October 29, 2009

Daily Kos Poll: Hoffman's Behind by One, Which Means... Um, Hoffman's Winning
— Ace

It's a Daily Kos poll. Although it's of course partisan and we can rightly suspect a lot of client-appeasing massaging goes into the poll, it's not so biased that we can or should write it off entirely. The Kos poll wasn't too far off in 2008, mostly. Not exactly super-accurate, but neither was it laughably off-base.

The poll has Owens up by one at 33, and Hoffman behind by one at 32.

Which means -- well, look. The people doing the poll understand who their client is, don't they? I take this to mean that the sample is skewed for best-case-scenario for the Democrat, and that Hoffman is really now the frontrunner by a slim 3 point margin.

Scoffa- Scozza -- Scozzo -- whatever her name is, which I've never really learned to spell, and hopefully will soon be able to stop spelling altogether, is fading at 21.

Allah has an interesting theory, by the way: He thinks Scozzablahblah's support is now mostly liberals, or liberal-leaners, who would be inclined to vote for Owens, mostly, were she to drop out of the race completely; so he thinks, perversely, the Scozzer is actually helping Hoffman in this race by dividing the liberals between two candidates, and allowing the conservative to sneak a win with only a third of the electorate.

We're probably never going to see numbers proving or disproving that, but it's not a bad theory.

Meanwhile, 15 prominent conservatives (like Ed Meese, those type guys) have signed a letter urging conservatives to support Hoffman. Which I have to think they already do, but it's a nice enough gesture.

Via Hot Air.


Posted by: Ace at 07:18 AM | Comments (140)
Post contains 296 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Not only do they (Kos and leftists) lie to others, they have to lie to themselves.

These are despicable creatures.

Posted by: wHodat at October 29, 2009 07:20 AM (+sBB4)

2 Ace, you need to close the italics tag.

Posted by: Bill H at October 29, 2009 07:20 AM (q8CmE)

3 Best $25 I ever spent.

Posted by: Methos at October 29, 2009 07:21 AM (IoxPW)

4 Although Allah's theory is interesting, I think it's highly questionable.  It's historically a very conservative district, so it's extremely unlikely there are enough liberals to split between two candidates and leave the Democrat still (at least arguably) in first place.

Posted by: MikeJ at October 29, 2009 07:21 AM (oN8K4)

5 We refuse to close for Ace or for anybody.

Posted by: Italians at October 29, 2009 07:21 AM (yUybe)

6 Just say no to italics

Posted by: wHodat at October 29, 2009 07:21 AM (+sBB4)

7 Is this a test to see if we tilt our heads slightly to the right (kinda like dogs or like, such as blondes) in order to read the text, we understand it better?

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 07:22 AM (ObTcs)

8 Looks like her support is mostly italics.

Posted by: Methos at October 29, 2009 07:22 AM (IoxPW)

9 Italics spill, aisle eight!

Posted by: Scrat at October 29, 2009 07:22 AM (sZYRM)

10
it's not so biased that we can or should write it off entirely.

You're kidding, right?  There's nothing those deranged pricks put out that is in any way believable.

Posted by: Dang Straights at October 29, 2009 07:24 AM (Haq+B)

11 Stands to reason.  Gallup had 40% of Americans identifying themselves as "conservative".  So in a three way race, the conservative has a pretty good shot.

Posted by: FreakyBoy at October 29, 2009 07:24 AM (4s1it)

12 >>>It's historically a very conservative district It is? I don't know about that.

Posted by: ace at October 29, 2009 07:24 AM (mT0zX)

13 Ronnie listens to guys like Falwell and Meese!

Posted by: Deathtongue at October 29, 2009 07:26 AM (Do9Eu)

14 Now if only there were a way to drag Chris Christie across the finish line.

Posted by: joncelli at October 29, 2009 07:27 AM (RD7QR)

15 Skeezarella is the True Conservative in this race, you crazy nutbags!

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at October 29, 2009 07:27 AM (Xdxf8)

16

>>>It's historically a very conservative district

It is? I don't know about that.

