August 20, 2008
— Ace The last tidbit in the post is the clincher.
Well, not a clincher, really. But it seems Obama's running mate will be Evan Bayh.
Who voted in favor of the War in Iraq.
Obama's attempt to lend himself foreign policy experience by osmosis has led him to select a man who, in his figuring, voted in favor of the worst foreign policy blunder of the past century.
Just to get it out of the way early, I question Evan Bayh's patriotism.
This is a boring, safe choice. So my not-really-serious prediction about the collapsing Obama choosing Hillary seems wrong.
Despite a Zogby poll showing Obama falling by a net 15 points, going from a 47-40 advantage to a 46-41 deficit.
As Hot Air notes (and we all know), Zogby's polls are... interesting. We all suspect, as the Freepers say, he adds "secret sauce" to the polls, weighting on things it's very dangerous to weight on (party identification, for example), and thus showing more dramatic swings and bigger leads than other, more cautious pollsters.
But this is another poll showing a big swing in favor of McCain and against Obama. Something has obviously happened. Obama's lost -- oh, let's just divide by two -- somewhere between 5 and 8 net points over a month or two.
Obama probably should be making a dramatic, high-impact choice for Veep. And McCain should probably be making a safe, don't-rock-the-boat choice. Obama didn't, and I'm guessing McCain won't.
Obama Denies Indiana Trip: Hm.
DrewM. thinks it's dangerous for Obama to lie like that, even in this sort of situation, where lying is, as in poker, more acceptable.
Posted by: Ace at
09:50 AM
| Comments (52)
Post contains 282 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: mpur at August 20, 2008 09:55 AM (mk3d7)
Obama-Bayh could be Bayh Bayh Obama.
Posted by: Matt Monell at August 20, 2008 09:56 AM (tJA4L)
Posted by: DrewM. at August 20, 2008 09:57 AM (hlYel)
Posted by: mpur at August 20, 2008 10:00 AM (mk3d7)
Posted by: Eleven at August 20, 2008 10:01 AM (7DB+a)
This is a bad decision if Obama really wants to win. Dude has tunnel vision.
Republicans win Virginia with Bayh -- McCain wins.
Unless McCain is insane enough to pick Lieberman.
Posted by: mesablue at August 20, 2008 10:02 AM (5yNaE)
Posted by: Eleven at August 20, 2008 10:03 AM (7DB+a)
Sometimes I get the feeling that Obama's only running for president so he can pocket all the money he's raising for he and Michelle's children. If he seriously wants to be the president he would have had his nose far up the clinton's ass. (Sorry about that mental picture)
Posted by: Clonefan at August 20, 2008 10:05 AM (17uwu)
Posted by: mpur at August 20, 2008 10:05 AM (mk3d7)
Posted by: mare at August 20, 2008 10:06 AM (xMkst)
Link doesn't work.
So Gore lost TN, so will Bayh lose IN.
The ship is sinking. 40 states, said two months ago, we have two months left.
Does anyone not think there is a 10 point Bradley affect in all these polls. Give me a break. MI is NOT going to vote for THE ONE. Neither is WIS, Ohio, PA or NJ!. What are the MSM smoking??
Netroots, enjoy it now, this is the closest you will ever get to the White House.
It's all down hill for them now. The more the moonbats are seen on TV next week, the lower their numbers will get.
Posted by: kempermanx at August 20, 2008 10:08 AM (2+9Yx)
Posted by: mare at August 20, 2008 10:10 AM (xMkst)
Bayh has been the last great hope of the Democratic party since 2004 an in neither of the two cycles has he gotten off the ground.
A friend of mine in college and I used to joke about a goaltender for the NY Rangers named Ron Scott. He was always referred to a their 'goalie of the future'. In fact that was the title he had right up until the day he retired, hardly ever having playing in the NHL.
I get that same feeling about Bayh.
Posted by: DrewM. at August 20, 2008 10:12 AM (hlYel)
BHO lead goes away why?
Bho wrong on energy
BHO wrong on Russia
BHO wrong on abortion
BHO wrong on campaign finance
BHO wrong on nuclear weapons
BHO wrong on taxes
Add into this the fact that the MSM tried to write the Americian people out of the election and acted like the election was just a formality and you get the huge drop in the polls.
BHO the wrong man for the times
Posted by: unseen at August 20, 2008 10:15 AM (aVGmX)
He wasn't going to go anywhere anytime soon. Indiana voters are squishy as all hell and will deliver the state. However, this is a bad pick for trying to pull in the states he'll really need to win.
Posted by: mesablue at August 20, 2008 10:22 AM (5yNaE)
This is just preparation trying to recapture some momentum. The media is only too happy to help. Obama is not taking it easy right now... he's in full attack crazy paranoid mode. He's going to pick an attack dog.
