October 31, 2008

Undecided Voters Lean McCain; Have +17% Favorable View of Palin
— Ace

Happy Hunting Ground?

Note that they are largely proto-PUMAs, too.

Who are they? They look a lot like the voters who've already locked onto a candidate, though they're more likely to be white and less likely to be liberal. And they disproportionately backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's failed run for the Democratic nomination.

...

Overall, the share of these voters—sometimes referred to as "persuadables"—has barely budged from levels measured in June and September AP-Yahoo News polls, conducted online by Knowledge Networks.

But the survey—which has repeatedly quizzed the same group of 2,000 adults since last November—shows considerable churning below the surface. Of those now changeable, nearly three-quarters said in June their minds were made up, and half said so just last month.

"These tend to be people with a lower level of knowledge about the election; they don't follow politics as closely," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor from George Mason University who studies voting behavior. "If they can't distinguish between the candidates at this stage, the question is if they will vote."

Election Day is Tuesday. The survey found Obama leading McCain among all likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Almost four in 10 persuadables lean toward McCain, and about as many are considering backing Obama, while the rest are either undecided or lean toward other candidates. Viewed another way, about one in every 10 supporters of Obama or McCain says he could still change his mind.

Even so, persuadable voters could be especially fertile hunting ground for McCain in the closing days of a contest in which most polls show him trailing.

These people... "These people." What a giveaway.

... trust Obama less than decided voters do to handle the economy, the Iraq war and terrorism. They are less accepting that the Illinois senator has enough experience to be president. And by a 17 percentage-point spread, more see Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin favorably than unfavorably, unlike the narrow majority of voters already backing a candidate who dislike her.

...


Just four in 10 persuadables report being contacted by political workers urging them to vote in the presidential contest, compared with just over half of those who've made up their minds. That could reflect the campaigns' targeting their resources to more motivated voters or to problems locating these less involved people.

There is still a lot that phone-banking or canvassing can do.

There's also a little that money can do. I forget who reported it, but the Republican National Trust PAC is planning to blitz their Wright ad in battleground states this weekend.

Posted by: Ace at 12:39 PM | Comments (59)
Post contains 453 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Just four in 10 persuadables report being contacted by political workers urging them to vote in the presidential contest, compared with just over half of those who've made up their minds.

The problem is, is that GOTV efforts by the GOP only call past donors or something, don't they?

Posted by: lorien1973 at October 31, 2008 12:41 PM (IhQuA)

2

no they build a huge database. The gop calls all sorts.

I think the final 72-hour assault will seal it for us. Mac came back. Just like he has his entire life.

Posted by: PPP at October 31, 2008 12:45 PM (zzms8)

3 If Mac pulls this off, he is the Comeback King...

Posted by: IC at October 31, 2008 12:46 PM (jZNCU)

4

When ya gonna put up the palestra.net girls video Ace ?

http://tinyurl.com/6y3tj3

Posted by: William Amos at October 31, 2008 12:48 PM (SpaTx)

5

 forget who reported it, but the Republican National Trust PAC is planning to blitz their Wright ad in battleground states this weekend.

Thank goodness and AT LAST! This should have been shouted from the rooftops from the beginning.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at October 31, 2008 12:58 PM (ujg0T)

6

I could still change my mind. Make Sarah Palin the Presidential candidate, and I will vote for her instead of McCain.

Actually I have already voted. I opened up my absentee ballot, looked for Sarah Palin's name and made my mark. I am looking forward to 2012.

Posted by: Harry at October 31, 2008 01:01 PM (n8RSd)

7 If McCain pulls this off, it has everything to do with picking Sarah Palin. Of course, Obama and Biden being such dweebs has not hurt either.

Posted by: Harry at October 31, 2008 01:03 PM (n8RSd)

8 So true.  Mac wins, and he has the Sarahcuda to thank.  She's not a drag on the ticket.  I don't know where these idiots get off saying shiza like that.  Irks me.

Win or lose, Sarah Palin energized me like I've never been energized before for any presidential election.  Ever.

