November 28, 2015

Saturday Politics Thread: Turnout Trends and Strategies [Y-not]
— Open Blogger

I side-barred this the other day, but you may have missed it. Dan McLaughlin wrote a great piece about trends in voter turnout over the past several presidential elections. It's full of crunchy data -- follow this link to read it.

The gist of the article concerns the much-circulated myth that some 4 million conservative voters stayed home in 2012, leading to Romney's loss.

Here's what Dan has to say about that:

To the extent that any of these analyses are based on the proposition that Romney got millions fewer votes than McCain, they are provably wrong. What happened is pretty simple: some states and localities take longer to count the votes than others -- some big cities are notorious for this, some count absentee ballots slowly, California traditionally counts very slowly, and some of the jurisdictions hit hard by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 were understandably slow getting finalized. But the final numbers are not what was originally available in the immediate aftermath of the election:

In 2004, George W. Bush got 62,039,572 votes vs 59,027,115 for John Kerry.

In 2008, John McCain got 59,950,323 votes vs 69,499,428 for Barack Obama -- in other words, McCain lost about 2 million votes from what Bush had received, while Obama gained over 10 million vs Kerry's total.

In 2012, Mitt Romney got 60,934,407 votes vs 65,918,507 for Obama -- a million more votes for Romney than McCain, and 3.5 million fewer for Obama (but still up around 6 million compared to Kerry).

Presumably, some of Bush's voters in 2004 stayed home in 2008 and 2012, while others switched to Obama or one of many minor third party candidates. But even if we compare Romney to Bush, he's off by only a little over a million votes, not such an enormous number in an electorate of around 130 million people. And exit polling doesn't really support the notion that self-identified conservatives were noticeably missing...

Dan goes on to make some observations about what voters are up for grabs, including Evangelicals and Catholics, and working-class white. (I'd just note that American Catholics do not vote as a bloc. With the exception of JFK, their voting patterns generally mirror the country as a whole.)

This figure derived from Sean Trende's analysis shows which regions of the country had lower turnout (blue) versus higher turnout (red).

TurnoutMap.jpg

Dan concludes:

No matter who the Republican Party nominates in 2016, there's a lot of work to be done trying to expand the GOP presidential electorate, whether by appealing to new, young voters, disenchanted Obama 2012 voters, evangelical Christians, working-class white Northerners/Midwesterners, or some other group. History suggests that the opportunity is real, and the task is achievable. The electorate is never set in stone, the battle never over. A clear message, and an appealing candidate who means what he or she says and stands for something and can explain what it is and why, is certainly an important asset in that process. But even then, there's no magic formula, no cavalry of millions of conservatives waiting just over the hill to save the day, and no single issue or message that will flip the switch. The work will be hard, and will take energy and determination and a whole lot of one-voter-contact-at-a-time labor to register, to activate, to persuade. George W. Bush did that work to get Republicans 11 million new votes from 1996 to 2000, and another 12 million in 2004. Barack Obama did that work to get Democrats 10 million new votes from 2004 to 2008. It will need to be done again.

If you enjoy analysis based on data rather than "feelings," I encourage you to read this article.


Open thread for politics.

Posted by: Open Blogger at 05:44 AM | Comments (234)
Post contains 631 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Fresh one!

Posted by: ManWithNoParty [/i] [/s] [/b] at November 28, 2015 05:45 AM (7OJX8)

2 If only #BlackLivesMattered to people.

Posted by: Woolford Spaulings at November 28, 2015 05:47 AM (p5f0j)

3 o sure, just when i'm sharing "feelings", Y -Not

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 05:48 AM (jOumW)

4 The work will be hard, and will take energy and determination and a whole lot of one-voter-contact-at-a-time labor to register Yeesh! Count us out. We'll be at the club.

Posted by: GOPe at November 28, 2015 05:48 AM (RrDm2)

5 Crunchy data!

Posted by: Cannibal Bob Marley at November 28, 2015 05:48 AM (B1TZ/)

6 >>3 o sure, just when i'm sharing "feelings", Y -Not LOL! ;-)

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 05:48 AM (t5zYU)

7 some states and localities take longer to count the votes than others #BlueVotesMatter!

Posted by: You know the quote I mean at November 28, 2015 05:49 AM (RrDm2)

8 wo wo wo feeeeelings

Posted by: Bigby's Knuckle Sandwich at November 28, 2015 05:49 AM (Cq0oW)

9 All right people, let's get to work! This thread isn't going to go off topic by itself!

Posted by: StrawMan at November 28, 2015 05:49 AM (c2krM)

10 So TURN OUT THE VOTE And let's hope the commies and BLM assholes turn off a lot of people.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 05:49 AM (DUoqb)

11 cause I got willowed, from last thread.


Must have been an early case of Buzzion Syndrome.




Something tells me this will not be the last time this phrase will be used at the HQ

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 05:50 AM (jJRIy)

12 It looks like the progs hate the "working man" dem base as much as the DOPe hates us. The media has colluded to make voting R nearly unthinkable to that base though.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at November 28, 2015 05:51 AM (GDulk)

13 Ya know I never got bribed for my vote: not a penny, not a drink, nothing What am I copped liver?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 05:51 AM (DUoqb)

14 analyses are based on the proposition that {Romney got millions fewer votes than McCain, they are provably wrong}. What happened is pretty simple: some states and localities take longer to count the votes than others -- some big cities are notorious for this, some count absentee ballots slowly, California traditionally counts very slowly, and some of the jurisdictions hit hard by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 were understandably slow getting finalized. But the final numbers are not what was originally available in the immediate aftermath of the election: and so? If slow to count because They are designing the voting pattern to win. or to slow voters hitting the pollls because useless. why should we think voting is integral to actual winning or designed to get the actual candidate to win?

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 05:51 AM (jOumW)

15 What am I copped liver? Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 10:51 AM (DUoqb) shmears you on a cracker.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 05:53 AM (jOumW)

16 Big blue swath from NY to Texas straight through the country. A lot of people said "fark it" in 2012.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 05:53 AM (OpRWC)

17 I wonder how many of the GOP candidates - if any - make sure there are volunteers at their events registering people to vote? I'm always stumbling into voter registration at venues where liberal hipsters congregate - are Republicans doing the same? I'm especially thinking of Carson and Trump, who seem to both draw support from folks who might not normally vote GOP (or vote at all).

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 05:54 AM (t5zYU)

18 "I wonder how many of the GOP candidates - if any - make sure there are volunteers at their events registering people to vote? I'm always stumbling into voter registration at venues where liberal hipsters congregate - are Republicans doing the same? I'm especially thinking of Carson and Trump, who seem to both draw support from folks who might not normally vote GOP (or vote at all). " To be fair, people are auto-signed up to be democrats; illegals, pets, the dead

Posted by: StrawMan at November 28, 2015 05:57 AM (c2krM)

19 Here's a trend that wont stop: https://goo.gl/e9wvgp If I were in Israel, I would carry a knife and when seeing something like this, stab the bad guy in the back. The poor soldier really had his hands full.

Posted by: Bruce With a Wang! at November 28, 2015 05:57 AM (iQIUe)

20 some big cities are notorious for this Probably because they're waiting for returns from the rest of the state, so they know how many votes they have to "find". And in that vein, in addition to manufacturing fraudulent votes, I'm sure it's also possible to make other votes disappear.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 05:57 AM (sdi6R)

21 I'm especially thinking of Carson and Trump, who seem to both draw support from folks who might not normally vote GOP (or vote at all). Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 10:54 AM (t5zYU) Exactly and while I think BOTH of those Candidates will fade and for good reasons, I think the Republican establishment better be damn careful they do NOT allianate either those Candidates or their supporters or we will be conducting political suicide. Damn Careful. And I am sorry to say from what I am seeing they seem hell bent on doing just that...driving Trump into a 3rd party or at the very least driving his supporters to the sidelines

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 05:57 AM (DUoqb)

22 Fraud helped in 2008 and 2012.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at November 28, 2015 05:57 AM (u82oZ)

23 I keep hearing that Ted Cruz has the best ground game. I hope he's willing to work hard to get the Millenials. The ones I know do seem to be open minded and want to learn about candidates and issues. They aren't just Ready for Hillary.

Posted by: oldbuffalo at November 28, 2015 05:58 AM (/pOl7)

24 A friend of our in her fifties had a political discussion with her mid twenties college educated daughter yesterday. Daughter explained that for Republicans, it's all about a candidate with the right value. She says that for the Democrats, it's all about electability. From the mouth of babes...

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at November 28, 2015 05:59 AM (ptqRm)

25 Y-not last year outside DMV, lefties (pretty sure unions, but can't prove it_ were outsdie trying to register everyone. location wasn't very good, so i'm not sure about other dmv locals.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 05:59 AM (jOumW)

26 Fraud helped in 2008 and 2012. Posted by: NaCly Dog at November 28, 2015 10:57 AM (u82oZ) I don't think even Sigmund would be able to help the 52%...oh "Fraud" never mind

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 05:59 AM (DUoqb)

27 So the economy is booming too? Look at the data.

No small-government conservative I know voted McCain or Romney.