Posted by: ghy at August 20, 2008 10:23 AM (8jYMc)
What if this whole "Obama as presumptive nominee flailing around like a boated carp spineless citizen of the world disaster of a campaign" has been an elaborate false flag operation designed to shield the real democratic nominee-Hillary Clinton- from campaigning herself until it is too late to tack onto another heading and work against her?
I realize this is unlikely, but the main problems she had as a candidate for most people were that she was too well known, too insidery, too mercenary, and yet too tied to a progressive mindset to become an effective leader of the country.
Obama's performance since his clinching of the nomination has done a lot to obfuscate those perceptions of her from voters minds. She could even be seen as a fresh alternative. The question would really be how much damage the party as a whole would suffer and whether it would be worth the risk of rending it asunder at the convention to do so.
I am not saying this is likely, but it is the Clintons...
Posted by: U.S.S. Yorktown at August 20, 2008 10:25 AM (5RlWq)
Posted by: wickedpinto at August 20, 2008 10:25 AM (ul7te)
Posted by: wickedpinto at August 20, 2008 10:26 AM (ul7te)
It's too bad. I was rooting for Carter.
Posted by: Some Guy at August 20, 2008 10:28 AM (lPxkl)
Hillary had the good sense to see a loser, I'm sure. If offered I'm sure she would decline VP.
She'll be back in for years, though. Just like Jason from Friday the 13th, cackling under her hockey mask.
Obama *won't* be back.
Posted by: The Chewbacca Defense at August 20, 2008 10:35 AM (kKO7A)
Posted by: toby hussein 928 at August 20, 2008 10:56 AM (evdj2)
I think ObAma would be crazy to nominate Hillary with him. The whold Vince Foster-Ron Brown thing might be conspiracy mongering at its finest, but would YOU take the chance of being the heartbeat between her and the Presidency?
Posted by: U.S.S. Yorktown at August 20, 2008 11:00 AM (5RlWq)
Posted by: roy at August 20, 2008 11:00 AM (cB77O)
Obama Denies Indiana Trip: Hm.
DrewM. thinks it's dangerous for Obama to lie like that, even in this sort of situation, where lying is, as in poker, more acceptable.
He'll just blame his aides again. Still- between lying to them and his longstanding practice of being inaccessible to the media, he may drive the MSM from being cultish worshippers to mere supporters.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at August 20, 2008 11:05 AM (rf03a)
I think the same for Obama/Sibelis.
If he's going with Bayh that means he's desperate and knows it's no longer inevitable a Dem would win this year. He's counting states and thinks Bayh can deliver Indiana. Indiana will be closer ala Ohio but McCain will still take it.
Nobody goes all out for number 2.
Posted by: Rocks at August 20, 2008 11:20 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: Gary Glitter at August 20, 2008 11:45 AM (nqlWD)
Posted by: L.B.J. Circa 1960 at August 20, 2008 11:52 AM (hlYel)
"You watch: Bill's tap-dancing on the word 'qualified candidate,' Hillary's lockdown of prime speaking time, the continued lack of payoff of her campaign debt, these are all signs that she's still got one more ace to play. Probably on Friday, one major poll will conveniently point to McCain being either in a literal tie or slightly ahead of Obama. At that point, her surrogates begin calling the supers and asking them not to vote Obama, but rather to abstain on the first ballot. She can then step forward and say that all the delegates should decide in an open vote whom they really want.. I mean, you've already got Moulitsas publicly having cold feet, and he's the freaking leading edge of the Prog online movement. Buyer's remorse, my boy, buyer's remorse --but Auntie Hilly can still make things all better, doncha know..."
I don't think it will happen, but it is an interesting theory.
Posted by: Original Roy at August 20, 2008 11:52 AM (vtR2g)
Posted by: cv at August 20, 2008 12:43 PM (GmamD)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 20, 2008 02:01 PM (0+Ggj)
Posted by: Bart: at August 20, 2008 02:07 PM (mr1eR)
Posted by: Mikey NTH at August 20, 2008 02:23 PM (TUWci)
Posted by: Esteban at August 20, 2008 02:27 PM (X7Ey1)
Posted by: Rev Dr The Man E Buzz Fucking Fuck Off Fuck at August 20, 2008 02:49 PM (sf4Oe)
What sucks is I really can't stand McCain, really can't stand the guy, arrogant elitist asshole.
Remember McCain called those of us who were against his amnesty swindle racist as well, he is not above playing that card either.
