1 I just hope those troops have air cover. Ivan isn't above shooting down "unidentified" transport aircraft.

2 Ah, strategery: better late than never.

3 Hopefully Russia backs off. I hate to imagine the outcome if they continue to press forward and engage our troops

4 What? You mean the Lightworker can't just talk an end to all this?

5 The "Democracy Now" crowd have been pushing this story today about how the Russians have introduced two SS-21 medium-range ballistic missile launchers into South Ossetia.

6 Good. If the Georgians lose South Ossetia and Abkhazia that will suck for them and us but if the Russians force Saakashvili out it would be a total disaster.

It still sucks but limiting the damage maybe the best we can do here. In the meantime, we rebuild the Georgian military will even more and better stuff, add Ukraine to NATO ASAP and do whatever it takes to convince the eastern Europeans we won't let this happen again.

7

Hey, look at all the Dems.  Not. saying. anything.

Well, of course they are making all sorts of statements.  All sorts.  Some pro-Georgian.  Some anti-Bush.  Some hawkish.  Some doveish.

As soon as things get sorted out, we'll get to hear the correct ones .  It's nice to have the MSM in your pocket.

8 Liberals always emphasized the "mere tripwire" belief because it conveyed that America (Republicans in particular) wouldn't care about our military force being totally destroyed.

9

This is the sort of situation where some miscommunication can have dire consquences.

10

Clearly the Russians waited until the Magical Negro went on vacation to avoid his displeasure.

This has to help McRhino.  Puts "The One" in a bind with the nut roots, he support Bush and loses the Nuts or he doesn't and loses the rest of the world.  He's Fucked here.

God Bless you Karl, how do you control Putain?  The Tin Hats???

11 Where is Virginia governor what's-his-name?  I thought he said Obama had put an end to this?

12

But I'll be damned if I can come up with a reasonable solution that doesn't have us in a shooting war with Russia by noon the next day.

How about an immediate and fast track of Georgia into NATO followed by a deployment of about 40,000 NATO troops in peace keeping configuration.  Kicking the crap out of Georgia is one thing.  Let's see if Putin wants to take on NATO.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 11, 2008 03:45 PM (VBon

I'll take my Nobel Peace Prize now.

13 Russia is jealous that China is usurping it's title as Global baddy #1. Ivan is ust trying to establish some street cred.

14 Ace, I like the Red. Nice throwback to the cold war days.

15 Well, somebody got a bee in his bonnet.

16 Where is the last US commander to face down the Russians and get relieved for risking WWIII, Wesley Clark ?

Clark tried to save Pristina Airport from the Russians.

17

I'll take my Nobel Peace Prize now.

Carter, Arafat, Gore, JackStraw.

One of these things is not like the other.

18 Hey wait a minute ... arguing back at Condi ...isn't that a bit, oh I don't know ... RACIST!

19

>>but I think you can see what she's saying.

 

you can bet your ass that the Russians understand what she's saying....

20 Hmmn. I think I'll run to the store to pick up some D-cells for the geiger counter, survey meter, & dosemeter charger...

21

Tell me, is there anyone in the liberal MSM who's as in-your-face with his liberal talking points than Shepard Smith? Maybe David Shuster and a few other.

No. And doesn't the AoSHQ Style Guide recommend using his full name -David "Sucker of Cock" Shuster?

22

Carter, Arafat, Gore, JackStraw.

One of these things is not like the other.

One might possibly have a functioning brain?

23 My only question is, where is "moose and squirrel".

24 This business will get out of control.  It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.

25  If talk like this was necessary... man, keep it private.

You go public if you anticipate having to justify something to your constituents in the near future. This way you're on record and don't have to face the accusation that you are fabricating a post hoc version of events.

The problem here is that we can't tell if the justification is going to be for doing nothing for the first five days of the war or for getting us entangled in a shootout with Russia.

26 Ah. Meet our new Russian masters, the same as our old Russian masters.

27

I'll take my Nobel Peace Prize now.

Carter, Arafat, Gore, JackStraw.

One of these things is not like the other.

Arafat isn't a moron. Evil, yes. Moron, no.

28 If talk like this was necessary... man, keep it private. She just fucking called Vladimir Putin out.

No, she had to talk like that. She was talking to the rest of the world just as much as to the Russians.

29 Here the thing about liberals. They love to defend thugs and tyrants. This is how Hitler made his move in Europe. Putin is a thug a tyrant and the only language they know is force.

30 Why don't you just launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes? Limited to Russian offensive weapons and industrial capacity?

31 Kidding.

32

Poot-poot needs a way out.  We'll give it to him via Condi visit, and he'll take it.  He has already lost... the world just doesn't know it yet because the MSM has to protect Obama from the reality that Bush just called bullshit, and Putin blinked.

My $0.02 and worth every penny.

33 >>>No, she had to talk like that. She was talking to the rest of the world just as much as to the Russians.

what do you mean?

If she's making some sort of general statement that the US will (say) go to war for the Ukraine... well, okay, but if we're going to do that, why are we hinting about it rather than stating it?  And if we're not going to do that, why are we hinting that?

I don't know... I understand strategic ambiguity but I also understand "writing checks you can't cash."  And I know the Korean war started partly due to a stupid map which did *not* include Korea in the US sphere of protection, inviting the invasion.

34

Fuck them.

Get the sand out of the vag man. If they can beat shoes on tables, their sensibilities are over rated. I love me some candid talk in place of 'diplomacy'.

My impression of Condi Rice just shot up 39,283.8%

35 The Russian military has performed poorly, whereas Russian military planners know American Forces performed brilliantly in the major combat operations of the first Gulf War and even better in the invasion of Iraq.

Russia has lost combat aircraft to Georgia. Russian bombs are going off target. American bombs don't as often.

These facts should be causing Putin to do some calculations.

36 Condi has a vibrator that's shaped just like Ronald Reagan. Thatcher actually had the first prototype of that.

37 Some of you seem over excited.I do believe Rice has some experience with the Russians.

38 Roy, that's disgusting. Thatcher in particular is a decent married woman. I know you're being funny, but you're not.

39

Sounds like Condi had her black leather spiked-heeled boots on for this presser.

 

These boots are made for walkin...

40 Since this probably helps McCain, I guess I'll be the first:

Rove, you magnificent bastard!

