March 30, 2007

Michael Crichton On Global Warming
— Ace

Justine Levine at Patterico states what he does and doesn't believe about "global warming, and links to a terrific Crichton speech on the subject. It's old, yeah, but awesome. I've linked one of these before; one was new to me.

Some of his links are here, and pretty much the only way to punctuate these is with his final "That just happened!" clip from Talledega Nights.

Links and some excerpts under the fold. The speeches are worth reading in full, as is the interview on Charlie Rose and a debate he took part in quite recently. (The Charlie Rose interview is fascinating in the initial part of the interview, as Crichton discusses his next book, called, um, Next. Not about global warming, but really interesting.)

But here's a flavor of them.

"Aliens Cause Global Warming." It's a funny title, but he's serious, in a way. Worth reading just to see the linkage -- kind of like that old BBC show "Connections" where the narrator would jump from this discovery to that one, except here he's connecting up bullshit psuedoscience.

Flashback to "Nuclear Winter." Paul Ehrlich championed it -- he of "Global Cooling," and now lately of "Global Warming."

[1n 1983,] five scientists including Richard Turco and Carl Sagan published a paper in Science called "Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions." This was the so-called TTAPS report, which attempted to quantify more rigorously the atmospheric effects, with the added credibility to be gained from an actual computer model of climate.

At the heart of the TTAPS undertaking was another equation, never specifically expressed, but one that could be paraphrased as follows:

Ds = Wn Ws Wh Tf Tb Pt Pr Pe… etc

(The amount of tropospheric dust=# warheads x size warheads x warhead detonation height x flammability of targets x Target burn duration x Particles entering the Troposphere x Particle reflectivity x Particle endurance…and so on.)

The similarity to the Drake equation is striking. As with the Drake equation [an "equation" which determines the number of inhabited worlds containing intelligent life we can communicate, basically a series of unknown variables multiplied by each other, and hence a useless equation], none of the variables can be determined. None at all. The TTAPS study addressed this problem in part by mapping out different wartime scenarios and assigning numbers to some of the variables, but even so, the remaining variables were-and are-simply unknowable. Nobody knows how much smoke will be generated when cities burn, creating particles of what kind, and for how long. No one knows the effect of local weather conditions on the amount of particles that will be injected into the troposphere. No one knows how long the particles will remain in the troposphere. And so on.

And remember, this is only four years after the OTA study concluded that the underlying scientific processes were so poorly known that no estimates could be reliably made. Nevertheless, the TTAPS study not only made those estimates, but concluded they were catastrophic.

According to Sagan and his co-workers, even a limited 5,000 megaton nuclear exchange would cause a global temperature drop of more than 35 degrees Centigrade, and this change would last for three months. The greatest volcanic eruptions that we know of changed world temperatures somewhere between .5 and 2 degrees Centigrade. Ice ages changed global temperatures by 10 degrees. Here we have an estimated change three times greater than any ice age. One might expect it to be the subject of some dispute.

But Sagan and his co-workers were prepared, for nuclear winter was from the outset the subject of a well-orchestrated media campaign. The first announcement of nuclear winter appeared in an article by Sagan in the Sunday supplement, Parade. The very next day, a highly-publicized, high-profile conference on the long-term consequences of nuclear war was held in Washington, chaired by Carl Sagan and Paul Ehrlich, the most famous and media-savvy scientists of their generation. Sagan appeared on the Johnny Carson show 40 times. Ehrlich was on 25 times. Following the conference, there were press conferences, meetings with congressmen, and so on. The formal papers in Science came months later.

This is not the way science is done, it is the way products are sold.

The real nature of the conference is indicated by these artists' renderings of the effect of nuclear winter.

I cannot help but quote the caption for figure 5: "Shown here is a tranquil scene in the north woods. A beaver has just completed its dam, two black bears forage for food, a swallow-tailed butterfly flutters in the foreground, a loon swims quietly by, and a kingfisher searches for a tasty fish." Hard science if ever there was.

...

Once you abandon strict adherence to what science tells us, once you start arranging the truth in a press conference, then anything is possible. In one context, maybe you will get some mobilization against nuclear war. But in another context, you get Lysenkoism. In another, you get Nazi euthanasia. The danger is always there, if you subvert science to political ends.

That is why it is so important for the future of science that the line between what science can say with certainty, and what it cannot, be drawn clearly-and defended.

...


At the conference in Washington, during the question period, Ehrlich was reminded that after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, scientists were quoted as saying nothing would grow there for 75 years, but in fact melons were growing the next year. So, he was asked, how accurate were these findings now?