Posted by: uniball at August 20, 2008 02:52 PM (27iEn)
...the finest mediocrity. Like going out "fine dining" at In And Out Burger
Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 20, 2008 03:01 PM (6L459)
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at August 20, 2008 03:10 PM (5aa4z)
Posted by: Stinky Esposito at August 20, 2008 03:24 PM (MMC8r)
Ace deserves a great heapin helpin o تَكْبِير for gettin all you Tools in off the ledge- Is startin to worry bout ol Ace maybe gettin carpool tenets elbow from all the suicide hot tubbin- an a special Hey! out to good buddy Zogby- boy maybe got him a Iss-lamo handle like that ol Mooslimb King Zog from Albania an he may do some everythin jus a lill bit different than the Liberal Media wants but he do pitch in donhe? Week back Tuesday to Thursday ol Zog asks a bunch of a bunch of volunteers to swear on the stack of their dads colonoscopy reports they for sure gonna vote come November an BAM! up pops the Chosen One by 3 [way inside the Zargin of error so a statistical tie] .Then old Zog gets out the phone book and starts dialling and punching in strange numbers an asks em if maybe can they recall voting for or nay to Bush at some point & if they say they reckon so then how they gonna vote now- & after ol Zog gets finished explainin why they cant just do that again WHOMP! In barges McHero by 6 [still just inside the Zargin of error so a statistical tie – but SIX!] . So I figure like Ace – down 3 up 6 that gets the old dogfight ace up 9- & nine is OUTside the zargin of error so that’s HUGE!
But there are some folks just dowanna accept the simple facts of math. Take my tall skinny ass nerd patrol type kid for an example of that. Stretch figures since he’s in school & all he knows bettern the ol man & says to me [he calls me Pops]: Pops he says – its like computers and all those websites you go to- you bring garbage into the house all the time don’t be so shocked when you got lots of garbage left over ya have take it all the way out to the county dump. Pops- he says- you kiss your sister everybody knows nothing happened- but do it twice don mean nothin more suz shes still your dam sister .
So Stretch gets to blabbin on about how Mohamabama has a 95% plus lock on all the electoral votes where they have Dem governors- which puts him at like 214 before our old crabby guy gets to 113-
& another fifty where he’s 69 to 94% which gets him to 264 – & I say son listen to your father hes ben around: I say the anti-One is up 29 – TWENTY NINE! – in that 69 to 94 group & there’s 83 undecided so all that means our guy is headed to win by maybe up to 10 & sure 10 is no landslide but itll sure make all those asses just as sore.
So Stretch says the chances of McCain pulling 100% of the “too close to calls” is right up there with the 30 dollar barrel of oil – which is where I think I get him because McCains gonna drill offshore like the last ten thousand graduates from dental school with a note to the bank for $150K & a wife who just got preggers- so if you listen to Fox at all you know all that good stuff is startin to come in a few months maybe even in time for Christmas.
So I show him all the Zogby numbers and his trendlines – he still keeps saying he doesn’t care about popular votes all he wants to listen to me about is how to explain those electoral votes.
My answer is simple- I say Son- You know that Kevin Costner movie? The reason Kevin Costner is a great American is because he know we still in a place called America and if 100 million folks vote Patriot & 100 million other folks vote Traitor & there’s just one vote left and it goes to the Patriot then the Patriot wins end of story. And he shakes his head and says something about “two thousand” and goes off to study. [He’s got himself a free ride thru grad school into phd-dom on account of his marks are so friggin high.].
[Im gonna check that out Dem governors crap. No way we got Dem governors – okay Massa-movements but except for the Red Sox they always suck & maybe even everywhere in New England but by definition that’s like having 100% of nothing]
So the new rule in our house is only Zogby polls.
Oh & I'll go up to 50 over the line it's not Bayh. Even the Dems know THAT guy's just a tool!
Posted by: Diderot's dog at August 20, 2008 04:12 PM (umFRQ)
Yes, he's more liberal than I, and I'd prefer a Republican be your next President, but he's a calm well spoken man who's serious, pro-life, and pro-America. I have no special gift with political prediction so I'm not sure it's a good choice that way. I think he'd make a good President in a pinch.
Obama, on the other hand, is a dangerous megalomaniac narcissist, inexperienced and green, and I think he'd be terrible.
Posted by: Christoph at August 20, 2008 04:19 PM (hawOV)
Posted by: Diderot at August 20, 2008 04:22 PM (pBKvz)
Posted by: nikkolai at August 20, 2008 04:29 PM (bmxMJ)
Posted by: marbles at August 20, 2008 05:36 PM (c3H+i)
Obama's got two problems here- he needs a man who simultaneously brings him an important state and doesn't make him look like an entirely empty suit by comparison.
Which means it can only be Tim Kaine.
Best Regards
Posted by: ATNorth at August 20, 2008 06:53 PM (VAF/F)
It's hard to even bother with their ideas when they're so incompetent at expressing them.
DD....readability. Look into it.
Posted by: Stinky Esposito at August 20, 2008 06:57 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: ATNorth at August 20, 2008 06:58 PM (VAF/F)
August 18 2004 Electoral Vote Count Real Clear Politics:
Kerry 317
Bush 202
Oh my goodness! Kerrys going to win
wah wah waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.....
Posted by: TMF at August 20, 2008 08:14 PM (/YM8H)
Posted by: Chas at August 21, 2008 08:25 AM (tf4qU)
Posted by: イ mtcmtmail= at January 15, 2009 11:54 PM (HMhC8)
Posted by: Advertising signs at January 14, 2011 04:14 AM (h9sGl)
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