August 30, 2004

Now... Michigan?
— Ace

So suggests this article. It's sort of vague, but it seems that the Bush camp suggested this. The most recent poll, cited in the article, has Kerry up by three.

I don't know... I remember the days of "Bush within striking distance of winning California" in 2000. I wouldn't call these sorts of statements lies; they're tactical bluffs. I think Michigan actually is pretty doable-- its unemployment rate is now pretty low -- but I will have no more of Karl Rove's much-vaunted "internal polling."

Hooey on his internal polling. Hooey I say.

Related by "Shadowy Connections": If the pollster John Zogby really believes Kerry's up by 4.5 as his most recent poll "shows," why is his brother -- Arab-American lobbyist James Zogby -- crying about Kerry being behind?

Don't these guys talk?

Posted by: Ace at 10:11 PM | Comments (9)
Post contains 137 words, total size 1 kb.

1 As a wolverine, I'd be skeptical that Bush could win Michigan considering that we're super unionized. It's going to depend a lot on what happens up in Macomb and Oakland Counties (north Detroit suburbs).

But I suppose anything's possible.

Posted by: marc at August 31, 2004 04:49 AM (oLZks)

2 If Bush wins Michigan, it'll be a landslide--350 or more electoral votes, and he'll have to beat a corrupt state machine to do it.

I don't think it's possible.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 31, 2004 04:56 AM (HU9jH)

3 Um, I'm in a union, and I'm voting for Bush. What's more, I know I'm not veen close to alone.

I think union membership used to be a far better predictor of voting patterns than it is now. It may have some utility as an indicator, but I think it's minimal.

Posted by: Rocketeer at August 31, 2004 06:14 AM (0PSV4)

4 Read this story:


[edited by ace]

Kerry is not too popular among union voters.

Posted by: Mark at August 31, 2004 06:32 AM (C54d0)

5 Zogby also mentions that Kerry and Bush are in a dead heat here in Virginia. I will grant you that Northern Virginia has become horribly leftist over the years. SOmething to do with the proximity to DC and all, I guess. But Bob Dole won this state by 4% when Clinton won nationally by 8%. Unless the Dem's can somehow magically erase all of the military and rural votes in this state, there is no way in hell that Kerry grabs the 13 electoral votes. One caveat: if Kerry wins Virginia, Bush gets clobbered by a huge margin, rivaling the Dukakis ass-whipping.

Posted by: physics geek at August 31, 2004 07:20 AM (Xvrs7)

6 Nicholas - I think you made the point I was trying to make better than me.

Rocketeer - I hope you're right. I've probably got something of a warped view, seeing as how I spent about 5 years working in the Michigan House of Reps and often had to deal with union members who seemed to only believe what was printed in the last UAW/MEA/(insert random union here) newsletter, and could not be convinced otherwise or reasoned with in any way.

I do know that many union members do not vote in lockstep with the Union leadership, but it's still a formidable force in MI politics, especially in SE Michigan/metro Detroit, which is where the majority of votes are.

Posted by: marc at August 31, 2004 08:26 AM (oLZks)

7 A little late on this ... but MI sucks out loud right now. I live in Detroit, and really ... you have a town of un-energized Dem voters. They pull that Democrap ticket because that is what they ALWAYS do - ZOMBIES, they are. I even stood in line behind someone (last presidential election) who was explained by an election official to just vote "straight ticket" ... and you know which ticket that was. I was in Ann Arbor yesterday -and the full force Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers are everywhere (you do NOT see them in Detroit.) By the time I left, I was so full of pent-up irritation, that I ended up yelling at some kids who where carrying a KErry sign down the street. I felt a bit better after that.

Posted by: Carin at September 01, 2004 05:06 AM (LjGxe)

8 Medsanur Türkiyenin yeni medikalcilik alanındaki yükselen firmalardan biridir. Cerrahi el aletleri, laparoskopi, tek kullanımlık sarf malzemeleri ve çelik demirbaş hastane aletleri üretmekte olup macaristanın medikal firması balazsi endoscope'nin türkiye disbiritör'dür medikal ürünler ve tıbbi malzemler alanında kaliteli ürün yelpazesi ile türkiyede bayilik dağıtımı yapmakta olup kendi fabrika ürünlerini pazarlamaktadır.

Posted by: medikal ürünler at March 07, 2010 04:06 PM (VbasM)

9 I think you made the point I was trying to make better than me.
I think union membership used to be a far better predictor of voting patterns than it is now. It may have some utility as an indicator, but I think it's minimal.

Posted by: kluban at August 17, 2010 02:28 AM (Yg9Vb)

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