Let's hope the Fed takes this as a sign that it's time to stop deflating the dollar and hold pat on those interest rates, or even tick them up a tiny little notch.  Shoring up the dollar will help keep the commodity bubble in check, and show a little confidence in the economy.  Watch for the Dow and S&P to trip their technical highs today.  If the market digests the Fed's commentary well and they both finish above 12,850ish and 1405 respectively; that would be doubleplus nice.

Plus, a pause in the interest rates and some words to the effect that we're bringing Volcker back would encourage the home-buyers on the sidelines to jump in.

However at this point, most analysts being forward-looking, it's all conjecture.  Some people see doom and gloom and a postapocalyptic Mad Max scenario, others see your typical slowdown.

The economy is growing simply because the investors have allready caught wind of my whale farming plans.

It's gonna be huge!

Economies are contracting in places that were overly reliant on construction jobs (eg. Vegas).  Other places with more diversified economies are doing fine.  This isn't so much a slowdown as it is a deflation of paper wealth (overvalued real estate).  The general impact on the economy comes from follow-on effects in consumer spending.

As for home buyers 'sitting on the sidelines' ... that's mostly a myth.  Almost everyone who could afford a house, and plenty who couldn't, already bought one.  Those that are getting foreclosed on won't be buying again any time soon.  House prices are still too high in most areas, relative to traditional valuations.  Either average wages need to come up or house prices need to come down.  The debt/income ratio of the general public needs to come down as well.

ACE --

Rush is quoting yer blog right now on his show. 

And he first gave ya credit, too. 

!

Get it, saishutu! 

How's that fer a simultaneous post?

Aiight!

!

I smell a moving of the goalposts by the Medicrats.

I do wonder how this will impact the hobo demographic.

At the risk of being painfully obvious, if the President had a (D) after his name, the goofballs in the media would be trumpetting how steadfast and unswervable the economy is.

Since he has an (R) after his name, it's the end of the world even if it isn't a recession.

Posted by: lauraw at April 30, 2008 12:20 PM (rXNLw)

Ah, what the Hell...BUNK!

As is Keynesian fiat currency

This alone makes a serious response to your post pointless.  Ron Paul! Wheeee!

a half trillion dollars in global credit industry writedowns in a year.

You say that like its a bad thing.  No use in stretching out the pain of money you will never recoup.  The failure to writedown, what are obviously losses, is what has held the Japanese back for two decades.

Then again, I want these so badly that I would club a baby seal.

How do you feel about clubbing baby whales?

Of course the "economist" on Abcnews radio was like:

"Well technically its not a recession, so we should redefine what a recession is (high gas and food prices) so we can call this economy a recessionary economy and blame Bushitler."

And not, technically, a recession.

I just love that formulation, Ace; it's application is seemingly infinite, for example:

George W. Bush--not, technically, a retard.

The Iraq War--not, technically, a clusterfuck.

The Conservative Movement--not, technically, dead.

Ace of Spades--not, technically, unfamiliar with female bodily juices.

Of course, for all practical purposes...

You forgot:

Beloved Weaver -- not, technically, a troll

That's some weakassed troll shit there.  Apparently the MS,M and the beclowned weeper, take their cue from ol' Humpty

When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’

‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’

‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master – that’s all.’

The last part may be a clue.

You know, BW, when everyone agrees on the definition of a thing, then it means what it means. We aren't cheerleading that the economy is doing great. Most of us here are pissed that our political opponents and the MSM are painting this as the Great Depression when it hasn't even reached the point of negative growth. Not for even ONE quarter.

But since you say so, I guess we should just change the definition of recession to suite your model, which seems to be "There's a Republican in the White House".

I'd love to see some  dollar defense. Nothing will lower the cost of gas faster. Having said that, I think if the MSM keeps preaching economic doom, it may become a self fulfilling prophecy if consumer spending/confidence keeps tanking.

 XBradTC at April 30, 2008 02:18 PM

dollar needs to go up.  bush should be ashamed of letting the dollar slid the way he has. 

toby928 with a straight right hook on the button.  BW that had to hurt. 

I'll bet this means Bush won't be re-elected.

Ten, you make some fair points, but it's clear you've never read this blog.  Noone here is going to try to argue that bush is a fiscal conservative.  Everyone knows that he's a huge spender and people on this blog are sick of it and 'compassionate conservatism'.  It seems like you're trying to pick a fight with people who largely agree with you.

Good thing oil, food, commodities, and yes, that most Paulian unit of value ever devised, gold, will all plummet back down...as the US money supply and credit increase. 

Weird, gold's been dropping since mid March.

We'll simply spend ourselves rich again

Ten at April 30, 2008

you can deal with debt with two actions  you can reduce your outflow or you can increase your inflow.  The best way is to do both at the same time.  If the government would decrease spending while increasing economic activity thus tax revenues and taking the excess and paying on that debt then rolling over the interest savings from that paid down debt.  the 9 trillion could be erased in sort order.  If you have a 3.1 trillion dollar income you can sustain a 9 trillion dollar debt.  to put it in precpective.  It would be like having a $90000 home loan making $31000 per year.   you can make the payments but it causes you to not be able to do somethings.   Debt if used correctly is a good thing.  it allows you to increase capital, have addtional freedom to do things you would not be able to otherwise etc.   Now if you have debt for eating out that's bad debt.

The economy under Bush- technically, about 30 quarters of solid economic growth with millions of net job gains

The war on terror under Bush- technically, a stunning success due to approximately ZERO terrorist attacks in the US since 9-11, nearly 8 years ago

Beloved Weavers love of COCK- not technically gay, but pretty damn close

Weird, gold's been dropping since mid March.

toby928 at April 30, 2008 03:05 PM (

not weird at all.  gold dropped when the FEd saved Bear Streans and showed to the world that the government would not allow the USA economy to go in the ditch.  since the market crash was no longer an option gold has lost alot of its luster.    The action on the price of gold should tell everyone that had doubts about the Fed's actions in March IRT Bear Streans that they actually did the right thing.

Whatever.  Ace's post made a simple point.  The economy has weakened, but we're not technically in recession -- plus the usual (and well-deserved) MSM bashing.

I suppose I could write some huge treatise on where I think we're headed over the next couple years, but if I wanted to do that, I'd have my own blog.  Which would take far too much time from my guzzling of Val-u-Rite and making snarky posts here.

I know that the MSM is in full recesession-gen mode.  But what I want to know is who is financing all the short-selling of America that is going on, and who knows what about that and for how long have they known it, Democrat candidates and congressional leaders.

When historians look back on this era, the Iraq war is going to be a contextual footnote to the story of how some very wealthy and very politically powerful people tried to derail the world economy for their political convenience, costing billions of dollars to the those unlucky ones who were entrepreneurs and investors at the same time as them, and starving how many will perhaps never be known.

Of course, like in the case of Walter Duranty, the New York Times and other organs of the media will be found to have been fully complicit.  But hopefully this time somebody will destroy them for it.

Denier.

And there you have it, really. The PaulBot as psychoanalyst/inquisitor.

Which March?

Last March.  Look at your own chart.  Are you visually impaired?