August 30, 2004
— Ace A three-point lead, 48-45%, among likely voters, which was also the Rasmussen finding.
Looks like the Beltway Boys are going to have to take Wisconsin out of Kerry's column on next Saturday's show, eh?
But there's more.
He's also now tied in Pennsylvania, 47-47 (also among likelies).
It's hard to do the Electoral College calculation and not figure that if Kerry can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win the presidency, says G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., and director of the statewide Keystone Poll.
Dat's why they calls it the Keystone State. Kerry can't win without either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and he needs both to have a realistic chance of winning.
(Bush is narrowly behind among registered voters in both states, but who cares?)
Thumb's Up, Buddy!
— Ace So says the rumor mill, according to William Kristol, according to Soxblog, according to Instapundit.
A month ago I would have dismissed this as hooey. But at this point I don't rule anything out.
I guess one thing we know about Bush is that he is determined to 1) not be Clinton and especially to 2) not be his dad.
Well, his dad stuck with an unpopular Vice President and lost, right?
If you read this site on Bloglines, you might have noticed a deleted post that went missing from this site but showed up on Bloglines. I deleted the post because I thought it was silly (that's what I renamed it in draft form). But heck, maybe it wasn't:
Dick Cheney Outs Out-Daughter Before Dropping Out?
Cheney's heartfelt break from Bush on gay "marriage"-- the ultimate "Leaving for Family Reasons" pretext before a veep swap?
See, right before the Vice Presidential address, Dick Cheney announces he's departing, and John McCain/Rudy Guiliani/Tom Ridge/Gary Busey joins the ticket.
Bush loves suprises, right?
Now, I've always shot down these silly speculations. But this one is different. I thought of it.
See? Completely different.
(Back to today.)
One more bit of evidence: Karl Rove is promising that Bush will be "bold" at the convention. Why is he heightening expectations? Especially because, let's face it, there seems to be very definite limits to how bold he can possibly be, policy-wise. His foreign policy is bold, but we already know that; he certainly can't announce he'll be even bolder (i.e., the airstrikes on NK and Iran begin in five minutes). And it's not "bold" to promise "more of the same."
Domestic-policy-wise, Republicans have a limited ability to be "bold," since the very foundation of the Republican party is (generally) against additional spending or government programs. Sure, Bush could be "bold" by cancelling or cutting back programs, but that's not the sort of thing you do to reach out to mushy moderates. There's just no money available in the budget, so what on earth could he be "bold" about? John Forbes Kerry is "boldly" promising to bankrupt the country by pouring $1 billion of money we don't have into insuring the uninsured; surely Bush won't (can't) match him dollar-for-dollar in terms of such boldness.
So why is Karl Rove increasing expectations when he really ought to be managing them?
I don't know. Maybe he's just trying to attract viewers (especially conservative viewers), and he figures that it's more important to get people to watch than to actual deliver on his promise of "boldness."
Or maybe he's planning a truly "bold" stroke that won't cost the American taxpayer a dime (at least not directly).
Democratic Rumor? But of course this could all be a Democrat-driven rumor, designed to increase expectations and thereby lead, inevitably, to disappointment.
Democrats know full well how disappointing it is, in political terms, to not land McCain as a vice presidential candidate, having failed to do so themselves.
Update-- Jhaaaannnnnn! Aaron Burr predicts the Democratic response, should John McCain join the Bush ticket.
John Soonian McCain?
August 29, 2004
— Ace He's threatened to call for multinational discussions if his ultimatum is not honored.
But seriously, he promises to do "everything" to win their release:
"Backed up by this national unity, I solemnly call for the release of Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot. Everything is being done and everything will be done in the coming hours and days to achieve this."
It's probably not a very good or human thing to examine the political fallout from the kidnapping (and possible future murders) of two innocent Frenchmen.
But if Jacques Chirac actually appeases the terrorists in order to win the release of the hostages, well: John Forbes Kerry's already naive and childish talk of "our important allies" will become that much more absurd.
This could be an unwelcome September Surprise for our Highborn Hamlet.
WASHINGTON - There are only about 2.6 million of them, but they could hold the future of the nation in their hands. They are the undecideds, voters who haven't firmly made up their minds between George W. Bush and John Kerry. If this year's election is as close as expected, they are likely to decide it.
You know what else this election may turn on? Whoever gets more votes.
The above article requires registration-- you have to prove that you have a sub-70 IQ to access it. (Actually, I found a registration-free link on FreeRepublic; you can freely access the article now.)
