October 30, 2010

Plotting Up Predictions of GOP Gains in the House
— Geoff

A lot of predictions of GOP gains in the House have been floating about. Without any ado, here's a graph of the predictions published in the past month.

Predictions-of-GOP-Gains-in-HouseSmall.gif

I'm sure this is no surprise to anybody, but I thought it would be nice to be able to see it. On a t-shirt. In liberal coffee houses and at rallies for Democratic candidates.

Posted by: Geoff at 08:50 AM | Comments (51)
Post contains 80 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Low. Way low.

Posted by: Al at October 30, 2010 08:55 AM (MzQOZ)

2 over 100

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at October 30, 2010 08:57 AM (jbCcb)

3 Tattooed on Rosa De Lauro's face to hide the fugly.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 30, 2010 08:58 AM (lN56Y)

4
3000 percent!

Posted by: Dang Straights at October 30, 2010 08:58 AM (tLPCU)

5 The latest polling that I pulled from my ass shows that the dems should net about 10 seats.

Posted by: Old Greg at October 30, 2010 09:01 AM (JJSIm)

6 LOL, the RCP range is actually 45 to 85. Off the chart high!

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 09:05 AM (/jbAw)

7 O/T but relevant (at least for me, and I'm damned selfish):  has anyone experienced any more virus problems over at HotAir.  A few months ago a whole mess of Morons got infected by HA.  I haven't been back since, but I'd like to.  Scared shitless though, as it cost $200 to fix.

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at October 30, 2010 09:05 AM (jbCcb)

8 The latest polling that I pulled from my ass shows that the dems should net about 10 seats.

And by that you mean there will be at least 10 dems security will have to net to remove them from their seat after they lose in the election. Oh and Liza Muwhoski.BIRM.


Posted by: Liberal Hipster at October 30, 2010 09:06 AM (tf9Ne)

9
Did they include all 57 states?

Posted by: Dang Straights at October 30, 2010 09:06 AM (tLPCU)

10 Here's to the RCP not being aggressive enough [takes a nice swill of ValuRite]

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 09:06 AM (JJSIm)

11 The number is over 70, and my cat told me to kill you.

Posted by: David Berkowitz at October 30, 2010 09:09 AM (OR7cZ)

12 Do any of the major polls factor in cheating, corruption and such in the voting process? How much of an edge does that give the Democrats?

Posted by: This is serious stuff at October 30, 2010 09:09 AM (3W1+C)

13 The Cook Political Report is a parody, right?

Posted by: eman at October 30, 2010 09:14 AM (5/qO3)

14 These polls do not know what is coming. they have Buck tied in CO. Despite the fact the republicans are on place to cast between 80,000-100,000 more ballots (they are at 52,000 or so lead with atleast 45% the expected ballots not in or coming from Election Day.) Republicans only have a 60,000 overall voter register lead.

Posted by: Paul8148 at October 30, 2010 09:15 AM (ldND5)

15 No, they said 48 to 60 with the possibility of many more.

Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2010 09:16 AM (Ew1k4)

16 Charlie Cook doesn't stick his neck out, does he?

Posted by: nickless at October 30, 2010 09:18 AM (MMC8r)

17 Off topic, but is anybody else noticing how incredibly white this moonbat rally is?

Posted by: the peanut gallery at October 30, 2010 09:18 AM (NurK6)

18
I should mention that all the bars have 0.5 added to each side, so that single-number predictions will show up on the chart.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 09:20 AM (Oxm+X)

19 I'm sticking w/ my seventy-five + prediction, anybody want to bet a case of tapioca pudding and a fifth of valu-rite?

Posted by: connielu at October 30, 2010 09:23 AM (vVy67)

20 I'm guessing the bottom two polls are accounting for Democrat vote fraud.

Posted by: Steve Skubinna at October 30, 2010 09:23 AM (L59p+)

21 From John Boehner via FB:

President Obama recently referred to Americans who disagree with him as "our enemies." Mr. President, there's a word for fellow Americans with the audacity to speak up in defense of freedom, the Constitution, and the values of limited government that made our country great. We don't call them "enemies." We call them patriots.

Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at October 30, 2010 09:24 AM (Yq+qN)

22 Do any of the major polls factor in cheating, corruption and such in the voting process? How much of an edge does that give the Democrats?

It's between 2% and 5% depending on locale
Highest in areas where the democrats have power already

When I was a kid my Mom would drive a car load of minority voters to several precincts where they would have their name registered to a fictitious address but no ID.
They had to let them vote.
There were lots of volunteers who did this.

Posted by: Sgt Rock at October 30, 2010 09:29 AM (H+LJc)

23 If Barney Frank loses his seat, who will help him find it? Will there be a PAC to 'help restore Barney Frank's seat'?

Posted by: cali grump at October 30, 2010 09:33 AM (hL0k8)

24 Anyone else just hear that Barry's headed back to DE on Monday? 

Hmmm......

