August 31, 2004

Turmoil in Kerry Camp?
— Ace

After the surprise Democratic debacle in the 2002 elections, some FoxNews contributor -- maybe William Kristol -- made me cackle with evil glee.

He said, "The boring part of the election is over. Now comes the fun part-- the recriminations."

As they say, it's funny. It's funny and it's true.

It's too early to cackle, but we can at least allow ourselves a cautious grin about rumors of turmoil and recriminations in the Kerry camp. And when I say "rumors," I mean that word as it is usually used in politics, i.e., meaning "uncontroverible fact."

Bob Shrum and Mary Beth Cahill seem to be on the chopping block. I wonder if Kerry will recall Jim Jordan, who's currently "independently" running a liberal 527.

Even more delicious is that Charlie Cook -- he of the much-respected although liberal-leaning Cook Political Report -- has completely recanted his predictions of a Kerry win, which were (of course) trumpeted by Oliver Willis and Josh Marshall a month ago.

I doubt they'll be saying much about this re-evaluation:

It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change. Three weeks ago, most political insiders in both parties gave Sen. John Kerry a slight edge over President Bush ...

Also: Read down to the Zogby polling (next item). Likely undecided voters favor Bush over Kerry by 35-10, when all the minor party candidates are factored in.

Posted by: Ace at 09:46 AM | Comments (11)
Post contains 240 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Ooooh... when Mary Beth goes, can I dance on her grave?

I know. I'm a ghoul.

Posted by: Cassandra at August 31, 2004 09:54 AM (H1llp)

2 Please, dear God, let him tap Jim Jordan to take over...that would just be pouring gasoline on the flames of the "shadowy 527 connections" meme, making it a liability for the Dems and a BIG story all at one fell swoop.

Posted by: Rocketeer at August 31, 2004 10:14 AM (0PSV4)

3 Semi-serious question: has the political "conventional wisdom" *ever* been right during the past, oh, 10-20 years?

Eight months ago, the conventional wisdom was that today, Bush would be desperately trying to rally his shrunken base in a last-ditch effort to stop the Howard Dean juggernaut!

Posted by: David C at August 31, 2004 10:27 AM (OeHNk)

4 "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change. Three weeks ago, most political insiders in both parties gave Sen. John Kerry a slight edge over President Bush..."

Careful what we wish for. There's more than three weeks to the election. While I'm liking the trending-- and expect Kerry to perform poorly in the debates, if only because he's an arrogant jerk who thinks he's smarter than Bush so DAMMIT, HOW CAN HE LOSE TO THIS BOZO?!?-- a lot can change before the election.

Look at the numbers, take heart in them, then forget about them. . . and put your nose back to the grindstone.

Arlington, Virginia

Posted by: Dave at August 31, 2004 12:04 PM (rV7Dk)

5 There is only one hurdle left to clear before the race is over and Kerry is done. The rest of Abu Ghraib has yet to drop. The press has been holding onto that story for awhile and they are still waiting to use it. Look for Seymor Hersh to release a book about it in October and "startling new revelations" that will really just be a retread of anything you could find out now if you cared enough to do the research on the Army report and the Senate investigations, but nonetheless "if you haven't seen it, it's new to you".

If Kerry is obviously spent by mid-September, and I think he will be, they may just sit on it till January or February and try to use it to handicap the Prez. in his next term. This won't work, but I still think that's the likely calculation.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable at August 31, 2004 03:15 PM (drNuT)

6 Given that the entire Kerry campaign are little more than soul-sucking Psychic Vampires, even if there is a shakeup and La Cahill appears dead as a doornail, I'd put a stake through her heart and drag her into the sunlight before I'd turn my back on her.

She'll rise from the dead and sink her fangs into the Bush Twins if she's not watched carefully.

Although after last night's speech, some people think that might not be a bad thing...

Since I didn't see it, I have no opinion.

Posted by: Cassandra at September 01, 2004 05:13 AM (n5ZPM)

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