 

it is historically a republican district, not conservative.

if i am not mistaken this district voted republican for every FDR election year, which is pretty impressive. I think Mchugh or Hugh, or whatever the previous congressmen's name is, was a moderate. Obviously further to the right of Scruntaflava, but not where Hoffman is at.

This is a republican district that leans to the right, but lets not call it a conservative district.

Posted by: Ben at October 29, 2009 07:28 AM (wuv1c)

17

Now if only there were a way to drag Chris Christie across the finish line.

 

we're gonna need more trucks

Posted by: Ben at October 29, 2009 07:28 AM (wuv1c)

18 ace is a true conservative.  Even his fonts lean to the right.

Posted by: wHodat at October 29, 2009 07:29 AM (+sBB4)

19 What matters most now is election-day turnout.

Posted by: mrp at October 29, 2009 07:29 AM (HjPtV)

20 I expect more Republican dirty tricks directed at the Republican nominee at any minute.

Posted by: Josh Kraushaar at October 29, 2009 07:30 AM (muUqs)

21 If you silly "voters" and "activists" knew what was good for you, you'd support Scruntafogger like me.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at October 29, 2009 07:30 AM (Xdxf8)

22 True, 'tis.  There i$ another rea$on that the$e poll$ $how clo$e race$.  Gotta keep the contributor$ pantie$ wet with anticipation of victory.

Posted by: Seriously at October 29, 2009 07:30 AM (/LY9/)

23

Hoffman has the momentum and the other campaigns never saw it coming, so there is probably very little Op. research out there to constitute a game changer. Unless Hoffman puts his foot in his mouth the next few days, he could be riding this thing all the way cross the finish line.

 

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 29, 2009 12:24 PM (V9SYy)

This is a very real danger.  Sticking one's foot in one's mouth in the last few days of a campaign and blowing the election is a time-honored tradition in New York politics.  Just ask Al D'Amato.

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 29, 2009 07:31 AM (OtQXp)

24 Could be a very interesting morning for me here next Wed. No tv so I'll probably be hearing (reading) about the elections right here, on this very stage. Here's to seeing flaming skulls galore.

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 07:31 AM (QdUKm)

25 15 Now if only there were a way to drag Chris Christie across the finish line.

Posted by: joncelli at October 29, 2009 12:27 PM (RD7QR)

I don't hold out much hope there- even if we could drag Christie in they'll just keep re-counting until Corzine wins.

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 29, 2009 07:33 AM (OtQXp)

26

The problem with Allah's theory, if true, is what happens with these libs come election day?  Presumably, with Skeeze bleeding like a pair of blue jeans in the whites cycle, they're gonna jump ship and throw in with Owens.  So I'm thinking we better hope Allah's wrong.

Posted by: jake at October 29, 2009 07:33 AM (wlSqE)

27 oh, and it gets better: Moveon is officially getting into the mix.

Posted by: eddiebear at October 29, 2009 07:33 AM (wnU1W)

28 Now , it's time for someone to tell us how irrelevant Mrs. Palin has become .
Who the hell listens to caribou Barbie ?
Palin/Cheney 2012 !! Oh hell yeah .

Posted by: akward davies at October 29, 2009 07:34 AM (wb68R)

29
Sticking one's foot in one's mouth in the last few days of a campaign and blowing the election is a time-honored tradition

Or letting out girly screams, those hurt too.

Posted by: Howard The Scream Dean at October 29, 2009 07:34 AM (Haq+B)

30

Election Day odds pulled out of my, er, hat:

NY23 Hoffman to win- 55%

NJ Christie to win- 30%

VA McDonnell to win- 99.9999%

Bonus: R's Trifecta in VA (McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli)- 95%

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 29, 2009 07:38 AM (SCcgT)

31

Cross finger, pray rosary..........

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 29, 2009 12:37 PM (V9SYy)

Done and done!

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 29, 2009 07:39 AM (OtQXp)

32 20 What matters most now is election-day turnout.