Posted by: hockey2k5 at October 31, 2008 01:05 PM (L3UiL)

9 I think undecideds are largely apolitical and only pay attention to political news in the last days of the election. 

I think now is a great time to air Obama's connection to Wright.  It'll be new to them and a nice change from the taxes, socialism, energy independence background noise of the last two months.

Posted by: Justin at October 31, 2008 01:06 PM (iH1PP)

10 "I think undecideds are largely apolitical and only pay attention to political news in the last days of the election. "

Looks like the McCain campaign made a good decision to sandbag all the commercials till the very end.

BTW has anyone is a swing state seen the new Wright commercials?

Posted by: David at October 31, 2008 01:10 PM (HAdov)

11 I think the deciding factor with undecideds will be this:

The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know.

McCain, for all his faults, is a known commodity.  For all the media's admonitions that Obama has proven himself ready to lead the free world, he's still a blank canvas to most folks.   No record of accomplishment, ever shifting positions, and a Santa Claus list of goodies for all.

Once the curtain closes, I foresee a large majority of the undecideds holding their noses and pulling the lever for McCain.

Posted by: Baron Von Ottomatic at October 31, 2008 01:11 PM (Ulsfn)

12 The reason that people discount Sarah is that they do not understand her, they do not understand people like you and me, and they have no clue why anyone would be fired up by her. That means that the political elites are out of touch with people like you and me. The sooner we get rid of them, the better off we all will be. I say we start with Obama. I for one am convinced that Obama will lose on Tuesday. Goodbye, Obama. And good riddance.

Posted by: Harry at October 31, 2008 01:18 PM (n8RSd)

13

I have faith in the American People.

BO cannot and will not win.

God Bless John McCain and Sarah Palin.

I am a Marin County Conservative.

Posted by: surfer girl at October 31, 2008 01:19 PM (nZWfR)

14 At this stage, the emphasis is getting the base out to vote and less on making wholesale conversions.

Is it the right thing to do? Who knows, particularly with such a relatively large percentage of undecideds.

Posted by: Michelle's American White Racist at October 31, 2008 01:24 PM (NLtVk)

15 # 13, Hey MCC, that's a lonely position to be in I'm sure... I had friends in Marin when I lived in San Jose years ago. Talk about plant eaters.. There were batty back then, I can't imagine what they're like now... keep your powder dry

Posted by: Francis at October 31, 2008 01:24 PM (m4yXs)

16 Hats off, surfer girl. I used to live in San Jose, now Sacramento, and it's bad enough out here....

Posted by: Curmudgeon at October 31, 2008 01:26 PM (ujg0T)

17 Undecideds, bless their ignorant hearts, are going to go where the safety is, not where the "buzz" is. Oprahbama is completely overbought, too many magazine covers, too much hype, too, too, too much. Like New Coke, no matter how much advertising comes out, he will never persuade people he's the Real Thing. I'm looking for a swing of about 2-to-1 out of the 14 percent undecideds, giving Mac a real lead (with properly weighted surveys) of +4 to +5. Subtract voter fraud (1%) and cell phone users (0.5%) and you're at +2.5 to +3.5 for Mac. That's where the race will end up when the dust settles on Wednesday. O has no momentum right now. The economy is stable and M is pounding three or four subjects hard. O's out of bullets. McCain is still firing and the RNC is sending more ammo.

Posted by: Fresh Air at October 31, 2008 01:30 PM (SXkkC)

18 Hey Ace… “Undecided Voters Lean McCain; Have +17% Favorable View of Palin.” Not according to Dick Morris, baby… he says the undecided almost never break for the incumbent like [McBush] they go with the with the new dynamic leader…! Keep looking for the backbone and lack of confidence, I think you have; You just might find it… above the asse I know you have! Olde soldier sends…!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 01:31 PM (Z341S)

19

Made campaign calls today. Left messages mostly. But had a few nice people who would pick up mid message to say - good job, keep on, but I already voted for McCain. Had a very angry guy who said he won't talk politics over the phone.

Serious question here.

