January 30, 2008

Rasmussen California: McCain 32%, Romney 28%
— Ace

That's apparently before Giuliani dropped out and endorsed McCain, but I think most of Giuliani's people will go to Romeny, endorsement or not.

The polls suggests a slight edge here for Romney picking up Giuliani's voters...

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Giuliani voters had a favorable opinion of Romney while 53% said the same about McCain. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Giuliani’s voters believe McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Sixty-one percent (61%) are that confident about Romney’s electability.

McCain's always been a very known quantity. Either you liked him or you didn't. Effectively he's the incumbent, and late-deciders break for the challenger. I don't think an endorsement changes that.

Four points? In California? Very doable. Guessing at a 3:2 Romeny: McCain break, about 15% supported Giuliani, that's... hmm, three net points right there or thereabouts.

Posted by: Ace at 08:26 PM | Comments (83)
Post contains 151 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Is Cal an all-or-none delegate state?

Posted by: Bart at January 30, 2008 08:32 PM (YZ/Wt)

2 No, Bart.  It's a proportional District WTA system.

Posted by: Kaitian at January 30, 2008 08:32 PM (S5mm4)

3 Ace, I doubt that.  The polls in California has low poll favorability towards Guiliani.  Even with the recent polls, McCain holds a big lead over Romney.  McCain could stand to get a HUGE chunk of the California caucus.

Posted by: Kaitian at January 30, 2008 08:36 PM (S5mm4)

4 Ace,

No matter what, I think it's time to accept the fact that there will in every likelihood be an Obama-Billary administration for a very long time.

I supported Rudy! but cannot support McCain for President.

No way.

Not once.

Not nevah.

I mean really, what's the difference between McCain and Billary?

The war is winding down now anyway. McCain will likely send the troops packing as quickly as Billary would.

As for Obama, I say, let him have carte blanche.

He wants to immediately withdraw from Iraq?


Drivers licenses for illegals?


Raise taxes.?

Even better.

Give the Palestinians Israel.

Go ahead.


You go Barry!

Just do it.

I'll be fine no matter what.

As for the rest of America.

That's their problem.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: MTT at January 30, 2008 08:37 PM (0mJwb)


There, there MTT. You just get all that hate out of you. Don't worry - you'll feel better once you're done. Here's a glass of water to rinse your mouth out with.

I'll come back in a while and check on you.

Posted by: Maetenloch at January 30, 2008 08:47 PM (pc3z1)


I just hope wer're not whistleing past the graveyard here.

I will never vote for McCain. I'll write my own damn self in first.

Posted by: Don Carne at January 30, 2008 08:53 PM (wSNS7)

7 So come November we get to chose between Idjit 1: Hildabeast Roddumb Cankles or Idjit 2: John Amnesty McShame, CAPT, USN, RET? Oh S***!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: GMcassel AMH1 USN RET at January 30, 2008 08:57 PM (RLdZs)

8 think most of Giuliani's people will go to Romeny, endorsement or not.

Really? I figured most of them would go to McCain, hope you're right.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at January 30, 2008 09:00 PM (hfyfI)

9 McCain's California bid also doesn't look too bright for him when you consider that

a) Independents cannot vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries (which should be a friggin rule in every state, but alas)


b) Registered Repubs here are very, very angry and worried about amnesty

So I think while McCain's Dream Run 2008 has been pretty formidable, he's about to enter the gauntlet where he can no longer surf the backs of moderate and liberal "independents"

We'll see...

Posted by: Huck at January 30, 2008 09:02 PM (pDDd/)

10 Maetenloch,


Who said anything about hate?

I respect John McCain for his courage and service and his leadership in many important issues.

I cannot, however, support his candidacy for POTUS.

Amnesty, taxes, campaign finances, the so-called "gang of 14", ANWR, so-called "climate change," etc.

On these issues his positions are identical to those of Billary and Obama.

And as to letting Obama-Billary govern, I say let them.

Is is "hateful" to allow for the fact that serious policy differences may lead to very different and often unintended outcomes?

If allowing the immediate naturalization of 20+Million people in this country is really a good idea, well, let them try it.

Same with open borders.

Or abandoning the "Zionist Entity."

Or raising taxes.

Or pushing for "carbon neutrality."

Go ahead, let them enact these policies and let's see what happens.

And yes, I'll be fine.

The overall impact on my life will be small.

Except for the destruction of Israel, none of these policies will matter much to me at all, nor will my life be greatly impacted.

Just sayin'.

Again, where's the hate?

Why am I a hater if I can't vote for McCain?

Or for that matter, Obama-Billary?

BTW, who are you voting for?

Just askin'.

Posted by: MTT at January 30, 2008 09:11 PM (0mJwb)

11 Huck, if you consider being cheap, lying to the Republican Party supporters, conservatives, etc as formidable, then you're right.

