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September 08, 2008

More Good News from USAToday/Gallup Poll: Democrat-Republican Identification Is at Narrowest Gap Since, Like, Ever or Somethin'
— Ace

Wow... sort of.

In the new survey, more voters call themselves Republicans. Now 48% say they're Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party; 47% say they're Republicans or lean to the GOP.
Not since February 2005, right after Bush's second inauguration, have Republicans been within a single point of Democrats in party identification.
What's more, voters by 48%-45% support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, the party's narrowest advantage this year.

I say that's "wow... sort of" because we all know sometimes polls get bad samples, with one party oversampled. Of course, this is usually the Democratic Party.

But of course it happens the other way too, on occasion -- and it seems to have happened here. The Democrats usually enjoy a 6-8 point split on party ID lately. Although it's possible the Republicans have suddenly narrowed that gap to nothing, I'd want to see a lot of confirmation on this before concluding that.

If this is a bad sample, it also throws into question that outsized ten point lead McCain-Palin now supposedly have (at least with likely voters).

But the Gallup Poll (and I think Gallup's own poll, which is just called the Gallup Poll, is different than the one they run for USAToday as the USAToday/Gallup poll) also has McCain-Palin up by 5 points:

That [six-point bounce] is slightly better than Barack Obamas four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points
McCains current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

As we know from 2000, 49% is basically a majority of the country at this point (because 2% will vote minor party).

Rasmussen shows a statistically insignificant one point lead for the McCain-Palin team.

The one point lead is insignificant, but the seven point shift in opinion (Obama was up six at his peak) is not.

Barack Obama: The One

McCain-Palin: The Two

Two > One.

Google it.

What if It's Real? It is possible the sudden shift in party ID is real -- but not particularly significant.

Most "independents" are not really all that independent. They don't like party labels -- either because they don't like labels generally ("I'm too complex for labels" -- um, no you're not; You get the label of the guy who thinks he's too complex for labels), or like thinking of themselves as "independent minded," or because they don't like the people actually running the parties -- but they are, in fact, mostly aligned with one party or the other.

Frank Luntz is always pointing this out. They say they're "independent." They're lying -- partly to themselves ("No way am I a Bible-thumping Repubican!") and partly to others to maintain the image of not being a "joiner" or a follower. When he focus-groups these independents -- well, really "undecided voters" -- he usually finds they actually have decided, pretty much, but just like saying they're uncommitted.

So they do have a poltiical ideology -- and it usually tracks more closely with one party or the other, and despite their protestations of being "undecided," they wind up supporting the candidate you'd expect them to support, based on demographics and basic ideology.

Now, the Repubican brand is "scarier" than the Democratic brand. It's easy to be a Democrat -- all the swells in Hollywood, all the stars in rock n' roll, all the nice smart unbiased reporters on CNN and MSNBC and the late-night talk shows are constantly putting out the message that being a Democrat shows you're smart, nice, educated, progressive, forward-thinking, and (crucially) cool and hip, while if you're a Republican, you're dumb, cruel, ignorant, retrrograde and you bitterly cling to your guns, religion, and hatred of Domincans, pus, of course, you're not only not cool, but you're totally judgmental and bogus and are probably a narc or somethin', man.

If anyone has made the transition from Democrat to Republican (as I have), you know what I'm talking about. Calling myself a Democrat in my youth was a cost-free choice. Hey, they were the cool guys.

My transition occurred over a series of steps: First I was a moderate Democrat who believed in a more capitalist vision of the economy and a decidedly more muscular military posture than the crazies in the party, plus a more punitive stance on crime, plus I was kind of skeptical about identity politics and quotas. And.... unions, too.

And quite frankly the environment, too. Who needs it?

At some point I realized that, um, I really wasn't a moderate Democrat at all, because all of those points were simply not Democratic positions at all, and I became, in my head, either a 'centrist who votes Democratic" or an "independent who votes Democratic."

And then I started splitting tickets and voting for Republicans a lot more. At this point I think I may have called myself a libertarian, not knowing really what the fuck it meant, just knowing it sounded cool and accurately reflected the fact I was not a Democrat, but also kept me far away from the despised Republican label.

And then I woke up one day, decided "Who the hell am I fooling anymore?," and decided I was comfortable enough with my sexuality to come out of the closet and admit I had a profound, unquenchable desire to fuck the working man and dirty foreigners (90% of whom probably have AIDS anyway).

The environment also probably has AIDS. You can't spell "Snail-Darter" without AIDS. (I haven't.)

Point is, it's hard to call oneself a Republican. Much harder than it is to call oneself a Democrat. There are independents put-off by the Democratic brand, and yet who are ideologically reliably liberal (at least center-liberal), but I'm guessing there are about double or tripe the number of Repubican-ish independents who view the Republican lable as the Scarlet R for Repression and Repugnancy.

When someone makes the Republican label "cool" -- as Reagan did for a time, as Bush did for a briefer time, as the McCain/Palin Independents with Integrity ticket is doing now -- many of those Indpendents-in-Name-Onlies (IINO's) feel comfortable enough to admit what's kind of obvious to everyone but they themselves, that, given the binary choice of Republican or Democrat, they're on the red side of the ROYGBIV spectrum. Orange maybe, or maybe just yellow, but definitely lower-frequency.

So it is possible that we've suddenly seen all those Yellows and Orangres begin admitting they're Reddish.

But while this is possible, it's also not particularly significant-- the thing is, even without that self-identification (self-admission is more accurate) of their Republican leanings, they were probably going to vote for us anyway, "Independent" status be damned.

There is almost certainly some component of real net gains -- the McCain/Palin ticket appeals to those sick of partisan warfare, and also those sick to death of corruption and compromise (the bad kind) in Washington, and so some of these disaffected-Republicans-coming-home really do represent new votes we otherwise would not have gotten.

How many? Don't know. Some. It's an impossible question to poll on, because you can't ask,

Question 23. A few minutes ago you said you were an Independent, which was such a ridiculous lie I want to laugh in your fat lying face. And laugh, and laugh, and laugh, and laugh. Now, when you stop yanking my crank for five frigin' minutes -- you don't embarrass me; you embarrass yourself -- what party do you really most closely identify with, and stop being such a fucking liar, Mr. Fatty McLieFace, and give me a straight answer for once?

but if they could ask that, they'd probably find the partisan split has never been as big as the polls indicate.

Either way, though, surely it's a good thing that people are feeling more pro-Republican now and are not so put off by the toxic designation.

