August 31, 2010

Murky Grabs 343 Net Votes In First 2,391 Absentees
Update: But Was That From a Murky Stronghold in Anchorage?
Joe Miller Camp Says This Is Good News

— Ace

Update: Oh, God.

Murkowski netted 343 votes in first 2,391 absentees. 57%.

At that rate, she will net just enough votes to overtake Miller.

Update: cinyc writes:

The Alaska Daily News reports the first batch came from HDs 17-26 in Anchorage, which went 53-47 Murkowski on election night. So she ran about 4 points ahead of her election night tally in those votes. That alone probably wouldn't put her over the top. But we need to see how the Miller strongholds voted before concluding anything.

Is That The Strongest Punch You've Got? The Miller camp says it reads this as a positive thing -- if those numbers come from a Murky stronghold and that's all she could eke out, maybe he'll be okay.


They've begun counting the 15,000 (or more) uncounted ballots in Alaska.

The Alaska Division of Elections said it expects to count 15,272 absentee, questioned and early ballots Tuesday. They're part of at least 25,500 outstanding ballots that remain to be counted one week after Miller stunned political watchers by nearly upsetting Murkowski.

The delay in vote counting is not unprecedented.

Alaskans two years ago also were kept in suspense waiting to find out who would capture the state's other U.S. Senate seat.

A week after Election Day in November 2008, roughly 30 percent of the vote -- about 90,000 ballots -- had not been counted in the race between incumbent Republican Ted Stevens and his challenger, Democrat Mark Begich.

Stevens, who died earlier this month in an airplane crash, led Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, by 3,257 votes. Begich prevailed when the early, absentee ballots and questioned ballots were tallied.

Votes trickle in slowly from "the bush."


And Mike Pence has a guy helping Miller out:

Hm. . RT @mattklewis: RT @RickKlein: Intriguing 2010/2012 tidbit: @RepMikePence has a press staffer up in Alaska helping @JoeWMiller #AKSEN

Yeah he's running.


Posted by: Ace at 10:09 AM | Comments (396)
Post contains 366 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Why would the results of the "questionable" ballots be much different than the election night ballots?

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:13 AM (bAySe)

2 Palin fan? So if I have this straight, I'm supposed to consider Palin, but you wouldn't consider anyone else? Do I have that right?

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:13 AM (QbA6l)

3 After first posting of absentee ballots, Miller by 1335.

Posted by: Countrysquire at August 31, 2010 10:13 AM (tX0bg)

4 *heart attack time*

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:15 AM (bAySe)

5

My man, Mike!

He's not bombastic. And perhaps not inspirational.

And I don't give a damn about any of that.

He's principled. He's loyal. He's hardworking. And he seems to be on the right side of every single issue.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 31, 2010 10:16 AM (93xxO)

6 Palin fan? So if I have this straight, I'm supposed to consider Palin, but you wouldn't consider anyone else? Do I have that right?

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:13 PM (QbA6l)


Though I might like Palin, it doesn't have anything to do with my comment. Dude just doesn't do anything for me. Something about him just bores the shit out of me

Posted by: fartbubble at August 31, 2010 10:16 AM (gAmQ1)

7
Yeah but Pence is really running for the veep slot on the ticket. No House Rep is gonna get far in the primaries and he knows that.


Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:16 AM (uFokq)

8 "who died earlier this month in an airplane crash"

grotesque insertion, having nothing to do with the electoral process

Posted by: The Public Is Unamused at August 31, 2010 10:17 AM (H+LJc)

9 Dude just doesn't do anything for me. Something about him just bores the shit out of me.

I've heard that all before during the '08 primaries from Mittens.
 

Posted by: The Public Is Unamused at August 31, 2010 10:18 AM (H+LJc)

10
Sorry, Mike, but 2012 is the year of the experienced executive. No neophytes need apply.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:18 AM (uFokq)

11

Something about him just bores the shit out of me

Boring is fine when you consider the alternative.

Hell, he can make boring his platform for all I care as long as he shows that boring still trumps incompetent any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 31, 2010 10:19 AM (93xxO)

12 Uhhhh, does "...by nearly upsetting Murkowski" strike anyone else as odd?

Posted by: dogfish at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (fco8b)

13 This has me so angry, I'm seeing red!

Posted by: andycanuck at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (3phFo)

14 Why is this thread red?

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (p302b)

15 Pence seems to be on the right side of every single issue. -- Posted by: laceyunderalls

On your recommendation I'll accept that, not having followed his record.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (H+LJc)

16 Wow, I didn't know Stevens had that big of  a lead when he ended up losing..Yikes, I thought 1668 was a good lead. Obviously not. Nail    biting time....

Posted by: Donna at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (A77nn)

17 >>>Sorry, Mike, but 2012 is the year of the experienced executive. No neophytes need apply. Right, the 22-month governors, we'll run on experience.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:20 AM (QbA6l)

18 Murkowski netted 343 votes in first 2,391 absentees. 57%. What? What's the matter? Don't look at me.

Posted by: The NRSC at August 31, 2010 10:21 AM (AZGON)

19 [But I got better.]

Posted by: andycanuck at August 31, 2010 10:21 AM (3phFo)

20 I'll crash into a severe depression if Miller loses.

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:21 AM (bAySe)

21

Sorry, Mike, but 2012 is the year of the experienced executive

So I guess that takes Palin out of the running?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 31, 2010 10:22 AM (93xxO)

22 a lot of regular folks are trying to make this race a sort of referendum on Sarah palin....he wins palin has power, he loses palin is no longer a "kingmaker"

makes me think those regular folks are mittens fans...

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:22 AM (p302b)

23
Palin isn't running, either, Ace.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:22 AM (uFokq)

24 Well, I guess Miller did peak sort of late, You never know though. He could still pull it out. It almost seems it would be better to be behind in these races.The leaders seem to rarely win.

Posted by: Donna at August 31, 2010 10:23 AM (A77nn)

25 I like your style, Murk. Call me and I'll also give you some tips on tax evasion.

Posted by: Al Franken at August 31, 2010 10:23 AM (AZGON)

26
Yes, for the tenth time, Palin is not running for president in 2012 or 2016 or ever. Forget about it.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:23 AM (uFokq)

27 I've heard that all before during the '08 primaries from Mittens.

Posted by: The Public Is Unamused at August 31, 2010 03:18 PM (H+LJc)


I'll take Pence over Rommey but that isn't saying much. Rommey is semi-functional retard

Posted by: fartbubble at August 31, 2010 10:23 AM (gAmQ1)

28 I like Mike Pence. He's a whole lot better than some on the Republican side....

Posted by: Donna at August 31, 2010 10:24 AM (A77nn)

29 It wasn't vote tampering-vote tampering.

Posted by: Whoopi Goldberg at August 31, 2010 10:24 AM (VmtE9)

30 if miller doesn't win, a lot of people, regular joe's and jane's are paying attention.  It will only hurt the republican party as the perception would be that there was monkey business.  "So if the republican party stoops to monkey business too...then they are no better than the dems, right?"  I know you guys don't want to hear this but this is what "the folks" will be thinking and it will frame their future vision of the republican party.  so this alaska race may have more ramifications and repercussions than just a sitting republican keeping her seat for now.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:24 AM (p302b)

31 Perhaps the new rule of thumb from here on out is: If any electoral race is closer than 2% when the polls close, the more liberal candidate automatically wins.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 31, 2010 10:25 AM (AZGON)

32 curious, "trying to make this race a sort of referendum on Sarah palin" is what you just did.

An endorsement from a celebrity is nothing more than that. It isn't as if the candidate hasn't his own qualifications that attract support/votes/attention.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:25 AM (H+LJc)

33

On your recommendation I'll accept that, not having followed his record.

I'm an unabashed Pence fangirl, so don't just take my word for it, read up on him.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 31, 2010 10:25 AM (93xxO)

34 So it seems whenever when there is a close race, the candidate who edges out the other always ends up being the loser in the end.  I never knew counting ballots was so fucking hard.

Posted by: Ken Royall at August 31, 2010 10:25 AM (9zzk+)

35 Don't go all wobbly on us now Ace.

Posted by: Maggie, The Iron Lady at August 31, 2010 10:25 AM (iYbLN)

36

I may be jaded by the process living in Seattle but it seems that everytime a race is close and they start counting the ballots that for whatever reason they claimed they couldn't count with the rest of them, my candidate loses.

I only had one year of statistics but as I remember it things just shouldn't work out that way.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 10:26 AM (fwSHf)

37 RINO power activate!

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at August 31, 2010 10:26 AM (4JpPD)

38 Ace, I half expected you to say   GULP... ala Allahpundit!

Posted by: Donna at August 31, 2010 10:26 AM (A77nn)

39

Palin isn't running, either, Ace.

I agree(d). Until yesterday when I saw she was making a trip to Iowa later next month.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 31, 2010 10:27 AM (93xxO)

40 Remain calm all is well!

http://tinyurl.com/c62hqt

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:27 AM (AQxTm)

41 What regions/districts are these votes coming from?

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:27 AM (bAySe)

42 Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 03:25 PM (H+LJc)

yes but there were little articles and comments here and there about how palin was treading lightly in this race but endorsing miller none the less. 

If you think they will remain quiet about this I think you are mistaken.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (p302b)

43

Murky felt like the absentees would help her, because Miller was largely unknown until the very end--after the absentees had already cast their ballots.

Crap.

Posted by: rdbrewer at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (LutGd)

44

Stay positive, have faith in the process,

and pray.

Posted by: Bosk at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (pUO5u)

45 Ahem.... not to be a dick or anything but, ah... Yeah, the Libertarian Party would probably take a candidate who opposed TARP. Just puttin' that out there. The media are asking about a Miller run on the libertarian side in AK.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (QbA6l)

46 Wait...Murky nets 343 of almost 2400 counted absentee ballots, assuming the remainder went for Miller, and if that math holds she'll overtake Miller? Someone please splain' that math to me cuz I just don't see how that will work...

Posted by: FreedomFighter at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (jfOwL)

47
What regions/districts are these votes coming from?

King County, WA and Moscow, USSR, I believe.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (uFokq)

48 >43 What regions/districts are these votes coming from?


The retarded ones.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 10:28 AM (Y81Xa)

49 It's from the foul morons at SSP, but it looks like the first batch may have been from the more Murkowski friendly Anchorage area:

3:16pm: It's not yet clear where this batch of votes came from, but ADN reported that the first batch of results was expected to come from the Anchorage area, where Murkowski ran strongly. More votes are expected from the Mat-Su and Fairbanks regions later today, which are more Miller-friendly.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 10:29 AM (RC7LR)

50 Pence seems to be on the right side of every single issue.

Except amnesty. 

Posted by: Jon at August 31, 2010 10:30 AM (Xt7UU)

51 The Alaska Daily News reports the first batch came from HDs 17-26 in Anchorage, which went 53-47 Murkowski on election night.  So she ran about 4 points ahead of her election night tally in those votes.  That alone probably wouldn't put her over the top.  But we need to see how the Miller strongholds voted before concluding anything.

Posted by: cinyc at August 31, 2010 10:30 AM (GQdQu)

52 >>>Wait...Murky nets 343 of almost 2400 counted absentee ballots, assuming the remainder went for Miller Bad assumption. "Net" means that she got 343 more votes than Miller out of the bunch.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:30 AM (QbA6l)

53
Well, Ace, you do realize you're sacrificing a Senate seat just to spite Murkles?

I'm okay with that...if it was AZ not AK.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:30 AM (uFokq)

54 Someone please splain' that math to me cuz I just don't see how that will work...

"Net" means she got 343 more votes than Miller out of the 2400 counted, not that she got 343 total out of the 2400.

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 31, 2010 10:30 AM (poAzP)

55 Rommey is semi-functional retard

FROM Mittens, not FOR Mittens

Mittens are Mitt Supporters, not Romney himself. They said it against Teh Fred, voting on acid indigestion instead of platform.

I wouldn't describe Mitt as dysfunctional. Rather, he's a plastic-malleable socialist.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:31 AM (H+LJc)

56 Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 03:30 PM (uFokq)

geez ace has way more power than I thought?  he's not just a blogger?  Does he do it with his mind? 

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:31 AM (p302b)

57 Why would the results of the "questionable" ballots be much different than the election night ballots?

A lot of the outlying districts are dirt poor, native Alaskan.  They like the pork.  The Stevenses and Murkowskis of the world are a gravy train, because that wins them votes out there.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at August 31, 2010 10:31 AM (5aa4z)

58 No more negative waves!

http://tinyurl.com/b3cdol

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (AQxTm)

59 RS McCain is on the scene.  He says the first batch came from Anchorage, which is Murkowski territory.  Inland absentee ballots, which are supposed to be Miller-friendly, will be counted later today.

Posted by: mrp at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (HjPtV)

60 "Rommey is semi-functional retard" Presumably that means you are brighter than he is? Then you should be running. I've never found anything lacking in Romney's intelligence or his effectiveness in dealing with extremely complex systems like international corporations.

Posted by: Lincolntf at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (hV/FZ)

61 Just puttin' that out there.

The media are asking about a Miller run on the libertarian side in AK.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:28 PM (QbA6l)

Greta asked him if he would run on the libertarian ticket last night and he dodged the question. He anserwed by saying the libertarians voted not to accept Murky.

Not sure how I feel about that. I would gues I would have to stay consistant and say if you lose the primary get on the bus behind the candidate that won.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (fwSHf)

62
At that rate, she will net just enough votes to overtake Miller.

Imagine that. 