I hate telemarketing calls. I find it an intrusion. I don't care how wonderful of a product or service - don't call me. If I need something I'll go find it.

So, how is it effective? An undecided can be convinced via one call?

 

 

Posted by: Mainstreet at October 31, 2008 01:33 PM (8nB5X)

20 P.S. How is it that Oprah is supposedly leading when McCain is more trusted on foreign policy, domestic policy, viewed as having more experience, etc.? He isn't--and that's a hint at the Bradley Effect right there. People will answer the peripheral questions truthfully, even if they don't say who they will vote for.

Posted by: Fresh Air at October 31, 2008 01:34 PM (SXkkC)

21 It also looks like Obama stuffed the ballot box on Day 1 of early voting, because the voting has been trending McCain over the past week and a half.  Looking at the numbers McCain has Florida and North Carolina locked up*.  If there are that many undecideds and they are that lopsided its going to be a really good Tuesday.  The only reason we are going to be up late is because the media refused to admit defeat. 


*If you live in Florida or NC I'm lying the race is really close and you have to get out and vote for McCain.

Posted by: David at October 31, 2008 01:41 PM (HAdov)

22

Paying our oldest boy to man the tricktreat thing tonite. Already 10 +  door rings. Our others  just headed out for the night.

So we're going to make more calls. One question - is there a no drinking and calling rule? It's just a hypothetical question.

 

 

 

Posted by: Mainstreet at October 31, 2008 01:43 PM (8nB5X)

23 "At the height of the financial crisis, voters couldn't decide if McCain was really a maverick or just a Bush clone. But the spotlight has shifted: It's no longer McCain who is caught in its glare, but Obama.

As the Democrat moved convincingly ahead last week, voters began to seriously consider what kind of president he'd be. Bush and McCain seemed increasingly irrelevant as people pondered whether they really want to trust Obama with this kind of power.

By this point, the nature of the undecided vote has likely shifted from people who are torn between wanting change and worrying about Obama to people who have basically decided not to back Barack but haven't sufficiently collected their thoughts to come out for McCain."  Dick Morris, Townhall.com.
J_Gocht is wrong, Morris thinks the undecideds will break McCain at the last minute, FWIW.

Posted by: Brian72 at October 31, 2008 01:45 PM (h6lGQ)

24 HillBuzz has a post about a flyer McCain sent out in Pa. It's great, has pictures of McCain and Hillary on it with past quotes from each on it.
Obama isn't even making an attempt to get those dems. He is just assuming they are all voting for him.

Posted by: TomC at October 31, 2008 01:54 PM (NbR7V)

25 RE 19 and 24 - O has been the frontrunner and running for so long he is considered the incumbent.  He is also considered the risky change choice while McCain is considered the safe old choice.  As 24 notes Morris has been predicting that late deciders will go to McCain and if McCain is close to O after the Dem/GOP votes the independents will put him over.  And as has been noted umpteen times the late deciders in the Dem primaries went decisively against O - no reason to think the general will be different

Posted by: AWW at October 31, 2008 01:58 PM (rCL2S)

26 Not according to Dick Morris, baby… he says the undecided almost never break for the incumbent like [McBush] they go with the with the new dynamic leader…!

Not on Hannity last night.  He said they will break almost unanimously for McCain!  Dis information much??

Posted by: rls at October 31, 2008 01:58 PM (k4h7p)

27 J_Gocht is wrong, Morris thinks the undecideds will break McCain at the last minute, FWIW. Posted by: Brian72 at October 31, 2008 06:45 PM (h6lGQ) Brian you gotta spend more time watchin’ FAUX NEWS. Dick just reiterated his favorite meme this afternoon…! So have Zogby and Rasmussem… http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 01:58 PM (Z341S)

28 Brian you gotta spend more time watchin’ FAUX NEWS.

I watched him LAST Night on Hannity and he said they all belong to McCain.  Go peddle your lies somewhere else.

