October 30, 2004

Prediction Thread
— Ace

An electoral college map is here to help keep you in your prognostication.

Larry Sabato's own map and current prediction.

Make your predictions:

House GOP Gains or Losses. Currently 227-207 with 1 independent. Sabato predicts the outcome will be something like 232-235 R to 200-203 D. Note how many seats you think the GOP will pick-up or lose (+5, -3, etc.)

Senate GOP Gains or Losses. Currently 51-48+a Vermont douchebag. Recent predictions seem to call for about 3 net GOP gains in the Senate. Again, call the pick-up or loss (+2, -3).

Presidential Election: Popular vote share. Call the percent of the popular vote that Bush will receive to the nearest half-percent.

Presidential Election: Electoral Share. Call the number of electors you think Bush will win.

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration. Call the time you think that the first of the major broadcast and cable news networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC (sorta) and Fox) declare an overall winner in the contest. Be aware-- they're not going to do so very quickly this time around.

Presidential Election: Swing States! Call who will win the following states: OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, WI, PA, CO, NJ, HI, NM, NH.

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction! Make your bold call of an interesting happening that will occur on Election Night. Will James Carville put another trash can on his head? Will Peter Jennings announce that "Tonight the nation had a temper-tantrum"? Will Dan Rather break down and demand, "What the fuck are you people-- morons?" Humorous and serious predictions welcome.

Overall winner decided by me.

Prize? You get to lead the line when we do a mass "Victory Lap" through the comments of the blogosphere. Plus the usual dumb non-prizes.

Clarification: Cedarford reminds me that Louisiana probably isn't electing a Senator on Nov. 2; it's probably just forwarding two men to a runoff to take place in December. This sort of screws everything up, because, of course, I want to judge a winner shortly after the election, if not that night.

So, because the Republican in LA is favored to win, I'm going to assume that Vitter will win so long as he makes it at least to the run-off (which he will). This is a sorta goofy workaround, since the person who predicts "right" by my rule may turn out to be wrong, but I don't know how else to handle it, given that people have already made predictions, and I don't want everyone to modify their predictions based on this wrinkle.

So I guess we'll just take Vitter as an in-the-bag pick-up for the Republicans, at least as far as these predictions, even though he's really not.

Another clarification: When picking the time of declaration, include a time zone, or else I'll just assume you mean Eastern time. Eastern Standard or Eastern Daylight, whatever the hell we'll be in on Nov. 2. I can never keep that straight.

Yes, very presumptuous of me and all. Very East-Coast-Centric. But we need a default. We can't have this prediction contest descending into a two-week disputed affair with the threat of outright political violence.

Help a Blogger Out: Try to respond to the questions specifically posed, or else it's going to be difficult for me to include you as a candidate for the actual winner. Like, don't just tell me which states Kerry will win. Tell me which of the states I asked about he'll win.

And yeah-- I should have asked about Oregon. It slipped my mind.

Posted by: Ace at 03:19 PM | Comments (38)
Post contains 589 words, total size 4 kb.

1 I think the prize should be a free blogad for a week on your site. :-)

And, I'm not saying that 'cause I want one, anyone that knows me knows I'm not making a prediction.

Posted by: Karol at October 30, 2004 04:01 PM (yj7bW)

2 House GOP Gains or Losses: Big win for the Right GOP+6 so 233-201
CBS reports that this was a loss for the GOP as they failed miserably to pick up all of the available seats.

Senate GOP Gains or Losses: Net GOP +1 Fortunately, it still requires the Dems to pick a new minority leader.

Presidential Election: Popular vote share: Bush 52% (although because of election night shenanigans it will never be proven.

Presidential Election: Electoral Share: Bush 253 Kerry 238

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration: Jan 15th Unless you mean declaring themselves winners as well as smarter than the rest of us. They have each already done that.

Presidential Election: Swing States! Call who will win the following states:
OH (too close to call-disputed)
FL (R-disputed)
PA (too close to call-disputed)
(2 of 3 successfully held up – other goes to Bush)

MI(D), MN(D),IA(R), WI(R), CO(R), NJ(D), HI(D), NM(R), NH(R).

