October 31, 2012

Important Point From NumberMuncher
— Ace

NumberMuncher made a good point on Twitter, a general "I Call Bullshit" statement on the various polls showing Obama with big leads in Ohio, Virginia, and even North Carolina (!!!).

It's very simple: Swing states are swing states because neither party has much of a lead in the states. The outcome of any election, then, depends heavily on which way Independents vote.

A swing state is a swing state, basically, because the parties are tied there (basically, within a few points), and the Independents play tiebreaker.

Any state in which Obama loses Independents by six, eight, or ten points but somehow -- as these polls claims -- wins the state anyway are not "swing states," almost by definition.

We have a name for this category of states: We call them Safe Democratic states, where it really doesn't matter what Independents think because the Democratic majority is strong enough to carry the state in virtually any situation.

The welter of sillyass polls from Quinnippiac, CBS and the laughable PPP keep finding that Obama loses Independents, usually by six points or more, and yet Obama nevertheless triumphs.

I mean, for God's sake, this CBS/Qunnippiac poll has Romney up 21 points with Independents in Virginia but still has Obama winning!

Again, if this were the case, then they're not really swing states.

Sure, if Obama loses Independents by 21 points in Virginia he can win the state... if Virginia is Delaware.

But Virginia is not Delaware, and Ohio isn't Maryland, either.

Independents also provide an indirect but real indication of where soft Democrats and soft Republicans are leaning. When Independents side with Romney, you can be reasonably sure that soft Republicans (more inclined to vote for Romney than Independents) are also voting for Romney, and you can also hazard a guess that some soft Democrats are voting for Romney too.

Two vids swiped from Breitbart TV. First, Mark Halperin makes this point, and then Halperin asks David Axelrod if he thinks Obama's ahead with Independents, and asks him to explain why polls say Obama is behind.

Axelrod seems flummoxed.



Posted by: Ace at 09:51 AM | Comments (270)
Post contains 354 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Axelrod looks mosty stupid.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 31, 2012 09:54 AM (u82oZ)

2 first

Posted by: Red Shirt at October 31, 2012 09:54 AM (FIDMq)

3 Dang

Posted by: Skags at October 31, 2012 09:54 AM (ahsqI)

4 Axelrod -- PBHO's cockholster.

Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 31, 2012 09:54 AM (u82oZ)

5 45 states.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 09:55 AM (7qi+1)

6 cursed

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 09:55 AM (jUytm)

7 An important and obvious point.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 31, 2012 09:56 AM (N/1Dm)

8 Man, it's hard reading a post with that Helen Thomas picture staring at you.

Posted by: jwest at October 31, 2012 09:56 AM (ZDsRL)

9 I just don't see how Romney loses this.

Posted by: Skags at October 31, 2012 09:56 AM (ahsqI)

10 Landslide

Posted by: runninrebel at October 31, 2012 09:56 AM (N/1Dm)

11 I mean, for God's sake, this CBS/Qunnippiac poll has Romney up 21 points with Independents in Virginia but still has Obama winning! ______________ It's Magic Math--and I am- The Magic Man!

Posted by: Nate Silver! --Now with more extrapolation! at October 31, 2012 09:57 AM (r2PLg)

12

 

Barack Hussein Obama is a Stuttering Clusterf*ck of a Malevolent Traitor

Posted by: Pipboy 3000 at October 31, 2012 09:57 AM (ggRof)

13 It's MSNBC... Is it safe?

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 09:57 AM (gjIQF)

14

How did he get Uncle Leo's sharpie eyebrows???


Hey, man, it's OK . . .  Really!!  Don't get mad!!!!

Posted by: imp at October 31, 2012 09:57 AM (UaxA0)

15 holy shite, are you singing Heart?

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 09:58 AM (jUytm)

16 I need another poll besides Rasmussen showing Rom up in OH to calm my right-leaning nerves.

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 09:58 AM (60GaT)

17 Axelrod's mustache makes me hard.

Posted by: Jimmy Joe at October 31, 2012 09:58 AM (/YJYi)

18 This has been my main takeaway: Romney wins indies by double digits and has no gender gap to speak of. There is no way that these two metrics add up to close results in swing states.

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 09:59 AM (qPJ3b)

19 I'm inclined to think that Axelrod knows what he is in for.

Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 09:59 AM (3SvjA)

20 Axelrod = Clyde Crashcup

http://tinyurl.com/b9vypp7

Posted by: Othered at October 31, 2012 09:59 AM (EuW9O)

21 Axelfrog always looks like he should have on the uniform of a South American Dictator for life in a bad, bad movie...

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 10:00 AM (kXoT0)

22

I just don't see how Romney loses this. Posted by: Skags

At this point, it's not the vote Romney has to worry about.  It's the question of whether the vote will be held, whether the election will be held up because of "weather," whether the riots will tip the balance in favor of recounts, etc. 

I no longer fear cheating during the vote.  Now it's about the cheating and flat-out lawlessness afterwards.

Posted by: imp at October 31, 2012 10:00 AM (UaxA0)

23 Oh. NumberMuncher. Never mind.

Posted by: hillary clinton at October 31, 2012 10:00 AM (nkiQM)

24 Cold, late night so long ago When I was not so strong you know A pretty man came to me I never seen eyes so blue You know, I could not run away it seemed We'd seen each other in a dream Seemed like he knew me....he looked right through me....yeah "Come on home, girl" he said with a smile "you don't have to love me yet, let's get high awhile But try to understand...try to understand Try, try, try to understand.....He's a magic man" Winter nights we sang in tune Played inside the months of moon "Never think of never..let this spell last forever" Well, summer lover passed to fall Tried to realize it all

Posted by: Markos The Kos at October 31, 2012 10:00 AM (r2PLg)

25 Even if Obama didn't get any votes in Ohio, he'd still win.  It's math and stuff.

Posted by: CBS News Polling at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (QKKT0)

26 Axelrod, you're one . . . ugly motherfucker.

Posted by: Dutch at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (jKE+Z)

27 @HawkinsUSA In-person early vote in Cuya, OH (Dem stronghold) now in outright collapse vs 2008. Down vs 08 by more than 30% last 2 days, down 10% in all

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (YjDyJ)

28 Mark: Why do you think Romney is leading the polls with independents? Hitler Looking Guy: I can't speak to that. It...it, uh, seems to have something to do with how people respond to polls.

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (gjIQF)

29

Illinois used to be a swing state.  Texas was as well, not too long ago.

 

Swing states are swing states until they're not.  What  continues to be  laughable is not the margin  of these polls, but the fact that people think they represent reality. 

 

Bronco Bama swung millions of people when he passed that healthcare obamanation.  You think they forgot? 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (TOk1P)

30 Lawlessness afterwards is a given, regardless of the outcome.

Posted by: grognard at October 31, 2012 10:01 AM (NS2Mo)

31 I love being back in Ohio, home of the Cleveland Steamer and Cincinnati Bowtie.

Posted by: Joe "Rippin and Tearin" Biden at October 31, 2012 10:02 AM (vjyZP)

32 DiF, how many independents are actually former republicans who ditched party affiliation in 2008?  I'm wondering if the samples look funny because of that. 

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (F0K0r)

33 Chris Christie is up for reelection in 2013, yes? ahhh, okay, now I understand.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (jUytm)

34 Scary sh*t. CLASSIC REWIND - 1965: 'If I Were the Devil' (Warning for a Nation) - Paul Harvey http://nation.foxnews.com/paul-harvey/2012/03/21/1965-if-i-were-devil-warning-nation-paul-harvey

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (LpQbZ)

35 The only thing that worries me at this point is that Rasmussen has it pretty close. I hate to be like Pauline Kael, but this should be a damn boat race....arrgh.

Posted by: jjshaka at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (ziA+c)

36 Another takeaway: third party observers are reporting that Obama is turning out his 3s and 4s, while Romney is turning out his 1s and 2s. The 3s and 4a were going to turn out anyway, so Romney's early GOTV is vastly more valuable than Obama's. Why would Obama do this-- turn out his high-propensity voters? My only guess is to drive a narrative of inevitability and also to continue to goose his fundraising. Since he's in debt, that second part matters. I'll stick with my 37-40 state Romney win projection.

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (qPJ3b)

37 I'm sick of polls. They're bs.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (XSFXq)

38 All the polls since the primaries began are bullshit.  I don't trust ANY of them.  I look at other indicators.  And those indicators show that Obama is losing big time.

Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (YdQQY)

39 HELLO!

Posted by: Uncle Leo at October 31, 2012 10:03 AM (s3xYn)

40 Yeah, if gender gap has closed and Indies are breaking Romney the only path for Obama involves 300% minority turnout. Which we could see in Chicago and Cleveland .