Joke Theft: "Think about it... I haven't" stolen from the tremendously great Strangers with Candy.

Could possibly be a Stephen Colbert line (writing it, not speaking it), just to give a liberal props.

Posted by: Ace at 08:54 AM | Comments (130)
Post contains 1436 words, total size 9 kb.

1 I can't imagine how anyone could take referring to Sarah Palin as "The Two" in any way but complimentary and completely appropriate.

Posted by: Alice H at September 08, 2008 08:57 AM (jRtPb)

2 Hmmm... yeah that's what I thought. Nuts.

Posted by: ace at September 08, 2008 08:59 AM (1WR4H)

3 Wow!

It looks like McCain should only lose this thing by a few points, when all's said and done. Since Obama has a huge built-in advantage in the electoral college, there's an outside chance if McCain and Palin continue to shine that they could win the popular vote narrowly and only lose the electoral college.

Either way, they're doing great by trying to hard against such impossible odds.

Does anyone think their success in coming close to Obama's electoral college numbers will reduce expected GOP senate and house seat losses?

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 08:59 AM (hawOV)

4 *so

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:01 AM (hawOV)

5 Still don't trust any of the pollsters, even if they say McCain will win in a landslide. Especially if they say that. The Dems are poised to cheat like never before, just do not trust the lot of them no way no how.

Posted by: mbruce at September 08, 2008 09:01 AM (h/5U0)

6 Okay, I'll just refer to McCain-Palin as The Two, but i want everyone to know in my heart, if I was only doing jokes and not trying to be all "respectful" 'n shit, I really want to just call Palin "The Two."

Seriously, she deserves mad props for those parka-goblins.

Posted by: ace at September 08, 2008 09:02 AM (1WR4H)

7 The Democrats losing the presidency and the Senate as well is becoming a real possibility...that's no mean feat considering all the advantages they have enjoyed.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 08, 2008 09:05 AM (1g+FW)

8 I'm sticking with the two referring to those wheels. Gams. Pins.

Posted by: mbruce at September 08, 2008 09:05 AM (h/5U0)

9 "The Democrats losing the presidency and the Senate as well is becoming a real possibility..."

Extremely unlikely.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:06 AM (hawOV)

10 Gallup is registered voters. Given that likely voters usually trend GOP, it could indicate a lead of near 10% with likelies.

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 08, 2008 09:06 AM (MMC8r)

11 Bottom line: I have no frickn' idea who is going to win this election. Glad I could add to the conversation.

Posted by: Judd at September 08, 2008 09:07 AM (BXHeE)

12 Weekend Poll Effect is still on, shrinking the McCain lead. Check Wednesday/Thursday's numbers.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:08 AM (8WyNq)

13 Not at all Christoph. If the voter identification differential is down to one percent. The Democrats are in big, big trouble in all their races not just the presidential race. Could be some eye-popping things happening in November....

Posted by: The Obvious at September 08, 2008 09:10 AM (1g+FW)

14 Yes, the Obvious, but remember the debates are coming up. Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials... McCain isn't, and Joe Biden is so much more experienced in debating than Sarah Palin. More to the point, her focus has been state policy, with only limited federal focus on energy, and very little international.

So after the debates, expect an Obama/Biden bounce, plus if it's even close it goes Obama's way due to how the electoral college goes this way.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:13 AM (hawOV)

15 And while this sample could very well be wrong...the reaction at MSNBC and the WaPo and in the Obama campaign indicate they believe it... We'll know in a couple weeks.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 08, 2008 09:14 AM (1g+FW)

16 Since Obama has a huge built-in advantage in the electoral college

Not to mention his huge built-in advantage in vote fraud.

Posted by: WalrusRex at September 08, 2008 09:14 AM (DVVXZ)

17 The most significant thing from the party ID is that Drill, Drill, Drill, is working big time. The shit is sticking to the Dems in Congress and it's dragging them down along with Obama and the party rep. I think you will stop seeing Dem candidates for Congress crowing about being Dems in their ads soon.

Obama, is toast. He's down 5 for sure and he still has 3 , teleprompterless, debates to get through.
The only one pissing his pants worse than Obama right now is Biden.

Posted by: Rocks at September 08, 2008 09:15 AM (Q1lie)

18 The debates? Biden and Obama? I am not filled with dread.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 08, 2008 09:16 AM (1g+FW)

19 Yes, the Obvious, but remember the debates are coming up. Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials... McCain isn't

Neither was Hillary, but she cleaned Obama's clock, because for all of the hype, Obama just doesn't think well on his feet, and doesn't like to be challenged.

Posted by: Slublog at September 08, 2008 09:16 AM (R8+nJ)

Well she has even worn a shirt admitting to being broke but not flat busted. Now she's niether broke nor flat busted. What's she going to do, get all pissed off and yell at you for using a joke she herself obviously found funny?

Posted by: buzzion at September 08, 2008 09:16 AM (Lrsi6)

21 Christoph you am crazy. Obama will bomb in the debates, name one he has done well in even with the softballs. Biden too, the guy managed to look better than both Hillary and Obama in the Dem debates and still only get 2% of the vote.

Posted by: Rocks at September 08, 2008 09:18 AM (Q1lie)

22 There is comedy gold coming up with Obama at the debates. That I can bank on, McCain will OODA his butt to the wall. All Palin has to do is point at Biden and laugh, it's that easy.

Posted by: mbruce at September 08, 2008 09:19 AM (h/5U0)

23 The only problem I see is... What if we kill the offshore drilling ban in Congress the week before the election? Couldn't that take the issue off the table?

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:19 AM (8WyNq)

24 "Not to mention his huge built-in advantage in vote fraud."

True. Yes, it's going to be a tough race for McCain and Palin. A very tough race. I'm glad they're giving it there all.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:20 AM (hawOV)

25 Since Obama has a huge built-in advantage in the electoral college

I'm just not seeing this built-in advantage. RCP - noleaners plus CO is a McCain win, even without NH which I think he will take as well.

Posted by: toby hussein 928 at September 08, 2008 09:21 AM (evdj2)

26 Neither was Hillary, but she cleaned Obama's clock, because for all of the hype, Obama just doesn't think well on his feet, and doesn't like to be challenged.

Shit, even Silky cleaned Obama's clock in one of the debates. The debates are the one thing that I'm absolutely not worried about.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 08, 2008 09:22 AM (Ds4I5)

27 Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials...

He's evidenced in interviews that he's not a smooth talker, as at Saddleback and with Stephanopolous recently.