Posted by: Valiant at November 28, 2015 05:59 AM (2bqlb)

28 Enthusiasm is the missing factor. According to his chart, between 2004 and 2012 the number of potential voters who did not vote went up 11 million. Obama lost 4 million voters leaving 7 million people who chose to sit at home who likely would have been amendable to voting for someone other than Obama. All those 7 million would have been voters that Conservatives could have encouraged to or even taken to the polls had they been motivated with enthusiasm.

Posted by: astonerii at November 28, 2015 06:00 AM (o/DjS)

29 daughter and spouse got registered in OH at the lake. some event was going on.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 06:00 AM (jOumW)

30 Putting Terrorists On Notice, Workers Install A Wind Turbine On The Champs-Elysees Ahead Of The Global Warming Summit Paris turbine ISIS quaking in their sandals. Weasel Zippers Sigh

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 06:00 AM (DUoqb)

31 Big blue swath from NY to Texas straight through the country. A lot of people said "fark it" in 2012. It almost looks like Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Vermont skipped voting entirely.

Posted by: t-bird at November 28, 2015 06:00 AM (RrDm2)

32 >>Fraud helped in 2008 and 2012. Yea, I'm less interested in the couple million vote swing from Bush to Romney to McCain than I am in the 10 million vote swing from Kerry to Obama. Not buying that the God King was able to drive that many new voters to the polls.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:01 AM (/tuJf)

33 Over at MSNBC, the libs are going full bore to flog that PP shooting

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 06:02 AM (DUoqb)

34 Here's something I've wondered about. How many residents of assisted living facilities get "outside assistance" with filling in their absentee ballots. It seems like it would be a potential gold mine of "found votes" from among the elderly, either by intercepting the ballot from their incoming mail, or by somebody helping them "mark" the ballot. "Okay, fine Mrs. Smithers, I'll mark you down as voting for Mr. Romney for President." **marks Obama on ballot, seals, drops in the mail** I suspect my libtard brother voted for Mom the last few years of her life.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 06:03 AM (NeFrd)

35 Jackstraw, i think the 2008 vote was a picture of the times and propaganda the country was exposed to. everyone i knew was voting for obama as some kind of cool thing, Or redemption thing. of course union town so..

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 06:04 AM (jOumW)

36 and 'free shit'

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 06:04 AM (jOumW)

37 Here's something I've wondered about. How many residents of assisted living facilities get "outside assistance" with filling in their absentee ballots. It seems like it would be a potential gold mine of "found votes" from among the elderly, either by intercepting the ballot from their incoming mail, or by somebody helping them "mark" the ballot. "Okay, fine Mrs. Smithers, I'll mark you down as voting for Mr. Romney for President." **marks Obama on ballot, seals, drops in the mail** I suspect my libtard brother voted for Mom the last few years of her life. Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 11:03 AM (NeFrd) My moonbat sister did that in 2012 with my mother...voted for Fredo..Absentee Ballot....I went ballistic on her and threatened if she ever did that again to call the authorities..

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 06:05 AM (DUoqb)

38 Y-not last year outside DMV, lefties (pretty sure unions, but can't prove it_ were outsdie trying to register everyone. location wasn't very good, so i'm not sure about other dmv locals. --- I had the option to register to vote when I got my KY drivers license. Fortunately, KY requires a birth certificate (or passport) and a social security card, so I'm hoping that means the illegals and non-citizens are registered. But I've seen a lot of voter registration booths set up outside Whole Foods, Trader Joes, farmers markets, and at arts & music festivals... and they're invariably manned by young hipsters. I have no doubt it's Dems making sure they're there. GOP should have voter registration at patriotic events, NASCAR, family-themed places and festivals.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:05 AM (t5zYU)

39 Seamus we read about those homes being helped along at the time to vote -right.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 06:06 AM (jOumW)

40 I have looked at just buying Christmas gifts made in Israel this year. Found a really cool Mossad shirt my brother will like. Found something for the bff too.

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 06:06 AM (SVEy9)

41 What an odd decision to use blue and red for the voter turnout out map, and then to also make red mean higher turnout.

Posted by: at least it wasn't plaid and paisley, I guess at November 28, 2015 06:06 AM (ftJ4J)

42 I'm so sick of that "conservatives stayed home!!!!!" bullshit.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:08 AM (+eR2D)

43 Ynot ,yes i know they ask Inside DMV when renewing or other busienss, it was the outside actions that bugged me. and no way i was going to register outside because i'm pretty sure they (at that time) were fellow union members. so it's not like voting the right way wasn't already being addressed by fellow union members.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 06:09 AM (jOumW)

44 Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 11:03 AM (NeFrd) It is a problem. I've shared the story before of the mentally incapacitated man who wanted everyone at church to know he "Voted for Obama". I wonder if he was so excited because it was the first time he'd voted (he was at least 40). It made me sick because he is exactly the person that ObamaCare is meant to get rid of.

Posted by: Polliwog the 'Ette at November 28, 2015 06:09 AM (GDulk)

45 blue streak is where people are running away from NY to elsewhere. doesn't say how they vote. red west is kind of empty, so maybe they went there

Posted by: Bigby's Knuckle Sandwich at November 28, 2015 06:09 AM (Cq0oW)

46 The problem with this analysis is it views the Presidential election the wrong way. Some votes count way more than others. All the GOP votes in CA for example meant nothing. The votes in Ohio are a different story. Yeah, you need to get out the votes, and yeah the final total should signify victory, but your true goal is to win States, not the popular vote. Your plan should be to win those States and expect the popular vote to follow along.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 06:10 AM (MQEz6)

47 Don't forget motor voter. Illegals in many states can get a DL. Who do you think they will vote for?

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 06:10 AM (SVEy9)

48 What an odd decision to use blue and red for the voter turnout out map, and then to also make red mean higher turnout. Not voting has kind of been a core value of mine...

Posted by: Barack Obama at November 28, 2015 06:11 AM (w/iDp)

49 Maybe we can have an HQ voter registration drive of some sort

Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 06:11 AM (uZNvH)

50 >>Jackstraw, i think the 2008 vote was a picture of the times and propaganda the country was exposed to. >>everyone i knew was voting for obama as some kind of cool thing, Or redemption thing. Oh there is no doubt we were bombarded with pro-Obama propaganda in 2008 and to a lesser extent 2012. Watching some of the Obama crowds was like watching mindless zombies. But 10 million additional votes is an enormous swing when we are talking about a base of 59 million. I'm just not buying that it was on the up and up and the more the left shrieks about basic voting rules like showing a picture ID the more convinced I am that there is widespread voter fraud.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:11 AM (/tuJf)

51 Half of my family who voted for Bush in 2004, went on to vote for Obama in 2008.  Which is insanity.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:12 AM (+eR2D)

52 alright got to get sugared up kid out of this house

Posted by: Bigby's Knuckle Sandwich at November 28, 2015 06:12 AM (Cq0oW)

53 35 Jackstraw, i think the 2008 vote was a picture of the times and propaganda the country was exposed to. everyone i knew was voting for obama as some kind of cool thing, Or redemption thing. Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 11:04 AM (jOumW) I agree about 2008. The Historic First propaganda in the media was relentless. I'm much more skeptical about the 2012 results. If ever there was a "crawl across broken glass" election for the R's, 2012 was it. During the primaries, I swore up and down that I would never vote for Romney, but in the end I swallowed my pride and did. I can't have been the only one. I think that in the modern age of computers and census data, vote fraud has become a sophisticated science. You don't need fraud on a massive scale, not when you can identify crucial precincts and "fine tune" the results to your liking. And fraud on such a "micro" scale would be very difficult to detect.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 06:12 AM (sdi6R)

54 If you enjoy analysis based on data rather than "feelings," I encourage you to read this article.

I prefer WAGs followed by baseless accusations when things don't go my way.  I find life is easier that way. 

Posted by: pep at November 28, 2015 06:14 AM (LAe3v)

55 "42 I'm so sick of that "conservatives stayed home!!!!!" bullshit." Me, too. I don't want to put words in Dan's mouth, but I *think* he was trying to maker the point that there's no great conservative savior scenario because there was not a huge chunk of missing conservative voters. I believe Dan is leaning Rubio at this point, but I could be mistaken about that. So his point of view may be different from some of ours here. But the broader point, that we're leaving too many votes of various types on the table, is certainly true.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:14 AM (t5zYU)

56 blue streak is where people are running away from NY to elsewhere. doesn't say how they vote. red west is kind of empty, so maybe they went there THIS This is why CO is going tits up. People leave the blue states because of progressive crap and then continue to vote for progressive crap in the new locale and wonder why everything turns to crap.

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 06:14 AM (SVEy9)

57 off topic but current, I guess: from abc news, maybe Vic already wrote about this: The man who police say attacked a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado had lived part of the time in a cabin with no electricity or running water in the North Carolina mountains. His neighbors in Black Mountain said Robert Lewis Dear kept mostly to himself. But James Russell said when Dear did talk, it was a rambling combination of a number of topics that didn't make sense together and he tended to avoid eye contact. Two topics Russell said he never heard Dear talk about were religion or abortion.

Posted by: Mallflower at November 28, 2015 06:15 AM (qSIlh)

58 Maybe we can have an HQ voter registration drive of some sort --- Well, that's ensure that strippers and hobos are registered!

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:15 AM (t5zYU)

59 I just want to make sure I understand this.

After an election loss, it's all conservatives' fault for not showing up.