Posted by: Kaitian at January 30, 2008 09:12 PM (S5mm4)


God... how have we come to this. Even a week ago we would be making fun of Hugh. But now I only hope to see a "Poll puts Romney in second, you know who looks good- Romney" line.

Posted by: TheEJS at January 30, 2008 09:21 PM (hBYdH)

13 My county, a large one in So. Calif., all the GOP lit. I'm getting in email is very pro-Romney. Their newsletter is where I learned about Fred's Calif. political director endorsing Romney. Calif. is not a winner-take-all state, so Romney has a good chance to pick up a good number of delegates out of this delegate rich state. Very large Mormon population in So. Calif., but there is also a large active and retired military population who might favor McCain out of some misguided loyalty. We are a retired military family and there are no voters here that are planning to vote for McCain, so hopefully we aren't alone. We've also suffered at the collapse of the housing industry, not just subprime mtg. collapses, but the drop off in new home starts and we are drowning in taxes, so I think Romney wins the financial/tax/economic argument.

Will Arnold's endorsement of McCain be a plus for McCain? It will be nationally, but I think the jury is still out on Californians who are more and more disturbed by Arnold.

Posted by: Sara at January 30, 2008 09:25 PM (Wi/N0)



I was just snarking on you because your post was so long that my MDS buffer got full and overflowed. Trust me I'm angry at McCain too. But I guess I can only read so many over the top blog comments before a fuse pops.

As for me, I plan on voting for McCain over Hillary or Obama in the fall. Very, very unhappily and reluctantly. So I guess I'm all uncool now. oh well.

I know we're all still in drunken barroom rant mode around here, but let's no go completely crazy. Sometimes the best you can do is chose the lesser of two evils. I guess this is how it felt to be a Republican in the '76 election.

p.s. You aren't related to Carol Herman are you?

Posted by: Maetenloch at January 30, 2008 09:33 PM (pc3z1)

15 p.s. You aren't related to Carol Herman are you?

Why would he be? He made sense even if his opinion differs from yours. Carol, OTOH, is completely off the rails.

Let's try and keep it civil here, shall we?

Posted by: Additional Blond Agent at January 30, 2008 09:39 PM (DQDJU)

16 Some frontrunner. At some point before the general election in November, Presidential Candidate Senator Keating-McCain needs to show that he can win more than 36% of the vote. (For that matter, will he even get over 50% in Arizona?)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at January 30, 2008 09:39 PM (xuymE)

17 See, to me, I think the guys who like Rudy as pit bull will go to McCain. They both have that scrappy attitude. I hope I'm wrong and that Rudy's drop benefits Romney, but I don't think so.

Posted by: Britt at January 30, 2008 09:42 PM (1jt+u)

18 The gerrymandering in CA makes the statewide polls almost unusable. The inland districts tend to be very conservative while the coastal districts tends to fart pixie dust and union voting chits. In short, while the Party here is very weak in numbers we tend to be very McClintockesque. I'm guessing CA will be a wash.

Posted by: runninrebel at January 30, 2008 09:51 PM (o/KrO)


It is true that Romney “attacked” McCain with his own statements and actions.


It is also true that McCain counter attacked with misrepresentation and lies.


It is not only that McCain won, it is the way he won that gets my blood boiling.  He did more of it tonight and this is no man of honor.


As the great guns of the conservative movement (talk radio) blast away on a daily basis, I have come to understand that the target – old folks and moderates – are out of range.  Moderates don’t care, almost by definition, and old folks are happy holding their absentee ballots in their MSM Brian Williams cocoon.  They can’t be reached through the blog’s either.


So we need to consult Sun Tsu and Confucius for new strategies and ideas - it is now that we miss Ronald Reagan the most.  We need to get to the MSM.


We require William F. Buckley Jr. to stand holding a 4-foot picture of McCain and giving it rhythmic whaps from the bottom of a sandal held in the free hand.







Posted by: Robert at January 30, 2008 09:58 PM (Rb4Qc)

20 Oh, and stop fucking moving here! I can't breath!

Posted by: runninrebel at January 30, 2008 10:07 PM (o/KrO)

It seems the only argument the McCain defenders actually seem to believe is that he's electable. This makes them more pragmatic realists than the rigid ideologues, they imply. Electability is important, but the argument hinges on current polls (meaningless) and the impression that McCain is popular. He is, but almost solely due to the adoring press he gets. That will turn 180 right after he gets the nomination and I doubt that McAnger will be able to deal very well with actually being demonized by the machine he courts. And those mushy moderates who love him now will only go along with what their TVs suggest, just as they do now.
What no one points out though is Romney was elected in MA. This is very impressive for any Republican. Sure it takes some compromises, but damn man, that is the definition of electability! McCain could only do so if he became a democrat and married a Kennedy. And I think he would.
But if you just want to win, vote Obama. He'd be much more willing to work with republicans and consider new ideas.

