November 19, 2009
— Ace We know this as a general matter. But to me it's significant that we can start seeing who specifically is in jeopardy due to ObamaCare.
If you're a soldier charging a hill, it's one thing to know that your group will take, say, 30% casualties. It's a different thing if you know in advance that you, specifically, will be one of the dead of war.
A Zogby Poll this week illustrates the stark choice facing Senate Democrats as they have to decide whether or not to vote for ObamaCare. The poll shows that Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, high up on the list of vulnerable Senate Democrats seeking reelection in 2010, literally faces a choice between being reelected and voting for the bill.The Zogby Poll shows Arkansans opposed to the Obama/Reid bill by 28-64, with 50 percent "strongly opposed" to the legislation. To swim in the face of such a current of public opinion is risky business for a U.S. senator.
Lincoln's most likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Gilbert Bennett, is hot on her heels in the poll, trailing by only 41-39. But asked who they would support if Lincoln votes for ObamaCare, Arkansas voters switch to Bennett, giving him a 49-36 victory. That Lincoln goes from two points ahead to 13 points behind over one Senate vote illustrates the potency of the opposition to healthcare changes.
It has to be noted that this poll was specifically commissioned by a group, the League of Voters, hoping to use the poll to lobby senators to vote against the legislation. Still, it's a reputable polling firm; Zogby has incentive to add his secret sauce, but there are limits to what he can do.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen and Fox both show Obama's approval at 46%. That is an all-time low for the Fox poll, which has generally found middling-to-high support for Obama, compared to other polls. It's not a poll that has been stacked against him.
Posted by: Ace at
11:34 AM
| Comments (253)
Post contains 370 words, total size 2 kb.
It doesn't matter if the Klan commissioned that poll. Those numbers are well outside the range you can dismiss for polling-commissioned bias.
The numbers are so stark that any senator thinking of keeping his job just felt his junk suck into his abdomen. As awful as this whole thing is, it's not without some humorous moments. Watching Pelosi's Choice in realtime = funneh.
Posted by: spongeworthy at November 19, 2009 11:39 AM (rplL3)
Posted by: erp at November 19, 2009 11:40 AM (BDRHK)
Posted by: fiatboomer at November 19, 2009 11:40 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: Stealth Gay Academic Conservative at November 19, 2009 11:41 AM (Vh1/h)
Posted by: alexthechick at November 19, 2009 11:43 AM (8WZWv)
Jeesh, is it a given now that no congress critter ever votes their convictions?
Saying the word convictions in front of a member of congress causes them to break out in a cold sweat. Just ask "Cold Cash" Jefferson.
Posted by: Flying Monkey at November 19, 2009 11:43 AM (Oxen1)
Just do it Blanche.
Barack has lots of cushy appointments to fill and you won't have to worry about re-election or those pesky voters ever again.
You name it: Czarship? Ambassador? Let us know.
Posted by: N. Pelosiyeva, H. Reidski, Members - Politburo, Central Committee at November 19, 2009 11:43 AM (s2bW4)
The Senator has the choice of being voted out of office in a general election, or losing in a primary challnege due to revenge by the Democrat leadership. There's only one way out - drop a paper bag of water on Pelosi's head from the visitor's gallery.
Actually, I think the primary thing is less certain. Their power to strike back and intimidate is fading.
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at November 19, 2009 11:43 AM (w41GQ)
It WOULD be funny to see Libs destroyed by Gozer in the form of J. Edgar Hoover...
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at November 19, 2009 11:44 AM (olNam)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 19, 2009 11:44 AM (NtiET)
Don't worry SEIU can change that life and death question to it's non euphemistic form with a quick pop of the knuckles.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at November 19, 2009 11:44 AM (0q2P7)
There should be no conflict in Lincoln's choice,she was elected to represent her constituents in Washington.The numbers tell her which way to vote.
Posted by: bulwark at November 19, 2009 11:44 AM (jvrmc)
Gonna come down to who the Congress Critters fear the most...... the voters..... or Reid-Pelosi.
I think this poll demonstrates the paradigm shift that started with the tea-baggers and the town hallers. Ordinary folks are more dialed in to whats going on in DC than any time in modern history, and they are determined to hold the elected officials accountable.
Posted by: fixerupper at November 19, 2009 11:44 AM (J5Hcw)
Posted by: Charles Johnson's Tip Jar at November 19, 2009 11:45 AM (wnU1W)
Posted by: eddiebear at November 19, 2009 11:45 AM (wnU1W)
I wonder what the numbers would look like if you throw Cap & Trade and Shamnesty into the mix ? Which is what the Dems are suggesting they will do in the Spring. I'm thinking mid 20s for support of anyone voting for that Troika of Taxes outside fo the deepest blue districts.