Posted by: Beagle at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (sOtz/)

41 Amen.. I hope these pollsters are forced out of business after this election.  Because their polls are worth jack.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (f9c2L)

42 So this video was one of the suggested videos after I watched Axelrod (isn't that name redundant?). Behold low-information voters and their low-information news sources:

http://youtu.be/q-YUkh0slIo

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (DnLl2)

43 if Virginia is Delaware.

Make the hurting stop!!!

P.S. Tom Carper, the dickhead running for re-election for the US Senate, is running ads about how wonderful he is at building bridges and working with Republicans. I'm not about to delude myself that this miserable little state will get its head out of its ass, but it's interesting to note that even he wants to pretend that he's middle of the road.

Meanwhile, Mike Castle refuses to emerge from under his rock with his $4 million dollar war chest. That prick.

Posted by: Blue Hen at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (UW6NX)

44 The Democrats will say this is so, that the JEF is winning even though he is losing independents big in swing states, because 2008 was such a massive event, a fundamental realignment of the electorate.

It's "people loved the Dems so much in 2008, they've decided to call the Dems their new, permanent home."

It's why the stupid polls still use 2008 weighting for party ID instead of the more realistic 2010.

That's what they are clinging to now.

IF there was any evidence this was so--ANY EVIDENCE--I would be worried. But poll after poll after poll of party ID shows the populace is more, far more, 2010 than 2008.

There is not one election since 2008, special, regular or otherwise, CD or larger that the Dems saw an increase in party ID over the previous cycle.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (imtbm)

45 Man, it's hard reading a post with that Helen Thomas picture staring at you.

Seriously, we've been pretty good. Can we not get that swapped with a Halloween cheerleader or two?

http://preview.tinyurl.com/aobp2ar

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (w+lzM)

46

One more point, Ace.   Independents are by definition people who can't decide between Republicans and Democrats.   Another word for "people who can't decide" is, not surprisingly, "undecideds."   So if Romney is ahead with independents who have decided, he is likely to win those likely voters who are actually undecided at this late date.  

 

All of which leads me to the point that many others have made.   If Obama is stuck at 47%, he's not going to miraculously get 50%.   The undecideds may not have decided they like Romney, and they may not have decided that they are going to vote at all, but they have definitely decided they don't like Obama.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (qHCyt)

47 ROMNEY SMASH JUGEARS MCFUCKSTICK!!!

SMASH PUNY GOD!!!!

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (wtvvX)

48 Hey, Boss-man! I put in extra trolling this week. When do I get my bonus?

Posted by: Gregg at October 31, 2012 10:04 AM (jKE+Z)

49 There was an interesting link on RCP (no, I'm not going to look it up for you, princess) suggesting that Axelrod and the pollsters are counting on white turnout to only be around 72% of the total.  They're basing it on the drop in white voter proportion between 2004 and 2008.

The implication was that the pollsters were weighting based on the historically low white voter participation.  If it's closer to 76%, TFG is toast.

Grain of salt and all that though.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 10:05 AM (SY2Kh)

50 Axelrod, you're one . . . ugly motherfucker. Posted by: Dutch at October 31, 2012 03:01 PM (jKE+Z) He always has that blue-green-gray cast about him....very odd

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 10:05 AM (JWLqy)

51 Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 31, 2012 03:01 PM (YjDyJ) )))) Hi hi

Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 10:05 AM (qPJ3b)

52 We're gonna look pretty stupid if all of these polls are right.

Posted by: Othered at October 31, 2012 10:06 AM (EuW9O)

53

Axelrod seems flummoxed.

 

Axelrod would be flummoxed by mashed potatoes.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 10:06 AM (4df7R)

54 @31:  OK, I've heard of the Steamer, but the Bowtie is a new one to me.

Dare I google that at work???

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 10:07 AM (wtvvX)

55 People remeber Bush's lies and it will reflect in this years election. We are still reeling from the Bush lies and President Obama is trying fix them. This why I am voting for President Obama and why he will win big this year. Bush Lied = Obama Lanslide in 2012. Mark my words and the people of Brattleboro, Vermint that it will be a landslide. We will all live Micheale Oblama's words that on " Novemeber 7, We Will All Party Hand"

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 10:07 AM (48wze)

56 Axle grease looks like a meat muppet.

Posted by: maddogg at October 31, 2012 10:08 AM (OlN4e)

57 I agree with Jwest: Could someone please take down that picture of Thomas? It is reallllllly creeping me out.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:08 AM (+paCV)

58 A cursed on Axelrod's mustaches! [ptui]

Posted by: Baghdad joncelli at October 31, 2012 10:08 AM (CWlPF)

59 So I'm not sure I get the point.

Is the point that Ohio ISN'T actually a swing state anymore (which would explain an Obama victory) or that the polls giving Obama the edge cannot be accurate because Ohio IS a swing state?

Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 10:08 AM (znT2j)

60    I need another poll besides Rasmussen showing Rom up in OH to calm my right-leaning nerves.     Wasn't there another poll that   showed Romney up by three in Ohio but everyone dismissed it?    I don't see how any  polling place can get a really good sample   right now.  With people voting on election day and some having already voted,  how can   anyone judge a poll to be   effective?  Also,  did people not forget about the fact that   the Pew study stated that most people lie   during a  polling interview anyway.  Only election day will   tell us what  who   will win---or  maybe the day after. 

Posted by: Mo the Girl at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (cAqkh)

61 Dare I google that at work??? Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 03:07 PM (wtvvX) For the love of all that's holy....DON'T DO IT!

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (JWLqy)

62 Man, it's hard reading a post with that Helen Thomas picture staring at you. And, you know, the thing about Helen... she's got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll's eyes.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows he is Eric Blair at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (AZGON)

63

No one should have to look at photos of Axelrodent after seeing that photo of Helen Thomas on the main page. It qualifies as cruel and unusual punishment.

 

Posted by: USMC8541 at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (v3pYe)

64 Bush won in 2004 despite LOSING independents. If Romney wins independents, and gets a Bush-level turnout, Obama is fucked even if he gets his 2008 turnout level, which at this point seems very unlikely. Frankly, if Romney simply gets a Bush-2004 turnout, it'll be hard for Obama to win even if Romney only breaks even on independents.

Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (wtnmC)

65 All the polls since the primaries began are bullshit. I don't trust ANY of them. I look at other indicators. And those indicators show that Obama is losing big time.

Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 03:03 PM (YdQQY)

 

---------------------------------------

 

 

So do I.  These worthless polls are still trying  desparately  to use 2008 models.  Plus, all you anal poll watchers.  Look around.  I mean  really look around.  What do you see?

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 10:09 AM (7qi+1)

66

52   We're gonna look pretty stupid if all of these polls are right.

 

See Taleb, The Black Swan, chapter entitled "The Scandal of Prediction."   Political pundits and pollsters are notoriously not much better than random guys off the street in predicting elections.   Forget them.   Believe your own eyes.   More Romney signs, more Romney energy, no one talking about "hope and change" at work, etc.   Did you have that feeling in 2008?   No?   Then 2012 ain't like 2008, period.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 10:10 AM (qHCyt)

67 Axelrod said he would shave the perv 'stache if SCOAMF loses CO, WI or MI. Meh. He still looks like Thomas Friedman's ugly twin.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 10:10 AM (+tqYo)

68 Halloween is Satan's work and every candy bar you give out is a piece of your soul gone forever!111

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston Channeling Catholic Joe Biden at October 31, 2012 10:10 AM (KCvsd)

69 Christie: "Was it good for you? I mean too much suction, a little more hand action?"
0bama: "You did fine."

http://tinyurl.com/d5pjhjb

Posted by: Public Service Announcement at October 31, 2012 10:10 AM (feFL6)

70 Is that a variant of the Bulgarian GasMask or the Tennessee Logjammer?

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:11 AM (f95vc)

71

Getting sick of:

1)D+9 polls

2)Showing Obama winning but below 50%

3) And Romney winning Indies by HIGH double-digits.

When I see them, I keep hearing My Cousin Vinny:

"Everything that guy said is bullshit"

Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 10:11 AM (epFGF)

72 Had a Polish Wheelbarrow once but it couldnt top the Mongolian Warhammer

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (f95vc)

73 > Is the point that Ohio ISN'T actually a swing state anymore (which would explain an Obama victory) or that the polls giving Obama the edge cannot be accurate because Ohio IS a swing state?

The second. Ohio elected a Republican governor in 2010. Obama won it by less than he won the national election in 2008.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (DnLl2)

74 Romney 278, Obama 260, Romney wins popular vote. Book it.

Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (CWlPF)

75 " Novemeber 7, We Will All Party Hand"

Now that's the Mary Clogginstein I've come to know & love!!