Thanks a lot Cornyn, you shitbird.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (fx8sm)

63 GO MILLER, GO!

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (bAySe)

64 Yes, for the tenth time, Palin is not running for president in 2012 or 2016 or ever. Forget about it.

Wow. What's she going to have for breakfast tomorrow?

Posted by: The Mega Independent at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (F5Uas)

Posted by: taylork at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (0Hn5w)

66 cinyc, thanks, very important!

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (QbA6l)

67 Leave Mitt Romney alone!!!

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt under a blanket at August 31, 2010 10:32 AM (AZGON)

68

Wait...Murky nets 343 of almost 2400 counted absentee ballots, assuming the remainder went for Miller

He meant if she continues to take the same percentage of votes per 2400 ballots, I believe.  Obviously if it's a 50/50 split the rest of the way Miller is fine.  However, that's not how it has started.

Posted by: ATaLien at August 31, 2010 10:33 AM (SkRi5)

69

Wait...Murky nets 343 of almost 2400 counted absentee ballots, assuming the remainder went for Miller, and if that math holds she'll overtake Miller? Someone please splain' that math to me cuz I just don't see how that will work...

What's the vote difference between Miller and Murkowski? about 1600

Number of absentee ballots about 13000

so...

343/2400 * 13000 = 1858 net votes for Murkowski.

that means she overtake Miller and wins by about 258 votes.

Miller, I'm sure, will be a stand up man and support Murkowski in the general.

 

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at August 31, 2010 10:33 AM (4JpPD)

70
I think that the Republicans will win with either candidate.

Not if one of them [Miller] is on the (L) ticket.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:34 AM (uFokq)

71 "70 Leave Mitt Romney alone!!!

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt under a blanket at August 31, 2010 03:32 PM (AZGON)"

he can be in charge of fixing the health care mess that will have been created...he's good at stuff like that....running a whole country...not so much...maybe it's the hair I don't know...

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:34 AM (p302b)

72

56"Net" means she got 343 more votes than Miller out of the 2400 counted, not that she got 343 total out of the 2400."

Well fuckity fuck fuck! Reading comprehension for the loss! My bad.

C'mon Miller!

Posted by: FreedomFighter at August 31, 2010 10:34 AM (jfOwL)

73

Of course Palin is running in the sense that every other candidate right now is running.  They are going around the country backing candidates (aka building their state by state support), raising money and judging how strong a candidate they would be.

The only way Palin won't be a candidate is if after this process she determines that she has doesn't have a legitimate shot.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 31, 2010 10:34 AM (VW9/y)

74

Why do I find it hard to believe that its even possible for Alaska to have 15,272 absentee ballots?

 

Posted by: dananjcon at August 31, 2010 10:34 AM (pr+up)

75 Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 03:34 PM (uFokq)

at what point are you going to think about who you are electing instead of "the party" and "how many votes you will have with a win".....like when are you going to think about what the American people want?   Why not give miller a chance, you never know what he can do until you give him a chance.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:35 AM (p302b)

76 see updates

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:35 AM (QbA6l)

77 Palin is speaking in Iowa at Reagan dinner among other things in September.

Posted by: Dan at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (1jzSs)

78 @32, it won't just be "the folks" saying it. I'll be saying it, too!

Posted by: Ella at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (DmnMk)

79
We need a "dirty, low-down ruthless vato" to defeat these scumsuckers. 

Has Mike Pence murdered anyone?  That would raise my comfort level.

Posted by: IreneFingIrene at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (JNqU9)

80 And if my mother had wheels she'd be a dune buggy.

You're saying she's noisy, unsafe and fun?

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (poAzP)

81 Why do I find it hard to believe that its even possible for Alaska to have 15,272 absentee ballots? Posted by: dananjcon at August 31, 2010 03:34 PM (pr+up) Well only 2000 are really Alaska's, the rest are votes for Coleman that Al Franken hid up there in Alaska

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (0GFWk)

82 This post is a roller-coaster of emotions.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (Y81Xa)

83 Why do I feel like the future of western civilization hangs in the balance with this Senate race?

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (bAySe)

84
toby, read #47 again

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (uFokq)

85 Murky's 343 more out of the first 2400 calculated, with at least 21,100 more votes to differentiate.

Miller's odds to win are just as good as hers at this point.


Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (H+LJc)

86 Why do I find it hard to believe that its even possible for Alaska to have 15,272 absentee ballots? Why? Do you need us to print more? Oh, wait. Never mind. Forget we were here.

Posted by: The NRSC at August 31, 2010 10:36 AM (AZGON)

87 #71

Give me the assumptions and I give you the figures you want.

You can not assume across the board that Fairbanks or any other part of AK will vote like Anchorage. 

You could actually make a case that they will NOT vote that way.

Where the fuck is Karl when we need him?

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:37 AM (AQxTm)

88 I don't think McAdams can beat Miller so I don't think Murkowski losing would have that great an effect.  If the tea party folks cost us a place like Delaware or something like they're threatening to do in Nevada though, I'll be pissed.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 10:37 AM (RC7LR)

89 Does Jeff Probst have to read out each ballot? There's got to be a better way...

Posted by: t-bird at August 31, 2010 10:37 AM (FcR7P)

90 Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 03:25 PM (H+LJc)
 
Miller pretty much acknowledged that SP's endorsement gave him the push he needed to have a chance.
 
Ace, the same thought had already crossed my mind that if Miller gets inched out here, he would make a GOOD choice for the Libertarian ticket.
 
Unlike MoaningLisa.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2010 10:37 AM (h0RtZ)

91
I'm waiting for Strother Martin to show up in this thread.


Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 10:37 AM (uFokq)

92

Isn't it fucking weird that we're doing counting, predictions, and prognostications based on state geography...IN A GOP PRIMARY??

...but I love this shit anyway!!!

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 10:38 AM (AnTyA)

93 Why do I find it hard to believe that its even possible for Alaska to have 15,272 absentee ballots?

I can imagine that there would be at least that many voters living out in Alaska's sticks, making arrangements to mail a vote rather than drive/fly the distance to the voting booth.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:38 AM (H+LJc)

94 This is exactly why polls are teh ghey.  They all said that Miller was going to get trounced.  Just like the exit polls in '04.  Kerry was torching Bush.....

We asked 435 people living under rocks if they like ice cream.  200 said yes, so 46% of all Americans LOVE ice cream.

Posted by: Sponge at August 31, 2010 10:38 AM (UK9cE)

95 Serenity Now!

Posted by: toby928 at August 31, 2010 03:23 PM (S5YRY)

God grant me the serenity to accept things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

Given that there is now no way to change how people voted, I'd say what's called for is indeed serenity -- plus maybe the courage to send Miller a few bucks to monitor the counting and to fund a recount if one becomes necessary.

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 10:38 AM (7AOgy)

96 I would gues I would have to stay consistant and say if you lose the primary get on the bus behind the candidate that won.

If the bus ran you down, which Miller will have good reason to believe happened if he finds himself lying on the road with tire tracks all over him at the end of today, it's not wrong-wrong to bomb it.

Posted by: oblig. at August 31, 2010 10:39 AM (x7Ao8)

97

Reuters has Toomey up by 47-37..

...maybe Sestak would have been better off taking the job and keeping his yap shut

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 10:40 AM (AnTyA)

98 #98

Good point!  I am not driving, flying etc to the poll when its 200 miles away.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:40 AM (AQxTm)

99 I'm not coming near this place. Too cold in Alaska. Now get back to the chain gang.

Posted by: Strother Martin at August 31, 2010 10:40 AM (AZGON)

100 What the hell are you talking about stuiec?

Posted by: Al Franken's Dead Voters at August 31, 2010 10:41 AM (UEJ97)

101 "If the bus ran you down, which Miller will have good reason to believe happened if he finds himself lying on the road with tire tracks all over him at the end of today, it's not wrong-wrong to bomb it." And the conservative ACORN is born!!! Get on the bus!!!

Posted by: Lincolntf at August 31, 2010 10:41 AM (hV/FZ)

102 "Fairbanks is to start counting at 1 p.m."
That's 5pm EST.

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 10:41 AM (bAySe)

Posted by: maddogg at August 31, 2010 10:42 AM (OlN4e)

104 I think the more tanned candidate ought to prevail.

Posted by: Charlie Crist at August 31, 2010 10:42 AM (AZGON)

105 GnuBreed at August 31, 2010 03:37 PM

Yes, of course she was an influence.  Would Palin's fan base take responsibility however Wilson's election results turn out?

Wilson's election is about WILSON, not about Palin. Only those bent all out of shape either for/against Palin make Wilson's candidacy all about Palin. 

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:42 AM (H+LJc)

106

"Rural" Alaska gives a whole new meaning to the word rural. It's a huge state that has hundreds of towns and villages that are not accessable by car.

Posted by: Bosk at August 31, 2010 10:42 AM (pUO5u)

107 107 "Fairbanks is to start counting at 1 p.m."
That's 5pm EST.

Getting out the popcorn!

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:43 AM (AQxTm)

108 A Miller ballot. Now you see it, now you don't!

Posted by: David Counterfield at August 31, 2010 10:44 AM (F5Uas)

109 "Fairbanks is to start counting at 1 p.m." Well, good for them! And people said "No Child Left Behind" wouldn't work...

Posted by: Lincolntf at August 31, 2010 10:44 AM (hV/FZ)

110 I'm waiting for Strother Martin to show up in this thread.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 03:37 PM

I'm waiting for Criswell to show up. And Nostradamus. They'll have the answers....

I also wonder what Palin will do if The Murk wins. Will she suck it up and endorse the winner, or stay silent and sulk?

No matter what, I expect Palin's all-volunteer Rapid Response Excuse Team to swing into action.

All the while, the Dem candidate's team is busy assembling tape and quotes from Miller v. Murk to show voters what an incredible bunch of tinfoil-hat conspiracy bumblers and unprincipled party-jumpers the Repubs really are....

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 10:44 AM (Ulu3i)

111 Fairbanks should be a big win for Miller. It's his hometown along with military bases nearby.

Posted by: Bosk at August 31, 2010 10:45 AM (pUO5u)

112 If Miller wins, I hope he gets his next ad by Ladd Ehlinger, Jr.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:46 AM (H+LJc)

113 #116

Going to store to get more pudding!

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:46 AM (AQxTm)

114 Confirmed: Putin will run in 2012

Posted by: ingenus at August 31, 2010 10:46 AM (+sBB4)

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 10:46 AM (7AOgy)

116

i've crapped myself.

i hope miller wins by more than 400-600 votes, if not it will trigger an automatic recount.

Posted by: Men Without Hats at August 31, 2010 10:47 AM (wuv1c)

117 OT, John Cusack tweets in to say: "I AM FOR A SATANIC DEATH CULT CENTER AT FOX NEWS HQ AND OUTSIDE THE OFFICES ORDICK ARMEYAND NEWT GINGRICH-and all the GOP WELFARE FREAKS" And I just want to add that I am outraged at what Rick Sanchez said yesterday, using a phrase that racism profiteers deem offensive (when convenient).

Posted by: t-bird at August 31, 2010 10:47 AM (FcR7P)

118 #117

True that and he starts dressing like he's straight.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:47 AM (AQxTm)

Posted by: George Orwell at August 31, 2010 10:47 AM (AZGON)

120

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 03:46 PM (7AOgy)

Wouldn't that then be five?

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 10:48 AM (AnTyA)

121

Fairbanks is to start counting at 1 p.m."

 

1pm our time or crazy alaskan time?

Posted by: Men Without Hats at August 31, 2010 10:49 AM (wuv1c)

122 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

Posted by: gus at August 31, 2010 10:49 AM (Vqruj)

123 Also, Toomey up by 10 points over Sestak here in PA according to the latest poll

Posted by: Men Without Hats at August 31, 2010 10:50 AM (wuv1c)

124 I am not driving, flying etc to the poll when its 200 miles away.

If it would help get these commie bastards out of office I'd fucking swim the 200 miles.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at August 31, 2010 10:50 AM (554T5)

125 128 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

Posted by: gus at August 31, 2010 03:49 PM (Vqruj)

No.

Posted by: maddogg at August 31, 2010 10:50 AM (OlN4e)

126 110 muse,
 
Sure they would...the polls had Wilson way down so even a close showing is a victory of sorts. I am not a Palinista either, just talking about Miller saying she had a big influence.
 
On a side note about Miller & LP, if it was ok for Lisa to explore this option, why is it suddenly NOT ok for Miller to do the same? Are his cooties full of bad mojo?

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2010 10:50 AM (h0RtZ)

127 What the hell are you talking about stuiec?

Posted by: Al Franken's Dead Voters at August 31, 2010 03:41 PM (UEJ97)

Well, unless you are going to raise an army of the undead to cast posthumous and pre-postmarked ballots for Miller, there's no current way to increase his vote tally.  So the best course of action is to be serene but vigilant and make sure that Miller has the resources he needs to watch the vote counting and keep it honest.

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 10:50 AM (7AOgy)

128

 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

no. i don't.  have they ever been?

i guess maybe when the House voted the Senators in, there was no way of cheating.

Posted by: Men Without Hats at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (wuv1c)

129 128 "Remember the good old days when elections were clean?" Nope.

Posted by: Herodotus at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (hV/FZ)

130 If it's not obviously a steal, of course Palin would endorse Murky.  She actually donated to Murky's re-election campaign before Todd's friendship with Miller got the latter a shot.

Posted by: someone at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (DfAwB)

131 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

lol

Posted by: Zombie JFK at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (poAzP)

132 This shit is depressing I'm going back to zero hedge.

Posted by: evil libertarian at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (3nX/9)

133 Confirmed: Putin will run in 2012


The first reason I can't support Palin for potus. "Oh Joe, say it ain't so" hardly wins a debated negotiation with Putin.