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 08, 2008 09:23 AM (MMC8r)

14 Yes, the Obvious, but remember the debates are coming up. Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials... McCain isn't

Obama is a smooth talking man when he has a teleprompter in front of him. McCain is much better speaking on his feet without drawing from a script. Also considering performances at saddleback, while obama looked good mccain looked better and didn't find any questions to be above his paygrade.

Joe Biden is so much more experienced in debating than Sarah Palin.

And he's a long-winded blowhard. See if you can find the governor debates for Alaska. Apparently Palin gave good answers without any need to use all of the allotted time. In a debate I'm going to bet that Biden will pull off part of the South Park Douche vs Turd Sandwich debate method, and Palin will actually give an answer.

More to the point, her focus has been state policy, with only limited federal focus on energy, and very little international.

In a state where the focus has concerns that are important to the energy of the nation. As well as her actually having to deal with a foreign nation to get something done. You can claim Biden has had a lot more dealings in international policy, but he's been wrong when dealing with it.

Posted by: buzzion at September 08, 2008 09:25 AM (Lrsi6)

29 Shit, even Silky cleaned Obama's clock in one of the debates.

Shit, even Biden cleaned Obama's clock in one of the debates.

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at September 08, 2008 09:25 AM (MMC8r)

30 Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials...

You say that like its a net positive, or something.

Posted by: DaveS at September 08, 2008 09:27 AM (z9gCU)

"14 Yes, the Obvious, but remember the debates are coming up. Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials... McCain isn't"

Just like Bush has Harvard credentials, and he is all smooth talking an all....

Love ya W.

Posted by: Javems at September 08, 2008 09:28 AM (hq71Y)

32 One problem the GOP faces is a growing sense of desperation. Even Ed Morrissey has caught it.

Here he's acknowledging Obama didn't commit plagiarism per se, but thinks Obama borrowed a story from Jack Layton, Canada's socialist New Democratic Party leader, and simply changed the location of the story during his convention speech to make it appear American and authentic.

Couldn't this exact same situation also have happened to a specific Indiana worker Obama is aware of?

Comparing Obama to Joe Biden's plagiarism record shows the wrenching political fear gripping Republican pundits.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:28 AM (hawOV)

33 I've long said Barry is toast, and he is. Retaking the Senate seems crazy, though, with so many crappy candidates of ours up this year. We're definitely losing VA (Mark Warner), and possibly ol' corrupt Ted in AK. I suspect we'll defend the other contested Rs, particularly if Barry craters. But what could we possibly pick up -- LA, maybe? SD, if Johnson's health deteriorates? Not much ground for advancement this year -- we did well in 2002.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:29 AM (8WyNq)

34 So, Christoph is still in the Denial phase of grief, while most Dems skipped straight ahead to Anger.

Posted by: cybrludite at September 08, 2008 09:29 AM (nLnEq)

35 I'll throw my prediction out right now: We're looking at another GOP landslide a la Reagan.

If the backlash against the media continues and the media continues to befoul themselves combined with Obama/Biden performing poorly in the debates will equal a landslide.

You heard it here first.

Posted by: mpur at September 08, 2008 09:30 AM (rYU1I)

36 Comparing Obama to Joe Biden's plagiarism record shows the wrenching political fear gripping Republican pundits.

Ooookaaay...

Posted by: Slublog at September 08, 2008 09:30 AM (R8+nJ)

Joe Biden is so much more experienced in debating than Sarah Palin. More to the point, her focus has been state policy, with only limited federal focus on energy, and very little international.

At least for now, economics are in, foreign policy is out--and to the degree that it's popular, McCain is holding the latter portfolio. Freddie/Fannie takeover, energy policy, pocketbook issues--that's what people are keying on. "Drill Baby Drill" is the new "Morning In America." Pocketbook issues are gravy for governors...especially governors who've sat on the AOGCC. When she starts talkin' oil and gas and drillin' and shit at Mr. Plagiarism? Time to rumble.

She's not worried about the debates.

Posted by: railwriter at September 08, 2008 09:30 AM (nwEiU)

38 "Comparing Obama to Joe Biden's plagiarism record shows the wrenching political fear gripping Republican pundits."

LOLOLOL

Dude, either you're an idiot, a concern troll, or off in dreamworld.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:31 AM (8WyNq)

39 Or, put another way, I'm pretty excited by McCain/Palin's chances, and I don't want to be disappointed if this wondrous situation reverses itself.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:31 AM (hawOV)

40 Much as it pains me to do so, I must agree with Christoph that both the Senate and House are going to the Donks this year, barring some kind of miracle. The Senate may even deliver a veto-proof majority, which would substantially reduce any benefit the GOP would see from a presidential win. But I really can't muster up any hot tears of outrage since the GOP hasn't exactly been a model of restraint and fiscal probity. Maybe a few years in the wilderness will give them what my old baseball coach used to call "a bench conversion to the ways of righteousness".

Remember when nationalizing failed businesses used to be derided as the move of a corrupt, tyrannical state? If that's what the GOP is about these days, they deserve to lose.

Posted by: Monty at September 08, 2008 09:33 AM (4Pleu)

41 Fear? Of getting terminal hiccups maybe.

Posted by: mbruce at September 08, 2008 09:34 AM (h/5U0)

1. It looks like McCain should only lose this thing by a few points, when all's said and done.

2. I'm pretty excited by McCain/Palin's chances...

Dude. Pick.

Posted by: railwriter at September 08, 2008 09:35 AM (nwEiU)

Christoph,

Yes, the RCP average showing McCain leading has really got conservatives shaking. The smell of fear is in the air.

Google search for "Obama tanking": 9110 hits

Google search for "Mccain tanking": 290 hits

I've always wondered, what color is the sky in Bizzaro World?

Posted by: David at September 08, 2008 09:35 AM (Hj9yW)

McCain won't have to keep track of all of the nuances and any inoperable prior statements during the debates, as the young clean One will.

Palin will have Biden choking on his own tongue during their debate.

Hope popcorn is on sale soon.

Posted by: roy at September 08, 2008 09:37 AM (cB77O)

45 I agree with Monty that predictions about a huge GOP landslide in the House and Senate are unlikely - I plan to vote McCain/Palin but write in the name of a relative, co-worker or ace of spades commenter (any suggestions?) for Senate. Every single one of Susan Collins' ads this season are about the federal money she's brought to Maine. That and her general squishiness on matters important to conservatives gives me little reason to vote for her.