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (wtvvX)

76 Mz Clogginstein: Your cat called from his acupuncture session and needs to be picked up and taken to his weekly spiritual therapy meeting. He also wants you to bring the free range tuna. Otherwise I can't find fault with your points.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (+paCV)

77 So if Romney is ahead by 20 for independents and independents are roughly 20-30% of the electorate that is good for about 5-6 % .   Correct ?

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (nTgAI)

78 Another intuitive reason Nate Silver is a douchebag hack.

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 10:12 AM (t06LC)

79

Beware the Mesopotamian "Fist of Anger" that can leave a mark...

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:13 AM (f95vc)

80 74 Romney 278, Obama 260, Romney wins popular vote. Book it. Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 03:12 PM (CWlPF) I'm thinking Mitt's EV total will probably top 300.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 10:14 AM (+tqYo)

81

@74

 

279 - 259, R wins ME-2!!

 

I could see it going higher, but that is my min. prediction.

Posted by: NewEnglandDevil at October 31, 2012 10:14 AM (73P68)

82

66

You hit the nail squarely on its head.

I believe my own eyes, not what some pollster, Axel-twat or Nate Silver says.

All that 2010 excitement did not just vanish in two years.

Romney with a big win.

Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 10:14 AM (epFGF)

83 60
Ineed another poll besides Rasmussen showing Rom up in OH to calm my right-leaning nerves.


Wasn't there another poll that showed Romney up by three in Ohio but everyone dismissed it?

**********

Yes, everyone dismissed this one by Rep pollster @TCJResearch showing R 50-47 with an even split:  http://tinyurl.com/bm9k348

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (DQMcq)

84 When in Asia, try the Phillipino Frogwalk....tasty....

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (f95vc)

85 This is 100% accurate: The side that looks tired is losing. The side that looks like they are having fun is winning.

Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (TR60b)

86 Posted by: Kensington
...........
Yes

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (f9c2L)

87

59 -

 

Unfortunately for Ace, he decided to jump on the poller-coaster months ago, so he doesn't seem to feel it's appropriate to jump off now.  Which means he's going to need plenty of Tums between now and this Tuesday.

 

Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (TOk1P)

88

There is one HUGE caveat that needs to be mentioned with Ohio and Virginia.  Neither state has party registration.  A huge margin for Romney with "independents" in those states may simply mean that people who are really Republicans and always vote Republican still identify themselves as "Independent" and declare themselves independent when they are polled.  Remember. the Republican brand has been severely tarnished in the last 8 years and a lot of voters may simply not want to call themselves Republicans anymore in these states, because everyone is technically an Independent.

 

So it is certainly possible for Romney to have a luge lead among "independents" in a poll but be slightly behind in the head-to-head.  And a D+5 sample might not be out of whack in these states either, not because Republican turnout is depressed, but because Republican identification is depressed. 

 

I think both Ohio and Virginia could still go either way in this race and nobody should be surprised if Obama wins both of them, or Romney does.

Posted by: rockmom at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (NYnoe)

89 Is the point that Ohio ISN'T actually a swing state anymore (which would explain an Obama victory) or that the polls giving Obama the edge cannot be accurate because Ohio IS a swing state?

Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 03:08 PM (znT2j)

 

The latter.    As ace said, in a swing state       the Democrat and Republican voting populations are relatively     similar in size,      such that no one side has an upper hand.     Poll results for the two parties will come out fairly even.    That means the indies are the tiebreaker.   Whoever wins the indies    generally      "wins" the poll,     because the indies weight the scale towards one candidate.

 

For Obama to LOSE the independent vote   by a sizable margin, often by 6+ points, but still somehow "win" the poll means that something     is screwy in the poll.   Otherwise it would mean that      Democrat voters are more prevalent in the state,    since you'd need more Dems to cancel out the independents.    This     would mean it's not a swing state; it's a blue state.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (4df7R)

90 We're gonna look pretty stupid if all of these polls are right.

See Taleb, The Black Swan, chapter entitled "The Scandal of Prediction." Political pundits and pollsters are notoriously not much better than random guys off the street in predicting elections. Forget them. Believe your own eyes. More Romney signs, more Romney energy, no one talking about "hope and change" at work, etc. Did you have that feeling in 2008? No? Then 2012 ain't like 2008, period.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 03:10 PM (qHCyt)

 

Taleb you bastard, I read your book !

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (nTgAI)

91 @61:  I figure it couldn't be any worse than that photo of HELLen Thomas, but I'll take your word for it...

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 10:15 AM (wtvvX)

92 The more I think about it, the more it bugs me: Where is the election result--not a poll--since 2008 where the Dems got more votes or saw a higher party ID than the previous cycle?

There's what, one or two special elections the Dems have won in that time? But, go back and look. As I recall, the ones they won were in heavy D districts but were still competitive for the R. (And there is the NY one, with the R endorsing the D, thanks Newt.)

Then look at 2010--why would those who voted R as the GOP made all CD campaigns an Obamacare referendum suddenly turn now and vote for Obamacare?

I hate to sound all "keep it together, we can still win" bluster like we were pumping in 2008 but this is some BS.

We are dying by these polls from sources we know lie to us about everything else.


Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (imtbm)

93

Was just watching FNC report on hurricane damage.  For the life of me I can't see the massive destruction that the news is reporting.

 

 

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (7qi+1)

94 "I need another poll besides Rasmussen showing Rom up in OH to calm my right-leaning nerves."

You won't get one.  You might try Xanax.

If all of us ripping these polls apart can't calm your nerves, then there is no hope for you.  You will just have to wait for Election night.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (USExO)

95 I think Independents are actually only <18% of likely voters. If DaveinFla can educate me on that I'd like to hear it.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (+paCV)

96 62 Man,it's hardreadinga post with that Helen Thomas picture staring at you. And, you know, the thing about Helen... she's got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll's eyes. And the sneer. Like that monkey sock puppet.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (GFM2b)

97 >>>All of which leads me to the point that many others have made. If Obama is stuck at 47%, he's not going to miraculously get 50%. The undecideds may not have decided they like Romney, and they may not have decided that they are going to vote at all, but they have definitely decided they don't like Obama. There is a problem with this line of reasoning. Obama is stuck at 47% among all potential voters. However, he can easily get to 50% among people who actually turn out to vote. Note these are different groups. If the 10% or so of undecideds don't vote, then the pool of potential voters shrinks substantially, and 47% of a larger group can become 50% of a smaller group. Undecides/unenthusiastic voters can just opt out of voting and let 47% stand as a majority. Obviously I hope that doesn't happen. But Romney's problem for months and months has been convincing those who are inclined against Obama to get out to the polls and cast a ballot.

Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 10:16 AM (LCRYB)

98

VOTE!!!

 

We have 6 days left.  Vote early if you can.  Get your family, friends and colleagues out to vote. 

If you know any Romney likely voter, ask them if they voted yet. 

 

If you are like me, in a state w/o early voting; make a list of people to remind that they need to VOTE.  And call them on Tuesday. 

 

November 6th is the only poll that matters!

 

Posted by: Could you see the SNL skit? at October 31, 2012 10:17 AM (zLp5I)

99 If this stuff is so easy to figure out, why are we the only ones talking about it? It seems Barone would chime in ,at least.

Posted by: Othered at October 31, 2012 10:17 AM (EuW9O)

100 Poll monkeys are just now learning to give proper weighting to intangible indicators, like the  Margin Of Cool.    

That's gotta be worth +5, at a bare minimum.

Posted by: Fritz at October 31, 2012 10:17 AM (/ZZCn)

101 We will all live Micheale Oblama's words that on " Novemeber 7, We Will All Party Hand"

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:07 PM (48wze)


You're gonna get the whole load!

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 31, 2012 10:17 AM (1Jaio)

102 Ace,

Shutup, you're blowing the illusion here.
 
I've having lots of fun buying up cheap NC to win shares on Intrade at only 80%.   True odds there have to be greater than 98% in Romney's favor.

This is for what amounts to a 25% return on investment in only seven days.

Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 10:17 AM (6Q9g2)

103 Close elections under these conditions break for the challenger. I'm feeling the wave for Romney.

I think the pachyderms even take the Senate.

Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 10:18 AM (mAm+G)

104 93 Was just watching FNC report on hurricane damage. For the life of me I can't see the massive destruction that the news is reporting. Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 03:16 PM (7qi+1) Google "Breezy Point" and NYC subways. I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 10:18 AM (+tqYo)

105 If only we had someone here at AoS that could decipher polls and tell us which is bullshit and which isn't, that could reweight the damn things so we could get a realistic idea of what's happening......


Oh well. Wishful thinking I guess.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 31, 2012 10:18 AM (da5Wo)

106 On election night, if all goes well, we will be breaking out the pudding and watching Rachel Maddow, having doused herself in gasoline on live TV, as she has the camera crew attempt to wrestle a commemorative Obama Zippo lighter away from her.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston Channeling Catholic Joe Biden at October 31, 2012 10:18 AM (KCvsd)

107 72 Had a Polish Wheelbarrow once Isn't that an old WWF move?

Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 10:18 AM (GFM2b)

108 If Axelhosen were a Muppet !

http://tinyurl.com/cg3tr8e

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 31, 2012 10:19 AM (XIsD/)

109 >>>Remember. the Republican brand has been severely tarnished in the last 8 years and a lot of voters may simply not want to call themselves Republicans anymore in these states, because everyone is technically an Independent. meh. It's my feeling that people feel more comfortable identifying with R's than they did in, say, 2009. Plus Democrats must also be suffering from this. While Republicans have moved (somewhat) to address their failings, Democrats are doubling down on failure.

Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 10:19 AM (LCRYB)

110 I meant <17%

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:19 AM (+paCV)

111 Close elections under these conditions break for the challenger. I'm feeling the wave for Romney.

I think the pachyderms even take the Senate.

Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (mAm+G)

 

It depends where the close election is. Although he was an incumbent, you should ask Norm Coleman how that whole close election thing works out.

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (t06LC)

112

You mean to tell me that the MFM would try something to sway voters? GTFO! No way.

Yep, I think it's bullshit too and a lame attempt to fire up the base. I really can't imagine that with less than a week to go that there are some that are still hmming and hawing. Romney has the momentum and basically after the first debate performance the preference cascade was on!

BTW I voted today!!!!!!!!! Damn it felt good!

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (X7wAM)

113 What about the MU Law poll showing Romney down? Same bullshit warning?

Posted by: Hillary's Middle Boob at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (kl5rr)

114 Ok that Helen Thomas picture really is starting to make me feel queasy.

I could deal with it for a while but it's like stink that just just keeps coming at you.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (KXm42)

115 380-150

http://tinyurl.com/c2yjlyl

It's over in primetime, before the polls close on the west coast. The western states are won mostly because GOPers will vote in victory and Dems will stay home in defeat.

Posted by: bigpale at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (TYGH7)

116 You can all just DO ME.

Posted by: Helen Thomas at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (znT2j)

117 Posted by: rockmom at October 31, 2012 03:15 PM (NYnoe) --After King Barky's mocking debate performance about the Navy, the Virginia ship has sailed for his sorry, smarmy ass.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 10:20 AM (jKE+Z)

118 Okay took a look at that Axelrod video-- Funny how Halperin's questions wiped the smile right off his face.... Wow--I'm wondering if I saw that correctly--gotta go stomach a second look... Boo!

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 10:21 AM (r2PLg)

119 So basically some polling outfits start with the assumption that the Republican Party is dead, and then Nate Silver gives those polls the 5 star weighting, while outfits like Rasmussen that assume party ID will be relatively even get a big fat discount in the weighting.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 31, 2012 10:21 AM (PNi9V)

120 Yep. A Romney win means Intrade has basically been printing money for conservatives for months. It's the only "poll" that one side can literally buy a lead in, doesn't mean they can buy the win, though.

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 10:21 AM (GeD0A)

121

 "A huge margin for Romney with "independents" in those states may simply mean that people who are really Republicans and always vote Republican still identify themselves as "Independent" and declare themselves independent when they are polled. Remember. the Republican brand has been severely tarnished in the last 8 years and a lot of voters may simply not want to call themselves Republicans anymore in these states, because everyone is technically an Independent."

 

Wait...wouldn't that still put   the ball in Romney's court?  There are also a lot of people who lean "Democrat"  but claim they are independent.  It depends  on who   has the best ground game plus  motivation to vote.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at October 31, 2012 10:21 AM (cAqkh)

122

If Axelhosen were a Muppet !

And who is his real life Super Grover?

Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 10:21 AM (3SvjA)

123 Plus Democrats must also be suffering from this. While Republicans have moved (somewhat) to address their failings, Democrats are doubling down on failure.

Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 03:19 PM (LCRYB)

Not to mention that aside from party ID there are more self proclaimed conservatives than liberals.

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:22 AM (X7wAM)

124 --After King Barky's mocking debate performance about the Navy, the Virginia ship has sailed for his sorry, smarmy ass.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 03:20 PM (jKE+Z)

 

And it didn't win him a lot of love in NH either.   Or Maine for that matter.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 10:22 AM (4df7R)

125 115 Posted by: bigpale at October 31, 2012 03:20 PM (TYGH7) The MFM will wait until the very last possible moment to call for Mitt, even if he's up huge in the east and midwest. I'd laugh myself silly if the mountain and western states were to bandwagon onto Mitt should the eastern states appear to be landsliding his way.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 10:22 AM (+tqYo)

126 Axelrod tends to look more to what CockMuncher  would  have  to  say.

Posted by: Roy at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (VndSC)

127

Google "Breezy Point" and NYC subways.

I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real.

That station is full of scuba divers!

Posted by: Toure at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (3SvjA)

128 Those polls with Obama in the lead by 5% in Ohio assume we get John McCain's votes and nothing more, and Obama gets all of his votes from 2008. It's that simple.

Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (wtnmC)

129 Polish wheelbarrow is an Eastern European derivative of the Danish Donkey, except you hold your partners ankles over your shoulders...

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (f95vc)

130 The numbers make no damn sense. They're driving me CRAZY! In poll after poll, GOPers are more enthusiastic, and Romney leads indies by healthy margins...yet these pollsters are supposedly finding Dem electorates similar to, or even EXCEEDING, the height of hopey changey fever? WTF?

In 2008, there wasn't any discrepancy...Obama led on the important issues, he led among indies, and his base was more enthusiastic. Therefore, he led in both national and swing state polling. Flip the same advantages to Romney this time around, though, and AT BEST he's nominally ahead nationally, and down in some of these swing states. Something just doesn't compute. Either Dems are a lot more fired up than we think (and see in early voting data), or there's a glitch in the matrix...something is up here.

Posted by: Sick of polls at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (gI9Bk)

131
@31: OK, I've heard of the Steamer, but the Bowtie is a new one to me.

Dare I google that at work???

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 03:07 PM (wtvvX)





AoSHQ Rule #1......

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (TIIx5)

132

Oh and one more thing...

 

I wanna see that Asian chick from "The Forty Year Old Virgin" remove

Axel-twats mustache with wax, then post it on youtube.

Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (epFGF)

133 If all of us ripping these polls apart can't calm your nerves, then there is no hope for you. You will just have to wait for Election night.

The 9% response rate makes me strongly discount all the polling.

But then I have nothing but fact-free nailbiting. So irritating.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 10:23 AM (MzQOZ)

134 Axelrod does a prolonged eye closing at the 45 second mark. What's that about?

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 10:24 AM (r2PLg)

135

Bush won in 2004 despite LOSING independents. If Romney wins independents, and gets a Bush-level turnout, Obama is fucked even if he gets his 2008 turnout level, which at this point seems very unlikely.

Frankly, if Romney simply gets a Bush-2004 turnout, it'll be hard for Obama to win even if Romney only breaks even on independents.

Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 03:09 PM (wtnmC)

 

 

 

If this is true, how could we ever lose with a fine middle of the road candidate like John McCain?  We should have swamped them in 2008!  After all, why wouldn't the base turn out for McCain? 

 

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 10:24 AM (zLp5I)

136 Go Women United. Nice new ad re: Benghazi: http://tinyurl.com/cyw2qzz WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 10:24 AM (LpQbZ)

137 OT

http://is.gd/Rlh86s

Pic of Sandy cloud in SW VA.

Posted by: sTevo at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (CQ3uZ)

138 What's that about? Posted by: tasker His drugs are wearing off.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (+paCV)

139 Axelrod does a prolonged eye closing at the 45 second mark.

What's that about?

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (r2PLg)

 

Downloading    acceptable responses from the Jarrett mothership orbiting around the moon.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (4df7R)

140 what'd I miss?

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (8sCoq)

141 The move originated in the middle ages before streets were paved and fishmongers were more diversified in their "offerings". It is rumored to be also known as the Byzantine Bullfighter.

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (f95vc)

142 If only we had someone here at AoS that could decipher polls and tell us which is bullshit and which isn't, that could reweight the damn things so we could get a realistic idea of what's happening......

Easier said than done.

Nobody knows what the D/R split will actually be.  Short of a time machine, nobody possibly could know.  Ditto with the percentage of white, black or latino voters.  What numbers do you weight to? 

Any figure you use to weight the polls would be little more than an educated guess.


Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 10:25 AM (SY2Kh)

143 The Polish Wheelbarrow is fun and all.  But inevitably some asshole will transition it  into a Prussian Gravyboat and then the cops have to get involved.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 10:26 AM (4I3Uo)

144

Coming up to 2008 it was easy for me to picture Mclame losing... This election it just does not compute that Obama could win. Maybe I am too insulated ?  My family just thinks Obama will win. I keep saying NO.

