October 31, 2012

Irreconcilable Differences: Either The State Polls Are Divorced From Reality, Or the National Polls Are
— Ace

Posted at Hot Air, Sean Trende crunches some numbers in an attempt to determine if the state polls and the national polls could both be right.

His conclusion: They can't both be right. One series of data must be wrong. (Or, actually: At least one series of data must be wrong. They could both be wrong.)

He attempts to discover if it's possible -- as some liberals analysts suggest -- that Romney might actually be ahead in national polls owing to overperformance in non-swing-states, lightly polled states, both Blue and Red. This theory postulates that Romney could be closing the gap in Blue states where he'll lose anyway, and running up the score in Red states where he'll win away, but is still stubbornly behind in swing states. Thus, his national poll lead, while nice, is owed to good performance in states where it really doesn't matter. Where it does matter -- the highly polled swing states -- he's behind.

But he crunches numbers to see if that sort of scenario is likely. His finding is that it just isn't likely that Romney could plausibly have high enough margins in noncompetitive states to give him the national vote lead while simultaneously losing the competitive ones.

Trouble is, he's not able to say which data set is more reliable. Though he does knock Nate Silver (not by name, but it's implicit) for the unwarranted assumption that of course the state polls, mostly conducted by firms that haven't been around all that long so we have little idea of their accuracy, must be right.

So this is what it is, ultimately: Both sides have reason to think they're ahead. Both sides, it seems, really do think they're ahead. Neither side is actually blowing smoke (as a losing campaign like McCain's did in 200 .

One side is going to be crushingly disappointed on Election Night.

Something just terrible is about to happen to somebody. I sure hope it's not us.

Now, I would take solace for my preferred take on things from the fact that everyone is now going to Wisconsin.

And when I say "everyone," you know who I mean?

I mean EV-ER-Y-ONE.

Ryan Stumps in Wisconsin; Clinton, Biden, Romney and Obama Follow Suit

That's kind of a good sign, but then, if Obama thought he was ahead in Ohio, and Wisconsin became Romney's only possible hope, it would make perfect sense for him to go up there to make sure Romney didn't create a new avenue of victory.

So that doesn't really clarify things.

From the beginning of this campaign, I've been thinking it comes down to one thing: 5% of the voters defecting from Obama, to either flip to Romney or, at least, simply not vote (or vote for a third party candidate).

Obama got 53% of the vote. If 5% of the voters -- about 10% of his total voter pile -- flip to the challenger or stay home, Romney should win.

Since the polls are conflicting on this point, let's look at newspaper endorsements.

Today came another flip: The Nashua (NH) Telegraph flipped from its 2008 endorsement of Obama to endorsing his challenger Romney in 2012. From that endorsement:

Four years ago, with little hesitation, we endorsed then-Sen. Barack Obama to become the 44th president of the United States, saying it was a time for “new leadership, a new approach to governing, a new way of conducting the people’s business.”

So the basic question facing The Telegraph editorial board when it met last week came down to this: Did the former Illinois senator do enough to live up to those admittedly high expectations to warrant a second term?

After several hours of spirited debate, not unlike conversations taking place in kitchens and living rooms across America, we reached a consensus that he had not. Perhaps more importantly, when we identified the key challenges facing the nation – jobs, the economy and the national debt – we concluded he was not the best candidate to meet them.

That person is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and we hereby endorse him to become the 45th president of the United States.

I've written earlier that these flips in newspaper endorsements are somewhat helpful for Romney, as a direct matter, as they will tend to sway some undecided voters.

But they're also important indirectly as proxies for, as the Telegraph says, the "conversations taking place in kitchens and living rooms across America." Editorial staffs aren't kitchens and living rooms, of course-- but they're actually more liberal, and more likely to buy into Obama's brand of progressivism than most families talking about the question.

Now, looking at newspaper endorsements, has Obama lost that game-changing 10% of his 2008 support?

Actually, looking just at newspaper endorsements, it's closer to twenty percent. Almost one in five of the major metro dailies which endorsed Obama -- most with a long, long history of endorsing Democrats for President -- have now flipped to support Mitt Romney.

I don't know what that says, exactly. Obviously I'm casting about for confirmatory data.

Still. If you've lost 20% of the liberal-leaning newspapers which enthusiastically supported you in 2008, and which endorse Democrats almost as a reflex, then you just can't be doing all that well with the voters.

Posted by: Ace at 11:59 AM | Comments (257)
Post contains 908 words, total size 6 kb.

1 There are few things in life that Gary Oldman cannot improve. Though fuck you Gary Oldman. Commissioner Gordon is not supposed to be hotass. How the holy hell do you make the mustache sexy? How?

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:01 PM (VtjlW)

2 One side is going to be crushingly disappointed on Election Night.

I'm gonna need more tequila.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 31, 2012 12:01 PM (ZKzrr)

3 I sure hope it's not me that  will be smoking  the car  tail pipe next week

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:02 PM (hX8cq)

4 Heather share!

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:02 PM (hX8cq)

5 Fifth?

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at October 31, 2012 12:02 PM (GrtrJ)

6 i swear, no-one gets pancakes until i'm happy.

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:03 PM (hX8cq)

7 O just made some big admission in Colo....flaming skull time!

Posted by: jeanne, the obscure at October 31, 2012 12:03 PM (GdalM)

8 Romney's coming to Wisconsin too.  Friday morning 9:30 AM - State Fairgrounds in suburban Milwaukee.  They rescheduled the event that got canceled because of Chris Christie.  I mean Sandy.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:03 PM (P6QsQ)

9 alex,  help me tackle Heather, she is not sharing.

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (hX8cq)

10 You need to accept the obvious fact that some of the polls are deliberate lies with a specific intent


They acquired the raw data, then 'massaged' it to create the outcome. 


If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (Dll6b)

11 Ohhh Obama looks so...presidential.   Piece of shit.   I hope Christie eats him.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (9ghZ6)

12 I bet I know someone who can explain the differences in the polls. 

Posted by: Adam at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (/YJYi)

13 We cannot have an unhappy willow. Here. Have this tequila.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (VtjlW)

14 jeane wha, what?

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (hX8cq)

15 >>>O just made some big admission in Colo....flaming skull time! what? I haven't heard.

Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (LCRYB)

16 Damn it Ace! Do not tell me this whole thing comes down to Wisconsin. They voted for- D-U-K-A-K-I-S!

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (r2PLg)

17 OH FUCK!

ITS GOING TO BE A TSUNAMI!


Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (ovpNn)

18 Up down,up,down,up,down... Not sure I can take much more of this...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (9+ccr)

19 Think...Walker Recall margins

Posted by: Dept. Of Accuracy Dept. at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (+I8Mq)

20 Romney in Wisconsin and  now ad buys in the Twin City metro, is a you betcha moment.

Posted by: Journolist at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (LyIKl)

21 RCP average has fallen to +.2 for Romney. My theory is that it is the loss of Gallup for three days that had Romney at +5.

Posted by: Nate at October 31, 2012 12:05 PM (gsy5B)

22 Romney is in Jacksonville----  TONIGHT .  


activate and reinforce; activate and reinforce...

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 12:05 PM (Dll6b)

23 Ohhh Obama looks so...presidential. Piece of shit. I hope Christie eats him.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 31, 2012 05:04 PM (9ghZ6)


-----------


  They just got engaged.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:05 PM (P6QsQ)

24 New Pew poll supports Gallup.  19% have already voted and Romney is ahead among those early voters by 50-43.

Got this from @ByronYork on Twitter

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 12:05 PM (DQMcq)

25  We cannot have an unhappy willow. Here. Have this tequila.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 05:04 PM (VtjlW)


Thank you alex, it's been a harsh day, and ace isn't helping...


he's next!

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (hX8cq)

26 Wait...someone tell me I am wrong about that flipping Dukakis vote... that can't be right.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (r2PLg)

27 I am so glad I took the three days after the election off.  I'm going to need that long to recover.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (GrtrJ)

28

Can I get a summary, here?

Did Ace like the movie or not?

Posted by: garrett at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (gwBxH)

29 Be prepared: Obama night pull slightly ahead in the RCP national average soon, since Gallup isn't going to have another poll out until next Monday, and there is an O+5 NJ poll stinking up the average now.

Posted by: Jon (not the troll) at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (q7PAR)

30 Commissioner Gordon is not supposed to be hotass.

Did you not read Batman: Year One? (The Miller/Mazuchelli one.)

Gordon got a divorce because he was shtupping his hot (chick) partner, which is why you never see Batgirl's mom.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (4+LTj)

31 So no blog post about the new MU poll? The one CAC was waiting for? Cowards. And you are misleading your readers about Romney's chances just like you did in 08. BTW, in the MU recall polls, they also showed Obama up 6 pts while Walker would be leading by the same margin. And the partisan spread is the same it was for their final recall poll.

Posted by: RomneylosesOhio at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (HgJZ+)

32

So what you're saying is, all the polls are utterly unreliable at this time?

