September 22, 2008
— Gabriel Malor He's giving up on North Dakota, Georgia, Idaho, and Alaska. Of course, they're making it about race.
The Associated Press reported this evening and an Obama spokeswoman confirmed that the Chicago-based campaign is pulling its 50-some staffers out of the heavily Republican state full of embittered small towns and shipping the workers east to Minnesota and Wisconsin, where the Democrat's prospects seem brighter and closer.
John Kerry did the best of recent Democrats there, getting 36% of the North Dakota vote in 2004 -- 3 percentage points more than Al Gore in 2000.
The abandonment of at least one Midwestern state by Obama comes as a new AP poll indicates that race could play a significant role in deciding a close national election. (See video.) Some experts
estimate the first African American candidate of a major party might be as much as 6 percentage points more ahead if he wasn't black.
Yes, all of that editorializing ("embittered small towns") is in the original.
These four states are indicators of where the contest is going and which dreams (yes, pipe-dreams) the Democrats are giving up on.
Georgia: the Obama campaign had dared to hope that it could pick up some Southern states with large black populations. Georgia was the most promising, but Obama's pulling his TV ads there. As money is needed for more likely prospects, expect a Democratic draw-down throughout the South.
Alaska: for reasons passing understanding the Democrats have been talking up Montana. They seated the Montana delegation front-and-center during the convention, as if to declare their intentions. Obama made a trip out to Billings. But as Alaska goes, so will go Montana and Alaska is going for Palin.
Obama may have felt like he had to spend time in these places because of Howard Dean's Fifty State Strategy. The idea is to whip up Democratic activists in every state. It may not help with the presidential election, but they think it will win them a few down-ticket races.
Obama may also have been trying to force McCain to defend states he already was winning. If so that has been a monumental failure. Obama's pulling out of North Dakota. McCain never had anyone in North Dakota...and still he's winning. The same thing went on in Florida over the summer, where Obama spent millions and McCain spent nothing...and still he's winning.
In any case, as Obama starts to realize that he's got to do better than winning just John Kerry's blue states, he'll target his resources more carefully onto the battlegrounds...other than Florida, of course, which I think he's going to lose quite handily. He's already on the defensive in Michigan and Pennsylvania. He needs to somehow take Ohio or Virginia and preserve his margin in New Mexico and Colorado.
Posted by: Mark at September 22, 2008 05:16 AM (/9jiG)
My heart, she is bleeding for him. I guess now he'll have to take refuge by bitterly clinging to his copy of the Little Red Book.
Posted by: CrankyProf at September 22, 2008 05:20 AM (4q3/n)
Posted by: East Bay patriot at September 22, 2008 05:28 AM (h/5U0)
Posted by: Jim Treacher at September 22, 2008 05:29 AM (NV3P1)
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at September 22, 2008 05:29 AM (AHrTm)
Posted by: Jim Treacher at September 22, 2008 05:30 AM (NV3P1)
Some experts estimate the first African American candidate of a major party might be as much as 6 percentage points more ahead if he wasn't black.
"If he wasn't black"?! Don't mean to be a grammar Nazi, but have these esteemed journalists ever heard of the subjunctive case, i.e, "if he weren't black."
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at September 22, 2008 05:34 AM (n2eCn)
Posted by: kempermanx at September 22, 2008 05:37 AM (2+9Yx)
he is still trying for North Carolina, who hasn't gone Dem since Jimmy Carter.
the liberal paper in Charlotte, reports that Obama attracted 20k to his rally yesterday in downtown Charlotte. He's running a few ads here, one of which is the McCain Lobbiest ad
Posted by: jp at September 22, 2008 05:39 AM (DFDtC)
1) The leader of their political party that just happens to be the party nominee for President.
2) The Speaker of the House in charge of the 14% approval rated Congress.
3) The anti-drilling coalition and their 21 of 100 supporters.
4) Bow hunting season.
Has Obama come out against Bow hunting?
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at September 22, 2008 05:41 AM (AHrTm)
Posted by: Vmaximus at September 22, 2008 05:45 AM (sA5Gz)
Has Obama come out against Bow hunting?
Don't think so, but I've seen a few Obama supporters on the web get all hysterical about pictures of Palin next to her kills. I swear, Obama supporters are our secret weapon in all this.
