Ace of Spades HQ

September 09, 2008

MSNBC Poll: Dead Heat, Obama with One Point Lead, Just as Kos Diarist's "Little Bird" Told Him
— Ace

Wow! A one point lead!

This truly has "changed the way [I] look at the world!"

First Look: Registered voters, not likely. 860 of them. The Gallup poll polled 1022 adults, 959 of whom were registered voters, and then further narrowed that field into a smaller number of "likely voters."

The poll reinforces other polls' findings -- that McCain/Palin have substantially eaten into Obama's lead among women. Here, they find a 14 point lead has been chopped to 4 points.

And yet Obama remains ahead? That would mean McCain leads men by only 6 2 or 3 points. Possible, I guess, but seems unlikely. Update: My pollster says a lead of up to 10% (or that range) among men is far more likely, making me wonder how the hell McCain managed to do so well with women -- a tiny 4% gap -- while simultaneously losing almost all of the Republicans' historic lead with mem.

My Pollster Source: Is reading this now. So far--

McCain's impressions are good, really good
Palin's are smokin'

Here's the PDF with more detailed results.

No mention of the methodology of the poll-- what was weighted on.

Yeah...: Someone writes:

Note that this is the EXACT SAME RESULT as yesterday's ABC/WaPo poll (47-46 Obama lead among registered voters), but the Dems weren't so eager to push that one in the media.
Why? Because the ABC/WaPo one also had a likely voters breakdown: 49-47, a 2 point McCain lead. Whoops!
Hasn't your world been rocked? Heh.

Posted by: Ace at 01:55 PM | Comments (55)
Post contains 304 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..............................

Posted by: Che Pizza at September 09, 2008 01:57 PM (SPSOE)

2 Obama gets personal .. now it's gonna get ugly. "You can put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig."
Everybody take a deep breath while Obama destroys himself.

Posted by: Neo at September 09, 2008 01:58 PM (Yozw9)

3 Wow... it's a good thing that 2 major news agencies, Obama's campaign manager and Daily Kos underhyped this, huh?

1 pt., within the margin of error, the only current poll that shows Obama with any lead at all...

Yeah... it's kinda like being 80 and almost feeling like you have an erection, right Daily Kos?

Changed my world fer sure.

Posted by: Damiano at September 09, 2008 01:59 PM (aSQmq)

4 Another registered voter poll.

Two of three sample days are on the weekend.

Don't get your panties in a bunch.

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 02:00 PM (2z2WN)

5 From Politico:

Democratic Congressman Russ Carnahan on Tuesday introducing Joe Biden at a campaign event ripped into Palins record and punctuated it with this snarky jab. Theres no way you can dress up that record, even with a lot of lipstick, he said. Obama himself used similar langauge later in the day about the McCain-Palin reform rhetoric, saying "You can put lipstick on a pig," he said. "It's still a pig."

Posted by: aquaviva at September 09, 2008 02:00 PM (WdEG6)

6 Neo I thought his "wrap an old fish in paper and it still stinks" or whatever was weird and gross.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 02:00 PM (VKmxM)

7 The Lipstick comment is goig to piss off the PUMAs for sher.

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 02:01 PM (VKmxM)

8 It's a close race.

Posted by: at September 09, 2008 02:02 PM (hawOV)

It's over man, it's over.

"You can put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig."

He didn't really say that did he?

Posted by: Javems at September 09, 2008 02:03 PM (/IQA9)

10 That's what Politico is reporting.

Posted by: aquaviva at September 09, 2008 02:03 PM (WdEG6)

11 So is Drudge.

Posted by: fiatboomer at September 09, 2008 02:05 PM (c0NSb)

12 Note that this is the EXACT SAME RESULT as yesterday's ABC/WaPo poll (47-46 Obama lead among registered voters), but the Dems weren't so eager to push that one in the media.

Why? Because the ABC/WaPo one also had a likely voters breakdown: 49-47, a 2 point McCain lead. Whoops!

Hasn't your world been rocked? Heh.

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 02:05 PM (2z2WN)

13 "You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig." "You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It's still gonna stink."

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 02:06 PM (VKmxM)

14 WTF!

Obama said:
"You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."

Pig--pitbull--Palin...I think Obama is about to step in it big time!!!

Posted by: Jawbone at September 09, 2008 02:08 PM (JalPh)

15 When candidates start denigrating their opponents with personal insults - I'm reminded of Bush Sr. calling the Clintons "Bozos" when it was obvious he was behind - it is more than a sign of desperation, it says "Looser".

Posted by: Javems at September 09, 2008 02:08 PM (/IQA9)

16 I wonder if you wrapped a stinking poll in a paper called change if it would stink?

Posted by: WalrusRex at September 09, 2008 02:08 PM (DVVXZ)

17 "Palin's are smokin'"

Yup: 47% positive, 27% negative.

!!!!!!!

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 02:09 PM (2z2WN)

When MSNBC can only "give" BHO a one point lead you know it is very bad in the dems house. If this is all they could concievablly get away with the "real" numbers must be very bad.