Before an election loss, we *really* all showed up last time anyway and no particular effort (beyond what everyone else gets) needs to be made to earn our votes.

Is that about right?

Posted by: Methos at November 28, 2015 06:16 AM (ZbV+0)

60 His neighbors in Black Mountain said Robert Lewis Dear kept mostly to himself. But James Russell said when Dear did talk, it was a rambling combination of a number of topics that didn't make sense together and he tended to avoid eye contact. --- I'm really curious about that animal abuse stuff that got acquitted.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:17 AM (t5zYU)

61 49 Maybe we can have an HQ voter registration drive of some sort Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 11:11 AM (uZNvH) --- Rather like offering whiskey at the polls, they way they courted the Irish Vote back in the day. I approve of this method. On a totally OT note, I'm listening to one of Jay Nordlinger's podcasts in which he asks a panel for their favorite American things: books, movies, novels, actors, food, etc. When asked for favorite contemporary writers, Charles Cooke gave a shout-out to Ace of Spades. Here's the link to the Ricochet podcast: https://ricochet.com/podcasts/america-a-many-splendored-place/ Nice for a Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Posted by: All Hail Eris at November 28, 2015 06:17 AM (8519N)

62 I would like to see the same map with data from 2004-2008. That would show where Obama's initial support came from, and then we could see where it dropped off the most,

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 28, 2015 06:17 AM (Zu3d9)

63 I'm not sure which is the more disturbing possibility: 1. The electorate is dumb enough to have elected BHO twice 2. The electoral process is corrupt enough to have put BHO into office twice.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 06:17 AM (NeFrd)

64 and of course... from IBT: President Obama issued a statement Saturday saying Americans should not have to "comfort the families of people killed by gun violence" any day, let alone the holidays.

Posted by: Mallflower at November 28, 2015 06:17 AM (qSIlh)

65 >>I don't want to put words in Dan's mouth, but I *think* he was trying to maker the point that there's no great conservative savior scenario because there was not a huge chunk of missing conservative voters. I believe Dan is leaning Rubio at this point, but I could be mistaken about that. And he was right. I bet you could make a good case that a large percentage of the votes Romney lost vs Bush were Latino. Bush was a lot more Latino friendly than Romney and the way the msm is framing Trump's illegal push Trump better be finding huge new pockets of voters because he is going to get crushed on the minority vote.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:18 AM (/tuJf)

66 Sean Trende's article is excellent, by the way

Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 06:18 AM (uZNvH)

67 If you were to believe the media the GOP has no chance of winning in 2016, the shooter in Co. Springs was a Tea Party religious gun nut, and Obama has been the most transparent president in American history.
Problem is there's a lot of gullible morons who actually believe this shit.

Posted by: Cheyenne at November 28, 2015 06:20 AM (iusVd)

68 After an election loss, it's all conservatives' fault for not showing up.


All you need to remember, is that every time the GOP loses, it's all conservatives' fault.  No matter what.  We hold our nose and vote and lose...our fault because we ripped the candidate too hard in the primary.  There is no escape.  The GOP can do no wrong.  Conservatives are the problem.

At least that's the perception I've been getting over the past seven years.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:21 AM (+eR2D)

69 President Obama issued a statement Saturday saying Americans should not have to "comfort the families of people killed by gun violence" any day, let alone the holidays. Which is why he's been studiously silent 2700 times in Chicago this year.

Posted by: t-bird at November 28, 2015 06:21 AM (+c55T)

70 And it seems I'm awfully grumpy this morning, so I'm going to go do something fun.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:22 AM (+eR2D)

71 57 His neighbors in Black Mountain said Robert Lewis Dear kept mostly to himself. But James Russell said when Dear did talk, it was a rambling combination of a number of topics that didn't make sense together and he tended to avoid eye contact. Posted by: Mallflower at November 28, 2015 11:15 AM (qSIlh) Judging by his mugshot, he's a barking lunatic who had no more political motivation than my cat does when she harfs up a hairball.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 06:23 AM (sdi6R)

72 1. The electorate is dumb enough to have elected BHO twice 2. The electoral process is corrupt enough to have put BHO into office twice. Posted by: Seamus ---------------------- I would say that the two are integral. Chicken/Egg. In both cases, though, they are self sustaining.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 06:23 AM (9mTYi)

73 And it seems I'm awfully grumpy this morning, so I'm going to go do something fun. --- We're going to decorate our tree today. Expecting several days of rain - yuck.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:24 AM (t5zYU)

74 it was a rambling combination of a number of topics that didn't make sense together and he tended to avoid eye contact. **** Sounds like the guy who killed my father-in-law, twenty years later. My wife and I were speculating about what pushes a 60ish-year-old man to do something like this, my guess is a personal loss of some sort- (evicted, elderly parent died, fired from some dead end job) rather than a deep-seated ideological conviction... who knows? We wonder if the guy who killed F-I-L is going to fly off the sanity merry-go-round again at some point, perhaps when his apron-string mother kicks the bucket.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 06:24 AM (NeFrd)

75 >>It almost looks like Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Vermont skipped voting entirely. Posted by: t-bird Yet in OK Obama didn't carry one county in either election. This is the bible belt and I was shocked at the number of people I knew who had a huge problem with Romney being Mormon. I don't know if that played a role in turn out or not. Didn't matter in the big picture as the state still went for Romney.

Posted by: Aviator at November 28, 2015 06:24 AM (c7vUv)

76 Of course a gope Prez is different than a Conservative Prez even though both wear an R tag. The gope magnifies the problem enormously. It increases the power of Democrats and dilutes the power of Conservatives. Ultimately, we see there are far more losing scenarios than victorious ones. We see that now. The gope has the House and Senate. In other words, Obama has the House and Senate.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 06:24 AM (MQEz6)

77 >>Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 11:21 AM Yeah, sure seems like that.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:24 AM (t5zYU)

78 Fuck the GOP.

Posted by: Cloyd Freud, Unemployed at November 28, 2015 06:25 AM (u5gzz)

79 This is why CO is going tits up. People leave the blue states because of progressive crap and then continue to vote for progressive crap in the new locale and wonder why everything turns to crap.

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 11:14 AM (SVEy9)



Ah, the "California dipsy-doodle." Exactly what happened here, starting with that misbegotten "Summer of Love," aka a siren call to every nitwit liberal in the nation. And they began thundering here in droves, converting a red state into a Red one.

Posted by: Jay Guevara[/i][/b][/s][/u] at November 28, 2015 06:26 AM (oKE6c)

80 I got willowed. but when you feel low, what are the things you do to bring yourself out ? Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 10:37 AM (jOumW) Willow, if you're feeling a bit depressed, there are a number of things that can help, such as tryptophan, SAM-e, and 5-HTP. Don't take them all at the same time. Pick one, see how it works, and if doesn't, try another. B vitamins can help tremendously with depression and anxiety, as can supplements like magnesium, GABA, taurine, and glycine. If I'm feeling down for no reason, I'll dissolve a 50-mg tablet of vitamin B-6 under my tongue. My mood lifts within 15 minutes. Don't be afraid to talk to your doctor about medications. If you have clinical depression or long-term social anxieties, some of the SSRIs can work wonders. They're not for everyone, and they have side effects, but I know people whose lives were completely changed by them.

Posted by: Michael the Hobbit[/i][/s][/u][/s] at November 28, 2015 06:26 AM (dPpmC)

81 We're going to decorate our tree today. Expecting several days of rain - yuck. Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:24 AM (t5zYU)


It's been raining steadily here since Thursday.  I think we still have another day or two to go.  Makes for a gloomy mood.

We won't get our tree until next weekend.  Hopefully things dry out by then.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:27 AM (+eR2D)

82 Is it cool where you are, DangerGirl? Might be a nice day for a fire and a cup of tea.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:28 AM (t5zYU)

83 And a few seconds of googling gives the answer. It was indeed the Latino vote that cost Romney in key precincts in swing states. http://tinyurl.com/ntxgf4e I would think this would be obvious from the enormous and non-sensical emphasis the left puts on trying to square the circle of illegal immigration. They want the Latino vote and it does matter. Whoever wins the Republican nomination better find a way to attract Bush size numbers of Latinos.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:29 AM (/tuJf)

84 Amnesty, liberal amounts of H1 B visas, spending level dials set on infinity. Sometimes data is just a historical piece of paper that was put in a time capsule along side the 8 track tapes and buggy whips.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 06:29 AM (6Xbsz)

85 Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 11:24 AM (NeFrd)

A psychiatrist friend of my father's who was quite good, with a lot of experience, thought that the death penalty should be used only for the criminally insane.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 28, 2015 06:29 AM (Zu3d9)

86 I've never stayed home for any election before, but I'm not planning to vote in 2016. If I change my mind and decide to vote, I certainly won't vote for any fucking Republicans.

Posted by: Cloyd Freud, Unemployed at November 28, 2015 06:29 AM (u5gzz)

87 Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 11:29 AM (/tuJf)

Is there a Latino bush joke here?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 28, 2015 06:30 AM (Zu3d9)

88 Is it cool where you are, DangerGirl? Might be a nice day for a fire and a cup of tea. Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:28 AM (t5zYU)


Yep, nice and chilly but we are unprepared and the little firewood we have is soaking wet.

