1 r3V0Lution!

2

Operation Chaos-Ku

_{"Let us Pause" said Rush}

_{Operation Chaos rests.}

_{just like Cthulu}

_-

3

I disagree that Obama is the tougher candidate.

Obama would get rolled by McCain.  There's absolutely no way he can make this stuff go away going into the general, and he, his wife, and various grievance groups will just keep talking and alienating average (bitter) people.

I think the leftist base would mostly rally around Hillary if she's nominated.  Oh, sure, there'd be a lot of gnashing of teeth, but just like those who are gonna bite the shit sandwich for McCain on the right, the left has nowhere else to go.  Plus, after 8 years of Bushitler rule, another R in the White House would just be intolerable to them.

The key demographic to me, for this particular election, is moderate women.  This is a needed demographic for a Dem to capture the White House.  Obama won't get it, while Hillary most likely will.

 

4 So what you're saying is that Ron Paulites should be campaigning for Hillary instead....

5 No way, Hermit. You're right until you talk about the lefty base and Hillary. The regulars? Sure. But the black vote will not get out for Hilary if they think she stole it from a black man. If the black vote stays home in droves the Dems will lose all the purple states with big urban black populations.

At this point though they're both dead ducks. They're only hope is a joint ticket.

6 I disagree with the analysis that Obama is the tougher candidate of the two Senators. I think they're both equally weak. I agree with runninrebel's analysis at this point, things could change but Senator McCain has an easy job right now. However, the GOP would win by a larger margin at this point if Senator Clinton was the nominee.

7

Were Hillary somehow to manage to prevail, the Democrat Party would be so wracked and riotous that even Ron Paul could beat them.

I know most of the morons here dont care who wins anyway, being McCain haters n'all, but I think this reasoning is overrated and flat out wrong

This election will be as close as '04 if not closer. The Dems have multiple advantages baked in the cake: tanking economy, skyrocketing gas costs, 8 year GOP tenure in the WH, Bush ratings in the can, very unpopular war and a heavily tarnished party name brand for a variety of reasons

That and the Dems are hugely motivated and have the cash advantage

This race, yet again, will be won in the EV map, and that map has favored the Dems for months. Check Rasmussen. Hillary! the "beatable" candidate- the one Rush sooooo badly "wants" to get the nomination- is crushing, CRUSHING McCain in Ohio, Iowa, and PA.

Without at least 2 of those, McCain cannot, and WILL not, win.

Unless your just saying this for comedy sake, in which case, jest on my friend, jest on. The joke will be on us when that changeling pseudo marxist takes the fucking oath

8

We're gonna have to agree to disagree on that one rr ... I think the portion of the black base that stays home for Hillary is going to be counterbalanced by the portion of the conservative base that stays home for McCain.  Meanwhile, Obama is a 'get out the vote drive' for McCain ... almost everyone will bite the shit sandwich (me included) in that case.

In any event, I think predictions of huge portions of the black base abandoning the Dems in the event of a Hillary candidacy are incorrect.  She's got plenty of her own black preachers (that Harlem dude for one) to plead her case during the period before the general.

I do agree that Hillary is still an underdog to McCain, but my opinion is that she'd put up much more of a fight in the general than Obama.

9 TMF,

Dude, if the HOLY SON OF GOD HIMSELF is denied the nomination, a solid 1/6th of the Democrats stay home.

And/or riot.

Either way they don't vote.

10

In any event, I think predictions of huge portions of the black base abandoning the Dems in the event of a Hillary candidacy are incorrect

Byron Scott reported on this anecdotally- he said he interviewed multiple black voters in PA, all of whom said they'd gladly vote for Hillary if Obama lost the primary- they have strong party ID

The white rural voters, however, said the opposite (if Obama won, they would either sit out or vote McCain)

Anecdotal, but I suspect pretty valid

11 ANd more importantly, the white blue collar/union voters too

12 Well, it depends on how it happens and how Obama takes it. If he has the votes, delegates, and he fights it, there will cars burning in the streets. If he's a part of the deal somehow and goes along then it probably won't be that big of a deal.

13

This race, yet again, will be won in the EV map, and that map has favored the Dems for months. Check Rasmussen. Hillary! the "beatable" candidate- the one Rush sooooo badly "wants" to get the nomination- is crushing, CRUSHING McCain in Ohio, Iowa, and PA.

Without at least 2 of those, McCain cannot, and WILL not, win.

TMF's right. It's time to start thinking about those 270. Obama's more likely than Clinton to lose both Iowa and Ohio to McCain. Pennsylvania could be up for grabs. And there won't be any need to worry about Florida this time. Game over.