/morons need not say that if she were elected, I wouldn't support her as I did Bush while he served.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:51 AM (H+LJc)

134 >>>. If the tea party folks cost us a place like Delaware or something like they're threatening to do in Nevada though, I'll be pissed. Yeah, unless someone does a hell of a job convincing me otherwise, I'm endorsing Mike Castle tomorrow. You guys know who Christine O'Donnell is, right? She's a fill-in guest on like Hannity and stuff. She always seems unprepared, strident. I always turn her off. I do not see her wearing very well. Delaware is the most Democratic state in the union and we've got an R winning by double-digits, and we're going to look that gift from God all askew and ask "can't you get us something better?" I think she has zero chance of winning, by the way. If she turns me off -- and i"m on her side -- I can't see her winning a statewide election in very blue Delaware.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:52 AM (QbA6l)

135 Palin fan? So if I have this straight, I'm supposed to consider Palin, but you wouldn't consider anyone else? Do I have that right?

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:13 PM (QbA6l)

As a point of comparison, WaPo's Who Runs Gov? says about Mike Pence:

radio roots

chair of the Republican Study Committee (RSC)

popular guest on television and radio

knows how to use a press conference to his advantage

nickname "Rush Limbaugh on decaf” 

House GOP Conference chairman

As the face of a new House GOP leadership, Pence is charged with resurrecting Republicans’ battered brand and trying to sell it to a broad swath of voters. The new role seems tailor-made for the media-savvy Republican, who has challenged the party leadership in the past. 

Pence was first elected to Congress with 51 percent of the vote in 2000, and has been reelected easily since. He was named "Conservative of the Year" by Human Events in 2007.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 10:52 AM (mHQ7T)

136 She actually donated to Murky's re-election campaign before Todd's friendship with Miller got the latter a shot.


covering all bases

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 10:52 AM (H+LJc)

137 128 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

Posted by: gus at August 31, 2010 03:49 PM (Vqruj)

Yeah I remember, so does Ole Mayor Daily and LBJ.

Yeah, that's it we didn't cheat.




Posted by: John Kennedy at August 31, 2010 10:52 AM (AQxTm)

138 How is it that these elections are ALWAYS neck and neck and it comes down to shady ballots to decide the final outcome???

ARE people that STUPID in this country? ( dont answer that)

She should have lost by 20-30 percent....WTF!!!?????

Posted by: PISSED at August 31, 2010 10:52 AM (Rj+sE)

139 Remember the good old days when elections were clean? Posted by: gus at August 31, 2010 03:49 PM

When was that?

Not in my lifetime, anyway. The difference is "instant news" and easy means to broadcast details of every shenanigan to the entire world. At heart, the current elections are no more -- and no less -- corrupt than any big-city, state or national election in the country's history.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 10:53 AM (Ulu3i)

140 I have it on good authority that Palin is considering running.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 10:53 AM (Y81Xa)

141 Also, Toomey up by 10 points over Sestak here in PA according to the latest poll Posted by: Men Without Hats

Is that before or after the New Black Panthers show up?

Posted by: mpfs, Thesaurus Rex at August 31, 2010 10:53 AM (iYbLN)

142 Sarah Palin seems to be doing a better job selling the conservative brand, butI know ace hates her cuz she's a quitter.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 10:53 AM (mHQ7T)

143

Wouldn't that then be five?

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 03:48 PM (AnTyA)

Depending on one's worldview, yes, it would.  I don't know what Israeli law says about killing a child in its mother's womb and whether that's regarded as manslaughter, murder or simply bodily injury to the woman.  However, I do know that any civilization worthy of the label regards murdering a pregnant woman as especially heinous (as the Law & Order: SVU opening credits put it).

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 10:54 AM (7AOgy)

144 I have it on good authority that Palin is considering running.
Posted by: Dr. Spank

Having her tell you that while in bed with you in your dreams doesn't count Dr. Spank.

Posted by: mpfs, Thesaurus Rex at August 31, 2010 10:54 AM (iYbLN)

145 ... OK Math isn't my strong point but isn't 343 out of 2391 like 14%?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 31, 2010 10:54 AM (61b7k)

146

murky needs all the recount to break this way ...  not going to happen ...

Stevens got hammer by the trial and alot of those early and absentee voters went against him ...  not the same situation with Miller ...

Posted by: Jeff at August 31, 2010 10:55 AM (A3tpD)

147 147 I have it on good authority that Palin is considering running.

Her and 20 others.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:55 AM (AQxTm)

148  Palin fan? So if I have this straight, I'm supposed to consider Palin, but you wouldn't consider anyone else? Do I have that right?

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:13 PM (QbA6l)

Will you consider Mike Huckabee.

He's a great guy and plays the bass.

Posted by: Ikemay Uckabeehay at August 31, 2010 10:55 AM (wuv1c)

149

TIs That The Strongest Punch You've Got?

Thank goodness.  I hadn't thought about the origin of ballots.

Is it time to start soaping each other's backs yet?

 

Posted by: rdbrewer at August 31, 2010 10:55 AM (LutGd)

150 Having her tell you that while in bed with you in your dreams doesn't count Dr. Spank.

Don't believe anything a woman says in bed.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz with the giant member at August 31, 2010 10:55 AM (5aa4z)

151

I will not vote for Palin in the primaries.

we don't need another on the job learning experience.

She's a good person, but i just don't want her run in 2012.

Posted by: Ikemay Uckabeehay at August 31, 2010 10:56 AM (wuv1c)

152 >>>Sarah Palin seems to be doing a better job selling the conservative brand To believe this, you would have to have ignored every poll showing public antipathy towards her and doubts about her competency (even 40% of Republicans doubt the latter), as well as the PPP poll indicating that Palin turned more voters away from Miller than towards him (35% less likely to 25% more likely, something like that). But I do know that when we speak of Palin such troublesome facts are ignored with a white-hot intensity, and people immediately go back to claiming precisely the opposite of what all objective data indicates. So I guess there is no point in citing facts or data, and won't bother doing so.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:57 AM (QbA6l)

153 Don't believe anything a woman says in bed.

That goes both ways.  I would never put anything but the head in.

Honest.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 10:57 AM (AQxTm)

154 I would rather have Palin represent the country while Putin rules Russia than Obama, Clinton or Biden.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 10:57 AM (mHQ7T)

155 Remember the good old days when elections were clean?

Posted by: gus at August 31, 2010 03:49 PM (Vqruj)

Of course you don't! No one does! It's a stupid question! Forget I even asked!

Posted by: Capt. Rex Kramer at August 31, 2010 10:57 AM (7AOgy)

156 I'd like to hear what Meggie McCain has to say about all of this.  But first, she must finish her pie.

Posted by: Fritz at August 31, 2010 10:57 AM (GwPRU)

157 So my friend is telling me that his NY county has just sent out information about the new voting process.  He's all upset, they are taking away "his nice voting machines" in favor of computer type voting.  he sees this as a way to manipulate the system.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 10:58 AM (p302b)

158 OK Math isn't my strong point but isn't 343 out of 2391 like 14%?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 31, 2010 03:54 PM (61b7k)

Yeah, pretty close. It's also a number that has absolutely nothing to do with the election or percentage of vote she got but it's 14%.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 10:59 AM (fwSHf)

159 Of course, it doesn't help that people scream at me if I post some polling that suggests Palin is far from popular; thus, a feedback loop is created, where I am too cowardly to risk the wrath of angry readers by pushing facts on them, and so I don't, and so readers never even see the data that might make them doubt their position.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 10:59 AM (QbA6l)

160 I can't help but think that even if Ms. Murk wins, the conservative movement that's afoot now will eventually affect the way she conducts herself in the senate.  To have some unknown such as Miller come along and practically snatching the lollipop out of her mouth should send a message to her saying that the times they are a' changn'.  Then again, maybe not.  Damn!  

Posted by: Soona at August 31, 2010 10:59 AM (HQ+h7)

161 I love Sarah, but I don't want her to run.  Not yet anyway.  I don't think she can win. 

Posted by: jewells at August 31, 2010 10:59 AM (l/N7H)

162 163 I'd like to hear what Meggie McCain has to say about all of this.  But first, she must finish her pie.

First she'll have to blow me!





Posted by: Mel Gibson at August 31, 2010 10:59 AM (AQxTm)

163 Christine O'Donnell explains why she, not Mike Castle, is "the reliable Republican". Right Online interview posted July 24, 2010 by Ed Morrissey.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (H+LJc)

164 America, please!

Posted by: Alaska at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (pUfK9)

165

139 This shit is depressing I'm going back to zero hedge.

And then I'm off to watch The Road again

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (9Sbz+)

166 As for Pence, he should have run for Senate.  His 2006 amnesty proposal won't be quickly forgotten.

Posted by: someone at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (DfAwB)

167

Will you consider Mike Huckabee.

He's a great guy and plays the bass.

Posted by: Ikemay Uckabeehay at August 31, 2010 03:55 PM

Let's not get carried away....

I suppose the next step is to consider George Kirby Alan Keyes?

Personally, I'd vote for Mutt Romney, Sarah Palin or Zombie Fred! (if someone gave his presidential aspirations CPR and got him off those reverse-mortgage commercials), but Newtie and Shuckabee are beyond consideration.

If Osama Obama stands for re-election against Newt or Huck, I'd be sorely tempted to write in Gertie the Dinosaur.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (Ulu3i)

168 15,000 primary absentees is not unusual for Alaska.  There were about 11,000 absentees cast in the 2008 Republican primaries. Not all of those reported 15,000 will be Republican absentees, so it looks like we're on course for about 11,000 Republican absentees here, too.

Remember - it's a big state with many voters working odd weeks-on, weeks-off shifts.  Plus, parts of the state don't have accessible early voting.  For example, as I understand it, voters in the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak - Miller strongholds - had to travel to Juneau to cast an early vote. Not surprisingly, no one cast an early vote in the 4 House Districts from that region.  Their "early votes" at local facilities are counted as absentees.  The same can be said for Southeast Alaska outside Juneau and the bush outside Nome, which were Murkowski strongholds.

Posted by: cinyc at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (GQdQu)

169 ... OK Math isn't my strong point but isn't 343 out of 2391 like 14%?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 31, 2010 03:54 PM (61b7k)

Correct: if she got 57% of that group of votes and he got 43%, the difference (the net swing to her) is 14%.

Posted by: Capt. Rex Kramer at August 31, 2010 11:00 AM (7AOgy)

170 I will chuckle silently when each of you must write the words "President Palin".

OK, not so silently. You must blow me.

Posted by: New52% at August 31, 2010 11:01 AM (+sBB4)

171 "readers never even see the data that might make them doubt their position"

Because this is the only site anyone ever reads.

Posted by: someone at August 31, 2010 11:01 AM (DfAwB)

172 From the AK paper:

Joe Miller's lead over Lisa Murkowski narrowed from 1,668 votes to 1,325 with the first count of absentee ballots this morning.

It looks like 2,391 votes were counted in this first batch. They're from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage.

More numbers to come.



Posted by: Vic at August 31, 2010 11:02 AM (/jbAw)

173

To believe this, you would have to have ignored every poll showing public antipathy towards her and doubts about her competency

With the non-stop campaign to destroy her by the media...and all the made up shit that's been thrown at her, I'm surprised she's polling as high as she does..

...how high do you think Ogabe's ratings would be if not for the MFM propaganda?

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 11:02 AM (AnTyA)

174 Palin is popular where it counts, my pants.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 11:02 AM (Y81Xa)

175 I won't vote for Palin*.  She can be head of the RNC, but she's our Howard Dean at this point - for better or worse.

(Though I sure as hell won't vote for the solid B+ Nobel Laureate President - I'll probably sit out in such a scenario)

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:02 AM (RC7LR)

176 I have the post updated with that, Vic. You guys know I update, right? I'm not being snarky; I just don't know if a lot of people know I do this.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:02 AM (QbA6l)

177 But I do know that when we speak of Palin such troublesome facts are ignored with a white-hot intensity, and people immediately go back to claiming precisely the opposite of what all objective data indicates.

Not to pick-nits, but objective data on Palin is hard to find.  She's either the most perfectest, awesomest conservative ever or a complete and total idiot.

My personal opinion is before she can run for president, she has to hold a lesser office and complete at least a full term.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 31, 2010 11:03 AM (FkKjr)

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:03 AM (H+LJc)

179 174

Will you consider Mike Huckabee.

He's a great guy and plays the bass.

NO I've met him, he is a fucking idiot NOT conservative. 

Talks green shit,knows NOTHING about economics. IDIOT!

A Thousand times NO NO NO.  He is also a self righteous preacher.

That clear enough?



Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:03 AM (AQxTm)

180 >>>With the non-stop campaign to destroy her by the media...and all the made up shit that's been thrown at her, I'm surprised she's polling as high as she does.. Oh, it's actually GOOD news, okay, thanks. For a second I thought that 60% of the country doubting her competency was bad news, but I see now, if you compare it what it could have been, then that means she's ahead of the game.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:04 AM (QbA6l)

181 You guys know I update, right? I'm not being snarky; I just don't know if a lot of people know I do this. Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:02 PM

*pats ace on head, pastes teeny gold star on his forehead*

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:04 AM (Ulu3i)

182

To believe this, you would have to have ignored every poll showing public antipathy towards her and doubts about her competency (even 40% of Republicans doubt the latter), as well as the PPP poll indicating that Palin turned more voters away from Miller than towards him (35% less likely to 25% more likely, something like that).