41 The Russians have had major sand in their vaginas since Iraq. Both they and their weaponry have been shown time and again to be of little consequence. I'm guessing this looked like a low cost big benefit action to Putin. After all, half of the Russians fight will be carried out by the Dims and the MSM here in the US. If the Dims keep things tied up at home, it'll all be over before we can make a significant move. I have to admit I believe this failure to handle Russia properly can be layed at Bush1,Clinton, and W's feet. Instead, of building up China into a regional superpower(why , for God's sake, would you do that? Read a little history China's been nothing but one big totalitarian, warlord run, stagnant, imperialistic shithole for the last five centuries) we should've been building up Russia economically and tying them in with trade deals. China could've easily sucked hind-tit for 2 or 3 decades more and it wouldn't have made a bit of difference to the world at large. Now we've got a Russia who's whole existence and foreign policy seem predicated on whatever hurts the US the most. And yes, calling Pootie out publically is a very bad sign. Especially, now that we know NATO is worthless.

42 We're so accustomed to seeing diplomatic doublespeak that something as straightforward and blunt as Condi telling the truth comes off as aggressive.

Good on her.  She's doing her job, with this one.  Of course, being an expert on the subject of Russia puts her in her element. 

43 Christoph - sorry, but if we have to go to those liberal sites to be disgusting, then the terrorists have already won.

44 #40 - That ain't the half of it. If he can provoke nucular war by fall, my guess is Bush will be able to suspend the election.

 

45 this might be ignoramus on my part, but it just floated through my brain...does anyone remember how the Israeli's were able to pull off that surgical strike on the Syrian Nuke site, US assisted in jamming the fuck out of the Russian supplied missile defense system. Somehow, this made recall that little sitch

46 I think you got to it in the end Ace.

The super-cynical view is that Bush made this demand in language calculated to provoke a refusal in order to make a show of his determination to insert troops into Georgia, while actually not wanting to do that at all.

Not wanting has nothing to do with it though, we just can't right now. Putin will not go off on this but see it as what it is. He will leave the government there, the Georgian people know the score and that's what matters. The Russins were ham fisted as hell, he doesn't want more at this point. He will be glad to give us cover as long as we stick to humanitarian stuff. Bad Cop, Good Cop is works just fine for him.

47 The Pentaverate at work, I tell ye!  Colonel Sanders is behind this.  Those 11 herbs and spices!

48 Russia lost a fucking TU-22 M "Backfire" bomber - that's their B-1.  When the US / Georgian SOF ground assets and the stealth air assets start owning the night, and they will, Ivan is gonna declare "Mission Accomplished" and toodle off back home.  Russians are all about maskarova - making an impression, and if they can leave the impression they are badasses, they'll be happy, but maybe will have learned another lesson about the effectiveness of American arms.

49 Every time they mention civilian bombing casualties and the pipeline near-miss they're reminding the Reds that we know how crappy their air force is. It isn't likely the Russians were just trying to scare the pipeline. They can't hit shit and they know we know it.

50

Turkey may not give basing rights, but they aren't going to stop overflights.  Also, last I looked the Black Sea is mostly international waters.  If they Turks were to close the (international) Bosporus to US shipping THAT would be an act of war.  You do realize that Tsiblisi is only about 600miles from Balad Airbase - basically a C-17 can make the roundtrip on less than half a tank of gas.  Close the Roki tunnel and you have 30,000 Russian hotages in Georgia.

Not that I think most of that will happen, but the US is not without options, and it is high time the Russkis grokked that.

51 The Russians can't handle a conflict with the US, and everyone knows it. An understanding will be reached.

52

sherlock - actually, it's kind of the mini-B-1 - and they've got lots of them, probably hundreds that they can't even crew.  Now a Blackjack - that's more like a B-1, but even bigger.

Where did you read this - I doubt a Stinger brought down that bad boy.

53 "This business will get out of control. It'll get out of control, and we'll be lucky to live through it."

54 You guys seem more sanguine about a fight with Russia than I think is warranted.

55 Ms. Rice has more balls than the entire MSM and Democrat party - not to mention half the Republican Party - fucking combined.

Americkkka, Fuck yeah!

56 To be played out later. Okay, we didn't really fuck with your in Georgia, so don't fuck with us in Iran.

57 Holdfast: good point. The Bosporus is the Russian Achilles heel; closed to Russian shipping, it would about make the nut. Russia would choke hard if their access to the Mediterranean were even stalled, much less cut off--and the BTC pipeline is basically worthless to them--or anyone else, for that matter--if Turkey gets pissed and cuts off either the terminus or the straits. BTW, just heard John McCain taking questions in Michigan re Georgia. I'm no big fan, but he was hitting most of the right notes, seemed to me.

58 ace, come on. US Nuclear missile forces are much more accurate than Russian forces. Just look at their damn air force!

Obviously no one wants war with Russia, but if it comes to it, in both conventional and nuclear arms, the west has a clear advantage.

59 Equivocating got the good guys everywhere before right?
Sudetenland, Ruhr, Kuwait...

60

Any dreams of having Russia as an ally like some of the other former soviet countries have become (like Ukraine, Georgia), I think, went out the window in Kosovo, and that's that. That's when the sand got in the Ruskie vag.

Better or worse, I think it's a done deal. Russia is hostile and moving backwards. Had there been no bombing of Serbia, there might not today be issues with Iran, even, as the Russians might well have been with us. Imagine sending these dogs out to spank Iran or Afghanistan for us?

But, I think, that's just alternate history. We wanted to save Kosovo and we did and the Kosovars want to give us all big sloppy BJs. It's not the end of the world. A half-dozen Georgias and Kosovas are worth just as much as a Russia is, but this 'looking into his soul' shit we need to be disabused of.

The Russians are being run by dictatorial ex-KGB agents and they love it. And flush with new money and energy resources they're looking to expand influence again. And just like with Iran, or North Korea, or China, if you give an inch they'll take a mile, and the further they go, the more you'll regret it. The sooner and the harder you bitch slap them, the better.

And they'll hate us for it...but my analysis is that was a done deal anyway, signed back in the 90's.

61 Holdfast, Exactly what I was going to post! A few JDAMs on the Roki tunnel and the Russians are fucked. We have transports and fighters that can get there from Bagram AB, Shitistan and an air refueling track over the Black Sea that we use multiple times a day. I guess Turkey could queer the tankers access to the track if they wanted to be dicks, but we have work-arounds. Hell, if it comes down do it, we could launch a B-2 from the states and tell the Georgians to make a 'bombing run' about 1 minute after it obliterates the target and claim credit. I picked a GREAT year to go back on active-duty.