Posted by: Slublog at September 08, 2008 09:38 AM (R8+nJ)

46 Christoph, give it up already. EM basically says even if it isn't plagiarism it was still total bs. I thought the same when Obama said it in Denver. Why the fuck would a worker from the plant be the one packing it up? Why too would he just be finding out then anyway? Moves like that take a long time.

Posted by: Rocks at September 08, 2008 09:38 AM (Q1lie)

It's all downhill for the "one" from now on.

Remember the debates? Sarah will kick ass. Barry will look like a school kid next to McCain.

So where do we start?

Ad's with Ayers standing on the flag? Ads with Rezo prep walked out and the One's house?

Want a real low blow? The "One's" earmark to the Chicago hospital where his wife works and she just happens to get a $200,000 raise after they get the earmark?

I guess we'll NEVER see Rev Wright again? Yeah, right.

So, you think the NRA is going to sit this out? NOT!

Change, right "O" you got it. You'll need it for a cup of coffee in December.

They are so fucking toast, lightly browned!!

Posted by: kempermanx at September 08, 2008 09:39 AM (2+9Yx)

48 Lots of crappy candidates in the Republican run for the Senate no doubt, but a rising tide carries all boats. The Repubs might, just might squeak out a hand full of races they have no business winning. In the Senate that would be enough. The odds are against it, but it's not out of the realm of possibility any more, and as the Democratic base goes crazier and crazier it becomes more possible. People hate corruption. People fear insanity. The crazier the left acts the more likely people are to hold their nose and vote for losers like Warner et.al. I could very well be wrong, the left might get itself under control, but I suspect they have just begun to froth. The more they froth the more the Republican old guard will look acceptable.

Posted by: The Obvious at September 08, 2008 09:41 AM (1g+FW)

49 Christoph, give it up already. EM basically says even if it isn't plagiarism it was still total bs.

Posted by: Rocks at September 08, 2008 02:38 PM (Q1lie)

Devil. Meet advocate.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 09:41 AM (hawOV)

The only problem I see is... What if we kill the offshore drilling ban in Congress the week before the election? Couldn't that take the issue off the table?

Not at all. If that happens it will be another thing that Barry was against and lost just like the surge. Any honest American will admit that the surge has worked and has gotten us significantly closer to getting out of Iraq. The Democrat led congress nickle and dimed the military and delayed the surge and most certainly cost us more lives.

Obama is on the record saying that he didn't have a problem with gas costing $4.50/gal. and went on to say that $10.00/gal. gas would be good because it would get more cars off the roads.

America usually rewards people who were on the right side of the big issues from the beginning. We don't like losers.

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at September 08, 2008 09:42 AM (5GNS+)

51 "Devil. Meet advocate."

You're trolling, then.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:42 AM (8WyNq)

52 Minx ate my previous comment, noting another pickup if McCain wins -- CT, where RINO governor Jodi Rell gets to appoint Lieberman's replacement if (when) he becomes Secretary of State.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:43 AM (8WyNq)

53 I added a lot more to this post and I think it's pretty good (and funny).

Posted by: ace at September 08, 2008 09:44 AM (1WR4H)

54 Gallop Shallop. Who cares!

You missed the biggest polling results of the day.

The LA Times is doing an internet poll on does Sarah Palin dress like a VP.

Right now 57% voted yes.

link

You morons could drive that number higher.

BTW the dark red peep toe pumps she wore when she was introduced as the VP in Ohio were by Naughty Monkey.

Posted by: Long Island at September 08, 2008 09:45 AM (Cjir0)

55 I dunno Slu, I think Collins is as good as Maine is going to get. She's not GOOD but she's not actively on the other side like Snowe so often is.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:45 AM (8WyNq)

56 I hate freeping those polls. They're stupid, and these dumbasses only run them to traffic-whore -- they're *counting* on freeping and Kos-ing to inflate their numbers.

Time magazine did that when they polled -- for like 100 weeks -- on the "Best blog," knowing doofuses like me would beg readers to go over there to vote. I knew their game, but i coudn't help myself.

Posted by: ace at September 08, 2008 09:47 AM (1WR4H)

57 Here in Minnesota, there's a real corker of a Senate race going between Norm Coleman and...wait for it...wait for it...Stuart Smalley! That's right, Al Franken is running on the Democratic ticket against Senator Coleman. Now, Minnesota tends to be ranked as a "blue" state, but it has a popular GOP governor (Pawlenty) and Senator (Coleman). The urban population of the Twin Cities skews the state voting patterns towards the Democrats, but this hasn't really translated into Democratic blowouts in past elections. There is every likelihood that Franken will get beaten like a rented mule in the coming election, and many of the people voting against him are Democrats who will nevertheless pull the lever for Coleman. Why? Because Coleman, like most Minnesotans, is politically moderate and fiscally conservative.

I suspect that this election cycle will have more people eschewing "party politics" than in the past. There's going to be a lot of split-ticket voting.

Posted by: Monty at September 08, 2008 09:48 AM (4Pleu)

58 Ace, I don't see why it doesn't mean anything.

It means that the brand has been polished, whereas before it was teh suck (even for those inclined to agree with R positions). Whatever the cause/effect relationships, this is going to mean more votes up and down the ticket -- via both turnout and flipping squishes.

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:49 AM (8WyNq)

59 It won't be a Reagan landslide, it will be a Nixon landslide, i.e. the GOP will win a buttload of states in the EC, but McCain will have no coattails. We will not gain in the House nor the Senate, and we may even lose some.

Posted by: OregonMuse at September 08, 2008 09:50 AM (FO+YO)

60 Most "independents" are not really all that independent. They don't like party labels -- either because they don't like labels generally ("I'm too complex for labels" -- um, no you're not; You get the label of the guy who thinks he's too complex for labels)

Yeah, I overheard my boss a while back say he's "independent" -- and then in the next breath, say that he always votes for the Democrat candidate.

No, I did not call him on it. He's a nice guy and I value my employment.

Posted by: OregonMuse at September 08, 2008 09:54 AM (FO+YO)

61 So is one of the fun facts about Sarah Palin going to be something about her madly-propped parka goblins being too awesome to be captured by a mere camera, which is why we are assured that any bikini pics/nude shots that turn up on the internet must be false?

Posted by: Alice H at September 08, 2008 09:56 AM (jRtPb)

62 So they do have a poltiical ideology -- and it usually tracks more closely with one party or the other, and despite their protestations of being "undecided," they wind up supporting the candidate you'd expect them to support, based on demographics and basic ideology.