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 10:26 AM (nTgAI)

145

WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi

 

"They aren't REAL women."

 

-Feminazi Sluts, Incorporated

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 10:26 AM (4df7R)

146 Google "Breezy Point" and NYC subways. I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real. Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (+tqYo) ___________________ Yep. It looks bad. I think some people do not realize how crippling losing public transportation is for high density cities. Glad you are okay.

Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 10:26 AM (r2PLg)

147 Let's see here...

Cleveland Bowtie typed into Google

OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.

*Click*

That's just f*ckin' sick dude!

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 31, 2012 10:27 AM (3jDMY)

148 Posted by: Hollowpoint I know.

Posted by: John Titor at October 31, 2012 10:27 AM (+paCV)

149 David Axelrod. Helen Thomas. Rule 34. There are no exceptions. Keep Calm and Ace On!

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:27 AM (f95vc)

150

*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!

*Screams and Points* FOWARD!

Posted by: Lester Liberalmann at October 31, 2012 10:27 AM (/Aauo)

151

Axelrod does a prolonged eye closing at the 45 second mark. What's that about?
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (r2PLg)


 

 

That signals that he is out of thoughts and is fighting giving up..

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 10:28 AM (nTgAI)

152 Any figure you use to weight the polls would be little more than an educated guess.


Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 03:25 PM (SY2Kh)

 

Tuesday can't get here fast enough.

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:28 AM (X7wAM)

153 Is the point that Ohio ISN'T actually a swing state anymore (which would explain an Obama victory) or that the polls giving Obama the edge cannot be accurate because Ohio IS a swing state?
=========
That is the point.

The Dems will tell you that 2008 took most "swing" states and made them safe Dem states, that they shifted the map more blue.

But I ask you: Find me a single election result since 2008 that follows this, one race anywhere where the Dems increased their vote total or percentage over the previous cycle.

Didn't happen. Won't happen.

We got the ball, it's 4th and 5 on our 40, we're up by 10 and there's only 2:05 left, no time outs for either team. It's over: There's only 3 outcomes--we win by 10, 7 or 3. 80% we win by 10; 15% by 7 and 4.98% we win by 3; .01% lightning kills all our starters and .01% they tie.

Yeah, you're nervous--but your team isn't shit, they got this.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 10:28 AM (imtbm)

154 146 Google "Breezy Point" and NYC subways. I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real. Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (+tqYo) ___________________ Yep. It looks bad. I think some people do not realize how crippling losing public transportation is for high density cities. Glad you are okay. Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 03:26 PM (r2PLg) It was so bad, there was someone scuba diving in it.

Posted by: Douche' at October 31, 2012 10:28 AM (jKE+Z)

155 Not sure what I'm being asked, but here is my take on Independents.

Independents aren't right or left leaning people who don't want to admit to a party.  They are true non-partisans.  They will vote every election based on what they view as the correct course.  This does NOT mean they will ticket split.  They will vote straight Republican if they view the Republican "brand" to be right for the country during this cycle.  Next cycle, they will be up for grabs again.

Republicans and Democrats are partisans.  They will always vote for their party no matter what.  The key is party identification, not party registration.  My wife is a registered Democrat, but she is a Republican in party affiliation.  PurpleAv is the same way, he is currently registered Democrat.

Partisans can always be counted on to vote for their party's candidates, *IF* you can get them to the polls.  This is where voter enthusiasm comes into play.  If Republicans are enthusiastic, they will go to the polls, they will vote, and they will vote for all Republican candidates, all the way down to dogcatcher.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 10:28 AM (USExO)

156
ATTENTION COMRADES!

THE NARRATIVE WILL END IN SIX DAYS!

THE CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD WILL COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY AFTER!

PLEASE PROCEED TO THE LIFEBOATS!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (ovpNn)

157 @113 I'm not even sure the pollster believes what he printed. Basically he is covering himself by saying it will really depend on turnout motivation...

The fact that Obama, Ryan, Biden, and Romney are all in WI the next few days pretty much throws a +8 Obama result out the window.

Haven't been able to open the internals...curious to see how much of the respondents were Dane and Milwaukee County.

Posted by: H Badger at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (n/0Nw)

158

Forget shaving it. Obama already gives Axe the Dirty Sanchez!

(Might not wanna Google that at work either)

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (X7wAM)

159 Rush keeps saying that the poll-boys will get their act together and create more accurate polls as the election approaches--in order to shore up their 'credibility'


He's wrong:  These assholes don't care about credibility and only want to re-elect their boyfriend / messiah.  They're upping the D+ bias to 2008 turnout levels and beyond, in a desperate attempt to prevent 'Romney Wave !!' stories


The polls are getting worse / will get worse --- not more accurate

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (Dll6b)

160
A lot of dems are now calling themselves independents.  This happens when they aren't going to vote dem for president.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (PHb2k)

161 Do they show the Hungarian Hedgehog? No...not R.J.

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:29 AM (f95vc)

162 Look around. I mean really look around. What do you see?

My office is composed of Obamabots, write-ins for LuapNor, and idiots who say they're not voting because there's no difference between Obama and Romney.

My siblings are voting SCOAMF because The Gheys.  My parents are voting Romney because the economy, and Medicare.

My grandfather in Ohio is not competent to vote (end-of-life dementia...) but I expect someone has submitted a ballot for SCOAMF on his behalf.  Possibly my pinko aunt who lives in Canada but will be submitting her own SCOAMF ballot.

I've been liking Romney more and more since the end of the primaries, when I vacillated between SMOD and All Dead Inside, but I'm kind of gloomy.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 10:30 AM (ZKzrr)

163

Originally the polls thought they could disheart Republicans and Independs from voting, thus bringing victory to Obama.  That is not working, so Obama plans to bring forth his 9 million lawyers (scumbags but I repeat myself) after the election to claim voter fraud.  He will claim that his polls show that he was ahead and therefore, he really won, but Republicans stole his election.  A replay of Al Gore all over again. The play book never changes.

Posted by: burt at October 31, 2012 10:30 AM (8kEad)

164 >Cleveland Bowtie typed into Google

OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.

*Click*

That's just f*ckin' sick dude!




you probably won't like the Jersey Turnpike #5 either

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 10:30 AM (8sCoq)

165 What's really important? Has Ann Althouse decided who she is voting for? That imp has us on pins and needles with anticipation. Independents...pfffffffttt Althouse knows what's what.

Posted by: mare at October 31, 2012 10:30 AM (A98Xu)

166 Ok, so now I go onto RCP and they add in a National Journal poll with TFG up by 5? WTF, Im getting poll depression....

Posted by: DeusExMachina at October 31, 2012 10:30 AM (6RTwM)

167 Let us stipulate that Amish is right and I'm an innumerate idiot. So stipulated. Is there no industry practice or standard to footnote why it is that the weighting chosen was used? Or mayhap there is and I've simply missed it.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (VtjlW)

168 "Any figure you use to weight the polls would be little more than an educated guess."

Which is why I weight all the polls using 5 different turnout models.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (USExO)

169 "Independents aren't right or left leaning people who don't want to admit to a party"

what do you base this on. some people dissent to the right or left of their respective parties

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (60GaT)

170 Quick question: Why exactly does Cleveland have so many sex acts involving feces? It has to be a leader here.

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (t06LC)

171 The man in front grabs a weapon! The man behind him grabs a magazine! When the man in front is killed, the man behind grabs the Weapon!

Posted by: Enemy at the Gates at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (f95vc)

172 And, you know, the thing about Helen... she's got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll's eyes.   And the sneer. Like that monkey sock puppet.  Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 03:16 PM (GFM2b)

Yup, she has got that whole Arafat In Drag thing going on...though with them exhuming his body to determine true cause of death, which was widely speculated to be AIDS, the In Drag was probably true dat....

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 10:31 AM (kXoT0)

173 I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (+tqYo)

 

 

------------------------------------------------

 

 

I see  damage associated with building things (much of it underground) next to the ocean.  But massive damage?  No.  I don't see it.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 10:32 AM (7qi+1)

174 Not sure what I'm being asked, but here is my take on Independents. That's what I was asking but I'm also under the impression that true Independents are <17% of the likely voters. True? Thanks.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:32 AM (+paCV)

175

Go Women United.

Nice new ad re: Benghazi:

http://tinyurl.com/cyw2qzz

WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (LpQbZ)

 

 

Where is the ad playing?  If it does not make TV, it does not matter.  The Low Info Bubbas and Boo-Boos will not see it. 

 

By the way, I contacted them last night with that same question.  No response yet. 

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 10:32 AM (zLp5I)

176 Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 03:28 PM (USExO)


yes, and they are much less likely to vote than D or R partisans.  They have less information, care less, and tend to have less education and income.


the Myth of the highly intelligent, well-informed Independent, sitting above it all and making a dispassionate choice after weighing all the factors is...