Posted by: Rocks at November 19, 2009 11:45 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: eddiebear at November 19, 2009 11:46 AM (wnU1W)
Posted by: fiatboomer at November 19, 2009 11:46 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 19, 2009 11:46 AM (NtiET)
Posted by: Jean at November 19, 2009 11:46 AM (PjevJ)
Self-preservation makes sense only if you assume the present electoral system will still be in effect.
/snark
But more seriously, I think the Progs are just going for it. They can all see the writing on the wall and figure Hell with it, full speed ahead.
God help us.
Posted by: Triumph at November 19, 2009 11:47 AM (lDdA/)
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at November 19, 2009 11:48 AM (w41GQ)
Posted by: Ryan Frank at November 19, 2009 11:48 AM (818kI)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 19, 2009 11:48 AM (NtiET)
Posted by: Huckleberry at November 19, 2009 11:49 AM (s2bW4)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at November 19, 2009 11:49 AM (muUqs)
>>They can all see the writing on the wall and figure Hell with it, full speed ahead.
2 can play at this game, BTW. This is why I'm almost more worried about the next guy we get in than Obama himself.
Posted by: Triumph at November 19, 2009 11:49 AM (lDdA/)
Posted by: Popcorn at November 19, 2009 11:49 AM (OOehk)
As pointed out above, the danger is a non-trival number of congress critters being bribed with post-elected-office jobs - okay, they might not be as nice as being a senator, but they'll still rake in the money, and never have to worry about those pesky voters again.
Point taken.... but those "jobs" are tied into the 2012 election as well.
Posted by: fixerupper at November 19, 2009 11:50 AM (J5Hcw)
Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 19, 2009 11:51 AM (A46hP)
That Lincoln goes from two points ahead to 13 points behind over one Senate vote illustrates the potency of the opposition to healthcare changes.
Must be those damn racists again!
Posted by: Chris Matthews at November 19, 2009 11:53 AM (fqDKB)
Let's get ready to Proceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed!
Posted by: Michael Buffer at November 19, 2009 11:54 AM (Q1lie)
Meanwhile, Rasmussen and Fox both show Obama's approval at 46%.
Hey Obama, how's our ass starting to taste???
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Posted by: Donna at November 19, 2009 11:55 AM (6heFO)
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How's my ass taste? Like I give a shit about anything but fucking this country?
Barack
Posted by: Obama at November 19, 2009 11:56 AM (i0WE5)
"The rich", in the Democrats' definition, being anyone employed by someone other than a union or the US government, or someone who has forfeited their status as a union or government worker by the sin of voting Republican.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at November 19, 2009 11:57 AM (olNam)
Point taken.... but those "jobs" are tied into the 2012 election as well. "
Not all of them. After the mandatory waiting period, there are very high paying lobbyist positions to be had regardless of who wins any election. In addition Soros might need another personal testicle masseuse or whatever.
Posted by: right at November 19, 2009 11:58 AM (EquV1)
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Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 19, 2009 11:59 AM (NtiET)
29 / Fixerupper:
Only the govt jobs like ambassador, czar, etc are tied to 2012.
Plenty of Dem think tanks, lobbying firms etc out there that pay lost better than govt appointments. See: Daschle, T., etc.
Posted by: Huckleberry at November 19, 2009 11:59 AM (s2bW4)
Posted by: Monty at November 19, 2009 12:00 PM (4Pleu)
29 / Fixerupper:
Only the govt jobs like ambassador, czar, etc are tied to 2012.
Plenty of Dem think tanks, lobbying firms etc out there that pay lost better than govt appointments. See: Daschle, T., etc.
Posted by: Huckleberry at November 19, 2009 04:59 PM (s2bW4)
"Dem think tank" isn't that an oxymoron?
Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at November 19, 2009 12:02 PM (kn+jW)
Posted by: Winston at November 19, 2009 12:03 PM (FggW0)
Nor is he wrong, historically.
It puts the GOP into the uncomfortable position of profiting from continued misery in the economy. I don't like that, because it leads to embarassing instances were GOPers actually root for the economy to get worse just to put a thumb in the eye of Democrats, and that's really fucking perverse.
Posted by: Monty at November 19, 2009 12:10 PM (4Pleu)
"state Sen. Gilbert Bennett, is hot on her heels in the poll, trailing by only 41-39"
Wow. Considering most voters in Arkansas don't even know that guys name that's pretty bad.
Posted by: Lea at November 19, 2009 12:10 PM (lIU4e)
Posted by: spongeworthy at November 19, 2009 12:11 PM (rplL3)
Considering how economically illiterate this administration is, I don't think we'd need to "root for the economy to get worse". We could stand there and say "They're f*cking things up and we know it" and be right.
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FWIW. Believe it when it happens.