I think this is why America's two-party system works so much better than the multiple small parties of European countries. With a two-party system you get the "big umbrella" issues to bring large coalitions together, but enough room for the various factions to express themselves (e.g. "social cons" versus "fiscal cons" in the GOP ranks). It's a very stable system and prevents a lot of governmental gridlock because Congress doesn't have to waste a lot of time forming alliances and coalitions.

On the down-side, it means that small differences in the centrist voters tend to get magnified. There is probably a lot more philosophical daylight between McCain, say, and someone like Newt Gingrich than there is between McCain and Lieberman. That's why American politics tends to be so bare-knuckle and ugly compared to other Western democracies: the candidates have to trumpet even marginal differences to gain traction. It's always been this way -- the 1864 election season, when Lincoln was running against McClellan, was one of the ugliest campaigns in American history.

Posted by: Monty at September 08, 2008 09:58 AM (4Pleu)

I know we're down low in the moron caves, but if ace or one of his blogging ilk is looking for a schtick he/she/Gabriel could have a recurring series of posts tied into the poll results:

If the Election Were Held Today ...

when McCain is ahead

puppies would be born already potty trained and feline leukemia would be a good thing

spontaneous human combustion would be understood ... and used as a weapon

comic book movies would be good

etc.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at September 08, 2008 09:59 AM (NnAGL)

64 OM: sounds like Joe Lieberman to me.

(Though he, too, is going to vote R this year it seems...)

Posted by: someone at September 08, 2008 09:59 AM (8WyNq)

65

Christoph isn't missing the forest for the trees.
Christoph is missing the forest for the leaves.

As I wrote at Dirty Harry's Place five days ago,

The best thing we can do right now is proudly show our support of Governor Palin while the Left publicly self-destructs.

George W. Bush has done this in every campaign against the Democrats. Stand tall and let the MSM show themselves for what they are. Its worked four times in a row.

Governor of Texas 2x
President of the United States of America 2x

Rush Limbaugh, many years ago, said that if you do the right thing and ignore the media and polls youll win every time. Reagan proved it. President George W. Bush proved it.

McCain and Palin will prove it too.

Posted by: Looking Glass at September 08, 2008 10:02 AM (/j9WY)

Yes, the Obvious, but remember the debates are coming up. Obama's a young smooth talking man of impeccable Harvard credentials... McCain isn't, and Joe Biden is so much more experienced in debating than Sarah Palin. More to the point, her focus has been state policy, with only limited federal focus on energy, and very little international.

So after the debates, expect an Obama/Biden bounce, plus if it's even close it goes Obama's way due to how the electoral college goes this way.

I suggest you g to the CSPAN website and check out the Primary debates with Murkowski. He to had manymanymany years in the Senate AND was the sitting Governor from her own party. How'd that go for him?

Posted by: MAJHAM at September 08, 2008 10:03 AM (NMK3S)

67 I dunno Slu, I think Collins is as good as Maine is going to get. She's not GOOD but she's not actively on the other side like Snowe so often is.

It's more a cumulative effect than anything else - she's not good on social issues, taxes, she got squishy on the war and seems to suffer from the Washington pack mentality in general.

Plus, she flat-out lied to a lot of us about her votes on immigration. I'm not angry that she supported it, but I don't like being lied to about it.

Posted by: Slublog at September 08, 2008 10:04 AM (R8+nJ)

68 There's a simple answer as to why many independents choose to disassociate themselves from the party system; -- money.

It's more than a little off-putting to be harangued by party organizers who are constantly mooching for cash donations...

That's what children do/are for...

Bottom line: I'm a cheap bastard.

Posted by: A conservative Rugged Individualist (not-gay) at September 08, 2008 10:05 AM (zAvxs)

69 Rezko? Ayers? Who the fuck are they? Never heard of 'em.

Posted by: Typical MSM-educated voter at September 08, 2008 10:07 AM (plsiE)

70 Could the tide have turned so drastically that the seats the Dems have counted on in the House and Senate may actually be affected by the change in McCain's fortunes? How ironic would it be if Lieberman caucused with the GOP and cast the deciding vote giving them the majority and allow McCain to stack the SCOTUS conservatively? And if the GOP cuts into the Dem's house advantage enough so that the Blue Dog Dems allow McCain to pass his programs? Jeez things change fast now. I just hope Palin doesn't peak too early.

Posted by: docweasel at September 08, 2008 10:09 AM (XmjZg)

71 Or, put another way, I'm pretty excited by McCain/Palin's chances, and I don't want to be disappointed if this wondrous situation reverses itself.

Nice work, Christoph... You could've been a troll contender!

Posted by: Bender Bending Rodriguez at September 08, 2008 10:09 AM (QQGzM)

There is about a 0% chance the Donks lose the House.

As for the Senate.....if they can flip LA, SD, MI, or MT, then this could really be fun to watch and we'll have a run on popcorn.

Posted by: Francase at September 08, 2008 10:11 AM (nrLPb)

This point in the election cycle I usually claim to be independant or libertarian; otherwise the already small chance that a woman in a bar will talk to me is reduced to near zero.

I'm pretty sure that I could claim to be an HIV infected Satanist and not drive away as many women in Minneapolis as I would if I talked of being openly Republican.

Not that I need any help driving women away in bars. Turns out that leering at them in a creepy serial-killer kind of way isn't as successful as you'd think.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at September 08, 2008 10:14 AM (plsiE)

I always thought Bush should have played hardball w/the Maine Senators on the ANWR vote. That was back when we were doing a round of base-cutting and they were lobbying for a large shipyard to stay. That was a close vote, dammit.

This is why Bush has a 30% rating instead of a 50% rating. If he would stop pissing off the Repubs, he would have the support of half the country as a given.

Posted by: Dogstar at September 08, 2008 10:15 AM (6AcsH)

75 Who will the F(uckif)INOs vote for? The hot chick, of course.

Posted by: roy at September 08, 2008 10:17 AM (cB77O)

76 I'm a independent Republican with libertarian leanings that sometimes coincide with Democrat positions but more frequently with the Constitutional party with some sympathies with the Greenies. But only on Tuesdays.

Posted by: apolitical poster at September 08, 2008 10:18 AM (m2CN7)

Unfortunately he needed the Maine Senators for other votes. Being President in a split Congress is tough.

