1 Allahpundit is hyperventilating something fierce over at HotAir. Do hope they boy makes it.

2 Astonishing.  Man, I'm hoping that SP really is all that and a bag of chips.  She has set this election afire.

3 So essentially, between Obama's speech and the end of this past week, the polls have swung 11 points in favor of McCain...

At a time when the Dems are winning the generic congressional polls by 10 points (this guy shouldn't be just beating us, he should be crushing us).

I love this.

(knock on wood.)

4 Geesh, McCain even stole Obama's fake mantras of change and post-partisanship. That was all he had. What's he supposed to do now?

This is turning into a mugging.

5 Remember, it doesn't count until we lead by as many points as McCain has houses.

6 Here's a partial list of what McCain can throw at Barry. (Remember, now the vast public is paying attention.) Ayers Rezco "Present" "Typical White Person" "Citizen of the World"

7 #6

There's also "My Muslim Faith"

(not that McCain would, or should)

8 There is a real chance the congressional races will being to tighten as well if the Dems continue to push Biden and Obama.  It is possble, though unlikely, that they will soon reach the point where they need to concede the top spot and protect their congressional gains.  Won't that be fun to watch.

9 Ayers, Rezko, etc.

Yes, McCain hasn't even started on the REAL dirt, and Barry is already whining like a little girl. The debates are going to be humiliating for O!

10 I apologize, but a different topic:

Why is every commercial shown to my kids during NFL games about the flaccid cocks of Boomers?  It's starting to piss me off.

11 It's great to see him pull ahead in the polls but I'm more concerned about the electorate map... thats were it'll be decided.

12

I would pound that McCain "temple" ad where BO is just a voting stooge of Reid and Pelosi- it demolishes this "change" garbage and saws off a stool leg.

This clown is ripe for the taking and McCain team (Steve Schmidt you magnificent bastard II) knows it.

13

Great news.  McCain is a seasoned campaigner and I have faith that he will seal the deal by hitting the right themes.

OTOH, Obama is a rookie, in over his head and held up by the media.  He has no game when he's not reading something written for him.

The debates will be fun to watch.

14 He's going to pull ahead there too.  My guess is the Dems are going to lose a couple of rust belt states they have no business losing.  But hey if Barry keeps going in this direction the Dems are going to lose all over the map...

15 The state polls are a lagging indicator.  They'll follow the trend if there's a big swing to McCain.

16 On the RCP no-leaners electoral map, all it takes is for Colorado to swing (Obama +.4) and McCain is in the black.  Think a western governor might help him there?

17

OT: Even Dowd Gets It

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/opinion/07dowd.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Dowd flashes forward to the 2012 debates.  Her column soon degrades into her typical demented hyperbole, but it's based on the premise that Sarah Connor Palin has cleaned Barry's clock.

"Now, alas, we’ll have to wait until 2012 when the two fiercest competitors on the trail will no doubt face off in the presidential debate, with Palin still riding high from her 2008 field-dressing of Obama (who’s now back in the Senate convening his subcommittee on Afghanistan)."

That smells like victory.

18 Heh, and last CO poll 8/24

19

"Despite a week of Palin bashing..."

I belive it is, in part, the reason for the positive poll numbers.

What's happening is akin to some punk showing up at a local PTA meeting and slapping one of the moms and demanding she hand over her fresh-baked tollhouse cookies: The little punk is going to get a good old-fashioned ass whupping.

There's, what, 60 or so days before the election? You can bet that somewhere along the line we'll be reading stories of how Palin, who presumably cooks wholesome moose meals for her children, was seen to walk out of a public bathroom without washing her hands.

I hope the nutroots keep it up. The only possible result will be to piss off damned near every decent person in this country and provide a real sense of what the "One" is fully (and actually) capable of.

It's just as wth Palin continuously reintroducing herself to the public. Many in this country have yet to hear her speak. Remember, most of the rumors and most of the research which has so thoroughly impaled the authors of said rumors, have never made it into the light of day where the common folk (non-blogger voting public) reside.

How often do you find yourself explaining to your neighbors or co-workers the latest political development and then shaking your heads as to how in the hell could they never heard of the particular issue? With me, all too often.

Let's hope they keep up their evil-doing deeds for a little while longer.

 

20 HuffPo, DKos, MyDD, DU meltdown in 3...2...1...

21

My hypothesis is that Camp Obama sees this election as the opposite of 1980.  They think that the political environment is so bad for the party in power that all they have to do is show voters their candidate is not scary and he will break away after the debates and never look back.  Risky, but it explains their counter-productive, defensive strategy since late June.