Posted by: Dr. Realistic at January 30, 2008 10:18 PM (P1nnp)

22 Once the nominations are set, if it is McCain, the media will tear him apart. No more Mr. War Hero, they'll dig up someone who has some negative tale to tell. They'll harp on how dumb he really is and what is he going to say, "hey I was only 5th from the bottom of my class not the bottom?" And right now his age isn't a factor, but wait, it will be. He is vulnerable on so many levels, it will be a blood bath.

Posted by: Sara at January 30, 2008 10:27 PM (Wi/N0)

23 And that's before you even get to the issues.

Posted by: Sara at January 30, 2008 10:29 PM (Wi/N0)


Umm... Ace?  Intervention time.

I understand the righteous hostility towards McBackstabber McCain, because I share it too- even though I'm not a fan of Romney, who I see as another Big Government "conservative".  McCain sucks.

But you do know that short of a miracle that McCain is the nominee, right?  Right?


Posted by: Hollowpoint at January 30, 2008 10:48 PM (v8vVW)

25 Sara is absolutely right. I've been saying this for weeks now: The media will turn on McCain so fast and so hard he will wither on the vine in an instant. They lick Maverick McAmnesty, but they love Democrats more. Are you ready for  months of J-Mac pitching a temper tantrum every week? Ready for months of "Conservatives Question McCain" stories once he gets the nomination? Ready to see the full court propaganda press thanks to the Clinton machine or the fawning idolizing of the Obamessiah?

That's would you get if you nominate McCain.

Posted by: Britt at January 30, 2008 11:05 PM (1jt+u)

26 Speaking of Repub/Dems/Indies voting in each other's primaries:

How many dems declared themselves Repub. and voted in the Florida Repub primary? With no contested local elections, why wouldn't they, since the dem presidential meant nothing.

Posted by: liontooth at January 30, 2008 11:34 PM (6sayt)

27 The media will turn on McCain so fast and so hard he will wither on the vine in an instant.

And you can guess Britt that in the same sentence when some Media talking head announces he's gotten the nomination (assuming he gets it, because it's not a done deal yet!) they will mention his age:

"Today Senator McCain secured the Republican nomination making him the oldest human being to ever be nominated."

Posted by: liontooth at January 30, 2008 11:44 PM (6sayt)

28 Looking to Super Tuesday 2/5:

Real Clear Politics Delagate Count

Only winner take all:
New York 101 (closed)
Missouri 58
Arizona 53 (closed)
New Jersey 52
Utah 36
Connecticut 30 (closed)
Montana 15
Delaware 18 (closed)

There are a 3 primaries between Super Tuesday on 2/9 for about 120 delegates not winner take all.

On 2/12 Virginia has 63 delegates winner take all.

Posted by: liontooth at January 31, 2008 01:13 AM (6sayt)

29 Schwarzenegger's endorsement is far more significent than Rudy's.

Posted by: Michael Laurence at January 31, 2008 02:59 AM (M0QEs)


Okay, now I've totally lost it.  I don't like McCain, his stomping on the conservative coalition in 2000 was egregious and his fawning acolytes in the press loved it, but then they liked Bob Dole, too, until he was the nominee. 

But I've stayed away from the debates because I wasn't interested in any of hte candidates this time round.  But I watched last night, and I understand Huckabee's, and even to some extent Paul's, appeal.  Aside from some tearing off into the Federal Reserve and Gold Standard, Paul sounded logical and intelligent.  Huckabee was not the guy I have been reading about.  He's actually refreshing to see especially in comparison with the silliness of the McCain-Romney squabble. 

So I'm a Huckabee guy now?  I don't know any more.

But I do know this.  If McCain runs against Hillary, I am voting for her.  If he runs against Obama, I am staying home. 

Posted by: blaster at January 31, 2008 03:17 AM (lfFUo)

31 I think MTT makes good points. Let it all go to hell in a handbasket under Obama/Billary. Let the shock of what they'll do to the country be so great that maybe, just maybe, the country will wake up. No irony. I mean it. Nothing but catastrophe can change our course now.

Posted by: ricpic at January 31, 2008 03:20 AM (+++MJ)

32 It ain't over quite yet.  Perhaps we ought to be thinking about what we can do to help Romney (cash? manning the phone banks?) over the remaining run up to Super Tuesday, instead of writing his obituary and bemoaning our fate.  Not very moronic of me, I know, but there it is.

Posted by: Z as in Jersey at January 31, 2008 03:45 AM (RiRew)

33 Oh, and it's not just a delegate count at this point.  Votes for Mitt in states he's likely to lose could conceivably change the media story from McMentum to MittMentum  from Super Tuesday forward.  If McCain can last five years in the Hanoi Hilton without giving up hope of defeating the enemy, we can last five more days in the political dumpster without giving up hope of defeating McCain in this nomination process.