I didn't see the PPP poll. I did see Miller being interviewed regarding Palin and Miller must be a dumb ass because he attributed Palin to putting him over the top.

I also saw the latets gallup (i believe) poll that showed Palin lead among republicans with 75% of the republican vote over all other candidates.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 11:04 AM (fwSHf)

183

I will not vote for Palin in the primaries.

we don't need another on the job learning experience.

She's a good person, but i just don't want her run in 2012.

 

 

I think in the near-term, she'd be an excellent candidate for the chairman of the RNC.

Posted by: Soona at August 31, 2010 11:04 AM (HQ+h7)

184 @beedubya

That's obviously true but what is going to change w/the media as 2012 rolls around.  It'll still be the GOP candidate vs Captain B+ and the press.  The only difference is that the press already has a dozen manufactured hit jobs (and a couple reasonable criticisms) to make of Palin.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:05 AM (RC7LR)

185 Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:59 PM (QbA6l)

Hannity asked her about running last night and she basically said "what's important are the coming midterms".

She then went on to have a very strong appearance, one of the strongest I've seen her have.

Heck, since all the republicans appear to be as quiet as church mice and she seems to be the only one out there saying anything, why not let her do what she does best and worry about whether or not she will make a run after the midterms.

I'm thinking she is having too much fun in her role now and she is making the money to insure that her kids get their PHD, MD or JD if they want them so my guess is she hasn't really even thought about a presidential run.

besides she has her hands full with the bristol/levi situation and with making sure she gives the guy next door plenty of ammunition for his new book.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:05 AM (p302b)

186 >>>Not to pick-nits, but objective data on Palin is hard to find. She's either the most perfectest, awesomest conservative ever or a complete and total idiot There is data on her popularity, whether she is considered "extreme," preparedness, etc. That objective data isn't about her but her electability. But many just blow that off and keep asserting that based upon their own strong feelings from her, gee, she's super-electable. She's not.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:05 AM (QbA6l)

187 I just don't know if a lot of people know I do this. Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:02 PM

Thanks for that.


Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:06 AM (H+LJc)

188
You guys know I update, right? I'm not being snarky; I just don't know if a lot of people know I do this.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:02 PM (QbA6l)

I read the update.  Do I get a gold star?  Of course, I read the update because it was already there when I first saw the thread.  All these early adopting readers get the shaft. 

First!

Posted by: Editor at August 31, 2010 11:06 AM (pUfK9)

189 Oh, and someone needs to tell Newt to STFU and get over himself.  If he runs or worse, gets the nomination, I swear I will go ballistic.

Posted by: jewells at August 31, 2010 11:07 AM (l/N7H)

190 PPP poll indicating that Palin turned more voters away from Miller than towards him (35% less likely to 25% more likely, something like that)

Hot off the presses today, nearly a week after the primary nobody thought he'd win. Rewind to Dr. Charles Krauthammer: "You get the Palin effect then you win it or lose it. Her candidate Miller is going to lose against Lisa Murkowski -- but, we probably aren't going to hear about Miller tomorrow, we probably never heard about him today if he hadn't had her endorsement. She has an interesting effect of being a jumpstarter, but after that your on your own."

PPP: Sixty-five percent of Republican primary voters said that former Alaska Gov. Palin's endorsement of Miller had no bearing on their vote, according to a survey released Tuesday by the liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling. Only 15 percent said the Palin endorsement was very important, while 20 percent said it was somewhat important.

"Sarah Palin can claim credit for putting Joe Miller on the map, but not for carrying him to victory, should he end up prevailing,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "Instead, the story in Alaska is the same as most other places: the winner was better liked than the loser, and his views were seen as more in line with the electorate."

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 11:07 AM (mHQ7T)

191

That objective data isn't about her but her electability.

But many just blow that off and keep asserting that based upon their own strong feelings from her, gee, she's super-electable.

She's not.

Spot on. Just because we are all pissed about what the lying MFM did to Sarah Palin *doesn't* mean the lying MFM wasn't effective. Sadly, they were. Maybe that will change--but not by 2012.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2010 11:08 AM (ujg0T)

192 Will you consider Mike Huckabee.

No, because he is a misplaced compassion conservative.

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 31, 2010 11:08 AM (xxgag)

193 If unemployment is over 9% in 2012, Palin could beat Obama.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 11:08 AM (Y81Xa)

194 Well whatever way this breaks, I am still waiting for Crist to to be attacked by a large flock of seagulls thinking he was some gigantic discarded cheese puff.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at August 31, 2010 11:08 AM (BirNC)

195 Of course, it doesn't help that people scream at me if I post some polling that suggests Palin is far from popular; thus, a feedback loop is created, where I am too cowardly to risk the wrath of angry readers by pushing facts on them, and so I don't, and so readers never even see the data that might make them doubt their position.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:59 PM (QbA6l)

"IS far from popular" does not mean "IS AND WILL ALWAYS BE far from popular".  The political fancies of the American people are fluid: who'd have thought that such a attractive, likeable and well-spoken person as Barack Obama would be so very unpopular at this point in his Presidency?  And who'd have thought that guys like the "unlikeable" Nixon or the "Right-wing fringe fanatic" Reagan would achieve sufficient popularity to win the Presidency -- and then be re-elected by landslides?

As for polls, remember that the polls before the Alaskan primary showed Miller down by double-digits.  Polling is not an infallible gauge of objective reality nor an absolutely reliable predictor of the future.

Posted by: Capt. Rex Kramer at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (7AOgy)

196
I'm going to run tonight after work.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (fx8sm)

197 Geez, Ace, relax.  I remember Reagan vs. Ford and Reagan vs. GHW Bush.  Same kind of snarlfest.  Brutal stuff.  Reagan's speech after Ford's nomination acceptance remarks is a classic "Oh Noes .. we nominated the wrong guy".

Posted by: mrp at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (HjPtV)

198 She's not.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:05 PM (QbA6l)


And people like me keep telling you that the cadre of old white men that republicans think are their only choices aren't electable either.

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (p302b)

199

166  I am too cowardly to risk the wrath of angry readers by pushing facts on them, and so I don't, and so readers never even see the data that might make them doubt their position.

Yeah, I remember when I cited the 2008 campaign book Game Change here.

One takeaway from it is that when the bright lights were on Sarah Palin, she turned from mama grizzly to baby moose. Another takeaway was that even amongst Obama-haters - even amongst birthers - many voted for Obama anyway because they were scared of Palin possibly becoming President.

Some might say the second of these points just means that the electorate isn't smart enough to see Palin's merits. (I for one often say that at least 52% of the country is too dumb to vote.) But then, good luck running on that platform.

What some on here definitely did say was that Game Change was not a reliable source. Facts? No, those are partisanfacts, they make us look silly so we can't use them.

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (9Sbz+)

200 Ace, if you can put us some effin knowledge  that SP is like a poison pill, then please do so. In some races this is most likely true.
 
Do keep in mind one other small additional possibility though -- her name brings in the donations which buys media time.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (h0RtZ)

201 "...and Miller must be a dumb ass because he attributed Palin to putting him over the top." She is whatever the observer wants her to be. That's why people don't ever discuss her policy positions, they just get all wee-wee'd up about what she "appears to be doing" or who she is perceived to be most simpatico with. It's a shadow existence, and she'll have to overcome it if she ever expects to run on the top ticket again.

Posted by: Herodotus at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (hV/FZ)

202 Oh, and someone needs to tell Newt to STFU and get over himself.  If he runs or worse, gets the nomination, I swear I will go ballistic. Posted by: jewells at August 31, 2010 04:07 PM

You trying to make Hannity cry or what?

I suppose I shouldn't complain. If the Daily Newt wasn't part of Sean's show, we'd have a full hour of the host.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:09 AM (Ulu3i)

203 Here's a fact we need to accept: if Murkowski pulls it out, she's our candidate.  That's that.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 31, 2010 11:10 AM (NjYDy)

204 I love Sara, but I am with Ace, she's not electable. 

Two more years is a LONG time.  Fuck Newt. Fuck Huck.  Lots of time to find someone.  Chill.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:10 AM (AQxTm)

205 Tatoo, you should have read further: Overall 35% of primary voters said a Palin endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate while 26% said more likely and 39% said it didn't make a difference either way. Among Miller voters though 41% did say a Palin endorsement was a plus to only 13% who said it was a negative.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:11 AM (QbA6l)

206 If unemployment is over 9% in 2012, Palin could beat Obama.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 04:08 PM (Y81Xa)

Yeah, well, the match-up we're all looking forward to is basilmarceaux.com vs. Obama.  But, the question is, who will be the Green Party Candidate?  Alvin Greene or Hank Johnson?

Posted by: Editor at August 31, 2010 11:11 AM (pUfK9)

207 from HDs 17-26 in Anchorage, which went 53-47 Murkowski on election night. The first batch came from a populous district that was +6 for Murky on election night; given that she didn't win going away - I am going out on a limb and going to say that the rest of the uncounted ballots don't break as favorably for her.

Posted by: Jean at August 31, 2010 11:11 AM (c4rau)

208 That's a survey of R primary voters: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/what-drove-millers-victory.html

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:11 AM (QbA6l)

209 This is just anecdotal, but I don't trust polls and I don't trust exit polling either cause every time I am polled I lie.   And, my friends and I have discussed this and apparently I'm not alone, everyone lies.  People can't stand the pollsters and find them privacy violaters and busy bodies.  so if everyone is lying then what you have are the poll people, those who are flattered that they are being asked their opinion cause they must have no lives and nothing to do with their time.  I'm thinking that those people are more disconnected from reality than ever. 

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:12 AM (p302b)

210 Let's get somebody new in for 2012.  One of Thune/Jindal/Christie ftw.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:12 AM (RC7LR)

211 >>>Here's a fact we need to accept: if Murkowski pulls it out, she's our candidate. That's that. Yeah.... I'm gonna go ahead and, uh, disagree with you hear....? Yeah.... that went out the window when she tried to make a deal with the Libertarian Party... Yeah

Posted by: Bill Lumberg at August 31, 2010 11:12 AM (QbA6l)

212 She is whatever the observer wants her to be. That's why people don't ever discuss her policy positions, they just get all wee-wee'd up about what she "appears to be doing" or who she is perceived to be most simpatico with.
It's a shadow existence, and she'll have to overcome it if she ever expects to run on the top ticket again.

Posted by: Herodotus at August 31, 2010 04:09 PM (hV/FZ)

My point is that if ace is right about these polls and Palin in costing Miller votes Miller has to be a complete retard to align with her and give her credit for his win.

 

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 11:12 AM (fwSHf)

213 If  When unemployment is over 9% in 2012, Palin could will beat Obama.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at August 31, 2010 04:08 PM

FTFY

Posted by: Truck Monkey at August 31, 2010 11:13 AM (yQWNf)

214 Curious, pollsters know that you lie so they put down the opposite of what you say.  It's how they kept M*A*S*H on the air past 1979. 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 31, 2010 11:13 AM (3iMgs)

215 211 Here's a fact we need to accept: if Murkowski pulls it out, she's our candidate.  That's that.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 31, 2010 04:10 PM (NjYDy)


and she's BO's candidate too....

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:13 AM (p302b)

216 Cornyn/Palin 2012

Posted by: John Cornyn at August 31, 2010 11:13 AM (Y81Xa)

217 "Since all the Republicans appear to be as quiet as church mice and she seems to be the only one out there saying anything, why not let her do what she does best and worry about whether or not she will make a run after the midterms."

+ 100

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 11:13 AM (mHQ7T)

218 Alvin Greene or Hank Johnson?
Posted by: Editor at August 31, 2010 04:11 PM

I'd join the Green(e) Party if he was running against the Mohammedan Mouthpiece.

Even a doofus can love his country, and I get the feeling Alvin does. And so do Simon and Theodore.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:14 AM (Ulu3i)

219

And people like me keep telling you that the cadre of old white men that republicans think are their only choices aren't electable either.

Correct.  But people like DeMint, Paul Ryan are electable.  I was a fan of Pence but someone mentioned his stand on amnesty.  I will have to read up on that.  There's always a possibility of a dark horse as well.

Posted by: jewells at August 31, 2010 11:14 AM (l/N7H)

220 I say we nominate a cardboard cutout with a robotic arm that randomly vetoes or signs any bill before it.

Can't be any worse than what he have now.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at August 31, 2010 11:14 AM (BirNC)

221

And people like me keep telling you that the cadre of old white men that republicans think are their only choices aren't electable either.

And you are wrong.  Before Barack Hussein Obama, this country had an unbroken string of electing old white men dating back to its founding.  Hell, a big part of the Obama appeal to many voters was that he was something new and different. 

After seeing how that experiment has worked out the American population will be just fine with electing an old white man if they think he is competent on the single biggest issue that decides most presidential elections, the economy.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 31, 2010 11:14 AM (VW9/y)

222 Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 31, 2010 04:13 PM (3iMgs)

ah but i manipulate my responses so that it would be very difficult to figure out what I actually think and then I play mind games with the guy, it's usually a guy, and I'm certain they ultimately can't use my questionnaire....

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:14 AM (p302b)

223 UPDATE!


REP - 49566
RNO - 48106

Leading by 1460

Joe Miller +37 more votes

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 11:15 AM (bAySe)

224 I'd rather support someone who actually specifies EXACTLY HOW as potus he would cut the size of our federal government.

Palin has her fairy dust referential talking points that glide all over the place without a single stipulation.

At least Ryan has his Road Map, for instance. He talks the talk. God knows if he walks the walk.

