July 08, 2008

Obama's Flip-Flops =/= Kerry's
— Ace

The anti-Obama ad that DrewM. posted is effective, but I think the message needs to be sharpened.

John Kerry flip-flopped to the left during the primaries to outflank the hard-left Dean on Iraq. The flip-flop secured him the nomination, but hurt him in the general election. He was left with a recently-adopted left position he could not easily abandon after having already flip-flopped to it months earlier.

The flip-flop hurt him two ways: He was shown to be a panderer and willing to adopt any position to advance his political interests, and he was adopting positions disfavored by the middlish independent voters vital to winning the presidency.

Obama's flip-flop is the other way. He began by strongly pandering to the left -- a la Howard Dean. Hillary was in John Kerry's position during the primaries -- she had to move further and further left to appeal to the harder-left voters of the Democratic primaries (and especially the very hard left activist types that bother showing up for eight hour caucuses). She failed, of course. No matter how far to the left she moved, Obama was always two steps further to the left.

But now it's general campaign season, and Obama is flip-flopping, not to the left as Kerry did, but to the center.

So while he will be damaged by such principle-free mercenary opportunism, he does not have to fear that, like Kerry, he had made himself less electable among independents and those in the squishy middle. Indeed, Obama's flip-flops make him more palatable to the center.

I'm not sure how McCain and the RNC should sharpen their ads to hurt Obama more, but I do think they need to do it. As it stands, a centrist swing voter may acknowledge that Obama is just another politician willing to adopt whatever position will appeal to the center swing voters... but, from their vantage point, that's a good thing. People don't like pandering, but they don't mind it so much when they themselves are being pandered to.

It needs to be said, either explicitly or strongly impliedly, that Obama's current positions are dishonest and not his true positions, that he will flip-flop-flip right back to his natural home on the far left the moment he's elected President. It's not enough to point out Obama's flip-flops, given that his current positions are actually vote-winners as far as the independent voters are concerned. One has to make the case that his positions should win no independent votes, because they're simply expedient, convenient lies.

I'm not a professional politico of course, and perhaps McCain and the RNC have focus-grouped all that and determined that their current ads make the case in the most effective way possible. Perhaps going further and explicitly stating that Obama is a liar who will say anything to get elected -- and then proceed to enact his true-believer hard-left agenda -- is a bridge too far and alienates more voters than it convinces.

But I can't help but think that McCain's current ad on Obama's flip-flopping is actually helpful to Obama, reassuring middle-third voters that, while Obama has taken a lot of far-left positions to fool the pot-addled dupes of the Democratic left fringe, he's actually quite a sensible, pragmatic, cautious and even conservatively-inclined fellow. Sure, he lied to those fools and freaks. But now we see what he really thinks, and what he really thinks is quite a bit more palatable than what he previously claimed to have thought.

Obama is just another politician is actually a campaign slogan on Obama's behalf when contrasted with the other possible meme that could define him, Obama is a hard-left radical willing to baldly lie to achieve power and then enact his Age of Aquarius program.

Obviously Obama is lying to someone. He either lied previously to the lefty activists that dominate the Democratic primary, or he's lying to the centrist voters he hopes to court now.

If Obama is permitted to "re-calibrate" and redefine all his positions so that centrist voters think that he's now telling the truth, that's a net-positive for Obama. He's not a dangerous lefty lunatic is a more potent and positive message than He's a flip-flopper is a negative one.

And McCain and the RNC have to fight that conclusion, not simply note that he's taken contrary positions at the most politically-expedient moments.

Whether it's gun rights, or late-term abortions, or Iraq, or the flag-lapel pin, Obama's current positions are more attractive than his prior ones. It does the Republicans little good to simply advertise Obama's current crop of positions of strong centrist appeal.

Obama's doing the same thing. He's also advertising these new, more appealing positions. (If not advertising them via paid media, he's certainly advertising them with free media speeches and press opportunities.)

Why help Obama's media campaign by spending precious political dollars reinforcing the message Obama's got $350 million to promote himself?

Possible Explanation? The Republicans may have determined, by focus-groups and polls, that Obama is surrounded by such an aura of (false) virtue that direct, explicit attacks on his basic goodness and near-divinity will not sell. At least not yet. Before stronger attacks may be made against him (and have any hope of persuading the public), perhaps they have determined that the teflon sheen of righteousness must be scratched off him. Before the tough attacks come out, he must first be reduced from Savior to politician.

And only then, when he stands in the public imagination as what he actually is -- just another politician -- can the next step be taken, casting him as politician who is lying and who will pursue a hidden agenda that the majority of the public does not favor.

So perhaps these ads are weak and tentative because weak and tentative is all that is possible at the moment.

That may be the case. But at some point -- even if the polls are still showing Obama's Magic Negro Halo mostly intact and a-glow -- McCain and the GOP are going to have to hit the switch and accuse him of a dishonest and covert radicalism.