Posted by: Z as in Jersey at January 31, 2008 03:50 AM (RiRew)

34 I never thought I'd be pro-Romney . . . I guess that's what the picture of President McCain does to me.

I just can't support the guy.

Posted by: Scout at January 31, 2008 04:01 AM (OkeFn)


Arnold the turncoats endorsement means nothing- he's trash to those of us who supported him earlier and then sold us out the first time he took a hard hit from the special-interest groups that have a stranglehold on this state.

McCain hasn't the temperament to win- his behavior last night was indicitive of a angry old man  who can be goaded.

Bush, for all his faults,never let the opponent rattle him- think John has that ability?

Posted by: jjshaka at January 31, 2008 04:26 AM (fgMpE)

36 Having cast my ballot in Florida for Romney and lost, all I can do is watch McCain steamroll through the rest of the country... unless all you morons who haven't voted yet get off your asses and do something about it.

One thing that depresses me is that I had to vote for Romney at all. There was a guy on the radio who was telling the host, "We just have to swallow a bitter pill and vote for McCain."  Well, let me tell you, it ain't gonna happen. Romney was as bitter a pill as I'm willing to take, and if I'd known he was going to lose anyway, I'd have cast my ballot for Thompson (who was still on the ballot) just out of spite.

If McCain is on the ballot in November, it won't be hard. I don't trust Romney as it is, so McCain saves me a lot of trouble. By advocating liberalism, insisting on repeating the lie that he's a conservative (Santorum proved to us how he got that 83% ACU rating), and THEN telling me I have to swallow the bitter pill and like it, he makes the sharp contrast between when I stand up for Republicans and when I stand up for conservatives.  I will never give that bastard the satisfaction.

And don't talk to me about judges. That man won't appoint any Sam Alito to replace Ginsburg or Stevens. He's said he'd appoint Roberts but not Alito, which to me is code for: I'll appoint someone who won't admit to being conservative in public - and that's how we got Souter.  I think we're lucking out with Roberts, but I'm sick of hiring Justices on the basis of luck.

That all said, let's not sit home in November. If we can get just one state to vote for an acceptable third party or write-in, and if the states split close the way they have for the last two elections, we might be able to throw the vote into the House. Considering that scenario requires a majority of states, it could be a fun thing to watch.

Posted by: The Black Republican at January 31, 2008 04:31 AM (TJwIL)


 This is an honest-to-god, try-it-yourself Google Map Search

AoSHQ Secret location Revealed!

so much is explained.   so much.

Which NYT reporter/columnist is ace really?

My guess is Paul Krugman.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at January 31, 2008 04:33 AM (UeP9e)

38 McCain's popularity, such as it is, comes almost entirely from the media, as others have said. Right now, the meme is, "Independent Republican", "Free-Thinking Maverick", "Bipartisan Uniter" etc. etc.

Let's imagine the threads that appear the second he gets the nomination:

"Old white man with a foul temper vs. young black man with a heart of gold"
"Washington Insiders: will McCain be the first president to die of old age in office?"
"Voters Wonder: how will McCain's risk of dementia affect his administration?"
"McCain: less jobs, more wars."
"McCain and Iran: can a hot-headed warmonger be trusted with nukes?"
"Did McCain really just say the words 'tar baby' while Obama was on TV?"
"McCain vs. Hillary: a cultural metaphor for wife beating?"
"Economic ignorance: McCain and the crisis of the Middle Class"

etc. etc.

Posted by: DoDoGuRu at January 31, 2008 04:38 AM (72nfo)

39 Nah,

McCain will win California.   From early on, Romney's campaign was built on hype.  It still is. 

Sure, the guy is smart as hell.  And he would win if we were looking for a CEO President.  But pretending like he has some kind of foreign policy record, when most Republican voters are concerned about  the War on Terror, Romney loses.
And, on social issues, McCain has a longer record than Romney, and it shows signs of compromise.  But Romney's record and his current campaign shows that he is something of a cipher.  He'll adapt to the biggest temporal power that surrounds him (hence his strong support from the lobbyist wing of the GOP). 

The biggest problem with Romney is that his handlers decided to run him as GWB II.  That might excite the handful of Republicans that still consider themselves part of the W generation.  This group is very excitable, very active, and also very stupid.  Thankfully, most Republicans do not want 4 more more years of Bush.  And this has implications for Romney.

McCain has a lot of flaws.  But people know him.  He's rough and crusty, mostly nice, but occasionally loses his temper.  They know that he does what he thinks and doesn't care if it pisses people off.  People like that.  And it has been celebrated as a virtue in both the MSM and conservative media for decades.  So McCain is going to win big in California.