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction:

Before the polls even close, an avalanche of lawsuits are filed in Florida, Ohio and PA. This continues for the next several days. Mired in a web of both real and completely bogus claims, the court system is tied up to the point that at least 2 of these states are compromised beyond determination. Vicious rhetoric sullies the system through the soft December 15th deadline, and up to the hard Jan 3rd one.
Jan3: the new congress meets for the first time and counts the collected votes – since neither candidate won the required 270 in time, the entire election is thrown out. Congress is charged with determining the next President and V.P. All pending lawsuits are dropped, as they are moot (at least as soon as the lawyer fees stop rolling in)
House democrats cite the continued dispute over the election outcome and the unfair and obscure way that the Constitution declares that the House votes for president. Refusing to participate in what is a certain Bush victory, House Democrats refuse to vote and thus deny the 2/3 quorum necessary to act. No one is elected president, although this vote will be pending for the entire term.
Citing the same reasoning as the House, The Senate democrats refuse to participate in the nomination of Dick Cheney as V.P. Without a 2/3 quorum the Senate cannot act.
Noon on Jan21 Denny Hastert is sworn in as our acting President for the next 2-4 years.
Democrats declare this a compromise victory as “Anybody but Bush” is in charge.

Posted by: Rachmeg at October 30, 2004 09:14 PM (3aBoR)

3 I think we're back... Test test...

Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 30, 2004 09:18 PM (+S1Ft)

4 Okay... what the hell...

House- R+6 233-201
Senate- R+4 55-44+vd (daschle gone)
Pop Vote- Bush 52.3%
Elec Vote- Bush 300
Time of Declaration- 23:11 CST
Swing- Bush picks up OH, FL, MN, IA, CO, NM & NH

Random: Kerry concedes, then calls Bush back to say he didn't- oh wait, that was Gore... Dan Rather will use the words "Dog" and "Hunt" in a sentence... Peter Jennings will raise an eyebrow and ask "what does this mean?"... Tom Brokaw will blame the bloggers... Michael Moore will call the American People "stupid"...Terry McAwful will, at 0700 Wednesday, say "we're keeping our options open as far as the Presidency, but overall a great night for the democrats!"

Posted by: Jack Grey at October 30, 2004 09:56 PM (Jq8H8)

5 Presidential Election: Electoral Share: Bush 253 Kerry 238

What happened to the rest of the states? Did Nader get 'em?

As long as no one is saying 'the campaign continues' on Wed. (like a Gore advisor did last time), that's all I need out of this election.

Posted by: Karol at October 30, 2004 10:04 PM (yj7bW)

6 Okey Dokey:

House GOP gains only three.
Senate GOP also three.
Popular Vote: W gets 52%.
Electoral College: W pulls 293 electors.
Time: 9:44 PM Eastern. Once all of Florida comes in for W, its going to be hard for the media not to admit the obvious.
Swing states:
HI, k
NM, K, but with significant allegations of Democratic fraud;

Oddball prediction: Major voting fraud and lawsuits, but little actual polling-place anarchy.

More than one major anchor will insinuate what Cronkite came out and said--that Osama's tape is helping Bush and isn't that conveeeenient?

Dan rather will announce his retirement.

Posted by: See-Dubya at October 31, 2004 12:13 AM (PUZhO)

7 House GOP +2
Senate GOP +2
Bush 53% of the popular vote
Electoral College Bush-314 Kerry 224
Swing states OH(R), FL(R), MI(D),MN(R), IA(R), WI(R), PA(D), CO(R), NJ(D), HI(R), NM(R), NH(D)
The race is called at 11:30 pm EST for Bush

Story of the night: Bill O'Reilly's attempts to engage Mary Mapes in phone sex is mistakenly sent out on the satellite feed...

Posted by: BrewFan at October 31, 2004 02:03 AM (9Q1G3)

8 House: GOP +4
Senate: GOP +2
Popular vote: Bush 51.5
Kerry 48
electoral college: Bush: 279
Kerry: 261

Race called: 9:00 AM 11/3 (Hawaii goes Bush)

Swing States: OH(K) FL(B) MI(K) MN(K) IA(B) WI(B)

Kerry concedes Dec. 10 after unsuccessful effort to keep electoral college from meeting.

Posted by: superhawk at October 31, 2004 02:25 AM (+7VNs)

9 House: GOP +10+
Senate: GOP +5+
Popular vote: Bush 55.0
Electoral college: Bush: 350+
Race called: 1:00 AM 11/3
Swing States: OH(B) FL(B) MI(K) MN(K) IA(B) WI(B)

Daschele sent packing 55-45. Cries during concession speech. Kerry concedes 10:30am 11/3, no crying.