14

On the plus side, if you think about it, no one, not Obama, not McCain, NO ONE has yet layed the tiniest of fingers on Ms. Crybaby one Day and Ms. Bad Ass "Fighter Gal" the next

No one has touched her dirty fucking laundry yet (Cum dress, travelgate, Hsu, cattle futures, missing FBI files, temper tantrums, etc.), and I suspect that once the conservative 527s go after her Annoyingness full throttle, that'll cost her a good 9 points.

Just reminding people of the creepiness of the Clinton machine alone will bring her down from her pantsuit fake accent glory

15

One point that TMF makes that most haven't been addressing is the enconomy.  When push comes to shove, the 'moderates' vote with their wallets.  Things going good -- status quo.  Things going bad -- party switch.

Now this won't help Obama all that much as he's got too many negatives with the middle, plus he's an obvious commie.  However, this could help Hillary considerably.  The administration will be doing everything they can to prop up the economy going into the election, of course, but they're really swimming uphill at this point.  The best they'll be able to do is to keep markets flat, and try to continue to hide the dire situation at the banks.  Also, the type of stimulus from the tax rebate is front-loaded, which will help the data going into the election.

To sum up, I think the economy won't be a huge swing issue come election-time, but if it is, it would help the Dems.

16

The white rural voters, however, said the opposite (if Obama won, they would either sit out or vote McCain)

Anecdotal, but I suspect pretty valid

Not anecdoal. According to Gallup, more Clinton supporters claim that they would vote for McCain if Obama were chosen than the other way around. 28%-19%. Click over to read it. My major complaint is that they didn't ask who would sit out.

17
"things could change but Senator McCain has an easy job right now"

I don't think so, the war in Iraq is still going to be a huge issue. We may rightfully believe that staying the course is the right thing to do but the majority of Americans don't and it's going to badly hurt McCain. McCain's immigration policies also hurts him badly with the base. Obama or Clinton, McCain is going to have a real struggle to win this.

18 I dunno, TMF; 8 years of Dubya and people are pining for the days of Clinton fatigue.

Yeah, the Clinton administration was full of sleaze and pandering, and the Bush administration pretty much honest (Congress aside). But all Joe Voter is going to remember is that his job was safer in the 90's, the price of food was reasonable and he could drive wherever he wanted.

19

Well, one thing the "economy" shows us now is that if we DIDNT go into Iraq for the fucking oil- we should have

90% of our problems right now are cost of oil related (with the exception of the housing crash...) Food price hikes, consumer confidence, rising unemployment, slowing growth- all of it cost of energy related

Im thinkin a good ole war for fucking OIL would be pretty good right now

And dont tell me about supply and demand- the oil ticks are fucking with us. They could jack up production if they wanted to. They're watching us squirm and they fucking LIKE it

20 Yeah, I don't know. That's usually a built-in handicap with an R incumbent. I don't know if it will make much of a difference if the economy is actually bad as opposed to only portrayed as bad in the press.

21

Yeah, W today challenged the do nothing D congress to get some shit done for the people, to which Schumer (D-Asshole) replied (cue high pitched condescending whine)

"The President is completely out of touch"

Got that?

Challenge the Dems to do something and what do you get? Whining. And more whining.

You get the government you deserve i suppose

 

22 Limbaugh has a point with his stand-down.  If you keep laughing that long without a break, you're gonna hurt yourself...

23

Does Rush read Ace's comments?  I called this last night.  Rush how about a hat tip.

Kemp

24

The impact of the press re the economy:  They can push opinion further along an established path, but they can't outright change opinion when it comes to the economy.  If the economy had actually been bad in 2004, Bush would have lost.  The press could whine all they wanted, but most people were living large and happy with the economy.

In this case, there will likely be real negatives to play up, which can only help the Dems.

25 And don't forget to consider Michigan. If the DNC fails to seat the delegates for the convention, disappointed Dems may lose their enthusiasm, especially Clinton supporters who claim that they're getting disfranchised. Suddenly Michigan is in play again.

26 Nah, the economy is, actually, getting bad. Especially bad - as nishizono recently was rude enough to point out on Protein Wisdom - for working whites and blacks, whom McCain doesn't give a shit about. After all, Central American slaves do the jobs citizens "won't", because citizens demand *gulp* wages. Heavens forfend!

Remember, McCain's not in this to run the country. He's in this to run his mouth.

27 Is that a monkey wrench in my pocket, or am I just glad to see you?

28 Rush,

Buy me a Maserati Quattro.

Thank you.