 

Gosh, I had no idea. 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (TOk1P)

33 But Obama has been so Presidential lately and Presidentin' is hard

Posted by: Dept. Of Accuracy Dept. at October 31, 2012 12:06 PM (+I8Mq)

34 @ 23 : mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot

Christie performed fellatio on Obama like Larry Sinclair did.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (CX71c)

35 Did Ace like the movie or not? Needed more pancakes.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (VtjlW)

36 54-45 300+ECV Mitt will save the children, but not the liberal children He's coming, he's coming, he's coming ...

Posted by: toby928 for TB at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (QupBk)

37 9% Response rate.

And response rate from one of the Oiho polls was -3%-.

This (combined with D+eleventy-like-200 has been the entire story on the polls.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (MzQOZ)

38 Paul Ryan should just be finishing up his rally in Racine about now.  Watch Racine Co on election night.  That's where the fraud is going to be.  They did a practice run the night of the recall, and the Obama campaign is bussing people up there this weekend.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (P6QsQ)

39 Gary Oldman being a conservative somehow just makes life better. I remember an old clip of Dennis Miller Live on HBO and Dennis was talking to him and he said, "Well in America you have one party that lies to you and thats the Democrat party isn't it?"

Posted by: Drew in MO at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (T57vh)

40 o g-d just a few more days, a few more days, we can do it.

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (hX8cq)

41 you would think that being maxed out in your safe, home states would be prebaked into the pie. So, this makes no sense. Sure, Romney's winning red states about as big as you win red states but even texas and utah have large blue populations. The only location with overwhelmingly 90-10 vote demographic is DC. The thing is, and I think Rove touched on it or at least it's in hotair, is that you can't skew national polls without it being reflected at state levels, like Ohio has always been bellweather for national polls but plus gop by .02. And if the homestate inflation thing was real, then it would've been real real in 2004. But W won. The only truth to that is blue state inner city voter fraud, vote manufacturing centers are able to give states (with their near 100% voter turnout, uh huh) very nice margins to DNC. But once you have voter fraud measures in place, depressed blue vote model, and a departure of a milion illegals, that changes.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (QxSug)

42 ...gay sharks. oh, what's this? a nood thread?

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (jUytm)

43 Romney is ahead among absentee votes;  Romney is ahead among early voters;  Romney is way ahead among 'undecided / independent' voters; Romney / Republicans are +1 in voter registration nationwide


But somehow Romney is losing?   I smell cat pee...

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (Dll6b)

44 and it's obvious that the state polls are still being manipulated to depress GOP turnout and to create a meme of there being a tight race.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (QxSug)

45 Forget the minutia of detail and just ask yourself how the average, paste eating American is likely to vote. Do you really think they'll vote Obama when they have no real attachment to him? Do you think they'll vote Romney because of the economy? Or will they stay home because they don't really care either way this time? If you answered yes to the last two, then we win. If you answered yes to the first question, then Obama will win.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (TR60b)

46 RCP average has fallen to +.2 for Romney. My theory is that it is the loss of Gallup for three days that had Romney at +5.

Posted by: Nate at October 31, 2012 05:05 PM (gsy5B)

It's the bullshit NJ poll that has O+5 with a D+8 sample. .

Posted by: Jon (not the troll) at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (q7PAR)

47 of course, in 2008, we played this wishcasting, the polls are screwed game and lost, but we're a lot closer than we were in 2008.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (QxSug)

48 You're all nuts!  I'm a polester, don't listen to Ace's lies. 

Posted by: RomneylosesSanFran at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (/YJYi)

49 Gregoriah i think people heard you the first 3125525 times

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (60GaT)

50 I don't know about you but I find it disconcerting to be simultaneously planning a victory party and a suicide.

Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (qwK3S)

51 I don't think Sandy has helped. News cycles that could have gone to Benghazi have gone to Obama *acting* presidential. And a disaster is the kind of thing you mostly throw money at and worry about the consequences later. Have I described Obama's wheelhouse? I think I have.

Moreover, Mitt had the mo, and when you have the mo, you don't want anyone saying let's get a new deck or swap the dice. You want to keep dealing and rolling. Sandy shook the race up.

Maybe it's not having the constant reassurance of Gallup, but I'm a lot edgier the last couple of days than I have been.

The data--aside from state polls--looks good. I'm talking about national polls, fund-raising, early voting, and the intangibles (media + liberal behavior versus Romney and his campaign).

Just kind of tired of being on edge.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (DnLl2)

52 Where's Jeff B.?

He usually has the inside scope on these things.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (UypUQ)

53 Anecdotal, but I talk to people about our church food pantry/clothing closet (which has added 25% new clients since last with new folks every week) rather often and, I always say "The Government might say that the economy is improving. You wouldn't know it by what's happening at the food pantry." With the exception of a guy with a big Obama button on and two people I knew were Obama voters everyone agreed that the economy stinks. All the "There's a silver lining" and "Obama is a take charge kind of guy" talk is not fooling anybody but his acoltyes perhaps. He still might win through fraud but even in blue NJ which will go to Obama nobody thinks things are great. Nor do i believe Obama voters think this is in the bag.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (XSFXq)

54 What the hell did Romney do to piss of Christie.

Posted by: Chris Christie at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (49lPc)

55 They just got engaged.

They can't get married in NJ.   Christie vetoed it.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (ZKzrr)

56 Mr. Barky, perhaps drowning in pudding might not be such a bad wayto go.

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (hX8cq)

57 Can we delay the election a week? The beginnings of a preference cascade are nice, but I prefer a preference tsunami.

Posted by: t-bird at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (FcR7P)

58 ummm, the MFM is not evaluated in any substantive way other than how many people watch their sh*t programs--including 'news'


a "tight race" meme helps increase revenue as well as helps their gay Muslim boyfriend

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (Dll6b)

59 Did you not read Batman: Year One? (The Miller/Mazuchelli one.) Of course I read Year One. I still maintain that the Commish isn't supposed to be hotass. Stupid Gary Oldman in that stupid tactical gear.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (VtjlW)

60 So, we have plenty of examples of Obama losing the editorial pages of major papers. Are there any papers that endorsed McCain in 2008 and have flipped to Obama this time? If not, I don't think you're cherry-picking. I voted for McCain in 2008 but felt that he really didn't have a chance. This time, I feel the momentum. I don't see anywhere the hope and optimism from the Democrats that was omnipresent back then, and I live in Northern Virginia. I don't think it will be close. I think Ohio will be clear by 2-4 points, and I think we will pick up at least one surprise state (PA, MI, WI, IA, NH) that will pad the margin. I don't think it will be a whitewash (though I wish it were) because the fake polls do in fact keep hope up for the Dems. But any Valurite that is consumed on November 6th will be for celebration, not mourning.

Posted by: Virginia SoCon at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (+/C3g)

61 I'm going with Dave in Fla on this. He shows math. Speculation is just that. The flipping of liberal newspaper endorsement to Romney is part of the tidal wave, I suspect. But, we will know on Tuesday. *gulp

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (LpQbZ)

62

Thank you alex, it's been a harsh day, and ace isn't helping...
he's next!

Good!

OK AtC, you start massaging her neck...

Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (3SvjA)

63 *scoop, not scope*

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (UypUQ)

64 I like the police car screeching to a stop at the end of that clip. Makes "everyone" more intense.

Posted by: mare at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (A98Xu)

65

Ace,

Consider the following, in either case of victory or defeat, we get to drink.  The intent is just different.  But either way, sweet sweet alcohol.

Posted by: tsrblke at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (GaqMa)

66 I don't know about you but I find it disconcerting to be simultaneously planning a victory party and a suicide.

Tequila's appropriate at both.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (ZKzrr)

67 did i miss it...what is the flaming skull-Colorado thing?

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (JWLqy)

68 Obama cancelled a rally-- Colorado Springs. Denver Post. that is a Republican /military town anyways. Ft. Carson Pete Field Air Force Academy Space Command--or whatever the title of that is these days. Excuse is the hurricane.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (r2PLg)

69

Did you wingnuts see the Utahs-r-us polls? 

 

Romney is only leading by about 30 points there, which means he has no shot at Ohio!

 

Science!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: RomneyLosesHisreligion at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (TOk1P)

70 "As they say in my business, I'm going to give you the whole load today," said Biden, and way off topic, here goes:

[Southern Baptist] Church [black] pastor beaten to death with electric guitar by unaffiliated [black] man who rammed car into church
-- By Peter Rugg, UK Mail Online, 29 Oct 12

(Tarrant County, Ft. Worth North Texas) Forest Hill Police told reporters they didn't know why the unidentified suspect attacked Rev. Danny Kirk Sr., founding pastor of the Greater Sweethome Missionary Baptist Church. Hundreds mourned Kirk as a dedicated minister with a cheerful personality who knew the names of each of his hundreds of church members. He was also an unofficial volunteer chaplain who occasionally counseled members of the local high school football team. When police arrived they found the suspect striking Kirk with an electric guitar they believe was already in the church. Police used a Taser to subdue the man, handcuffed him, and locked him in their patrol car. Shortly after being taken into custody, the unidentified assailant was found unresponsive and was pronounced dead at a local hospital.
---
FOREST HILL — WFAA Ft.Worth

John Whitaker was cleaning inside Greater Sweethome Missionary Baptist Church in Forest Hill Monday morning. He remembers hearing a crash, seeing a fight, and trying to save his beloved pastor's life.