The final nail in the coffin of liberalism.

Posted by: HFreeman at October 31, 2004 03:17 AM (Sx/i2)

10 Bush wins with 290-300 EV taking Wisonsin, Iowa and New Mexico. The GOP picks up two seats in both the Senate and the House. Race called at 11:05 PM.

Posted by: Barry N. Johnson at October 31, 2004 03:21 AM (MvYD0)

11 House: +4
Senate: +2
Popular Vote: Bush - 51.2
Electoral College: Bush - 290
Swing States:
OH - Bush
FL - Bush
MI - Kerry
MN - Bush
IA - Bush
WI - Bush
PA - Kerry
CO - Bush
NJ - Kerry
HI - Kerry
NM - Bush

Posted by: Scout at October 31, 2004 03:26 AM (ve4hB)

12 That electoral map is a blast to play with! Here are my predictions:

SENATE - GOP +3 (Thune defeats Daschle in the first big "collective media head explosion" moment. Pete Coors wins too, and we all celebrate with a few brewskis)

POPULAR VOTE - Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Nader 2%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE - Bush 296, Kerry 242
RACE CALLED: December 15th, noon, officially, thanks to lawsuits in FL, WIS, MIN, and NM.

SWING STATES - OH (K), FL (B), MIN (B), IA (B), WIS (B), PA (K), CO (B), NJ (B), HI (K), NM (K), NH (K)

The numbers all work out. Winning "shocking" states like NJ and MIN put W. over the top and compensate for the losses of OH and PA.

THE BIG CONTROVERSEY - There are more votes counted in New Mexico than there are actual residents of the state (!).

Posted by: TSL at October 31, 2004 03:30 AM (Lwq2s)

13 Also, I think the election will be decided Tuesday night. Bush will have gained enough electoral votes that litigation would be (a) unnecessary, and (b) would only serve to backfire on the Dems by making them look like Sore Losermen. Kerry will concede Tuesday night sometime before midnight. He will be wearing a blue blazer when he does so. Terezza will be laoded on a combination of tranq's and booze, and will say something nonsensical, followed by a teary speech about how much she misses her first husband.

Posted by: Scout at October 31, 2004 03:31 AM (ve4hB)

14 I had posted something thought provoking and pithy then your comments script ate it and said it was not currently working.

The moment is gone and I find myself unable to remember my previous brilliance.

Bush wins unless the MSM goes scorched earth and outright lies and ends what little credibility they have left.

Kerry will not contest it if it is more than a 2% margin. I do not forsee a tie, just because the odds are so freakin' off the chart and absurd. Though I do not mind because W would be installed.

I think Thune might just surprise us all and win. I think NJ will go to Kerry though not by nearly the margin they anticipate. I think Bush carries Florida soundly, but I am an optimist. Ohio I am concerned with.

I think if PA goes for bush Kerry can just go home.

Also, I think that the one sleeper issue this election is same sex marriage on 11 state ballots and that will help Bush.

Either way, we wake up the next morning with a President, god willing. If it is Kerry, I will suck it up and pray he pulls his head out of his ass and fires every single Clintonite around him. Though i think it is going to be a repeat of the Clinton years as far as foreign policy goes. You never know though, he might wake up and smell the RDX, but I doubt it.

Ok, that was much less elequent but the same basic idea.

Posted by: Jennifer at October 31, 2004 04:06 AM (TFMd3)

15 House GOP gain: +4
Senate GOP gain: +2
Bush pop vote share: 52%
Bush EV share: 295
Time of declaration: 2 am EST by NBC
Swing states won by Bush: FL, MN, IA, WI, PA, CO, NM
General prediction: I will giggle like a schoolgirl for the next four years every time I see assholes like Jon Bon Jovi, Bruce Springsteen, Katie Couric, Dave Matthews, Julia Stiles...oh I could go on forever, but you get the idea.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer at October 31, 2004 04:07 AM (Zr5Iq)

16 HOUSE - GOP +5
SENATE - GOP +2 Coors loses. Vitter v. John goes in Louisiana runoff and sucks up fatcat dollars once the election challenge Lawyers have been fed first. Daschle goes down, but Dem lawyers sue.

