1 Maybe the Aztecs were right.

2 hahaha... you never know, I guess.  If I were a Georgian, I would be planning to disable the pipelines Russia has (since their objective here to to control the flow of oil).  That would get a very severe reaction from Moscow (not sure how far they can escalate before going nuclear).  If Russia did use a nuclear weapon, exactly what would our response be?  Everyone knows we wouldn't retaliate.

America is so much softer than it was in the 80s, and we were soft then.  Russia probably was a little nervous that we would protect our needed pipeline, but we've shown them they can loot, kill, and invade with impunity.

There is one benefit.  If the world stands by and does nothing about this, then surely we can bomb Tehran.  Tit for tat.

3 Can someone please tell me why the 82nd Airborne or the U.S. Marines aren't kicking some Russian ass right now. Where are our carriers? Why weren't we prepared for this? We had to know this was coming. If we don't confront the Russians on this, Abkhazia will be Dictator Putin's next prize, then good-bye Georgia and Russia will have near total control of Europe's oil supply. Georgia in NATO? Nien! Gee, thanks Germany. Who is next? Ukraine? We used to have the balls to stand up to these asshats. I want to puke all over my keyboard, when I think of Bush's pantywaist response to this crisis. Reagan must be spinning in his grave. Some ally we are.

4 JL,

Look, this is a shit sandwich of epic proportions but the reality is we got beat on this one. No one is going to start WWIII over Georgia (a non NATO member).  Sometimes you have to take your licks and move on to the next fight.  As you can see from my post, I think that's the next question.  Georgia is gone.  They are going to have to get the best deal they can and hope but what's next? Do we draw a line somewhere and say, 'no further' or do we just keep getting bitch slapped by the Russians and say, 'thank you sir, may I have another'?

My fear is it will be the later.

5 JL, I can explain that with two words: Nuclear. Fucking. Weapons.

6 Nuclear. Fucking. Weapons.

Maybe this will wake up the fuckheads who think it's perfectly fine for Iran to have them, too.

7

Look at a map. There is no access to Georgia. Turkey which borders the south would not let us use their territory for the Iraq invasion and probably would not for an invasion of Georgia. The Russians control the Black Sea, that is where they have their navy.  If we used the Balkans countries like Romania we still have to cross the Black Sea subject to Russian interdiction.

Russia is large and maybe cumbersome but still has an enormous military. Plus they have air  bases in the area. We would be at a military disadvantage, especially when we have most of our army involved in Afghanistan and Iraq. Plus Russia is one of our supply routes for Aghanistan. The other goes through the Khyber Pass that is increasing under attack by Pakistani Taliban.

We still do not have the 6 divisions that Clinton reduced with the ending of the Cold War.

It is not that we are both nuclear powers but that we do not have good acccess. Plus the oil line is for Eupope gas and oil not the US. Europe has more interest in this fight than we do.

I wish we could militarily intervene but not practible.

 

 

8 Do we draw a line somewhere and say, 'no further' or do we just keep getting bitch slapped by the Russians and say, 'thank you sir, may I have another'?

If President Bush weren't so tired we'd be fast-tracking the NATO membership of any other former soviet republic who wants to join.

9 If President Bush weren't so tired we'd be fast-tracking the NATO membership of any other former soviet republic who wants to join.

There's also the matter the Euros. I doubt they want to pledge their comfortable lives to defend a bunch of small Eur-Asian countries, especially when Russia has them by the balls (aka oil and gas supplies).

Besides, what's a NATO pledge really mean? Look how quickly they bailed on their NATO obligations in the Balkans and Afghanistan.

Nope, I think we're looking at a couple of years (at least) of Russia expansion over parts of the former USSR.

10 This is a cluster fuck from our, and the Europeans's, POV.  Interesting that our CIA, again, missed the big moves.  Maybe they culd make up for it by teaching the Russians that Iran is not the only country that can make "homegrown" armor-piercing IEDs.

11

We did not win the cold war.  The communists changed their tactics.