Maybe I'll put the Yule log on the TV.

Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod at November 28, 2015 06:31 AM (+eR2D)

89 "Half of my family who voted for Bush in 2004, went on to vote for Obama in 2008. Which is insanity." Emotions. That is why Trump is likely to win in a walk. Rove really did a good job with W. Currently Rove seems to have lost his rhetorical respect for others peoples property and sensibilities. Power corrupts? Apparently most of what W said that mattered to me really didn't matter to W. Guess W was just saying what Rove's polls said mattered to others like me.

Posted by: been there at November 28, 2015 06:32 AM (PGh+Q)

90 >>It's been raining steadily here since Thursday. I think we still have another day or two to go. Makes for a gloomy mood. Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Hardline Sanity Prod We've had the same thing here. Miserable. I'm North of you so we have had ice is well as the rain. Takes down a lot of power lines. Switched over to rain a couple of hours ago which is melting some of the ice.

Posted by: Aviator at November 28, 2015 06:32 AM (c7vUv)

91 If you enjoy analysis based on data rather than "feelings," I encourage you to read this article. I like feelings.

Posted by: Morris Albert at November 28, 2015 06:32 AM (FkBIv)

92 >>Posted by: Cloyd Freud, Unemployed at November 28, 2015 How's your job search going? I can't recall what field you're in or where you are (or if you can relocate), but we can always try to brainstorm some ideas for you.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:32 AM (t5zYU)

93 I couldn't hold it against you #86. Just like I couldn't hold it against the Romney and McCain voters that stayed home. We NEED the "special" party to saturate our cities with ISIS hit teams so that we may finally see how special we all really are.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 06:32 AM (6Xbsz)

94 "Fuck the GOP." What he said.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 06:33 AM (6P3KB)

95 >>Is there a Latino bush joke here? To hungover to look. Thanksgiving is definitely my favorite holiday.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:33 AM (/tuJf)

96 Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:32 AM (t5zYU) I cannot tell a lie--I actually have a job. Poetic license.

Posted by: Cloyd Freud, Unemployed at November 28, 2015 06:33 AM (u5gzz)

97 >>I cannot tell a lie--I actually have a job. Poetic license. Phew! Glad to hear that.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:34 AM (t5zYU)

98 >>I've never stayed home for any election before, but I'm not planning to vote in 2016. If I change my mind and decide to vote, I certainly won't vote for any fucking Republicans. Posted by: Cloyd Freud, Unemployed We're all pretty dickless, so sounds like we have your vote.

Posted by: Rinse Penis at November 28, 2015 06:34 AM (c7vUv)

99 Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 11:29 AM (/tuJf)

First read Sean Trende's article, he busts open the myth that "GOP needs Latino votes in order to survive"

Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 06:34 AM (uZNvH)

100 Don't mind me, I'm just waiting for elbows.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy[/b][/s][/u][/i] at November 28, 2015 06:34 AM (LUgeY)

101 An awful lot of voters get the "free" benefits the gov. hands out.  Both in the cities and rural areas.   The Dems say the Republicans will take it all away, that scares a lot of voters.

Posted by: Colin at November 28, 2015 06:35 AM (T3Tpd)

102 #98.....Dickless...Rinse, Penis? What, do you keep in in a jar?

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 06:35 AM (6Xbsz)

103 Even if you can't pull the lever for the GOP nominee, make sure you find some local and state candidates to support. It really does matter.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:36 AM (t5zYU)

104 I've never stayed home for any election before, but I'm not planning to vote in 2016. If I change my mind and decide to vote, I certainly won't vote for any fucking Republicans. --------------- All righty , then. We're looking good!

Posted by: Hillary!, feasting on the carcass of The Republic at November 28, 2015 06:37 AM (9mTYi)

105 re 69: Chi Sun Times, Oct 2 '15: President Barack Obama referred to ongoing gun violence in Chicago on Friday, saying he will 'politicize' his push for more gun laws in the wake of the slaughter at an Oregon community college. Speaking at a press conference where he announced that Education Secretary Arne Duncan will step down at the end of the year to return to Chicago, Obama said "Arne is going back to Chicago - let's not forget, this is happening every single day in forgotten neighborhoods around the country. Every single day. Kids are just running for their lives, trying to get to school." almost every other link in the first two, pages of Google refers to early Feb 2013 or lat Oct 2015, but of course there's also Media Matters http://tinyurl.com/ocxyhwg criticizing Brit Hume for not remembering that Obama spoke about gun violence, Once in May 2015 and once in Feb 2013. And Michelle Obama spoke at a funeral in Chicage. Once. And Al Sharpton's group: "National Action Network Called For Action On Chicago Violence. In July, the National Action Network called for action on violence in Chicago and planned "to convene an anti-violence summit of national civil rights leaders" in the city." three times in three years. Wow. The guy practically never shuts up about it, does he?

Posted by: Mallflower at November 28, 2015 06:37 AM (qSIlh)

106 But if I can't vote for either Cruz or Trump, I'm sitting this one out. Can't see the harm, since I haven't received one single solitary thing I voted for in the past 20 years or so.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy[/b][/s][/u][/i] at November 28, 2015 06:38 AM (LUgeY)

107 >>First read Sean Trende's article, he busts open the myth that "GOP needs Latino votes in order to survive" I really like Trende as an analyst and I've heard him say this before but I don't agree with him on this topic. The Latino vote is growing not just in the raw national numbers but in key swing states like Florida. Democrats don't make them one of the central parts of their campaigns for nothing.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:39 AM (/tuJf)

108 Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:36 AM (t5zYU)

I am particularly discouraged today, and don't see how perpetuating a flawed system by maintaining the Republican power base at the state level is going to magically convert to change at the federal level.

With direct election of federal representatives, the dynamic has changed. Sure, redistricting is great to control, and states that are conservative will always function better than the blue cities, but DC can bypass the state organizations with the power of the purse, both with state funding and direct funding of election efforts through PACs and lobbyists.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 28, 2015 06:41 AM (Zu3d9)

109 103:  Amen to that.  The "feelings" thing is part of why so few people pay attention to local and state elections.  They (usually but certainly not always) focus more on issues than feelings. 

Though I have seen some real feelings-based local elections.  Results of such are evident more quickly on the local level and can be fixed faster, as a general rule. 

Posted by: KT at November 28, 2015 06:42 AM (qahv/)

110 107, Jack. Listen if the Latino vote comes down the way they all say it would, on the leftist/marxist/reason they left their own countries side then the last laugh is on them. I'm taking all my money and moving down to where they left. A nice casa on the beach. Even cheaper house helpers. It all sounds rather pleasant really.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 06:42 AM (6Xbsz)

111 So it seems that overall voter turnout increased by about 0.07% for the Affurmatif Axshun Preznit's historic first, then it decreased by about 0.02% for his follow on, historic second. But yet the number of voters for the 'only electable moderate' from the GOPe has declined in each election after Boooooosh. GOPe delenda est.

Posted by: CrocthetyOldJarhead at November 28, 2015 06:44 AM (i0ykY)

112 >>I'm taking all my money and moving down to where they left. A nice casa on the beach. Even cheaper house helpers. It all sounds rather pleasant really. Go to Chile. Nice beach towns and the least corrupt country I've encountered down there. Most prosperous too. Funny how that works out.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 06:44 AM (/tuJf)

113 103 Even if you can't pull the lever for the GOP nominee, make sure you find some local and state candidates to support. It really does matter.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:36 AM (t5zYU)

yes!!! i may not vote for a candidate for president but i'll definitely vote in the other races.......

Posted by: phoenixgirl, i was born a rebel at November 28, 2015 06:45 AM (0O7c5)

114 I am particularly discouraged today, and don't see how perpetuating a flawed system by maintaining the Republican power base at the state level is going to magically convert to change at the federal level. --- Well, you are boned, CBD. And I agree that it is nigh on impossible for the states to "manage up" and create change at the Federal level. But sitting here in Kentucky, I expect some improvement on our economy from our GOP governor (even though I didn't find him to be a particularly impressive candidate) and, should the impossible happen and a GOPer become POTUS, having a Republican governor should also be a benefit. I assume even a crappy GOP POTUS would roll back much of Obama's war on coal, for one thing.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:45 AM (t5zYU)

115 Trump wins because of the One issue Illegals Go GOPe! and don't come back... It's easy to see that a lot of moderates and some democrats are in the Trump bandwagon because they know illegals=voter fraud Trumps plans will also make a big difference by 2020, once he is firmly encamped in the big comfy chair.

Posted by: Palmetto Primary at November 28, 2015 06:45 AM (qCxUV)

116 "Whoever wins the Republican nomination better find a way to attract Bush size numbers of Latinos." Nope. The way to win is marginalize the communists, budget cutters, social conservatives, libertarians, free traders and so forth. Doesn't matter what you do once you are in power. GOPe and DNC are pooping their pants if Trump is really being endorsed by black churches.

Posted by: just saying at November 28, 2015 06:49 AM (PGh+Q)

117 I'm sorta with Backwards Boy on this. I have voted in every local, state and national election since I was able to vote. It's gotten us to where we are today. A Republic if you can keep it. How do you stop from going down the swirling water in the bowl?

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 06:49 AM (SVEy9)

118
   Now I get to beat my little drum.

   Certainly, change is required, we all know this.