A MYTH

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:32 AM (Dll6b)

177 HeatherRadish™ needs 7 beers.

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 31, 2012 10:33 AM (KjlbF)

178 Iowa threatens to arrest UN agents. Looks like Christie is gonna fuck up in NJ post Sandy.

Posted by: cajun carrot at October 31, 2012 10:33 AM (UZQM8)

179 My Son and I are both  registered Independents. Neither of us have ever voted for a Democrat...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 10:33 AM (9+ccr)

180 The Lake Erie Lobster is more "frontal" than "dorsal" IYKWIMAITYD!

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 10:33 AM (f95vc)

181 >What's really important? Has Ann Althouse decided who she is voting for?


$10 says she rolls for TFG a 2nd time- too urbane to vote for a Mormon

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 10:34 AM (8sCoq)

182 WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (LpQbZ) how bout them lady smarts.?!!...Bambi.....still think we are a bunch of vajayjays screaming for free birth control?

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 10:34 AM (JWLqy)

183

From here in NE Ohio, it sure looks as though Obama will pull it out. We've got non-stop ads, and O's seem to be more effective than R's. Add in the media's best efforts, and O looks like he'll get around 300 electoral college votes. It will be tough on the nation, but I've resigned myself to four more years of incompetence and class warfare.

Thankfully, even O's ineptitude won't be able to keep the country's economy down for eight years. Things will doubtless get better in both the short and long term.

Posted by: Pigilito at October 31, 2012 10:34 AM (yw6Yn)

184 There's only 3 outcomes--we win by 10, 7 or 3. 80% we win by 10; 15% by 7 and 4.98% we win by 3; .01% lightning kills all our starters and .01% they tie.

Expanding to PA/MI/WI etc. is the "We're not going to fucking kneel down" and the "fuck prevent defense" plan.

This does change your stats though. It adds "10% we win by OMG".  And raises the "lightning" to 1%. Or so. Plus or minus precisely 0.001%.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 10:34 AM (MzQOZ)

185 HeatherRadish™ needs 7 beers.

Sounds about right.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (ZKzrr)

186 170 Quick question: Why exactly does Cleveland have so many sex acts involving feces? It has to be a leader here. Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 03:31 PM (t06LC) --Have you *seen* Lake Erie? You've probably smelled it.

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (jKE+Z)

187 Let us stipulate that Amish is right and I'm an innumerate idiot. Did I stipulate that? So stipulated. Is there no industry practice or standard to footnote why it is that the weighting chosen was used? It's social science. "Out of my ass" is a perfectly good reason in social science.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (T0NGe)

188 From the anecdotal evidence of were I live in Maryland, Maryland and Delaware ain't as blue as they used to be. On a 25 mile trip from point A in Maryland to point B in Delaware on backroads and through small towns I counted signs. What I found was surprising: 28 Romney signs to only 2 for Obama. That tells me that the Dems in Delaware and Maryland are so depressed that they don't even make the effort to put out an Obama sign this year. In 2008 you couldn't got a 1000 feet without tripping over an Obama yard sign here. factor that into areas that are not "deep blue" and I just can not see any basis in reality for a D+8 poll.

Posted by: boballab at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (ebXTQ)

189

The "sex-position names" don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.


To wit,
The Sheboygan Bucket Drop. 

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (GeD0A)

190 164 >Cleveland Bowtie typed into Google

OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.

*Click*

That's just f*ckin' sick dude!


-----------------------------------------------------

you probably won't like the Jersey Turnpike #5 either

-----------------------------------------------------

Or the Hyannis Port Hearse.

Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 10:35 AM (mAm+G)

191 #92

I think the answer is just to look at the link (exerpted below).

"The partisan breakdown of the poll was 27% Rep, 35% Dem, 35% Independent.
"

At the very least, the numbers in this poll are bizarre.   In 2012 (ie, after four years of Obama and Tea Party) only 27% of respondents in Virginia self-identify as Republicans?  I get that there has been some demographic shift there, but that is extreme. . .why is Virginia such an outlier compared to neighboring states?    Everywhere else, there has been a tremendous INCREASE in the number of voters self-identifying as GOP.  Why not VA?

Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 10:36 AM (6Q9g2)

192 Minnesota Hot Pocket.


Try it, you'll hate it.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 10:36 AM (KXm42)

193 You 'weight' a poll based on your views regarding how your sample differs from actual potential voters.  It's an art as much as a science


Intuition--yeah, that's the ticket.  Do you trust the pollster is the Crux of the Matter / Mother of all Questions

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:36 AM (Dll6b)

194 Damnit! <17% Why does that keep getting blocked?

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:36 AM (+paCV)

195 < 17% < 17% !!!!!!!

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:36 AM (+paCV)

196 "the Myth of the highly intelligent, well-informed Independent, sitting above it all and making a dispassionate choice after weighing all the factors" Thisx1000 Nobody is stupider or has done more damage to America than independents. Anybody who wants a middle point between capitalism and socialism is a fucking illogical moron. Not enough bad things can be said about the large gaggle of constantly fellated retards who occupy the center. They are who have been in power the past fifty years and have fucked up everything.

Posted by: Scott Adams at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (v6YdM)

197 "social science" is to science as military music is to music

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (Dll6b)

198 I assumed the weighting was a prediction of turnout.  Shrug.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (KXm42)

199 This does change your stats though. Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (MzQOZ) How does this affect the Gerg sucking cock by choice ratio?

Posted by: cajun carrot at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (UZQM8)

200 OK! LESS THAN SEVENTEEN PERCENT!! Why is that code?

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (+paCV)

201 I had a move called the Chapaquiddick Flush. You can only do it once.

Posted by: Zombie Ted Kennedy at October 31, 2012 10:37 AM (jKE+Z)

202 honeybadger @robfit i sent a message to twitter on your behalf...they say it could take a couple of days to review.

Posted by: phoenixgirl, Happy Halloween ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at October 31, 2012 10:38 AM (Ho2rs)

203 He who wins the independents by 3+ points is going to win the elections. In this case it is certainly Romney who is winning independents by an average of 8 points even in the most liberal biased polls... Thinking otherwise is totally delusional...

Posted by: mnjg at October 31, 2012 10:38 AM (e3hs8)

204 7 I assumed the weighting was a prediction of turnout. Shrug.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 03:37 PM (KXm42)



Predicting turnout is a factor, but weighting is mostly about editing your raw data to make it more accurate or 'predictive'

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:38 AM (Dll6b)

205 That my friends was as big a tell as I have ever seen.  God, I would love to get Axelrod into a poker game.  He heard the question from Halperin and knows he's sitting on a busted flush.  The wailing by the MSM on next Tuesday will be epic as their exit polls and then the returns start showing a 320 EV night for Romney...

Posted by: McDirty at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (qB/1a)

206 the Myth of the highly intelligent, well-informed Independent, sitting above it all and making a dispassionate choice after weighing all the factors is...

Yep, the even bigger myth is the highly educated and clear thinking are always Democrats...I have to hear that daily from my co-worker who carpetbagged from California to get a job here in awful, backwards, terrible Oklahoma AFTER he did the following:

1.  Racked up $300,000 in school loans to become a lawyer at which he failed and had to close his practice
2. Lost his third of completely paid for house in Marin, CA doing day trading...my conservative estimate is at least $300,000 because the house was sold at peak prices.
3. Has had to declare bankruptcy and can't even get credit to buy a pack of chewing gum.

But, he is the smart and well educated person, not me, with my 3 degrees in Computer Science, a nice portfolio, etc., etc.

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (kXoT0)

207 To yw6YN, the troll: I visited NE Ohio, the Obama ads are terrible. I saw one on the billboards about 8 times before I realized it was an ANTI-Romney ad. Protip: If you have a billboard ad, make sure that your attacks aren't in the fine print.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (T0NGe)

208

Ace...another VA Poll released today by Roanoke College has Romney up 5 in VA....so please post that link as well...it is over  Redstate and Hotair...and in that poll Romney wins Indies by 26 and that is with a plus 4 Dem Sample....Look Q-Poll and the others are trying to show that somehow Mitt will steal the election.  They are shewing their VA poll by Plus 8, showing fewere Repubs than in 2008 and Obama still loses Indies and stays up 2....it is insulting to anyone with a sense of knowledge.

 

What I am sick of is PPP, Q-Poll or NBC Polls even being discussed here....WHY DO WE DO THAT?  to get upset? who cares....you know Ace...Gallup did a sample with over 10000 people and they found Reps up 1 over Dems for 2012...why is that not enough for you?