Posted by: rls at October 31, 2008 02:02 PM (k4h7p)

29 j gocht is just an old troll pet of allapundit's.  it appears that allah or ed got tired enough if it to ban it over at hotair.  it's really hard to get banned at hotair, so it must have really stepped over the line...

Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 02:04 PM (xyyHG)

30 I watched him LAST Night on Hannity and he said they all belong to McCain. Go peddle your lies somewhere else. Posted by: rls at October 31, 2008 07:02 PM (k4h7p) ---------------------------------------------------------- rls, last night was 24 hours ago... that is a literal lifetime in politics...! "Hang on tight to your dreams...!"

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 02:07 PM (Z341S)

31 It might have been 24 hours.  He hasn't changed his mind, and he is still pimping the Wright video.  I'm really going to enjoy reading comments on the 5th.  Hope you'll drop by....I'm saving some really special shit sandwiches for all you asshats.

McCain takes 40 states!

Posted by: rls at October 31, 2008 02:12 PM (k4h7p)

32 #30--Yah, I've seen ole JG for a long time, swear I read him just a couple days ago at HA, mayhap he really DIDN'T get banned?

Posted by: irongrampa at October 31, 2008 02:22 PM (ud5dN)

33

****Pennsylvania resident here: I have seen 5 replays of the goptrust ads in the last 60 minutes, esp. the jeremiah wright ad (with obama’s blue backrgound with the word ‘hate’ i think instead of ‘hope’).

I think it’s awesome. Last weekend = decicion time. McCain keeps it positive, 527s pound over the head with Wright.

 

Boom goes the dynamite!

Posted by: I'veGotABraceletTooJim at October 31, 2008 02:30 PM (JVOym)

34

This is just a question rolling around in my mind, and this same question (with the names changed) comes up in my mind at every presidential election since Reagan left office.

Roughly 45% of the population has pretty firmly decided to vote for McCain.  Roughly 45% of the population has pretty firmly decided to vote for Obama.  That leaves about 10% who are undecided.  That seems pretty consistent, election to election.  45 Republican, 45 Democrat, 10 undecided.

So we're trusting the fate of the free world to the 10% of America that can't figure out the difference between John McCain and Barack Hussein Obama, four days away from the election.

Am I missing something here, perchance?

Posted by: Keith at October 31, 2008 02:34 PM (Jdtsu)

35 it's really hard to get banned at hotair, so it must have really stepped over the line... Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 07:04 PM (xyyHG) Yah…funky chicken; I referred to the "Round Mound of Rhetorical Sound", truthfully as his own self and twelve hours later I was banned. Check it out for your very own self “funky chick”…! http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/21/

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 02:42 PM (Z341S)

36 36 J. Gocht also whines to other people to send me emails telling me I should listen to him. I'm having trouble believing this whining pussy was "Special forces" as he claims. Posted by: ace at October 31, 2008 07:41 PM (1WR4H) Hey Ace… it’s Special [F]orces…! Why don’t you publish your bonafides… instead of denigrating, debasing and defaming with pornographic remarks an olde soldier like me with different political proclivities than your own? A man who has proudly served to preserve and maintain your First Amendment privileges…? Say again...!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 02:58 PM (Z341S)

37 how about...
"...have a 17% NET favorable view of Sarah Palin." or
"by a 17% margin have a favorable view of Sarah Palin."

I love you guys but you damn near put me down for the final count with the way this was worded. 

In fact it could even be:  "...and favor Sarah Palin by a WHOPPING 17%!"

Posted by: DaMav at October 31, 2008 03:02 PM (X2qWM)

38

J Gocht - i don't fucking care what service you were in or not in. The fact is you just flat out lied about Morris's position expressed on live television just last night. That makes you at best a cock sucking moby douche.

Posted by: Have Blue at October 31, 2008 03:04 PM (WuPk/)

39 Posted by: Have Blue at October 31, 2008 08:04 PM (WuPk/) Lighten' up trooper. I was not referring to last night I was referencing his appearance today...

