May 31, 2012

For Team Obama, Now Is Not The Time To Panic.
Tomorrow Is the Time To Panic.

— Ace

Another jobs figure is being released. Analysts guess it will be in the 133,000 to 150,000 jobs gained range, which, um, one dummy calls some kind of major improvement over last month's 115,000.

These numbers are below the replacement rate, folks. More people enter the work force (or used to, anyway) in a month than this.

There may be some expectations-gaming here, as Ed highlights one analyst saying... brace for something horrid, like 54,000.

And it gets worse.

“Nonfarm payroll has been decelerating since the beginning of 2012,” William told CNBC.com. “The probability of an acceleration of that down move is high over the next two quarters.”

The data lost positive momentum after failing to hold above the 2011 high of 251,000, and has also remained beneath a multiyear ceiling of around 340,000. During January 2012 “the loss of upside momentum triggered a DeMark exhaustion signal,” he said.

An exhaustion signal usually indicates a reversal in the trend. The DeMark Indicators are a collection of sophisticated market-timing tools created by Tom DeMark over the course of nearly 40 years in the financial industry.

“The key level that everyone in the market should be focusing on [for nonfarm payrolls] is 54,000,” William added. “I think that over the multimonth period the probability favors that we test this area and maybe move into negative territory if it is confirmed.”

The funny thing is that the media is currently saying that analysts expect 133,000 or 150,000 jobs. But if the numbers fall short of that, they'll suddenly start talking about "exceeding the 54,000 jobs predicted some."

The next two months are really Obama's last gasp. If this guy is anywhere near right, and we're entering a very very low period (after the previous period merely being very low), the election is all but over.

If it goes negative -- forget it. Forget it. Forget it.

It's done.

@rdbrewer4 linked this Barrone piece in the sidebar, asking, straight-up, if the Obama campaign guys are "kidding themselves" if they think their small-ball, client-service, silly-negative-hit campaign is going to win it for them, given that the economy is in the crapper and has been all of Obama's term.

This is what I never understood about all this "Obama is the favorite" chatter. I do not rule out the chance that Obama could win. People have won elections under bad economic conditions (FDR was reelected three times, while presiding over a depression many feel he extended and deepened).

But it's astonishing to me that anyone could imagine that someone could be favored under such circumstances -- or, even more preposterously, that Obama had the election virtually locked-up.

What could this possibly be based upon? The strong emotional bond the liberal media and DC have with Obama? Do they really imagine that the millions of lightly-partisan, results-oriented, apolitical voters out there love Obama just for being Obama, as they do?

Wouldn't it be more likely that such voters are more interested in actual facts on the ground, tangible improvements in their lives, than partisan "triumphs" like same-sex marriage and all the myriad Historical Firsts Obama lays claim to?

Do they really believe people give a shit about this?

Let me put it another way: Does the political class and media class really believe the public is more interested in the personal advancement of Barack Obama than their own advancement, as they do?

Because I don't believe that. I don't believe you need to hate Obama to agree with the proposition: I care greatly, greatly more about my own fortunes under Obama's governance than I do about Obama's personal political victories. In fact, I rather care nothing about that last one at all, except to the extent it's reflected in the former.

Meanwhile, first quarter GDP, initially estimated at a weak-pulsed 2.2%, has been revised down (shocker!) to a bleeding-out 1.9%.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment indicator just fell the most since 2008, and the Dow itself dropped 161 points yesterday, on concerns about Europe and the deteriorating economy.

We are now five short months before the election. The economy has been in depression (yes, depression) since Obama took office. He can make no credible case he's managed to improve it -- a Democratic pollster, Sidney Greenberg (if I recall his name correctly) says that focus-groups react hostilely to claims that the economy is recovering and doing well.

There are no signals it will improve, and now there are growing signals it will deteriorate still further.

Who exactly thought Obama would be favored, or even a near-lock, to win this election, and can the people who thought so now turn in their Prognostication Licenses now?

Rasmussen: Romney Leads Obama in Independents By Double-Digits. The overall lead is margin of error -- 46-44.

The lead with independents is 47 to 35, though.

To some extent I don't even care about polls. Polls, after all, are shaped by facts on the ground. People make choices based upon facts on the ground, which are then reflected in polls.

If you know the facts on the ground, you know the polls -- or you know, rather, what the polls will ultimately show.

Posted by: Ace at 11:19 AM | Comments (220)
Post contains 888 words, total size 6 kb.

1 But we have hope and change, right? That fills the tummy.

Posted by: blaster at May 31, 2012 11:21 AM (7vSU0)

2 Wiemar? Because we LIKE you!

Posted by: nickless at May 31, 2012 11:22 AM (MMC8r)

3 Not guilty on count 3. Hung on all others.

Posted by: Y-not at May 31, 2012 11:23 AM (5H6zj)

4 ...and the truth shall set you free.

Posted by: Brother Cavil, New Caprica City DMV at May 31, 2012 11:23 AM (GBXon)

5 He's circling the bowl.

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:23 AM (SMBSi)

6 Edwards NOT guilty on count three. Jury hung on remaining counts. Per lots of Twitter tweeps.

Posted by: Retread at May 31, 2012 11:23 AM (joSBv)

7
Need moar gay news cycles!


Posted by: Soothsayer Axelrod at May 31, 2012 11:24 AM (9Q7Nu)

8 Obama is the historic leader among U.S. presidents in dog consumption.

Posted by: Cicero at May 31, 2012 11:24 AM (QKKT0)

9
What's the name of this movie again?

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at May 31, 2012 11:24 AM (xDqit)

10

Remember all the pundits who were saying back in February when the economy looked like it might pick up that peoples perception of the economy in May and June form their vote in the fall?

 

You don't hear that too much anymore do you. Nate Silver did an entire story on it complete with a model on how the election would turn out.

Posted by: robtr at May 31, 2012 11:25 AM (MtwBb)

11 5 garrett he's a toilet licker?

Posted by: phoenixgirl at work at May 31, 2012 11:25 AM (4/NTV)

12

Anddd.... if the Real GDP growth number, does not exceed the REAL Inflation number? (not the one they spout, but the one that includes food and fuel?)...

 

Especialy if you take out DEFICIT spending by the Government, which is an artificial GDP prop? (ie, its debt, not growth)...

 

DOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM!!!!

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 31, 2012 11:25 AM (lZBBB)

13 Later today I'll be channeling some words of gratitude from a dead baby.

Posted by: John Edwards at May 31, 2012 11:25 AM (QKKT0)

14 I'm just holding my breath until after we see the Obama 2012 Vergeltungswaffen: The Otherness of Mitt Romney's Bizarre Racist Sexist Spaceman Religion.

Posted by: General Zod at May 31, 2012 11:25 AM (2+bRt)

15 @ 8 I'm surprised Fauxcahontas didn't try to claim the title.

Posted by: Retread at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (joSBv)

16
What's the name of this movie again?

Dumb and Dumber and Dumberer

Posted by: Axelrod, Jarrett, and Obama at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (9Q7Nu)

17 Obama's Unreality speech show that's on every other day isn't good enough for the unemployed to stay home and watch. SO no it really is the economy stupid.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (tf9Ne)

18 Under a new Ras poll  --for the first time in 5 1/2 years people trust Republicans more than Donks on the economy.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (pLTLS)

19 I wonder how much longer i'm going to be subjected to Obama's stupid "All this bad shit happened before I was president" ad.

Posted by: buzzion at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (GULKT)

20

(shocker!)

 

...careful.  That can kill a guy.

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (SMBSi)

21 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at May 31, 2012 11:26 AM (Xb3hu)

22 Mistrial in Edwards case.


Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (UOM48)

23 ParisParamus in with Greg sock in 5...4...3...2...

Posted by: nickless at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (MMC8r)

24 -- a Democratic pollster, Sidney Greenberg (if I recall his name correctly) says that focus-groups react hostilely to claims that the economy is recovering and doing well.

That would kill Newsweek and TIME's readership numbers if such a thing were mathematically possible.

Posted by: eleven at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (KXm42)

25

The FDR comparisons are apt, but there are some distinct differences:  First, FDR was actually a likable guy, or at least his public persona was viewed favorably, and perhaps more importantly, his WIFE was viewed very favorably.  She was possibly FDR's best asset, whereas these people really don't seem to understand the Michael Obama isn't well liked by anyone outside their own circles. 

 

Most important of all though, is the point you made.  FDR was NOT making anything better, but people had no way of knowing that, outside their own small circle.  So it was possible to still be hurting, but assume everyone else was doing well, because they kept trying to tell people things were getting better, even though they weren't.  These people can't do that anymore.  Believe it or not, we're a much better informed public these days. 