We should not assume that it's too late for Obama to win by coming to his senses and hitting the economy every day (as he should have been doing for months).  If I was advising McCain, my daily message would be that Obama says he wants to cut taxes for the middle-class, but voted to raise them in February -- BO as dishonest tax-raiser.  Also, that Obama's position on trade raises prices for consumers, including on fuel (by opposing sugar-based ethanol from Brazil).  Obama = higher taxes, higher prices.

McCain might also consider hanging a lantern on one of his own problems and turning it to his advantage.  He might consider joking that some of his opponents think he's too old for the job, when what they mean is that he's old enough to remember when Jimmy Carter drove the US economy into a ditch with the ideas Obama embraces.

22 DKos:  "I'm Totally Discouraged..."

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=28222

23 Allahpundit is hyperventilating something fierce over at HotAir. Do hope they boy makes it.

Yeah, he wrote that it was outside of the margin of error, but that is incorrect.

The MoE is 2%. That means the true value for McCain support is somewhere between 46 and 50 percent. Similarly, the true value for Obama support is between 43 and 47 percent.

In other words, there is some overlap.

24 And so were the last MI & PA polls.Though I asuspect Acorn will do there usual bang up job organizing the communties to keep them blue.

25

Well, Karl, might something like this work?

"When it comes to taxes, I won't be asking anyone to 'read my lips', instead, I'll simply ask of you, my friends, to read my opponents lips instead."

26

Yeah, I lurve AP, but polling stories are not his strong suit.

PS: Camp McCain ought to have the video of Obama talking about how he likes high gas prices running on a continual loop.

27 Rasmussen has them tied. 

It's an encouraging trend, and so long as McCain continues to do his Mexican Hat Dance in the middle of Obama's strategy circle, I think November will be a blow-out.

28 True Dat, Gabriel.  People always screw up the margin of error.

Gabriel has an approval rating on his posts of 48%, with a 5 point margin of error.
Herr Morgenholz has an approval rating of 38% on his smartass comments, also with a 5% margin of error.  Gabriel does NOT have a 10 point lead.  It's within the margin, albeit barely, as we could easily be tied at 43%.

Ask John Kerry.

29

 jmflynny,

I wouldn't go there, as the lip-reading will remind some of GHWBush.  Just bluntly state: "Barack Obama claims he wants to cut your taxes.  He voted to raise them this year.  There's a big difference between talking and doing."

30 Republicans, for all their faults, rarely take money directly out of your pocket.  McCain should remind people of that.

31 Also, I would be surprised verging on shocked if this was a blowout.  Since WWII, we have had one of these "change" cycles about every 16 years -- 1960, 1976, 1992 and 2008.  They tend to be squeakers for the Dems of one sort or another.  Plus 2000 and 2004 were both close, and the voting population has not changed dramatically, while the general political environment has swung against the GOP.  If McCain pulls it out, he will be making history.

32 Oh, that's right, Karl, I'd forgotten about that little non-spat. Heh.

33 BTW, Karl, in the URL box to enter your information, include "http://" before "www.claudepate.com" and it will appear correctly in posts.

34

Gabe,

Thanks for the tip, though I include the URL out of habit. It's a pretty apolitical site, but for folks who like music, gossip and animal stories, there it is.

35 10 I apologize, but a different topic: Why is every commercial shown to my kids during NFL games about the flaccid cocks of Boomers? It's starting to piss me off. Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at September 07, 2008 01:49 PM (sncuK) Only two kinds of people watch the NFL- binge drinkers and guys who can't get it up without a trip to the pharmacy. Duh.

36 Ok, I feel a little better than I felt on Friday.  I am, however somewhat concerned that the post-Convention Palin stump speech I heard was the same speech as the Convention speech.  OK, I do feel better.

Are there any non-Liberals in NYC?  I would love to hear from you:
AskParisParamus@gmail.com

37 I am, however somewhat concerned that the post-Convention Palin stump speech I heard was the same speech as the Convention speech.

floofy, that's how stump speeches work. They're supposed to be basically the same, maybe with a little tuning aimed at the specific area where they take place.

38

Potosi, I'm watching the Jags-Titans game right now and tryng to figure out which category I fall into: binge drinkers or guys who can't get it up.

Really, it's a tough choice.

39

FloofyParisParamus,

There's a reason why a stump speech is a stump speech.  Ace has voiced the same concern, but we always need to keep in mind that while tens of millions saw the convention, hundreds of millions did not.  They'll start changing some things up as we go, but never fast enough for political junkies.

40 binge drinkers or guys who can't get it up.

It could be both, unless the Cowboys are playing

41 Oh snap.

And while you're at it... suck it.