Of course polls are more about fund raising then anything else. Close races bring more money for the canidates, also wide numbers bring more money for the leader. Thus MSNBC must be trying to stop the flow of funds from the BHO campaign

Posted by: unseen at September 09, 2008 02:09 PM (aVGmX)

19 2 Obama gets personal

Mr. Rove, please! You're just showing off now.

Posted by: adamthemad at September 09, 2008 02:09 PM (kIjlp)

20 He didn't really say that did he?

Please god, make it be true. I'll never steal anyone's lunch money again if this is true.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 09, 2008 02:10 PM (6L459)

21 Whoa, Obama must have been drinking one of my best-selling products.

Posted by: at September 09, 2008 02:10 PM (hawOV)

22 Lipstick on a pig. Oops. I am pretty sure that he didn't mean that, but it is a doozy. Imaging if McCain had said that running againt Hillary.

If he is smart he will clarify and apologize immediatly.

Posted by: erik at September 09, 2008 02:10 PM (hblvb)

23 Also--thank gaia for Drudge. When he headlines somethine, the rest of the media cannot really ignore it.

Posted by: erik at September 09, 2008 02:11 PM (hblvb)

24 Please post if anyone has been polled.

This is no different than reuters photoshopping its news

Posted by: NortonPete at September 09, 2008 02:12 PM (fVuwW)

25 She looks, uh, "smokin'" in that Drudge pic.

Posted by: someone at September 09, 2008 02:12 PM (2z2WN)

26 He said it alright.
Pass the popcorn.

What a complete and total douchwad.

Posted by: MrsPaulsFishSticks at September 09, 2008 02:12 PM (PBGAP)

27 Obama, working on winning the woman vote:

Obama: 'Lipstick on a pig'

Amie Parnes reports from Lebanon, VA:

Obama poked fun of McCain and Palin's new "change" mantra.

"You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."

"You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It's still gonna stink."

"We've had enough of the same old thing."

The crowd apparently took the "lipstick" line as a reference to Palin, who described the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull in a single word: "lipstick."

Posted by: docweasel at September 09, 2008 02:14 PM (XmjZg)

28 Tapper in an update: UPDATE: Obama senior adviser Robert Gibbs insists the senator was not referring to Palin. "That's an old expression," Gibbs says. http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/obama-says-mc-1.html also Tapper reported a Union dude was giving a enthusiastic introduction of Obama at the same event in Lebanon, Virginia and said: "Jesus was a community organizer," Roberts said."

Posted by: topsecretk9 at September 09, 2008 02:15 PM (VKmxM)

29 oops too late :p

Posted by: docweasel at September 09, 2008 02:15 PM (XmjZg)

30 Erik,
Of course he meant it. Every fucking word. O-man is at heart little and petty and mean. When he does not get his way he behaves like the little shit that he is at the core of his being.

He's the PIG!

Posted by: MrsPaulsFishSticks at September 09, 2008 02:15 PM (PBGAP)

You can rub Tobasco on a donkey's balls and he'll squeal like a pig.

Posted by: alycan at September 09, 2008 02:16 PM (Il2Ep)

32 Barry - 6 points up in July
Barry - 3 points up in August
Barry - 1 point up today

Even NBC with all the massaging of the numbers (Now we know what what Sully has been doing with his husband the last day in exile) cannot stop the downward trend of the 0's poll numbers.

Obi-Wan the "Bath boy" will be shaking with pleasure as he announces the news on his show tonight!! lol

Madcow will then interview him on her show to ask him how it felt to announce the great news.

If there is a great & glories God..................
He will let Mac/Palin win just to watch all the exploding heads on MSNBC!

Posted by: bdawg65 at September 09, 2008 02:16 PM (P8U36)

I'm very surprised. The Palin photo spread at MSNBC didn't include any bad ones e.g. mouth open or the like. (The earliest ones are at the end of the list.)

Posted by: andycanuck at September 09, 2008 02:17 PM (qKkaY)

34
Lipstick on a pig!

Posted by: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/025jpasseycrop.jpg at September 09, 2008 02:17 PM (ZTDVK)

You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."

Wow. Simply...

Somewhere, Joe Biden heard that and with self-reflection went, "I know I have a big mouth, but damn..."

Posted by: Lee at September 09, 2008 02:19 PM (TxTIh)

36 This is not the Barack Obama I interviewed.

Posted by: Bill O'Reilly at September 09, 2008 02:19 PM (mTWN+)

Or loser. I'm fucking insenced.

Posted by: Javems at September 09, 2008 02:24 PM (/IQA9)

38 I'd eat a pig's asshole, if you cook it right.

Posted by: Joey Plugs at September 09, 2008 02:27 PM (zAvxs)

The election is going to be a rough fight.

I am vastly pleased with McCain's performance so far vs. team Obama's performance. In the course of this race when something does go wrong for McCain, I bet McCain's response will be measurably better than say, the current Obama performance to the Palin VP choice.