Maybe Mike Pence?

My Congressman is reliably conservative, whereas my TX Senators are drunken Republican whores.

I'd rather support a staunchly conservative Congressman than a self absorbed jackass of an elitist RINO Senator.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:15 AM (H+LJc)

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 11:15 AM (9Sbz+)

226 Joe Miller +37 more votes

WOOHOO!

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:16 AM (H+LJc)

227 linky...

www.elections.alaska.gov/results/10PRIM/data/results.htm

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 11:16 AM (bAySe)

228 Ow!  My balls!/Humpbot 2012

Posted by: Editor at August 31, 2010 11:16 AM (pUfK9)

229 Yeah.... I'm gonna go ahead and, uh, disagree with you hear....?

Yeah.... that went out the window when she tried to make a deal with the Libertarian Party... Yeah

We need Republican votes.  If Lisa Murkowski wins the primary, then that means her.  Miller isn't going to run as a third-party candidate either, and if he did then I would attack him for the same reasons I'd attack Murkowski if she did it.  We don't need Scott McAdams (D-AK) possibly occupying this seat for six years, ESPECIALLY when Accidental Senator Mark Begich already occupies the other AK seat. 

Don't be a fucking a moron.  Keep your eyes on the prize.  GOP control of the Senate, and repeal of Obamacare.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 31, 2010 11:16 AM (NjYDy)

230 Zimriel, you illustrate my point.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (H+LJc)

231

O/T: More detail.

The four were two couples – one aged 25 and the other 40. One of the women was pregnant. According to eyewitness reports, the terrorists succeeded in hitting the passengers in their initial fire but then approached the car and shot them occupants at close range.


"When we arrived on the scene, all four doors of the car were open and four bodies were strewn on the road," Magen David Adom paramedic Guy Ronen told The Jerusalem Post. "We saw that the vital organs had been struck by a very large number of bullets, and that there was no chance of saving their lives," he added.

"It was a very difficult scene. We had learned to forget scenes like this in recent years," Ronen said.

The US labeled the deadly shooting Tuesday “a tragedy” while urging both sides not to take steps that would jeopardize direct peace negotiations set to be launched Thursday.

“Any time one human being takes out a weapon and fires and kills other human beings it’s a tragedy,” said State Department spokesman PJ Crowley following the attack, adding that the US still didn’t know the circumstances surrounding the incident.

“We are cognizant that there could be external events that can have an impact on the environment. We also are cognizant that there may well be actors in the region who are deliberately making these kinds of attacks in order to sabotage the process,” he said. “We are very aware that as we go forward in this process, not everyone sees this in the same way, and there are those who will do whatever they can to disrupt or derail the process.”

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (7AOgy)

232 Posted by: JackStraw at August 31, 2010 04:14 PM (VW9/y)

and BO won by getting the young involved....and acting young, he really isn't young he's an old black/white man...

for your republican party to survive you are going to need young people...and you are going to have to abandon the has beens from the last election....and come up with someone knew and interesting and worth the young's time...

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (p302b)

233 4:12pm: A bunch more votes just came in -- we're now at 49,566 for Miller and 48,106 for Murkowski. Miller added 1,515 votes and Murkowski added 1,380.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (RC7LR)

234 Thankfully, it's looking like it won't be a problem.  Miller's gonna pull this out.  Awesome.

I'm not gonna lie, I never thought the dude had a chance in hell.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (NjYDy)

235 I'd better get my nap in before it's pudding time.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (AQxTm)

236

Overall 35% of primary voters said a Palin endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate while 26% said more likely and 39% said it didn't make a difference either way. Among Miller voters though 41% did say a Palin endorsement was a plus to only 13% who said it was a negative.

OK, reality check here. I thought it was *understood* that Palin rallied the base, and why many of us suggested she become RNC Chair!

Of course, the MFM have smeared her in the eyes of the undeclared muddled masses out there, hence her unelectability at least for now.

But the GOP rank and file? This poll does not pass the smell test, Ace.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2010 11:17 AM (ujg0T)

237 Sarah will be there 2012. She's building her platform piece by piece.

Remember how her days in politics was totally over when she stepped down as Governor.

Even if Murky wins this , Palin won.

Posted by: Temper Tantrum at August 31, 2010 11:18 AM (bAL0J)

238 As of 12:04 Alaska time another batch has been counted and Miller added 100 votes back onto his margin.  It now stands at 1,460.  At this rate I think Murky is toast...

You can follow along here (no I don't know how to do html)  elections.alaska.gov/results/10PRIM/data/results.htm

Posted by: Voice of Raisin at August 31, 2010 11:18 AM (CVhf6)

239

.Oh, it's actually GOOD news, okay, thanks. For a second I thought that 60% of the country doubting her competency was bad news, but I see now, if you compare it what it could have been, then that means she's ahead of the game. 

I guess my point is that the perception of her could change...especially if those on her putative side would denigrating her so much....the Frums, the Noonans. the Brooks, etc...the bien pensant

Look at how far Ogabe has dropped...even with the constant media cheerleading. The perception has shifted.



 

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 11:18 AM (AnTyA)

240 I'll admit I actually like the circus show that is Alvin Greene.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:19 AM (RC7LR)

241

After seeing how that experiment has worked ...

Posted by: JackStraw

I agree. But NOT a Harvard Law School Keynesian Socialist!!!

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:19 AM (H+LJc)

242 I have the post updated with that, Vic.

You guys know I update, right? I'm not being snarky; I just don't know if a lot of people know I do this.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:02 PM (QbA6l)

Sorry, didn't see that. I posted it because there were so many questions on the thread about where the ballots came from.

Posted by: Vic at August 31, 2010 11:19 AM (/jbAw)

243

new update

 

US SENATOR (R) REP Total Number of Precincts 438 Precincts Reporting 438 100.0 % Times Counted 98503/487456 20.2 % Total Votes 97672 Miller, Joe REP 49566 50.75% Murkowski, Lisa REP 48106 49.25%

Posted by: unseen at August 31, 2010 11:19 AM (aVGmX)

244 Seriously, people, take that sissy .22 out of your anus.  We got this handled. 

Posted by: Alaska at August 31, 2010 11:20 AM (pUfK9)

245 If the tea party folks cost us a place like Delaware or something like they're threatening to do in Nevada though, I'll be pissed.

Yeah, unless someone does a hell of a job convincing me otherwise, I'm endorsing Mike Castle tomorrow.

You guys know who Christine O'Donnell is, right? She's a fill-in guest on like Hannity and stuff. She always seems unprepared, strident. I always turn her off. I do not see her wearing very well.

Delaware is the most Democratic state in the union and we've got an R winning by double-digits, and we're going to look that gift from God all askew and ask "can't you get us something better?"

I think she has zero chance of winning, by the way. If she turns me off -- and i"m on her side -- I can't see her winning a statewide election in very blue Delaware.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 03:52 PM (QbA6l)

Delaware is the most Democratic state in the union? Not new York or Mass? Vermont?

I saw a link pushing this on Instapundit. If our Betters really think that she should be shunned on the basis of polling, then cancel the asinine primary and annoint him the nominee.

Then they can actually get to work trying to keep the House seat that he's vacating. We're about to see another episode of Delaware politics, where the beautiful people hand off offices to each other. John Carney has exactly two qualifications: He is a regisitered Democrat and he managed to stand near former Governor Ruth Ann Minner without gagging (he was Lt. Governor). And he's going to get the seat, because the Republican party here isn't challenging the same conventional wisdom that you cited. "Castle is there, Carney is invincible, Biden descended from Heaven". The meme is left unchallenged, outsiders get no support from the state party, and then they shrug their shoulders and say, "it's Delaware, what are you going to do"? Castle refused to oppose Biden, as did Pete DuPont. Carper got so serious opposition. Janet Reznicki was an independent woman candidate, pro-abortion, fiscally smart (she was the state treasurer). She got no support when she ran in a primary. Delaware politics are a microcosm of the dysfunctional politics that bred the Tea Party movement.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 11:20 AM (R2fpr)

246 Maybe Mike Pence?

My Congressman is reliably conservative, whereas my TX Senators are drunken Republican whores.

I'd rather support a staunchly conservative Congressman than a self absorbed jackass of an elitist RINO Senator.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 04:15 PM (H+LJc)

When I saw Mike Pence on MTP two or three weeks ago he was a complete idiot. Couldn't answer a question an looked like a retard.

When asked how he would pay for the Bush Tax cuts instead of saying "by cutting spending and this is where" he danced all over the place giving some nonsensicle answer.

The worst part is that the media was asking that same question all week and he and Boner both were totally unprepared for it and gave an embarrasing performance.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 11:20 AM (fwSHf)

247 Murkowski netted 343 votes in first 2,391 absentees. 57%.

I don't understand this statement.  343 is not 57% of 2,391, unless you're a Democrat.  If the number was 1,343 that would make more sense.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at August 31, 2010 11:21 AM (eNxMU)

248 That objective data isn't about her but her electability.

But many just blow that off and keep asserting that based upon their own strong feelings from her, gee, she's super-electable.

She's not.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:05 PM (QbA6l)

If she is so unelectable, then why is it that the candidates she supports win elections?

The mo' nutty the Dems get, the mo' better Palin will look.

After the midterms the Dems will either get smart and try to look centrist or completely lose it and go Maoist. If they do the latter, then Palin gets VERY electable in 2012.

 

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at August 31, 2010 11:21 AM (oIp16)

249 A good point made in a comment at SSP that suggests either Miller or Murkowski should win in a cakewalk as long as they don't go full retard:

It's stunning that 95,000+ GOP voters voted in the closed primary Considering they're 126,486 registered Republicans in Alaska, that's a 75%+ turnout.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:21 AM (RC7LR)

250 Even if Murky wins this , Palin won.

1. Murky was her initial choice who got a financial contribution, itself an "endorsement" of sorts. safe bet

2. "Palin Won" via Murky's win because Palin fans won't see otherwise.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:22 AM (H+LJc)

251 OT somebody tell the sidebar updater that it's spelled "palate".

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 31, 2010 11:22 AM (poAzP)

252  It's all in the margin... (now 1,460)

Anyone figure out how to tell how many remain to be counted?

Posted by: Voice of Raisin at August 31, 2010 11:22 AM (CVhf6)

253 I look better than that hag

Posted by: Toast at August 31, 2010 11:22 AM (+sBB4)

254 #248

Link goes to votes as of August 24th!

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:23 AM (AQxTm)

255 185
what Meggie McCain has to say ?

It's "dirty"

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 04:03 PM (H+LJc)


I saw that AssPounder  AllahPundit linked to that earlier...Obligatory.

Posted by: Hedgehog at August 31, 2010 11:23 AM (oQIfB)

256 There is data on her popularity, whether she is considered "extreme," preparedness, etc.

I don't know if you can say it's objective though.  Polls are easily - and frequently - manipulated to fit a foregone conclusion.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 31, 2010 11:23 AM (FkKjr)

257 I look better than that hag

Posted by: Toast

 

We'll be the judge of that. Butter or jelly?

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 11:24 AM (R2fpr)

258 The value of a Palin endorsement???

Ask Nikki Haley who went from last place in the primary to first after the Haley endorsement.

she is still considered a shoo-in for governor.

But I still don't think she will run in 2012.

Posted by: Vic at August 31, 2010 11:24 AM (/jbAw)

259 what did drudge put up that when you click the link you get "server not found"?

Posted by: curious at August 31, 2010 11:24 AM (p302b)

260 Polls show that 45% of the 40% of Republicans that have apathy toward Sarah also don't know if they were actually thinking of her or Tina Fey.

See how easy this polling stuff is?

Ridiculous.

Posted by: Sponge at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (UK9cE)

261 inyourheadZOMBIE-

This WASN'T a closed primary.  It was open to Republicans and those not affiliated with a party.

So Miller won this next slug of votes 52%-48%.  The question is, where are they from so that we can put things in context.

Posted by: cinyc at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (GQdQu)

262 Butter or jelly?

Butterface

Posted by: Toast at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (+sBB4)

263 @257

x + (x - 343) = 2391

2x - 343 = 2391

2x = 2734

x = 1367

1367/2391 = 0.5717





Posted by: MikeO at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (lBmZl)

264 >>>My point is that if ace is right about these polls and Palin in costing Miller votes Miller has to be a complete retard to align with her and give her credit for his win. Not exactly -- Miller needed a high-profile endorser so people even knew who the hell he was. And he needed that chunk of Palin-lovers to win. the 35% that were turned off by it... well, some of them still voted for him after hearing about him, which was due to Palin (and other high profile endorsees) and a lot of those people are moderates anhd wouldn't have voted for him anyway. Point is, 35% of the party in alaska is turned off by her. This is something that some people simply seem to refuse to acknowledge, or to dismiss it as "those people don't count." Well in the rest of the country it's 40% or higher, among Republicans, and honestly, we do count. You should count us, seriously.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (QbA6l)

265 According to RS McCain, the first count was for the Anchorage district, then the Matsu-Valley, then Juneau (probably Murkowski+ being a government town), and finally Miller's stronghold around Fairbanks.

Posted by: mrp at August 31, 2010 11:25 AM (HjPtV)

266 The value of a Palin endorsement???

Ask Nikki Haley who went from last place in the primary to first after the Haley endorsement.

she is still considered a shoo-in for governor.

But I still don't think she will run in 2012.

Posted by: Vic

 

You forget to mention that I gave her a 'boost' too. Several times in one night IYKWIMAITTYD

Posted by: Will Folks at August 31, 2010 11:26 AM (R2fpr)

267 Kemp, the election was August 24, which is front and center.

However, the updated vote count is as of the time and date in the upper right corner (i.e. 12:04:39 on 8/31/10).