62

Where did you read this

There's a link to an Aviation Week article (or at least its home page where you can find a link to the brief article) in the Georgia post from yesterday, Holdfast.

63

You guys seem more sanguine about a fight with Russia than I think is warranted.

Well right now the U.S. has a large advantage over Russia in terms of military effectiveness - our diplomacy should reflect that. Plus it's better to run a little risk now when little is at stake than have to deal later with a more aggressive Russia trying to topple/absorb Baltic and central european states.

64

re: ace @ 54

Actually, and somewhat ironically, this is shaping up exactly as the last season of West Wing.  In that show US Troops were interposed between two warring forces to act as a trip wire at about the time the presidential election was taking place. Has anybody seen Aaron Sorkin recently?

----

fwiw, I think the Russians will have some sort of reality check when it comes to the issue of fighting with the US.  The difference between now and, say, Vietnam where we fought mostly by proxy is that we've retired aircraft that are technically superior to what the Russians are flying today. 

 

65 I'm sorry that you're living in interesting times, phat. Take care.

66 You guys seem more sanguine about a fight with Russia than I think is warranted.

We can all change our font color to red if you think that will help.

67

Come on, Ace! Stop wetting yourself. Russia is not going to fight the US. They have Ossetia now and Condi is merely warning them from swallowing all of Georgia proper.

Time to beef up Geogia's antitank and antiair assets, I think. Try to get them(and Ukraine!) into NATO right away. Russia can't sustain a major war in Georgia and they are going to back away with a bloody nose if they try. They have been degrading and selling off their tech assets for 15 years. They are still playing with 1989 equipment that has not been taken care of.

Russia help us with Iran?... Bwa, ha, ha! Good one, Putin, you lying schmuck! All you need to do is wait for Obama and you can have your former republics back without a fight!

  

68 Are Americans being ordered home from Russia? I know a couple of people living in Moscow.

69

Conversations you are not hearing about in the media, but which are probably really happening:

"Poot-poot, you want to see me make a tank column disappear?  It's gonna be gone Friday morning one way or the other, your choice: gone home, or suffering from an overdose of vitamin B-2."

Seriously, I don't think this is a laughing matter, but the only thing thugs understand is force - how often do we have to learn that lesson the hard way?  And when did reacting strongly to thugs ever cause worse things to happen than would have happened eventually if we had just rolled over?

And one final point.  Lots of us have made fun of Bush and his "I looked in his eyes" approach to diplomacy.  It may have led Bush to misjudge Putin once, but once such a misjudgement occurs, people who base their judgements on values seldom make them again.  People who have no values just keep on living the fantasy.

70 US Nuclear missile forces are much more accurate than Russian forces. Just look at their damn air force!

Obviously no one wants war with Russia, but if it comes to it, in both conventional and nuclear arms, the west has a clear advantage.

Christoph,

There are somethings where close is good enough. Nuclear weapons happen to be one of them. A couple of hundred years may make a difference in getting at hardened command and control bunker but not when the target is a city.
The Russians are good enough to ruin our day if it comes to that.

71

ace-

One of my business associates just got back from 10 days in Moscow.  The timing was, shall we say, interesting.  He had three very interesting observations of life in Moscow.

1.  Many of the women are drop dead gorgeous with legs up to here and they are readily available. 

 

Where was I?

oh yea.

2. The city is literally awash in material goods, high end material goods, and they can't build new stores fast enough.  Gucci, Prada, 5 Maybachs in one night, etc., etc.  It is rapidly becomming one of the high end consumer goods capitals of the world.

3. While still highly corrupt, cash is king in Moscow.  Nobody wants a return to the old days, nobody with money, and they run the country from behind the scenes.  You may have noticed the other day that an unamed Russian businessman (read Russian mafia) just spent close to a billion, yes billion, dollars on a home on the Cote d'Azur.  It was the most expensive private home sale in history.

There is a lot of dismay in Moscow amongst the monied gentry over Putin's actions.  They believe, rightly, that he is jeopardizing Russia's economic future and they want him to knock it off.  If we continue to tighten the screws, and be we I mean the G7, and show a miliary humanitarian combined front, Putin will back down.  He has way too much to lose and nothing to gain.

72 "You guys seem more sanguine about a fight with Russia than I think is warranted."


I'm with Ace on that one.

73 DrewM., we got lots of cities. The point if it comes down to it is to hurt them more, and I totally think the west has the hardware to do it.

74 Christoph,

Why don't you go back to Gabe's thread and rant some more about religion?  You're either very dumb or just not funny. Come to think of it, those aren't exactly mutually exclusive.

75 War with the Russians right now, BWHAAAAAA, with what ground force, the few that we have there now, or the ones that we would get from the draft that will never happen? Put an aircraft carrier in the Black Sea to launch strikes, it would never leave there, and the Turks will not let us use the bases in their country. Bush is a denutted lame duck that can only talk tough, he is thought of by Putin as a sap with good reason. Is Geogia really worth a war with Russians, no, not any universe with sane people in it. If it really meant that much the Russians would not have gone in the first place. You can talk all you want about how much better the US weapon systems are than the Russians, and they are, but they have  a lot of weapons to use and we cant stop all of them. The Russians dont care how many troops they would lose, they got more, and Bush cant afford any more wars or the masses of dead American soldiers that would come back in body bags, win or lose. BTW where was our Russian expert while all this was brewwing, working on her short game on the links, we to be on top of it Condi. This is a war between a fool that trusted Bush and thought that Putin was afraid of what he would do and a cold calculating ex KGB col that doesn't give a shit about the rest of the world and what it thinks of them.

76 With the Russkis arming the Iranians, Norks, Syrians and Venezualans, they can hardly bitch if we give the Georgians some SAMs and ATGMs, can they?  It's not like they will be going over onto the offensive and attacking Russia - heck, they've pretty much conceded  that South Ossetia is lost already.

77 You're funny, Drew.

I'm kidding, actually. That's why I put a comment above that said, "Kidding."

A war with Russia would be terrible. For the west, for Russia, and... this is where it gets important... for Vladimir Putin and his cronies.

I don't think we should be so freaked out about it we're not willing to stand up to Russian naked aggression. If we do so, we may need to fight a war later when it is not a time of our choosing and the results could be far more terrible.