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 03:09 PM (Z341S)

40

J. Gocht also whines to other people to send me emails telling me I should listen to him. I'm having trouble believing this whining pussy was "Special forces" as he claims.
Posted by: ace at October 31, 2008 07:41 PM (1WR4H)

you know how many people claim on the blogosphere to have served? its most common w/ libs who pull the "i served my country and bush should be arrested" crap

Yah, I've seen ole JG for a long time, swear I read him just a couple days ago at HA, mayhap he really DIDN'T get banned?

allah needs one of his 15 fans, doubt he was banned hehe

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 03:26 PM (004wR)

41 41 Anyone up for doing a group teabag on my mouth? Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 08:09 PM (Z341S) Hey Ace… only limited personal would have access to hijacking my posting code (Z341S) and “more specifically”>…be able to embed it into a bogus message, on your blog… “The Ace of Spades”…> to specifically embarrass me as a poster on your site! So much for fairness and good will, on your blog… I still support your First Amendment privileges…Ace!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 03:29 PM (Z341S)

42 In the Immortal Words of Uncle Sweaty Teddy Nugent WANG DANG SWEET POON TANG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McCain Palin are going to WIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: PaRep at October 31, 2008 03:33 PM (dWdDN)

43 36 J. Gocht also whines to other people to send me emails telling me I should listen to him. I'm having trouble believing this whining pussy was "Special forces" as he claims. Posted by: ace at October 31, 2008 07:41 PM (1WR4H) Hey Ace… it’s Special [F]orces…! Why don’t you publish your bonafides… instead of denigrating, debasing and defaming with pornographic remarks an olde soldier like me with different political proclivities than your own? A man who has proudly served to preserve and maintain your First Amendment privileges…?

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 03:56 PM (Z341S)

44 </b>

Posted by: stace at October 31, 2008 04:10 PM (JO0c/)

45 So Ace… You not only post bogus responses from me utilizing my “Ace of Spade” “post code” (Z341S) but you also delete my considered responses to your written wingnut chicanery. Have you no faith in you defined political positions or arguments that you must belittle all your dissenting respondents by the most nefarious means of deletion. “Silence of the Lambs”? Your moral outlook appears to place its signal purpose as a castle of beach sand before the onslaught of a very high tide…? Courage, will and perseverance will see your victory---Australian Air Service!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 04:16 PM (Z341S)

46 Hey Ace… only limited personal would have access to hijacking my posting code (Z341S) and “more specifically”>…be able to embed it into a bogus message, on your blog… “The Ace of Spades”…> to specifically embarrass me as a poster on your site!

He's not the sharpest knife in the drawer is he?

Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 04:27 PM (PD1tk)

47 test

Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 04:28 PM (PD1tk)

48 test2

Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 04:28 PM (PD1tk)

49 the old weasel broke the bold

Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 04:29 PM (PD1tk)

50 So Ace… You not only post bogus responses from me utilizing my “Ace of Spade” “post code” (Z341S) but you also delete my considered responses to your written wingnut chicanery. Have you no faith in you defined political positions or arguments that you must belittle all your dissenting respondents by the most nefarious means of deletion. “Silence of the Lambs”? Your moral outlook appears to place its signal purpose as a castle of beach sand before the onslaught of a very high tide…? Courage, will and perseverance will see your victory---Australian Air Service!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 04:41 PM (Z341S)

51 51 the old weasel broke the bold Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 09:29 PM (PD1tk) No bold broken master...!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 04:43 PM (Z341S)

52 I once watched 14 episodes of M.A.S.H. in a row.

Do not fuck with this internet soldier. I've been there, man.

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 04:49 PM (Z341S)

53 So Ace… You not only post bogus responses from me utilizing my “Ace of Spade” “post code” (Z341S) but you also delete my considered responses to your written wingnut chicanery. Have you no faith in you defined political positions or arguments that you must belittle all your dissenting respondents by the most nefarious means of deletion. “Silence of the Lambs”? Your moral outlook appears to place its signal purpose as a castle of beach sand before the onslaught of a very high tide…? Courage, will and perseverance will see your victory---Australian Air Service!

Posted by: J_Gocht at October 31, 2008 04:55 PM (Z341S)

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