"I heard a big bang, and I didn't know what it was," Whitaker said. "The motor revved up, and when the dust cleared, I saw Pastor [Danny] Kirk on the hood of the car." Whitaker ran outside and saw the suspect — whom family members identified as 33-year-old Derrick Birdow — beating his pastor. "I hit the man upside the head and it didn't faze him," he said. "I went and got a 2-by-2 [piece of lumber] and hit him again, more than once, and that didn't faze that man. He was crazy. He was super strong," Whitaker added said. "Something was wrong with that man."

Birdow broke away from Rev. Danny Kirk and ran inside, with Whitaker and Kirk following. The attack continued near the music room, Whitaker said. "I got blindsided," he said. "When I rounded the corner, he hit me upside the head with a guitar... twice. I was dazed, but I hit him again when I saw he was hitting pastor."
---
[Unwilling to admit her husband's drug abuse] The wife/widow of the suspect Shanellia Birdow says she does not know why Derrick Birdow attacked the minister Monday. Speaking at a prayer vigil for the Rev. Danny Kirk Sr. Tuesday night, she described her spouse as "really sick" and "mentally ill." (USA Today, Oct. 31)

Posted by: "Because I Could" at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (BAnPT)

71 Though fuck you Gary Oldman. Commissioner Gordon is not supposed to be hotass. How the holy hell do you make the mustache sexy? How? How YOU doin'?

Posted by: David Axelrod at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (T0NGe)

72 What does it mean when everyone goes to Wisconsin? 

I think it probably mean that both camps think it's possible O could win Ohio, which would make Wisc very important to the Romney camp.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (DQMcq)

73 I don't know about you but I find it disconcerting to be simultaneously planning a victory party and a suicide. See, this is where being a Cubs fan has some real world applications. OK AtC, you start massaging her neck... Your nobility. I sees it.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:13 PM (VtjlW)

74 kawfy, i haven't see jeanes response either.

Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 12:13 PM (hX8cq)

75

Polls are an equal mix scientific and art. 

The macro picture must be looked at with considerations of ground game, enthusiam and the triangulation of campaign focus.

The enthusiams factor is simply enormous for R and will carry in the swings.

Look at Minnesota, R is down by 3 in a recent Minneapolis Star Tribune poll.  This state didn't even go for Reagan and now Clinton had to go there to defend and Wisconsin is in a tie with momentum running toward Romney with an exceptional ground game due to the work of Reince Preibus and the GOP fending off the recall. 

Keep on our game and keep moving the ball by way of volunteering.  Because your enthusiam as a volunteer is part of the energy.

And above all, keep praying for our country and cover Romney in prayer my friends.

Posted by: Journolist at October 31, 2012 12:13 PM (LyIKl)

76 By the way...

do we need a conservative alternative to RCP?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:13 PM (UypUQ)

77

I don't understand all the hadwringing regarding the polls from so called experts.

 

 

All the polls are the same. If Obama  outperforms what he did in 2008 and Romney underperforms what McCain did in 2008 Obama wins. That's what all the polls say, all of them, state or national.

 

 

The National Journal just came out with a new poll that they admit has +8 dems, in that poll Obama wins by 5 , 2 less than 2008 and +1 dems in the poll that happened in 2008.

 

 

So if you beleive that Obama is so popular among dems and Romney is so unpoplur among repubs that Obama will do better than is 2008 among dems and Romney will do worse than McCain did in 2008 among repubs we've lost.

 

 

 

I don't happen to beleive that.

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2012 12:13 PM (rTgOf)

78 The MU poll results page was down most of the day so I'll look forward to his analysis on it...as I said in another post even the pollster for MU is hedging on his results.

The poll is bullshit.




Posted by: H Badger at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (n/0Nw)

79 80% believe Obama knows how to properly clean his backside after pooping, which means Romney loses Ohio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: RomneyLosesHisreligion at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (TOk1P)

80

What does it mean when everyone goes to Wisconsin?

I think it probably mean that both camps think it's possible O could win Ohio, which would make Wisc very important to the Romney camp.

--------

 

Yea that's it. Not that they both think Romney can win Wisconsin. That can't be it. Has to be what you said. Has to.

Posted by: Rich at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (arczc)

81

That was always part of the loss in '08 that gets lost in the fog. McCain didn't hold the line and republican turnout was artificially low. Even assuming all of Obama's voters got out and voted for him again, Republicans would win a few of the close states based off them turning up this time.

Four things I know, fuck the polls:

1. Republicans want to show up this time and will outperform 08

2. Obama will underperform 08

3. Independents perfer Romney anywhere from 7-12 percent

4. Obama is not acting like he's ahead.

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (t06LC)

82 Romney has taken Ohio.  The reason everyone is going to Wisconsin is that Romney needs one more state, and the dems don't want to lose another senator.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (F0K0r)

83 c'mon Jeane...Enquiring minds and all that *tapping fingers*

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 12:14 PM (JWLqy)

84 Excuse is the hurricane. If there's a hurricane in Colorado, I'm guessing the election is the least of our concerns.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 12:15 PM (VtjlW)

85 New Pew poll supports Gallup. 19% have already voted and Romney is ahead among those early voters by 50-43. I hope that's true. There's no easier way to get Dems to oppose something if they think it gets them less votes. Early voting might get as much bad press as voter ID.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 12:15 PM (T0NGe)

86 Evacuate?! In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.

Posted by: Grand Moff Obama at October 31, 2012 12:15 PM (QupBk)

87 The idea that defending Wisconsin is somehow a sign of the massive strength of Obama's campaign is fucking re-dick-u-lus. Man up, you pussies.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 12:16 PM (TR60b)

88 and remember, Rush L. was, about 2 months ago, talking about how critical North Carolina was going to be, how that's the state to shift for the win. Now? blue states. This is good. I hope Romney drops a ten million in ads in each of NV, OR, WA, WI, MN, MI to really get the sweep going

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:16 PM (QxSug)

89 Yeah, obama cancelled a trip to Co. because of the hurricane... riiiiight... Chalk up another State for R/R

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 12:16 PM (9+ccr)

90 >>>9 alex, help me tackle Heather, she is not sharing. Posted by: willow at October 31, 2012 05:04 PM (hX8cq) Pics, whether it happened or not

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 12:17 PM (qPJ3b)

91 Nil Butron is a pud.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at October 31, 2012 12:17 PM (uW4J6)

92

>>> @ABC/WashPost tracking; 78 percent rate Obama’s response to #Sandy positively

 

President 'Leads From Behind', leads from behind.  Film at 11.

 

Posted by: garrett at October 31, 2012 12:17 PM (m18GQ)

93 81
What does it mean when everyone goes to Wisconsin?

I think it probably mean that both camps think it's possible O could win Ohio, which would make Wisc very important to the Romney camp.

--------

Yea that's it. Not that they both think Romney can win Wisconsin. That can't be it. Has to be what you said. Has to.

Posted by: Rich at October 31, 2012 05:14 PM (arczc)

Well, my reasoning was that if Obama has lost Ohio, he's lost the election, even if he wins Wisconsin.  On the other hand, if Romney wins Ohio he doesn't need Wisconsin, assuming he takes FL, NC, VA, and CO

Never mind.  My head is spinning.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 12:17 PM (DQMcq)

94

So somebody's lying? 

 

Which side do you think that would favor?

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:18 PM (fsLdt)

95 So, it's after 5 any word from Trump?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (9+ccr)

96 Look the new ABC/WaPo poll shows it all tied up!  Romney loses huge!

Posted by: RomneylosesSanFran at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (/YJYi)

97 More polls.  I need more polls!

Posted by: Vlad Tepes at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (QKKT0)

98

 

New pole!  Obama approval rating among parasites - 100%!!!1!111!!!!1!

Posted by: Romneylosesretardedbasementdwellers at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (ggRof)

99 If TFG wins I'm switching to Yellowstone Caldera 2013.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (fsLdt)

100 Not this shit again.  How many '08 JEF voters won't vote or switch to Romney?  Now, the reverse, i.e., '08 McVain votes to the JEF this year?  In what demographic has the JEF increased his margin?  Now, the reverse.  Where lies the enthusiasm?  Who has the better ground game and microtargeting?  

Color me a dreamer but the answers to the foregoing bode well for Mitt.  I'm not going to drink myself silly over this analysis.

Posted by: eureka! at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (cTjRR)

101 I REFUSE to believe the momentum has shifted...NO Fucking way

Posted by: rukiddingme? at October 31, 2012 12:19 PM (MbeEN)

102 And it wasn't legitimate.

Posted by: Romneyrapedmymom at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (60GaT)

103 WI, CO, IA is Romney's back up plan.  However, based on early voting trends, the dems have lost    too many early votes in Ohio to win.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (F0K0r)

104 85 Excuse is the hurricane. If there's a hurricane in Colorado, I'm guessing the election is the least of our concerns. Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 05:15 PM (VtjlW) ___________ You know what I mean... Poor idea to send him to C Springs in the first place. After--Benghazi--with C Springs huge AF presence and Special Ops at Fort Carson--it becomes a really bad idea.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (r2PLg)

105 The differences will be reconciled soon enough, viceroy.

Posted by: Count Dooku at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (uW4J6)

106 I swear they play the one and only 'Ryan for Congress' ad at least 17 times an hour on the radio here.  And it's not even a good one. Gah.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (P6QsQ)

107 It's how Dems do science. They have their conclusion - Obama wins. Then they work backwards and torture the data to make it fit.