By standing up to Putin now, particularly with their air force doing so poorly and the American land and air forces being recently combat proven, I believe this is the the safer course.

78

42 "We're so accustomed to seeing diplomatic doublespeak that something as straightforward and blunt as Condi telling the truth comes off as aggressive."

 

THREAD WINNER

 

best regards

79 So there's no misunderstanding, I'm not saying use the military against the Russians. I'm saying do what Bush and Rice are doing, which is speak strongly and back it up with "humanitarian" military advisors. I thought this was well played, considering what a crappy situation it is all around.

And there's not a lot of time left considering where Russian tanks are located.

80

Jeff - you are a bedwetting little girl.  Either grow a pair or go post on Feministing.  The Russians want war with us as little as we do with them.  Their military is still in shit shape, and since we are not out to conquer their country, we don't need a lot of ground troops here.  Anyway, at worst Georgia will become a divided country like Germany was or Korea is - much better than letting it be absorbed by Russia as a lesson to Ukraine and all the other ex-USSR members. 

I would agree that sailing a carrier into the Black Sea would be silly - which is why we won't do it - we don't need to.

81 Posted by: Christoph at August 13, 2008 05:07 PM (hawOV)

That I will agree with. I thought we were destined to eat this shit sandwich and move on simply because we had no cards to play.

It's taken a couple of days but it seems they've found some to play after all. If they don't have more than this talk in mind, we're fucked. You can't back down from this kind of language. If you do, you'd have been better off saying nothing.

It looks like we're about 3 days late getting in the game but the Russians have overplayed their hand and given us time to regroup.

If they had just stuck with South Ossetia and Abkhazia they might have won (and they likely will still get their way in at least one of those areas) but trying to overthrow the government of Georgia and worse (from their point of view) not doing it quickly has fucked them. They may not get anything out of this adventure but a kick in the nuts.

82 what do you mean?

Granted, I'm trying to be optimistic here. I'm assuming that Bush has decided that Russia can't be allowed to depose a democratically-elected president of a country we're allied to, and that he believes there's a reasonable chance he can do that without getting us into a major war.

That being said: look, this is about more than Georgia, or even Ukraine and other former Soviet satellites. Think of all the money and blood we've spent in Iraq alone, which is right next door. This is no time to give our allies and friends in a critical part of the world any reason to think that we're going to suddenly bug out. Do we want the whole "Sunni Awakening" to founder because suddenly it looks like there's a stronger horse in town? Because if we let Russia get away with this, then there's no telling what other sorts of shenanigans they might think of down the road. If the Middle East is as important as we've been saying, we can't leave our allies there open to bullshit like this.

Sometimes doing that requires blunt language, because the stakes are too high for mincing, equivocal talk that leaves any doubt as to where we stand. I'm not sanguine about a war with Russia (I don't think it needs to come to that), but I also don't want our leaders to tiptoe around them just because there's any chance at all that this could escalate.

Also remember, we're a superpower, and they know it. I don't think Putin wants a full-blown war any more than we do.

83

Firstly, it always bothers me to see people dismiss an advesary off the cuff as being a pushover.

Secondly, I believe Bush did the right thing in sending humanitary aid to the Georgians and having the military carry it out, at this point nobody is blind as to what the intentions are.....it is a two fold stratagy in doing actual humanitarian work, coupled with our fine troops as being a tripwire.

We both have options....remember that.

IF US troops are killed during this effort wgich is taking place in a war zone, then the reality is extremley frieghtening.

Think about this, if our troops do land and they are killed in Georgia, does anyone reading this think that the Euros will step up to the plate, des anyone think that half our country will step up?

I doubt it.

Back to the statment on overestimating our advesaries, yes we do without a doubt have the finest militart this planet has ever seen in both boots on the ground forces and equptment but do not think the Rooskies dont have some bad arse hardware up their sleves...anyone remember the recent event when Russian fighters magically appeared over one of our carrier groups...well one thing it wasnt...it wasnt magic but some tech that we havent really come up with an answer for.

Im never for backing down, never for abandoning allies and never for taking serious situations such as this in a half hearted manner, hopefully if the crap does hit the fan we can get unified backing here at home as opposed to the traitorous bastards who relentllessley tried sabotaging our war effort in Iraq.

Anyhow, lets see how it shakes out, this could be a bumpy ride.

84 I certainly agree with your reasons why this is important, AndrewR, and underestimating Russian capabilities isn't a good idea, Strider.

That said, Putin's gotta be pissed his air force can't actually hit dick all.

85

Holdfast,

 

They have always had a shit military, they just have a few million of them and are willing to let them die. The Russians are taking advantge of a weak  and stupid admin, and there is nothing we can do to stop them from taking over the whole country. Kick them out of the G-8, next we will hold our breath until we turn blue, that will show them. They have already pulled out of the military union they had with Europe that would have required them to report troop and tank movements. Wake up to the fact that Bush has brought us lower and the Russians are going to take full advanyge of it. Grow a pair? Why, did your mom lose hers agian in your mouth.

86

You guys should all be in your bunks.  That was awesome.

She's not threatening military action at this point.  The G8 is about to become the G7.  Those UNSC meetings where our guys still thought the Russians cared about jihad just like we do?  I feel fairly certain that even most of our State Department folks have this one figured out by now.

Hell, I'd guess even Bush and Condi have thrown in the towel on having Russian "help" with Iran.  It kinda bums me out that it took them this long, but hey, better late than never.

For all we know, Vlad is in his bunk.  Nothing like a slap down from a smart, sexy woman, eh?  Poor Shep wouldn't quite comprehend why Vlad may want what Condi seems to be willing to deliver, but he's maybe found a bit of truth for once.

87 Also:

Not to dork out too much, but am I the only one getting a "Kaiser Wilhelm II" vibe off of Putin?

88 "They have already pulled out of the military union they had with Europe that would have required them to report troop and tank movements."

You are such a stupid, snot nosed piece of shit. "Required them." Uh huh.

Yes, there IS something that can be done to prevent the fall of Georgia, it is not a fait accompli as you believe, and it is being done.

Because the MAN in the White House is a thousand times the man you could ever be. Jenna Bush has more testicular fortitude than you could sum up with an open issue of Tits and Bum in front of you for inspiration.