Posted by: Ace at 12:54 PM | Comments (246)
Post contains 1027 words, total size 6 kb.

1 I think the Right's biggest problem is their failure to engage in nasty, hard-ball fights. So what if Obama flip-flopped? Just attack him on whichever of his myriad positions on an issue is most vulnerable, using his own words (video is preferable), and then force him to repeat his flip-flops continuously.

Posted by: Erik The Red at July 08, 2008 01:07 PM (4Tslg)

2

"Perhaps going further and explicitly stating that Obama is a liar who will say anything to get elected -- and then proceed to enact his true-believer hard-left agenda -- is a bridge too far and alienates more voters than it convinces."

YouTUBE Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi "Obama is a Muslim"

1: This Obama is a Muslim, a Kenyan and American national.

1:57 shocked Arab friends

2:00-2:45 Egyptian "Clearance Sale" election propaganda lies/deceit, say anything to get elected.

3: Obama is ignorant of International politics, particularly of the Middle East.

Gaddafi explicitly stated that Obama is a liar who will say anything to get elected, but to be patient even when insulted because once elected, Obama would then proceed to enact his true-believer hard-left MUSLIM agenda.

RNC, Warm them up with the current ad. Meanwhile, keep all of the flops on file for a later ad, "stroll down memory lane" concluded with a bus running over the voter holding the camera.

Posted by: maverick muse at July 08, 2008 01:15 PM (F1b/5)

3 An alternative explanation: the Republican party has decided it's more comfortable as a minority, because it means they don't get taunted so much by the French and John Stewart, so they cooked up a nomination process that gave the nod to the most Democratic candidate running, and now they're running out the clock until the great coronation.

Posted by: bgates at July 08, 2008 01:25 PM (RzFhF)

4 Ace, a candidate's propensity to flip-flop isn't important merely because of the issues on which he switches, but as a negative character trait which affects voters' decisions.

In 2004, John Kerry did not lose simply because he flip-flopped on the Iraq War. He lost (in part) because he was branded with the powerful label: "Flip-Flop." It was a shorthand for an undesirable character trait in a president.

This past winter, Mit Romney lost in part because he was branded as a flip-flopper. Whether it was true or not didn't matter. Nor did it make a difference that he flopped to the right, which in a primary should have helped him. Rather, it was a shorthand way for his detractors to expose a negative character trait for inconstancy.

The same is true for Barack Obama. It doesn't matter what issues he's flip-flopping on, or even which direction he's going. The fact is, he's faithless and unreliable. At this point, undecided voters are more likely to make their decisions based on his perceived character traits than on his claimed policy positions.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at July 08, 2008 01:25 PM (WIxQ1)

5

Are there realy any people in the middle anymore? Obama is a liar like all pols, but for the past year + he has been hard left. Who is going to believe him now?

If he comes out and said he was wrong about the surge he loses the left. and the right does not believe him. So how does he win? The yots don't vote.period

Posted by: Lou at July 08, 2008 01:27 PM (RNwpX)

6

There are many democrats who decidedly could not care less about any flip flopping since their man Kerry lost on account of the term as it applied perfectly. Ever since, they've decided WTF to flips and flops in pursuit of winning whoever, whatever.

The term has been over used, applied to any tiny variation, now monotonous, even predictable. The public has been oversaturated with it, and many avid proponents of Obama in particular have since decided they were wrong to care about it in the first place.

To a certain extent, I don't think that flip/flop matters so much to the same extent today for republicans as when applied so forcefully against Kerry. 

Compound the overuse syndrome ineffectivity with the typical American housewife/consumer penchant for the new and improved "as seen on TV!" commercial "refinement".

btw: obama makes me sick; I am not his apologist. Blame Obama for the salmonella outbreak; let bobama taste the anti-president public epidemic.

Posted by: maverick muse at July 08, 2008 02:09 PM (F1b/5)

7

@ The American Thinker today, read the great bio synopsis exposing the inside Obama.

There is a core set of values directing BHO's political life. Obama wants unity as in making us subserviant to him.  Change For Marx!

***

Jareth: I ask for so little. Just fear me, love me, do as I say and I will be your slave.

Hoggle: And you wouldn't be so brave if you'd ever smelled the Bog of Eternal Stench. It's, it's...

Sarah: Is that all it does, is smell?

Hoggle: Oh, believe me, that's enough! But the worst thing is, if you so much as set a foot in the Bog of Stench, you'll smell bad for the rest of your life. It'll never wash off.

Sarah: That's not fair!

Jareth: You say that so often, I wonder what your basis for comparison is?

from Labyrinth

***

Letting bobama win to teach the GOP a lesson is setting your foot in the Bog of Stench. It will never wash off.

