: Barbarian at November 19, 2009 01:39 PM (EL+OC)

78

Let me rephrase my earlier post. Kos polls are to accuracy and reliability as erg is to logic and reasoning.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 19, 2009 01:40 PM (V9SYy)

79 Can a conservative win the repub primaries as they are set up?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 19, 2009 01:41 PM (dQdrY)

80 Both Rubio and Crist are bad news.  If you lived here in FL, you wouldn't want either of them in office.  Add in the "kingmaker" Greer to the mix, and you could shovel the corruption and B.S. into your garden.  (Too bad it would kill the tomatoes, though...)

Posted by: w'evver at November 19, 2009 01:42 PM (1kwr2)

81 Crist is a defacto liberal democrat, not even a squish.  He makes past FL democrat governors Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham look like Genghis Khan.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 19, 2009 01:43 PM (ii3ri)

82 >>>I agree that Palin can't win as things stand. But the more appearances she makes where she's likable, and the more she speaks common sense on Facebook, the more that'll change. Maybe but remember Dan Quayle did a lot to repair his image, but it wasn't enough. They really did Quaylize Palin. I am a Palin-skeptic. I am open to her, but I am worried that she is currently unelectable and so damaged she won't be able to repair. I support her efforts and am willing to change my mind.

Posted by: ace at November 19, 2009 01:43 PM (jlvw3)

83  Crist is a defacto liberal democrat, not even a squish.  He makes past FL democrat governors Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham look like Genghis Khan.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 19, 2009 06:43 PM (ii3ri)

And yet, the NRSC thinks he's dreamy. What's up with that?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 19, 2009 01:44 PM (dQdrY)

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Posted by: Barc at November 19, 2009 01:46 PM (ia/06)

86 Everyone I know likes her and would vote for her in a minute. Well there still is that one 23 yr old receptionist in the office that still likes him but she doesn't count.

Posted by: Bosk at November 19, 2009 01:46 PM (pUO5u)

87

You have to understand the crowd effect in these polls.  it is socially unacceptable to not like Obama  thus his polls numbers appear to be higher than they are as people tell pollester they like him not his policies.   At the same time the media has made it socially unacceptable to like Palin.  thus people will say they LIKE her policies but not her to pollesters. 

 

However elections tend to show that the socially unacceptable does not hold sway once in the voting booth and people opionions line up with policies when they cast their vote.

Posted by: unseen at November 19, 2009 01:47 PM (aVGmX)

88 I don't need to explain anything, Ian, but because you mention it, I'll answer your question with a few of my own. What is the DNC "spending to attack her?" I'll bet you've got a figure close to hand. I haven't heard them sounding like they need to; why would they, when the chatterati will do their work for them? Do you think she'd win if she was the GOP nominee? No prevarication, no explanation. Do you, really? Would you agree that Democrats and independents who don't like her dislike her for who she is rather than what her policy positions are? I think so. Ask one; ask your nearest Democratic friend what they think of Palin, and see if one of them--a single one--cites her position on anything. See, she could change her political views, but she can't change who she is, and that's what they hate. Don't ask me why, but that's the death-knell for Sarah Palin. Oh, and DNC money being "valuable?" Have you seen any indication from the DNC that they're short of lucre?

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:47 PM (daRzV)

89 A caveat: I've seen just enough politics to know that the incumbent can preside over enough greased shit on ballbearings that Alfred E. Neuman could win, going away. I'm just betting that The One's mistakes aren't going to be that screwed. Even then, it's a close-run thing, with Palin or anyone else sounding remotely conservative. The sheep need their free stuff, and they'll keep Santa in business unless it's really, really, really fucked up.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:51 PM (daRzV)

90 Palin is unelectable now but who isn't? McCain v. Obama today, who wins?

Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 19, 2009 01:52 PM (muUqs)

91

We're a long way from 2012. Reagan was unelectable until there was Carter. Giuliani was unelectable until Dinkins. The last thing the electorate will want in 2012 is an elitist or a wonk.

Most of Sarah Palin's public image is a product of media slander, incompetent McCain staffers, and her own rookie miscues. She has almost three years to rehabilitate that image, and this book tour is only her first step. 

Posted by: lyle at November 19, 2009 01:54 PM (ulSXV)

92 That's a damn good question. I'm sure I don't have a good answer.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:54 PM (daRzV)

93

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Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 19, 2009 01:54 PM (ujg0T)

94

I believe Palin is setting her self up to be more of a King maker than to actually be king.

Things can change a lot in 2 years though.It would not surprise me to see her run.If she sticks to her message and does'nt allow it to be diluted I believe she would do well in a national election.

 

Posted by: vae victus at November 19, 2009 01:55 PM (oi4Yx)

95

"But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or even a reform, not even in the State Senate."