 

No instead here we go again with Plus 7, 8, 9 or like in PA with Frank Poll Plus Dem 13 and we get angry and upset.  WHY???  Who worries about this?  You have to vote so what...this crap is for consumption of the Stupid.  But for some reason Conservative Sites talk about BS Skewed Polls....The real reason you do is because you are SO AFRAID that Obama will win.  And quite frankly that is foolish.  There will be no PLUS 7, 8, 9 or 10 anywhere....but I look forward to Nov 6th...when all these Pundits and Bloggers GROW UP and start realizing the American people know exactly what they are doing.

 

No matter what number comes out...until the 6th everyone will just be uneasy..plain and simple.  And so what...you have one vote and that is it and you can take others and encourage them to go to the polls.  Do anyone feel a great deal of enthusiasm for OBAMA?????  NO

 

Even in the bias Q-Polls they found the GOP with double digit enthusiasm leads over Dems....they MUST SHOW OBAMA TIED or in the LEAD....remember this is CBS/NYT with Q-Poll..

 

Newsflash Ace NYT ran article to article on Sunday praising Obama and bashing Romney....now who thinks their polls would be good?  Q-Poll has NEVER had Romney up in any poll ever sense they teamed with CBS/NYT.  But here is another note...in those skewed polls....Obama fell in every one of them from the week before!

 

Romney will win...we have the people, enthusiasm and the money to get the job done!!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (HDcKc)

209  Rush keeps saying that the poll-boys will get their act together and create more accurate polls as the election approaches--in order to shore up their 'credibility'


He's wrong: These assholes don't care about credibility and only want to re-elect their boyfriend / messiah. They're upping the D+ bias to 2008 turnout levels and beyond, in a desperate attempt to prevent 'Romney Wave !!' stories


The polls are getting worse / will get worse --- not more accurate

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:29 PM (Dll6b)

 

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

 

I was saying a couple of weeks ago that so many of these polling firms bought into the SCOAMT lock, stock, and barrel.  They'll be going down with the ship, along with much of the MFM.  They are not going to admit they were wrong.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (7qi+1)

210 >From the anecdotal evidence of were I live in Maryland, Maryland and Delaware ain't as blue as they used to be. On a 25 mile trip from point A in Maryland to point B in Delaware on backroads and through small towns I counted signs. What I found was surprising:


I lived in MD 42 years. Marvin Mandel and Spiro Agnew ruined the state for Republicans forever. It doesn't matter if Eastern Shore or western MD vote red- they CANNOT outvote the DC and Baltimore suburbs, which are filled with either 1)people on the public dole, or 2) government employees

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (8sCoq)

211 None of you can handle a Keokuk Kazoo.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 10:39 AM (ZKzrr)

212 Some clown on ABC radio is claiming Obama and Kaine are ok in VA. Lol

Posted by: Jean at October 31, 2012 10:40 AM (v9wwx)

213 Dave in Fla: What percentage of likely voters are true Independents? That's all I want to know. Thank you.

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:40 AM (+paCV)

214

"The "sex-position names"don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.
To wit, The Sheboygan Bucket Drop.

 

Yeah, you go right on believing all that stuff is made-up.  Don't come crying to me when you're stuck on the business end of  The Boise Butterchurn.

 

You've been warned.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 10:40 AM (4I3Uo)

215 Let us stipulate that Amish is right and I'm an innumerate idiot. Did I stipulate that? Let's Venn this shall we? Since you posit that the Venn diagrams of those who attended law school and those who are innumerate idiots constitute one perfectly aligned circle and since I fall within the ambit of those who attended law school, by the terms of your own postulate, I am an innumerate idiot. So, yes, you did. Frequently.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 10:41 AM (VtjlW)

216 nude thread

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 10:41 AM (8sCoq)

217

I see damage associated with building things (much of it underground) next to the ocean. But massive damage? No. I don't see it.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 03:32 PM (7qi+1)

 

the buildings in Manhattan go underground for multiple levels.  If the electrical and mechanical rooms in the sub levels of these buildings flooded, that is bad, very bad. 

 

and Con-Ed, AT and T, etc., all have tunnels and u/g equipment rooms in Manhattan.  If they flooded....

 

They cannot get power back if they need to dry out, clean and retest all the equipment.  Much of it will need replacement. 

Equipment like big power circuit breakers contain paperboard and wood products.  If they get soaked by sea water, the internal parts will need to be replaced and the breaker completely rebuilt.  That is a 3-4 day job on each breaker.  Even little panel board breakers, indicating lights, relays, etc., will all need to be cleaned, tested and probably replaced. 

 

Same thing for the subway, when they finally get the water out. 

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 10:41 AM (zLp5I)

218 Anybody who wants a middle point between capitalism and socialism is a fucking illogical moron.

Isn't the "third way" Fascism?  Looks like capitalism, but the government controls it?

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 10:41 AM (ZKzrr)

219 "From here in NE Ohio, it sure looks as though Obama will pull it out. We've got non-stop ads, and O's seem to be more effective than R's.Add in the media's best efforts, and O looks like he'll get around 300 electoral college votes.It will be tough on the nation, but I've resigned myself to four more years of incompetence and class warfare.
Thankfully, even O's ineptitudewon't be able to keep the country's economy down for eight years.Things will doubtless get better in both the short and long term.

Posted by: Pigilito at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (yw6Yn) "

...............................Allahpundit, is that you?

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:42 AM (X7wAM)

220 Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (7qi+1)


Yes, they know that only the partisans will remember in 2016 how bad many polls were in 2012


They've sounded "general quarters" and ain't gonna let up until after the election

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 10:42 AM (Dll6b)

221 #120
Yep. A Romney win means Intrade has basically been printing money for conservatives for months.
=====

Well, except for right before the first debate (where Romney was in the gutter under 25% then rebounded up to nearly 40%) Romney has been basically flat for months.

If you bought Romney to win, three months ago, you're basically flat now (ask me how I know).

Meanwhile, even if you liked the State races, most of them didn't have much liquidity until recently.

But in general, yeah.  I think there are at least a few races (including NC, which I mentioned above) where there is a pretty significant divergence between the line odds and the true odds.  You can buy Romney to win VA for just about 50% right now, and double your money in a week assuming he does it.

I don't know what his true odds are in VA, but Obama took it by 6.3 points in 2008, and Bush won it by over 8 in 2004.   I can't state the true odds, but I have to think Romney has a better than 50-50 shot at taking it this time around.

Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 10:43 AM (6Q9g2)

222 DC and Baltimore suburbs, which are filled with either 1)people on the public dole, or 2) government employees

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (8sCoq) ...................................A bit redundant, don't you think?

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:44 AM (X7wAM)

223 "We are dying by these polls from sources we know lie to us about everything else." That's it exactly. If they spout a series of nonsense talking points it's obvious that they're nonsense. But when they put a veneer of science over those same flawed presumptions we get all nervous. Which, actually, is a good thing. Doubt makes us try harder and fight longer. Better a nervous stomach than the left's deluded stupor.

Posted by: GalosGann at October 31, 2012 10:44 AM (T3KlW)

224 214
"The "sex-position names"don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.
To wit, The Sheboygan Bucket Drop.

Yeah, you go right on believing all that stuff is made-up. Don't come crying to me when you're stuck on the business end of The Boise Butterchurn.


-------------------------------------------------

Or the Skaneasteles Apple Picker.

Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 10:45 AM (mAm+G)

225 Let's Venn this shall we? Since you posit that the Venn diagrams of those who attended law school and those who are innumerate idiots constitute one perfectly aligned circle You know what a Venn diagram is? You know what a circle is? How the hell did they let you into law school? Didn't they give you the "You'll make us look bad" speech?

Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 10:45 AM (T0NGe)

226 None of you can handle a Keokuk Kazoo.

The male urethra wasn't made to withstand 50PSI pressure, so, no.


Posted by: Blanco Basura at October 31, 2012 10:45 AM (xKC/c)

227 that National Journal poll apparently has a Dem +8 sample, with less whites as a % of the total than 2008.

Posted by: tofer732 at October 31, 2012 10:46 AM (2zM0P)

228 I see damage associated with building things (much of it underground) next to the ocean. But massive damage? No. I don't see it.

As far as NJ, they couldn't get choppers in the air at first -- because the weather has sucked and still sucks, but some sites have pics. The Weather Channel website has a photo montage. Torn up roads, gas lines exposed and leaking, fires still burning, electric lines down, homes with lower levels filled with water and debris. Not as many homes knocked off their foundations as I expected, but I think a good percentage will be knock-downs. Most towns are still off-limits to residents.

A lot of expensive 'infrastructure' work in addition to insured damage. My guess is a helluva lot more then HC Andrew in damage.

Posted by: Public Service Announcement at October 31, 2012 10:47 AM (feFL6)

229 You know what a Venn diagram is? That's logic, not math. You know what a circle is? Of course I do, that's the shape donuts are in.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 10:48 AM (VtjlW)

230 David Axwlrod, will now and forever be known as David "Dirty Sanchez" Axelrod.

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:48 AM (X7wAM)

231 "Euler"? "Euler"?

Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 10:48 AM (+paCV)

232 Christie drops trou and "leans foward" as the JEF approaches him prior to their intimate copter ride.

Posted by: Liquor is quicker at October 31, 2012 10:48 AM (nDu7+)

233 I did not posit that law schools either admit or turn out idiots.  I was giving an anecdote about one failed lawyer who has made huge financials mistakes to which he freely admits who likes to lecture people on the acumen and education of Democrats.  The guy is fairly smart, but, he is also so damned dumb he should have a keeper.  Plus that he is one of those totally whipped metrosexual wimps who let's his wife run things.  His phone calls to her are barfworthy.

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 10:49 AM (kXoT0)

234 The male urethra wasn't made to withstand 50PSI pressure, so, no.


Posted by: Blanco Basura at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (xKC/c) .........O.K. If I kept it at around, well, lets' say.....40PSI? Would I be o.k. then? Not, that I would ever, ahem, try anything so sick, Just interested in science and stuff.

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 31, 2012 10:50 AM (X7wAM)

235 Of course I do, that's the shape donuts are in.

*sniffle*

Posted by: Long Johns at October 31, 2012 10:51 AM (ZKzrr)

236

"None of you can handle a Keokuk Kazoo.

The male urethra wasn't made to withstand 50PSI pressure, so, no."

 

If you're worried about a catastrophic blowout in that area, you can switch it around to a Vidalia Vuvuzela.  Sure, you have to be a little more flexible, but  you won't need emergency surgery. 

 

Just make sure you brush your tongue afterwards.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 10:53 AM (4I3Uo)

237 What about a Scranton Biden Deluxe?

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 10:54 AM (kXoT0)

238 OooooOOOooooh....Ambit.

Lookit Fancyword Francine.


mmmmmmmmm....donut.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 10:54 AM (KXm42)

239 237 What about a Scranton Biden Deluxe?

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (kXoT0) ..........................The hole load!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 31, 2012 10:55 AM (X7wAM)

240 Someone had to mention the vuvuzuela. 

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.

Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 10:56 AM (KXm42)

241 241 Someone had to mention the vuvuzuela. .................Doesn't Sean Penn go there all the time to blow Chavez?

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 10:57 AM (X7wAM)

242

"What about a Scranton Biden Deluxe?"

 

With or without the Upper Decker option?

 

It matters.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 10:57 AM (4I3Uo)

243 Its the "secret sauce"...which is just Thousand Island dressing, and sleight of hand...but mostly sleight of hand.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 31, 2012 10:57 AM (L9WNK)

244

 

the old rule of thumb is if you put Tijuana in front of anything  it turns dirty

Tijuana tater tots

 

Posted by: kj at October 31, 2012 10:58 AM (AW9md)

245

"Doesn't Sean Penn go there all the time to blow Chavez? "

 

Why do you think I mentioned the importance of brushing your tongue afterwards?

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 10:58 AM (4I3Uo)

246 I did not posit that law schools either admit or turn out idiots. Amish does. It's a long, long running bit. Hell, it may predate my stompy boots.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 10:59 AM (VtjlW)

247 "They cannot get power back if they need to dry out, clean and retest all the equipment." I realize that this is a very rare event, but I'm shocked that buildings in NYC with critical underground infrastructure aren't equipped with generators and pumps. The subway is a different problem.

Posted by: GalosGann at October 31, 2012 11:00 AM (T3KlW)

248 #239
That's disturbing.

For what its worth, Scott Walker won his recall in WI just a few months ago at 53-46.   Obviously different issues were at play then, but with a seven point pro-Republican spread in June, I don't see why its implausible for Romney to win in WI.

Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 11:02 AM (6Q9g2)

249 I saw a youngish, maybe 35 year old woman in NJ or NY (can't remember now) being interviewed yesterday. She was bellyaching about not having a flashlight or much food and lamenting her plight and that Govt. wasn't doing more. Fuck lady, the warnings and evac suggestions weren't enough? Jeebus we've got so many leeches in ourt society!

Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (X7wAM)

250 Has anyone thought that maybe Ohio is not a swing state anymore? Between the Black Ghetto trash, Trailer park White Trash and the Union thugs, maybe Ohio is a Blue State?

Just something to think about.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 11:07 AM (+IAze)

251 I cant wait for the teeth gnashing libtards wailing once Romney wins, and wins big. Start getting your Hilter finds out Obama lost the election videos cued up now.

Posted by: thegreatsatan at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (q9DYD)

252 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (ShFIH)

253 potent analysis from concern troll Hector.

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (60GaT)

254 @ 239 TJB

The media are undersapmling Republicans or maybe Americans love Marxism. It's one or the other.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (CX71c)

255 My quick, lunchtime contribution to David Axelrod's physical transformation.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/305/axef.jpg

Posted by: Terez at October 31, 2012 11:10 AM (Uwi+4)

256 yeah working-class Midwestern Democrats love them some Marxism. especially the ones that voted for Reagan.

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 11:11 AM (60GaT)

257 RMS Mccain had a good article on why the MSM must keep claiming that Virginia is a battleground. It all comes down to election night. If it's a blowout and the networks calls it early for Virginia, it's all over in the mid-west and west-coast true battlegrounds. http://theothermccain.com/2012/10/25/is-virginia-still-a-battleground/

Posted by: Kramer at October 31, 2012 11:11 AM (kiwMG)

258 @254 JDP

Sorry I don't drink kool aid like you. I have been saying for weeks that Romney was better off spending money on PA than Ohio. Obama has bought out Ohio with auto bailouts, phones and welfare. PA on the other hand has higher unemployment and Obama is trying stop coal production and fracking. I feel Ohio has gone blue like the North East.

Sorry I don't drink kool aid like you.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (TVbdM)

259 Sorry.   My mistake.  The proper link.

http://tinyurl.com/csn2bdk



Posted by: Terez at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (Uwi+4)

260 koolaid

Posted by: JDP at October 31, 2012 11:13 AM (60GaT)

261 @ 258 Kramer

Romney has Virginia. It's Ohio that I feel that maybe out of reach. Hopefully the last minute blitz in PA can push him over the edge there and compensate for Ohio.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (CX71c)

262 257 JDP

That was 30 years ago. These White trash Democrats are Marxists now. It's 2012 not 1980.

Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (+IAze)

263 Dammit, I keep posting a Scott Adams!

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at October 31, 2012 11:27 AM (PVNda)

264 259 Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (TVbdM)

Ohio absentee ballots requests the democrats in 2012 are down by 125,000 ballots compared to 2008 and the Republicans in 2012 are up by 10,000 ballots over 2008. In other word the net lose for democrats in absentee ballots alone is 135,000Â… Obama won Ohio in 2008 by only 260,000 and he is already losing 135,000 among absentee votes alone and assuming that all democrats are voting him in this category.

Obama is certain to lose OhioÂ…

Posted by: mnjg at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (e3hs8)

265 O has lost the WWC, see trende & jay cost on that, the WWC blue collar dems who 'rolled the dice' in 08 are voting Romney. This is the swing back from the hard left swing Obama took us on w pelosi after his mandate in 08. Americans want balance and good management from someone putting their interest first. The pie splitting in the sky don Quixote windmills and war on coal do not play w struggling middle class of any party. I'm gonna bounce off the walls like ricochet rabbit when the landslide starts coming in. Got nov 7th to do a real Reset for a positive vision of the future for my kids, hub and I, all of us. Go long pudding futures.

Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2012 12:00 PM (SqgBJ)

266 One worry I have is the results of the 2010 governor's race in Ohio. John Kasich won independents by 16 points, but only edged out Ted Strickland by 2 points, despite Republicans equaling Democrats in turnout at 36%. The reason Strickland got so close was because he poached more Republican votes (11%) than Kasich got Democrat votes (8%). So we need to look not only at the partisan splits of the Ohio polls but also the amount of party cross-overs.

Posted by: Anonymous Conservative at October 31, 2012 12:25 PM (DcYjY)

267

Could someone please take down that picture of Thomas? It is reallllllly creeping me out. Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 03:08 PM (+paCV)

 

Happy Halloween!

Posted by: Helen Thomas at October 31, 2012 12:55 PM (7OHl8)

268 If Axelrod shaves his mustache then how can we tell which end is his asshole.

Posted by: HeftyJo at October 31, 2012 12:58 PM (EN3UW)

269 anyone have thoughts on NH?  intrade has republican win at 37.5%  i think the state will go red

Posted by: matt foley at October 31, 2012 01:01 PM (2WDMC)

270 intrade has WI at 29% republican candidate

Posted by: matt foley at October 31, 2012 01:03 PM (2WDMC)

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