 

12 I'll trade Georgia for Iran.

13 George Kennan argued many years ago in the notorious Long Telegram that the USSR was not a traditional nation-state. He argued it wanted more than just a belt of subservient states as a buffer zone. Left and Right still argue about this, but at the very least, the "dovish" view was that the USSR presented no larger threat than a traditional state looking for clients to surround it. That is the mininum we can expect now from Putin's Russia, and she will do what she can to make sure the splinter republics around her remain subservient. We'll see if she tries to expand beyond the former borders of the USSR. At least Putin isn't much interested in exporting "revolution." Just weapons to lots of nasty regimes... not sure which is worse.

14 We'll probably slow the expansion of NATO

Frankly it would be better to cancel the expansion of NATO. And in a perfect world disband the thing in its entirety. It does not work. At all really. All it really does is give the Euro-wienies a forum to 'play' at Military Things. But when the going gets tough (Afghansitan) the not-so-tough get going. To the extent that they won't even come out to play at night in some cases.

If Russia is concerned about NATO (and I frankly doubt they are) let's make friends and influence people by calling it a day and simply collapsing the accursed thing.

15 So, wanna bet the folks who maintain the Doomsday Clock haven't advanced the time over this bit of Russian adventurism?

16  Good news: the diplomats have made progress on...a sharply worded draft...that they will present to the Russians for their veto.

WAF.

17  Whoops. That was me.

18

'Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, "must go".' In other words, the Russians are already claiming Georgia as a client state.

On our side: '"We have no good options," a US National Security Council official told The Daily Telegraph. "We need Russia's co-operation over Iran and derailing that over a localised conflict in Georgia makes no sense. We just have to hope that diplomacy prevails. The next necessary step is for Russia to respond positively to Georgia's ceasefire declaration." '

Message from our government to our allies: "You fucked up! You trusted us!"

19 "my advice to you is to start drinking heavily"

20 Also, we are not going to get Russia's cooperation over Iran. Putin knows we are full of methane, ammonia and other smelly forms of hot gas. He has on the hook, why help us out? Much more fun to watch us squirm.

21 Interesting that our CIA, again, missed the big moves.

Why do those cocksuckers continue to draw a paycheck?  When we get shitty intelligence out of the Middle East we get the excuse that the CIA is still in a Cold War mode, only to find out that those senile fucks blew this one too.  Maybe they're too busy trying to throw this election to Uhhbamerr by leaking enough bullshit to confuse all the undecideds.  Fire Them All.

22 Hmmmm.

@ Drew M.

"Do we draw a line somewhere and say, 'no further' or do we just keep getting bitch slapped by the Russians and say, 'thank you sir, may I have another'?"

Right now the Russian Army and Navy are crap.  But they're working to improve them.  Next time we decide to fight Putin it might cost a shitload more than if we'd done it now and nipped this crap in the bud.

Because you fucking well know the Chinese are watching and they have a list of countries they'd like to find out actually are a part of "historical China".

23 The thing only makes sense from a money angle. So Ossetia isn't really strategic for Russia and the ethnic thing seems sort of a canard. But, you've got all the major players for the Ossetians - all of whom were Commissar-type security staff for the USSR, and many of whom ran away when the fighting broke out. They're basically stirring shit to make money, don't give a fuck about Ossetia at all. So its like a Russian mafia thing writ large IMO.

That is not to say we shouldn't do something. Maybe targeted assassinations of the shit-stirrers, but I dunno.

24 one supporting link
which I found here

YMMV, of course

25 Following that link Evil, I found this.

Something worth fighting over?

26

Actually, I think this will help us greatly in getting the missile bases we want.  In fact, the former Soviet slave states would be crazy not to get every piece of military hardware they can get their hands on.

Bush gave Putin a big "fuck you" at the Olympic games but Putin knows Obama will bend over and grab his ankles so all he has to do is wait us out... and hope McCain doesn't win.  McCain reminds me a bit of slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove (much more so than Bush does... accent or no).  He would probably ride along on the bombing runs just for shits and giggles.

Do the Russians have any assets that the western countries can seize?