   BUT  it must start at the local level.  I'm talking city council, supervisor, school board,etc.

  All flows from this.

  Think of it as OUR "long march through the institutions"--just as the left did.

  It will require each of us, in whatever way we can, no matter how seemingly insignificant to effect this change.

 So become involved however you can manage.


Posted by: irongrampa at November 28, 2015 06:49 AM (jeCnD)

119 BUT it must start at the local level. I'm talking city council, supervisor, school board,etc. All flows from this. --- Although I was pretty disillusioned by the state GOP in Utah -- a lot of petty politics and Big Government masquerading as conservatism -- I still agree. If nothing else, having some GOP representation in state and local governments makes it easier to pull the lever for a Republican in national elections, because they (GOPers) are harder to "otherize" as scary demons when voters actually see them at work on local issues. At least, that's how I see it. Gov. Hogan in Maryland is doing a great service just by being a Republican and, so far anyway, a popular one with both Rs and Ds in his state.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 06:53 AM (t5zYU)

120 One more note about he McCain v Romney votes.   I didn't see any reference to the increase in voter registration or population.



Romney's lead over McCain could easily be explained as the same % of a larger voting pool.




In other words, the data is crap without more data.  Aggregate analyses like this usually gloss over a lot of variables.

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 06:54 AM (jJRIy)

121
Dan McLaughlin
even if we compare Romney to Bush, he's off by only a little over a million votes, not such an enormous number in an electorate of around 130 million people.



Fatal analytical flaw*. Even in a blow out election, say 1988, the popular vote difference between the two candidates is only 7 million or so. Being a million lower than a recent previous candidate is pretty significant.

*Oh, RedState.  Well then....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 06:54 AM (kdS6q)

122 But sitting here in Kentucky, I expect some improvement on our economy from our GOP governor ------------------ Here in NC, the assumption of power by Republicans (after 150 years of Dem control) has wrought very positive changes of all kinds. The media and unions rail against it all, but employment is up, debt is down, taxes are down. The Governor has even seen to the elimination of some 'Studies' programs in state universities. Our biggest snag is that a long-term Dem AG is still in office, and refuses to act to enforce legislation, and even files counter-suits. He is Eric Holder, writ small. This guy has unending support from the media and unions, and will run for Governor next cycle.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 06:56 AM (9mTYi)

123 We only win if Hillary is indicted.  Trump is a sure loser.  Think Ross Perot.  A small number, but enough to elect Bill Clinton.



Trumpiods are going to love Obama III, AKA Hillary.

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 06:57 AM (jJRIy)

124 "GOPe and DNC are pooping their pants if Trump is really being endorsed by black churches." I love the story at Drudge about the GOPe in full-on panic about Trump. Hah! The man is an executive. He executes and knows how to get results. He's striking a chord.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 06:57 AM (Yu10y)

125 This guy has unending support from the media and unions, and will run for Governor next cycle. Posted by: Mike Hammer ---------------- Let me add, when people say "I'll sit out the election..", that is when local control is lost.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 06:58 AM (9mTYi)

126 @  119

    Here in my area, we're seeing the :good ol' boy" infrastructure crumble, through attrition plus some really good young blood.

 A ways to go yet, but you can see what will happen IF the effort is sustained.

Posted by: irongrampa at November 28, 2015 06:59 AM (jeCnD)

127 Nip, we know you love Jeb.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 06:59 AM (BEtWp)

128  The media and unions rail against it all, but employment is up, debt is down, taxes are down. The Governor has even seen to the elimination of some 'Studies' programs in state universities.



Could California borrow this guy for, say, the next 50 years or so?

Posted by: Jay Guevara[/i][/b][/s][/u] at November 28, 2015 06:59 AM (oKE6c)

129 This guy has unending support from the media and unions, and will run for Governor next cycle.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 11:56 AM (9mTYi)


Hammer, I have known him for thirty years, and he's been running for governor for all those years.



He is an arrogant whim.  He has done one thing right in all those years.



Dismissed the false rape charges against The Duke Four.   Bet the Blacks won't forget that, and we'll help them remember, cause BLM!

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 06:59 AM (jJRIy)

130 "Trumpiods are going to love Obama III, AKA Hillary. " Pssstt, there is only an Obama 2 version due to the feckless, backstabbing, enablers known as the GOPe.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 07:00 AM (6Xbsz)

131 127 Nip, we know you love Jeb.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 11:59 AM (BEtWp)


I'd love him to take his Mexican wife back to FL and stay.


I am starting to get "Cruz Fever"

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:00 AM (jJRIy)

132 A ways to go yet, but you can see what will happen IF the effort is sustained. Posted by: irongrampa --------------------- Clearly you do not understand. Staying home and registering a 'protest' by not voting, will bring about positive change! /sarc

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 07:01 AM (9mTYi)

133 He is an arrogant whim. He has done one thing right in all those years. ----------------- Of course. But, as we both know, the Dem power structure/money will back him to the hilt. Expect endorsements by all of the major newspapers.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 07:03 AM (9mTYi)

134 We have nothing to fear from illegal voters.

Posted by: Ready For Jeb!!11!! at November 28, 2015 07:03 AM (Dwehj)

135 ty Mike, i posty noted some of your suggestions, maybe it will help. --------------------- But sitting here in Kentucky, I expect some improvement on our economy from our GOP governor (even though I didn't find him to be a particularly impressive candidate) Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 11:45 AM (t5zYU) You moved again?

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:04 AM (jOumW)

136 "I am starting to get "Cruz Fever" Uh. Oh.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 07:04 AM (G9dfH)

137
Staying home and registering a 'protest' by not voting, will bring about positive change!


Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 12:01 PM (9mTYi)



Whenever I hear that threat, if we don't get our man, we won't vote, I am reminded of this.






http://tinyurl.com/m8nggap

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:04 AM (jJRIy)

138 Did someone mention the Latino vote? Aye, yay yay yay yay yay!!!

Posted by: El Gobernador Jeb Bush at November 28, 2015 07:05 AM (RU5ki)

139 Out. bbl.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 07:05 AM (9mTYi)

140 >>You moved again? Yep. Five years in Utah, time to move on. Got here at the end of the summer.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 07:05 AM (t5zYU)

141 gak, let's not ask who's voting for whom or not voting Yet! we have mths ahead to trash eachothers thoughts!

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:05 AM (jOumW)

142 Of course. But, as we both know, the Dem power structure/money will back him to the hilt. Expect endorsements by all of the major newspapers.

Posted by: Mike Hammer, etc., etc at November 28, 2015 12:03 PM (9mTYi)


Why do you think the McClathy papers have been working so hard to find dirt on Pat?   They have already run three trumped up BS stories.

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:07 AM (jJRIy)

143 Yep. Five years in Utah, time to move on. Got here at the end of the summer. Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 12:05 PM (t5zYU) i hope you love it there, i visited there when spouse was building buildings. but very short trip. much like ohio. still 5 years is time to move on? i cry everytime i move. i might like moving if i could move to a local i actually liked.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:07 AM (jOumW)

144 How do you stop from going down the swirling water in the bowl? **** I believe it was Edgar Allen Poe in Descent Into a Maelstrom who said, "Hang onto the nearest flotation device."

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:07 AM (NeFrd)

145 Whatever happened to wheatie? I miss wheatie.

Posted by: Ronster at November 28, 2015 07:07 AM (mUa7N)

146 ronster me too, she was smart . maybe burn out.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:08 AM (jOumW)

147 "If you enjoy analysis based on data rather than "feelings," I encourage you to read this article. " Yet another reason why we lose elections. Data doesn't get a voter to the polls to mark the ballot. 'Feelings' trump everything. It's emotion that drives the masses, and refusing to play to the emotions of the people voting for you is a guaranteed loss. Hire all the statisticians, accountants, and quantitative analysts you want, it's the emotions of the speech writer and the credibility of the candidate that wins the election. Present an ideology the people want to believe in, and do it with sincerity. Every winning presidential election, going back to Jefferson and Adams prove that.

Posted by: Woolford Spaulings at November 28, 2015 07:09 AM (0PKcc)

148 Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 28, 2015 11:41 AM (Zu3d9) Yeah.... I'm in California... like it matters how I vote...

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 07:11 AM (qh617)

149 Someday even Chihuahuas will be able to vote.

Posted by: Ready For Jeb!!11!! at November 28, 2015 07:11 AM (Dwehj)

150 Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 12:07 PM (NeFrd) roflmao. I needed that. Thanks Seamus.

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 07:12 AM (SVEy9)

151 "Cruise Fever" There's a code for that: V91.01XA -- Burn due to passenger ship on fire, initial encounter

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:12 AM (NeFrd)

152 test number 3

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 07:12 AM (MQEz6)

153 Woolford, yet that appeal gor Obama, so i get that perhaps appealing to reason. law. fidelity to the reason america was better than other countries. we can reason the ideals without emotionalism, we truly do have a great idea, rather than why socialism, communism isn't a great deal , because hardship and death follow.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:13 AM (jOumW)

154
Dissecting Dan McLaughlin further, his is a "feelings" argument. Forget turnout of your base and Steiner for the gay Hispanic millennials that are just ripe for GOPe outreach.