Posted by: maverick muse at July 08, 2008 02:21 PM (F1b/5)

8 first!

Posted by: OregonMuse at July 08, 2008 05:02 PM (FO+YO)

9 I drop my pants and moon my pasty white butt at you, you.

Posted by: OregonMuse at July 08, 2008 05:03 PM (FO+YO)

10 He's not a dangerous lefty lunatic is a more potent and positive message than He's a flip-flopper is a negative one.

That would be an interesting campaign slogan: "Obama: not a dangerous lefty lunatic".

Posted by: OregonMuse at July 08, 2008 05:06 PM (FO+YO)

11 I would keep the powder dry on the Flip/Flop line of attack for a while. Let Obama keep doing it until the perception is mainstream. Then jump on that shit. 

Posted by: runninrebel at July 08, 2008 05:10 PM (0n9wc)

12 No matter how far to the left she moved, Obama was always two steps further to the left.

Yeah, Barack is funny like that. He's also a centrist on every issuse, his media "groupies" have explained to me. Ted Koppel was fellating the Obamessiah last Sunday by telling the idiots who watch ABC News that Obama has the ability to be everything to everyone and therefore qualified to be president.

Yes, this is how the DNC wing in the media is explaining Obama's flip-flopping: Obama is simply reaching out to all Americans. He's a uniter!

Posted by: Bart at July 08, 2008 05:11 PM (HU2Du)

13

I think retarded moderates just need a brief BHO history lesson and the'll understand that BHO is a lunatic lefty.  And his sudden moderation is complete BS.

Posted by: Eddie Baby at July 08, 2008 05:15 PM (a1oRP)

14 Just quit resisting. You'll only be assimilated tired.

Posted by: Borg Obama at July 08, 2008 05:16 PM (sI5Ho)

15 What Borg Obama said.

Posted by: The Deciders at July 08, 2008 05:17 PM (sI5Ho)

16 OT but...Michael Vick declared bankruptcy today. Why is he in jail, again? I mean, Obama's terrorist/murderer friends are free, why is Vick in prison?

Because of stupid dogs? Bullshit!

Posted by: Bart at July 08, 2008 05:20 PM (HU2Du)

17

It's just like with the Rev. Wright thing--he chose to be a part of that church for 20 years. He's been a bleeding heart liberal for always. Actions matter more than words. Line 10 votes up vs. one speech with pretty centrist words and it's pretty easy to see which one is really him.

Perhaps going further and explicitly stating that Obama is a liar who will say anything to get elected -- and then proceed to enact his true-believer hard-left agenda -- is a bridge too far and alienates more voters than it convinces.

I don't know. Seems like I listen more to the political commercials that list what someone actually voted on than other kinds. They don't seem too harsh to me.

Posted by: MamaAJ at July 08, 2008 05:24 PM (X6Zdh)

18

This is starting to feel an awful lot like the man from Hope with a lot less personal baggage.  It's not about issues or facts it's about a personality.

I don't think it much matters what McCain does at this point.  If Obama doesn't step on his own crank in some spectacular way, he's gonna glide into office.

yeesh

Posted by: JackStraw at July 08, 2008 05:34 PM (VBon8)

19

Did someone say "halo"?

http://tinyurl.com/5tlq89

 

Posted by: andycanuck at July 08, 2008 05:35 PM (3EcfL)

20 The man from Hope garnered 43% of the vote so I don't really see a problem. Not to mention that Clinton was a Grade A top notch bullshitter on teleprompter and off the cuff. That pig-fucker could sell ice to Eskimos.

Obama can't muster that kind of charisma. He's spent his load getting his smallish cult together in the primaries and I don't see any new members that will be willing to covert now that he is dirtied up.

Posted by: runninrebel at July 08, 2008 05:40 PM (0n9wc)

21

The man from Hope garnered 43% of the vote so I don't really see a problem.

Against a relatively popular, sitting President with a potent 3rd party candidate who took votes from both sides of the aisle.  More from Bush but both sides.  McCain is Bob Dole without the warmth, charisma or party support at possibly the lowest point for Republicans in the last 50 years.

Obama can't muster that kind of charisma.

McCain lover, please.  Obama is drawing record crowds, raising record amounts of money, putting red states in play and bringing tons of new people into the process.  He's going to get 105% of the black vote, a huge percentage of the Latino vote, the young and stupid is a lock.  He's going to fill Invesco for his acceptance speech and it will be a stage managed Hollywood blockbuster.  He's a frigging rock star.  Clinton was a lip biting feel your pain empathy machine.  Obama is the messiah.

Posted by: JackStraw at July 08, 2008 05:55 PM (VBon8)

22

Yeah, we are at the live boy/dead girl phase of the campaign, if he can avoid those two pitfalls, game over.