Posted by: Oops at January 31, 2008 05:27 AM (tOFGj)

40 "And (McCain's temper has been celebrated as a virtue in... conservative media for decades." -- Oops @ 40 above

On this point, you are wrong. The conservative media is well reflected by the AoSHQ commenters and the Weekly Standard writers. Most of us and them can't stand the old SOB.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at January 31, 2008 06:21 AM (wK2cX)

41 What an incredibly stupid post.  Giuliani supporters will break fully for McCain, no doubt.  They are social liberals and will in no way go for a Romney who has been trying so hard to be the Jesus candidate.  Also if they liked Julie for his elecetability why would they not go for McCain who has the mantle of elecetability right now?  They will.  Arnie just endorsed him ffs.  It's amazing how much you guys love liberals when they are covering up your party's inner huckabee, and making the smart people feel not so freaked out by your true ideology, but as soon as they start trying to assert some control you go nuts and call them traitors.

The construction that previously 5th place McCain is effectively an incumbent because everyone knows him is false on it's face, but revealingly desperate.  The GOP got to know everyone else and puked at the thought of them, so I guess McCain is winning that beauty contest.

The most amazing thread running through this thread is that this is a trick by the MSM to give the Democrats the win.  So fucking crazy.  You pussies should stfu and realize that the country is rejecting you and now your party has rejected you.  You 9/11 conservatives have basically been given the heave-ho and it's a beautiful thing.

Ace get's mocked for being a Hewitt wannabe, but it's amazing how closely he hews to the new dominate paradigm-Romney is the only conservative hope and the people are noticing!  Then make up a bunch of shit that isn't true and based on nothing and call it proof.

Enjoy the slow twist to November douches. 

Since Gabriel's got time on his hands maybe he can type up one of his deeply insightful wise-beyond-his-years posts on the mass exodus of rep.s from the GOP.

Posted by: Sinistro at January 31, 2008 06:23 AM (zpHFI)



I ain't reading all that shit.



Posted by: Bart at January 31, 2008 06:36 AM (7DeB+)

43 Oops, great comment. Whoever told Romney that GW Bush version 2 was a winning platform needs to be publicly identified so nobody will ever listen to them again.

Dick Morris? KJ Lopez? Jeb Bush (who did endorse Romney and sent some of his senior advisors to the Romney campaign last year)?

Yeah, Romney is willing to tell the Coulter wing of the party what they want to hear about abortion and gay rights to get their backing. How on earth would that characteristic appeal to Giuliani voters? I would guess most serious Giuliani supporters know that it's the Dobson/Coulter folks who made their guy unelectable in the GOP primary, so why would they break for either Romney or (shudder) Huckabee?

Posted by: funky chicken at January 31, 2008 06:39 AM (I+jPP)

44 Ann Coulter analyzes GOP Presidential hopefuls:

---Rudy Giuliani:

"I Think He's The Only Republican Who Can't Beat Hillary."

"I don't see him winning the Primary."

"If you can't get MY vote as a Republican against Hillary....."

---John McCain:

"Not a Conservative, but a patriot."

"A genuine war hero, unlike John Kerry."

"His weaknesses are half of his positions."

---Mitt Romney:

"Red stater in a blue state."

"Has a working knowledge of God."

Posted by: funky chicken at January 31, 2008 06:41 AM (I+jPP)


"In short, while the Party here is very weak in numbers we tend to be very McClintockesque."

In this whole angst ridden thread this one comment pretty much says it all. Talk about irony.

Why oh why, could it be that the "Party here is very weak in numbers". And it's not just in California. It's EVERYWHERE except the South and the non-coast Western States. And the Western base is slowly sliding away as areas become less 'true' to the faith. It's not so much that certain areas are gaining population. It's the type of new population that they are gaining.This cycle Colorado or maybe Nevada or maybe both, may finally drop into the 'blue State' category and NOT COME BACK. 

Perhaps it's because of the second part of the above telling commentary --- "We tend to be very McClintockesque."

Yeah that has worked out ever so well for you in California has it not ? Now the Party is barely more than breathing there. Almost a 'cult'.

'Real' conservatism. Catch the wave.

Posted by: dougf at January 31, 2008 06:45 AM (16GPT)

46 (McCain's temper)

I forgot the close parenthetical above.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at January 31, 2008 06:50 AM (wK2cX)

47 "I believe my party has gone astray. I think the Democratic Party is a
fine party, and I have no problems with it, in their views and their
philosophy."- John McCain, "R" AZ

Need i have to say anymore.....

Posted by: A Arizona Republican at January 31, 2008 06:52 AM (+7oCm)

48 It's nice that you're staying optimistic...

Posted by: Nice Deb at January 31, 2008 06:54 AM (cAWek)


You know, I am tired of folks being manipulated by the press. Start digging and you will find that Romney and Guiliani were the clear front runners. Then religion entered to knock out Romney and he answered that. So, in answer to that, all of a sudden Huckabee jumps up in the polls to take away votes from Romney. Guilliani suddenly has ethical questions, and questions about whether he is conservative, and then the silence about him was deafening. McCain is all of a sudden being portrayed as a conservative, which he ain't. It is time for conservatives to get in line and start managing our own destiny. Now don't just take my word for it, I make Ronald Wilson Reagan look like a leftist, and I loved the man as a conservative. It is time we set the rules as to whom we choose. My guy got knocked out by the press manipulation, but I'll be _______ if I'll vote for the fair haired media boy in his place. So I'll be voting for my 2nd choice, Romney.