Posted by: BurtTC at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (TOk1P)

26 Umm, aren't college kids entering the market in May.  So real permanent employment is still probably less than that.

There's just no way to spin that the SCOAMF isn't a SCOAMF.


Posted by: dogfish at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (N2yhW)

27 how bout this link instead of that gobblygook

Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (pLTLS)

28 Actually,the Fox News crawl was touting GDP growth of better than last year(woohoo!better than 1.7%!!).

Posted by: steevy at May 31, 2012 11:27 AM (Xb3hu)

29

he's a toilet licker?

 

He's a turd.

The only question left is how big of a skidmark he's going to leave on the Republic.

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:28 AM (SMBSi)

30 Barry's going down like it was a Bathhouse Saturday Night.

Posted by: toby928 at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (NG097)

31 You don't understand ace,HE'S BLACK.He's handsome,he's so fucking smart.Bush left everything in such bad shape.He has done so much,he just needs another term.

Posted by: steevy at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (Xb3hu)

32
Obama's entire campaign is anti-business anti-success. Will that work?

It would work in the EU, but here?

Posted by: soothsayer at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (9Q7Nu)

33 Obama will cut unemployment extensions to make the unemploymet rate decrease before the election

Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (lkdo/)

34 Under a new Ras poll --for the first time in 5 1/2 years people trust Republicans more than Donks on the economy.

I hate people.

Posted by: eleven at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (KXm42)

35 The next two months are really Obama's last gasp. If this guy is anywhere near right, and we're entering a very very low period (after the previous period merely being very low), the election is all but over.

Crap. I may have to evolve some more on gay marriage.

Posted by: Barky O'Genius at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (QKKT0)

36

There are no signals it will improve, and now there are growing signals it will deteriorate still further.

 

Who made you the authority on reading smoke signals?

Posted by: Elizabeth Warren at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (SMBSi)

37 Ace:  Who exactly thought Obama would be favored, or even a near-lock, to win this election, and can the people who thought so now turn in their Prognostication Licenses now?
*
*
I predict Obama will win!

Of course, I also predicted Nixon would beat Kennedy in 1960 and World War III would start in 1958, so there's that.

Posted by: Zombie Jeane Dixon at May 31, 2012 11:29 AM (exvgC)

38 Not guilty on one charge and a mistrial on all the others.

Fukking clown parade.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (piMMO)

39 I hate the fookin' MFM propping up this POS.  May they weep hard come November.

Posted by: eureka! at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (xCpfo)

40 Romney makes his dog wear funny underwear while strapped to the car driving to Bain Capital to fire innocent mothers and fathers of small children!

Posted by: Make Believe Media at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (Hx5uv)

41 ...and FDR looked like he was having fun when he smiled, unlike the smug cockholster mug we get from the current occupant.

Posted by: General Zod at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (2+bRt)

42 Put all your money in Greek Bonds! They're practically GIVING them away!

Posted by: nickless at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (MMC8r)

43

I hate people.

 

They're the worst.

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:30 AM (SMBSi)

44 That is good for people to understood the replacement rate. That's the only reason why SCOAMF can lie and claim any job creation at all. Even if the economy has an 11% unemployment rate (which it does, don't you know), there are still going to be new people hired to do things, even if that's stuff like closing down factories. If Romney can hit our stupid president on Solyndra, then he should hit our stupidly stupid president on this too.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at May 31, 2012 11:31 AM (QxSug)

45 FLASH: The chocolate ration will be increased again this month.

Posted by: MFM at May 31, 2012 11:31 AM (NG097)

46 Another Dem scumbag walks. 

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 31, 2012 11:31 AM (UOM48)

47 Fukking clown parade. Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 04:30 PM (piMMO) I have a feeling if they ever let me on a Jury ( I doubt it ) I would be arrested for assaulting my fellow jurors

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 11:31 AM (05RcU)

48
Who made you the authority on reading smoke signals?

Posted by: Elizabeth Warren at May 31, 2012 04:29 PM (SMBSi)


I can smoke a signal with the best of them.

Posted by: Barack Obama at May 31, 2012 11:31 AM (Hx5uv)

49 Another Dem scumbag walks. Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 31, 2012 04:31 PM (UOM4 Don't worry that will be on his tombstone: Here Lies A Democratic Scumbag

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 11:32 AM (05RcU)

50

On the jobs numbers? we ADD about 100K LEGAL immigrants a month to the US... 80% of whom are working age....

 

And we add about 2.8 Million a year due to birth...

 

Soooo unless we add about 300K jobs a month? we're loosing ground...

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 31, 2012 11:32 AM (lZBBB)

51 But let's stick with the real story here, one of Mitt's former gardeners may have been undocumented. We'll talk about jobs, a'hem, later.

Posted by: Soledad O'Brien at May 31, 2012 11:32 AM (VuZKK)

52

Mistrial in Edwards case.

**

Ya see what good hair, a smile and a wink will do for ya? Did I mention I'm a millionaire?

Posted by: John Edwards at May 31, 2012 11:32 AM (eavT+)

53 MATH IS RAAAAACIST

Posted by: KaY InSaNe at May 31, 2012 11:33 AM (yU1Dt)

54 A liberal woman just said to me that "women's jobs" garner a lower wage such as house keeping and child care. These "women's jobs" are valued as being worth less money for time. She said that she is for Obama because he values women. Not worth arguing

Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 11:33 AM (lkdo/)

55 I react with hostility to Obama in general, but then I'm a white male patriarchal bitter clinging racist yadda yadda.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 31, 2012 11:34 AM (RD7QR)

56

49 -

 

Breaking news: bags of scum  suing for libel! 

Posted by: BurtTC at May 31, 2012 11:34 AM (TOk1P)

57 Obama's entire campaign is anti-business anti-success. Will that work?

It seems to be working now, at least according to this Drudge headline

"America’s millionaire population declined last year for the first time since the financial crisis, according to a new report. The population of U.S. millionaire households (households with investible assets of $1 million or more) fell to 5,134,000 from 5,263,000 in 2011."

Posted by: WalrusRex at May 31, 2012 11:35 AM (Hx5uv)

58 The dems have a propaganda machine Goebbels could only dream of in the MSM.  Yes, they still think they can fool 51% of the people for another six months.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at May 31, 2012 11:35 AM (KwMW2)

59 We are letting our last 5 employees go tomorrow.  I posted here a month or two ago that things were slowing down.  It is worse now than at any time during the officially recognized recession for all of the small business guys I talk to.  I wondered when or if what I was seeing would show up in the numbers. 

If the lag is what I think it is then things will get much worse.  And Obama is toast if the stock market is in the tank when the election comes around.  That is the only thing that made people feel better.  I bet we see the fed pour in the money before the end of summer to try to create a bubble to get over the electoral hump.

Posted by: Barky the Narcissiphant at May 31, 2012 11:35 AM (c8WV/)

60 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (8y9MW)

61

What could Mitt do after the election to piss off all the environmentalists, make the economy instantly boom and insure Republicans are elected in every office for 100 years?

Monetize the oil reserves on federal land.  Set up a quasi-governmental company that “buys” a 100% stake (70 Trillion) in the untapped recoverable oil on federal lands.  This company receives the money from the Treasury using the asset of the oil as security.  The company pays the 100 trillion back to the government for the asset.  The company then sets out to sell as much of the oil as it can while maintaining a reasonable price for the commodity.  The company would pay the Treasury back with proceeds from oil leases and royalties at zero interest over the next few hundred years.

The government in turn pays off the national debt, all individual mortgages, consumer debt (credit cards, installment loans) and student loans.  In addition, it offers social security recipients the discounted cash value of their social security or lets them stay on the present system that is now fully funded.  

Doing this would place the U.S. in a strong position while the rest of the world is totally fucked.  Nice position to be in.

Posted by: jwest at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (ZDsRL)

62 Mistrial in Edwards case.**
Ya see what good hair, a smile and a wink will do for ya? Did I mention I'm a millionaire?

Posted by: John Edwards at May 31, 2012 04:32 PM (eavT+)


If you had channeled a dead baby, it would have been an acquittal outright.

Posted by: WalrusRex at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (Hx5uv)

63 Obama has one card he can play: voter fraud on a massive scale.  Don't rule this out, folks.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (i0App)

64 They issued an understated downward revision of the highly publicized GDP numbers for last quarter?

Like they've done every other quarter?  A cynic might suspect that they're issuing overly optimistic numbers that the MSM will cite as evidence of recovery while burying the downward revision.

And by "cynic", I mean "anyone who's been paying attention".

Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (SY2Kh)

65 These "women's jobs" are valued as being worth less money for time. Effin Free Markets! How do they work?!?

Posted by: toby928 at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (NG097)

66 MIG Bank sounds like a cool place to work. Their conference rooms are probably called "Foxbat", "Fulcrum" etc.

Well, they would be if I ran the place.

Posted by: Waterhouse at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (Go/E/)

67 I hate being in the position of cheering bad economic news because it is good for my team politically.
One the other hand, 52% of us voted this clown and his enablers into power, so we probably deserve some pain.

Posted by: MrShad at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (Xqfwb)

68 Barry's going down faster than your New Jersey prom date.

Posted by: CUS at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (84pE9)

69

54 -

 

Women's jobs?  Women's jobs are to rub my feet and make me a sammich (not in that order).  They shall be paid with my gratitude.  And like it! 

Posted by: BurtTC at May 31, 2012 11:36 AM (TOk1P)

70 This just in from the Obama Administration. According to the Administration's own internal cluckulations tommorrow's jobs report will be 2,890,987.3 new jobs have been created for the month of May. Any other numbers reported in the media are false and should be disregarded. On other News....Romney molests small caged animals for pleasure. Now back to CNN HL News and all of our 12,890 viewers....

Posted by: Wolf Blitzer CNN News at May 31, 2012 11:37 AM (48wze)

71 >>>This is what I never understood about all this "Obama is the favorite" chatter.

In a rational US, Obama's approval would be 25% of hard core leftists. He still hovers near 50%. If their was ever a harbinger of DOOM! Obama's approval ratings are just that. It's easy to imagine Obama being reelected when month after month, a large portion of US voters prove their level of stupidity, and their gullibility by continuing to approve of the atrocious job done by President Obama, merely because main stream news tells them they should.

I don't think he is favored under these circumstances, but if he manages to eek out some feeble 3%+ growth with +jobs in the 200k in the last Q before the election I think he wins.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Troll Hunter! at May 31, 2012 11:38 AM (0q2P7)

72 If my own small circle of friends and family is any indication, and I'm not saying it is, people take Obama very PERSONALLY and perceive disagreement with Obama of any kind as a personal attack on THEM.  They get defensive.  They will not only not believe ANYTHING negative about the man they take any criticism of HIM as an attack on THEM and they get as upset as if you attacked THEM and not him. And make no mistake, any criticism of Obama IS an attack.  I have absolutely no doubt at all that everyone I know will vote for Obama because they are voting to prove they're right and Obama's detractors are wrong.  They really don't care about the economy.  My only hope is that I know the dumbest people on the planet and they are not a good sample to go by.  We'll see in November.

Posted by: Jaynie59 at May 31, 2012 11:38 AM (4zKCA)

73
Is UE going down again, tomorrow?

Posted by: soothsayer at May 31, 2012 11:38 AM (9Q7Nu)

74 These "women's jobs" are valued as being worth less money for time.

Effin Free Markets! How do they work?!?>>>

As an example female hookers make way more than male ones.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at May 31, 2012 11:38 AM (tf9Ne)

75 I have a feeling if they ever let me on a Jury ( I doubt it ) I would be arrested for assaulting my fellow jurors


****

The one time I served on a jury was in a drunk driving case. It resulted in hopeless deadlock. At one point I threatened to call in the bailiff because of  a couple of assholes.

The driver had refused to blow on the scene so he was arrested. The officer who arrested him effed up nine ways to Sunday and then was dead busted lying on the stand. The officer at the jail conducted several psychological tests to determine whether the defendant was impaired and concluded he was not. The prosecution's "evidence" was embarrassing.

Yet there were two girls who wanted to convict the guy based upon him "probably" being drunk and "what if" he then kills a kid because we let him off. Logic and reason and any understanding of their role as jurors was completely beyond their grasp and one of them resorted to screaming and cursing at me.

Remember, these are people who vote.

Frightening.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 11:39 AM (piMMO)

76

You know it's bad when HP announces a global layoff of 25,000 workers and there is nary a peep in the media.

 

They want us to think this is The New Normal.  We can't let them get away with it.  I love Romney's line, "this may be the best Barack Obama can do, but it isn't the best America can do." 

Posted by: rockmom at May 31, 2012 11:39 AM (aBlZ1)

77

Ridicule and Mockery.

 

It is fun, easy and drives them nuts. 

Welcome to Alinsky Rules.

Posted by: rd at May 31, 2012 11:40 AM (9sUlj)

78 The NYT, WaPo, LAT, plus CNN, NBC, ABC, Politico, HuffPo, Time, Newsweek, The fucking View, for crissakes, all of them, plus of course Hollywood, Big Labor, the public employee unions, shit, I could go on an on, but they all will wave the pom-poms and beat the drums to the very end.

It.  Will.  Get.  Nasty.

Imagine we go into negative territory, and on top of that, Europe goes so tits-up there are riots in the streets.

Then comes the impact of some screaming news events like SCOTUS on ObamaCare, and a judge throwing cow-pie all over Justice4Trayvon, freeing Zimmerman to pursue his riches through the civil courts.

Then out comes Hollywood with ZeroDarkThirty or whatever the fuck they are titling the UBL snuff film, and by then, the polarization is so great, the side so mobilized, that the right is ready to picket the fucking theaters.

Shits gonna get real.

Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at May 31, 2012 11:40 AM (PH+2B)

79 What could Mitt do after the election to piss off all the environmentalists, make the economy instantly boom and insure Republicans are elected in every office for 100 years?

For starters, he could ignore dumb advice.  Like that you just offered, for instance.

Nationalize oil production and print a shitload of money?  No.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 31, 2012 11:40 AM (SY2Kh)

80
Hold on to your wigs, ladies and gentlemen.
June is gonna be one helluva month.

Posted by: soothsayer at May 31, 2012 11:41 AM (9Q7Nu)

81 We are letting our last 5 employees go tomorrow. I posted here a month or two ago that things were slowing down. It is worse now than at any time during the officially recognized recession for all of the small business guys I talk to. I wondered when or if what I was seeing would show up in the numbers.


*****

I'm so sorry. It must be incredibly difficult to fight so hard and lost it all anyway.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 11:41 AM (piMMO)

82 Eh. Call me a pessimist, but I still give Obama the edge. The mushy-muddled voters get their "news" from the MSM. The MSM decides what will not be discussed, what will be discussed, and how it will be spun. They can tell you Obama is the frugalist preezy ever! He's created a zillion-jillion jobs! They can print pictures of FLOTUS looking charming and Sarah Palin looking idiotic. They can show Obambi with haloes and McCain with horns and vampire teeth. They know how to do this. Yeah, we can hit them at the margins, but the MSM still has great power over the deciding vote. The question is whether reality (a bad economy) can override narrative (MSM.)

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 11:41 AM (C8mVl)

83

Posted by: jwest at May 31, 2012 04:36 PM (ZDsRL)

 

-------------------------------------------

 

You're kidding,  right?  Otherwise it's the stupid.

Posted by: Soona at May 31, 2012 11:41 AM (VRHIU)

84 >>>f my own small circle of friends and family is any indication, and I'm not saying it is, people take Obama very PERSONALLY and perceive disagreement with Obama of any kind as a personal attack on THEM. They get defensive. They will not only not believe ANYTHING negative about the man they take any criticism of HIM as an attack on THEM and they get as upset as if you attacked THEM and not him. And make no mistake, any criticism of Obama IS an attack. I have absolutely no doubt at all that everyone I know will vote for Obama because they are voting to prove they're right and Obama's detractors are wrong. They really don't care about the economy. My only hope is that I know the dumbest people on the planet and they are not a good sample to go by. We'll see in November. The people you are describing are the 38% absolute-lock rock-bottom base of the liberal Democrats. This information isn't useful, as we already can predict with near perfect accuracy what their vote will be.

Posted by: Space Monkey Gleep at May 31, 2012 11:42 AM (aw5Tx)

85 The NFP numbers are useless other than talking points in the real world anyway

The BLS uses the "birth/death" model that assumes a certain number of businesses started or went tits up and it takes a few months for those jobs to show up. How do they figure them? Maybe a dart board for all we know.

At any rate, they assume that net 100K jobs are created owing to the birth/death model.

Kind of like the "jobs created or SAVED by Obama"

Posted by: kbdabear at May 31, 2012 11:42 AM (Y+DPZ)

86

You know it's bad when HP announces a global layoff of 25,000 workers and there is nary a peep in the media.

 

Fuckin' racist ATMs.

Posted by: Barack Hussein Obama at May 31, 2012 11:42 AM (SMBSi)

87 My only hope is that I know the dumbest people on the planet and they are not a good sample to go by. We'll see in November.