Posted by: Lee at September 22, 2008 05:45 AM (TxTIh)
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at September 22, 2008 05:48 AM (AHrTm)
Posted by: Oedipus at September 22, 2008 05:50 AM (5Djkl)
If he does, expect Biden to immediately talk about his bow.
Posted by: POTL at September 22, 2008 05:53 AM (mD4t/)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at September 22, 2008 05:53 AM (B+qrE)
Ya think??? Does anyone think McCain was ever worried about North Dakota?
Obama is running his campaign like it's the Iowa primary. "People in "white" states aren't afraid of blacks because they don't have to deal with them daily". This isn't a Democratic primary assholes, the majority of the state is not voting for a liberal Democrat no matter who it is. Ignore Bill Clinton's numbers, they are worthless unless you convince Perot to run again. New England = Democratic, Mountain West = Republican. Yeah NH and Colorado are in play but I honesty don't think it's as much as people think. NH will be Dem on 11/4 and Colorado will be Repub.
Honestly there will be whole economic courses taught just on the fiscal mismanagement of Obama's campaign this year. This guy has pissed through an incredible amount of money since super Tuesday and has nothing but negative to show for it.
David Axelrod may be the "King of Astroturfing" but how effective is that if you literally cut up cash to make the Astroturf?
Posted by: Rocks at September 22, 2008 05:54 AM (Q1lie)
No, he just needs to do the latter. Iowa's gone, and IA+NM+CO ftw, even if McCain takes New Hampshire.
Posted by: Knemon at September 22, 2008 05:57 AM (kNBIs)
Posted by: fbundy at September 22, 2008 05:57 AM (QBtwn)
He really should have. Sure it may have been "too progressive" for some voters, but they would be doing a lot better than this. Making sure Hillary knew she was never vetted or considered was a bad move.
Posted by: POTL at September 22, 2008 05:58 AM (mD4t/)
He keeps on getting work doesn't he? Axelrod is seeding the national political landscape with money poorly spent to win a Presidential campaign, but wisely spent to help propel your own career.
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at September 22, 2008 05:58 AM (AHrTm)
Posted by: jp at September 22, 2008 06:04 AM (DFDtC)
which would swing it in a 269-269 draw, so 270-268
of course, the Dems would likely take splitting EV's up to SCOTUS at that point. would they have a case?
Posted by: jp at September 22, 2008 06:05 AM (DFDtC)
Hey, it worked for me, and I'm, like, 0 for 7.
Posted by: bob shrum at September 22, 2008 06:05 AM (FO+YO)
There, fixed it for ya. And no, this joke hasn't gotten old.
Posted by: JB at September 22, 2008 06:07 AM (qxc7J)
Posted by: estee at September 22, 2008 06:14 AM (51h4I)
Ya got that right GS.
Posted by: Rocks at September 22, 2008 06:16 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: pendejo grande at September 22, 2008 06:19 AM (wcW9G)
Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at September 22, 2008 06:28 AM (kNqJV)
Posted by: TangoSix at September 22, 2008 06:33 AM (Jtvg/)
Posted by: estee at September 22, 2008 06:49 AM (51h4I)
My wife just got back from a trip to Iowa, and apparently it is all Palin, all the time - in a good way.
Living in NY/NJ metro you get spared most of the commercials. I don't envy Ohioans at this point.
Posted by: Holdfast at September 22, 2008 07:00 AM (Gzb30)
Posted by: ajs at September 22, 2008 07:01 AM (cChNH)
Here's my near worthless anecdotal evidence: there were Obama signs and bumper stickers everywhere in Northern Virginia with almost no McCain counterparts until only a month or so ago. McCain signs and stickers are finally geting out. Jim Gilmore- the former guv who ran a lackluster presidential campaign- is almost invisible.
Posted by: Matt at September 22, 2008 07:02 AM (ecpMe)
Maybe I didn't catch this because I'm really tired. What is the shocking reason?
Posted by: POTL at September 22, 2008 07:03 AM (mD4t/)
Barack Obama doesn't say this is a "shocking reason", but he admits that people are voting for him BECAUSE he's black.
Sen. OBAMA: Look, if you're asking me are there some people who might not vote for me because of my race? Of course. Are there some who might vote for me because of my race? You bet.