POPULAR VOTE - Bush 49.1%, Kerry 48.4%, Nader 1%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE - Bush 270, Kerry 268
WINNER DECLARED: Depends on the court docket schedule and who the judges secretely favor. Results and pure voting process issues in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Hawaii, NM, NJ, NY, DC, CA challenged. Despite whopping pluralities in NY, DC, and CA - Dem lawyers sue there anyways because it gives them final say and that's where surplus Dem lawyers live. Rep lawyers go to Hawaii because of the legendary golf courses. Jimmy Carter goes to the UN to request more lawyers and Venezuelan election monitors (Chavez's soldiers) be dispatched to Florida to aid recount efforts. Towards the end, the largest debt holders - China, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the EU - demand a say due to their 3 trillion in IOUs, and file with the World Bank under international law - saying they want international stewardship of Bush's reckless spending, and end to his borrowed money giveaways for the wealthy. Brazil, Paraguay, Congo countersue, saying Bush is pursuing economic policies that worked well in their nations.

SWING STATES - MI(K) 285,000 jobs lost, OH (K)265,000 jobs lost, PA (K) 168,000 jobs lost, FL (B), MIN (B), IA (B), WIS (B), CO (B), NJ (K), HI (K), NM (K), NH (K)

General Prediction - Civil War breaks out in both parties no matter who wins. Democrat Centrists vs. the Deaniacs on national security and the hate America culture taking residence in the Democratic Party. Traditional Republicans vs. the powerful but small cabal of neocons that led Bush into Adventurism, Hyperpower arrogance, incompetant Iraq postwar actions, and fiscal recklessness.

End result? Bush because the power of his special interests will triumph over the mobilized Dem groups. Hillary is delighted and ready to be the healer of the nation if Bush has another inept 4 years and stubbornly fails to change a single policy. In 2006, Bush admits that he won't - because Jesus speaks to him and tells him what to do through the vessels of Richard Perle, Grover Norquist, Texas Oilmen, and Dick Cheney.

Posted by: Cedarford at October 31, 2004 05:22 AM (6krEN)

17 Might as well throw my hat in the ring. I'm very worried this election...take the close stats in the few battleground states, combine with the usual shady tactics of the left multiplied by their crazed state today.....ugh. Not following the congressional stuff as closely, but:

House GOP Gains or Losses. +4 seats for the GOP

Senate GOP Gains or Losses. +2 seats GOP

Presidential Election: 50.5% Bush, 48% Kerry

Presidential Election: Electoral Share.
(please be wrong, please be wrong)
Bush 266
Kerry 272

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration.

This is impossible to judge, of course.....they'll be all sorts of statements that one or the other wins that won't be "official", but I'd guess around 3AM CET Wednesday Bush will concede. Bush will have the honor not to drag this thing out, although I think it may be so close that Hawaii becomes crucial, which kicks the time back a bit longer than it would normally.

Presidential Election: Swing States!


Which brings it all down to HI, which, despite the polls, I can't believe would actually end up voting for Bush.

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction!

Hmmm. What could possibly be crazy...the Dems will win, while losing the popular vote, so the MSM will be happy and the Dems will say the normal crazy stuff.....great moment for democracy, we still have a mandate from the people, hope for our troops, blah blah blah.

There's my take. I don't want to win.

Posted by: James G. at October 31, 2004 05:34 AM (a3n5N)

18 I don't think I can edit my comments, so I'll just change my wild prediction here: All of my above statements turn out true, except bush wins Hawaii, giving him 270 electoral votes, except the faithless WV voter doesn't vote Bush, thereby depriving both candidates of the required votes in the electoral college. Kerry will hang on and fight "for the people" until the end result is decided, ultimately for Bush.

Posted by: James G. at October 31, 2004 05:41 AM (a3n5N)

19 Cedarford -

Congratulations on working your standard Marxist bullshit into your predictions, but you must be slipping...

You didn't mention the Joooooooos!