That's what the party says every election, read the 2012 GOP after action report, because it loaths the unexciting white working middle class voters that make up it's base, and who's interests are opposed to the party's big government, corporatist, internationalist and open borders goals.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 07:13 AM (kdS6q)

155 okay, that's better

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 07:13 AM (MQEz6)

156 The first thing 'I' would push.... would be to get rid of the winner take all crap for Electoral Votes... Make each Congressional district its own mini election.... with whoever wins the State getting the votes for the Senators... I'm tired of my vote not counting at all, even though this is a conservative district... I'm tired of elections being won by catering to the few 'swing' states... and thus being controlled by the special interests or minorities within those States...

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 07:13 AM (qh617)

157 >>5 years is time to move on? >> >>i cry everytime i move. My husband had kind of accomplished what he could where he was AND he was really being poorly compensated. New job is a definite step up. Plus, I wanted to be closer to my family. Not loving the humidity, but otherwise enjoying ourselves. People are very welcoming. More relaxed culture here. Moving blows chunks, but our new house is lovely, so that helps ease the pain.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 07:14 AM (t5zYU)

158 'was'.. sheesh a freud moment.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:14 AM (jOumW)

159 hate having to get out of bed to pee. Wish I could just use a jar, like a guy.

Posted by: Hillary Clinton at November 28, 2015 07:15 AM (B1TZ/)

160 -
159 hate having to get out of bed to pee. Wish I could just use a jar, like a guy. Posted by: Hillary Clinton at November 28, 2015 12:15 PM

-------------

Hi there.

Posted by: Depends at November 28, 2015 07:16 AM (DtNNC)

161
Whatever happened to wheatie? I miss wheatie.
Posted by: Ronster




"Oh, wheatie... won't see him no more."

*stirs spaghetti sauce*

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 07:17 AM (kdS6q)

162 new house is lovely... i get that. buti hate the making the house Mine , years of work, then moving. i want to get old and sit in a rocking chair, i want my home to have memories. but i understand the thrill of the new challenge . your outlook on finding new treasures to see is probably much better than my want of permanence .

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:18 AM (jOumW)

163 Posted by: Hillary Clinton at November 28, 2015 12:15 PM **** There's a code for that: ICD-10 Code F98.0 -- enuresis not due to a substance or physiologic condition.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:18 AM (NeFrd)

164 COME ON PEOPLE. If the GOPe gets Kasich or Rubio nominated you need to make some kind of grand futile gesture not stay home. Go and vote for the Constitution Party candidate. I'm convinced that only a significant swath of people voting for outsider parties could ever get the attention of the GOPe and beltway pundits. I do also suspect its too late to stop the runaway train before it goes over the cliff so not to guilt trip folks but I just can't understand staying home vs going out and flipping the bird in their faces. And who knows maybe primary voters will be able to do an end run around the GOPe. Its not like GOPe wanted McCain in 2008,GOPe wanted Romney then and the MFM fooled people into thinking that a maverick was the only chance to defeat the BDS sentiments.

Posted by: PaleRider at November 28, 2015 07:19 AM (K7DqM)

165 A successful campaign has a good mix of emotional appeal and rational appeal. Each one can help the other. Conservatives have the worst task to face. They have to overcome the appeal of free shit, bigotry, and Communist propaganda. No easy task these days.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 07:19 AM (MQEz6)

166 Not buying that the God King was able to drive that many new voters to the polls.

Really, you wouldn't think you could bus that many Somalians on the turnpike in one day but quien sabe.

Posted by: Kasich for Toll Road Commissioner[/i][/b][/s] at November 28, 2015 07:19 AM (DL2i+)

167 Ya, well, Robert McNamara and the wizz kids sure won the body count contest in South Vietnam. Too bad they lost the information war back in the states.

Posted by: Woolford Spaulings at November 28, 2015 07:20 AM (0PKcc)

168 wheatie was a guy? i hate that often i cannot tell. which is why pantless matters i suppose.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:20 AM (jOumW)

169 How many votes did Santa Claus get? The voters are like 8 year olds who want "mines" and to hell with "yours". All the analysis and number crunching won't change a darn thing.

Posted by: Hairyback Guy at November 28, 2015 07:20 AM (ej1L0)

170 i want to get old and sit in a rocking chair, **** Yep, there's a code for that too. ICD-10 Code F98.4 -- Stereotyped movement disorders (repetitive rocking movements)

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:21 AM (NeFrd)

171 Let me explain the difference between the two parties, if i may. It can all be summed up by the shape and meanings of the letters "D" and "R". Looking at the letter D you will notice a line, aka, The Wall going vertically with a containment loop moving all the way from the top to the bottom of the wall on the right hand side. The meaning is obvious, EVERYONE rams their heads into the wall, follows the containment loop around to endlessly slam their heads into the wall. They do this for what the tell you is for the common good. The letter "R" if you look at it is exactly the same at the top half of the letter and works just like the "D" but on a smaller scale. The notable exception is the diagonal line that moves from the mini containment area down and to the right. This is known as the "Chute". The Chute has one very important function for the "R". It's where they flush the voters that they lied too time and time and time again so that their R could be a smaller version of the D.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 07:21 AM (6Xbsz)

172 106 Really?  A prohibition on gun confiscation isn't something you wanted??? A ban on partial-birth abortion isn't something you wanted???
Wow

Posted by: MAx at November 28, 2015 07:22 AM (LAliD)

173 "i get that. buti hate the making the house Mine , years of work, then moving. " Yeah, that's tiring. Also pricey. We had just replaced all of the major systems in the old house. But we were not getting ahead financially and there were no prospects of that happening. We're getting better at settling in with each move, although there are definitely days I feel overwhelmed with all there is to do. This place needs a fence, but it also has original roof and HVAC so all will need replacing in the next five years (or less). We're trying to tackle things in an orderly way -- fence first so our dogs will have a chance to run around (NOT on my hardwood floors! LOL).

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 07:23 AM (t5zYU)

174 And fraud on such a "micro" scale would be very difficult to detect.

Because there's one thing you can count on it's 108% of Americans anywhere will all do the same thing.

Posted by: DaveA[/i][/b][/s] at November 28, 2015 07:23 AM (DL2i+)

175 Seamus, kick in the shins!

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:23 AM (jOumW)

176 >>>which is why pantless matters i suppose.

Yo.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 28, 2015 07:23 AM (EUMr7)

177 Wow, that is some eye-opening data. It is a daunting task ahead, not an impossible task but still a grim hard road to defeat Hillary. I sure hope we are not too weary or discouraged by all of the crap as we near the day. It would be really nice to have some media on our side. Ha! Fat chance!

Posted by: goon at November 28, 2015 07:24 AM (gy5kE)

178 I'm tired of elections being won by catering to the few 'swing' states... and thus being controlled by the special interests or minorities within those States...

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 12:13 PM (qh617)


I believe one state does that?  Be careful for what you wish for, that shit works both ways and liberals support it.  That means nothing good for us.

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:24 AM (jJRIy)

179 At our family Thanksgiving dinner, every one of the females at the stable stated their disdain and dislike for Teh Donald. When pressed on the reasons why, no specifics were forthcoming. The eventual consensus was that "he's mean". There's emotion-based thinking at its very worst. Sheesh.

Posted by: Uncle Busyhands at November 28, 2015 07:24 AM (Dwehj)

180 I'm not sure which is the more disturbing possibility:

I'm disturbed that Muldoon made 2 puns and I didn't get either one.

Posted by: DaveA[/i][/b][/s] at November 28, 2015 07:25 AM (DL2i+)

181 er...table

Posted by: Uncle Busyhands at November 28, 2015 07:25 AM (Dwehj)

182 In B4 "PENNSYLVANIA!!1!"

Posted by: The Electoral Hat at November 28, 2015 07:25 AM (vBeA5)

183 Y-Not , i have said to my spouse, we move into the wrecks and give the Next person the diaamond, and i'm sick of it. i guess that is pretty mean, but i won't do it again, i will staywhere i am this time or move to an apt that will have no emotional holds. And not the sweat equity.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:26 AM (jOumW)

184 Doing your own billing today, Seamus?

Posted by: Infidel at November 28, 2015 07:26 AM (SVEy9)

185 Bush was a lot more Latino friendly than Romney
41% is still losing and they weren't lumped usefully state-wise.

Posted by: DaveA[/i][/b][/s] at November 28, 2015 07:26 AM (DL2i+)

186 Does anyone know how the delegate math works out regarding Trump's chances? I would think his ceiling is around 30%. Can he accumulate enough delegates to clinch by winning pluralities in a lot of primaries? I sincerely hope not, but I've never seen anyone analyze this.

Posted by: Raul Johnson at November 28, 2015 07:27 AM (LCbuZ)

187 Well, Sean Trende's main points w.r.t. the Latino vote, as far as I can tell, is:

1. There's about 25% of Hispanics who already agree with border-security-first anyway
2. Overall immigration is not a motivating issue for most Latinos
3. They vote disproportionately D not because of identity politics, but because they are disproportionately poor, as more Latinos get more money and move into middle class, they trend more R

Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 07:27 AM (uZNvH)

188 kick in the shins! Posted by: willow ***** Gotcha covered: ICD-10-CM Code W50.1XXA -- accidental kick by another person, initial encounter (I'm giving benefit of the doubt that that was not an intentional kick in the shins.)