27 JavaJoe - The Georgians are great people, IMO and should be supported. But it isn't a religious war going on.

28 Actually, I think this will help us greatly in getting the missile bases we want.

asl,

What makes you say that?  Putin has said bases for the missile shield will lead to a military response. Given what we've seen for the last 3 days, do you have any reason to doubt him? If you are the leader of the Czech Republic or Poland you have to wonder if Germany, the UK and the US will really go to war for you.  Historical evidence, both recent and and not so recent, isn't comforting.

As for the value of the hardware, they won't control it, we will. Also, the European components are aimed at missiles from Iran, not Russia. It seems they will be upsetting the Russians for not a lot of direct return (I don't think Poland is worried about Iran aiming missiles at them).

29

we need to send in troops as peace keepers. and dare the russians to attack.   It will only take a show of resolve and Putin will back down.  If he doesn't we have several fleets in the persian gulf a stones throw away.  We have 50,000 battle train and tested troops on the door step in Iraq.  Does Russia really want a regional war with the US?   I don't think so.  If they do it will be a regional war not a world war yet.  Of course with any military endevor it could spread I don't think a nuclear exchange is in the offerring but America needs to once again show its power and flex its muslce to protect its friends and allies. 

 

1948 showed what happens when Russian agression is not stopped.  50 years of war.millions enslaved.   trillions spent in military spending,   entire populations living under M.A.D. 

 

If America does nothing the baltic states are next, Ukraine, and eastern europe.  Central Asia will be ripe for the taking with all the oil and NG.   China and Russia will once again be at each other's backs.

 

30 The reason the 82nd Airborne isn't on the way to defend our ally, Georgia, is because Presidente Arbusto looked deep into Putin's eyes and peered deep deep deep into his soul and pronounced him a good man. Like Ted Kennedy. Another of his soul buddies. The GOP really gives us some great choices, don't they? We could vote for Gore/Kerry or a president who thinks the whoopee cushion was the second greatest invention ever.

31

We're not in there right now because we don't have a carrier battle group in that part of the world- you can't and don't project power without first having your air assets within easy reach- and also because (at least as far as the 82nd is concerned) their 2nd BCT is currently in Kuwait, according to their website.

http://www.bragg.army.mil/82dv/kuwait.html

As far as the Marine Corps is concerned- revert again to the carrier battle group remark, but also, at the moment, the 22nd and 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit are deployed to Afghanistan, and the 2nd is currently deployed to Iraq. That includes their logistics brigade, their air assets, and their command units

The simple fact of the matter is that even if we wanted to get involved, at this point, the callups would take better than a week, and you can't deploy manpower without gear to go with it. Our nearest carrier group is in the Mediterranean (the 6th Fleet if I remember correctly), and time enroute at flank speed would be at least 3-4 days. Getting gear to Georgia from stateside would be about a week at best, assuming that they could load armor and vehicles directly. There is still the issue of repainting them for northern Europe operations.

Not trying to be snarky, JL, just throwing facts out there... our forces are currently geared for Western Asia operations. That means desert. Georgia isn't desert.

I suppose that we might be able to rustle up some close air support aircraft, but none of our foreign forward bases will allow us to conduct even defensive combat operations, and the Georgian airfields are under too much direct fire to be usable.

tmi3rd

tmi3rd

32 From the article linked by Evil : ''...it is a fundamental principle of terrorists the world over -- set up firing points in civilian areas and then when your enemy fires on you, you gleefully parade the bodies of your own children in front of the television cameras. Kokoity's terrorists are following this same principle. If South Ossetia can in any way be considered a state, it must be considered a terrorist state.'' As for Java's photo, the question must be asked: this being AOSHQ, is he referring to the Icon of the Blessed Mother----or------ the attractive scenery in the background?

33 Getting a US carrier group into the Black Sea, would take time and the permission of Turkey.
Or with the Turks permission, we could fly out of Turkey... doubtful.

The Marines would go in quickly if Bush gives the order. (every Marine is a rifleman.)
We also have the 101st Airborne.

Tis, too bad the French and Germans opposed NATO membership for Georgia.