Posted by: zetetic at October 31, 2004 05:57 AM (FDfZN)

20 House: GOP net +5
Senate: GOP net +2 (gain NC, SC, FL; lose IL)
Prez vote share: Bush 52 Kerry 46.5 field 1.5
E-votes: Bush 282, Kerry 256
Declaration time: 2:30am EST Nov 3
Swing states: Kerry in OH, MI, MN, PA, NJ, HI, NH; Bush in FL, IA, WI, CO, NM

Tie Breaker: Osama bin Laden files challenge in Palm Beach County

Posted by: iowahawk at October 31, 2004 06:15 AM (R5ifn)

21 If the difference between the polls and the actual vote runs something like it did in Australia, then I expect it to come in very close to what Iowahawk said. Bush 52-53, Kerry 45-46, miscellaneous 1-2. Bush 280-300 in the electoral college (bit harder to pick that one).

Law suits filed in at least 10 states.

Uncategorizable Prediction: Kerry hospitalised with mystery illness Nov. 3.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 31, 2004 06:33 AM (+S1Ft)

22 George Soros will attempt a drive-by shooting of President Bush at the inauguration from his limousine.

Posted by: D Carter at October 31, 2004 06:46 AM (4+WsX)

23 Here are my predictions.

House: NO prediction, really.
Senate: Republicans pick up three seats with LA falling for them in the runoff.
Popular Vote: Bush 52-53 percent, Kerry 45-46 percent.
Electoral College: Bush 322, Kerry 216.
Bonus Prediction!!: Kerry takes these states - ME, NH, VT, RI, MA, CT, NY, PA, DE, MD, DC, OH, IL, WA, OR, CA.
Swing States: See above. Kerry takes only PA and NH.
Election Called: 11:15 Eastern.
Super Duper Bonus Prediction(s): Brokaw calls the election for Kerry early and has to eat crow much later. The story of the night will be that the Bush landslide is an obvious and serious sign of voter fraud. Since the MSM had been telling us for over a year that the election would be close, a landslide would show that the Republicans had fixed the election. After about a week, we'll see some hard evidence that in at least one or perhaps two MSM outlets, the was an organized and purposeful effort to report the election as a close race tilting toward Kerry no matter how the exit-polling turned out.

Posted by: Jimmie at October 31, 2004 06:48 AM (wBQb5)

24 House and Senate - no prediction.

Popular vote:
Bush 54% / Kerry 44%

"Swing" states:
Kerry takes PA, OR, & NH
Bush takes NV, NM, OH, FL IA, CO, & HI

(Basically, 2000 with Bush adding IA, NM, and HI plus either MN or WI; losing NH)

Wisconsin and Minnesota are my tossups - Same EV, so I'll give one to each cuz I'm a nice guy and they have waaay too many mosquitos and biting flies for my taste.

Bush 300 / Kerry 238

I live in Sin City and have $1000 on Bush at 11/10. Small payoff, but I can taste that Ruth's Chris steak now...

Posted by: .com at October 31, 2004 07:06 AM (W1f9w)

25 House GOP Gains or Losses - +10

Senate GOP Gains or Losses - +4

Presidential Election: Popular vote share - 52%

Presidential Election: Electoral Share - 323

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration - 10pm

Presidential Election: Swing States!
OH - Bush
FL - Bush
MI - Kerry
MN - Bush
IA - Bush
WI - Bush
PA - Kerry
CO - Bush
NJ - Bush
HI - Bush
NM - Bush
NH - Kerry
OR - Bush
ME2 - Bush

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction! - Tim Russert never again pulls out his marker board after 930pm EST

Posted by: The Black Republican at October 31, 2004 08:29 AM (9VCzx)

26 Ace: your front page election prediction URL leads to the Osama/Sadr City story.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer at October 31, 2004 09:21 AM (Zr5Iq)

27 House GOP Gains or Losses - +9

Senate GOP Gains or Losses - +6

Presidential Election: Popular vote share - 60%

Presidential Election: Electoral Share - 350ish

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration - 9:05pm

Presidential Election Swing States
OH - Bush
FL - Bush
MI - Bush
MN - Bush
IA - Bush
WI - Bush
PA - Kerry
CO - Bush
NJ - Bush
HI - Bush
NM - Bush
NH - Kerry
OR - Bush
ME2 - Bush

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction - Such a dramatic Bush landslide simply must mean fraud, fraud, FRAUD! Mainstream Media leads call for a 'do-over'. Within 24 hrs. over 1000 dem. lawsuits are filed. Laurence O'Donnell shoots himself in the head on live TV.