89

Obama would rather win the presidency than win the war.  Jeff wants to lose an entire region of the world just to validate his BDS world view.    The US still has plenty of cards to play - you're only out of options when you decide that your are.   It's pussies like you that convince bullies that they will always win.

Oh, and the CFET was not a "union" you pissant nitwit.

90

Holdfast,

 

Sorry about the lame insult, trying to post, watch Cub highlights, and trying to keep the kid from lighting the cat on fire at the same time.

91 You even prove you're a pussy with your apology, jeff. Holdfast is a decent guy and might do you the favor of accepting it anyway.

It would be better if you didn't speak of the potential loss of Georgia with a bit of triumphalism. If your President can do nothing to help that American ally, then so be it. But that's a bad thing, not a good thing... isn't it?

92

Just the same, I'm digging out my copy of  Red Dawn.

93

Oh, and the CFET was not a "union" you pissant nitwit.

What the hell is the CFET? do you mean the CIS?

Hell, that wasn't even "europe", it was former Soviet States (including Russia, who was attacking them before they pulled out).

94 I'm digging out my copy of  Red Dawn.

Wolverines!

95

Ugh. Thanks for the warning about Shep. I'll be sure and not turn on his annoying show when I get home from work tonight. Isn't it about time for him to take a vacation to get more plastic surgery?

I think Ace's feeling that tough talk behind the scenes didn't work is right on. I don't think Condi would be mouthing otherwise. Her pattern is not to jump right to the schoolyard taunts. Look how calm she's been in the face of all the provocation by the Palis for the last seven years. And that's just one example.

Does anyone have a theory about what Russia's behavior vis-a-vis Georgia might have to do with the current standoff with Iran? Maybe some kind of diversionary tactic?

 

96

jeff-

Are you ignorant or stupid?  The Russian army went into the toilet after the breakup of the USSR.  Putin has been rebuilding it but it is still a shell of it's former self.

Russia ranks either number 8 or number 9 in the world ranking of annual dollars spent on the military.  They spend less than France.  We spend almost as much in a month as they do annually.  They have almost 50% less manpower than we do, about a million, not millions and their troops are not nearly as well trained or equiped as ours.  Or Frances.  They spend about as much as Saudia Arabia or India.  And less than France.

Bush is not attempting a go it alone strategy, in any case.  The Europeans appear to be stepping up and if they don't go wobbly Putin could be outgunned something like 100 to 1.  Sounds scary, huh? 

There, now you aren't ignorant anymore.  Stupid, well you're on your own on that one.

97

Kick them out of the G-8, next we will hold our breath until we turn blue, that will show them.

That's punitive, and it will show them. It's not preventative. It's not meant to get them out of Georgia.

I'll be simply fuckin astonished if they actually take any punitive measures at all after the fact and not just let the whole thing slide.

In the mean time, they're in fact utilizing a varient of the strategy I suggested the other day. They're sending Condie into Tblisi (along with other world leaders that have been going there). Dare the Russians take it with them present? And they're putting "humanitarian" forces in. It's the perfect response, frankly. A bit slow, but perfect. Russians will not blatantly attack US troops. And while the Georgian President may be the only one saying it, it's obvious to everyone what this means.

98

"The purpose of diplomacy is to prolong a crisis."

-Starfleet Commander Spock-

 

"The war shouldn't be over. We should stop pussyfooting about the mongolid Russians!
                   
We'll have to fight them anyway. Why not do it now?   
                  
In  ten days I'll have us at war with those sons of bitches, and make it look like their fault!
                  
I'm no diplomat.
                 
I'm a combat soldier.
That's all they understand.
  
                  
Give me the word, and I'll kick their asses back to Russia where they belong.

 

-George C. Scott

(as a mildly idealized version of George Patton).

99

CFET = Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty - which is what I assumed jeff was aluding to.  Basically a treaty entered into around the end of the Cold War - limited each side's forces in Europe (west of the Urals, east of the Atlantic Ocean) and as part of it, each side has/had to notify the other over major troops movements.  The Russians pulled out a while ago over US missile defense - too bad, but a reasonably price to pay.  At any rate, both sides were already well below  the ceilings.

Anyway, if that was a genuine apology from jeff for the language, then it is accepted and I too apologize for my language, though obviously my underlying views on Obama and US policy remain (as do his, I am sure).  Unless we turn this into a flamewar thread, in which case my fingers were crossed.

100 Does anyone have a theory about what Russia's behavior vis-a-vis Georgia might have to do with the current standoff with Iran? Maybe some kind of diversionary tactic?

CornFedBeauty,

Maybe but sometimes the simplest answers are the best...they wanted to grab while the grabbing was good.

Georgia got shot down for NATO membership this spring and Ukraine is up this December. They may just wanted to bully us our of expanding more, plus they want to intimidate Poland and the Czech Republic from hosting components of the missile defense shield. Finally, never underestimate the Russians desire to settle old scores (including Kosovo, though Russian machinations in the breakaway regions of Georgia pre-date that) and they really don't like how cozy Georgia has gotten with the West.

There maybe a deeper game, especially about oil and such but from the Russian perspective this had a lot going for it in terms of blunt message delivering.

101

Bush still hasn't won a war has he. Yes the Russian a have a shit army, a really big shit army and the will to use it. Most of the money that we spend on our military are for weapons that will never be used in this war over Georgia, missle defense and Iraq take up a lot of that money.50% less manpower, uhhhh no they have more troops than we do. Go it alone strat, you really see France or Germany coming to the aid of Georgia, if you do, then please share that great stuff that you are smoking.

 

Yes it is a bad thing that the Russians are on the prowl once more, and no, I am not happy about it. What I am is angry that the admin is so clueless about what is going on that the best we can do is  tut tut and tell them that we are not happy.  The Georgians are going to pay for trusting him and there is not one wit that we will do to stop the Russians from doing they want.

 

Accept the insult, sure for what it is, I just really dont take as a slap to my manhood, I am a little to secure in myself to really let online insults get to me, I just take them as a bit of fun. Chrissy you seem to think that any insult is a reason for a fight, grow up kid. life is too short to take that kinda of stuff seriously.

102

Today I heard a story about the Georgia crisis on NPR that was quintessential lib-think. The anchorman asked his guest what it was that the Georgian president had been doing to "taunt" the Russians so, and thus incite this attack.

Perhaps Georgia was wearing too short a skirt, and thus was asking for it.