Posted by: real joe at October 31, 2012 12:20 PM (PD2ad)

108

Where lies the enthusiasm?

 

Exactly.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (fsLdt)

109 Did Obama and Christie share a "tar ball" moment at the beach?

Posted by: Fritz at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (vm7ot)

110 The hurricane can carry obama only so far. While the devastation is bad, it didn't affect the majority of the Country...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (9+ccr)

111 It's just a matter of who you trust. If Pew and Gallup are right, and early voting is even, we've won. If CBS is right, and the Dems get a +8 advantage in turnout, we've lost. I find the former more believable than the latter.

Posted by: Rich at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (arczc)

112

Divorced from reality is Vice President Choo Choo Charlie.

"Transgender is THE civil rights issue of our time. That, or midaclorians; I forget. You sure have beautiful eyes though. We must take the train into the village and buy you a dress, that I might paint you. WOO-WOO! ding-ding-ding-ding. Balls the size of cue balls! On a transgendered lady-man. All a-board! Set that biker gal down in my lap. chug-a-chug-a-chug-a WHOO-WHOO!"

Posted by: -Shawn- at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (5I71H)

113

74 -

 

I don't believe for a second that Cubs fans really plan victory parties.

 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 12:21 PM (TOk1P)

114 Apropos of nothing, the Helen Thomas picture in the sidebar is gonna give me nightmares.

Posted by: toby928 for TB at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (QupBk)

115 Early voting has Romney up 53% to 47% (did I get that right? from Gallup on The Five.) Ace, stop fretting. Please.

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (gjIQF)

116

Then they work backwards and torture the data to make it fit.

 

Wait....where have I heard that before?

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (fsLdt)

117 Actually shit--Special Ops use to be at Fort Carson--I don't know that to be a fact anymore.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (r2PLg)

118

The campaigns have internals that they don't release and each side knows what the situation is.  That is why the Romney campaign is acting like it thinks its winning and Obama's campaign is acting like a bunch of losers. 

 

The campaigns know and no one in upper levels of the the campaigns should be surprised.   You can tell from the debates that Obama knows.

 

 

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (Rrc6j)

119 Look, I need them to lose.

I cannot afford more of this. The individual mandate is going to destroy me, and the death panels are going to kill my father, who's going to otherwise be needing a new pacemaker in the next few years.

So they have to lose.

Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 12:22 PM (znT2j)

120

I'm sure this  breakdown of the  CBS/NYT/Q poll was already posted here today (it was featured at RCP), but it bears linking again and again and again:

 

 

"CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Survey Narnia, Find Obama Leading"

 

 

http://tinyurl.com/ajqmrt8


 

Since my name is Aslan's Girl, you know I loved the Narnia mention, lol!

 

He breaks down all the party splits. He finds  that for FL the poll is D+7 whereas in '08 it was only D+3; for OH it's D+8, which is at least the same as '08 (tho we know it was unprecedented and will never happen again);  and in VA, it's D+8 "comparable" to '08 which was D+6.

 

Anyway, this is why the poll magically finds O in the lead. Bunk.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 12:23 PM (KL49F)

121

Racine - Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan ended a whirlwind campaign day through Wisconsin, Wednesday, telling a crowd of around 1,000 supporters that the country can do better and "doesn't have to settle for the status quo."

Appearing with his wife, Janna, Ryan mixed local memories with national policy on his third stop after earlier rallies in Eau Claire and Ashwaubenon.

"You know, you get a little choked up coming home," said Ryan, the congressman from Janesville.

"You know what they always say, as Racine County goes so goes Wisconsin, as Wisconsin goes, so goes America," Ryan said.

"From here, we go home to Janesville to go trick-or-treating with our kids," Ryan said, adding he will take his children on the same trick-or-treating route that he went on as a child.


http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/176644331.html

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (P6QsQ)

122

@Reince RNC just bought another 1 mil in TV ads in Wisconsin.  Another 4 mil will go to battleground states.

 

Don't forget, this is PERSONAL to Reince Priebus. And he knows a hell of a lot more about the state than David Axelrod or Jim Messina, and he said this morning that if the election were held today Romney would win. 

Posted by: rockmom at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (qE3AR)

123 I don't get the 6% of early voters in the Pew poll that say "Don't know".  ???!!

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (UypUQ)

124

So they have to lose.

 

Ditto bro.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (fsLdt)

125 We are going to win. I've never volunteered in my life, and I'm going to, just to beat TFG.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (TR60b)

126 "Every guy just looks in his own pocket and then votes. And the funny part of it is that it's the last year of an administration that counts. [A president] can have three bad ones and then wind up with everybody having money in the fourth, and the incumbent will win so far he needn't even stay up to hear the returns. Conditions win elections, not speeches." - Stuff Will Rogers Said, Vol. I

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (89rP2)

127 @JayCostTWS So let's wrap our mind around this one, gang. Princeton Survey Research Associates did the Pew poll from 10/24 to 10/28. Found a tie.

Princeton Survey Research Associates did the National Journal poll from 10/25 to 10/28, found Obama up 5.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 31, 2012 12:24 PM (YjDyJ)

128 ... i mean, did they forget who they voted for?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (UypUQ)

129 >>>77 By the way... do we need a conservative alternative to RCP? Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 05:13 PM (UypUQ) Good question. But the whole concept of RCP is flawed. Averaging out a bunch of polls taken at different times and with different amounts of liberal-only bias doesn't help you know any more.

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (qPJ3b)

130 You do have a point, Ace. 

I'm smelling something here.  The "ground reports" I've been reading across the country tell me of MULTITUDES of Romney signs and support, and then just a tiny, teensy, little bit of ad for The One.  Even here in Harris County (TX, home of Houston), the first day of Early Voting in the state, records were broken. 

Something's afoot, and the pollsters are not catching it...

I spoke to my neighbor this morning.  She and her husband put a Romney sign in front of their house not long ago.  She explained to me that her husband had to lay off a lot of people because orders stopped coming, "And those were GOOD PEOPLE."  She and her husband are very frustrated that their fortunes have not improved a bleep in the last four years.  "Something has to be done."  I totally agreed with her.  Careers and jobs around here in the Houston area have been stagnated - just dead in the water.  Even my husband's.  I even got a response from an architect here in Houston in which he said all the work has dried up - and that's in the Energy Capital of the World, for cryin' out loud!  Inflation has taken a real tool around here, too.  Gas prices are way up here, not as in CA, but they're up.

All of this is happening in Houston, the Energy Capital of the World.  Think about it for a minute.

Also, didn't Zombie calculate not long ago that about 9 percent of those who are contacted by pollsters actually answer all of the pollsters's questions?  I think people don't want to answer questions because they don't want to be compromised by the pollsters themselves.  Fear ob being called a "racist"? Perhaps.  Fear of what else?  I don't know. 

The point is, this Nation needs to get back in track - and lots of people perceive it.  The One we have now as President is NOT WORKING.  It's time for a change. 

The question is, "Are the People ready to make the change?"

Posted by: theduchessofkitty at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (NtsQB)

131 Ok just donated one last time for Romney. I'm exhausted.

Posted by: Spypeach at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (49lPc)

132 I cannot afford more of this. The individual mandate is going to destroy me, and the death panels are going to kill my father, who's going to otherwise be needing a new pacemaker in the next few years.

Could we interest Dad in some free condoms instead?

Posted by: Kathleen Sebelius at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (QKKT0)

133 Don't forget, this is PERSONAL to Reince Priebus. ___________ That could also be a problem.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (r2PLg)

134 Undertow election.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (TR60b)

135 Look on the bright side, I'll be here for you at least through 2019!

Posted by: George Lucas's Star Wars 7-9 Treatments at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (znT2j)

136 I don't believe for a second that Cubs fans really plan victory parties.

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 05:21 PM (TOk1P)


-----------------




I've had one planned since 1958.  The pretzels are getting a bit stale.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:26 PM (P6QsQ)

137 We may see a one or two day lift in O #s due to the storm, only to see it settle back into a 47-50 Romney advantage... just like the final debate.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:26 PM (UypUQ)

138 spend that money, mitt! You gave away a fortune before, surely you won't hold on to your campaign funds.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:26 PM (QxSug)

139

As usual, a coterie of Moronettes to the rescue. By my measure and in true humility and given I am a fat head, I will definately need more pudding to drown than to dip. It will take a lot of tequila to get enough of a pudding mix to get the desired effect, especially given my current stock of pudding. 

 

BTW - what flavor goes with tequila? Vanilla? Squeeze of lime or sprinkles? Extra BTW - if I were a Cubs fan, I would already be dead.

Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at October 31, 2012 12:26 PM (qwK3S)

140 BTW, Team Romney should be touting that drop in ADP job numbers... use anything and everything to get folks' minds on the economy.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:27 PM (UypUQ)

141 Go, MJ, GO!

Posted by: Jay in Ames at October 31, 2012 12:27 PM (i2Lsf)

142 Hillbuzz already did a post debunking those who think the hurricane will help O; one good photo-op does not  erase  the past four wasted years.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 12:27 PM (KL49F)

143 Can't we all finally admit that the main reason so many normally conservative or Republican states and newspapers went for Obama in '08 wasn't because of anything he had to say?

Oh, yeah it was good and maybe even necessary for him to have the rhetoric down pat and of course the press didn't investigate a lot of leads and stories that would've revealed him to be the puppet and/or fake that most of us thought he was but we all know the real reason why otherwise conservative leaning and America loving small dailies and States that usually voted/endorsed Republicans to suddenly vote/endorse for this fraud in record numbers?

Don't we?

Really?

Do I have to say it?

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 12:27 PM (hqI/K)

144 Exit question: what percent of polls in the walker recall election in Wisconsin were within the MoE. That should tell you enough about the validity of state polls.

Posted by: taylork at October 31, 2012 12:28 PM (ppNDn)

145 Anxiously awaiting the early bird/toddler wave of Trick-or-Treaters. I'm on my own this year, nobody else home to hand out candy. I have beer, etc., so the challenge will be to pay attention enough to hear the doorbell after the inevitable 20 minute lulls between rings.

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 12:28 PM (GeD0A)

146

This isn't that hard.   Obama got 53% in 2008 at a time when the economy was imploding and it really was someone else's fault; against a weak candidate with a problematic VP candidate; and with a tabula rasa content-free personality that made it easy to think he was the Messiah come to bring bipartisan nirvana.   But he still only got 53%.   Does anybody really think Americans are so divorced from reality that 3-4% of his majority will ignore the fact that the economy is still very bad and it is his fault now; or won't respond to a much stronger candidate with a much stronger VP; and after they've seen Obama's true colors as a nasty Chicago pol come out in the three debates?  

Romney only needs to swing a small segment of America, and he's doing that.  

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 12:28 PM (qHCyt)

147

137 -

 

Word is, that's why the Cardinals gave up against the Giants in the NLCS.

 

We're out of pretzels. 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 12:28 PM (TOk1P)

148 I predict that if Obama loses, he comes out and makes a statement promising to be more open to considering Republican ideas in his second term, and then simply writes an executive order for a second term.

Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 12:28 PM (znT2j)

149 I'm going to block out the election till Tuesday.  It has me chasing my tail.

I'll be a wreck by Tuesday night.


Alexthechik,

Gary Oldman is HAWT!  The man makes me swoon no matter what part he is playing.

Posted by: mpfs, BOO! at October 31, 2012 12:29 PM (iYbLN)

150 Would everyone please stop complaining about the Hellen Thomas picture? It's Halloween! Get into the spirit of things!

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 12:29 PM (jKE+Z)

151 Good question. But the whole concept of RCP is flawed. Averaging out a bunch of polls taken at different times and with different amounts of liberal-only bias doesn't help you know any more.

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 05:25 PM (qPJ3b)


That's why I think a polling aggregate site that let users pick and choose which firms to include in their results (as well as time frames) would be useful.  Let users build their own custom reports and and Electoral Maps based on the full universe of polling.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 31, 2012 12:30 PM (UypUQ)

152

I don't celebrate Halloween since  I'm Christian, but I  use it to  hand out Gospel tracts; this year I am adding anti-O lit (Hillbuzz made printable "palm-cards"  stating that "The Hope and The Change" is free on hulu). Can't wait for the doorbell to ring.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 12:30 PM (KL49F)

153

139 -

 

I'm going to assume if Romney is holding onto campaign money, it's because he knows he's going to need it in 2016. 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 12:30 PM (TOk1P)

154 Anxiously awaiting the early bird/toddler wave of Trick-or-Treaters.

I'm a little worried that I don't have enough candy. My subdivision is full of people that still have jobs, and everyone's expecting the rest of the city to take advantage.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:30 PM (4+LTj)

155

What does it mean when everyone goes to Wisconsin?

 

 

---------------------------------------------

 

 

For the SCOAMT, I think it's desparation.  For RR, I thinks it's because they have the  campaign  money to do so.  Seal the deal, so to speak.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 12:30 PM (XkwyM)

156 I predict that if Obama loses, he comes out and makes a statement promising to be more open to considering Republican ideas in his second term, and then simply writes an executive order for a second term. Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 05:28 PM (znT2j) Heh...you may be right....but more likely Michelle and the girls will beat the shit out of him and drag his scrawny ass to their million dollar Hawaiian mansion.

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (JWLqy)

157 It's  going to be a long week.  Should have  gone on  vacation.

Posted by: SH at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (gmeXX)

158 Just took jakehound for her daily walk -- 2 more Romney yard signs since yesterday.

Posted by: jakeman at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (96M6e)

159 Ya Know I am actually starting to feel sorry for Greggums He has to come here & post that ABC with it's D+6 poll has His God Tied ! hahaha

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (ck76k)

160 Hillbuzz already did a post debunking those who think the hurricane will help O; one good photo-op does not erase the past four wasted years.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 05:27 PM (KL49F)

Personally, I approve of how he handled it...staying home and getting aid routed in asap.  Not that I'm going to vote for him when he is batting one for about 12 in handling disasters.

Same with Bin Laden.  Props for doing what 99 percent of the population would do in a second. 

Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (z1N6a)

161 this post is beyond nutty. Romney isn't still "stubbornly behind" in swing state polls. even in Ohio, he's caught obama in recent polling. Romney/Ryan will win the  other so-called battleground states. now, the good guys are making the dems sweat in Wisconsin,Michigan,Pennsylvania and Minnesota. it is all good.

Posted by: jackson murrell at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (XQ0gk)

162 Gary Oldman is HAWT! The man makes me swoon no matter what part he is playing. Posted by: mpfs, BOO! at October 31, 2012 05:29 PM (iYbLN) --Can't comment on his hotness, but he was great in The Book of Eli.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 12:31 PM (jKE+Z)

163 @78: You're exactly right. What the polls show is that the only way Romney loses is if he does worse than McCain. That won't happen. So why is Romney in Wisconsin? Because he can be. He needs one more state. It can be IA, WI, MI, PA, NH, OR or NM. He's been campaigning in NH with Ann a lot lately. And to clinch what's been going on for weeks, Obama was up in NH even though there are NO scenarios where NH can help him. NONE! So why is Obama in NH? He was there just this weekend. The answer is that he knew he had lost OH at least two weeks ago. If you noticed, he's been going to NV, IA and NH like crazy (and occasionally in CO, but that has since turned against Obama). Romney needs one more state and Obama was trying to stop him more than two week ago. What's going on now in WI is Romney twisting the knife. If Romney gets WI, he doesn't even need OH. He's pissing on Obama right now. The campaign that's having more fun always wins. That's Romney.

Posted by: MrX at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (PxmNZ)

164 By the way Sean Trende is a TARD

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (ck76k)

165 I can't believe anyone would go wobbly in the 208th week of the election. That's just amazing bullshit to me. Buck up and look around.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (TR60b)

166

I'm a little worried that I don't have enough candy. My subdivision is full of people that still have jobs, and everyone's expecting the rest of the city to take advantage.

 

Well that's kind of depressing.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (fsLdt)

167 It's Halloween! Get into the spirit of things! I'd rather watch a Halloween meets Friday the 13th marathon than look at that ghoulish visage.

Posted by: toby928 for TB at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (QupBk)

168 Meiczyslaw, my neighborhood is in a similar boat. Seems like half the kids come in cars that cruise the streets looking for houses with lights on. I feel bad for the kids.

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (GeD0A)

169

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 05:28 PM (qHCyt)

 

You really think the economy in '08 was "really someone else's fault"? You do know that the Dems took over Congress in Jan  '07  and the budgets that led to the crash were all approved and  voted for by OBAMA, right? The Dems pushed Fannie/Freddie against BUSH's advice and it was Fannie/Freddie that led to the crash. If O inherited anything, he inherited it from himself since he voted for the policies!

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 12:32 PM (KL49F)

170 It's Halloween! Get into the spirit of things!

I bought an extra 18-pack of eggs last week.  Juuuuust sayin'.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 31, 2012 12:33 PM (ZKzrr)

171 Beckel is about to blow, trying to deflect accusations about Benghazi.

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 12:33 PM (gjIQF)

172 @JayCostTWS So let's wrap our mind around this one, gang. Princeton Survey Research
Associates did the Pew poll from 10/24 to 10/28. Found a tie.

Princeton Survey Research Associates did the National Journal poll from 10/25 to 10/28, found Obama up 5.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 31, 2012 05:24 PM (YjDyJ)


Sign a third check, they can make the same data sing a frickin' aria for you.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 12:33 PM (z1N6a)

173 Personally, I approve of how he handled it...staying home and getting aid routed in asap. Not that I'm going to vote for him when he is batting one for about 12 in handling disasters.Same with Bin Laden. Props for doing what 99 percent of the population would do in a second. Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 05:31 PM (z1N6a) --Funny how Chris Rock used to mock people with that mentality, but now washes 0bama's balls.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 12:33 PM (jKE+Z)

174 Don't look now, but RCP has it all tied up.

Posted by: Crashpanic at October 31, 2012 12:33 PM (QYb3Q)

175 Well that's kind of depressing.

Welcome to California.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:34 PM (4+LTj)

176 150 I predict that if Obama loses, he comes out and makes a statement promising to be more open to considering Republican ideas in his second term, and then simply writes an executive order for a second term. Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 05:28 PM (znT2j) I'm LOLing so I don't have an anxiety attack! Nice!