Posted by: BAM at October 31, 2004 09:49 AM (KWSxJ)

28 House: Rep +3
Senate: Rep +1
Pop vote: Bush 49.5%
Electoral votes: 276 for Bush
Time of declaration: 10:00 a.m. EST Nov. 5
Kerry wins: OH,MI,MN,PA,NJ,NH,OR,HI
Bush wins: FL,IA,WI,CO,NM
Uncategorizable: A major public figure will be hospitalized with heart ailments

Posted by: Major Domo at October 31, 2004 10:09 AM (TaGkg)

29 I forgot the network thing --

Fox news will call it first, at 11:08 pm EST

Posted by: Scout at October 31, 2004 10:24 AM (ve4hB)

30 House GOP: +3
Senate GOP: +4
Pres. Pop Vote: 51.8
Electoral Share: 300
Pres. Election: midnight
Swing States:
Uncategorizable Prediction: Dan Rather tries to engage Bill O'Reilly in phone sex.

Posted by: KimR at October 31, 2004 12:06 PM (dkib/)

31 zetetic - with each year, more Muslims come into America, thanks to the 1965 Immigration Act. The Jooooos as you like to say, are no longer the players they once were, due to demography. Down to 2% of the vote, also neutralized somewhat by being hoisted on their own petard of open immigration by the new Muslim vote. Muslims already outnumber Jews in France, the UK, Canada, and are close in S Africa. They will surpass Jews in voting strength in the USA in about 5-7 years. And Kerry will still get 80% of the Jewish vote and campaign contributions - as he gets 80% of the Muslim vote. Even if Kerry sends Jimmuh Carter in to be his Peace Broker later.

Jews still have a large "money lead" over Muslims to influence US politician's to tilt to Israel, but that too may be neutralized in another 10-15 years. Besides, after 30 years of trying to woo Jews with pro-Israel policies and learning that 80% will stick with the Dems no matter what, Reps are frustrated, and both sides can easily make the Jewish groups a lower priority, take their voting preferences, like blacks, as a given - and spend more time on the Hispanic and Asian voters in play.

Sounds like you may be crying "Joooooos" more frequently in the future, zetetic!

Posted by: Cedarford at October 31, 2004 12:13 PM (6krEN)

32 House: GOP +4
Senate: GOP +2 (including a deeply saddened Dasshole)
President: GWB wins with 51.8%
Electoral Share: GWB 300 Lurch 238
Time of Declaration: 1:30 a.m. EST (date TBD)

Uncategorizable, unpredictable predictions:

1. Black turnout will be the lowest in decades and GWB's share will more than double 2000.

2. The GOP will easily win the GOTV contest after it becomes apparent they did a better job than the rat 527s in registering living humans.

Posted by: gary at October 31, 2004 12:36 PM (+vsQS)

33 House +3

Senate +2

Pop Vote: Bush 51% Kerry 47.87965%

EC: Bush 300 Kerry 238 call me an optimist.

Time it is called: CBS' Dan Rather will call it on Monday after the stroke of midnight in an effort to suppress the GOP vote. No, really hmm One of the Big Boys will call it shortly after midnight on Tuesday.

NM, 5
NH. 4

Election Surprise: If Bush takes NJ or PA there will be a mass suicide at the Streisand compound and Hillary Clinton will orgasm over her 08 prospects.

Posted by: Jennifer at October 31, 2004 01:25 PM (TFMd3)

34 Ace,

First off, you're aces.

OK, enough of that.

Here goes.

By the way, I am never right about this stuff, and I have given John Forbes Kerry a few states "just in case" (barring the apocalypse of a Kerry win).

House: GOP + 5
Senate: GOP +3
W: 51.5% JFK 48% Nader 0.5%
W:291 JFK:247
Election Called 23:11 CST

Outrage: Decidedly false and outlandish claims of voter disenfranchisement will be made before the polls close in the East and Midwest, depsite the fact that even if true, would not change the election's outcome (e.g. W ahead by 5% in FL).

Also, Maine will be contested for it's partial EC vote and HI will be too close to call.

NB: I really think W will win WI and PA but am too chickenshit to call it because I can barely handle the anticipatory anxiety as it is.

Posted by: MeTooThen at October 31, 2004 06:53 PM (UCuGC)

35 House: GOP +6
Senate: GOP +3 (Daschle loses)

Bush: 51.9% Kerry: 47% Who cares: 1.1%
Bush: 285 Kerry: 253

Called at: 12:05 EST

OH: R, FL: R, MI: D, MN: R, IA: R, WI: R, PA: D, CO: R, NJ: D (but closer than expected, within 2-4%), HI: R, NM: R, NH: D, OR: D, Maine's other electoral vote: R (I have no idea if that adds up to the above numbers, but frankly I don't care enough to go look.)