The Russians want to depose the democratically-elected head of the Georgian government as a warning to other former satellite nations to pay up for the fruit machines they broke. Also, so they can fuck with the oil pipeline that passes through the country.

This is a direct challenge to the US. All the mewling and carping about expensive gas, and the Iraq war is taking too long, and frat-hazing is the same as torture has made us look like we're pussies. And if we're unable to absorb 5,000 casualties in five years, or drill for ouil where it might block the view, or are ready to vote for a world-citizen who openly drips with contempt for America and for its military, then maybe we are.

But I don't think so.

As Hemingway once said, "gash is fine, but an eye for mine."

103 No, they don't have more troops, jeff. Repeating something doesn't make it true.

104

Holdfast,

 

That is the treaty I was talking about, how good it was to start with is up for debate, not good IMO. The fact remains that there is not much we can do to stop the Russians from doing what they want to in Georgia. This admin has not been real good in the use of the military and has come as close to breaking it as I would ever want to see.

Chris,

Troop strength in the Russian military is still larger than what we have available to send and since most of their military is in the Army we dont have those numbers to fight them with in a ground war. I would love to see them lose, it is not gonna happen, not with our military at its breaking point. 2013 is when they will be down to that point which is still more than we have now.

105 Bush still hasn't won a war has he.

Posted by: jeff at August 13, 2008 06:04 PM (3ZswP)

I think that's a matter of perspective.

106 Glad to hear I'm not the only one who hates that dickhead Shepard Smith!

107

Shep Smith, Vapid New Reader Extraordinaire, apparently had never seen or heard of "Abkhazia" until yesterday-- when it turned up on the teleprompter in front of him-- because he had to pause.....try to pronounce the word , utterly blew it.

'Course, that might be because the German slang word for giving a blow job is (IIRC) "abkauen".

Too close for comfort there, Shep???

108

This is no time to give our allies and friends in a critical part of the world any reason to think that we're going to suddenly bug out.

Right on. And writing off Poland for the third time in 70 years would be very bad form, AndrewR.

109

My understanding is that the Russians can veto the addition of a country to NATO, and have already threatened to do so with regards to Georgia when the idea was brought up several years ago.  So getting Georgia and/or the Ukraine into NATO is a pipe dream unless we throw the Russians out of NATO first, and I doubt that's even possible.

My vote is for the Ukraine first, because they have the hottest chicks in Eastern Europe.  Must be something in the water.

110 Hubris, vapid and banal.

111 What I like about this arrangement is that since the Russians have been saying that they have been fighting the US (obvious lie), using US forces for the humanitarian effort calls them on it.

112

So getting Georgia and/or the Ukraine into NATO is a pipe dream unless we throw the Russians out of NATO first, and I doubt that's even possible.

WTF?

It's not possible to throw the Russians out of NATO, because the Russians aren't in NATO...

113 "My understanding is that the Russians can veto the addition of a country to NATO"

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was an organization created to defend countries against the Soviet Union (the Russians). Russia doesn't have a veto on NATO membership.

You're thinking about a different organization called the UN (United Nations), which is comprised of Georgia, Russia, and most other countries on Earth. Russia is 1 of 5 countries on the UN Security Council and has the ability to veto resolutions calling for the use of force: The others are China, France, Great Britain, and the United States.

114

Re: Germany; partially true.  The defense plan against a Soviet assault was a retrograde action; ball up at the next river, kick the shit out of em with air, artillery and anti-tank weaps, blow the bridges and move back to the next river until we could reinforce.  That was practiced regularly in an exercise called "Reforger".

The underlying concern was "how much ground would the Germans give before they said 'fuck this' and sought a separate peace?".

But yeah, bombing US troops could dissuade Putin, particularly just our presence giving us the ability to observe just what the fuck everybody is really doing.

115 >>My understanding is that the Russians can veto the addition of a country to NATO, and have already threatened to do so with regards to Georgia when the idea was brought up several years ago. So getting Georgia and/or the Ukraine into NATO is a pipe dream unless we throw the Russians out of NATO first, and I doubt that's even possible. Russia is not a NATO member and has no veto power. However, that is essentially what they are trying to do right now with Georgia, keep them out of NATO. This isn't news. They flat out stated months ago that if Georgia was awarded a MAP by NATO, Georgia would lose South Ossetia and Abkhazia and that is exactly what they are attempting to do. They have also threatened to start pointing missles at Ukraine if they got a MAP and they will. Russia does not want a NATO Georgia and a NATO Ukraine on their border. They are trying to dictate to NATO. How NATO responds here, not just the US, is going to go a long way toward determining the future of NATO.

116 The Russian presence in Georgia is at the end of a very thin logistical trail themselves -- they had to move their tanks through a single tunnel in the Caucasus.  (Look at the map -- Georgia has a mountainous border with Russia that basically precludes any heavy stuff moving.)  Now the Russians are attempting to set up a water route too, but our Navy's going to, uh, help the humanitarian relief.

We've had 'advisors' (read:  special ops) there for ages, and the airlift allows us to supply the Georgians with all sorts of stuff including anti-aircraft weapons.  So we can smile and keep it "clean" while letting the locals make the Russian presence prohibitively expensive.  Alternately, US air superiority + a couple of A10s = quick obliterations of all Russian armor.

I think.

117 My vote is for the Ukraine first, because they have the hottest chicks in Eastern Europe.

That part was pretty accurate though.

118 Well, this is putting your life where your mouth is.
This should shut down the asstards who've been rather gleeful over the prospect of showing the world how the US will never stand by its allies.

119 Sorry, the Security Council has 15 member states at any one time: 5 permanent members with veto power (the ones I gave), and 10 elected members who don't have veto power and serve a 2 year term.

120 Oh shit... that's... that's high stakes poker right there. I approve and think it's the right thing (like that matters) but it is one with huge ramifications.

121

Oy Yoy Yoy!!

To think we've got explain such elementary matters as the origin and purpose of NATO here at Ace!!!

 

 

122 There are some indications Russia may have deployed SS-21 tactical nuclear missile launchers to South Ossetia. If so, I think the US has to be prepared to force Putin to halt in place.

123 Didn't Condi actually say "G7" a couple of days ago?

This needs to have happened already.  No matter how this resolves, the mask is off.  The Putin kleptocracy can never pretend to be civilized again.

124 someone, it was John McCain who did the G7 thing.

125

The stated purpose of NATO:

The keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.