Posted by: Voice of Raisin at August 31, 2010 11:26 AM (CVhf6)

268

Joe Miller's lead over Lisa Murkowski just grew slighly with absentee and questioned ballots from the Mat-Su.

Miller now leads Mukowski by 1,460 votes.

The Division of Elections reported counting 2,895 votes from Legislative Districts 13 through 16 in the Mat-Su.


Posted by: ingenus at August 31, 2010 11:26 AM (+sBB4)

269

I guess my point is that the perception of her could change...especially if those on her putative side would denigrating her so much....Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 04:18 PM

The perception of her could change even more if Palin would actually do something. Every day, she is moving herself more into Limbaugh/Beck territory as a commenter/occasional endorser, and such people, while useful, don't tend to make very good executives.

Facebook posts, tweets and "motivational" (non-issues based) speeches are not enough, particularly when we have a master of the non-specific in the White House right now.

If Palin actually runs for, wins and stays in some elective office that demonstrates an ability to walk the walk, I'll reconsider. If she's only half as smart and effective as her uncritical supporters claim, she'll be damn good.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:26 AM (Ulu3i)

270 274 @257

x + (x - 343) = 2391

2x - 343 = 2391

2x = 2734

x = 1367

1367/2391 = 0.5717

This isn't a test is it?  Call Joe, he knows how to cheat.

Posted by: Barry "the one" at August 31, 2010 11:27 AM (AQxTm)

271 OT somebody tell the sidebar updater that it's spelled "palate".

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 31, 2010 04:22 PM

I meant to do that.  I just wanted to see if you guys were paying attention. 

Not buying it?  Okay.  Artists have to clean their palettes with something?  I thought the video reminded me of turpentine.

Posted by: rdbrewer at August 31, 2010 11:28 AM (LutGd)

272 should win in a cakewalk

RACIST!/

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:28 AM (H+LJc)

273
hahaha, a semi-obscure THE OFFICE sockpuppet!

oh ace magoo, you've done it, again!

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:28 AM (uFokq)

274

for your republican party to survive you are going to need young people...and you are going to have to abandon the has beens from the last election....and come up with someone knew and interesting and worth the young's time...

The youth vote is highly overrated.  Every election it gets trotted out as a key demographic and virtually every year we see "unexpectedly" lower than predicted turnout.  Obama got them out because he was seen as cool which says a lot about how the left projects their racism but they are now running from him in droves.  I look for them to go back to the bong in November of 2012.

The most reliable voters are older voters and they have a strong attachment to old white guys.  Many of them are old white guys.  2012 is going to be decided on perceived managerial competence not rock star status.  Carter gave us boring old white guy Reagan and Obama will do the same.

 

Posted by: JackStraw at August 31, 2010 11:28 AM (VW9/y)

275 @cinyc

thanks for the info

does that mean we're seeing a bunch of potential unaffiliated murkowski voters who might become bitter after a loss?

I really hope Miller is getting his campaign into professional shape and watches his tone and how he handles this potential win.  His first goal the second he wins should be to reach out to Murkowski voters and convince them he's way better than McAdams.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:28 AM (RC7LR)

276 #278
10-4 

Not a very user friendly page, that is for sure.  I could not find total count of absentees, is that hidden somewhere?

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:29 AM (AQxTm)

277

Relax, relax.

There's now almost no chance Murky will end up within even 1,000 votes of Miller.

 

Posted by: TallDave at August 31, 2010 11:29 AM (/s1LA)

278 This isn't a test is it?  Call Joe, he knows how to cheat.

343/2391 = 0.1435

0.1435/2 = 0.0717

0.50 + 0.0717 = 0.5717

0.50 - 0.0717 = 0.4283

57% Murkowski and 43% Miller in the first batch counted.

Posted by: MikeO at August 31, 2010 11:30 AM (lBmZl)

279

Relax, relax.

There's now almost no chance Murky will end up within even 1,000 votes of Miller.

 Posted by: TallDave

Sure... That's what you want us to think.

Posted by: hat by Alcoa at August 31, 2010 11:30 AM (R2fpr)

280 Relax

I can't relax
Because I'm a Boinger

Posted by: The Artists Formerly Known as Deathtongue at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (poAzP)

281 288

Relax, relax.

There's now almost no chance Murky will end up within even 1,000 votes of Miller

So, I don't get my nap and have to start with the pudding dipping?

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (AQxTm)

282
yeah, but what's her OBP?

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (uFokq)

283 Will there be a recount? Is there a limit like if it differs 100 votes they recount?

Posted by: Temper Tantrum at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (bAL0J)

284

Update, 12:20 p.m.:

Joe Miller's lead over Lisa Murkowski just grew slighly with absentee and questioned ballots from the Mat-Su.

Miller now leads Mukowski by 1,460 votes.


 

Posted by: TallDave at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (/s1LA)

285 Ace- Point is, 35% of the party in alaska is turned off by her. This is something that some people simply seem to refuse to acknowledge, or to dismiss it as "those people don't count."

I acknowledge it.  Sarah Palin took on the Stevens-Murkowski Republican machine and whipped them in 2006.  Congressman Don Young isn't a Palin fan, either.  Stevens brought home some serious pork for his pals and Sarah Palin stepped on their wee-wees.

Posted by: mrp at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (HjPtV)

286 she is moving herself more into Limbaugh/Beck territory as a commenter/occasional endorser, and such people, while useful, don't tend to make very good executives.

In delegating, she'd relegate authority.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (H+LJc)

287 I'm part of the 'youth vote'. One thing you can clearly see is many of the rubes in my peer group are starting to grow frustrated with Obama.

Even my liberal friends etc have no real hate towards Romney and the other guys with the exception of Palin: she's unfortunately universally reviled by anybody who's not already in her corner because of the media hit jobs.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:31 AM (RC7LR)

288 The Levi/Bristol situation certainly hasn't, nor will help Sarah.  I know, I know... but it's there and you can't deny it.  Perception is everything.  Many peoples perception of the Palins?  Trash.  I am NOT saying it myself, as I said I love Sarah, but she's got some baggage in the form of her idiot daughter and she is NOT helping her mom a bit by splitting up/ getting back together/ splitting up with that douchebag Levi.  Now she's gonna be on DWTS??  Good grief.

Posted by: jewells at August 31, 2010 11:32 AM (l/N7H)

289

If Palin actually runs for, wins and stays in some elective office that demonstrates an ability to walk the walk, I'll reconsider. If she's only half as smart and effective as her uncritical supporters claim, she'll be damn good.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 04:26 PM (Ulu3i

Actually, I think she should not run for anything at all. Even if her polling does improve, there is still that segment that will do ANYTHING to destroy her. ...and I mean anything

...and you cannot deny that the smear campaign against her has been the worst in recent history..if not ever.

i think for now she is good where she is...PPP polling in AK notwithstanding

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 11:33 AM (AnTyA)

290

most of the 35% against Palin in AK were perfectly happy with her before the campaign of character assasination..

...she had a 90% approval rating before the attacks

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 11:34 AM (AnTyA)

291

I'll reconsider. If she's only half as smart and effective as her uncritical supporters claim, she'll be damn good.
It's not the smart or effective that I like her (in general) for. It's that I have an unusually high confidence that her values (limited gov't, life, pro-America) match mine. Whereas even if the precedent were as smart as he is purported to be, he'd be a disaster, since what he wants to make this country is not what I want to live in.

In other words, competance is secondary; sadly, we first have to weed out the objectively anti-American (as in, less gov't) crowd drawn to public 'service'.

Of course, the general public, at least independant, isn't really as aware of these broad ideological differencese, so the elections come down to confidence of competance. Well, maybe they are on a guy level, with "likeablilty" as a proxy.

Posted by: Randy at August 31, 2010 11:35 AM (zQKSr)

292
We got two years to mentally masturbate these fantasy 2012 presidential candidate picks.


Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:35 AM (uFokq)

293 There is only a recount in AK, if it is less than .5% diff, which in this case is something like 200 votes.

This initial count is excruciating and will go on for a number of days.  Probably know Friday unless Miller gets mathematically beyond the remaining ballots.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 31, 2010 11:35 AM (L8kaT)

294 Sarah probably does a lot of things in the background,  she meets a lot of people traveling around for those "motivational" speaks. Whatever she does, looks like she does it better than mitt "the trucker" romney.

Posted by: Temper Tantrum at August 31, 2010 11:35 AM (bAL0J)

295 jewells

Bristol's in for severely sharp critiques on the celebrity ballroom dance floor.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:36 AM (H+LJc)

296 Ace wrote:

Votes trickle in slowly from "the bush."

Is this a slap at Palin, ace?

Or are you implying that some regions of Alaska don't think with their johnsons?

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:36 AM (Ulu3i)

297 some quick math by ssp folks make it look like we're good even though Murkowski is overperforming:

4:29pm: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the latest batch of absentees came from the Mat-Su valley, specifically House Districts 13 through 16. Crunching the numbers myself, on election day, Murkowski won 38% of the vote in those districts. Among the absentees, she's picking up nearly 48% of the vote -- a much bigger improvement than among the Anchorage absentees, but she still has a long way to go.

Districts 13-16 The Anchorage Daily News reports this latest batch of new ballots was from Districts 13-16 -- the Mat-Su Valley (Palinland).  Miller won 62.12% of the vote in those districts on Election Day, but he only won 52.33% of the new ballots from those districts.  With all of today's ballots, Murkowski is now out-performing her Election Day numbers in all districts that have been counted today by 5.9%.  If that were to continue in all districts across the state, she would need a total of 16,690 new ballots to be counted to pass Miller.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:36 AM (RC7LR)

298 We got two years to mentally masturbate these fantasy 2012 presidential candidate picks.


Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo

 

We're supposed to be doing this mentally?

Posted by: Moron with a new keyboard at August 31, 2010 11:36 AM (R2fpr)

299 Mike Pence?  Hasn't modern history taught us that Congress is just not a great breeding ground for presidents?  It's more likely to produce craven ankle biters like Barack Obama than competent executives.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 11:37 AM (mEyVv)

300

before the attacks

... and before the quitting, and before the daughter's goofiness...

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 11:37 AM (9Sbz+)

301 Oh, it's actually GOOD news, okay, thanks. For a second I thought that 60% of the country doubting her competency was bad news, but I see now, if you compare it what it could have been, then that means she's ahead of the game.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:04 PM (QbA6l)

Is that like Barack Obama saying that people should be happy with 9.5% unemployment because it could have been 12%?

Posted by: Warden at August 31, 2010 11:37 AM (QoR4a)

302

the youth vote comes and goes, but the old farts you will have with you forever.

and no matter how many fall by the wayside they're always replaced by new (old) ones.

Posted by: Tom Servo at August 31, 2010 11:37 AM (T1boi)

303 Ace wrote:

Votes trickle in slowly from "the bush."

Is this a slap at Palin, ace?

Or are you implying that some regions of Alaska don't think with their johnsons?

Posted by: MrScribbler

 

Votes move faster when waxed. For example, a Brazilian wax...........

 

I'll be in my bunk.

Posted by: Moron with a new keyboard at August 31, 2010 11:38 AM (R2fpr)

304 Well in the rest of the country it's 40% or higher, among Republicans, and honestly, we do count.

You should count us, seriously.

Posted by: ace at August 31, 2010 04:25 PM (QbA6l)

I'm not counting or not counting anyone. I am undecided on Palin at this point.

I am just saying that a PPP survey of primary voters is pretty useless. In a primary you have voters who like there own candidates for whatever reason.

Right now you could say that 49% of Alaskan republican primary voters don't like Joe Miller.

Posted by: robtr at August 31, 2010 11:38 AM (fwSHf)

305
2008 was a politically painful year. And it ended with a kick in the balls.

Our primary season sucked. The general campaign was frustrating; McCain was pathetic.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:38 AM (uFokq)

306 Tattoo, you should have read further:

I read the entire poll. PPP's goal was to demonstrate that ideology fueled the election more than Sarah Palin's influence. Among Murkowski voters, she was obviously considered poison. But the majority of voters, once they were introduced to the candidates, were swept up in this "anti-incumbent" sentiment that is sweeping the nation.





Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 11:39 AM (mHQ7T)

307

... and before the quitting, and before the daughter's goofiness...

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 04:37 PM

Not to mention that some of the softball "interviews" she's done -- with Sean "let not your heart be troubled" Hannity, for example -- have been confined largely to vapid generalities, delivered in a voice only a lapsed Hitlery Clinton fan could love.

I'm sorry, but "perky" is not a requirement (or even an asset) for a presidential candidate.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 11:40 AM (Ulu3i)

308

If Palin actually runs for, wins and stays in some elective office that demonstrates an ability to walk the walk, I'll reconsider. If she's only half as smart and effective as her uncritical supporters claim, she'll be damn good.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 31, 2010 04:26 PM (Ulu3i)

You do know why she resigned from the Governorship of Alaska, don't you?  Alaska state law lets private citizens lodge ethics complaints against State elected officials and at the same time requires the officials to pay for the defense against those complaints from their own personal resources.

She was facing legal bills from spurious ethics charges of $500,000 and rising, and she was prohibited from accepting outside donations for her legal defense.  Back then, she hadn't written her book, so she didn't have the cash to pay those bills.

What she accomplished in two years as Governor of Alaska eclipsed the accomplishments of many of her one- and two-term predecessors, both with respect to managing the Legislature and with respect to big executive initiatives like the gas pipeline project to take Alaskan natural gas across Canada to the lower 48.