My brother (the one who was in the Army) told me with a straight face when OBL was killed, "The Election is over."  To date, he hasn't changed that opinion.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:42 AM (8y9MW)

88 I once told a gal that "I'm the most important person in my life. Aren't you in yours?"  She was shocked, and thought that that was horribly, horribly elitist.

She was cute, too. Damn.

Posted by: Lessons from the Ceramic Throne at May 31, 2012 11:43 AM (rz0yi)

89

#71 there are a lot of stupid liberals who still have jobs, government employees, hospital workers who think Obamacare is great, college professors and employees, and people on welfare.  The economy is just fine for them.  And the young hipsters will vote for Obama even if they don't think the economy is fine, because they don't want the GIGANTIC HORROR CONSERVATIVE to win.  Sadly, that is probably enough to get a base vote of 45% for Obama. 

 

Posted by: rockmom at May 31, 2012 11:44 AM (aBlZ1)

90 They want us to think this is The New Normal. We can't let them get away with it. I love Romney's line, "this may be the best Barack Obama can do, but it isn't the best America can do."

Posted by: rockmom at May 31, 2012 04:39 PM (aBlZ1)



Given how ambivalent I was toward Willard, he's hit every fucking note so well that it's almost like I'm listening to Reagan again.  Or maybe it's my relief of not listening to that stumbling imbecile McRINO and his stable of dunces including his fatassed daughter.

Posted by: Captain Hate at May 31, 2012 11:44 AM (ROTAA)

91

To date, he hasn't changed that opinion.

 

He's not the bright one, is he?

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:44 AM (SMBSi)

92 This in from CNN..Presidence Obama approval rating in all 57 states is now at 105.6%. A new high and Romney's approval rating is now -456 degrees Kelvin. A dramatic turn about based on polling Presidence Obama and his family over a 56 day period. Margin of error is ZERO PERCENT. Now back to Why BUSH is an IDIOT and pulls wings off of innocent fly's of color with Mitt Romney..........

Posted by: Wolf Blitzer CNN News at May 31, 2012 11:44 AM (48wze)

93 Rasmussen: Romney Leads Obama in Independents By Double-Digits. The overall lead is margin of error -- 46-44.[b/] The lead with independents is 47 to 35, though.[\i] If Romney is +12 with independents, he is up more than 2 overall, whatever Rasmussen says right now.

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at May 31, 2012 11:44 AM (oipCQ)

94 Posted by: Lessons from the Ceramic Throne Sometimes the choice of nics on this site just make me laugh.

Posted by: dick cheese at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (NG097)

95
My brother (the one who was in the Army) told me with a straight face when OBL was killed, "The Election is over."

****

I'm sure you will be shocked to learn that Obama spiked that ball yet again at the unveiling of W's portrait today at the White House.

Posted by: WalrusRex at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (Hx5uv)

96 I hate being in the position of cheering bad economic news because it is good for my team politically.

Acknowledging the reality of a bad economy and Obama's failure to improve it isn't "cheering bad economic news" any more than citing his record deficits is cheering for more debt.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (SY2Kh)

97 >>>and I'm not saying it is, people take Obama very PERSONALLY and perceive disagreement with Obama of any kind as a personal attack on THEM.

See Post-purchase rationalization

http://bit.ly/Kif4nk

When you attack him, you are attacking their judgement of having voted for him. As they say, they more you are invested, the harder you will rationalize that you were right to have made the investment.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Troll Hunter! at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (0q2P7)

98 My relatives travel to different countries in europe. They all say that the see Obama supporters in each European country.

Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (lkdo/)

99 Hold on to your wigs, ladies and gentlemen.
June is gonna be one helluva month.



Umm... lace wigs?

Posted by: Thomas at May 31, 2012 11:45 AM (B4c7Y)

100 The mushy-muddled voters get their "news" from the MSM. The MSM decides what will not be discussed, what will be discussed, and how it will be spun.

That may be where they get their "news," but they get their paychecks- should they be so lucky to have them- from their employers.  And they send their mortgage payments to their bank (or rent check to their landlord), and they write checks or swipe a card at the grocery store and at the gas station.

The MFM can't hide how bad it is.  If they continue to try, they'll simply be like Baghdad Bob claiming there were no Americans in Baghdad.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:46 AM (8y9MW)

101 Independence will decide the election.

Posted by: Meghan McCain at May 31, 2012 11:46 AM (SMBSi)

102 Shits gonna get real.


I'll be ready.

Posted by: Martin Lawrence at May 31, 2012 11:46 AM (z9HTb)

103 So does this mean that Edwards can run for office again?

In 1, 2,......

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 11:46 AM (piMMO)

104 When you attack him, you are attacking their judgement of having voted for him. Keep stressing that they were lied to by the media. It's a twofer.

Posted by: dick cheese at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (NG097)

105 yeah.... what Steevy said!

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (Mrdk1)

106 America's GDP history under Obama Total GDP Growth 2012 1Q 1.88% 2011 4Q 2.97% 3Q 1.81% 2Q 1.34% 1Q 0.36% 2010 4Q 2.36% 3Q 2.50% 2Q 3.79% 1Q 3.94% 2009 4Q 3.81% 3Q 1.69% 2Q -0.69% 1Q -6.66%

Posted by: Comrade Arthur at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (Z+/1s)

107 He's not the bright one, is he?

He's the HS Assistant Principle.  Used to be the department head of the Math Department at a (different) HS in the same district.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (8y9MW)

108 I  am  totally  butt  hurt  after  todays  debacle!  Already  I'm  choomin'  and  drinkin'  "lean".   Tomorrow  is  another  day and  I'll  let  Jay  Carney  handle  it. 

Posted by: Axelrod Looking Like An Ass In Mass. at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (c3mby)

109 The government in turn pays off the national debt,...

Fine

...all individual mortgages, consumer debt (credit cards, installment loans) and student loans.

No fucking way! It's your debt, you signed for it; you pay it off. Jeebus, this is beyond the stupid espoused by OWSers.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (UzjcV)

110 Tomorrow is also National Donut Day.  FKOTUS hardest hit.

LET'S DUNK!

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (/kI1Q)

111 Not that that's saying much, really, but he's not dumb in anything else- just his politics.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:47 AM (8y9MW)

112 Actually, if you think things aren't really going to get better unless we have another qe....then you'd want to give the fed an excuse to do it....and you'd want to be able to say, every month thereafter, "hey, it's getting better"...

Posted by: ????? at May 31, 2012 11:48 AM (oZfic)

113
Sometimes the choice of nics on this site just make me laugh.

Posted by: dick cheese at May 31, 2012 04:45 PM (NG097)



****


You're one to talk.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 31, 2012 11:48 AM (piMMO)

114 He strangled Bin Laden with his bare hands and brought us from the horrible Bush years into Utopia!

What more do you racist wingnuts want!!!!

Posted by: David Letterman at May 31, 2012 11:48 AM (Y+DPZ)

115 The BLS uses the "birth/death" model that assumes a certain number of businesses started or went tits up and it takes a few months for those jobs to show up. How do they figure them?

****

The ancient Roman read the entrails of sacrificed animals.  I'm sure the Obama regime does something similar.

Posted by: WalrusRex at May 31, 2012 11:48 AM (Hx5uv)

116

 (FDR was reelected three times, while presiding over a depression many feel he extended and deepened).

 

 

This has been brought up over and over. That time is nothing like this time. The people that felt that FDR extended the depression were doing it in hindsight. The ability to communicate during the depression compared to today is light years different. Obama has two chances to be reelected, slim and none.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 31, 2012 11:48 AM (mFxQX)

117 Too choom to panic?

Posted by: USA at May 31, 2012 11:49 AM (6Cjut)

118 If I'm Axelrodent, I'm pouring myself a stiff drink, sitting down with a pencil and a pad of paper, and writing down what my assets are:

1. The slavish adulation of the MSM
2. Guaranteed 95 percent of the black vote
3. Guaranteed something just short of 100 percent of the hard left vote
4. Hollywood money
5. OWS protestors already on the street in major cities
6. The proven efficacy of flash mobs to disrupt just about any activity.

Now throw all those assets together and what do you do?

Inform blacks and the hard left that the only way to win is to take to the streets. Get the hollywood money to pay for the infrastructure necessary to sustain constant protests, acts of civil disobedience, and vote fraud. Then have the MSM write that there will be no peace unless Barky is reelected. It can work, and it might be all they have.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 31, 2012 11:49 AM (RD7QR)

119


He's the HS Assistant Principle.

 

So, he orders the paperclips  and staples?

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 11:49 AM (SMBSi)

120 I guess what really bothers me is that no matter what is reveled between now and November 45% of the people who vote will vote for Obama. It just makes me shake my head.