Update: Turns out there's some fresh news -- and bad news -- in the article:
Nationally, a large Zogby/Williams poll of 20,900 voters found Kerry leads Bush by 50.8 percent to 46.7 percent among likely voters, with only 2.4 percent undecided or so soft in their support of either candidate that they could easily change. That survey had an error margin of plus or minus less than 1 percentage point.
Of course, that's Zogby.
(Brett Favre siren)
Wisconsin is Kerry's Ohio. Except with cheese.
Some call it irony. Others call it fate. I call it the Hubris of High-Falutin' Cheeses.
Also... Rasmussen shows Bush ahead in the Electoral College count for the first time this year.
August 28, 2004
— Ace ...to protest France's ban on Islamic headscarves in school.
Okay, let me get this straight: Terrorists hate us because we're arrogant, we're pro-Israel, and we're too gung-ho to fight terrorists.
So... um, why go after the French? All right, I'll give you the arrogance, but no one can accuse this nation of je ne se qua Jew-hatin' of being pro-Israel, nor can they accuse any Frenchman of having an insufficient regard for his own personal safety.
Maybe our "Chimpresident" is sorta on to something when he says they just plain hate us, and fill their maniac minds with all sorts of toxic lunacies that justify any violent, evil acts they perpetrate against non-Muslims (or non-lunatic Muslims, for that matter).
— Ace Different verse, same as the first. When the leak damages conservatives, talk about the damaging information revealed by the leak; when the leak damages liberals, talk about the leak itself, and how improper and partisan it was.
Related by "Shadowy Connections:" Hyperpartisan hack Josh Marshall -- just last week telling us that the official records should be taken as authoritative, and whining that we're dredging up 35 year old allegations from embittered partisans -- apparently sees no hypocrisy in once again peddling the stale and unsubstantiated allegations of a former Democratic Texas Lt. Governor against a young George W. Bush.
If the SwiftVets are suspect simply because they donated to and voted for Republicans over the years, what the hell do we make of an actual Democratic politician?
Let me guess-- his allegations are self-substantiating, right?
Incidentally... I think spying for Israel is a bad thing and ought to be punished pretty severely. Obviously, spying for an ally isn't as bad as spying for an enemy, but it's still a very serious crime. Junior-level staffers don't get to execute their own foreign policy just because they've got some level of official clearance.
My point isn't that this is some trifle that ought to be minimized. My point is simply that liberals never seem to "question the timing" of leaks that aid their cause.
I think all of this "question the timing"/"distract us from the real issues" crap is childishly partisan. Problems should be dealt with when they are learned of. If a leak brings a problem to the public attention earlier than it otherwise might have been brought, bully for the leak. Thanks for giving us an early head's up.
That's precisely the position that hyperpartisan hack Josh Marshall takes on any leak that helps liberals and hurts conservatives. If only he would take that position in a politically-neutral way as regards all leaks.
— Ace Plan A -- suppress the story and hope that no one hears about it -- didn't work.
Plan B -- "discredit" the SwiftVets using selective evidence and tendentious conclusions -- isn't cutting the mustard.
Plan C is now being put into effect. Remember when Clinton's own Plan A and Plan B stopped working, and the media began instructing us that lying was perfectly normal, natural, and excusable?
Plan C for defending Kerry is chalking up these starkly-different accounts to innocent and unresolvable differences in memories.
Who can say for sure what really happened? It's once again time to MoveOn (TM).
— Ace How did that dubious post-1981 citation get added to John Forbes Kerry's already-dubious Silver Star? The man whose signature appears at the end of the citation ostensibly granting it (post 1981, it should be noted), says he hasn't a clue who "awarded" Kerry this additional tribute. But he says it wasn't himself:
Former Navy Secretary John Lehman has no idea where a Silver Star citation displayed on Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's campaign Web site came from, he said Friday. The citation appears over Lehman's signature.
"It is a total mystery to me. I never saw it. I never signed it. I never approved it. And the additional language it contains was not written by me," he said.
The additional language varied from the two previous citations, signed first by Adm. Elmo Zumwalt and then Adm. John Hyland, which themselves differ. The new material added in the Lehman citation reads in part: "By his brave actions, bold initiative, and unwavering devotion to duty, Lieutenant (jg) Kerry reflected great credit upon himself...."
A tiny bit more at the link.
— Ace I'm trying to do some genuine reportial work. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it.