Posted by: apolitical poster at September 08, 2008 10:21 AM (m2CN7)

78 Ace,
Regarding your addendum I would say true and I am similar in a way. I did not like Reagan much at the time. I didn't hate him but from the Air Traffic Controllers (who were wrong but it could have been handled better) to the Savings and Loan mess to Iran-Contra there was a lot that bothered me. I was a Democrat, I liked Dukakis, really. I am still a registered Dem and probably always will ID myself as one. But I rarely vote Democratic now , why? The Repubs, generally, have my views now. Much more than Dems anyway. When did I start? When Bill Clinton, after 12 years out of the WH, made the first thing he did as President what? Gays in the military.
12 fucking years and the first thing is that BS? Is this where my party was going?
Turns out yeah it was, I didn't really pay much attention to the Bork hearings.
I was and am all for Civil Rights, but it's a goal to be achieved, not a friggin industry.

Posted by: Rocks at September 08, 2008 10:21 AM (Q1lie)

Damn footcovering Pinnochio

Posted by: polynikes at September 08, 2008 10:22 AM (m2CN7)

Donks could lose 5 seats in PA alone if McCain carries the state. I don't see them picking up more than VA in the Senate. Even lousy Ted Stevens will probably be reelected thanks to the Saracuda. Supposedly the GOP has written off Heather Wilson in NM but I would not count on it. Dems will not win that seat in Colorado now either, and they are already talking about a Torricelli strategy in MN. And they can forget about anything as crazy as beating Mitch McConnell.

I just spent an hour talking to an old friend who lives in northern VA. He hates John McCain but already has his ticket to see him and Sarah Palin on Wednesday and is going to canvass his precinct now for McCain/Palin. He thinks this ticket might even save Tom Davis' House seat in Fairfax. He said the GOP headquarters there is as crazy as he has ever seen it in 30 years.

Posted by: rockmom at September 08, 2008 10:24 AM (iZqUY)

81 Present.

Posted by: Barack Obama at September 08, 2008 10:34 AM (lJ5Fz)

I fail to see why they cannot ask question #23.

It would get me to answer it honestly, at least.

Posted by: Entropy at September 08, 2008 10:36 AM (m6c4H)

83 Ace, thanks for your tale of coming out of the Republican closet. I'm not there yet, I just re-registered to vote and had the chance to check Republican. Did I? No. I declined to state a party. It's not so much that I have a problem with the Republican label, I'm definitely center-right on some issues and really conservative on most others so I'm not kidding myself, but I'm just unwilling to deal with the public perception of conservatives and Republicans from my family and peers. My parents are dyed in the wool dems and a significant majority of my friends are liberals. Oh, and I live in the Bay Area. So if you're not a flaming commie lib around here you might as well be a cross-burning, knuckle dragging nazi. Maybe when I grow up a little I'll stop caring so much what other people think of me and just come out and admit it: I'm a Republican! I'm here! Get used to it!

Posted by: ehw at September 08, 2008 10:37 AM (xpaNr)

84 Point is, it's hard to call oneself a Republican.

Dude, you have no idea.

Posted by: The Black Republican at September 08, 2008 10:43 AM (bt3om)

85 And it ought be mentioned, neither do I.

Posted by: The Black Republican at September 08, 2008 10:44 AM (bt3om)

86 TBR,
I'm a college prof. I'm white but trust me, I'm in the same boat. It's damned nigh impossible to be a Republican and still have a job in this oh-so-tolerant environment. That's why I claim to be a 'classical liberal' -- most Democrats don't know what the fuck that means anyway.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at September 08, 2008 10:55 AM (14k+t)

87 Come out of the closet, Nom.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 11:09 AM (hawOV)

88 Everyone yammering about the electoral college will choose should remember this:
Lots of (Democratic leaning) states changed their laws so that their slate of electors must follow the national popular vote!
http://pirate-king.com/episode/3114

Basically, the polls showing McCain/Palin in the popular vote lead in the US means that 4 states showing Blue, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey, must be switched to Red.

Posted by: Chad at September 08, 2008 11:14 AM (V5CE3)

I think it would be better if people could register not just for the party, but for the subset of the party. I'm registered Libertarian because other republicans annoy me. They just annoy me so very much less than democrats that I have yet to vote democrat. Ever.

re: Posted by: The Black Republican at September 08, 2008 03:44 PM (bt3om)

I wonder what could possibly tip any of those leftists off as to what your political leanings would be? They aren't the sharpest knives in the drawer if you know what I mean and I think you do.

Posted by: The Atom Bomb of Loving Kindness at September 08, 2008 11:14 AM (Pl6My)

90 Christoph,
That would not be prudent until after I achieve tenure.
And I'm likely leaving the academy anyway because there's so much money in the private sector.
Damned capitalist am I.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at September 08, 2008 11:15 AM (14k+t)

91 Three things made me Republican, though I followed a similar path as Ace. It was about "growing up". I was from a conservative Democrat family who hadn't voted Republican since Eisenhower. But, we were a family of law enforcement and military with a lot of working with our hands folks.

The three things that happened in this order:

9/11 (security Democrat)
Democrats and ideological compatriots talking about "why did they attack us?" and saying it was our fault, then going on to say that a six week campaign in Afghanistan was a "quagmire" (yeah, it started there) (I think I'm a democrat, but they pissing me off and I am leaning Republican, calling myself "independent")
Finally, I started making a certain amount of money and bought a house. Which, in turn, made me ask "what the hell am I paying all of these taxes for?" (Republican)

Posted by: kat-missouri at September 08, 2008 11:15 AM (io+Si)

92 Nom won't come out of the closet.

Posted by: Christoph at September 08, 2008 11:22 AM (hawOV)

93 It's true.
Nom won't risk his career on the altar of his political beliefs.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at September 08, 2008 11:24 AM (14k+t)

Before this all we knew about Ace was the AoSHQ lifestyle (vodka/hobos/D&D/celibacy) which is frankly all we really needed to keep us coming back, but it's nice to see Ace opening up a little.

but I'm just unwilling to deal with the public perception of conservatives and Republicans from my family and peers. .... Oh, and I live in the Bay Area.

Don't I know it! I live in the Bay Area as well and stay in the closet to avoid getting my car keyed and the frequent casual displays of hate. Life is hard enough without having to deal with the additional hassle of being reviled and ostracized because of your political beliefs. I vote every election even though I know my vote is completely wasted in a sea of blue voters.

Posted by: Maetenloch at September 08, 2008 11:37 AM (hn7Rm)

95 McCain still has a touch of the moonbat when it comes to illegal immigration
http://www.diggersrealm.com/mt/archives/002932.html

Posted by: ehh at September 08, 2008 11:55 AM (1tT/D)

I am a registered Republican, but if a pollster called me and asked my party affiliation, I wouldn't give it. Not because of shame (at least not all the time) but because I know that 90 plus percent of these people are Democrats and pretty rabid ones at that. And frankly I hate talking on the telephone anyway, much less with someone who wants to lecture me about how I'm so stupid and evil and how I should embrace "change" and what-not.