By the way once McCain gets the nomination by press manipulation, how soon after does the media rip him apart for his positions and the fact that he ain't a conservative. That way they shoe-in Hillary cause no one dares to bring her baggage to the table to show what a communist-socialist she is.

Posted by: Fred H at January 31, 2008 06:56 AM (Z1tn1)


It is time for conservatives to get in line and start managing our own destiny.


We're allowing the MSM and the shitty Republican establishment choose a moderate candidate when we should be picking our own damn candidate.

If necessary, I'm willing to storm the convention.

Posted by: Bart at January 31, 2008 07:05 AM (vmuYW)

51 Fred, it wasn't just the press.  Can somebody explain to me precisely why some states have open primaries?  If nothing else, a McCain nomination - and the defeat that comes with it - should motivate some changes about that.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at January 31, 2008 07:07 AM (Z3AmO)

52 Not McCain...

proud to call myself a veteran, but nothing in my service approaches
the sacrifice McCain was called on to make for his country.


for McCain today based on his war record would be the equivalent of
voting for a candidate in 1940 based on his gallantry in Cuba during
the Spanish American War. It's laudable... but it's irrelevant.

then, what has he done that's been good for this country and not for
John McCain? He crafted McCain-Feingold, which abridged OUR freedom of
speech, then sets up the Reform Institute to sidestep his own financial
restrictions. He says he's a champion of the war effort while ignoring
his own benchmark suggestions and taking money from George Soros. He
hires a former official of the Mexican Government who says he doesn't
even recognize our borders to craft our immigration policy.  He blocks judges nominated by his own party's President to get in good with Democrats.

I can't. I just can't. Tuesday I vote for Mitt Romney.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at January 31, 2008 07:07 AM (AZziM)

53 Anyone remember Fred?  I liked that guy.  I think he was a perfect example of how only the crazy assholes really work hard to get this job.

Posted by: tachyonshuggy at January 31, 2008 07:10 AM (Lz6uE)

54 OK, the stock brokers who were supporting Giuliani will break for Romney. I would guess most of them already did so though.

The Huckster still leads in AL and GA. The RonPaul signs are all down, but have been replaced by Huckster signs.

Bart, for whom would you storm the convention? Fred! was the most conservative guy in there, but that certainly wouldn't be something he would recommend.

Romney? Romney isn't any more conservative than McCain.

Posted by: funky chicken at January 31, 2008 07:11 AM (I+jPP)

55 DodoGuru -- And that will just be the threads here... imagine what the left will do.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at January 31, 2008 07:13 AM (AZziM)

56 I was a Rudy supporter, then jumped to Fred! because I thought he had most of the good Rudy qualities but would satisfy the social/religio conservative wing enough to be able to win the nomination.

Boy was I wrong.

Either Romney or McCain will get my vote in the general election. I won't bother to go out to vote in the primary.

Posted by: funky chicken at January 31, 2008 07:14 AM (I+jPP)

57 Nom, that's a strange mashup of my comments and someone else's.  I wasn't saying that Ace of Spades or the Weekly Standard has supported McCain.  I'm saying that McCain's "temper" and "maverick" reputation, no matter how silly it is, is going to resonate with voters in a more positive way than RomneyTM

And as far as polls go....  Romney is the most beatable candidate out there. I mean, there is no way that Romney is going to beat Hillary or Obama.

Now, having said that, I think people should vote their conscience and not try to game the system by picking the "electable" candidate.  I believe you should always pick the best.  But if people vote for Romney because they think he is more electable, they will be surprised by the election of Mrs. President. 

Posted by: Oops at January 31, 2008 07:20 AM (tOFGj)


As a CA Fred! voter (and therefor, a closet twhirrily), who'd reluctantly decided to "Go Rudy" post Fred!'s lamented departure - a prinicipled conservative who apparently and unknowingly has been suffering from the newly coined MDS, according to the developing "conventional wisdom" of RINOs ...of which my rebuttal is NOT - but, yeah, I'm "breaking" (even more reluctantly), for Mitt.

Go, er, Mitt. Umm, yay.



Posted by: davis,br at January 31, 2008 07:21 AM (q4usA)

59 Has anyone ever changed their vote based on an endorsement from another politician?  It's just silly.

Posted by: Terry at January 31, 2008 07:30 AM (nyxv/)

60 My first choice has Fred!. When that didn't pan out, I moved to Romney, who I'll  be voting for on Super Tuesday. I would have supported Giuliani if it wasn't for his pro choice position, and was sad to see him go. I would have happily supported him in the general.