29

All this depressing shit makes me wanna hear some fucking Hamburger. Neil that is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLYD2Jz2QXw&feature=related

30 ^heh. I had forgotten about that guy.

As for people sitting out, my dead grandfather and William Tecumseh Sherman will certainly vote Dem no matter what.

31

Yeah, the Clinton administration was full of sleaze and pandering, and the Bush administration pretty much honest (Congress aside). But all Joe Voter is going to remember is that his job was safer in the 90's, the price of food was reasonable and he could drive wherever he wanted.

So true. I know several people who are smart, but non-political who pine for the Clinton administration just because all they remember is that the economy was good, gas was cheap, and we weren't at war. Everything else is just details.

32

Wasnt it during the Clinton years that a couple of islamic youtz were learning to fly aeroplanes in Kansas or some such?

Maybe im confusing it w/something else

33 Bill won in '92 with, what, only 43% of the vote?  We all know why.  If she beats Obama, she cannot do better than her husband and no one is taking votes away from McCain this time.  The numbers don't lie.  Assuming everyone stays healthy, McCain will win in November.

34 If Hillary is nominated, there'll be a greater Republican base turnout than if Obama is.  No matter how much they dislike McCain, they truly hate the Red Witch.  There's too much bad blood with the VRWC to overlook.

35 At least once a show, Hugh Hewitt announces that "This is it, Obama's campaign is over!" He gives way too much credit to the dems. Obama could eat a live baby on stage and they would give him a standing O.

36

There are so many varying opinions that I think ace should have a 'prediction thread' ... let people put up their predictions in one place so that those who turn out to be right can gloat and generally act immature in typical moron fashion.

Sample questions:

Who will the Dems nominate?

If Obama is nominated, who wins the general?

If Hillary is nominated who wins the general?

 

There are plenty of other good questions that could be included.

37

I think one of the things to bear in mind here is that Hillary so far appears to have a small popular vote advantage. Operation Chaos appears to be a movement more to deny either candidate momentum.

Under the circumstances (if I'm right), it would make sense to have Obama draw back even so that Clinton doesn't have any sort of momentum. Bear in mind that you can make a pretty strong argument that the superdelegates (in other words, the Democrats in Congress) will make a decision prior to the convention unless there is no momentum for either side. Best thing we can pull for is a true 50-50 split.

tmi3rd

38 All, write it down in a book, and read it here later. Hitlary and BamaMan will team up in an historic agreement between lawyers that will allow the Hil to be the pres for the first 4 years, and the big ol O to do the next 4, and alternate until they both have their years in. With the other to be the VP, of course, in order to strengthen the ticket. And it just might work. And by the way, I would vote against Obama, but would also vote against McVain, so work out that choice. But I would not vote FOR hillary. I think that's where you've got a lot of the base.

39 I'm with the Hillary supporters on this one. The lost black vote will only hurt her in two states that are really "in play" - Ohio and Missouri. The economy is bad enough in Ohio that she can win anyway, and she really doesn't need Missouri. Iowa is as good as gone for the Republicans, no matter which Dem gets nominated. Nevada and Colorado are probably in play, especially since Nevada has been especially hard hit by the housing crunch. We want Obama to win the nomination.

40 This election will be as close as '04 if not closer.

Every election for decades will be that close simply because of the media effect and the polarization of the country. Josef Mengele could run with Pol Pot as the VP and they'd get close to 50% of the vote simply by being a Democrat. However, I predict this will be the lowest turnout in American history, if not one of them.

41 The real question is, is there any way black people will ever vote Republican? I am guessing no. If they believe white people invented AIDS then they will easily believe Obama got "swiftboated" by the evil white republicans. Black people are the real racist I think after all this crap.

42 No way, Ace.  Just no way.  Hillary may have a problem with the black vote initially, but they'll come home.  Look at all the people who said they'd never vote from McCain but are stumping for him now.

Hillary is a much stronger candidate.  Obama is just bad at this game.  He can't go a whole week without something so stupid even his supporters wince.  His instincts are all wrong, e.g. "I can no more disavow Rev. Wright..."  He's a AAA player trying to play in the majors and it shows.  Also, Rev Wright is the gift that keeps on giving.  The more stupid stuff Wright says the harder it is for anyone to believe Obama didn't lap that shit up for two decades.

Hillary is hitting her stride.  The money is coming in now.  She's trained that shrill tone out of her voice.  She listens to her advisers - every tactical move has been flawless in the last few months, and she's got the machine behind her.  We do not want to be against Hillary in the general.

43

The Dem delegation is loaded with White Guilt^tm and a racist identity politic, so they'll put Obama in, just to save their own asses in Denver.