So yeah, I'd say "independent" too.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at September 08, 2008 12:03 PM (kLWtB)

The House of Representatives (as you morons know) is much quicker to flip when the tide turns.

Assuming present trends continue, and that Palin/McCain do no worse than hold serve in the debates, I would not be shocked if we pick up a few seats in the House. I don't think I'm deep enough into the kool-aid yet to really contemplate retaking the House.

The fucking Senate is a lost cause. Best we can hope for there is to hold the Rats to 55 seats which, accounting for RINOs, might allow the occasional filibuster to succeed.

If McCain/Palin wipe the floor with the two bozos from hope, and any attempted Rat/MSM October surprises backfire....hell, I guess we could see an across the board massacre.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 08, 2008 12:06 PM (wgLRl)

98 84 Point is, it's hard to call oneself a Republican.

Dude, you have no idea.

Posted by: The Black Republican at September 08, 2008 03:43 PM (bt3om)

That was funny.

Posted by: adolfo_velasquez at September 08, 2008 12:23 PM (S3K4O)

Sweet. Just delightfully sweet.

Like Mooseburgers!

Posted by: ArandomPerson at September 08, 2008 01:11 PM (MSMPS)

100

Christophe,

How do you assume that O! has a built-in electoral college advantage, when the history of the last 50 years show that the GOP almost always has the advantage in the EC?

Even looking at state polls (the only ones reported that we have are ones taken when O! was up significantly in the national head-to-head in early summer) show O! squeeking out 273 EC votes. Once we start to see the same movement in the state-by-state polls, it seems logical that McCain will begin to move ahead in most of the "battleground states" where he is behind in the last poll by less than 1 or 2%.

As to congress, house or senate, I doubt very much that the GOP will reclaim either house, but the dems are not going to have the historic year they have been claiming. Instead, it will likely remain about the same or the GOP may gain a few seats in the house. It certainly will not be the bloodbath that's been predicted up to now. My guess is that the GOP wins back one or both houses in 2010.

Posted by: Great Banana at September 08, 2008 01:34 PM (9hB6b)

101

Hmmm, with all that vaunted new voter registration done by Obama and now the voter ID almost even; I wonder how many of those new voters are identifying with republicans instead of those that actually registered them?

If there were enough of them that did ID republican (or leaning rep) that would be too funny.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at September 08, 2008 01:46 PM (MSMPS)

102

Ace,

My conversion to the dark side was about the exact same as yours. I suspect the same is true of most people. Although, in my case, I was really, really, really liberal for a few years. I suspect that it was b/c I never actuall heard or read a counter-argument until after I left college.

Posted by: Great Banana at September 08, 2008 02:04 PM (9hB6b)

103 Let's not discount the military vote. I think active military as well as veterans are gonna go overwhelmingly for McCain.

Not much of a prediction, I know. But I think the turnout among military types will be substantial.

Posted by: mpur at September 08, 2008 05:05 PM (rYU1I)

104 Chad, @#88: Everyone yammering about the electoral college will choose should remember this:
Lots of (Democratic leaning) states changed their laws so that their slate of electors must follow the national popular vote!
http://pirate-king.com/episode/3114

Basically, the polls showing McCain/Palin in the popular vote lead in the US means that 4 states showing Blue, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey, must be switched to Red.

No. That's an inter-state compact that won't be enacted until the signatory states total 270 EV: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amar_Plan (I can't get the link embedder to work).

Posted by: marchand chronicles at September 08, 2008 05:08 PM (lJ5Fz)

105 TMF,
Those union members voted for Reagan in 1984.
That is, if they were old enough to vote...

Posted by: Nom de Blog at September 08, 2008 05:09 PM (14k+t)

106 You know, I'm currently listed as Independent, though I definitely lean to the right. Only reason I don't just admit it is because, deep down inside...I have to put up with Democrats in my family. Hardcore artsy "Republicans are the spawn of Satan" Democrats. So I keep my mouth shut. I tell them I don't care for politics and then stuff my mouth with food so they don't ask. And, on polling day, I quietly pull the lever for Republican candidates and laugh, knowing I just countered a family member's vote.

Does this make me a bad person?

Posted by: Ack at September 08, 2008 05:45 PM (qhAlm)

107 Does this make me a bad person?

I hope not, that's pretty much what I do. Except when I'm getting into arguments with my dad about immigration, of course...

Posted by: ehw at September 08, 2008 05:54 PM (xpaNr)

108 "If anyone has made the transition from Democrat to Republican (as I have), you know what I'm talking about. Calling myself a Democrat in my youth was a cost-free choice. Hey, they were the cool guys.'

YEP.

Not only were the Democrats the cool guys, they were the good guys, end of story.

Somehow, at an early age, I "knew" that the Democrats were the good guys. I remember learning about Chappaquidick in high school. It's a horrible story, but the good news (I thought at the time) was that Teddy Kennedy was not destroyed by it. Because he's a Good Guy(tm). Whew, a sigh of relief.

Similarly, I felt disappointment learning about McGovern and his failure to get voted in.

My parents never told me how they voted, and never talked about politics. Yet somehow I had absorbed the "fact" that the Democrats were the good guys.

Posted by: qrstuv at September 08, 2008 06:28 PM (wjBNv)

109 I read somewhere that Palin was very good in the governororial debates during her 2006 campaign. She should do well against Biden. I suspect her target will be Obama, anyway.

Posted by: lmg at September 08, 2008 06:43 PM (A/vgC)

110 According to a comment I heard on POTUS08 (XM Radio 130), you can't rely on those electoral college numbers right now because the state level polls haven't been updated since the convention. The map may begin to turn red over the next few weeks if McCain/Palin maintain their lead.

Posted by: lmg at September 08, 2008 06:48 PM (A/vgC)

111 All it took to turn me to the right was James Earl Carter. What a complete and utter haste of protoplasm he was, is, and forever will be. He is the exemplar of the Left's complete and total uselessness, stupidity, and undeserved arrogance.