McCain is tied with Huck, just above Ron Paul for my primary pick.

But if he is our nominee, I'll have no trouble voting for him against Hillary or Obama.

Posted by: Nice Deb at January 31, 2008 08:26 AM (cAWek)


Answer to #62

Are you kidding? There are thousands of complete morons in the electorate who are either uninformed, lazy, stupid or just plain followers who will vote for whomever their governor, senator, or their boss endorses.

Posted by: Mikeyslaw at January 31, 2008 08:34 AM (yrptY)


Just heard McCain is about 5.5' tall.  Short Man Syndrome anyone. 

If he is the GOP nominee (I hope not), His implosion will be one for the ages.

He of course will then blame conservatives.

O/T-Does somebody know where Romney got his money? Family money or self-made?  I know he's rich. I like that in a candidate. I too hope to be rich someday. 

Posted by: Sick of Funky Chicken at January 31, 2008 08:39 AM (igcvF)


As the slime express gathers steam – both in terms of endorsements and amount of slime – almost lost is McCain’s meandering answers to two questions:


As President, would you sign your Bill (Amnesty) if it passed?


What about those lies about Romney?


As to the first, even the necessity of asking such a question is strange and revealing, the answer even more so.  It was so twisted as to define “Byzantine” and so deliberately toward obfuscation that one cannot conclude other than McCain dare not tell the truth about his own position.


As to the slime about Romney, McCain doubled down with chortles and snide grins.


McCain cannot tell the truth about himself, much less Romney.


This leaves me unable to determine if McCain is just a lyin’ scumbag or, indeed, if this is an early sign of the dementia we all know is coming.


Either way, some expect me now to jump up and dive for the lyin’ scumbag lever, and that my friends, I cannot do.

Posted by: Robert at January 31, 2008 08:42 AM (Rb4Qc)

64 dougf:

Perhaps it's because of the second part of the above telling commentary --- "We tend to be very McClintockesque."
... Yeah that has worked out ever so well for you in California has it not ?

'Real' conservatism. Catch the wave.

You aren't getting my point and I'm not sure how you're formulating your theory about California. The dems have controlled this state since 1970. The repub party here hasn't become more strident in philosophy at all, they've simply moved out of the state in frustration. Ca is also very balkanized by political affiliation, which only perpetuates the status quo.

But your point has merit in one regard. Ca is a good example of what happens when the Repub party forfeits power to the Dems in the hopes that they will screw things up so bad that there will be a backlash.

Well, it's been almost 40 years. Where's my backlash?

Posted by: runninrebel at January 31, 2008 08:44 AM (0n9wc)


"The Huckster still leads in AL and GA. The RonPaul signs are all down, but have been replaced by Huckster signs. "

That says allot about how bad things are.  If the South really goes this way, we can all just pack it in -- it ain't working.

Posted by: Fred at January 31, 2008 08:55 AM (ESiy4)


68 - Gotcha! (i.e., Fred channels Fred!).

Yep. It might be time to modify the franchise. (link to scary - but old - Dan Simmons work)

Posted by: davis,br at January 31, 2008 09:03 AM (q4usA)


Bart, for whom would you storm the convention? Fred! was the most conservative guy in there, but that certainly wouldn't be something he would recommend.

For Romney, the man I've wanted to be president since 2002. McCain will not be rightful nominee even if he gets the most delegates. These open primaries are ruining our nomination process. I'm being disenfranchised as a taxpaying American citizen, dammit.

Romney? Romney isn't any more conservative than McCain.

In my opinion, Romney is a great Conservative. Not perfect, but great. McCain is as conservative as Bush. Mitt is as conservative as me. McCain is to the left of Bush, which is pretty bad.


Posted by: Bart at January 31, 2008 09:05 AM (ZtN1H)

68 We've had 2 mild downturn in the economy in the last  25 years, its time for a Change!™

Posted by: Acme Public Relations at January 31, 2008 09:09 AM (evdj2)


67 - runninrebel: you're not going to have a "backlash" in a majority population that is thoroughly Democrat. Which - unsurprisingly enough - started seriously happenning just about 40 years ago (I'm an actual Californio: born in the great agricultural Central Valley: so I've watched this occur), due to immigration. And has been - and is being - augmented by illegal immigration from Mexico.

So your observation simply isn't analogous in the case of CA viz the 50/50 nation.

As VDH says, Mexifornia isn't your typical scenario.


...try again?

Posted by: davis,br at January 31, 2008 09:13 AM (q4usA)

70 In 1988, I worked for the George H.W. Bush campaign in Maryland. It was my first time to be part of a campaign on the inside. The national campaign HQ would give us no money and very few resources, no surrogate speakers, etc. Their reason was the resources and people were limited and Maryland had dem to repub registration of 11 to 1 dem. so GHWB would have no chance and therefore no reason to waste precious resources in Maryland.