I don't think I can vote for a woman who thinks Obama wrote his books. Unless she knowingly avoided the word 'wrote'. Hmmm.

Posted by: Barc at November 19, 2009 01:57 PM (ia/06)

96

Maybe but remember Dan Quayle did a lot to repair his image, but it wasn't enough. They really did Quaylize Palin.

Palin is young and wet behind the ears.

In retrospect, unhitching herself from the McCain wagon may be the best thing she ever did. Quayle unfortunately *did* get hitched to Bush the Elder, and went down in flames with him. I think he also decided "fuck this" and went home to retire early.


 

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 19, 2009 01:57 PM (ujg0T)

97 82 >>>I agree that Palin can't win as things stand. But the more appearances she makes where she's likable, and the more she speaks common sense on Facebook, the more that'll change.

Maybe but remember Dan Quayle did a lot to repair his image, but it wasn't enough. They really did Quaylize Palin.

I am a Palin-skeptic. I am open to her, but I am worried that she is currently unelectable and so damaged she won't be able to repair.

I support her efforts and am willing to change my mind.

Posted by: ace at November 19, 2009 06:43 PM

 

 

 

Whatever.  I still think it's way too early to postulate on 2012.  Too many "things" (another 9/11?) can happen between now and then.  What Sarah is doing out there as the predominat conservative is getting our message out now.  And I know she's not alone in this endeavor i.e.:  Michelle Bachmann, Liz Cheney, talk-radio hosts, etc.  But she has the spotlight NOW, and as far as I'm concerned, she's doing a hell of a good job.  

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at November 19, 2009 01:57 PM (0f2vb)

98 So, what is the offical office pool on when Kos changes his mind and backtracks from Crist running on a Democrat? I'd like June 10, 2010 please.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 19, 2009 01:58 PM (V9SYy)

99 I'll tell you who ought to have gotten into politics--Marilyn Quayle. That chick was sharp, sharp as a tack.

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 01:59 PM (daRzV)

100

Can a conservative win the repub primaries as they are set up?

Unfortunately, I think not, they are too early, front loaded, and worst of all "open" to political sabotage. The GOP must change this.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 19, 2009 01:59 PM (ujg0T)

101 I believe Palin is setting her self up to be more of a King maker than to actually be king.

That is my fervent hope and, as I see it, the best case scenario.  I just know far too many people who took an instant, insupportable, uncomprehending, gut-level aversion to her, the second she got on the national radar.  I know moderate Dems who would easily vote against Obama, but not if they had to vote for Palin.

Because of that, I don't believe that any amount of exposure or rational appeal will alter the fact that she will be a huge GOTV tool for anyone running against her.  It's sad and I don't like it, but it's what I'm seeing.  Here on the ground in lala land.

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 01:59 PM (9Wv2j)

102

I've said it before and I'll say it again: elections are always referendums on the incumbent. If by some quirk of fate Keynesian economics and pump priming and massive entitlement programs cause prosperity for the first time in the history of the world, then we will lose in 2012 no matter who we run.

However, if unemployment is high, and the economy is sluggish, and the deficits continue to be sky high, and (depending on the healthcare bill) people are getting their first taste of socialized healthcare, then we will win. That's what the issue is, and it should not be as hard as it is, what with McCain completely concedeing the economic argument to the Dems last year.

I think a lot of this is that people who think they are free marketeers, people who think they believe in the power of the private sector, people who think they know that the government creates problems, these people don't really believe that in their bones. They are scared to death that Obamanomics will actually work, and that if we stake out a strong position, if we make strong predictions, then we will look like fools in 2012.

There is no need to fear. The reputation Keynsianism enjoys is entirely a product of the conflation of the New Deal with the immense contracts for the American defense industry, steel, chemicals, etc. caused by WWII. The New Deal was an abject failure. Obamanomics will be an abject failure.

We need to start laying the groundwork for a conservative counterrevolution. There has not been a conservative President and a conservative Congress seated simultaneously since the 20s. The Dems make their case. They just attack the Republicans and then the power falls into their lap. Then they do the things they want to do. I want to do that. I'm sick and tired of watching my freedom get traded away piece by piece. I want it stopped. Stop compromising with them, they never compromise with us. More importantly, some things are not up for compromise. My freedom is not up for majority vote. We are at a point in this country where I don't feel much love at all for my government or for fully half my fellow citizens. Well meaning fools will ruin us all, and I'm sick of me and mine picking up the mess. That's why I like Sarah. She doesn't whine, she doesn't make excuses. She handles shit. You have no idea how much I want a President I can ignore for a week in safety. Every day I flip on the monitor wondering what Barry did today. I want to be able to safely ignore my government. That's what the American Dream is.