126

The unanswered question that needs to be asked is "What are the roads like in Eastern Turkey?" If I'm not wrong we have a rather large and powerful army somewhere in the area (Iraq).

I wonder what kind of conversations are going on with Turkey. We need to be moving troops north in a very open manner rahter quickly. It would also be nice if Turkey just made a rather simple statment along the lines of "The United State has asked for and been given permision to move troops through eastern Turkey as part of a road march exercise."

I think that would give old poot poot second thoughts.

127 Pure fantasy, southdakotaboy.

128 Seriously, guys; this is NOT helping Obama's kids.

129 We are not gonna risk a nuclear war over Georgia by sending a "large and powerful army" through Turkey.  It just ain't gonna happen, nor should it.

130 As for the Putin thing, I wonder if perhaps there might not be a bit of Kremlinology going on here.  Medvedev has, at least publicly, taken a calmer line.  Meanwhile Putty-putt is out personally supervising the operation...  Could one aim here be to discredit Putty in favor of Russia's more economically rational thugs?

131

We do have some non-military leverage that we could use.  Some sort of Russian asset freeze could send the Russian stock market tumbling without too big of a impact worldwide.  That would wake them up in the Kremlin.  Any sort of move that would inconvenience the Oligarchs in their looting activities would be very unwelcome.

The other thing we have going for us is the regional allience of the Ukraine, Baltic republics and the former Eastern European satelites.  Russia has a lot of the cards but not all of them.

132 This whole incident is just a ruse, - a proxy war between Iran and Israel. 

Ivan  is proving itself to be nothing more than a big lumbering tool.

133

Sorry, just got up and no coffee.  I was thinking of the UN Security Council, and I will now go now do penance via flaggellation and a one-month ban on my commenting anywhere on anything.

(humbly crawls away in shame)

134

By sending real troops doing real missions into Afghanistan, Georgia became de facto something that we cannot back down over.

That's what being allied to the US means.

The memory of Viet Nam lingers yet: we deserted those poor bastards in one of the most ignoble displays of faithlessness in our history, and no one has fucking forgotten about that.

We've been trying to erase the stain ever since. In very real, very important to us in a geo-political sense, we have no other option but to support the Georgians.

I thoroughly disagree with anyone suggesting that we don't have a pony in this race (or whatever). Our fucking national credibility is at stake over this. We made it thus in the here-and-now by withdrawing support from the South Vietnamese in fucking there-and-then.

And the fucking world is fucking watching.

Bully for George, and bully for Condi (my estimation of her went up equally as someone else pointed out).

So. Fuck the Russian vodka-swilling en passants playin at their real-politik game by this shit.

As I remarked half-facetiously in an AOSHQ thread earlier today "kick their asses all the way back Czar Peter."

...I ain't bein' half-facetious this time.

135

PDilzzle, you beat me to it.  But that is because you are mean person from a mean country.

For the first time in my life, I was proud of my country.  But now?  After how you used this international incident to oppress me and my children? 

Proud no longer.

136

Oddly enough, I suspect that Russia's options are limited with respect to this matter simply because our options are limited.  If they really decided to push things toward a major war, they face a serious risk: because most of our conventional forces are engaged elsewhere, it becomes much more likely that we would have to resort to the nuclear option.  Just as we are unlikely to risk a nuclear war for Georgia, it's probably a safe bet that the Russians won't, either.

 

On a purely theoretical level, it would be interesting to see what the Russians would have done had we immediately put all of our strategic forces on full alert as soon as their tanks rolled.

137 Prager played the Bush speech today and analyzed it. He said Bush spanked the Russians hard. Bush said "We expect" 5 times like a parent telling a kid this is how it is going to be. I have no idea what Russia's response will be, but it is good to see someone has a spine.

138 Close the Roki tunnel and you have 30,000 Russian ho(s)tages in Georgia.

The Russian presence in Georgia is at the end of a very thin logistical trail themselves

We have the winner.  The Georgian troops have barely been touched, 3,000 US trained troops hardened in Iraq were just re-deployed back home and the Russian can't hit shit while we the Georgians can sure knock them out of the sky.  Things aren't adding up too well for Vlad if he stays too long.

139 I'm real hawkish on staring down the Russians over their invasion of Georgia. Putin wont overplay his hand and we're going to get some real good PR out of it. Good for Condi; Good for Bush. Lets get some boots on the ground, birds in the air and subs in the sea.

140 The big problem here is that the Russian Bitches lied about being done with their adventure and pushed to the Georgian capital anyway. Stating that a ceasefire is in effect and then blatantly ignoring it takes us back to the 50s, 60s, and 70s when this is what the Sovs always did. You can't take their word on anything. I think they blatantly lied to the U.S. when queried and that's what's causing Bush and Condi to call them out. You don't ignore bullies. You have to confront them. I still think something had to have gone wrong for the Russians to have done this while Putin was at the Olympics. I guess they didn't think their S.O. agent provocateurs would actually provoke the Georgians into a response. I don't think it was wise for Georgia to do so, but technically S.O. was within their recognized border. The Georgians had to be pissed that the so-called Russian peacekeepers were turning a blind eye to the goings-on. I think this will cost the Russians a lot more than they realize. Even Obama can likely see what's going on.

141

Ace, how long have you been waiting to work "sanguine" into a comment? And why waste it on a bunch of neocon morons like us?

The russkies are pussies. Who's up for opening a good ole fashioned can of whoopass?

142 Shep Smith's mugshot.

143 "Medvedev has, at least publicly, taken a calmer line.  Meanwhile Putty-putt is out personally supervising the operation...  Could one aim here be to discredit Putty in favor of Russia's more economically rational thugs?"

Ever since Putin officially switched jobs to PM (and nothing really changed), I've been predicting he'll do away with the office of president altogether and restore the monarchy.  Not with himself as Tsar, of course, but with a constitutionally impotent Romanov whose name he can act in as PM.  It'd send his Russian nationalist creds further through the roof and make him that much more unaccountable and untouchable.

144

Just yesterday Va. Governor Tim Kaine, a wannabee Obambi Veep, publicly thanked Putin for agreeing to Obama Hosanna's call for a ceasefire.

Today, Kaine admitted himself to a Richmond ER, complaining that someone's dick was lodged in his throat.

I wonder whose?