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As an aside: in the Civil War, there were accounts of men fighting for the duty of carrying the colors in battle. The significance is that the advancing line of soldiers used the flag as a reference point to keep the line unbroken, advancing all at the same pace. The standard bearer was therefore a prime target of enemy snipers: if the colors fell, the advancing line might become ragged and thus weakened at various points.
So when a sniper killed the standard bearer, another man in the color guard would take the flag and become the next target. On occasion, an officer would reach for the fallen flag and be forced away from it by an NCO or enlisted man: they preferred to spare the officer the risk of carrying the colors on the principle that the officer's survival mattered more to the success of the attack than their own.
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Posted by: rockhead at November 19, 2009 12:21 PM (RykTt)
It should be Gilbert Baker (www.senatorgilbertbaker.com)
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I don't want to see economic improvement because it weakens Obama and his ilk and helps to prevent a total socialist takeover. In this case, it's preferring short-term pain to a lifetime of misery.
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Department of Not That Fucking Touch a Decision
November 19, 2009
Sen. Blanche Lincoln
Re: You Should Be Able to Decide This in a NanoSecond
Dear Senator Lincoln:
Seriously, this isn't that tough. You have a very simple choice:
a. Vote for ObamaCare and destroy the American Economy and Freedom as We Know Ittm, AND YOU WILL LOSE YOUR JOB and earn the undying hatred and approbation of nearly 100% of your fellow Americans, and probably die a useless old hag and be buried in a clearly marked grave that people will still visit 300 years from now to piss on you and curse your name to an eternity of burning in Hell, or,
b. Vote against Obamacare, and keep your job, and all those other nasty things above won't happen. Or, at least not right away, because you're sure to vote for some other America-Destroying Commie Piece of Shit Legislation while you are a Senator.
Choose wisely, for once.
Cordially,
Sharkman
Director, Department of Not That Fucking Tough a Decision
Posted by: Department of Not Really That Touch a Fucking Decision at November 19, 2009 01:06 PM (Zj8fM)
I was just about to say that. I cannot wait to see Lincoln gone (I'm from Arkansas), and, personally, I think she's going to lose either way she votes. I think she may just go out and take one for the team.
I know nothing about her, but I'm kinda skeptical on that. Senators (Dem Senators in particular) don't often knowingly risk losing their seats. They genrally don't give up a Senate seat until they lose an election, die, or get caught in a major scandal.
If it comes to a choice between voting for a bill they'd really like to pass and getting re-elected, you'd seldom lose money betting on them to try and save their seat.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at November 19, 2009 01:07 PM (plsiE)
Posted by: dorkafork at November 19, 2009 01:13 PM (wiDiv)
Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at November 19, 2009 01:26 PM (iYbLN)
How much prestige is there for an ambassadorship or agency head, and how high is the direct or indirect deposit into the financial account of her choosing?
Pelosi/Reid et al. will find the award needed to get the "Blue Dogs'" (aka moderate in name only) votes. Our Congress is a mockery. A full-on sham.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 19, 2009 01:31 PM (swuwV)
Senators like to keep their jobs, period. Being one of an "elite" 100 is a special position unmatched by any cushy private sector job that might be dangled.
Assuming an Obama defeat in 2012, this means some senator dethroned in 2010 only has two years to ride the private gravy train before they become PNG when a Republican administration moves in.
Lincoln is also one of the lower net worth Senators according to Open Secrets (i.e. under $2M), so she's not exactly "rolling in dough" and being a freshmen senator means she's not had the time to get into any of the really powerful committee positions, or develop a comprehensive rolodex -- which reduces her street value in the private market considerably.
"One-and-out" means you were not a terribly good senator by definition. She needs another term or two to plump her bank account and develop power and contacts before she'd be willing to go ideological and test the private waters by screwing her constituents.
If I had to venture a guess, its going to be 70/30 she caves just based on her personal economic situation and 1st term status. There is a fair chance she goes full retard and tosses it all away though. After all, she is a democrat.
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Posted by: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Unemployed) at November 19, 2009 01:44 PM (V9SYy)
Can anyone tell me what that magic poll number is? The one from which there is no return? Is that 42%?
While no per se magic number, as a general rule, an incumbent who is upside down on approval/disapproval of a range of 10 or greater (in otherwords, their approval number is 10 full points or more below their approval number, like 42-52) is toast. Even in the bluest and reddest of states (see, e.g. Corzine, Jon. Gov. - was negative 17 on election day). That is really the number to watch.
In terms of a Candidate A vs. Candidate B poll, the general number to watch is 46. If the incumbent can not get above 46, absent a strong third party, they are generally toast. Because undecides tend to break 3 to 2 in favor of the challenger. Thus, 46 is a good number to look at because most polls have a margain of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
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