Basically, I'd like to speak with anyone who has direct, first-hand knowlege about how after-action reports are written-- my first preference is for those who've actually written them; my second preference is for those who haven't written them, but have been interviewed/debriefed by the person who ended up writing them.
Specifically, I'd like to know if (as I assume) the person writing the report canvasses the whole unit for what each man saw, and then writes that up, or if the writer can only report what he personally, first-hand, witnessed.
If you know, and you'd like to help out, email me at email@example.com. I don't necessarily have to use your name or otherwise identify you; if you want to just fill me in on background, that's cool. But I'd like to have at least a couple of people willing to report for attribution.
If you know someone who might know, and you think that person wouldn't mind answering a few brief questions, please let me know you have a possible contact.
I should warn that this of course concerns the SwiftVets story, so anyone stepping forward is actually opening himself to attack by Kerry supporters (i.e., the entirety of the mainstream media).
Oh, and I also have to say that I need some way of checking your bona fides. I don't want to be spoofed by "someone willing to help" who turns out to be a Kerry supporter spinning fables in order to discredit me.
August 27, 2004
— Ace Experts Suggest Novel Hypothesis: The French Hate Jews
— Ace Always hated this guy. Always:
Three years ago, the star of numerous not quite straight-to-video cinema classics such as "Hard to Kill," "Marked for Death" and "Exit Wounds" contacted the villa's owner, identified only as Edeltraud V., about renting the property. Offering â¬30,000 in rent for an eight-month stay, she accepted and Seagal and crew moved in for the winter.
Fast forward to 2004 and Edeltraud is still, to use the title of one of Seagal's own films, "Out for Justice" and still paying the price for the martial arts star's stay at her home. The landlady has once again appeared before a court in Berlin this week to demand damages of â¬170,000 from Seagal for what has been called the wanton destruction of the property.
It is alleged that Seagal and his crew went on a riot throughout the villa and "disassembled" doors, wooden flooring and wallpaper. It is also claimed that the "Under Siege" star and friends ignored the lavatory and urinated every where but.
The whole sorry business, she says, has in fact had damaging consequences on her own reputation and business. The villa was due to house superstar Tom Cruise while he films "Mission: Impossible 3" in Berlin but now, possibly due to the continuing furor over the Seagal case, Cruise has pulled out. The thought of staying in a house with alleged Seagal pee all over the walls clearly doesn't appeal.
I think that goes without saying.
Update: Steven Seagal, Master of the Pan Flute.
Well, okay, that's someone else. But Dave tips me that Steven Seagal, the first Westerner to earn a triple-degree black belt in Hubristic Ego, fancies himself a musician.
The music is very anodyne and pretty useless, but it is, alas, not as spectacularly awful as I'd hoped.
Can he sing? Not really. He sort of warbles in time, but again, I'm very disappointed that he's not worse.
— Ace Dear "Colin,"
I regret to inform you that I must decline your offer to "check out" your "hot new webcam." What you may do with your "buff, sexy young friends" is your business, but not mine.
Furthermore, I do not appreciate your unsolicited invitation to participate in "sexy hot web-chat or whatever you're into."
It's the "whatever" that especially bothers me. "Whatever" covers an awful lot of ground in a place I'd really rather not go.
I thank you for your thoughtfulness in offering me what you believe to be a "can't-miss deal." I wish you continued success in your endeavors to "provide the hottest man-on-man action available on the Internet" as well as "the world's biggest archive of candid photos of bi-curious freshmen."
Ace of Spades HQ
PS: I believe the photo you sent me, identified as "Blake from Princeton," is actually a shot of Sam J. Johnson from Flash Gordon. The "Flash" t-shirt is a definite tip-off, as is the fact that he's speaking with Max Von Sydow as Ming the Merciless (and not a "Discipline-Obsessed Spanish Teacher," as your caption mistakenly alleges).
I trust you will correct this misidentification as promptly as possible.
PPS: On the other hand, I find your offer of "natural male enhancement" intriguing.
Does this "natural male enhancement" involve guano? Because I've tried that, and the only thing that enhanced was the propensity of my dork to stink of batshit.
Furthermore, whenever I put on the cream, I notice that hummingbirds keep flying directly into my package. I don't know if that's due to the guano or the "exotic berry extract" lotion I'm also using but, either way, it's a tremendous distraction at work.
As you can probably imagine.
Assuming your "new patented miracle formula" contains only trace amounts of bat guano and/or rare Asian fruits, please send me an information packet and free sample.