Posted by: JAFKIAC at May 31, 2012 11:49 AM (lwhWu)

121 My relatives travel to different countries in europe. They all say that the see Obama supporters in each European country. Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 04:45 PM (lkdo/) And that matters how?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 11:49 AM (05RcU)

122 Posted by: Comrade Arthur at May 31, 2012 04:47 PM (Z+/1s)

Wow.  The last half of 2009 and Q1 2010 were some heady days, weren't they?  Nearly 4 whole percent GDP growth.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:50 AM (8y9MW)

123

 

 

And the Stupid Ass Indicators are showing a marked downtrend in the displays of Barry's jugeared incompetence.

 

If only real lif ecould be as easy as the black guy on 24 had it.

 

 

 

 

Posted by: Rev. Dr. E. Buzz. Bunnies. at May 31, 2012 11:50 AM (tcSZb)

124 I guess what really bothers me is that no matter what is reveled between now and November 45% of the people who vote will vote for Obama. It just makes me shake my head. Posted by: JAFKIAC at May 31, 2012 04:49 PM (lwhWu) Makes me have homicidal thoughts about half the people I meet. But that's just me

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 11:50 AM (05RcU)

125 I honestly think the Obamabots and Barky himself are poorly prepared for a loss in November.  It just isn't something he's dealt with and his minions are going to go full tilt Wisconsin Labor Union on the whole country...    Barky and the MSM have done damage to the US that will take a very long time to work through.... 

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 11:50 AM (Mrdk1)

126 My relatives travel to different countries in europe. They all say that the see Obama supporters in each European country.







Fuck Europe.

The reason the US exists is because Americans decided that being Europeans sucks donkey balls.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (xDqit)

127 The ancient Roman read the entrails of sacrificed animals. I'm sure the Obama regime does something similar.

I heard SCOAMF uses dogs. Then he eats them.

Posted by: Retread at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (joSBv)

128 You guys are nothing but Choom and Gloom. Obama will pull it out, just you wait and see!

Posted by: President of the President Obama Fan Club at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (oipCQ)

129 Barky and the MSM have done damage to the US that will take a very long time to work through.... Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 04:50 PM (Mrdk1) We're still suffering the results of Carter

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (05RcU)

130 So, he orders thepaperclips and staples?

Na.  I don't want to be too hard on him.  I'm not sure how he got brainwashed, but he used to be fairly level headed.  And, like I said, in everything except his political opinions he's pretty smart.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (8y9MW)

131 What's the name of this movie again?Posted by: IllTemperedCur

The Choom Generation
(awful movie btw...)

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 31, 2012 11:51 AM (akXk+)

132 Inform blacks and the hard left that the only way to win is to take to the streets. 1968 Past is prologue. Nixon approves.

Posted by: dick cheese at May 31, 2012 11:52 AM (NG097)

133 #59 - so sorry to hear your news; good luck to you and the newly unemployed.  Are you located in Clownifornia, by chance?  (I am; seeing your experience all too often)

Posted by: the Butcher at May 31, 2012 11:52 AM (8g9qq)

134 FDR was different, people in the depression had seen a boom in the twenty's but that boom was short lived. Although there had been expansion in the late 1800's and early part of the 1900's it wasn't all dollar bills and hookers across the board. My guess is most people thought the "roaring 20's" was too large of a growth period and that they were now correcting back to the norm. Remember recession cycles had gotten shorter with longer gaps in between before 2008. There was a recession before WW1 and one after before the great depression.

Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at May 31, 2012 11:53 AM (tKFT6)

135 I'm sure you will be shocked to learn that Obama spiked that ball yet again at the unveiling of W's portrait today at the White House.

----

Funny thing about spiking a football.


Sometimes it takes a funny hop and slams you in the junk, Mr President.

Posted by: fixerupper at May 31, 2012 11:53 AM (C8hzL)

136 Lampshade are you related to Curious?

Posted by: Dagny at May 31, 2012 11:53 AM (9ybEY)

137 My only hope is that I know the dumbest people on the planet and they are not a good sample to go by. We'll see in November.

Posted by: Jaynie59 at May 31, 2012 04:38 PM (4zKCA)


Wow.  You know the same folks I do.  Politics never used to enter into discussions within my so called circle, until that clusterfuck showed up.  It is as you said. They take any attack on him as an attack on them.  Now it's so bad we have nearly dropped our entire group and have gone off on our own.   I just can't stomach the fact that their stupidity has screwed this great country. Now I hold them personally responsible.  They own it.

Posted by: Derak at May 31, 2012 11:53 AM (VEhDR)

138 What's the name of this movie again?


Dazed and Confused




Posted by: Thomas at May 31, 2012 11:54 AM (B4c7Y)

139 I still think Obama's a lock. Here's why:

If the race really looks close (I don't think it really does yet), the media will go *insane* in its demonization of the kinds of people whom "persuadables" (people with a media-like default preference for Democrats) think of as Romney *voters*. And the media will generate events that allow them to do so. Martin/Zimmerman's a solid template.

The persuadables will thereby be persuaded to turn out and stop those demons people from proxy-possessing the country via Romney.

Also, lotta fake votes out there.

Posted by: nope at May 31, 2012 11:54 AM (cePv8)

140 Then out comes Hollywood with ZeroDarkThirty or whatever the fuck they are titling the UBL snuff film

****

I can see the clip now.  Samuel L Jackson as Obama holding a hot chick in one arm and cradling an assault rifle pointed at a cowering bin Laden in the other saying,  "M-16 motherfucker.  Do you speak it?"

Posted by: WalrusRex at May 31, 2012 11:54 AM (Hx5uv)

141 My son had an insightful comment the other night.  He will be 19 in September and so will vote for the first time in November.  He said lots of his friends aren't going to vote because they think nobody can make a difference when things are this bad.  He said, "that's when you HAVE to vote!  What other chance do we have, than to get somebody else in there and see if he can fix it?  And this guy may be just the guy who can, he knows business and understands how to get businesses growing. He seems like a grownup compared to Obama."   This is a kid who supported John Kerry in 2004 and hated George W. Bush. 

Posted by: rockmom at May 31, 2012 11:55 AM (aBlZ1)

142

95 -

 

Funny how life imitates art.  Obama is precisely like Killface from "Frisky Dingo."  Killface, I'm sure you will recall, accidentally ended Global Warming when the device he intended to blow up Earth ended up moving it a couple feet away from the sun, thus...

 

So when Killface ran for President, he would say things like "hello, global warming..." in that smug voice of his. 

 

I'm probably being racist, given how white Killface is. 

Posted by: BurtTC at May 31, 2012 11:55 AM (TOk1P)

143 OT/  Mistrial in Edwards trial...   wow

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 11:55 AM (Mrdk1)

144 101 Independence will decide the election.

Posted by: Meghan McCain at May 31, 2012 04:46 PM (SMBSi)

*

Your absolutely right deary, now go get us some beers from mommys big ol' beer building. 

Posted by: dananjcon at May 31, 2012 11:55 AM (eavT+)

145 Ace:"But it's astonishing to me that anyone could imagine that someone could be favored under such circumstances -- or, even more preposterously, that Obama had the election virtually locked-up."

I have to constantly remind myself never to underestimate the extent of Liberal psychological cocooning.   The Liberal believes he is right because he must be right because that's the way the world works (cf. "reality-based community").  This is a variant of the theory of Revolutionary Consciousness as a prereq to understanding how the world works.  It may help to read through some of the Gulag Archipelago to refresh this perspective.

Posted by: JeremiadBullfrog at May 31, 2012 11:55 AM (Nsl16)

146 >>I'm not sure how he got brainwashed, but he used to be fairly level headed.

Assistant Principal, you say?  8 years of Ejukashun Kollij.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 31, 2012 11:56 AM (/kI1Q)

147 The reality is we could be responding to a Euro collapse prior to the election and immense destabilization which could quite literally put everything on hold, including the constitution as the cascade occurs. What are the probabilities of something unsustainable becoming less unsustainable - economic knives are being juggled with more on the way. Classical data points to reckon things like election outcomes will be trumped during unprecedented crisis. Keep a cool head for turbulence is in the cards and then comes the main act - financial end game.

Posted by: Jornolist at May 31, 2012 11:57 AM (FwNQS)

148 I would suggest you take a look at the 2006 campaign of the original SCOAMF in a skirt; Michigan Governor Jenny Granholm (now an Obama economic advisor.) Despite a miserable Michigan economy, she cruised to an easy re-election in 2006 when Democrats successfully painted her opponent as ... (drumroll)... a rich, out-of-touch, weird businessman.

Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at May 31, 2012 11:57 AM (gPDxp)

149 So, he orders thepaperclips and staples?

Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 04:49 PM (SMBSi)

 

---------------------------------------------

 

No.  That's the job of the assistant  to the assistant vice principal.  (Not kidding).

Posted by: Soona at May 31, 2012 11:57 AM (VRHIU)

150 121 My relatives travel to different countries in europe. They all say that the see Obama supporters in each European country.
Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 04:45 PM (lkdo/)

And that matters how? Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 04:49 PM

It matters because Europeans are always right, and Obama is just trying to right the horrors against Europeans brought about by BOOOSH.

Wasn't it your intellectual and moral betters at the New York Times who told you that Greeks are the happiest people in the world and we should emulate them?

Posted by: The New York Times at May 31, 2012 11:57 AM (Y+DPZ)

151 130- " I'm not sure how he got brainwashed, but he used to be fairly level headed. " Ah. Before he met HER? (The most common reason that men change their politics.)

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 11:58 AM (C8mVl)

152 Jeez rockmom. You drop him on his head?

Posted by: Dagny at May 31, 2012 11:58 AM (9ybEY)

153
I remember how the retards at MSLSD were celebrating when Osama Bin Laden was killed claiming this this wraps up the 2012 elections for the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: YIKES! at May 31, 2012 11:58 AM (fgJMi)

154 >>That's the job of the assistant to the assistant vice principal.

Gosh, we keep pouring all this money into schools and the kids never learn anything.

More money, so the assistant to the assistant vice principal can hire an assistant!!

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 31, 2012 11:59 AM (/kI1Q)

155 8 years of Ejukashun Kollij.

No.  That's the weird thing.  Except for his Masters in Education Admin (required to become an administrator) he never took Ed classes.  He went the Alternative Certification route.

Now, he did have a degree in Youth and Family Ministry, but, in the Church of Christ, we call that "Majoring in Youth Minister."  So that shouldn't have been all that bad, either.

I mean, I'm the most conservative person in my immediate family, with the possible exception of my dad, but that particular brother is out there, and I don't know why.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 31, 2012 11:59 AM (8y9MW)

156 They are already starting to say that he wouldn't want to be president if he could do the best job so he'd rather have one term.  so if they are saying that they are sort of acknowledging that it will be close.  But, when they say stuff like that it usually means they figure he'll pull it out by any means and they are just saying it thinking they are fooling you republicans/conservatives..

Posted by: ????? at May 31, 2012 11:59 AM (oZfic)

157 >>>America's GDP history under Obama

>>>The last half of 2009 and Q1 2010 were some heady days, weren't they? Nearly 4 whole percent GDP growth.

Yeah I would figure out a way to highlight that in an ad.

Show the GDP growth on a graph dwindling back to 2%

Voice over: There's your recovery.
Now VOTE to re-elect Obama, and get used to the new American Economy.
It's what you deserve.




Posted by: MikeTheMoose Troll Hunter! at May 31, 2012 11:59 AM (0q2P7)

158 Keep a cool head for turbulence is in the cards and then comes the main act - financial end game. Those are like Political I-Ching sayings.

Posted by: toby928 at May 31, 2012 12:00 PM (NG097)

159 We need to support President Obama. We can't know how good he is until we reelect him.

Posted by: Nancy Pelosi at May 31, 2012 12:00 PM (eHIJJ)

160 Political chatter aside, people are very concerned about the economic conditions a lack of recovery and no real, bold, tangible plans about what the President is going to do to change things.

I believe Mr. Obama does himself a complete disservice by delving into these nonsensical personal issues or foisting up alleged "firsts" such as support for "gay marriage". That just further reminds folks he has done zero over the past several years that was bold, different or truly consequential to their lives. In fact, I really don't see how he recovers- even if he starts now. It could happen I suppose. But I just don't see it.

Can anybody honestly name one economic plan that made a difference? I can't.

If Romney keeps driving the failure point and lack of accomplishments side by side with his ideas, which resemble bold American-Capitalist ideas familiar to the electorate - he wins.

By contrasting Obama's unfamiliar approach- call it anti-capitalist, big-government, European-Socialist- whatever next to proven ideas that have worked in the past, folks will get it. They are beginning to link Romney's personal success to his capabilities and theorizing what type of President he will be.

...And it's not an evil capitalist. He's that guy we all use to aspire to be before this latest presidency. 

Posted by: Exile at May 31, 2012 12:00 PM (O0lVq)

161

#145 the Press Corps are all in New York and Washington, and the economies there are great thanks to the TARP and the consolidation of the big banks, and the massive growth of the federal government under Obama.  If you visit either city these days, you will find it almost obscene.  The swanky steakhouses are full, the hotels are full, the shops are all open and bustling, houses are selling and prices are going up.  Like the rest of America used to be, but isn't anymore. 

 

If most Americans had an inkling how high they are living in DC and New York, they would be coming after Obama with pitchforks and torches.  I would really love to see one of the super-PACs run an ad showing the top income ZIP codes in America, which are all in the DC area now, a scene from the lavish new baseball park in Washington filled with lobbyists and lawyers, etc. and then contrast it with scenes of a small town with all of its Main Street boarded up. 

Posted by: rockmom at May 31, 2012 12:01 PM (aBlZ1)

162 We're still suffering the results of Carter Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 04:51 PM

You're right of course.  And my comment is crap, cause we never really heal up... there will never be a bill of reckoning for the left/progressive. 

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 12:01 PM (Mrdk1)

163
Wasn't it your intellectual and moral betters at the New York Times who told you that Greeks are the happiest people in the world and we should emulate them?
Posted by: The New York Times at May 31, 2012 04:57 PM (Y+DPZ)



I have a right to other peoples money so were is it.


Posted by: The Greeks at May 31, 2012 12:01 PM (fgJMi)

164 155 Maybe it really is a mental illness.

Posted by: steevy at May 31, 2012 12:02 PM (Xb3hu)

165 Every family member and acquaintance I know--save 1-- who supported Shithead in '08 still does.   Just one man's observation, and yes some of them are family to my shame.

Posted by: jinxthecat at May 31, 2012 12:03 PM (l3vZN)

166 Can't wait until the Supreme Court lets the air out of Urkelcare...I will call every lib I know and ask 'so tell me again why you think this dipshit knows anything about the constitution?' and LAUGH.  I'm evil that way.

Posted by: model_1066 at May 31, 2012 12:04 PM (YbQJm)

167 Today, both Rick Santelli and Paul Ryan seemed to have a change in attitude.  Almost as though they suddenly got permission to fight back and say what they really are thinking.  the other day Kudlow began essentially saying the prez's economic policy was an ignorant one....And romney going to Sole in dra..and the paulbots planning a jamboree and saying romney hasn't won.....wonder how it is all connected....

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:04 PM (oZfic)

168 141- I am cautiously optimistic about the youth vote. I've got 4 kids in HS and college and have seen transformations like that of your son among their friends. I have also seen super-O-bot friends say they're not interested in politics anymore. No one can save us! Obama cannot possibly get the youth to turn out for him this time they way they did in 2008.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 12:05 PM (C8mVl)

169 that's great jinx, but has anyone who voted against him in 2008 moved over to his side? I doubt he's picked up a single vote outside of people turning 18.

Posted by: X at May 31, 2012 12:06 PM (KHo8t)

170 164155 Maybe it really is a mental illness.

Posted by: steevy at May 31, 2012 05:02 PM (Xb3hu)

 

It's the Disney effect of stunted development...if you just believe it enough, your wishes will come true!  That, and they are loath to admit that they were so easily conned, because they are all smart and reality-based and stuff...

Posted by: model_1066 at May 31, 2012 12:06 PM (YbQJm)

171 You are right, it is not the changing minds, it is turnout that will be the game changer.

Posted by: jinxthecat at May 31, 2012 12:06 PM (l3vZN)

172 More money, so the assistant to the assistant vice principal can hire an assistant!!

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at May 31, 2012 04:59 PM (/kI1Q)

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

Nah.  They get only secretaries.  But the secretaries get IT people. 

Posted by: Soona at May 31, 2012 12:06 PM (VRHIU)

173 166 Can't wait until the Supreme Court lets the air out of Urkelcare...I will call every lib I know and ask 'so tell me again why you think this dipshit knows anything about the constitution?' and LAUGH. I'm evil that way.

Posted by: model_1066 at May 31, 2012 05:04 PM (YbQJm)


It's not in the bag yet. There's still plenty of time for somebody to Grow in Office.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 31, 2012 12:07 PM (RD7QR)

174 Obama cannot possibly get the youth to turn out for him this time they way they did in 2008.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 05:05 PM (C8mVl)

I wouldn't be so sure of that....