Ehrlich answered by saying "I think they are extremely robust. Scientists may have made statements like that, although I cannot imagine what their basis would have been, even with the state of science at that time, but scientists are always making absurd statements, individually, in various places. What we are doing here, however, is presenting a consensus of a very large group of scientists…"

I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.

Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period.

Finally, I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way.

He recounts an attempt by the Nazis to discredit the fled Einstein, by having 200 -- two hundred! A consensus! -- of German scientists denounce him as a charlatan and an incompetent. When asked about these 200 -- two hundred! -- scientists who agreed he was all wet, Einstein said, "It only takes one to prove me wrong."

"Environmentalism as a Religion:"

I studied anthropology in college, and one of the things I learned was that certain human social structures always reappear. They can't be eliminated from society. One of those structures is religion. Today it is said we live in a secular society in which many people---the best people, the most enlightened people---do not believe in any religion. But I think that you cannot eliminate religion from the psyche of mankind. If you suppress it in one form, it merely re-emerges in another form. You can not believe in God, but you still have to believe in something that gives meaning to your life, and shapes your sense of the world. Such a belief is religious.

Today, one of the most powerful religions in the Western World is environmentalism. Environmentalism seems to be the religion of choice for urban atheists. Why do I say it's a religion? Well, just look at the beliefs. If you look carefully, you see that environmentalism is in fact a perfect 21st century remapping of traditional Judeo-Christian beliefs and myths.

There's an initial Eden, a paradise, a state of grace and unity with nature, there's a fall from grace into a state of pollution as a result of eating from the tree of knowledge, and as a result of our actions there is a judgment day coming for us all. We are all energy sinners, doomed to die, unless we seek salvation, which is now called sustainability. Sustainability is salvation in the church of the environment. Just as organic food is its communion, that pesticide-free wafer that the right people with the right beliefs, imbibe.

Eden, the fall of man, the loss of grace, the coming doomsday---these are deeply held mythic structures. They are profoundly conservative beliefs. They may even be hard-wired in the brain, for all I know. I certainly don't want to talk anybody out of them, as I don't want to talk anybody out of a belief that Jesus Christ is the son of God who rose from the dead. But the reason I don't want to talk anybody out of these beliefs is that I know that I can't talk anybody out of them. These are not facts that can be argued. These are issues of faith.

And so it is, sadly, with environmentalism. Increasingly it seems facts aren't necessary, because the tenets of environmentalism are all about belief. It's about whether you are going to be a sinner, or saved. Whether you are going to be one of the people on the side of salvation, or on the side of doom. Whether you are going to be one of us, or one of them.

Posted by: Ace at 10:27 AM | Comments (61)
Post contains 1713 words, total size 11 kb.

1 If I remember correctly all of "those in the know" predicted that the smoke from the burning oilfields during the first Gulf War were supposed to cause global cooling as well. Seems like Sagan was part of that, but I can't remember now if he was even alive then.

Posted by: Freetime at March 30, 2007 10:34 AM (6yp97)

2

Not exactly on topic but related to one of the speeches.


A beaver has just completed its dam, two black bears forage for food,


"black bears forage for food."  That food is also called "The beaver" sitting on his newly refurbished dam.


 


Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 10:35 AM (QTv8u)

3 Sagan's prediction about that is mentioned in the article.  He said there would be a "year without a summer."  Turns out, there was a summer.

Few seem to have called him on what was a pretty good test of his theory, and its falsification.


Posted by: ace at March 30, 2007 10:38 AM (+u1X0)

4

I feel some global warming.


In my pants!


Posted by: Dave in Texas at March 30, 2007 10:39 AM (W5xJB)

5 "self lofting particles" or something like that was the rational, I think, freetime.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 10:40 AM (QTv8u)

6 I think my head just exploded...

Posted by: SOC at March 30, 2007 10:40 AM (1/F/d)

7 I am clearly not one of them. Gotta go get the SUV over to the store to get some pork to grill on a nice smokey fire. They were out of baby polar bear last time i went, asked them to order more.

Posted by: mbruce at March 30, 2007 10:44 AM (LLCm9)

8

Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough.


Excellent.


If anyone knows more than bears about foraging for beaver, it would have to be our own Wickedpinto.


Posted by: skinbad at March 30, 2007 10:45 AM (fm4z+)

9 I reccommend these things to people all the time. A bunch of speeches and a few articles, mostly on global warming but a few others, are available on Chrichton's home page. They're all excellent. The man is brilliant and understands science.

Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 10:45 AM (m6c4H)

10

If I remember correctly all of "those in the know" predicted that the smoke from the burning oilfields during the first Gulf War were supposed to cause global cooling as well. Seems like Sagan was part of that, but I can't remember now if he was even alive then.


Absolutely Sagan was a huge part. He was one of the biggest pushers of early manmade global warming AND global cooling climate models that were mostly rubbish.


Like I said before, Sagan invented Global Warming using weather based computer models. Lorentz invented Chaos Theory trying to explain why his weather based computer models didn't work for shit.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 10:48 AM (m6c4H)

11 Am I the only one who found Carl Sagan to be sort of a jerk?

Posted by: Red at March 30, 2007 10:51 AM (aye0J)

12

Gotta go get the SUV over to the store to get some pork to grill on a nice smokey fire.


 


I find that snail darters and great horned owls make the hottest fires, and imbue polar bear cub meat with the nicest flavor.


Posted by: Rocketeer at March 30, 2007 10:53 AM (GFaLW)

13 The thing about Carl Sagan is, I highly reccommend "A Demon Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Darkness". But he's as fallible and human as anyone else and got his head stuck up in his ass on weather models and anti-human statist 'equalibrium' environmentalism.

Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 11:01 AM (m6c4H)

14

Well Red,


He might have been smug and wrong, but he did do a lot to keep science alive in the American public after the disastrous decision to surrender space flight to the false promise of the space shuttle.  That is enough to make him a very good man.  The idiots are the ones who took his philosophical treatise worded in the language of science as inevitable facts, rather than cautionary (and somewhat ill informed) potential that man mite reap upon itself.


But if there were no sagan, it's hard to say how many space dorks would still be space dorks.


Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 11:01 AM (QTv8u)

15 I think space dorks are space dorks in the hope that on some planet somewhere in the universe, there are females who find nerds totally irrestible.

Posted by: Tushar D at March 30, 2007 11:04 AM (m1bmI)

16

WP is right about Sagan.


Am I the only one for whom watching "Cosmos" was a family event?  It was fascinating for me as a kid, and was the first time I remeber astronomy and science in general filling me with awe.


I have to at least give the guy that.


Posted by: Rocketeer at March 30, 2007 11:06 AM (GFaLW)

17

I think the best of his speeches is probably , not just because of the spiffy powerpoint slides included with the text, but because he discusses the underlying dynamic of how nature is understood as simple vs. complex (dynamic vs. static equillibrium) that I think causes all of this shit frankly. That and hubris.


He also goes into all the other scaremonger crap our society gorges itself on, especially the media. The health crazes, the news telling you eggs will kill your children, Y2K, or whatever. It's mostly all hype.


As Mark Twain said, I've seen a lot of trouble in my days and most of it has never come to pass.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 11:09 AM (m6c4H)

18

Tushar,


Let me put it this way.


No space dorks, there wouldn't even be research into flying cars.


Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 11:12 AM (QTv8u)

19

WTF? Lofl I forgot to give the title of the speech....friggin lag driving me nuts over here.


It's "Fear, Complexity, Environmental Management in the 21st Century"


I tend to think it's due to the fact we're so well off in this country and throughout the "west", we don't have enough real problems to worry about, so we have all this free time to worry about made up shit.


But ...I guess if Mark Twain was observing that way back when, maybe it's just human nature, regaurdless of their condition, to be a bunch of statist hysterical chicken-little ninnies all the time.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 11:14 AM (m6c4H)

20

watching his speech on youtube right now, and I just noticed something that is a pet peeve of mine.


Every young american male who dedicated the years between 20-25 to getting drunk stoned and laid should be able to relate.  When you drink from a bottle, you don't suck on the neck like it's a nipple.  You curl your upper lip downward, creating a one way pressure valve that will vent out the pressures built up by the exchange of the liquid from the bottle asnd the mouth, when swallowing the liquid.


I don't get irritated, but well,yeah irritated, but not by much, when people suck on bottles they are drinking from, only to have a wet smacking sound to be made when the bottle is removed.  Crichton's pretty old now, he should be able to drink from a bottle without sounding like a 3 year old tugging off a sippy cup.


Then again he's old, and that might not be water, but actually his dinner.


Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 11:19 AM (QTv8u)

21

But ...I guess if Mark Twain was observing that way back when, maybe it's just human nature, regaurdless of their condition, to be a bunch of statist hysterical chicken-little ninnies all the time.