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 11:40 AM (7AOgy)

309 and you cannot deny that the smear campaign against her has been the worst in recent history..if not ever.

George W. Bush got it far, far worse than she ever did.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 31, 2010 11:40 AM (FkKjr)

310 307 Sarah was the only bright spot in the 2008 elections for me. I confess that I'm loath to let that go.

Posted by: toby928

I wish you would. I wish everyone would.

I like her, too, but the facts are the fact. The media one that battle. They fucking destroyed her and a majority still see her as an incompetent chill-billy buffoon.

But so what? What they did to her was...well, I don't even have a word for how dirty and disgusting it was, but honestly I care a hell of a lot more about getting the presidency back than squaring things up for Sarah Palin.

She's toast. And I don't think she's digging out of that hole. And I don't want to fight 2008 again anyway.

 

 

Posted by: Warden at August 31, 2010 11:41 AM (QoR4a)

311 315

the youth vote comes and goes, but the old farts you will have with you forever.

Posted by: Tom Servo at August 31, 2010 04:37 PM (T1boi)

I don't believe we've met?

Posted by: Obamacare at August 31, 2010 11:41 AM (zQKSr)

312

I have a question.   Why the hell are we even worried about who is going to run in '12?   Jeebus.   We haven't even voted in '10, yet.

There is not one of us that can guarantee who will even be running for Prez.    Besides that, there will be primaries just like there always is.   Vote for whomever you want in those races, but if you're so stupid as to not vote in the general, because your preferred candidate didn't win the primary, then fuck you and the horse you rode in on.

Why don't we just worry about November, and the remaining primaries?   

Posted by: Steph at August 31, 2010 11:42 AM (l6HXu)

313

Posted by: Zimriel at August 31, 2010 04:37 PM (9Sbz+)

She had bogus charge after bogus charge thrown at her...and this was cheered on by the media....what was it 25 ethics complaints, and all 25 shot down

It was costing the family personally to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees...I'd had seen some estimates as high as $600,000....and likely to climb higher if she were to stay in office

...and I believe her when she says is was negatively affecting her abilities in office

Posted by: beedubya at August 31, 2010 11:42 AM (AnTyA)

314

Democrat Party Serenity Prayer


God grant me the serenity to accept the support of interest groups who never learn, the courage to stuff the ballot boxes I can, and the wisdom to let the mass media do my dirty work.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 31, 2010 11:43 AM (P9+0W)

315 -Additionally 34% of primary voters said they thought the Republican Party in general was too liberal and with those folks Miller won 76-24.


Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 11:43 AM (mHQ7T)

316 and you cannot deny that the smear campaign against her has been the worst in recent history..if not ever.

George W. Bush got it far, far worse than she ever did.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk

 

His children were attacked, as were hers. In her case, they were going after children under 10, including an infant. I assert that the campaign against Palin was not new, but that is was a new low.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 11:43 AM (R2fpr)

317 @Steph

We're all excited to kick out a bunch of dems in 2010, but part of these primary battles are essentially proxies for the 2012 Presidential Primary.  I suspect that's why we're seeing so much discussion on that topic.

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 11:43 AM (RC7LR)

318 "I can't relax
Because I'm a Boinger"

Holy crap, somebody else remembers this.

Posted by: someone at August 31, 2010 11:46 AM (DfAwB)

319 #333  Indeed, the question is moot.

And if 2012 doesn't damn you, I'll be waiting...

Posted by: (only) chaos at August 31, 2010 11:46 AM (c0A3e)

320 Haley Barbour is sneaking into a lot of conversations, a strong VP for Brewer or Palin.

Posted by: Jean at August 31, 2010 11:46 AM (64FLT)

321
It's good to make noise about 2012 because it helps steer the GOP in the right direction.

How are they going to know what we want if we don't tell them? The GOP needs to stop giving us who they want and start giving us who we want.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:46 AM (uFokq)

322 His children were attacked, as were hers. In her case, they were going after children under 10, including an infant. I assert that the campaign against Palin was not new, but that is was a new low.

That's only because Bush didn't have any children that were under 10.  There were fantasy documentaries about Bush being assassinated.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 31, 2010 11:46 AM (FkKjr)

323
In other words, Mike Huckabee, if you're reading this...don't even think about running in 2012.

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:47 AM (uFokq)

324 In other senate news:  Republican Pat Toomey has opened a 10-point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak among likely voters in a Senate race in Pennsylvania dominated by economic worries, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.  From Reuters.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 31, 2010 11:47 AM (L8kaT)

325

What she accomplished in two years as Governor of Alaska eclipsed the accomplishments of many of her one- and two-term predecessors, both with respect to managing the Legislature and with respect to big executive initiatives like the gas pipeline project to take Alaskan natural gas across Canada to the lower 48.

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 04:40 PM (7AOgy)

I understand you wanting to try to reach thick heads, but people only see what they want.    No matter what they're not going to like her.   You know, her voice...

Posted by: Steph at August 31, 2010 11:48 AM (l6HXu)

326 Yeah, those numbers were not good for Miller if they came from the Mat-Su.  On the one hand, he ran about 10 points behind his election day tally.  On the other hand, the percentage of votes reported today was higher than the Anchorage group that reported first.  At the end of the day, they don't necessarily cancel out. 

Mat-Su was a bigger Miller stronghold than even Fairbanks.

Murkowski could still pull this out.

Posted by: cinyc at August 31, 2010 11:49 AM (GQdQu)

327 Any one know when the final vote count will be in?

Posted by: ghost707 at August 31, 2010 11:49 AM (BNk7G)

328 #339  That's only because Bush didn't have any children that were under 10.  There were fantasy documentaries about Bush being assassinated.

While Bush was still in office, no less.  First time that ever occurred IIRC.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 31, 2010 11:50 AM (c0A3e)

329 Looks like Miller underperformed in a stronghold (per HA). There is a lot of merit to Murkowski pulling this out due to Millers late surge not helping in the absentees. Hopefully wrong, but I know which way I would bet right about now, sadly. At least she would probably hold the seat.

Posted by: jjshaka at August 31, 2010 11:50 AM (vS8CA)

330 His children were attacked, as were hers. In her case, they were going after children under 10, including an infant. I assert that the campaign against Palin was not new, but that is was a new low.

That's only because Bush didn't have any children that were under 10.  There were fantasy documentaries about Bush being assassinated.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk

Quite plausible. The fact remained that it happened. Also remember that the church she attended was firebombed. That was also new. There were fantasies about her being murdered, others of her being raped (ex: Susie Bright), at least one pron film, and at least two burnings in effigy. This last one is alas, not uncommon.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 11:50 AM (R2fpr)

331 ooooh, This repub lady running for congress in SD on Cavuto right now, Noem, is hawt.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 31, 2010 11:51 AM (L8kaT)

332
If Murkles pulls this out...

will she first ejaculate in our wound?

Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at August 31, 2010 11:51 AM (uFokq)

333 Sarah was the only bright spot in the 2008 elections for me.

I rooted for Teh Fred, even as a neoconservative, because he stood for the Constitution, and for me, he had the right kind of presidential demeanor with foreign dignitaries. Thompson vs. Putin would not place the US at a disadvantage.

But influential Republicans campaigned for youth, presumably for Romney, eventually delivering Obama.

When McCain chose Palin, though she was naive, I rooted for her because she was victimized. But she CHOSE to be. She CHOSE to put her children in that horrible position. I saw her weakness, but chose to hope for the best, staunchly defending her "honor". She quit her job, to mother, which is fine. But she isn't doing scholarly research, choosing to spend her energies spreading herself across the media wrapped up with sensationalism. With her own flair, she's mouthing off as advised by those whom she's chosen to trust. But the only reason they chose to help her is because she's their means to usurp the Tea Party protest. As their deflector, with all the right catch phrases about common sense, constitutional conservatism and smaller government, she represents the very corrupted Republican power mongers that the Tea Party protests.

Since her fans have committed to the deep end because she's their Lorelei, I voice my opinion.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:53 AM (H+LJc)

334 Ace, PPP released a poll July 15 that had Palin tied 46-46 with Obama.

Posted by: the dandy at August 31, 2010 11:54 AM (vJK0V)

335

If the tea party folks cost us a place like Delaware or something like they're threatening to do in Nevada though, I'll be pissed.

Yeah, unless someone does a hell of a job convincing me otherwise, I'm endorsing Mike Castle tomorrow.

fair enough. If people can't accept there are some states where we can't get Joe Millers then you shouldn't be commenting on politics, or more importantly, you should be suprised when no one takes you seriously.

It's like Scott Brown, he is great for Massachusetts and he is the best we can ever hope for out of that state, but if your the person who would prefer a Ted Kennedy or Martha Coakley instead of Scott Brown, then i don't care what you have to say.

There are some states we just need to be greatful for what we can get. If we can't accept Mark Kirk's or Castle's in solidly democratic states, then we're going to be a permanent minority.

You  might get a conservative win in those states, but only in the excecutive, like Christie in New Jersey, you're not going to get a conservative republican senator there.

Posted by: Ikemay Uckabeehay at August 31, 2010 11:55 AM (wuv1c)

336

There's just so much emotional investment in Palin. But let's be honest. She's a politician. And you know what that means? She's compromised in some way. Because that's what it takes to get to a governorship or higher.

I think some people are sorta looking for their One True Savior in the same way that some people looked at Obama.

But that person doesn't exist. You're going to be disappointed every time if that's what you expect in 2012.

And as I've said in previous threads, this emotion is clouding some people's ability to see a golden opportunity. Palin doesn't have to run to beat Obama. She can do it by continuing exactly what she's been doing--throwing bombs at that little shit while advocating for small government solutions for the mess we're in.

If she does this during a presidential election where we're running someone else, President Pitching Wedge is going to have a meltdown. He'll be forced to engage her--the petulant little man-child won't have the discipline to resist. And he's going to get bloodied up.

And the haters will continue to hate Palin, but it won't matter if she's not the one on the ballot. She'll take the arrows while our candidate floats above it all and sticks with a winning message of smaller government and fiscal restraint.

Doesn't anyone see the advantage in this?

I just hope that's her plan.

Posted by: Warden at August 31, 2010 11:55 AM (QoR4a)

337

His children were attacked, as were hers. In her case, they were going after children under 10, including an infant. I assert that the campaign against Palin was not new, but that is was a new low.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 04:43 PM (R2fpr)

I don't remember her children being attacked except for the unavoidable news of an out of wedlock pregnancy , break up, douchebag father, reconciliation, magazine interview, break up and now DWTS.  Its the stuff fiction books are based on except this unfortunately was reality.

Posted by: polynikes

I recall an undocumented OB/GYN questioning the parentage of her youngest child. I also remember a jerk on CNN demanding to know why Palin wasn't staying home with that youngest child. And then there was David Letterman, taking a break from sexual harrassment in the workplace to joke about rape of at lest one of her daughters. When confronted, he shifted his target to an older one.

 

Do you recall any of this?

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 11:55 AM (R2fpr)

338

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 04:53 PM (H+LJc)

 

High minded bullshit.

Posted by: Soona at August 31, 2010 11:56 AM (HQ+h7)

339 polynikes

The whole whose baby is Trig flew over the cuckoo's nest. Her decision not to abort was fresh meat for the MFM talking heads.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:56 AM (H+LJc)

340 341 In other senate news:  Republican Pat Toomey has opened a 10-point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak among likely voters in a Senate race in Pennsylvania dominated by economic worries, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.  From Reuters.

Nice!  The "Hitler poll" kind of agrees, but the lead's only 6%.  I wish it was more, and I don't like that 11% aren't sure, but this is good news for Toomey.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Toomey earning 45% of the vote, while Sestak earns 39% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are not sure.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 31, 2010 11:56 AM (c0A3e)

341 Goes to show ya, Alaskan voters are just as fucked in the head as the voters in the lower 56.

Posted by: Barbarian at August 31, 2010 11:56 AM (EL+OC)

342 ace suggests that palin is unelectable based upon currently polling data.  I would urge ace to recall what mccain's polling data revealed merely a year before the primary season.  I'll give you a hint, pundits were busy writing his political obituary. 

That said, I tend to like palin and hate mccain with the heat of a thousand suns (even though i pulled the lever for him vs. obama), but my point is that polling at this point is meaningless.  Give it time, hold your fire, and keep your powder dry.  She may just pull it off, and if she does, nobody here should question whether she would be an improvement vis-a-vis the one.

Posted by: slackmac at August 31, 2010 11:57 AM (MiOtx)

343 Why do I get the feeling that Mike Pence is about to become the new flavor-of-the-week? I'm still digesting Chris Chramnesty.

Posted by: Herodotus at August 31, 2010 11:57 AM (hV/FZ)

344

There is only a recount in AK, if it is less than .5% diff, which in this case is something like 200 votes.

If that's true, by tonight it should be MILLER TIME!!

Posted by: TallDave at August 31, 2010 11:57 AM (/s1LA)

345

High minded bullshit.

Posted by: Soona

Right back atcha.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:57 AM (H+LJc)

346 Whats the magic number on a recount 0.05%?

Posted by: Jean at August 31, 2010 11:58 AM (Hx1qz)

347

(There is only a recount in AK, if it is less than .5% diff, which in this case is something like 200 votes.

was from Guy Fawkes above)

Posted by: TallDave at August 31, 2010 11:58 AM (/s1LA)

348 Districts 33-35 went big for Miller.  +1500 over Murk.

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 11:58 AM (bAySe)

349 I would urge ace to recall what mccain's polling data revealed merely a year before the primary season.  

Obama won.