There's still a lot of time until november and a lot of stuff that can be done at colleges, universities, fb and twitter....

they will make you a pariah if you don't vote...

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:07 PM (oZfic)

175 The pollsters right saying the economy is getting better is a bad idea. Even on the internet whenever there is an article wondering if the economy is improving people freak out. I think the goal will be to shift the blame to other causes, most likely Europe. They could also play it by blaming local leaders, here in cali whenever someone mentions that liberals run the state people point out stupid shit like prop 13 or repubs are holding the state hostage. Anyone and everyone will be a target, from blaming economic ideas to specific people like politicians or businessmen.

Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at May 31, 2012 12:07 PM (tKFT6)

176 Please tell me that the colored woman lesbian amputee demo is still going for Obama...... For G-ds sake that is all he has left.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at May 31, 2012 12:08 PM (jucos)

177 Do they really imagine that the millions of lightly-partisan, results-oriented, apolitical voters out there love Obama just for being Obama, as they do?

Not to drain your sentiment of its eloquence by actually answering, ace... but yes, hardcore libs all think it's still 2008. The plan to hold the convention in NC should tell you all you need to know about actual reality vs. their impression of reality.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at May 31, 2012 12:09 PM (AlYnQ)

178

I know that it's not good to be cocky, Winston Wolf, etc...and I don't think that the election is wraped up for Mitt by any means.....but I am getting sick of the constant over-rating of Obama and his machine. He and the Dems got smoked in 2010, will most likey get kicked in the balls several times next month by Scotus and WI, and his re-election campaign has been shooting itself in the foot on a daily basis, sometimes twice. As for anecdotes, I know people that voted for Zero in '08 who are either not voting at all or pinching the nose and going for Romney. Lots of WTF for Obama.

I don't think he'll win.

 

Posted by: Dear Reader the Dog Eater at May 31, 2012 12:09 PM (YmPwQ)

179 165.. jinx....
Same here.  several in my family is ate up with Carter-lovin', O-bots ( including my dear mother who reads the daily kos and NYT) and none are a bit swayed in their support for Barky of the Choom gang.  Makes me ill..  They vote D... all the time and every chance they get. 

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 12:10 PM (Mrdk1)

180  I am cautiously optimistic about the youth vote. I've got 4 kids in HS and college and have seen transformations like that of your son among their friends. I have also seen super-O-bot friends say they're not interested in politics anymore. No one can save us!

Obama cannot possibly get the youth to turn out for him this time they way they did in 2008.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 05:05 PM (C8mVl)

 

------------------------------------------------

 

The people that voted for the SCOAMT are still in the middle of the five stages of grief.  I think  they're trying to bargain right now.

Posted by: Soona at May 31, 2012 12:10 PM (VRHIU)

181 Posted by: Dear Reader the Dog Eater at May 31, 2012 05:09 PM (YmPwQ)

I disagree....if you underestimate your opponents capabilities you are doomed to failure...better to assume you are playing 7 dimensional chess against a group of world class chess players than to assume the opposite and find out you underestimated their ability.

His "I have to finish what I started, give me a chance, things are getting better, we can accomplish a great deal together, again" meme is working quietly.   America always gives you a second chance.  And they always go for the perceived underdog and he's trying for his second chance by behaving like the perceived underdog.   This is why the romney camp has their work cut out for them, it's like walking on glass and trying not to fall through.

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:13 PM (oZfic)

182 The scary part is that back when employment was ticking up due to the warm weather, Team Obama was out saying "Oh boy, we've turned the corner now!", when in actuality, if they had ANY idea what they were doing at all they would have known this was a seasonal blip.

More than anything else this demonstrates that the people running our nation have NO idea what they are doing or how to help create jobs.  They are merely throwing taxdollars at the wall hoping something sticks.

Now where did that "liberals are the smart ones" myth get started?

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at May 31, 2012 12:13 PM (hlUJY)

183 Funny all the MSM polling has Obama way way way ahead with Independents - which we all know is silly.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at May 31, 2012 12:14 PM (hlUJY)

184 for some, obama is awesome, more so than anything they have going on in their lives. So, of course, they'd root for his advancement, it's like a parent cheering on a child. What a better analog for real child than a dog that most yuppies fail to have these days. Obama is their seed, their future, so they take the hits so he can achieve. I am serious.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at May 31, 2012 12:15 PM (QxSug)

185 They are merely throwing taxdollars at the wall hoping something sticks.

I don't even think they're hoping something sticks. What evidence do we have that these people actually want the economy to improve? Obama said repeatedly he wants to get rid of all the ups and downs in the economy and have just a straight line. A flat, straight line.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at May 31, 2012 12:15 PM (AlYnQ)

186 Now where did that "liberals are the smart ones" myth get started?

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at May 31, 2012 05:13 PM (hlUJY)

Appearance can be very different than reality.  How do you know they aren't timing the economy coming back like gangbusters just in time for the election?  then people will say "well look the economy is getting better, better to keep this guy in place than switch administrations, don't want to rock the boat"

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:16 PM (oZfic)

187 Dow is great and corporate profits are at all time highs who cares  about the workers only socialists

Posted by: occam at May 31, 2012 12:17 PM (71sq+)

188 Bush's fault.  Bain's fault. GOP's fault.  Racist's fault. ATM's fault. Arab Spring's fault. Greece's fault. Big Bank's fault. Big Oil's fault. Big Pharma's fault.

Posted by: Barky the JEF at May 31, 2012 12:17 PM (xCpfo)

189

John Edwards sounding postively Clinton-esque. He's going to take all the blame and therefore reserve to himself all the credit when he's allowed back into polite sciety sometime in the very near future.

Heck he'll probably be out on the stump this year, if only in deep blue pro-labor/trial lawyer districts.

And if God forbid Obama wins another term, look for Edwards to get an administration plum tucked quietly away somewhere.

He might also decide to make gabillions as a celebrity litigator.

Either way I think his story arc is on the upwing right now.

Posted by: MikeD at May 31, 2012 12:17 PM (p8QOg)

190 team stupid is banking on the idea that it's an insane idea to think that a guy who wrote in his bio's that he was born in Kenya, was actually born in Kenya. That that's so insane, more so than Kerry hint hint wink wink embracing trutherism, that it'll cost Romnies the election. good luck that. Actually, no diaf, no luck for you, swampy.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at May 31, 2012 12:18 PM (QxSug)

191 You are all racist haters. I, and everyone I know, supports our President.

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, VT at May 31, 2012 12:19 PM (jCQ+I)

192 How about...   with the economy diving, Europe unraveling, the Obama team trot out the   " Now is NOT the time to elect a untested President"...  We should reelect the SCOAMF because his administration will be best able to handle the turmoil ahead and dangerous times..."?

Worked for FDR, didn't it?

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 12:20 PM (Mrdk1)

193 174- I concede that Obama may get the same PERCENTAGE of youth votes as last time, but the absolute numbers will fall. At least here in Virginia, I would bet on it. (And I am a pessimist.)

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 12:20 PM (C8mVl)

194 o, he orders thepaperclips and staples? Posted by: garrett at May 31, 2012 04:49 PM (SMBSi) --------------------------------------------- No. That's the job of the assistant to the assistant vice principal. (Not kidding). It is sad...but true. Somebody has to order the paper clips and fill the coffee pot. I walked into a city school admin office once and the discussion among the school leadership was about the benefits of communism. One admin was an open communist. Why do we have so any administrators in urban schools? Cut the fat.

Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 12:20 PM (lkdo/)

195 Barack is a good, pleasant President worthy of reelection like Michelle is one of the most beautiful women to ever grace this earth.

How often do you hear such stuff? And who in their right mind believes it? Sorry, but the preference cascade will be tidal come November. Obama is constitutionally (NOT Constitutionally) incapable of a) changing his stripes or b) changing them in a way that will resonate while voters can see the truth falling around them.

Don't start polishing the porpoise, gentlemen, but Obamanation is going down. He'll be dragging another limb of the MFM with him, too, so we also have that going for us.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at May 31, 2012 12:21 PM (eHIJJ)

196 How do you know they aren't timing the economy coming back like gangbusters just in time for the election? I can read a calendar.

Posted by: toby928 at May 31, 2012 12:21 PM (NG097)

197 I'm still putting my bet on Obama winning easy.  Because we haven't learned.

In 2008 it was all about strength in Foreign Policy/the GWOT.  So against everyone's better judgement we, being the stupid party, allowed the legacy media to nominate McCain.  And instantly Soros did his currency trick and tanked the economy by popping the real estate bubble at a time of his choosing, shifting the issue to the economy as McCain was demonstrating his unique unfitness on that issue.