34 Interesting how events in that part of the world bolster the case for exploitation of our own oil reserves.  

35

And just to concur with Drew and RAH... NATO is a non-entity without direct US muscle to back it up. I don't have time to post the links to the OrBat of the other nations in NATO, but suffice it to say that they don't have the combat effectives necessary to handle the gig if we can't get there quickly.

Add to that the fact that it really comes down to these nations' willingness to commit to armed conflict (which, as we've seen, is relatively nonexistent), and Russia currently has carte blanche to more or less reconquer their previous holdings.

In the meantime- Drew, I'll be in your neck of the woods in December- looking forward to hopefully making your acquaintance then.

tmi3rd

36

By the way- I found a page at globalsecurity.org that shows deployment status for US troops... it doesn't paint a pretty picture for the ability to muster more troops. Like Marvin said, there's not a Marine out there who isn't a rifleman first, but we'd need to muster them first.

I didn't spend a whole lot of time looking over the site, but I covered the 101st for 2 years while living in Nashville, and they were deployed to the Middle East a whole lot in that period. If memory serves, they're still over there.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/boots.htm

tmi3rd

37 CIA dropped the ball again?  Big surprise.  The place was a frustrating shit- hole when I worked there during Clinton's era of neglect.  More worried about diversity training than accomplishing the mission of keeping the nation safe.  Of course, it didn't really matter since Clinton could give a fuck about the place, evidenced by his appointment of the dick-head John Deutch to DCI.  Vomit!  Further to my previous comment, some of the comments I read here have furthered my assessment of why we haven't made more than tepid bullshit objections to the Russian invasion.  "Georgia is gone", "Thank you sir, may I have another", "Nuclear Fucking Weapons".  Christ, do you hear yourselves.  We are talking about naked aggression here.  Don't tell me we can't do anything about it.  We can... but. we. won't.   This is because we have become a nation of PUSSIES.  There it is, I've said it.  Yes, I realize that Putin's (Medvedev who?)  Russia is no Saddam's Iraq, but we went to war for Kuwait, and they never did shit for us.  Georgia has had our back in Iraq while our Western European "Allies" ran for the hills.  The only thing that Russia has learned from this experience thus far, is that they can operate with impunity within their former sphere of influence.  Mark my words, Ukraine is next, and our other former Block allies have just learned that an alliance with the United States is apparently a one-way street. 

38 Oh...and you can chalk all this shit up to poor dumb Bush being co-opted by the fucking KGB weasel Putin. 

39 JL, after reading your posts, I'm curious about what exactly you did at the CIA...

...or would you have to kill me?

40 Can someone please tell me why the 82nd Airborne or the U.S. Marines aren't kicking some Russian ass right now. . . .

The reason the 82nd Airborne isn't on the way to defend our ally, Georgia, is because Presidente Arbusto looked deep into Putin's eyes and peered deep deep deep into his soul and pronounced him a good man. Like Ted Kennedy.

No, you fucking dolts, one reason why the 82nd isn't on its way to Georgia is that its just coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan.

82nd Airborne returning from Iraq

You people really are morons, aren't you?  Wow.  And you have no idea how stretched the ground forces are, right?   How Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld's fuck ups have destroyed American power? 

There are several other reasons why the 82nd Airborne isn't going to Georgia, including the ones the Germans learned in 1941-44.

41 "We did not win the cold war.  The communists changed their tactics."

You mean the Russians (and the Chinese) changed from communism to fascism, and resultingly got sneakier and more efficient.  Mussolini's key conceit/insight was that coopting and regulating wealth into the service of the state works better in practice than trying to steal or destroy it.

42 It is probably the case that if we went ahead and sent in some Marines and F-35s into Georgia, and killed some Russians, and Russia would not fight a war they would lose, and Georgia would be grateful... and many other nations would see the benefit of being our ally.

If we help Georgia, Poland and others will be much more inclined to help us.  If we don't, the world will know that we are no longer a nation that is relevant to their national security.