Or, as Gilda Radner said 'It's always something!"


Posted by: adolfo_velasquez at March 30, 2007 11:22 AM (dCxhM)

22 So, what? Sagan was an anti-American, litigeous asshole.



Posted by: Red at March 30, 2007 11:25 AM (aye0J)

23

You curl your upper lip downward, creating a one way pressure valve that will vent out the pressures built up by the exchange of the liquid from the bottle asnd the mouth, when swallowing the liquid.


Eh? Does that ......work? Your lip isn't very big...do you take teensy weency tiny sips and nurse a beer for 11 hours?


Mostly I just open my mouth a bit, tilt the bottle, and pour the beer in.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 11:29 AM (m6c4H)

24 Wickedpinto - you should write technical manuals for lushes.

Posted by: Rocketeer at March 30, 2007 11:31 AM (GFaLW)

25 Yes it works entropy.  basicaly you use the "gideon hush" since I don't know what it's actually called, and you sort of "flex" it creating a sort of pin valve.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 11:33 AM (QTv8u)

26 "gabriel hush" DAMN! I meant the gabriel.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 11:35 AM (QTv8u)

27 The britblog Daily Ablution (well, he's an American, living in Britain) recently posted an interesting question-and-answer with Chrichton here.

Oh, shoot. I'm using Opera. New Comment Thingie doesn't work in Opera. It's here: http://dailyablution.blogs.com/the_daily_ablution/2007/03/seven_answers_f.html

Posted by: S. Weasel at March 30, 2007 12:01 PM (MecJo)

28 This would be a GREAT time to toss up a link to the audio of that NPR debate the other day, in which Crighton was one of 3 "skeptic" panelists.

Debate link.


Posted by: DaveS at March 30, 2007 12:03 PM (1R6cr)

29 Yes it works entropy.  basicaly you use the "gideon hush" since I don't
know what it's actually called, and you sort of "flex" it creating a
sort of pin valve.


I just use a funnel.

Posted by: Toby928 at March 30, 2007 12:44 PM (ATbKm)

30

Toby? 


that is the tool of amateurs and braggarts.


Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 12:46 PM (QTv8u)

31 Paul Ehrlich not only championed global cooling but wrote the book " The Population Bomb". We were all supposed to starve to death well before we froze and then boiled. So why exactly is this clown listened to at all?

Posted by: captkidney at March 30, 2007 01:15 PM (uQDzC)

32

From this I conclude fears are a matter of fashion.  Worries are like clothing styles, they come and go, rise and fall, based on what the worry fashion leaders tell the herd of independent minds to fear this year. - Michael Chrichton


I love this guy. If I was a chick I would do him.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 01:29 PM (Uh5fR)

33 If the price is right, I'd do him anyways, but no film, and no kissing.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at March 30, 2007 01:39 PM (QTv8u)

34

Only if he's on the bottom.


And it'd have to be a fair sum of money.


Posted by: Entropy at March 30, 2007 02:05 PM (Uh5fR)

35 Billions and billions of suckers born every minute.

Posted by: Mars at March 30, 2007 03:58 PM (FWrFx)

36 I've been in Denver for the last few days.  When I arrived, it was 65 degrees and beautiful.  When I woke up yesterday morning, it was like a blizzard had hit the town.  Today was again approx. 60 degrees and beautiful, melting all of yesterday's snow away. 

In the local paper, they had a story about how the storm hit about 8 hours earlier than the "experts" expected and stayed longer than they thought it would.  A couple of quotes that amazed me:

"The reason for the almost eight-hour miss was the problem of forecasters choosing among differing computer models."

"Two nights ago, it was giving us quite a bit of rain, and that didn't happen."

"With inconsistent reports from various models, meteorologists based their final forecasts on experience."

If they can't predict a snowstorm accurately within one or two days, how the fuck can we trust their predictions for the next 50 or 100 years?

Posted by: wiserbud at March 30, 2007 06:11 PM (WOPFA)

37 The true reason for the Global Warming thing is the excess heat in hell from the stream of Dems and RINOs who have sold out the USA and the brave troops, Remember the Devil will allways get his due, and he has a special home for the tiny peckered Al Gore. PLEASE NOTE the heat here will melt a Oscar, Arrfat lost his ,and Carter better leave his back at the peanut farm , Bill Clinton can bring his, he is a old friend of the boss, and the boss has made special arrangements for A/C for Bill and Hillary.

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