As the for the lipstick gaffe, I think it would be effective if the McCain/Palin campaign could rapidly make a daily web-video of Gov. Palin speaking a 30-60 sec response to any of Obama's major nightly TV story, whatever that is, and use to to draw him in to endlessly debating her.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at September 09, 2008 02:44 PM (2PwTK)

40 Change the world? My God, doesn't Halperin have any shame????

Posted by: grc at September 09, 2008 02:47 PM (PL/WT)

41 When I saw Palin checking out the stage at the convention the morning of her speech, it became clear to me that she would do fine. She's a pro. She knows what she's doing. She wants this. Same with McCain. He could says "fuck it" and retire, but he wants this. And he and his team showed us that they have their shit together and are smarter than we thought. The opposite is true of Obama, and without the MSM dragging him across the finish line he'd be back in the Senate voting "Present".

McCain, Palin, and the whole team want to win this, and they think they know how to do it. They're still integrating Palin into the campaign and bringing her onto the same page as McCain as regards issues. Remember it's only been 11 days, but she has already totally changed the game. It will take a while for opinion to change, but the trend is going our way now. I think there are a lot of people out there who want "change" but really don't trust Obama, and they now have an attractive alternative. As the election nears, the undecideds will have to pick one side or the other. We can do our part by standing up for our side when we talk with relatives, chat with the barber, etc.

Posted by: lmg at September 09, 2008 02:48 PM (A/vgC)

42 He made it sound like it was the October 1917 revolution all over. Oh, wait, they really think it is!

Posted by: grc at September 09, 2008 02:52 PM (PL/WT)

43 Something about these figures is definitely not adding up. Is there a "double secret
probation" group that they're simply not reporting with their figures that always seems
to give Obama that 1 or 2 points? Something is askew with their sampling.

And, guys, this is MSNBC -- not saying this is a totally bogus poll but knowing this is the home of "tingling legs" Matthews and "shit-eating crazy" Olbermann, do you really think
they're going to publish a poll that shows Obama sinking like a Russian sub?

Posted by: prairiemain at September 09, 2008 03:04 PM (uDqa7)

44 Well, I try not to get too excited about anything. I think we are going to have a long battle just because Obama the hare got off the line much faster. It is interesting to see him rapidly imploding, but I'm not sure that the people who saw him as that great won't be willing to give him some serious lea way while looking very intensely at Palin.

Fox's piece on her will be interesting, but people want dirt because they believe everybody has dirt. They want to judge how much dirt it is and whether it is toxic or just normal dirt.

That is one problem though with building up a candidate to be too pure because sometimes even a little dirt looks like a toxic land fill. So, hopefully, Sarah will be mindful and remain as humble as possible when interviewed. No "it was nothing" or "we can do better" moments. Simple acknowledgment and then move on to what she and McCain want to do. Link it to the expectations the American people have of their leaders and representatives. I'd end with "That is what John and I believe is our job when we are elected."

People love that last part even if it sounds hokey.

Posted by: kat-missouri at September 09, 2008 03:04 PM (io+Si)

45 I got polled last nite, hard, 25 minutes(!) I got the feeling it was by the Democrat congressional candidate (Colorado 4th, R-Musgrave vs some D) just from the tone of the questions. Some were pretty twisty. You would think this democrat was a righteous conservative judging from the way some of these were worded, and did you know Bush is a moron? Anyway in August Gallup called here but specifically asked for the wife, would not talk to anybody else. I have never been polled before this year, after 11+ years with the same (land) phone number.

Posted by: faris at September 09, 2008 04:58 PM (xdPec)

46 Palin and McCain should stay above this lipstick on a pig fight.

In fact, it sounds like a job for Rudy. I'm sure he'd have a few choice words for Captain Pantywaist.

Posted by: DelD at September 09, 2008 05:53 PM (bhpbV)

47 If Gov. Palin actually looked like a pig, then this might be a little more devastating. But since she doesn't, it simply makes Obama sound vulgar and immature. Which also might be okay if that were his normal persona. But he's the guy that makes women swoon and giggle while they stare at his crotch, he's supposed to be a long cool drink of water. Ah, well. I'm sure the Governor has heard worse on the basketball court.

Posted by: Sally at September 09, 2008 06:46 PM (Cd4Oq)

48

I hate to be a wet blanket, but I find it depressing that McCain and Obama are even in the polls. Depressing, because of what it says about fully half of the American populace.

Oh, well, Spengler of the Asian Times is predicting McCain in a landslide. And he's a hardheaded realist. But I'd settle for a McCain win even by the slimmest of margines.

Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 09, 2008 06:50 PM (m6Zii)

49 I too would settle for a razor-thin margin as long as it put Gov. Palin in D.C. for the next four years.

But you have to know that anything less than a 5% popular-vote spread or 25 electoral votes will bring out the recount calls.

I'm just glad the Palins didn't name either of their sons Chad. Imagine the wacko "jokes" that would ensue.

Posted by: McGehee at September 10, 2008 05:23 AM (K13Au)

50 THE CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME TO ROOST ... Barack is cryin. He always thought this is mine! I'm Michele's husband, I'm black, and this is mine! I just got to step up into the plate ... and, then out of nowhere, came 'Hey, I'm Sarah Palin' ... and he said damn, where did you come from? I'm black, I'm entitled ... there's a white woman stealing my show ... wah ... wah ...

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