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 12:34 PM (qPJ3b)

177 I get the point and agree. Which is why this 78% certainty stuff from Silver is absurd in the face of national polls showing Romney ahead. I think optimism on our side is well founded though. When you see movement in both state and national polls in the same direction, and that pretty much is what we are getting here, I think it bodes well. Rants on big bird and binders are keeping Ohio from budging, but their neighbors east, north and west are moving rapidly in Romney's direction? Sure, it's possible, but wouldn't call it likely.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 31, 2012 12:34 PM (/BwGa)

178 I wanna run in 2016!

Posted by: Chris Christie at October 31, 2012 12:34 PM (60GaT)

179

I'd rather watch a Halloween meets Friday the 13th marathon than look at that ghoulish visage.

 

I swear to G-d it's getting worse everytime I look at it.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 12:34 PM (fsLdt)

180 Wait, so AtC is tackling other Ettes, handing out tequila AND giving out massages??? Thread of the day.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (GEICT)

181 I'm dead. side bar halloween photo killed me.

Posted by: Boner at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (2cfUo)

182

>>Gary Oldman is HAWT! The man makes me swoon no matter what part he is playing.

 

I think you mean Brian Denehey.

Posted by: garrett at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (m18GQ)

183

In my area of Chicagoland, four Romney signs to ZERO Obama signs. Heck, I've even seen equal numbers of signs for Walsh vs Duckworth.

 

The only thing disheartening is one section has a slew of signs for this  a  local Dem candidate running for state house.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (KL49F)

184 Meiczyslaw, my neighborhood is in a similar boat. Seems like half the kids come in cars that cruise the streets looking for houses with lights on. I feel bad for the kids. Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 05:32 PM (GeD0A) most of the kids around here go to local parties/boo zoo/fall festivals. I found that out after buying wayyyy too much candy we ended up bringing it to our church for their fall festival/tailgate trick or treating

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (JWLqy)

185

Romney bugging out of Ohio for Wisconsin to get the winning margin makes sense only if he is also winning Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.  Is that the state of the race as everyone else understands it with IA, CO and NV obviously going for Romney?  And Romney isn't there to pull Tommy across the finish line, if Tommy can't win on his own Romney has no shot. 

Posted by: Joe at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (9r3GM)

186 It sure does seem that Romney has bambi's team scrambling and following him around, nipping at Mitt's heels. On the Defense. Romney's all Offense, which should be the incumbent. In the meantime, the collective WE are dodging Matrix bullets and crawling over glass to vote.

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (LpQbZ)

187 My theory (for which I have no evidence and is mostly wishcasting) is that the state polls are less reliable because they focus mostly on swing states.

People in swing states like OH, PA, NV, etc have been getting endlessly bombarded with campaign ads, mailers, door knockers and calls.  There's going to come a point where most people just tune it out and hang up on cold callers.  Especially if they've already voted or are 100% decided on who they'll vote for.

In that scenario, who is going to be more likely to participate in a phone poll?  A worried Obama cultist eager to proclaim their undying support for The One?  Or a Republican who is motivated to vote Romney but distrusts (not without reason) the MSM and the polls?

I suspect the former.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (SY2Kh)

188 SalenaZito @SalenaZitoTrib Christie Obama event not a bromance partisans local/state/feds always work to get things done in a disaster situation this is called normal

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (ck76k)

189 "His conclusion: They can't both be right. One series of data must be wrong. (Or, actually: At least one series of data must be wrong. They could both be wrong.)"

Two men say they're Jesus; one of them must be wrong.

Posted by: Mark Knopfler, worring about Industrial Disease at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (kqqGm)

190 --Funny how Chris Rock used to mock people with that mentality, but now washes 0bama's balls. Posted by: logprof

I just threw up in my mouth.

Posted by: mpfs, BOO! at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (iYbLN)

191 I still don't get why having Ryan on the ticket doesn't make WI a lock.

Posted by: toby928 for TB at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (QupBk)

192 Everyone Obama campaigned for in 2009 and 2010 lost. Maybe he's doing the situation room thing so he doesn't accidentally lose it for himself by campaigning?

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (qPJ3b)

193

Trende  makes a good point to say, it is difficult to see how Obama could take 7/10 of the most populated states which account for about 40% of the population  and still lose the popular vote.  That makes a lot of sense.

 

So assuming both can't be right,  I am simply looking to other things - which is what Ace did.

 

It's  not simply paper endorsements,  let's look at individual writers as well.  In 2008, we were bleeding our soft conservative writers,  now in 2012, they are.  If they haven't outright lost them, others have written that they are voting for Obama with relunctance. 

 

Let's look at money.  In 2008, Obama was swimming in it.  And he got all of Wall Street.  In 2012, the tide is reversed.  Mitt isn't getting all of Wall Street, but much more.  Wall Street bets on the winner.

 

Anecdotal  -  there is no doubt that any person can  give ample of anecdotal evidence that the Obama mystique is gone.

 

Add it all up, and all the momentum is with Romney.  So  if you had to pick the national polls or state polls, I'd go with the national ones for all the other reasons.

 

 

Posted by: SH at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (gmeXX)

194 Here's the scoop on that Marquette University poll

http://www.620wtmj.com/blogs/charliesykes/176653801.html

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:36 PM (P6QsQ)

195 190 SalenaZito @SalenaZitoTrib Christie Obama event not a bromance partisans local/state/feds always work to get things done in a disaster situation this is called normal Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 05:36 PM (ck76k) I know, I know. But I do not want those OH, VA, and PA swing voters to get nostalgic about their old boyfriend

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 12:37 PM (Dnbau)

196 I'm doing a little twist and handing out Rice Krispy Treats (the kind sold in the store --don't want cautious parents to panic). I always wished more people had given them out when I was a kid --but then I'm not even sure if they could be store-bought back in the late '70s/early '80s.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 12:37 PM (jKE+Z)

197 Beckel is about to blow, trying to deflect accusations about Benghazi. Has Barney Fwank been alerted ??

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 12:37 PM (ck76k)

198 Hopefully, the 7th of November will be like awakening after an all night drunk in a strange town to an unknown shape in the bed next to you.

You vaguely recall talking to them somewhere and you thought they were attractive but you think you might have deceived yourself.

Now in the cold sobering morning, you're starting to remember some of what happened, what you did, what they did and where.

Now all you can think of is "can I get my clothes on and out of the room before they wake up and I have to face them, sober."

You aren't thinking about how much money is left in your wallet or where your car may be or that vague sense that you should check your voicemail and maybe delete a few things off the phone before you go home.

You'll remember eventually.

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 12:37 PM (hqI/K)

199 165 @78: .....So why is Romney in Wisconsin? Because he can be. He needs one more state. It can be IA, WI, MI, PA, NH, OR or NM.

****
Not sure which states you're giving Romney but he does NOT need one more state if he takes FL, NC, VA, OH, and CO.  He'd have 274 EC votes.

Or is my math off?

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 12:37 PM (DQMcq)

200 I'd guess that national level polls are more accurate. Gallup and Rasmussen are not going to shit away their reputations by pushing intentionally inaccurate polls to boost the morale of Democrat Party operatives. No one is going to hold some of these more obscure polling outfits (like PPP, Quinipiac, Zogby) accountable if they are wildly inaccurate. If Romney is up by as much as Gallup says then he's not going to lose Ohio or Virginia or Florida. The issue with the Electoral College vote not matching the popular vote only comes into play when the popular vote is very closely divided as in significantly less than 1%.

Posted by: Naes at October 31, 2012 12:38 PM (r4dYV)

201 I wanna run in 2016!

Really?  I wanna run in 2017!

Posted by: Joe Biden at October 31, 2012 12:38 PM (SY2Kh)

202 I'm handing out glow bracelets...I don't need any left over candy

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 12:38 PM (JWLqy)

203 Meiczyslaw, my neighborhood is in a similar boat. Seems like half the kids come in cars that cruise the streets looking for houses with lights on. I feel bad for the kids.

That's part of why I hope I have enough candy. The story is that the Trick-or-Treaters park at the Park at the bottom of the hill and hit the houses on the way up.

(I say, "the story" because they're new neighbors for me. I got to move earlier this year. Was tired of being the only home owner in a sea of rentals.)

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:38 PM (4+LTj)

204 What does it mean when everyone goes to Wisconsin? Fondue?

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 12:39 PM (gjIQF)

205 My theory (for which I have no evidence and is mostly wishcasting) is that the state polls are less reliable because they focus mostly on swing states.

People in swing states like OH, PA, NV, etc have been getting endlessly bombarded with campaign ads, mailers, door knockers and calls. There's going to come a point where most people just tune it out and hang up on cold callers. Especially if they've already voted or are 100% decided on who they'll vote for.