145

Russia is simply a third world power with nukes that they will not use. Use them and get blasted by ours until they are just a bad memory. Ragged uniforms, they can't hit anything with a bomb from way up in the air so they came down closer. Same result, unable to score a hit on the pipeline they so desperatly wanted to take out. Put in American troops for aid, with the proper air cover, f-17s and stealth bombers. Then maybe Putin will decide to talk.Yes, I am a capitolist, imperealist warmongering pig! Having served myself I know we cannot appear weak or we invite more trouble than maybe we could handle.

Thanks gang.

146 Shepard Smith, Fuck You: "In the big picture, [Condi's statement about further isolation] plays into Vladimir Putin's wants and needs."

Shepard Smith is Fox's token handicap hire and quite possibly their nod to
the gay community (and I bet you thought Alan Colmes was the one).

I'd like to see this idiot dropped into a combat zone for some live reporting.
We could run a pool -- how long before Smith squeals and makes fudge in
his pants.

147

 NAH!  Putin  won't dare with our new super laser just announced.

Russian blinked when we sent in the first C17 with the Georgian troops, They did nothing and we could not care less. They don't want their little war get to be a big war. They will take the opportunity to trash and sack the Georgian infrastructure like they did today destroying ships in Poti  and leave the Cossacks and Ossetian irregulars behind to murder, rape, pillage and plunder.

148 You'll get a kick out of this.  I was on the road all day and had the local talk station on while in the car.  During one of the top of the hour news breaks, Shep came on and read some news about Obama.  Called him Osama.  Almost had me creating a five car pile-up, I was laughing so hard.  Our boy Shep, the hero of Katrina.

149

Look, I don't care if we can humiliate the Russki troops to the point of making them lift olives from the necks of open vodka bottles with their arses, and then carry them between their cheeks to be dropped into an open fire.

We can do that.  (Hell, I did that, in my fraternity days)

What we can't do is control the idiots with their fingers on the nukes. When THEY feel humiliated is the day we all become Crispy Critters.

 

150 uhhhh no they have more troops than we do.

That's called a "target rich environment".

151

This is a war-for oil.  Georgia had the only oil pipeline to western europe not controlled by the ruskies.  Now that they have cut georgia in half, they have all of them.  Bush should be lining up every eastern europeon country to cut russian pipelines off.  They lose money and we get to piss in France's and Germany's cereal.  Win-win situation.

Move our air force, the portion that we can, to eastern europe too.  Heh, put our missle subs out on alert.  Do we still have SAC bombers to fuck with their minds?  Why do we have to cut our loses - a democratic ally country - make the ruskies pay instead.

152

There is a lot of chest thumping going on on this thread.  If history is a guide, things that people think are "certain" when it comes to military conflict are in fact almost never certain. 

In the Korean War, MacArthur kept sending his troops closer to the Yalu in late 1950 thinking that there was no way "Chinese laundrymen" would ever take the U.S. on, and if the Chinese were stupid enough to do so, MacArthur was sure he would turn the Yalu red with Chinese blood.  Of course, the Chinese did come in to the war, and we ended up in a three year bloody stalemate with those "Chinese laundrymen" that MacArthur underestimated.

In 1914, nearly all of Europe talked itself into a war, because some crazed radical decided to shoot an archduke of the decrepit Austrian-Hungarian Empire.  The Germans thought they could quickly defeat the French in the West with the Schlieffen Plan, and then turn the energies on Russia in the East.  It did not work out that way, and in the process millions of people died, four empires were destroyed (the German empire, the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire) and a fifth (the British Empire) was put on its deathbed due to the extraodinary amount of men and resources it lost as a result of the War.

In our Civil War, a bunch of radical Southerners led a breakaway group out from the old Democratic Party, and then went on to lead the Southern states to break away from the Union, thinking that the either the North was too timid to fight or if the North did, valiant Southern men would quickly defeat the North.  We all know how that worked out for the South.

Sorry, for being long-winded, but my point is that once we put U.S. soldiers on the ground in a "humanitarian" mission, the law of unintended consequences will start to come into play.  Maybe some Russian General Wesleymir Clarkovich will decide to try to provoke the Americans in some way.  Maybe Russian jets will "accidently" bomb American positions.  How will we respond then?  If we are not prepared to go to war with Russia over Georgia (and for the sake of all us, I sure as hell hope we are not), we have no business putting troops on the ground to bluff the Russians into backing off.  They may call our bluff.

I agree with Ace, this could quickly get out of hand.  Look, the world sucks sometimes, but not every situation is Munich and we cannot be the world's guarantor of freedom and safety in all situations.  Not to be trite, but sometimes you have to pick and choose your battles and I am not sure Georgia is the place I would pick to make a point with the Russians.

I wish I had something witty to say, but I'll be honest, this situation could get pretty dicey, pretty quick.  It ain't Panama or Grenada (or even Iraq for that matter).

153 I'm proud of some of the actions of our government, like a commitment to peaceful resolve on our nation's part. We cannot make any commitment of troops in this region.

However, the very nature of the U.S. diplomatic position comes from being drawn into entangling alliances. While Georgia is fighting for access to NATO,  Russia is attempting to prevent that from happening.

Of course, in the present conflict, all sides are guilty of aggression.

If NATO didn't exist, (because I think the Cold War's been over for 2 decades now,) the U.S. would have little responsibility to be present in the region. This is Georgia's war not ours.

If you agree that America should stay out of these kind of struggles so we don't perpetuate their existence, check out Chuck Baldwin at balwin2008.com.

154 Could you help me. Because we don't think about future generations, they will never forget us. Help me! Need information about: Anti asthma. I found only this - same as ventolin. Anti allergy dust mite proof mattress covers to fit virtually all mattress sizes. Chinese medical explanation of allergic rhinitis, sinusitis and asthma side effects of anti histamines and decongestants allergic rhinitis. With best wishes :-), Lenora from Japan.

155 Sorry. Listen. Do not have an opinion while you listen because frankly, your opinion doesn?t hold much water outside of Your Universe. Just listen. Listen until their brain has been twisted like a dripping towel and what they have to say is all over the floor. I am from Bolivia and also am speaking English, give true I wrote the following sentence: "Roberts claimed alongside dress norm macdonald." With best wishes ;-), Turner.

156 圣诞节封建时代，感觉到规范的。到非公开 电磁流量计的风格。

157 身份是嘎嘎嘎，到规划马赛克放贷和法搞大法官。