When the hell did we lose that?

Posted by: Britt at November 19, 2009 01:59 PM (ybKBs)

103 But we also have to keep in mind that 4th and 25 is a really good time to punt.

Punting meaning "go with a squish in a district that is squish or liberal-ish."

Oh I agree, for sure. But it seems like - to continue the metaphor - that the GOP/squishes are too willing to punt on first down.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 19, 2009 02:00 PM (ZXnUe)

104 Peaches--your political surroundings don't sound that different from mine. If you don't mind my asking, what state do you live in?

Posted by: railwriter at November 19, 2009 02:02 PM (daRzV)

105

But we also have to keep in mind that 4th and 25 is a really good time to punt.

Screw that, Brady, run the crossing route to Moss.

Posted by: Bill Belicheck at November 19, 2009 02:03 PM (V9SYy)

106 I just hope Sarah does not peak to early

Posted by: Todd (I wish my last name was Palin) at November 19, 2009 02:03 PM (LLOGQ)

107 Dude, I'm in Venice, California -- where the debris meets the sea

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 02:04 PM (9Wv2j)

108 Why do bloggers in New York and DC hate Sarah Palin?

Posted by: Purity Republican at November 19, 2009 02:04 PM (muUqs)

109

Somebody was saying the other day that there are really only two themes in politics. "It's a Brand New Day" versus "Tried, Tested, and Reliable".

The public rolled the dice on "Brand New Day" with Obama. If they get sick of him they are likely to turn to the second option rather than try the first again. And Palin is not going to be that second option.

Posted by: flenser at November 19, 2009 02:04 PM (+rSUG)

110 "She's unelectable,"

You just cannot flat out say that.

She's not going to lose any state McCain won for starters.

That means only Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Florida need be switched.  That is about 100 electoral votes.

Other than Michigan, those are all slightly GOP leaning states.  The economy is sooo bad in Michigan (and will certainly be in 2012) that Michigan is definitely in play.

This is assuming O keeps all his other states (New Hampshire, PA and Colorado,  I'm looking at you).

She does not have to get any votes in New England (except maybe New Hampshire) or the West Coast to win.

She can make it a race.  She is no weaker than any other leading contenders who all have their own (but different) weaknesses.  I'm not saying its a lock but it is certainly doable.

Plus, didn't we do that electable bit in 2008 with McCain?  Why don't we nominate who we want and let the chips fall.

Posted by: Bob from Ohio at November 19, 2009 02:04 PM (cQlDu)

111

There is one continuos point here at the AOSHQ that drives me nuts: the argument that if all the Republican primaries were closed John McCain never would of won the 2008 nomination. Pop quiz: guess who won the most closed primaries on Super Tuesday?

I'll wait...............

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 19, 2009 02:05 PM (V9SYy)

112 Here on the ground in lala land.

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 06:59 PM (9Wv2j)

Kalifornia ain't gonna vote for the republican anyway, so I do not give a flying damn what idiot Kalifornia democrats think. The popular vote don't count.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 19, 2009 02:05 PM (dQdrY)

113 "Oh I agree, for sure. But it seems like - to continue the metaphor - that the GOP/squishes are too willing to punt on first down."

I'll continue the metaphor further . . .

They will punt on first down with less than 2 minutes left in the game up by 2 points with the opposition having no timeouts left so the sports media doesn't call them racist or mean for trying to win the game.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 19, 2009 02:06 PM (NgoAe)

114

"I know moderate Dems who would easily vote against Obama, but not if they had to vote for Palin."

 

Trust me, after 4 years of the odumbass, people will be ready to shitcan  him

Posted by: Todd (I wish my last name was Palin) at November 19, 2009 02:06 PM (LLOGQ)

115 Palin has no shot at the presidency.  She is strictly cabinet material.

Posted by: Feh at November 19, 2009 02:08 PM (Hen++)

116 And I don't want her to be president.  I want her to bulldog the rollback of this Congress' ruinous legislation.

Posted by: Feh at November 19, 2009 02:09 PM (Hen++)

117 She's not going to lose any state McCain won for starters.

That means only Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Florida need be switched.  That is about 100 electoral votes.

That was before they had the "quitter" label to fling at her.  And don't think they won't.  And don't think it won't be a deciding factor for the fence-sitters.

Posted by: Peaches at November 19, 2009 02:09 PM (9Wv2j)

118 #115 just like they won't have Nixon to kick around anymore and Clinton was surely not going to be reelected after 1994.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 19, 2009 02:09 PM (NgoAe)

119 Hudshchie fears of republicans have really proved to be true. Though at all and not as it was expected in the beginning. Time will tell that will be further.

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