Hillary's body punches took a lot out of BO in the early rounds. McCain's just doing a rope-a-dope now since he's a master at being the dope, and waiting for the later rounds.

Rush is just hauling the cash to the bank in the meantime.

44 My main concern is that Operation Chaos' primary accomplishment will end up being the deletion of "Vice" from the phrase "Vice President Al Gore".

45 Clinton is definitely the stronger candidate.  McCain *has no grassroots*.  He isn't even TRYING for one.  (Ruffini had a piece on this recently.)  So in any 2000/2004-style turnout war, he's gonna lose.  Hillary almost certainly means that sort of scenario; Obama is open to a blowout (and probably will be).

Yeah, the "Hill stole the nomination" scenario is possible, but who's to say Barry doesn't see the handwriting on the wall and withdraw gracefully, setting up for next time, before the superdels officially knock him off?

46

Pbrown, I don't think you need to worry about that. Gore is a pipe dream, and he would carry only the base. People are not ignorant of how psychotic he's sounded ever since losing, and even liberals I know regard him as damaged goods. Bear in mind- the black folks dearly want Obama as their president, and being denied hm would be one step short of handing it to Clinton.

I think Ace's Liver is right- Obama is making a lot of mistakes, and all the spotlight has been upon him. At the same time, Clinton has sat back and cleaned up her act. It does appear that she's got a hope of a comeback now, and it will require her to lose a couple of these upcoming states to seal it- but not too quickly!

Again, it's a delicate balancing act, and one that we want to keep going all the way to the convention, with Obama ultimately prevailing. We can get into whether or not Clinton is positioning herself to run again in 2012 after the fact.

tmi3rd

47 One thing you have to consider in talking about whether blacks will "come home" to Hillary: The attacks on Obama, not just from her, but from what must seem at this point from the White Media as well, have to be turning black voters off. And this is a group that historically doesn't vote its weight. Some number will vote for Hillary, sure, but some number will not vote at all.

If Hillary gets 90 percent of the black vote, but only, say, 40 percent of eligible blacks vote in Ohio, it could turn a close presidential election. If turnout is down in the South and border states, it could have huge implications in congressional races.

I don't think Hillary can get everyone back. Bitter blacks clinging to their slave heritage will not be enthusiastic about putting The Man back in the White House, even if she's wearing a pantsuit.

48 Just going by the local results, we want to face Obama. I'm in Philly, South Philly to be exact, and Hillary crushed Obama in my ward, 82-18. Of course, Obama won the city, but a bit more narrowly than expected. In the rest of the state, Obama only won 3 other counties, if I remember correctly (I'm running on fumes and don't feel like looking up the results). Obama would most likely perform the same in the general, even taking into consideration the Philly Fraud Machine©...sure, some Dems would "come home"....but McCain is hardly a right-wing ideologue, he will probably start throwing Bush under the bus at every opportunity...and Obama just is not liked at all outside of the kool-aid base. McCain will win PA over Obama.

Hillary, on the other hand, now looks good after the Dems here have compared her to Obama.. Sure, many of the city black folks may stay home, but the Fraud Machine will make sure that they vote for Hillary anyway.  I think many more of  the  "bitter"  Dems in the rest of the state will come home to her,  the  VRWC attacks nonwithstanding. She'll probably win PA.

BTW, Operation Chaos was never designed to make sure that Hillary is the Dem nominee.... It's designed merely to ensure a messy Dem convention.  The law of Unintended Consequences may well be in play with Rush's plan.....

49

I still see a steelcage deathmatch at the Dem convention.  I also think that as that time gets closer, the more vicious the attacks of the two Dem candidates will be on each other.  Never underestimate the power of the Clinton Attack Machine. However, Hillary has a few skeletons rattling around in her closet too.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think Denver may regret hosting the Dems.

 

50 Nah, Obama is the stronger candidate. There is a very senior core in the media which back Clinton.  (The were the rising starts in the 90's, and now have lots of power)   We are seeing negative coverage of Obama which will completely disappear the moment Hillary concedes.

At that point, his personal charisma (yes he has it) and his relative lack of baggage will put him in prime position.

I think that Rush is playing a game.  He sees that Hillary is almost out of time, so he plays the "We Republicans are afraid of her!" gambit.  It's a last minute push to keep the dems fighting.

51 We are probably going to see a Obama-Clinton ticket for the national election. Because the DEM vote and their identity groups are totally divided between those two. So they cannot even hope of getting the presidency alone.

Obama gets the youth and black vote, but Hillary gets the whites and older votes. So single candidate can win on their own aganist McCain. Question is who is going to play second fiddle?