Not to mention that this is WRONG.  Russia is lying to the world about this.  It's stopped being democratic, has no free speech, and is enslaving other nations.  It's always easier to fight this evil early.  They are building up for a reason, and it's so they can hold their own if China or the US fight them.  Right now, they cannot.  We need to go crazy scaling out our missile shield, or at least tell the world we have, and go ahead and send in as many QRF as we can into Georgia.

this is a turning point for the next 25 years, and Bush has been chewed up so many times that I doubt he can face evil as well as he has.  We haven't supported him and given him slack, and no one else has either, and this is the price.  Bush's lack of support was likely a key consideration that is killing the people of Georgia (not that Bush isn't to blame by being so unable to communicate what the hell he's up to).

43 It is probably the case that if we went ahead and sent in some Marines and F-35s into Georgia, and killed some Russians, and Russia would not fight a war they would lose, and Georgia would be grateful... and many other nations would see the benefit of being our ally.

If we help Georgia, Poland and others will be much more inclined to help us.  If we don't, the world will know that we are no longer a nation that is relevant to their national security.

Not to mention that this is WRONG.  Russia is lying to the world about this.  It's stopped being democratic, has no free speech, and is enslaving other nations.  It's always easier to fight this evil early.  They are building up for a reason, and it's so they can hold their own if China or the US fight them.  Right now, they cannot.  We need to go crazy scaling out our missile shield, or at least tell the world we have, and go ahead and send in as many QRF as we can into Georgia.

this is a turning point for the next 25 years, and Bush has been chewed up so many times that I doubt he can face evil as well as he has.  We haven't supported him and given him slack, and no one else has either, and this is the price.  Bush's lack of support was likely a key consideration that is killing the people of Georgia (not that Bush isn't to blame by being so unable to communicate what the hell he's up to).

44

Wow, icus, my post saying where the 82nd was has been up for over 3 hours now, but I'm so glad you could ride to our rescue with your Obama-approved bicycle helmet and pink cape. Thanks so much.

tmi3rd

45 Have a B-2 fly over the Kremlin and drop leaflets say next time we come back, it's not nearly as pleasant as leaflets?

46

If you want to even up the score think Venezuela.

BTW, Russian web also reports that they captured a "Georgian" Su-25 pilot shot down ove Tskhinvali who speaks neither Georgian nor Russian, but only English. He could be American advisor, or perhaps an Israeli, South African, or British merc. Sites also reprot recovering other bodies of dead african-American troops.

47

First of all, nice to find a place where I don't find posts like "Russia is doing great" , "Georgia is an US puppet and deserved it".

Anyway, it is sad to see how the US is acting in this fuckup... I mean, a lot of countries are persuaded (or forced) into helping the US in various aspects  - Georgia sent troops to Iraq- and then get invaded and the american government just says "it's a very troubling situation". wow. This will surely drive the T-72s  out of any country.  And then people ask why America is hated, why no one trusts in the american government....well, this is one of the reasons.

I live in Brazil, and here (and in most of South America) it is common to hate the US. (I think it's that old strategy: we fuck ourselves, and find someone else to blame. Of course, we blame it on the country who's richer than us.). This is just another example: If Colombia (The biggest, and maybe only US ally in the region) get invaded by Venezuela, is the US really willing to help?  This kind of behavior just grow the hate against the US....

48 The proper US response to this Georgia thing is for the US to put ENERGY issues and our energy budget on  a NATION-WIDE EMERGENCY footing. The situation in Georgia is an energy-relevant topic, and the fact that it is not noticeably being pushed as such by the leaders of the country, sworn to PROTECT THIS COUNTRY from threats foreign and domestic is deeply disturbing. The top leader, instead, chooses to grace a militant communist country with his personal presence, instead of declaring a national emergency on energy and staying home to shepherd the country through the CRISIS.

49 Sorry Fritz... As Dana Carvey used to say, " Not gonna do it. Wouldn't be prudent."

50 I was wrong, apparently the KGB Weasel Putin is not waiting for Abkhazi to fall before moving on. The Russian bastards just said "Fuck it" and doubled down. Straight to Tbilisi. If our allies in Iraq desert us it will be because we deserve it.

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