We had a terrific group of people who dedicated themselves to working 16-18 hours a day. Many were first timers like myself, who came in after the Convention, so there wasn't a lot of time. Well, long story short, on election night GHWB won Maryland. We were too new to politics to realize how naive we'd been not to doubt this outcome, we just worked hard. The national HQ could not believe we did it.

There is plenty of time, even if we can't get fully mobilized by Super Tues., there are still 900 delegates up for grabs after that.

Romney is going to win in Utah, Idaho, Montana, maybe Colorado, and I wouldn't write off Arizona either, IF enough people really got off their butts and went to work. The South isn't entirely lost either, it is just a matter of pointing a few salient facts out to the voters there. Romney already got the endorsement of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, which shocked me. Even Arkansas is not big fans of Huck.

Go register for Team Mitt at his website, sign up to make calls or give a few dollars, or volunteer for one of their HQs. Start writing letters to the editor, not just posting on blogs.

BTW, the Presidient Hinckley funeral in Salt Lake is 11 am Saturday, Romney will be there. It will be broadcast worldwide and translated into 69 different languages. They expect a couple hundred thou to view his body in the next two days. I think this is why Romney isn't running his ads in there yet. People can see that Mormons aren't the devil and that they really are very Christian.

Anyway, if you really don't want McCain, then boots on the ground is the way to prevent him from rolling to the nomination. Remember, until a couple of months ago, most people beyond New England never even heard of Mitt Romney. A good friend of mine told me the other day she was voting for Obama because of Oprah, I said I was voting for Romney. She looked confused and then said, "oh he's that Mormon guy right?" When I showed her his picture, it was as if she was seeing it for the first time. She said, "oh I didn't know he was so good looking, I pictured him short and bald." That is lack of name recognition here in So. Calif. Believe me, half the McCain voters are voting for him because it is the only name they recognize besides Hillary's and now Obama's because of Oprah.

Even if Romney doesn't "win" a big state like Calif., he will take a hefty share of delegates away.

The worst thing we can do is give up. Don't be a defeatocrat, take a lesson from GWB and set a course and work toward the goal. Make the goal preventing John McCain from getting the 1191 delegates he needs to secure the nomination, rather than just winning it outright. At least that way, you know you will have a say at the Convention. Romney isn't going to go back on his word about things we should really care about, like the potential 3 Supreme Court slots that are coming open in the next term. McCain is NOT trustworthy on this count.

Go Mitt!

Posted by: Sara at January 31, 2008 09:54 AM (Wi/N0)

71 Davis:

Yeah, I know there isn't going to be a backlash. That was sarcasm. And I didn't make an analogy. I was talking about CA.

It's not a 50/50 nation anyway. It's more like 30+ R 30+ D 20+ I, for whatever that's worth. But the idea that there will be a backlash nationally that will favor conservatives is only wishful thinking. There's no way to know what will happen and there's no way to know who would be able to take advantage of it if it did happen.

Posted by: runninrebel at January 31, 2008 09:57 AM (0n9wc)

72 See I post the above suggestions and the next blog post I read tells me:

"Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney plans to run a
"significant" level of television ads in California and other states
that vote Tuesday in essentially a national primary, aides said
Thursday, signaling a willingness to aggressively try to derail
Republican front-runner John McCain."

Posted by: Sara at January 31, 2008 10:03 AM (Wi/N0)

73 Popular vote in CA isn't a big deal. Delegates are handed out on a congressional district by district basis. So there's 55 primary races (withi proportianal allocation in each contest) in CA, not 1. For me, that means no protest vote for Fred. my itty bitty vote might turn into one extra delegate for mitt and one less for 'cain.

Somebody mentioned the pragmatic, practical types will pick McCain because he's more electable. Bah. If McCain had been pragmatic and practical he would have played along with the Vietnamese torturers and gotten out of prison earlier or had an easier time of it. He did the NON-practical thing (fight) and triumphed.

Posted by: Arthur at January 31, 2008 11:35 AM (3+0IS)


 "30+ R 30+ D 20+ I"

Quick, we lost 20%, no wonder were up shit creek.

Posted by: Fred at January 31, 2008 01:37 PM (ESiy4)

75 After going from Rudy, to Fred and back to Rudy. I now plan to vote for Romney on Tuesday. Todays endorsement of McLame by the NY GOP has finalized the rest of election 08 for me.  Immediately after voting for Mitt. I will mail in the same form I threatened the State GOP with when Shamnesty was being forced down our throats. Thats the one that changes my party from GOP to Conservative. And in November. If the GOP candidate is McLame or Huccubus. My vote for President will be a write in.  The only decision left is whether it will be Richard Hurtz, Michael Hunt or Jack Mihoff.

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