We are looking at a total clusterfrak no matter what happens.

52 8 years of Dubya and people are pining for the days of Clinton fatigue.

After 4 years of McVain, Hilldog, or the Obamassiah, George W. Bush will look like Reagan.

53

There's been a GOP pow-wow

to recess while the smoke signals are translated.

Rush pauses to catch his breath the night before

Jonathan Martin writes that the GOP is giving Hillary the cold shoulder.

Circle the wagons.

54

8 years of Dubya and people are pining for the days of Clinton fatigue.

Yeah, everyone was a millionare, unemployment was  1% and people were able to fly their jets anywhere they wanted (no pun intended).  I think Iraq also was in better shape with all that kite flying and such.

55 Hillary! the "beatable" candidate- the one Rush sooooo badly "wants" to get the nomination....

The goal of Operation Chaos is not to get Her Thighness the nomination.  It's to keep the Democrats at each other's throats as long as possible, ideally at least through their convention.

I think the Republicans are toast anyway, so I'll take whatever small victories I can for the foreseeable future.  Too many people are too eager to bury their heads in the September 10th sands.  Ironically, it's only because Bush has been so effective in protecting the country that these boobs are free to indulge in such foggy-eyed denial of the threats we're facing, threats that Barak Obama is clearly not up to handling.

56 Except that Hill can win Ohio and Obama likely can't.  We're going to regret this root for Hill stuff.

57

Just think of the debates between McCain and Obama!, that's where Obama! will lose.

On the one hand, you have the elder statesman/war hero who's the "Maverick" that everybody knows, KNOWS, is not your typical Republican no matter how much the now fully discredited NYTimesWashPostCNNABCCBSNBCetc. try to say differently. They can't spend the last 8 years using him to stick a finger in Bush's eye and now try to say he's Bush III. The only people who trust the media these days are going to vote Dem no matter what.

On the other hand, you have Obama! who's plan for Iraq is to not have gone into Iraq in the first place, who has no solutions or plans for anything. Only Hope and Change and (to quote FrnakJ) who likes finger painting and nap time.

McCain in a landslide. Especially as anybody for whom the War on (Some) Terror is THE issue won't be able to stay home. McCain might hate conservatives, but he'll fight the war.

Hillary will also probably fight the war. And if she gets into some legal problems, like her husband, she'll start bombing people we don't like, just like her husband, so plenty of conservatives will probably stay home.

If hating Hillary were good enough for her to lose an election, we would be looking at the John Effin Kerry re-election campaign and this election would be far less entertaining.

58

Rush sounds like he's getting jittery.  This is not time for hesitation. 

This is "Operation Chaos", not "Operation oh no I'm having second thoughts what if Hillary wins and becomes president and Obama was really weaker all along and whatifwe'remakingamistake and I'mscaredandIwannagohome!!!"

Pull yourself together Rush!!!  And the rest of you maggots too!

59

This is "Operation Chaos", not "Operation oh no I'm having second thoughts what if Hillary wins and becomes president and Obama was really weaker all along and whatifwe'remakingamistake and I'mscaredandIwannagohome!!!"

That's not Rush's mindset at all on the strategic pause.  It's not borne out of any fear of Hillary.  It's just that, if Hillary's now on the rise, it might make strategic sense to switch the phony boosterism to Obama for awhile.  Remember, the goal is a Democrat Party in chaos, not securing the nomination for either Hillary or Obama.

60

That's not Rush's mindset at all on the strategic pause.

I know, I was being a bit facetious.  And though I pointed my remarks at Rush, they might be better directed at some of the commenters who are frightened by Hillary's apparent strength.

However, I do think Rush is overestimating the impact Wright will have on the primary.   While it may be enough to hurt Obama in the general, he is too far ahead to be fatally hurt by it in the primary.  This means that it is in our interest to continue to help Hillary as much as possible.  It may very well be that the superdelegates give serious thought to throwing their support to Hillary.  But in the end, they know they can't, unless they want real Chaos in their party. 

Hillary looks good right now because no one is directing any serious fire at her -- Obama isn't because, as Saddam Hussein would say, he's the kind of guy who, if someone didn't like him, would take him for a walk in the park and ask him why.  Republicans aren't because it is not in our interest right now. Hillary is on the rise, but she is still low enough that its in our interest to help her rise faster.

 

 

61

Also, can I just say how much I'm enjoying Operation Chaos?  I literally can't help but giggle every time Rush references it. I know he's just windbagging a bit and having fun (especially when he urges Obama to publicly acknowledge Operation Chaos in order to defeat it), but it's really infectious.

We are so lucky to have Rush Limbaugh.

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