42 When the Cowboys lose, both for me.

43 I wouldn't underestimate the effect of the actual people involved.  BO is a really, really bad candidate.  He's got a lot of skeletons in his closet that haven't been aired by the media.  Now that the race is heating up they can't just ignore his past and feed us hopey changey.

Right now McCain has the initiative, and he's nothing if not a seasoned politician.  Unless Obama can come up with a slick judo move on the order of the Palin pick he could be in real trouble.

Biden will be no help.  If they let him talk he'll just say something embarrassing.

44 So when does Biden engage the ejection seat and employ the modified "Eagleton Scenario" to recruit a new leading man?

45 I want to see McCain start getting into the low 50's before I start to think there's been a fundamental and lasting shift to this race.  No doubt Palin has shaken things up, but they could very easily settle back down again once her novelty wears off.  Of course, I fully expect McCain to win all three debates, and for Palin to at least pull off a draw due to lowered expectations for her, so barring the unexpected, this isn't a bad place to be at this stage of the race.

46

The MoE is 2%. That means the true value for McCain support is somewhere between 46 and 50 percent. Similarly, the true value for Obama support is between 43 and 47 percent.

Well, if you're goint to be a stickler about exact numbers, remember this is a poll. The MoE on the MoE is 15%.

MoE = 2%, +/- 15%.

47

I'm sick of our bias media.  The comment that the media will pick the next president really burns me. 

No.  They will not.

If the media wants to stand in our way this election.  We don't need to go threw them.  We can always go around them.  We still have freedom of speach .

Educate yourself.  Call. Write. Email. & Blog daily to others.

Nothing is inevitable!

 

Kim American

 

48 An Obamabot at my site said, "This is like a bad dream!"

Heh.

49 Also remember there is usually a built in leftward tilt to most polling. When you add in things like the "Bradley Affect" I think it will be remembered as the "Palin Affect", or how a truly audacious and bold pick for VP can change the shape of the presidential election. I think we're just beginning to see a more of earth moving type of political drift rather than a post convention bump.

50 I like this partcular defnition of what the leftist MSM is doing to itself and their candidate: autoerotic asphyxiation.

51 JimK,

I believe it's "Bradley Effect," and the corresponding coinage for the woman-types would be "Palin Effect;" that is, there is an effect of propping 0bama up, not that the polls have an affectation that resembles someone called Bradley (though the polls were a little foppish there for a while).

52 Hmmm, link to Vman not working...try this one.

53 Damnit! Never mind!

54 Can you imagine the private fuming and cussing going on between Obastard and his harpy with a wedding ring? "Goddamn it, Barack, I told that reporter at the New Yorker that America was a mean country, but I had to go to Denver and lie about it. And what did it buy me? I mean, us? I mean, our people? I mean, America? The shitty little white ingrates. They should be so lucky to have us as their rulers. Representatives, I meant. Now listen, Mr. Hopeychange, if you can't stop stuttering with the ums and ahs unless I'm there with my hand up your backside to make you talk, you can just forget about ever, ever getting to ride up front with me on Air Force O again. It's back by the tail, with the catering crew. Got it, little mister? Now go do your stupid "can't we all get along" Jedi mind trick with these fucking Americans and make it stick this time. I've got White House party plans to make."

55 Despite a week of Palin-bashing...

or thanks to it?

56 This poll might actually mean something.
McCain has broken out of his 42-46% range. He has been within that range in what amounts to "nothing happening here" for 4-5 weeks.
Meanwhile, Obama has been 44-48% for the same weeks preceding. Therefore, what we can safely say is that Obama has not moved substantially over the last 4-5 weeks. At all. IOW, there was no convention bounce for Obama. At. Fucking. All. Obama broke out of his range for a total of only 6 days.

It remains to be seen whether there has been any convention bounce for McCain. If he can stay above 46%, then the game has shifted. So far he has only one day outside his range from the previous 4-5 weeks.

And one note of correction (for me, quite likely):
If the MoE is 2% and one party is four points above the other (say, 48-44) that does not signify a poll within the MoE. MoE usually means a 95% confidence interval. Therefore, for both numbers to be the same, each would only have a 5% chance. Therefore, the odds that the numbers are the same would be (.05)(.05) = .0025.
In order to test the null hypothesis that both were in fact 46%, one would not perform a z-test. And since I'm not pulling my stats book off the shelf, I'll just say it's not within the MoE at 48-44 with a MoE of 2%.

Can somebody correct me on this if I'm wrong?

57 Ignoring my stats classes and going by a "durrr, i's a gernuleest" mentality: I'd say they're saying a 2% margin of error means "the distance between them, reported as 4%, could be as little as 2% (4%-MoE)".

But then, spending this much effort on interpreting results that didn't have as much effort in creating them is a good way to get an ulcer, or at least bed sores.

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