Posted by: The Atom Bomb of Loving Kindness at September 08, 2008 06:48 PM (0FHr8)

112 qrstuv at September 08, 2008 06:28 PM

Wow, me too. I never really thought that much about it before, but with my parents the democrats were always the "good guys". It's funny that you mentioned Chappaquidick. I remember when my mom told me about that story (it happened before I was born, but I guess it came up and she explained it to me.) Her attitude was one of resignation. Like, yes, this was pretty bad, and technically it was probably manslaughter, but he's a Democrat so we'll just take the best and leave the rest or something. On the other hand, I grew up with an almost inbred hatred of Richard Nixon. Richard Nixon was, like, the epitome of political corruption in my house, the subject of utter contempt and vitriol. My parents despised him, apparently he had not one redeeming quality and thoroughly bad.

Richard Nixon knew about some other people who broke into a hotel and stole documents and secrets from the democrats, and then lied about it after. (I don't even remember if he knew about it before the break in, or just after.) Ted Kennedy left a woman to drown in a car, after driving drunk off a bridge.

Posted by: Wonderduck at September 08, 2008 06:49 PM (xpaNr)

113 sorry, didn't mean to use that name in the last post...

Posted by: ehw at September 08, 2008 06:51 PM (xpaNr)

114 But I really can't muster up any hot tears of outrage since the GOP hasn't exactly been a model of restraint and fiscal probity. Maybe a few years in the wilderness will give them what my old baseball coach used to call "a bench conversion to the ways of righteousness".

Man, that's just so ten days ago.

Posted by: lmg at September 08, 2008 06:58 PM (A/vgC)

115 And the liberals were predicting the end of the GOP back some months ago and that included the WASHINGTON MOTLEY and how JIMMY HOFFA Jr HEY MR HOFFA WHERE YOU PAW? IN THE DOOR PANAL OF YOUR LIMO OR IN THE FOUNDATION OF YOUR NEW HQ?

Posted by: Spurwing Plover at September 08, 2008 07:12 PM (Pncvw)

116 Ace, brilliant post. You've got me pinned. When I turned 18, it was 2006 and I was very unhappy with the Republican party. I would never register as a Democrat, but I felt that Republicans were corrupt and some were bailing in the Iraq war. I registered as Independent. I felt validated in my choice during the primaries-- I felt like many of the complainers about McCain's nomination were basically saying the Republican party only belonged to the super-conservative-- the moderates could go hang themselves. But, McCain was chosen-- and he chose Palin. They're everything I could have hoped for (minus McCain's views on amnesty). Yeah, it's suddenly cool to be a Republican. But it's more than that. Palin and McCain, and reform, and small government? Yeah, those are the ideals I can get behind. Cracking down on pork and hawkish foreign policy? I'm there. So I'm switching my registration to the Republican party. This I can get behind, and support passionately. And the MSM has proved to me that there's more REAL feminists in the Republican party than there are in the Democratic party.

Posted by: Amy at September 08, 2008 08:21 PM (U0dI+)

117 There was a Survey USA poll that Allahpundit over at Hot Air linked to this weekend that had significantly oversampled Republicans--the ratio was something like 40:30:30--and at the time I suggested it might reflect a shift in party identification. I didn't think that 40% of the electorate was self-identifying as Republican now, of course, but I did think it suggested enough "Independents" had decided to come out of the closet as Republicans and enough "Democrats" had decided to go back in that it was once more possible to overpoll Republicans.

Posted by: Eukardios at September 08, 2008 08:53 PM (96qG1)

118 Ace, oh chief of morons: Do you feel better now? I have always been an independent. I do not join anything (I had to join three unions--two were just part of the contract and the third was hardly a free choice either!). I am to the right of Republicans, because they have drifted left. I voted against Carter twice! Strangely I have a personal note from him in his own hand--that freaks people out that know me! I did not tell him that I thought him the worst president in my lifetime (and he must be the worst former president of all time!). I wrote to him and sent him some flies because of an entirely different issue (basically it was an anti-MSM thing before it was cool!). It has been increasingly pointless to even vote in Oregon, but I do it anyway. Many times I have to choose between the old Dem or the new Dem. I vote for the new Dem figuring that there will at least be a bit of time for that person to get up to speed to inflict the usual damage. Even our supposed Republicans aren't very conservative. I identify myself as a conservative. I do not try to lie to anyone. People hate trying to poll me. If I do not like the question I will change it. If I hate the answers I will add my own or edit their answers! If they want my opinion I will give it to them, but I never fit into any poll written by people who always have an agenda which is usually pretty damn obvious. I realize that I am an outlier and I am wasting their time, but I say good! They deserve it. I am not a moderate or undecided. Those folk deserve all of your vitriol. They're pansies. I am not going to join some stupid ass party which has no chance and just muddies the waters. I vote Republican because it is the best I can do. At some point we have to have some people with the balls to turn things around and restrain the government. I can't believe all the information which they have to have these days. It is asinine. I have to give my social security number to a clerk to get a damn fishing license. What the hell is up with that! Big brother needs a serious stake put in its heart. The Dems crack me up with their concern over foreign terrorists and felons rights, but they are the ones behind hassling regular folk. That is insanity. If the Republicans fought more, rather than merely managing a retreat, then maybe I would join the party. I figure I will be dead before then, so I doubt I will ever need to change. If there was some tactical reason to change, I might, but the situation never comes up. I have to vote for people like Gordon Smith, so I do not need any more grief from people such as you! P.S. Slu: if I have to vote for Smith you can vote for Collins. I always say that I will not vote for Smith after he does something outrageous, but how can I not vote against a guy who sounds like a punk union thug who has lots of support from around the nation. It is pathetic that Smith is the best that we can do, but the radicals have moved into Portland and they run the state. The potential for fraud here is huge with our ridiculous vote-by-mail system. Supposedly they have some non-professional looking at my signature to verify that it is really me. What a joke! My signature was never good, but it has degraded to the point I would even guess that it is a fraud! At least as an independent they do not have a clue where I really stand, and that is all to the good with incompetents and lefty zealots running the show (in their hubris they probably assume that I am to the left of the Dems!). I have seen them in action, and I joked once at a family gathering that I could have stuck a bunch of ballots down my pants since they were strewn everywhere (and this was even before Sandy Berger did his thing!). I once wrote Phil Keisling about such things since my ballot had been sent out to the burbs somewhere (I wonder if my vote didn't just get wiped out that year), and he acted as if I was a nut. I guess it is similar to questioning their patriotism, but I was just saying that the process was incompetent and at least prone to fraud! The truth hurts--tough shit about your feelings! So many things just make next to no sense and yet people look funny at me for my views (and those are people in my own family!). Oh well, I am off to bed.

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