Of course, the Democrats will be screaming disenfranchisement by noon tomorrow, that is not a prediction. That is, as Ace would say, like saying Oliver is going to eat tomorrow.
But at some point during the night, when it becomes evident that Bush will win, one of the big three (probably Rather) will mention fraud, and it won't be connected with the Democrats.
Carville, will manage to eat his own head, while still talking. Chris Matthews will start sobbing on air, and begin screaming "Where's Zell Miller? I'll take him up on that duel!"
Russert draws a tombstone on his board with "RIP Kerry" on it after Bush wins Ohio.
Springsteen begins singing "Born in Sadr City"
The whole "cast" of the Today Show wears black on Wed.
My big surprise shocking prediction: Unfortunately, none of the actors, singers, etc. will leave the country even though they promised they would if Bush wins.

Posted by: BlueDevils at November 01, 2004 04:38 AM (V9inq)

36 Okay, here's my $0.02 worth:

House GOP Gains or Losses. GOP +4 seats

Senate GOP Gains or Losses. GOP +3 seats

Presidential Election: Popular vote share. Bush will win 49.5% of the popular vote, making it the 4th consecutive election without someone garnering 50+% of the vote.

Presidential Election: Electoral Share. Bush will win 283 electoral votes. My count is only valid before the Democrats ask the courts to change some results.

Presidential Election: Time of Declaration. If Minnesota and Iowa for Bush, the race will be over. I'm 10:45 p.m.

Presidential Election: Swing States! OH: Kerry; FL: Bush; MI: Kerry; MN: Bush; IA: Bush; WI: Bush; PA: Kerry; CO: Bush; NJ: Kerry; HI: Bush; NM: Bush; NH: Kerry.

Presidential Election: Tiebreaking Uncategorizable Prediction!
1) Dan Rather's head starts spinning around while his newsdesk levitates. Selling his soul to the Devil seemed a better alternative to calling the election for Bush.

2) Chris Matthews will announce that Florida is still up for grabs when Bush has a 20 point early lead. In an unrelated announcement, Ohio will be called for Kerry at 6 p.m.. EST

3) Brit Hume will offer the most balanced analysis of the election results, regardless of who wins.

Posted by: physics geek at November 01, 2004 06:51 AM (Xvrs7)

37 George W. Bush has bet on the pro-life people, the believers, and those who are for victory in the global war on terrorism to get out the vote for him. I'm not American, but that's my team x3. George W. Bush has not failed us. We're not going to fail him.

Slate: One Nation Under Bush (link) "I want you to stand, raise your right hands," and recite "the Bush Pledge," said Florida state Sen. Ken Pruitt. The assembled mass of about 2,000 in this Treasure Coast town about an hour north of West Palm Beach dutifully rose, arms aloft, and repeated after Pruitt: "I care about freedom and liberty. I care about my family. I care about my country. Because I care, I promise to work hard to re-elect, re-elect George W. Bush as president of the United States."

I say that's the winning team: people who care and are positively for George W. Bush. The force of those who love Bush will be greater than that of those that hate him. The humble and well-organised many will prove stronger than the billionaires of the Aspen meeting.

I say George W. Bush will win with at least 55% of the popular vote and at least 300 Electoral College votes.

The Republicans will gain in the legislature too, at least two seats in each house. John Thune will defeat Tom Daschle, the leader of the obstructionists. It will be a solid endorsement for Bush all along the line. It will be a win like John Howard's win, only more so.

This is not an entry in a betting pool. I am unwilling to set any upper limit on success.

Posted by: David Blue at November 01, 2004 03:48 PM (RrrvW)

38 I predict 296 for Bush. That's every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html

For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That's 348. Which one first? The Horserace Blog's custom poll aggregate (after throwing out polls whose methodology he rejects) has Bush ahead in PA, 47.53% to 46.87% with +/- 1.7% margin of error.

Popular Vote: Bush 50, Kerry 48, Nader+Other 2

Senate +2, House +5

Posted by: Pajamasphere at November 02, 2004 05:47 AM (5MUxm)

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