Posted by: Editor at October 30, 2010 09:33 AM (YX6i/)

25 Charlie "Cookiepuss" Cook

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 30, 2010 09:33 AM (2MGtW)

26 All I know is after the joys of ball-dipping in pudding, apple butter, hot sauce or the unguent of one's choice, we have to hold the victors accountable at all times. No backsliding. No compromising. We have only just begun to fight. This ain't Hiroshima 1945, It's the Dolittle raid 1942. And don't you forget it! Now, VICTORY!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 09:34 AM (9Cooa)

27 Based on enthusiasm at the Stewart rally, I suspect Dem turnout may be  *light*.

Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2010 09:43 AM (Ew1k4)

28

Rarejazzcongress.com has 71

Jay Cost: could be over 80

Strata-sphere.com: could be over 80

Democrat defections appear considerably underestimated.

I believe around 90, and Senate 11

Posted by: Dr Felter at October 30, 2010 09:52 AM (sdEp3)

29 I have an etiquette question.

What is the proper temperature for the pudding in order to get the best immersion experience possible?  Should it be lightly warmed in the microwave or perhaps chilled in the freezer for a few minutes before immersion?

As a faithful moron, I should know this already but, alas, my former education appears to have failed me. So, please, answer my question with kindness and not sneers and jeers.  I think at this epic moment, it is a righteous thing to ensure the pudding is "served" at the proper temperature.

After all, an event like this doesn't come along very often.

Posted by: Full Moon at October 30, 2010 09:52 AM (DtbEv)

30 I wish people wouldn't mention "Barney Frank's seat."  Contemplating that kinda creeps me out.

Posted by: Jeroboam at October 30, 2010 09:54 AM (gjmQi)

31 75 or more is my prediction.

Posted by: Holger at October 30, 2010 09:54 AM (V9Q+f)

32

House: 95+ Seats

Senate: 13 Seats

A girl can dream, can't she?

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 30, 2010 10:16 AM (rilJD)

33 Is that the Cuzan and Lewis-Beck are spot on.  Dem majority for sure!

Posted by: Greg spambot 07 at October 30, 2010 10:16 AM (pELFl)

34 The only real poll that counts is the one taken on Tuesday, at the ballot box. That will tell the story of what will happen. All of the rest are just wild guesses. Oh yeah, watch the state controlled media try to hedge on the exit polling; the way they did for Lurch in 2004.

Posted by: Stan at October 30, 2010 10:18 AM (N1Gru)

35 There isn't going to be nearly enough exit polling, we're going to just have to wait for the returns.

Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2010 10:24 AM (Ew1k4)

36 Dems doing a good job in early voting in NV.  From National Review Online...

"The Democrats had another good turnout day in Clark County on Friday. They now have a 25,000 raw vote lead which is nearly a nine point lead relative to total registration and about four points under their registration advantage of 13 percent. Republicans still hold the overall turnout lead relative to registration in Clark and Washoe counties combined, but that edge is just under 4 percent. Democrats have a 22,000 urban vote lead when Washoe County is factored in. "

Posted by: Greg at October 30, 2010 10:27 AM (huyI8)

37 24 If Barney Frank loses his seat, who will help him find it? Will there be a PAC to 'help restore Barney Frank's seat'?

Barney's seat has other problems - it's been too easy to find IYKWIMAITYD

Posted by: Barney's Proctologist at October 30, 2010 10:30 AM (UOcNk)

38 From Charlie Cook..."For Rs, see a "net gain for Rs of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7-9 seats." Odds of winning Sen. majority "are now non-existent."

Posted by: Greg at October 30, 2010 10:31 AM (huyI8)

39 ...Will there be a PAC to 'help restore Barney Frank's seat'?...

Ewwww that's gonna take a good surgeon experienced in gerbil extraction.  Very expensive.  X-Ray here

Posted by: Richard Gere at October 30, 2010 10:32 AM (pELFl)

40
Barney's seat has other problems - it's been too easy to find IYKWIMAITYD

It is, in the parlance of modern physics, a strange attractor.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 10:38 AM (Oxm+X)

41 There will be a wave, whether you like it or not.

Posted by: Nate at October 30, 2010 10:40 AM (y3oht)

42 More like the 'Cook County Political Report'

Posted by: Mudshark at October 30, 2010 11:09 AM (DlLyT)

43 41
Barney's seat has other problems - it's been too easy to find IYKWIMAITYD

It is, in the parlance of modern physics, a stranger attractor.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 03:38 PM (Oxm+X)


FTFY!

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 12:17 PM (tJjm/)

44

Is there a similar chart for the Senate? Seems like the House is practically a "done deal".

Last I heard (weeks ago) was that it was about a 1-in-3 shot at the Senate. It must have changed by now? Has it gone downhill? NV seems decent, but DE is still in the toilet (I think) and CA ain't looking so good.

Posted by: Optimizer at October 30, 2010 01:12 PM (2lTU+)

45 How many seats do we need to impeach the antichrist?

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 30, 2010 02:12 PM (9cflz)

46 "How many seats do we need to impeach the antichrist?"

Why would you want to?  Hussein's stupidity is the best asset the Conservatives have.

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