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at September 22, 2008 07:16 AM (AHrTm)
Posted by: Dennis York at September 22, 2008 07:26 AM (gv430)
Posted by: clueless first time voter at September 22, 2008 07:27 AM (knHvu)
I really do not understand what's happening in Colorado...
Posted by: oy at September 22, 2008 07:30 AM (cJNiP)
Posted by: TFB at September 22, 2008 07:34 AM (mRQfu)
Posted by: estee at September 22, 2008 07:40 AM (51h4I)
Matt: That sounds about right re VA. I live in Fairfax, and I've seen McCain/Palin signs starting to pop up in ones and twos. Still a lot more Obama signs. Gilmore is finished--Mark Warner's win over him is going to be statistically embarassing.
Curiously, there aren't nearly as many Obama signs as there were Kerry/Edward signs at this time four years ago.
Posted by: railwriter at September 22, 2008 07:42 AM (nwEiU)
Unions and a few liberal donors have put millions into 527 groups in Colorado that helped elect democrats take the state senate and state house and target congressional republicans.
Fred Barnes wrote an article about it in July- the Colorado Model.
Posted by: Matt at September 22, 2008 07:43 AM (ecpMe)
Posted by: chad at September 22, 2008 07:47 AM (lNQg8)
Posted by: Matt at September 22, 2008 07:49 AM (ecpMe)
Think about it.
I call bullshit.
Posted by: Ann at September 22, 2008 07:50 AM (c3H+i)
Not only do I live in PA, I live in the part of PA that has not one but two of the most hotly contested seats in Congress. I swear the only commercials I get are campaign commercials. Thank heavens for the TiVo or I'd have thrown something through the tv by now. So I'm a tad bitter about those of you not going through this hell.
I never understood the 50 state strategy in the first place. There aren't actually unlimited funds and prioritizing is going to be necessary.
Posted by: alexthechick at September 22, 2008 07:50 AM (SHHaV)
The McCain precinct captain was driving around the neighborhood this weekend to thank GOP voters who had signs up. My wife spoke with her, and the woman told her that the McCain team had been putting up signs, but that Obama supporters were taking them down--I mention this only because the Obama signs that are prominent on medians and common areas have been there for months, undisturbed. Also said that the folks in our 'hood were incredibly rude. No surprise on either count.
The 50-state thing must've been a Dean financial head-fake. "We're interested in competing in your red state...only long enough to shake you down for contributions. After that, we're outta there."
I can't imagine The One's "guns-bible" nonsense is going to play well in PA, if that state is anything like Carville's description: "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between."
Posted by: railwriter at September 22, 2008 08:01 AM (nwEiU)
Wait, you mean I can actually run out of these money things? Once my little slips of green paper are gone, that's it? Hell, I've been giving them out like party favors. I've even used them to fuel O Force One's fireplace. I've probably gone through, at least... millions of them...
Posted by: Buddy O'bama at September 22, 2008 08:09 AM (MY+kJ)
Posted by: USAFDave at September 22, 2008 08:18 AM (4DWV5)
Posted by: Nyctalus Lasiopterus at September 22, 2008 08:23 AM (Dx8Q4)
On the other hand, Obama's entire career in politics hinges on his race. His entire reason for taking up residence in Chicago, a place where he had no personal history and little to recommend it, was that it is considered the capitol of African-American politics. Look more like his father than his mother may cost him a few polling points in some locales but he has nothing else driving his candidacy otherwise. Drop his melanin level and he's just another Ivy League liberal with no drawing power.
Actually, without affirmative action admissions, it's unlikely he or his wife would ever have gained entry to an Ivy League school. And the nation would be spared this ego that walks like a man.
Posted by: epobirs at September 22, 2008 08:32 AM (eIO0m)
Posted by: Dudley Smith at September 22, 2008 08:47 AM (0S8Xt)
Posted by: arhooley at September 22, 2008 08:58 AM (vBYwZ)
There's no way Obama is going to win PA. No f'n way. He'll take Philly and probably Pitt, too, but those Scranton voters are going to give him the stink eye, big time.