In that scenario, who is going to be more likely to participate in a phone poll? A worried Obama cultist eager to proclaim their undying support for The One? Or a Republican who is motivated to vote Romney but distrusts (not without reason) the MSM and the polls?

I suspect the former.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 05:36 PM (SY2Kh)


Of course, then in 2008 Obama should have been well behind in the polls by that logic.

It is just manipulation. Jay Cost did a distribution of polls showing that it wasn't even normally distributed about the mean, and the mean of different polls are different.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 12:39 PM (z1N6a)

206 I want to pass a law that any 18 yea old who is still trick or treating is not allowed to vote.

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 12:40 PM (Dnbau)

207 SalenaZito @SalenaZitoTrib
Christie Obama event not a bromance partisans local/state/feds always work to get things done in a disaster situation this is called normal

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 05:36 PM (ck76k)


--------------


What is not normal is the gushing, the slobbering and the kissy kissy.  Christie could just as easily have said, "President Obama's administration is cooperating fully with our efforts here in New Jersey."  Full stop. 


But no.  He had to write a sonnet.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:40 PM (P6QsQ)

208 I still don't get why having Ryan on the ticket doesn't make WI a lock.

If Althouse is to be believed, it's because Madison is insane.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:40 PM (4+LTj)

209

Romney is doing better than McCain.

 

The evangelicals will support Romney, because they have seen the alternative in action. 

 

People are pissed about obamacare.

 

Millions are unemployed.

 

Hundreds of millions are making less today than in 2008. 

 

But Obama is going to win?

 

That is...

Posted by: cognitive dissonance at October 31, 2012 12:40 PM (zLp5I)

210

Helen Thomas,........

 

I F'd her.....OOOOOooooooh11111

Posted by: Dice at October 31, 2012 12:41 PM (2cfUo)

211 I just heard of the "Boo Zoo" thing this year. Not a bad idea, but it shouldn't replace the good old traditional T-and T-ing.


In the year 2050 I'll be the crazy old man chasing kids down the street trying to throw candy at them on Halloween.

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 12:41 PM (GeD0A)

212 @ mama - Reince wouldn't be putting in another million and Romney wouldn't be wasting his time Friday. Common sense alone would dictate that MU poll is a steaming pile of horseshit...of course our concern trolls here seem lacking in that necessary common sense.


Posted by: H Badger at October 31, 2012 12:42 PM (n/0Nw)

213 I'm doing a little twist and handing out Rice Krispy Treats (the kind sold in the store --don't want cautious parents to panic).

The wife set up her deep-frier in front of a friend's house one year, and passed out fresh donut holes. The kids looked down on 'em, but the parents loved 'em.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:42 PM (4+LTj)

214 SalenaZito @SalenaZitoTrib Smart move by Romney campaign to send Marco Rubio to Delaware County Pennsylvania w/ Chester & Bucks trending GOP #Pennsyltucky

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (ck76k)

215 I still don't get why having Ryan on the ticket doesn't make WI a lock.

If Althouse is to be believed, it's because Madison is insane.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 05:40 PM (4+LTj)


But the fact that there was no narrowing, and hardly any polling done there to see makes me think that its another case of push-polling.  We can't see a blue state turning red and crush the Obama inevitability wagon.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (z1N6a)

216 If Althouse is to be believed, it's because Madison is insane.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 05:40 PM (4+LTj)

--------------



You don't need Althouse to know Madison is insane. Not just insane, evil too.  I seriously cannot go to that town.  It's oppressive.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (P6QsQ)

217 @187: Romney has OH. With WI, he doesn't need OH. He need NH or IA or NV. Not the combination you're talking about. Romney is already at 270. He's now going for the mandate. Ryan already mentioned this the other day.

Posted by: MrX at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (PxmNZ)

218 I trust the Star Khan.

Posted by: toby928 for TB at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (QupBk)

219 "Pennsyltucky?" Sounds Confederate.

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (60GaT)

220

Everyone needs to remember that the democrat strategy for this election is to depress the  GOP turnout.  That is the only possibility that they eke out a win. 

And by democrat, I include many of the 'pollsters' out there.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 12:43 PM (F0K0r)

221 You don't need Althouse to know Madison is insane. Not just insane, evil too. I seriously cannot go to that town. It's oppressive.

Ah, good. If that comes up again, I can say, "if mama winger can be believed."

That sounds better.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:44 PM (4+LTj)

222 I can't wait to hear David Axelrod say once the election results are in: " You know the real winner of Obama's election loss is Obama and the Democrats! Because um, um,... This 5 point loss was actually Americans saying they want bigger government and more gay marriage."
Or he'll say something like: "Well if the corporate Nazi Republican party had chosen a real candidate instead of the worst candidate ever then they would have won by 30 points." Some shit like that.

He might be the WORST liberal analyst that they put on TV because he has zero capacity to anticipate likely questions or think on his feet. Carville is a douche but at least he occasionally stumbles into accurate analysis.







Posted by: Naes at October 31, 2012 12:44 PM (r4dYV)

223 That sounds better.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 05:44 PM (4+LTj)

----------------



  lol



Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 31, 2012 12:45 PM (P6QsQ)

224 "I don't get the 6% of early voters in the Pew poll that say "Don't know". ???!!"

I think that's short for "None of your damned business."

Posted by: Anne B. at October 31, 2012 12:45 PM (f3owF)

225 Everyone needs to remember that the democrat strategy for this election is to depress the GOP turnout. That is the only possibility that they eke out a win.
And by democrat, I include many of the 'pollsters' out there.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 05:43 PM (F0K0r)


Plus even the good pollsters don't want to be too out in front and be tarred by the liberal media as ruining the election.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 31, 2012 12:45 PM (z1N6a)

226 Skip the Christie bash for a second and see the wipeout in NJ

http://tinyurl.com/csp9lrj

#22 in the slideshow features a Tony Soprano lookalike

Posted by: DaveA at October 31, 2012 12:46 PM (MOWP1)

227 There have been eight elections since 1976, and in six of these one party or the other has gained at least eight points between elections. If Romney is ahead by one - well, that's an eight point swing from 1976. In those six elections, a grand total of about eight states moved against the tide (and in several of those elections, none did). The idea that only select states are moving towards Romney is utter hogwash. They're all moving - the only question is are the ones in the middle moving strong enough.

Posted by: Paul Zummo at October 31, 2012 12:46 PM (6JU6C)

228 Why does this entire post seem so familiar?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 12:47 PM (dX4hn)

229 this is a good position to be in, we were supposedly trying to be fighting for florida and north carolina to eke out a victory, now we're going for 300

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 12:47 PM (QxSug)

230 Saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose last night. My foremost thought was that maybe this is just one of those people that isn't quite as bright as he imagines himself being. That's not to say he isn't smart. It's just that history proves repeatedly that the biggest screw ups come from pretty smart people that think they are exceptionally smart people.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 31, 2012 12:47 PM (/BwGa)

231 Meant to write that Romney +1 would be an eight point swing since 2008. Duh.

Posted by: Paul Zummo at October 31, 2012 12:48 PM (6JU6C)

232 It's just that history proves repeatedly that the biggest screw ups come from pretty smart people that think they are exceptionally smart people.

I've always thought it takes really smart people to talk themselves into doing something really stupid. Stupid people aren't smart enough to delude themselves that way.

Which means, of course, "smart" doesn't really mean what we think it means sometimes.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:51 PM (4+LTj)

233 The best polls are the campaigns internal polls, and does anyone really think that Romney going into Michigan and Pennsylvania with multi-million dollar ad buys looks like a campaign that think it's losing the swing states?  

 Or that Obama by sending out Clinton to Minnesota and buying ads in Detroit is comfortably ahead?  If Obama was making big million dollar ad buys in states like Arizona I would be like "Oh Shit", that's basically the significance of Romney going into Minnesota, PA and MI.

Also, just the tone of the campaigns tells you all you need to know.  Romney would be screaming "Benghazi!" at the top of his lungs at every opportunity if he thought he was behind. 

Not saying it's a done deal, but I feel good about Romney's chances, especially when you look at how well he's doing with independent voters, which comes through in nearly every poll.

Posted by: McAdams at October 31, 2012 12:51 PM (2FqGG)

234

The excuse for the poor polling on Wednesday will be a sudden last minute shift in sentiment and voting patterns due to Sandy. 

"the president appeared aloof to the avg. voter"

 

Not Benghazi (what's that?) or the debates.  And they will not admit how they were off by almost 20 points in some states. 

Posted by: inaccurate polls R us at October 31, 2012 12:52 PM (zLp5I)

235 Or that Obama by sending out Clinton to Minnesota and buying ads in Detroit is comfortably ahead?

The telling thing is that both campaigns are going to the same place, and it's supposedly blue. McCain going to PA didn't mean anything, because Obama didn't follow.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:52 PM (4+LTj)

236 230 Why does this entire post seem so familiar? Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 05:47 PM (dX4hn) I lamented on an earlier thread that there wasn't someone who could break down all these polls, tell us what's bs and reweight things so we could get a clearer picture. A commenter immediately went into a spiel about how that was impossible. Sarcasm missed.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 31, 2012 12:52 PM (GEICT)

237 Why does this entire post seem so familiar?

Speaking of, I've actually linked your blog from a couple of places. If you get weird referring pages, that might be my fault.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 31, 2012 12:54 PM (4+LTj)

238

Gallup and Rasmussen are not going to shit away their reputations by pushing intentionally inaccurate polls to boost the morale of Democrat Party operatives.