Posted by: maverick muse at August 31, 2010 11:59 AM (H+LJc)

350 Stupid sock.

Posted by: Lincolntf at August 31, 2010 11:59 AM (hV/FZ)

351

People I won't vote for in the primaries

Mike Huckabee

Sarah Palin

Ron Paul

 

People I would vote for

Paul Ryan

Fred Thompson

Tim Pawlenty

Haily Barbour

 

People I don't know enough about

Mike Pence

John Thune

Mitch Daniels

 

 

Posted by: Ben at August 31, 2010 11:59 AM (wuv1c)

352

Warden has it. Palin as RNC activist, make that RNC Chair. The whiny bitches of the media can go on hating her, and she can keep on rallying the base, raising funds, and acting as a lightning rod.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2010 11:59 AM (ujg0T)

353 344 Any one know when the final vote count will be in?

Posted by: ghost707 at August 31, 2010 04:49 PM (BNk7G)

 

When Murkowski takes the lead.

Posted by: Vashta.Nerada at August 31, 2010 11:59 AM (naHyH)

354

366

i think it is closer to 400-600 votes.

Posted by: Ben at August 31, 2010 12:00 PM (wuv1c)

355 um, the combined number of votes for Murk+Miller are going to be around 105,000 right?

doesn't that mean 0.5% is ~525?

Posted by: inyourheadZOMBIE at August 31, 2010 12:00 PM (RC7LR)

356 TallDave = Uri Geller?

Posted by: Jean at August 31, 2010 12:00 PM (4WsCU)

357

I don't remember her children being attacked except for the unavoidable news of an out of wedlock pregnancy , break up, douchebag father, reconciliation, magazine interview, break up and now DWTS.  Its the stuff fiction books are based on except this unfortunately was reality.

Posted by: polynikes at August 31, 2010 04:52 PM (m2CN7)

Then maybe you shouldn't have an opinion on Sarah, at all.   There were photoshops all over the net about Trig.   They called him the "r" word, and made many assinine blog posts, etc. about him.   Even some in the MFM even questioned whether he should have ever been born.   They questioned whether she was even a good mother, because she had the audacity to not sit home & be the good little wife & mother.  

Give me a freakin' break.

 

 

Posted by: Steph at August 31, 2010 12:00 PM (l6HXu)

358

"And the haters will continue to hate Palin, but it won't matter if she's not the one on the ballot. She'll take the arrows while our candidate floats above it all and sticks with a winning message of smaller government and fiscal restraint.

Doesn't anyone see the advantage in this?"

I do!  Tell her not to bring up healthcare, though.  It's sort of a vulnerability for me.

Oh, boy, is this going to be great!

Posted by: Mitt Romney at August 31, 2010 12:01 PM (mEyVv)

359 Leftists are now protesting Albert Freakin Pujols !!!

Posted by: ingenus at August 31, 2010 12:01 PM (+sBB4)

360 281 274 @257

x + (x - 343) = 2391
2x - 343 = 2391
2x = 2734
x = 1367
1367/2391 = 0.5717

 Hey! I was distinctly told (by Ace, I think it was) that there wouldn't be any math, or at least, not any really hard math on this topic.....Guy lies like a professional politician

Posted by: alwyr at August 31, 2010 12:01 PM (w2++y)

361

ace suggests that palin is unelectable based upon currently polling data  he was unelectable.  I would urge ace to recall what mccain's polling data revealed merely a year before the primary season that he would lose.  I'll give you a hint, pundits were busy writing his political obituary. he lost

fify

Posted by: Ben at August 31, 2010 12:01 PM (wuv1c)

362 yes, obama won, but who was ace urging people to support?  mccain.  yes, I know he was nobody's first choice, but he was who we were left with.  I'm just trying to suggest that a savvy prognosticator such as ace shouldn't go on record now arguing that palin is (and will be) unelectable.

Posted by: slackmac at August 31, 2010 12:02 PM (MiOtx)

363 The counting will not end tonight.  According to the Anchorage Daily News last week, there will be two additional counts, one on September 3 (primarily of valid questioned ballots) and September 8 (of whatever's left).

Posted by: cinyc at August 31, 2010 12:02 PM (GQdQu)

364 "They questioned whether she was even a good mother, because she had the audacity to not sit home & be the good little wife & mother."

Yes, and?

Posted by: Dr. Laura at August 31, 2010 12:02 PM (mEyVv)

365 meh. math.  I do know the 1/2% is the recount number though.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 31, 2010 12:03 PM (L8kaT)

366 Sarah is no Tancredo , if she thinks she wont make it she'll support the most electable.

What if she stands back and Huckafuck runs? There's a lot of worse things out there than Sarah.

Posted by: Temper Tantrum at August 31, 2010 12:04 PM (bAL0J)

367 I truly don't understand why anyone's panties are getting bunched up over Bristol Palin on Dancing With The Stars.

It's a perfectly mainstream vanilla dancing competition!  There's nothing scandalous about it.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 12:04 PM (mEyVv)

368 polling on presidential candidates this far out are meaningless.  I simply used mccain's polling data as a recent example.  I'm sure that I could find data that showed that Bush (W) was not "electable" two years out, or clinton for that matter.

the fact that mccain lost does not defeat my proposition.

Posted by: slackmac at August 31, 2010 12:05 PM (MiOtx)

369 If not Palin, who else?*




*white males don't count.

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 12:06 PM (bAySe)

370 Boy, that Sarah Palin is no Barack Obama.

Posted by: ingenus at August 31, 2010 12:06 PM (+sBB4)

371

 I truly don't understand why anyone's panties are getting bunched up over Bristol Palin on Dancing With The Stars.

It feeds the impression that Bristol is trading on undeserved fame in the same way her scumbag baby-daddy does.

I kind of agree with it. Go the fuck away already. Take care of your kid. Go to community college or whatever. But get off my television.

Posted by: Warden at August 31, 2010 12:08 PM (QoR4a)

372 Point is, 35% of the party in alaska is turned off by her.

35% of people who voted in this closed primary between Palin arch-rival Lisa Murkowski and Palin surrogate Joe Miller. Legend has it that Joe Miller ran and pitted himself against the Alaska machine before with Palin when her star was rising, March 2008 at the state convention, then he noisily quit the party.

http://community.adn.com/adn/node/152457

So this was a personal thing between her and Murkowski. The majority of the primary voters could care less about the drama and insider baseball stuff. But after sending several Republicans to jail and deposing the Murkowki dynasty, I am not surprised that 35% of the party hates her guts. RedState has diaries by Art Chance, if you're interested in the pathology. The most recent is a hoot.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 12:08 PM (mHQ7T)

373 that said, I would not argue that polling is inherently inaccurate (or that people lie to pollsters, as others have above).  I think that polling data is informative and broadly reflects current attitudes.  I just don't think that current polls can even generally reflect the electability of a candidate two years out....

Posted by: slackmac at August 31, 2010 12:08 PM (MiOtx)

374 "I can't relax
Because I'm a Boinger"

Holy crap, somebody else remembers this.

Posted by: someone at August 31, 2010 04:46 PM (DfAwB)



Billy and the Boingers?

Posted by: Bloom County at August 31, 2010 12:09 PM (UK9cE)

375 I truly don't understand why anyone's panties are getting bunched up over Bristol Palin on Dancing With The Stars.

It's a perfectly mainstream vanilla dancing competition!  There's nothing scandalous about it.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 05:04 PM (mEyVv)

Moreover, Bristol Palin has a relationship with ABC television stemming from her cameo appearance on the ABC Family original series The Secret Life of the American Teenager.  I have a feeling that she will be more pleasant to watch on DWTS than Tom DeLay or Steve Wozniak.

Posted by: stuiec at August 31, 2010 12:11 PM (7AOgy)

376

Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 04:55 PM (R2fpr)

The insane questioning of the birth is not attacking the child.  Its attacking Palin. And if you are going to include people outside the news, I've got news for you. Chelsa Clinton got a lot of ugly jokes thrown her way.  I think McCain may have even done one.

You're stretching it to include attacks on the 'children' to include anyone but Bristol.

Posted by: polynikes

There was open debate on why this child was not aborted. I am not referring to Bristol, who was the second oldest, and who was nominally an adult at the time. Letterman's rape 'joke' wasn't aimed at Bristol at first. It was aimed at a younger sibling. As for Chelsea Clinton, even SNL backed away from bothering her when she was a child.

 

Are you saying that John McCain attacked Chelsea Clinton when she was a child? if so, that was over 10 years ago.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 12:11 PM (R2fpr)

377 I also think that 35% is questionable, since PPP's numbers are everywhere. One set of statistics says her endorsement meant nothing. Then supposedly people were less likely to support a candidate she endorsed, just because. Everyone seems unanimous that this wouldn't be close for Miller without Palin's support, and who really misses Murkowski?

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 12:11 PM (mHQ7T)

378

Billy and the Boingers?

Deathtongue! (how do I make those umlauts?)
 

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2010 12:13 PM (ujg0T)

379 The insane questioning of the birth is not attacking the child.

Well, calling the child an inbred bastard is personally attacking it. It's an awful thing to say about a special needs baby.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 12:13 PM (mHQ7T)

380

Billy and the Boingers?

Deathtongue! (how do I make those umlauts?)
 

Posted by: Curmudgeon

 

Heavy metal?

 

No, weighty brass. - Opus.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 31, 2010 12:14 PM (R2fpr)

381 "It feeds the impression that Bristol is trading on undeserved fame in the same way her scumbag baby-daddy does."

She's participating in a dance competition!  Her imbecilic baby daddy is two steps away from doing gay porn.

You really don't see a significant difference?

What about the fact that she declined his reality series?  That's not what celebrity whores do.

Every thing this scumbag Johnston attempts is a freakshow variation.  Bristol is going to dance.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 12:15 PM (mEyVv)

382 people only see what they want.    No matter what they're not going to like her.   You know, her voice...



Eh?  That's one of the things I love about her.  She sounds like me. Goshdarnit.

Posted by: mama winger at August 31, 2010 12:18 PM (KDX07)

383 Same thing that makes Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian a star.  Scandal.

Kind of, but Paris Hilton would be a porn star if she gave better blow jobs and weren't from a wealthy family. It's really just being telegenic, making a sex tape and having lots of money. That's not scandalous. It's a different world.

To Bristol's credit, she didn't make a sex tape.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 31, 2010 12:19 PM (mHQ7T)

384 "What makes Bristol a star? Same thing that makes Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian a star.  Scandal.  That's what I want in my potential Presidential candidate.  Constant reminders of the scandals in my family."

Viewers of Dancing With The Stars see...wait for it...people dancing.  They show videos of rehearsals and then athletes dance.  After they dance, judges assess the quality of their...once again...dancing.

It's about dancing.  Just because some of the participants are more notorious than others doesn't make it a scandalous freak show.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 12:19 PM (mEyVv)

385 And, yeah, Dancing With The Celebrities would be a more accurate title, but Dancing With The Stars has more flash.

Posted by: Kensington at August 31, 2010 12:21 PM (mEyVv)

386 So if Murky gets 4% more in these votes, than she did in the first count, that only gives her about 2% more than Miller.  2% of say 20,000 (of these votes that are for the Republican primary) is only a net gain of 400 votes.

To gain 1600 net, she needs to win this group of votes by 8%, or about 12% better than she did in the already counted votes.

Isn't that right?  So even in her favored district she wasn't close to getting enough.  Or I need another Miller to see more clearly 

Posted by: bill at August 31, 2010 12:22 PM (9AIt+)

387

She's participating in a dance competition!  Her imbecilic baby daddy is two steps away from doing gay porn.

You really don't see a significant difference?

The only reason she's on that show is because of her mom and her train-wreck relationship with Levi.

And people know it.

It doesn't reflect well on her or on Sarah Palin.  

Posted by: Warden at August 31, 2010 12:23 PM (QoR4a)

388 Uh-Oh!


Miller lead down to 1294

49888-48594=1294

Posted by: Smapty at August 31, 2010 12:23 PM (bAySe)

389 umm ... 10% better than she did in the original count ... 8+2= 12  10

Posted by: bill at August 31, 2010 12:25 PM (9AIt+)

390 411 Uh-Oh!


Miller lead down to 1294

49888-48594=1294

Thought we agreed that Miller would win by 1,000 votes about 200 posts ago?

Going to Club to drink.

Posted by: Kemp at August 31, 2010 12:30 PM (AQxTm)

391 Harley-Davidson rider Mitch Daniels?
As to Palin, east coasters HATE her, she sounds like a hick. I am from Minnesota, it is the same accent. Ace, when you get out away from the coasts and big cities, she is not as reviled as it would seem. I love how the 2008 race was manipulated to being all about Palin, the VICE-presidential candidate; nothing about McCain, he of "let's not use Obama's middle name because it is inflammatory". The use of "Hussein" when Obama took the prsidential oath was a big FU to the whole country, and a smirk at how the Axelrod campaign pulled it off.

I agree that she may not be able to pull off a win for herself, but I have to ask WHY the MFM and the rest of the lefties are still so rabid about Palin. There is something there that scares them.

Posted by: Louie at August 31, 2010 12:44 PM (DTfXb)

392 Don't try to skin a bear before it's stopped breathing! Go Joe!

Posted by: Alaska trash at August 31, 2010 03:10 PM (HQ+Gq)

393 Bristol is going to be paired with two-time champion Mark Ballas, which is kind of exciting for her. I'm glad she gets to go on a fun, competitive show and get out a little more. It looks like a good season.

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