Posted by: OregonMuse at September 22, 2008 08:59 AM (FO+YO)
I am in central Iowa, and I see a minimal amount of signs (either McCain or Obama) in the Des Moines/Ankeny/Ames areas. These are very heavy Obama areas. I also work in a campus area in Ames, which is obviously heavily Democrat. There is NO talk about politics going on right now, in the restaurants and the bar scene. That is very good for the Republican side of things.
I just drove up to North Dakota this weekend, and there were no signs out by the interstates in any of the 3 states I went through (ND, Minnesota, or Iowa). One Franken sign, and a bunch of Coleman signs in Minneapolis. That was very suprising to me. I was expecting a lot of advertising, especially at the end of September. I didn't expect to see anything but McCain signs in ND, either.
Double digits for Obama in Iowa? I don't think so. The college students won't show up, as usual. They turned out in droves last time (well, by comparison to past elections), and Iowa turned red (after a couple of months). You really have no idea how red rural Iowa is, and it's turning red in the cities, too. Lots of people around the cities really like Palin.Same old shiite in the city, unfortunately.
Posted by: Jay in Ames at September 22, 2008 09:16 AM (UEEex)
Posted by: Obloodyhell at September 22, 2008 10:41 AM (00mT8)
Posted by: Gorgon Zola at September 22, 2008 11:10 AM (kbVH7)
Posted by: Arthur at September 22, 2008 11:10 AM (DW8FY)
Posted by: mpur at September 22, 2008 11:10 AM (HdciP)
Posted by: jarod at September 22, 2008 11:12 AM (jKvSW)
If so, where the heck do the clutch their Bibles? (And do I really want to know?)
I mean, this is getting confusing.
Oh. The latest poll in Michigan shows a dead tie at around 43-43 with 10% undecided. If past Michigan elections is any indicator, this means Obama is losing by at least 5 and maybe 10%. Seriously.
What does <i>that</i> do to those electoral projections? I'll put even money on McCain winning Michigan.
Posted by: JorgXMcKie at September 22, 2008 11:29 AM (nMT31)
Gee, I wonder why socialists don't do well in the states where the Obamanation is closing offices? Maybe its racism?
Why then is McCain opening 50 offices in California? Will Palin become the Queen of Cali as Reagan was its King? Strange times.
Posted by: eaglewingz08 at September 22, 2008 11:58 AM (W88Qb)
Gov Palin needs to take a road trip from San Diego, Ca to Portland, Or.
Then we can watch Obama try to defend 'his' safe states.
Posted by: Marvin at September 22, 2008 01:22 PM (37F2I)
Posted by: ahabers at September 22, 2008 02:28 PM (Ob8pg)
Oh, how lucky are those states that won't be subjected to constant Obama propaganda. I live in Illinois (a suburb of Chicago, no less), and it is quite the lopsided political arena. I don't know why he's wasting his money running ads here...there's no way the Messiah will lose Illinois.
Posted by: jana at September 22, 2008 04:17 PM (vSRlG)
Posted by: Annalucia at September 22, 2008 04:18 PM (OMiLl)
Of course, the out-of-state pollers and campaing groups don't know any of that right now. Ergo, the phone rings off the hook most days....
Anyway, the Dems seem ready to repeat 2004 by abandoning 2/3 of all the states at the onset again. They were pushing their luck with Kerry, and The Obamessiah campaign has put states in play that were supposed to be "safe" for their party. Once again, the Democrats show their dislike for the Red States, by fighting desperately for the Purple States and Blue States, 'cause that's where the Republicans know they can turn up the heat. Real winning strategery there, Donks.
Posted by: exdem13 at September 22, 2008 05:59 PM (nQ6xk)
McCain never had anyone in North Dakota...
Except, apparently, the voters. Looks like someone thinks he's got quite a lot of those...
Posted by: Calix at September 22, 2008 11:45 PM (8d3U/)
If Obama were not black he would not be the Democratic nominee. Its the fact that he is black, has been a member of an anti-white racist church, that the Democrats love him.
Now America is rejecting his brand of hatred towards whites and the media is trying to make that out as racism.
The AP is the Pravda of the left. They have been inbed with Obama forever. They like the anti-white ststus quo.
Posted by: RA at September 23, 2008 05:08 AM (poJU6)
Posted by: Troy Polamalu Jersey at November 21, 2011 06:29 AM (q+Z9s)
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