So now here we are in 2012 and it is the economy and nothing but the economy.  And again we allowed the legacy media, in cahoots with the Republican establishment... again, to pick the one nominee 'who can win' a battle over the economy.  You might be shocked when the topic gets changed back to foreign affairs around convention time.  I won't be.   Nope, it will all suddenly be all about Mr. "I killed Osama with my bare hands" Obama's perfect mastery of whatever foreign (war in the middle east, duh.  Iran?  Probably) crisis is put on non-stop rotation in the media until election day.

Oh, and the economy WILL get better before election day.  Bank on it, look who puts out the figures and who reports em.  They won't even have to lie much, Europe tanking will cause a flight to safety and where else can money go?

Posted by: John Morris at May 31, 2012 12:21 PM (sCRhB)

198 Posted by: Margarita DeVille at May 31, 2012 05:20 PM (C8mVl)

why has the government cornered all the student debt?  think about that, think about the myriad of articles lately about the student debt bubble....

then think about the youth vote...

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:21 PM (oZfic)

199 I have also seen school adm that get these BS alternative admin degrees. Then they are handling a multi million dollar school budget and manager over 1000 people. No CEO has that much power without any checks and balances/accountability.

Posted by: Lampshade at May 31, 2012 12:22 PM (lkdo/)

200 They vote D... all the time and every chance they get.

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 05:10 PM (Mrdk1)

 

 

Do they live in Texas?

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 31, 2012 12:23 PM (mFxQX)

201 Europe tanking will cause a flight to safety and where else can money go? It won't create jobs, and that's Barry's albatross. I'm predicting a double dip to negative growth before the end of summer.

Posted by: toby928 at May 31, 2012 12:24 PM (NG097)

202 THAR' SHE BLOWS!

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 31, 2012 12:25 PM (akXk+)

203 188 Bush's fault. Bain's fault. GOP's fault. Racist's fault. ATM's fault. Arab Spring's fault. Greece's fault. Big Bank's fault. Big Oil's fault. Big Pharma's fault.

Posted by: Barky the JEF

==================================

 

i think you forgot one there

Posted by: eurw at May 31, 2012 12:26 PM (77KcJ)

204 Do they live in Texas?

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 31, 2012 05:23 PM (mFxQX)


No.. Oklahoma and Indiana and North Carolina.  Mom's in Oklahoma and wears her liberal minority status as a badge of honor.  She feels as she's surrounded by mouth breathers who can't understand the true nature of government and oddly don't trust their betters judgement.  All on her side of the family... college educated and entombed in a liberal mindset .  ( and she's mostly right about Okie's being mouthbreathers... heh hehe.... just kidding )

Posted by: Yip in Texas at May 31, 2012 12:29 PM (Mrdk1)

205 "While that helps governments issue more and more debt, the strategy could ultimately explode if the governments are unable to make the bond payments, leaving the banks with billions of toxic debt, says Citigroup strategist Hans Lorenzen."

"Specifically," Lorenzen adds, "having banks loaded up with domestic sovereign debt will only increase the domestic fallout if the sovereign ultimately reneges on its obligations."http://tinyurl.com/7rru7mu

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 12:32 PM (oZfic)

206 Oh, and the economy WILL get better before election day. Bank on it, look who puts out the figures and who reports em. They won't even have to lie much, Europe tanking will cause a flight to safety and where else can money go?Posted by: John Morris

Your concern is noted but, no, the economy will not get better, nor will anyone here 'bank on it.'

If it's purely a political game, then why didn't Bush just fudge the numbers? Numbers can only be tortured up to a point, and we've reached the limit of the O-ring's abilities.

Second, you do realize that a significant chunk of the Fortune 500's revenue comes from the EU with a boost from the advantageous exchange rate?

Remove that exchange rate and revenue and US companies will do squat with the extra capital. Even that assumes that the capital from overseas isn't already reflected in the 2009 - 20011 'recovery boom.'

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 31, 2012 12:32 PM (akXk+)

207 And that matters how?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 31, 2012 04:49 PM (05RcU)

 

 

Uh, because they funnelled an untraceable boatload of dollars to Obamas campaign in 2008 through his website illegally?

Posted by: Johnnyreb at May 31, 2012 12:41 PM (qohY0)

208 If it's purely a political game, then why didn't Bush just fudge the numbers?

I'm not saying I agree totally with Mr. Morris (although I've been making the point about the last minute shift to foreign policy for the last six months), but the BLS seems to be run by moonbats. That's why the numbers under Barky mostly get "revised downward" and the numbers under Bush most got "revised upward".

Posted by: The Mega Independent at May 31, 2012 12:44 PM (AlYnQ)

209 but the BLS seems to be run by moonbats. That's why the numbers under Barky mostly get "revised downward" and the numbers under Bush most got "revised upward".Posted by:The Mega Independent

Executive branch, Bush was in charge of the hiring and firing. If he wanted to, he could have had them all removed.

Another thing, the birth/death modeling was in place long before both Obaka and Bush.

Lastly, my final point on the matter still stands; there's only so much they can misrepresent. At some point, as Ace noted, the public will not accept numbers that are dramatically different than what the see around them.

Their going to be pissed, not happy to see another four years of bullshit served with a jutted chin or shit-eatting grin.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 31, 2012 12:50 PM (akXk+)

210
Executive branch, Bush was in charge of the hiring and firing.

I... I did not know that.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at May 31, 2012 12:57 PM (AlYnQ)

211 I work with a bunch of uber liberals. (Rachel Maddow is their patron saint.) It's not that they think Obama is "god", they are just so afraid of Republicans being in control that even a bumbling Obama is better than *anything* the Republicans can do. (They don't even look at the divide between Conservative and Republican - it's all the same to them.) The irrational fear is stated daily: He's scary. I'm afraid of . They will take away my . It's strange, because these people I work with are conservative in business - we own and operate our own small business - but when it comes to politics they throw that all out and it's 180 degrees in opposition to how they are running a company. Not sure if there is a psychological syndrome for this, but there should be.

Posted by: TheMadItalian at May 31, 2012 01:02 PM (zAb0s)

212 Hey Mad Italian. Sounds like the people you work with might need to read Mamet's book. The disconnect between his politics and how he lived his everyday business life is what made him switch. Maybe the point would not be lost on them.

Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at May 31, 2012 01:17 PM (qwK3S)

213

jobs numbers aren't surprising, China's economy is slowing down probably due to consistently lower demand for their goods in the West and elsewhere.

 

central planners hardest hit...

Posted by: the commentor formerly known as Shoey at May 31, 2012 01:22 PM (m6OUa)

214 "If this guy is anywhere near right, and we're entering a very very low period (after the previous period merely being very low), the election is all but over"

Nobody told me there would be math!!

Posted by: President Barry at May 31, 2012 01:25 PM (DQHjw)

215 Sure, people voted for FDR and Granholm because they didn't have the benefit of history. All the crap FDR pulled and all the new agencies he created are now revealed to be hopelessly useless. And in 2006 the tax and spend economy hadn't yet created.

So I have hope. For a big Change.

Posted by: PJ at May 31, 2012 01:31 PM (DQHjw)

216 Republicans underestimate the damage the dems did to the republican brand.  They were everywhere undermining bush every time he opened his mouth or did anything. 

They hope to deliver the final demoralizing blow in Wisconsin with walker. 

Posted by: contrarian... at May 31, 2012 01:40 PM (oZfic)

217

I still say that barky will not run.

 

Posted by: john at May 31, 2012 01:41 PM (btEs1)

218 Four months ago, my father-in-law said "Obama's gonna win again." Last week I saw him again and he said "I don't think he'll win." Romney has been gaining steadily in the polls and, frankly, I don't see what would change that trajectory.

Posted by: Eric Lindholm at May 31, 2012 02:56 PM (X0Sxx)

219 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Private payroll growth picked up only slightly in May and claims for jobless benefits rose last week, suggesting the U.S. labor market recovery was losing steam after a strong performance early in the year.




Losing steam? How can sluggish at best lose any more steam?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at May 31, 2012 03:43 PM (YjVqk)

220 I remember Thomas Franks, leftard journalist (BIRM) ranting on and on about What's the Matter With Kansas? - that is, why are the yokels all bent out of shape about values issues like, say, gay marriage, when what really matters is money issues - or, to be precise, how the Democrats will dole out more cash to them.

Well, Tom, it looks like you're right, at least this time: all the issues stuff is on the back burner, and people are concentrating on the money. Which is why your guy is going to get in the neck on November 4.

Posted by: Brown Line at May 31, 2012 09:31 PM (29pYQ)

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