Although, Jack, you raise an interesting point.  Is HillBill just going to sit back and let this guy out Clinton Clinton.  They are the X factor, and maybe I'm giving them to much credit, but I wouldn't put one thing past them.  And spite is as good a motivator as any for ol' Hill.

Posted by: Judd at July 08, 2008 06:24 PM (BXHeE)

23

Judd-

I put nothing past the Clintons.  But I don't see it as HillBill, I see it as Bill Clinton, period.  Hillary is a non-entity without him.  She would have been a local party organizer in Wellesley or Cambridge had she not married Bill and I think her star is in descent.

Bill is a narcissistic animal who cares about one thing and one thing only, Bill. He will extract his ounce of flesh from Obama but in the end he will get behind the effort because it's in his best interest.  If he appears to be hurting Obama, he will take a huge hit and that he won't do.  My guess is Bill finds a way to eventually claim that Obama is the natural successor to the role he created. And if Bill flops, Hill will come along for the ride.

Remember, buy one Clinton and you get two.

Posted by: JackStraw at July 08, 2008 06:34 PM (VBon8)

24 What JackStraw said. Obama can, does, and will say anything... and he'll get away with it. You see it every day. Has anyone ever changed positions as dramatically and frequently as this guy? Seriously. Ever?

And why does he do it? Because He can.

The Washington Post can write a historical perspective of Obama's faith (timed to coincide with the Obama campaign to court evangelicals and the non-secular moderates that constitute most of America) and neglect to mention "Reverend" Wright or define the poison pit that has been the Trinity United Church of Christ.

That's everything you need to know in one tight, neat, custom wrapped propaganda piece. It does not matter one whit what He says. Or really, for that matter, what McCain says. Obama has sycophants singing hosannas. McCain has... McCain has... well, I can't really think of that many strongly on his side. Except for that committed class of "Undecideds." They're reliably, um, silent. Them, the GOP leadership, and a room full of crickets will mesmerize you into a deep slumber.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at July 08, 2008 06:34 PM (sI5Ho)

25 McCain needs new campaign managers.  The ones he has are unimaginative, timid, and either too polite or too dull to go after Obama.  Practically every utterance of Barry's contains gaping holes of illogic, dishonesty, inconsistency with past positions, cheap rhetorical tricks, vagueness, naivety, vanity and childishly thin-skinned defensiveness. He is such an easy mark.  Anyone up to the job could clobber him with his own words over and over again.

Posted by: erwin at July 08, 2008 06:39 PM (P0OUQ)

26 Maybe most Republican power-brokers just like democrats better than they do Republicans. They certainly seem more sensitive to democrat's opinions than Republican's, and less likely to question democrats motives than they are Republican's motives.

Posted by: just asking at July 08, 2008 07:09 PM (1g+FW)

27 I mean, I'm not a Republican,and I noticed.  How could Republicans have missed it?  Just asking...

Posted by: just asking at July 08, 2008 07:26 PM (1g+FW)

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Posted by: Nice Deb at July 08, 2008 07:47 PM (JCsaM)

29 Obama is a lock.  You know it, I know it and we know it because McCain knows it.  Soros played this one perfectly.

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Posted by: ˙ɐɯɐqo ˙q at July 08, 2008 08:21 PM (kJVzu)

31 McCain needs to adopt the slogan "Actions speak louder than words" and point out that Obama's actions speak more to his true position than whatever he says.  Many people are looking for someone who can bring an end to what they see as the divisiveness that has supposedly dominated politics.  McCain needs to point out that he has actually taken actions to reach across the aisle and get a bipartisan agenda accomplished.  Obama, meanwhile, has only ever criticized and done nothing, and that's why he's one of the most partisan voters in the Senate.  This is a measurable, quantifiable fact.  McCain can't worry about the people who have fallen in love with Obama.  There's no way to get their vote.  He has to go for the moderates, and he has to do a lot better than he is now.  Publicly comparing their records will mean a lot to a lot of people.

Posted by: JohnJ at July 08, 2008 08:59 PM (Y7DTI)

32

It seems to me that instead of focusing on his recent "flips" to the center, McCain and the GOP should simply be using his previous far-left positions in ads - actually quoting him or showing him speaking wherever possible - with strong focus on the dates of the positions/statements.  In other words, completely ignore the recent total and complete changes of policy/philosophy that Obama is trying to sell and focus on what his position were for all of his life up until 2 months ago.

then, the burden will be on Obama to come forward and defend against the ads portraying his long-held and announced far-left positions by saying, essentially - "hey, now that the primary is over I have changed all of my long-held and expoused positions and am not so far left anymore".

It seems to me that such a tactic would put Obama in a bind.  Either he lets the ads demonstrating his far-leftness stand, or he actively goes out and tells people just how craven and pandering he is by saying "sure that used to be my position 1 month ago, but now I have a new position".

Either way, it hurts Obama.

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