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:27 AM (NeFrd)

189 Posted by: PaleRider at November 28, 2015 12:19 PM (K7DqM) I know many will disagree with me.... But IMO Ross Perot caused BOTH parties to become much more conservative.... at least for a bit. There was a valid outside threat to the Washington Two Party power structure... and both parties suddenly found it in their hearts to balance the budget... for about 10 minutes... until he was no longer a threat... The closest thing we have now, is Trump.... sadly...

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 07:28 AM (qh617)

190 >>> I'm tired of elections being won by catering to the
few 'swing' states...

As an Ohioan, I never got why we're "the most important" state in the general election, but the primaries are so late our votes are worthless in choosing the candidates.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 28, 2015 07:28 AM (EUMr7)

191 I tell ya what Uncle Busyhands. At my table we didnt talk politics but the players are all known. 3 of the 5 females at my table like Trump, one is wishy washy, one, not a chance in hell unless he wears a small green cap with a red star on it. People like Trump for his freshness and unafraid approach to problems that we all know that the rest of them could care less about. Not because they "like" the guy.

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 07:28 AM (6Xbsz)

192 Doing your own billing today, Seamus? Posted by: Infidel **** Heh! No, just goofing around.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at November 28, 2015 07:28 AM (NeFrd)

193 Cruz can beat Hillary. He will crush her in debates and will not let the MFM help her.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 07:28 AM (MQEz6)

194 " i have said to my spouse, we move into the wrecks and give the Next person the diaamond, and i'm sick of it." I wish I had the temperament (and dough) to build a custom house, but I know I'd fret myself into an ulcer doing something like that. It seems like every story I've ever heard from someone who built their own place (or did a major remodel) is horrific. This new place has main floor living (main floor master etc, guest BRs on the second floor) - which we wanted - and is on a golf course. Quite a few retirees here. Maybe this will be our final stop.

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 07:29 AM (t5zYU)

195 herr, yes those socks are guy socks. see how pantless works so well?

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:29 AM (jOumW)

196 ME and NB split their electoral votes.



http://tinyurl.com/olgwdp2

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:29 AM (jJRIy)

197
The first thing 'I' would push.... would be to get rid of the winner take all crap for Electoral Votes...Make each Congressional district its own mini election.... with whoever wins the State getting the votes for the Senators...
Posted by: BB Wolf



Every so often someone runs the numbers on that scenario.  Here's 2012:

http://tinyurl.com/bzervdp

So, Romney -- who lost by 5 million votes -- barely scratches out a narrow win.

Can't stop the states apportioning their electors as they wish, pending the Supreme Court finding another penumbra in the Constitution, but if that's what your party needs to win, they've got more serious issues with the electorate.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 07:29 AM (kdS6q)

198 193 Cruz can beat Hillary.

He will crush her in debates and will not let the MFM help her.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 12:28 PM (MQEz6)


YES, now he just needs a dose of humility.

Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 07:30 AM (jJRIy)

199 I believe one state does that? Be careful for what you wish for, that shit works both ways and liberals support it. That means nothing good for us. Posted by: Nip Sip at November 28, 2015 12:24 PM (jJRIy) Except that the House of Representatives... is Republican... Why should EVERY electoral vote in California be dictated by San Fran and LA?

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 07:30 AM (qh617)

200 #193 Cruz can beat Hillary. He will crush her in debates and will not let the MFM help her. Ummm, Candy Crowley?

Posted by: Drider at November 28, 2015 07:31 AM (6Xbsz)

201 seamus, uh oh, i guess i am indeed twitchy this today, it must be the turkey allergy Nothing More! sees white coats coming through the door. i swear it's just allergies and stuff!

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:31 AM (jOumW)

202 NOOD elbows

Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 07:32 AM (t5zYU)

203 I didn't like this article when I read it the first time because the thrust seems to be:

Conservatism is dead, freedom is dead, traditional values are dead, get over it. We have to find other people to support us, all we can hope for is to stem the bleeding.

But the numbers used to support the claim show the total vote count went down between 2008 and 2012 roughly 2 percent in a population that rose 8 percent in the same time.  I don't have the statistics to parse that closer than that, but in an election that wound up with a victory caused by 7 percent difference between dim and rup, I wonder if the author is really looking at the numbers, or using the numbers to claim better moral positioning than that horrible person Rush Limbaugh.

I didn't believe conservatism is dead and we have to look to other things to be relevant when Bill Bennett said it in November in 2012. and I don't believe it now.
It would be like Janet Yellen stating that free market capitalism is dead and we have to look to Fascist ideals of the corporate state and managed economies from now on - as if anyone has tried anything but for the last 100 years.

Posted by: Kindltot at November 28, 2015 07:33 AM (q2o38)

204 Paris turbine

ISIS quaking in their sandals.

Weasel Zippers

Sigh

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 28, 2015 11:00 AM (DUoqb)



It would be funny as Hell, if, in a very public manifestation of the Gore Effect, the wind resolutely failed to blow for the entire duration of that turbine's sojourn there.

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at November 28, 2015 07:33 AM (7MWCL)

205 y-not thats what sledge hammer are for, move the interior and beams until you make your house yours. although i do have to alwsys hire an electritcian, because fear (don't tell Seamus about that one)

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:33 AM (jOumW)

206 hammers are for*

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:34 AM (jOumW)

207 The only way to turn out the vote is by showing people there's something good for which to vote.

Posted by: unfatmatt at November 28, 2015 07:34 AM (Xs6Mu)

208 great.  burn muffins, do research on census data, formulate a reply and get willowed anyways.

dratdratdrat.

(Oh, muffins were supposed to be baked at 300 for 50 minutes, not 500 for 30)

Posted by: Kindltot at November 28, 2015 07:34 AM (q2o38)

209 crappy GOP POTUS would roll back much of Obama's war on coal

8 Years of rust will brush right off.

Posted by: DaveA[/i][/b][/s] at November 28, 2015 07:34 AM (DL2i+)

210 ... with whoever wins the State getting the votes for the Senators...

how'bouts we repeal the 17th Amendment and elect Senators the way it was intended

Posted by: AltonJackson at November 28, 2015 07:35 AM (KCxzN)

211
Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 12:31 PM

NOOD elbows
Posted by: Y-not at November 28, 2015 12:32 PM




Sometimes, it's almost spooky....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 07:35 AM (kdS6q)

212 not all a loss Kindltot, hockey pucks are still needed.

Posted by: willow at November 28, 2015 07:35 AM (jOumW)

213 Just used some of the last left-overs that I'm not sick of to fry up a ham sammich. Did quite well. Pretty impressed with myself.

Posted by: Ricardo Kill at November 28, 2015 07:36 AM (aMjOU)

214 3. They vote disproportionately D not because of identity politics, but because they are disproportionately poor, as more Latinos get more money and move into middle class, they trend more R Posted by: chemjeff at November 28, 2015 12:27 PM (uZNvH) So, if we just give them enough money to make them middle class they'll vote for us!

Posted by: R at November 28, 2015 07:37 AM (zc3Db)

215 The only way to turn out the vote is by showing people there's something good for which to vote. Posted by: unfatmatt at November 28, 2015 12:34 PM (Xs6Mu) We could always try blipverts...

Posted by: Max Hatroom at November 28, 2015 07:44 AM (vBeA5)

216
as more Latinos get more money and move into middle class, they trend more R
Posted by: chemjeff



From 4:1 to 3:1

www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

Yay?!

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 28, 2015 07:45 AM (kdS6q)

217 Go to Chile. Nice beach towns and the least corrupt country I've encountered down there. Most prosperous too. Funny how that works out.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 28, 2015 11:44 AM (/tuJf)



Haven't been to Chile, although I would certainly like to visit. Sounds like it would be a good place to go if you were still in the workforce, and could earn enough to pay your way. But "prosperous" probably translates to "higher cost of living than many other countries", so it might not be the be-all and end-all for a retiree on a fixed income. I have been to Nicaragua several times, and the cost of living is attractively low, and the heavy hand of the Socialist government really doesn't seem to be all that heavy. And the people are hospitable.

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at November 28, 2015 07:48 AM (7MWCL)

218 "Latino" votes are not going to save us either people. Romney would have needed to get 70% of the Latino vote to win. No republican presidential nominee has hit over 50%. I think Bush may have gotten 46%. This whole pandering to Latinos is what the GOPe drags out every election so some mushy headed moderate republican gets the nomination. Don't fall for the banana up the tail pipe morons.

Posted by: Arson Wells at November 28, 2015 07:54 AM (UnJ7w)

219 I'd sell my vote but nobody needs it. Cheaper to import voters and put them on public assistance that I pay taxes to support. Nice racket.

Posted by: Man from Wazzustan at November 28, 2015 08:06 AM (ccNyn)

220 -
193 Cruz can beat Hillary.

He will crush her in debates and will not let the MFM help her.

Posted by: eman at November 28, 2015 12:28 PM
--------------

The problem being that the average voter could not even give an accurate assessment of what is said at a debate, much less who won.  All they know is how they FEEL. Hence our doom.