Posted by: Naes at October 31, 2012 05:38 PM (r4dYV)

I don't know why they wouldn't if they desperately want Obama reelected. Look at the mainstream press. Some, like Newsweek, became Pravda for the sake of the Obama Administration. Others, such as the three major networks, along with papers of record such as WashPo and the NYT, have deliberately buried the Benghazi coverup story and have even actively promoted the 'spontaneous protest/Islamic blasphemy outrage' story for weeks, long after the facts had become known. The words 'Fast and Furious' spark recognition among only a comparative handful of the general public. We've seen a score of respected polling firms, big and small, assigning impossible D+ weights into this, the last week of the presidential campaign.

 

The Left is all in on this one. If Romney wins, the 'progressive' Left will be in the political wilderness for the next 8 years--at least. The stakes couldn't be higher. So yes, of course reputable polling firms would sell out, obviously, naturally.

Posted by: troyriser at October 31, 2012 12:56 PM (vtiE6)

239 Romney election-eve rally (with Kid Rock) is at Verizon Center in Manchester, NH. (11,000 capacity).

This would jive with WI advertise push - as WI (10) + NH (4) would be insurance for Ohio loss.

Posted by: nhwingnut at October 31, 2012 12:57 PM (DhgCF)

240 The telling thing is that both campaigns are going to the same place, and it's supposedly blue. McCain going to PA didn't mean anything, because Obama didn't follow.

Bingo!  If it was truly a head fake, Obama wouldn't follow.  If Obama started buying ads in Missouri or Arizona, Romney would laugh at him and say carry on.

Also, campaigns don't spend millions in states they know they can't win in order to impress political junkies.

Posted by: McAdams at October 31, 2012 12:58 PM (2FqGG)

241 @201: You're right. With OH and CO, he's at 275. CO was the other state he needed and he already has it. It's even worse for Obama than I thought. Still, think about why Obama has been in NH for weeks, even this weekend! NH gives nothing to Obama. Now that I look at it some more, I think when CO flipped, that's the exact moment Obama lost. If you recall, Romney stepped aside and said a quiet prayer after his huge 10,000+ rally. He was saying they were actually going to do this. Then Ryan recently comes out and says that what they really need is a mandate to go against Obama's policies.

Posted by: MrX at October 31, 2012 01:00 PM (PxmNZ)

242

Ace- relax dude. I'm not saying it's in the bag but hey - do you believe any poll that shows D turnout INCREASING over 2008? All these polls weighted on 2008 turnout are EPIC FAIL. Especially OH ones.

All anecdotal evidence shows this, including early voting being down for Dems, party affiliation ID, and - most importantly - Obama spending so much time trying to get the yute vote to turn out again.

Romney wins OH and WI. My call.

 

PS- Will Ace/CAC et al. be making their official predictions prior to election day? Would be kind of nice for you all to provide a benchmark to check you against.... 

Posted by: trump at October 31, 2012 01:04 PM (F8Lnm)

243 Love me some Gary Oldman*. And the fact that he's actually, you know, a conservative AND a top-notch actor pisses off all the Lefties who usually point out that Hollywood conservatives are nothing but "grade-B" actors. And that makes me smile.

*No homo

Posted by: Punahou Death Stare at October 31, 2012 01:05 PM (sTS/8)

244 These bullshit polls are being generated to keep Democratic enthusiasm up in order to reduce losses in the House and Senate. If accurate numbers were being reported a good number of Democrat voters would stay at home and they'd lose the Senate for sure. I really think that's the party's main focus right now.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at October 31, 2012 01:10 PM (jCjXh)

245 Of course, then in 2008 Obama should have been well behind in the polls by that logic.It is just manipulation. Jay Cost did a distribution of polls showing that it wasn't even normally distributed about the mean, and the mean of different polls are different.

2008 wasn't a competitive race, without as intense a focus on a handful of states.  In addition, Obama voters were even more enthralled with him and GOP voters were much less enthusiastic.

Partisan outfits like PPP aside, the likes of Gallup and Rasmussen aren't going to trash their entire business model for the sake of manipulating polls and appearing incompetent.

Where they might be flawed (aside from relying on voluntary participation) is demographic weighting.  I suspect we'll see a higher proportion of white voters, with a lower proportion of young ones than 2008.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 01:10 PM (SY2Kh)

246 *No homo

Posted by: Punahou Death Stare at October 31, 2012 06:05 PM (sTS/

 

Thanks for the clarification. If you hadn't put it there, people would wonder about it, whisper among themselves, cast furtive, sidelong glances your way. Oh, I see you collect bodybuilding magazines? Nothing wrong with that, certainly. To each his own, I say.

Posted by: troyriser at October 31, 2012 01:11 PM (vtiE6)

247 The figures are so rubbery as to be meaningless - it's the trends which are informative.

Posted by: perturbed at October 31, 2012 01:15 PM (vcAVl)

248 I'm drinking my way to prosperity.

Posted by: d_fitz at October 31, 2012 01:20 PM (vu3g7)

249 Sigh.  Sometimes the cement in so thick a jackhammer couldn't break through.    In any event, at the risk of a ringing headache from concussive   contact with a brick wall, the "state polls" are favoring Obama because nearly   across the board they're oversampling Democrats and undersampling   Republicans, undersampling Independents (breaking for Romney by colossal   margins, even according to the very same slanted liberal media polls),   oversampling women, undersampling Protestants and Catholics, oversampling   those without religion, oversampling Obama voters from '08, undersampling   McCain voters from '08 and, just for good measure, oversampling liberals.    Clue in. 

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at October 31, 2012 01:22 PM (pmsMR)

250 QT/ Collin Powell is in a new ad for obama... That miserable piece of shit...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 01:31 PM (9+ccr)

251 Thanks for the clip from that masterpiece from Luc Besson, with possibly Natalie Portman's finest role (stupefying that a little girl could play so real) to date, and France's own John Wayne, Jean Reno, and Gerhardt Altman as the corrupt DEA officer is pretty much right about Beethoven (but don't get me started about who is probably the greatest genius who ever lived: he was DEAF when he composed his 9th Symphony, deaf, Oh, God), and who has the shortest zero-to-maximum intensity accelerator of any living actor, probably. It is certainly an evocative fragestellung for the question, now, thankfully, settled by the Bard of Cape Girardeau: polls are tools. When the gangbangers do a drive-by, it's kind of mooted whether this or that 9mm came from a Glock or a MAC or something else. It's effin' pollsters, Jake.

Posted by: Thorvald at October 31, 2012 01:39 PM (1V6Pv)

252 Rasmussen has Romney up by 2, margin of error 3.  He's been saying for quite a while that the race is essentially tied.  The only thing that makes me hope Romney might win is the undecideds breaking for him in the next few days.  Right now I don't think we can say Romney has a lock.  It seems crazy that they'd re-elect Obama, but then I thought they were crazy in 2008.  It's dangerous to overestimate the American voter.

Posted by: chris at October 31, 2012 01:57 PM (KDAAY)

253 you know, you have to hand it to the GOP. They didn't screw up the 2010 surge. There's still a version of history that the historic 1994 surge was blunted and screwed up by GOP, leading to Clinton's reelection (and not HR Perot). So, here, there are no 3rd party candidates to screw things up.* *=scary thought, in 2000&2004 we had Ralph Nader to bleed off insane lib votes for DNC. So, this time, it's all even stevens. Who knows how much Nader helped the GOP.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 31, 2012 02:11 PM (QxSug)

254 *=scary thought, in 2000&2004 we had Ralph Nader to bleed off insane lib votes for DNC. So, this time, it's all even stevens. Who knows how much Nader helped the GOP.

Republicans also had Pat Buchanan, a Constitutional Party candidate and a Libertarian candidate to deal with.  It was essentially a push with Nader. 

But Nader did bleed off just enough in Florida to make Dubya President, but the untold story is several states in 2000 would have gone for Bush had they not bled support from the conservative coalition.

The big thing to remember in 2000 was a Republican won despite the best economic conditions ever, the fact that Gore blew that election to George W. Bush is unfathonable.


Posted by: McAdams at October 31, 2012 02:33 PM (2FqGG)

255

Ok just donated one last time for Romney. I'm exhausted.

======

You're not supposed to donate sperm.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 31, 2012 02:43 PM (9ghZ6)

256 Offense! Mitts a MI boy, Ryans a WI son, offense wins the day, defense, leading from behind, loses. Romney Ryan shooting for 310 and will settle for 295. OblahBlah is losing states by the bucketfull if this goes three more weeks team OBlahBlah will be reduced to defending Californica and New Yawk!
Finish Them!

Posted by: ConcealedKerry Or SubMitt at October 31, 2012 03:36 PM (MGWfm)

257 Ace, if I admit that I am toast, will you come butter me?

Posted by: #OccupyResoluteDesk at October 31, 2012 05:14 PM (7QU6R)

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