— Ace Liberals are always complaining about (usually mythical) conservative charges that their anti-war and anti-American agitation hurts troops morale. They say, rightly, that one can't simply forgo one's right to debate issues of war and peace simply because such a debate might undermine troop morale; if that's the case, how could these issues ever be debated at all?
A good point, but then, they're usually attacking straw men. The actual number of times this charge has been made, in blanket form, against liberals by responsible and prominent conservatives is pretty low. Specific scurrilous charges which slander the conduct of our troops and brand them killers (as F9-11 and John Kerry's 1971 testimony both did) -- yes, that constitutes a slanderous attack that gratuitously undermines morale when a more truthful and reasonable argument ("This war is bad policy") would not.
But, again having it both ways at once, Terrezzzza claims that questioning her gigolo's war record is hurting the morale of our Iraq and Afghanistan troops.
Can't. Fucking. Have It. Both Ways at Once, guys.
This is a nasty habit of liberals generally, and Terezzza especially. These people whine all day about people "questioning their patriotism" and then they do precisely that when attacking their opponents. Terezzza goes from claiming that we all have the right to dissent without being branded anti-American to hinting darkly about "un-American traits" among some political actors (namely, her gigolo's political opponents).
— Ace If you remember, flight 587 crashed shortly after takeoff soon after 9-11. With vicious irony, the plane crashed into a neighborhood heavily populated by the families of the very firefighters who died in the WTC attack.
A man held by the oxymoronically-named Canadian Intelligence says 'Farouk the Tunisian' was involved. US experts insist there has never been any evidence of anything other than an accidental crash.
I don't know how all of this will shake out. Like most other people, I strongly suspected terrorism was the cause of the crash at the time; the government's insistence that it was an accidental crash only half-persuaded me otherwise.
I do wonder why on earth Al Qaeda kept its involvement secret for so long if they were responsible. They didn't take long to claim responsibility for the downed Russian planes.
It should also be noted that terrorist-types claim responsibility for events they had nothing to do with, like the August 14, 2003 blackout that darkened the northeastern corner of the country from Detroit to New York.
— Ace Kerry Mideast Advisor Promises Arabs Dramatic Change.
Here's what pisses me off: Kerry continuously promises -- simultaneously -- the same foreign policy as Bush and a radical break from Bush's policy. He promises continuity and change in the same breath. Again-- having it both ways at once.
If Kerry would commit himself to a single foreign policy (or single position on gay "marriage," etc.), we could have a debate on the issues. It would be productive, informative, and clarifying. But he refuses to do so. He continuously obfuscates his real positions, claiming to be both to the left and to the right of Bush at the same time, offering only a "Trust Me" platform.
Well, Senator, I don't trust you. And the American people are starting to wise up as well.
And on that very point, Stanley Kurtz weighs in. Kerry is obviously a McGovernite, but he's using his alleged military heroism to obscure that fact. (Actually, just like George McGovern himself, so we can say that Kerry is McGovernite in both substance and tactics.)
Correction: I attributed the second article to VDH. It was actually written by Stanley Kurtz. Thanks to keggin for helping me get some of this loose shit straightened out.
— Ace This story isn't quite going away. There is smoke, but not necessarily fire.
If the media dedicated 1/100dth of the resources they threw at the phoney "AWOL" tale, we'd already have a resolution on this. But they're not doing so, and I'm guessing that's because they suspect they won't like the resolution.
Update to the Update: I missed this. Drudge found it:
But the official records on Kerry's Web site only add to the confusion. The DD214 form, an official Defense Department document summarizing Kerry's military career posted on johnkerry.com, includes a "Silver Star with combat V."
But according to a U.S. Navy spokesman, "Kerry's record is incorrect. The Navy has never issued a 'combat V' to anyone for a Silver Star."
Naval regulations do not allow for the use of a "combat V" for the Silver Star, the third-highest decoration the Navy awards. None of the other services has ever granted a Silver Star "combat V," either.
— Ace Good Heavens, I could have sworn he dated back to almost 9-11. Congratulate him. Maybe even buy a t-shirt.
— Ace Them and me both. A useful roundup of the big poll news.
— Ace Florida Cracker remembers having to ask her veteran-dad about the slanders of John Forbes Kerry.
It's not one of her fondest recollections.
Linked by "Shadowy Connections:" Drink This finds the (not so) hidden similarities between John Forbes Kerry and Frank Burns.
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