Posted by: irright at November 28, 2015 08:06 AM (DtNNC)

221 Only one candidate seems to favor, get this, limiting the rate of growth of the Latino population. Who could that be? If we don't do that, we're on a fast track to permanent one-party rule. And that always works out so well.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 08:07 AM (sdi6R)

222 If we don't do that, we're on a fast track to permanent one-party rule. And that always works out so well. Posted by: rickl Stock up on toilet paper.

Posted by: Bertram Cabot Jr. at November 28, 2015 08:09 AM (FkBIv)

223 From working the AOSHQ DD- Massachusetts & New Hampshire hand count. I was receiving calls at home & on cell phone from small cities & towns last year on Election Day up to 3 am. I believe all New England states hand count, I'm sure of the two above.

Posted by: Carol at November 28, 2015 08:09 AM (kuBAe)

224 Except that the House of Representatives... is Republican...

Why should EVERY electoral vote in California be dictated by San Fran and LA?

Posted by: BB Wolf at November 28, 2015 12:30 PM (qh617)



Bear in mind that the state legislature is heavily Red (as opposed to red) too. So that experiment (localized voting) has already been performed.

Posted by: Jay Guevara[/i][/b][/s][/u] at November 28, 2015 08:10 AM (oKE6c)

225 149 Someday even Chihuahuas will be able to vote.

Posted by: Ready For Jeb!!11!! at November 28, 2015 12:11 PM (Dwehj)

*******

Oh.  You mean the illegal Chihuahuas?  I was confused for  a moment.

Posted by: gracepcp at November 28, 2015 08:21 AM (OU4q6)

226 It's not just senior care homes.  My wife had her absentee ballot stolen right in the VA.  She pointed out the guy doing it to the staff and they did jack about it.

Posted by: Richard McEnroe at November 28, 2015 08:21 AM (Kucy5)

227

"Barack Obama did that work to get Democrats 10 million new votes from 2004 to 2008."

 

About that.  Leaving aside the odd silly concept that Obama was doing anything to get new Dem votes up until at least 2007, let's just focus on the "work".

 

In 2008, Obama's campaign was a parody of emptiness ("Hope and Change").  Combined with rhetoric that could spill out of 75% of GOP mouths - reduced deficit, transparency in govt., no single-payer in health insurance, etc etc.  People here obsess over "fundamental transformation" - but wasn't it a single instance, late in the campaign at an appearance in FL, where these words were used?  It certainly wasn't a phrase or concept most Obama voters in 2008 had heard.


In 2012, the pathetic state of the country was showcased in Obama's decision not to even offer the laughable and bizarre high school-style slogans of 2008.  Recall how, a few months before the election, his campaign was literally shamed and mob-shouted by the "press" to put out a ..... campaign platform of any kind?  (head-shaking parallel with the 2010 House GOP, dragged kicking and screaming to put out a "reform" package at the last minute, which they infamously failed to even act on once they got the House). 

 

The cretinous frenzy of 2008 was replaced by a limp stagger to the finish line - with the incumbent slumping over a lectern the day before the vote and barfing up one of the most repugnant, un-American, and un-presidential statements he's made, among many, about "voting for revenge".

 

Obama was elected on a wave of national idiocy and pathetic war hysteria (echoes ring out here in these comments to this day) and racism (sorry, that's what dumb "educated" middle class whites who vote to flatter their own small-minded narcissism are practicing) and re-elected by .... nothing more than a "turn out machine" and a collapsed public information process (press) producing robot-like votes. 

 

So the analysis of the mythical missing con voters seems OK, but the flourish about how Obama "worked" to produce the 2008 and 2012 outcomes is not just wrong, it misses the key point:  the electorate is not moved (in terms of outcomes, overall) by ideas, or standing for something, or any of that adult, substantive stuff. 

Posted by: rhomboid at November 28, 2015 08:30 AM (QDnY+)

228 That's the way it is right now: Republicans cannot win the presidency unless there's a huge shift in the electorate. There just aren't enough votes to keep it out of the margin of fraud. That whole "conservatives stayed home" or "evangelicals stayed home" on 2012 was always an obnoxious, stupid lie told by people who just don't like some groups of voters or don't want to admit that the nation has shifted away from our viewpoint. It wasn't that long ago that America was mostly conservative leaning and would, without the media pressure and lies, inevitably vote for the Republican presidential candidate except in extreme circumstances (after Nixon's resignation, for example).

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 28, 2015 08:39 AM (39g3+)

229 227 In 2008, Obama's campaign was a parody of emptiness ("Hope and Change"). Combined with rhetoric that could spill out of 75% of GOP mouths - reduced deficit, transparency in govt., no single-payer in health insurance, etc etc. People here obsess over "fundamental transformation" - but wasn't it a single instance, late in the campaign at an appearance in FL, where these words were used? It certainly wasn't a phrase orconcept most Obama voters in 2008 had heard. Posted by: rhomboid at November 28, 2015 01:30 PM (QDnY+) Yes, it was something like "We are five days away from the fundamental transformation of America." And I remember him sounding almost like a fiscal conservative in the 2008 debates. He let the mask slip with that "voting for revenge" bit in 2012. That has always been the Left's appeal, especially to minorities.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 08:53 AM (sdi6R)

230

Let's turn the microscope around and look at another (possibly) revealing thing - the complete difference between how the bulk of Dem "base" voters approach presidential politics and how (seemingly) the bulk of GOP base voters do it.

 

Imagine a presumptive front-runner like Hillary on the GOP side.  That's right, the very notion is laughable?  Why?

 

Because while much of the GOP electorate in the general, and even some of the primary process, is LIV and not too bright about public policy or its relation to their voting, enough of it is somewhat substantive that candidates are - brace yourselves - actually evaluated on what they pretend to believe or what they have done.

 

Yeb! is the closest analogue to Hillary on the GOP side (closest, not identical) as far as being a legacy establishment figure.  Look how he has been unceremoniously dropped, almost from the outset.  Why?  Not just a limp public persona.  Perceived approach to key issues, and attitude towards the more sane and practical voters (i.e. those that know mass illegal migration without assimilation is a disaster, that are completely skeptical of yet more top-down federal education "reform" nonsense, etc.).

 

Bottom line.  You have Two Americas, all right.  The Dem America, on the presidential level, is essentially brain-dead robots who will vote for anyone, anything, with the right label and embraced by the idiot culture/institutions/press dominated by Dems.  This goes far beyond the utterly lost robot voters like blacks and most Hispanics who haven't let any substance creep into their voting motivations for generations.  GOP America - brace yourselves - actually spits out huge presumptive favorites with huge war-chests without hesitation, based on actually assessing them in terms of what the country needs. 

 

Have not seen any ideas about how you make head-way against what is at base a fairly irrational, tribalistic Dem majority on the presidential level.

Posted by: rhomboid at November 28, 2015 08:58 AM (QDnY+)

231 230 Have not seen any ideas about how you make head-way against what is at base a fairly irrational, tribalistic Dem majority on the presidential level. Posted by: rhomboid at November 28, 2015 01:58 PM (QDnY+) There is no way, short of eliminating the universal franchise and making voting an earned privilege, not a right; predicated on something like property ownership, military service, paying taxes, or God forbid, simply being gainfully employed. The universal franchise will doom us, and there is no way around it. The Founders were well aware of that.

Posted by: rickl at November 28, 2015 09:11 AM (sdi6R)

232 "231 230 Have not seen any ideas about how you make head-way against what is at base a fairly irrational, tribalistic Dem majority on the presidential level. Posted by: rhomboid at November 28, 2015 01:58 PM (QDnY+) There is no way, short of eliminating the universal franchise and making voting an earned privilege, not a right; predicated on something like property ownership, military service, paying taxes, or God forbid, simply being gainfully employed. The universal franchise will doom us, and there is no way around it. The Founders were well aware of that." And so what does the despairing, knowing it's a mortal sin, or don't you?, either way, do? Quit? How about you cry too? Film it. You quit and cry 'cause it ain't fair. Santa ain't real so you need to encourage suicide to welfare recipients? I sum better than you; Despair indeed Good Sir unless you have read the Buckley, William Frank Junior catalogue and get some uncunt fight in ya. Otherwise, keep having no fight and being a loud voice for surrender to what, Buckley told your ass and you didn't listen, was in 1950's America forgone Wilsonism as far as the brain-dead racist I can see.

Posted by: twoslaps at November 28, 2015 12:23 PM (QhjrY)

233 Come on now. The best way to get out the votes and have the volunteers to do that one on one is to shit on your base. Lie to them and then shit on them. Works every time it is tried.

Posted by: Jukin, Former Republican at November 28, 2015 01:45 PM (AhyHb)

234 Trump will stop the no-budget-for-how-long Republicans, the spend-like-there-is-no-tomorrow, pretend you have done something about debt (Rubio, e.g. while the rampant spending continues beyond the next Pres inauguration). Trump will build a wall and stop massive illegals from overrunning this country. Will the GOPe do this? No. They were supposed to way back when? The GOPe are the global Uniparty who are in favor of giving the farm away to the UN -- see TPP. Who voted in favor of TPP? Cruz, whose wife works for Goldman Sachs and has been part of the globalists. We are screwed. The only hope to begin a turn around is Trump who has not been bought and who also has produced something in his lifetime by working in America. Not one other candidate has done the same. Trump -- Make America Great Again.

Posted by: pyromancer76 at November 28, 2015 05:41 PM (6pKv/)

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