Posted by: mrp at October 29, 2009 12:29 PM

The Democrats have ACORN and dead voters, and the Republicans have...whatever they are doing to harm Hoffman as well.  (Funny how they hit harder against a conservative candidate than they do against Democrats.  Tells me all I need to know about the current GOP).

Anyway, with ACORN, dead voters, typical Democrat dirty tricks and corruption -- and then a little help from the GOP -- I don't see how Hoffman stands a chance.

As the saying goes "if it's not close, they can't win".  Or something like that.  But, if it's close, the Democrats/Left will do whatever it takes to steal the election. Period.  They did that with every close race in 2008.

If Hoffman does win in the face of all that, I will be extremely pleasantly surprised.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 07:41 AM (ObTcs)

33 Wow, it would be nice if the idiots at the RNCC would get the message.

Posted by: runningrn at October 29, 2009 07:41 AM (qP2BK)

34

a carbon-neutral flaming skull warms this cold little conservative heart

Posted by: Fallen Sparrow at October 29, 2009 07:41 AM (SOf9N)

35

Everyone should read that sidebar story about the Dede hag and how she got picked. It was not only a local crony, but also national Republican bosses who got her installed.

 

I hope those big tent assholes are reading this blog.

 

How’s my ass taste big tenters!

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 07:41 AM (CDUiN)

36 @15, What about one of those tow trucks they use for semis?

Posted by: Mike H at October 29, 2009 07:41 AM (LdYLm)

37 I hope Hoffman wins.
Then I will make a t-shirt that says:
NY-23
Can you hear me now?!

Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at October 29, 2009 07:43 AM (iYbLN)

38

I wonder if hoffman can win against democrat and republican dirty tricks. I think it is understood that the democrats are great at it, but it's been a while since a candidate had to deal with the democrats tricks without republican backing.

I will be pleasantly suprised in Hoffman wins.  If he wins I am curious if he will change his registration to republican, or remain conservative and caucus with the republicans.

Posted by: Ben at October 29, 2009 07:46 AM (wuv1c)

39 @37, the only way they will get the message is - someone has to drive down to Washington, DC, crash one of their happy hours and piss in their martinis.

Posted by: Mike H at October 29, 2009 07:47 AM (LdYLm)

40 I've made a gesture to the base too.

Posted by: newt at October 29, 2009 07:47 AM (2qU2d)

41 At last count, 15 additional comments and not one flaming skulls galore - Wasn't she one of the bad girls in a Bond movie? I laid it right on the table and not one of you morons picked it up and ran with it. See what that value-rite can do to ya?

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 07:47 AM (c459z)

42 Its really too bad The Newt, famed architect of the Contract with America, couldn't see his way to endorsing the only conservative in this race, and get on our side one time.  He has become part of the problem, unfortunately.

Posted by: RickinTexas at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (BQXXR)

43

Then I will make a t-shirt

You know, I can help you with that.

Posted by: Steve Philips at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (e8YaH)

44 Now if only there were a way to drag Chris Christie across the finish line.

Obviously he is a better choice then Corzine, but I saw Christie on a news show the other day, and he did nothing put spout platitudes that could have come from any <generic> politician.  The dude really needs to get on board with the whole thinking for yourself thing.



Posted by: dogfish at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (ov3Hi)

45

I hope those big tent assholes are reading this blog.

 

How’s my ass taste big tenters!


Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 12:41 PM

I bet they do read this blog.  And they know darn well they have nothing to fear from any of us.  There are plenty of people here who have explicitly stated that if it is a choice between a Communist Democrat and a Communist-Lite Republican, you vote for the lesser of two evils.  And all those of us who say no to that, we're only voting for conservatives, are told we are living in fantasy-land.  And we have everyone, including Rush Limbaugh, saying that third party is not the way to go.

So, they know they have nothing to fear.  At the end of the day, they know they have us by the balls.  We have told them time and time again that we will not go 3rd Party, so they are going to keep giving us these shitty candidates and telling to like it.

Seriously, were I a big tent GOP operative reading this blog, I wouldn't be worried at all.  I'd be telling my bosses "yeah, they're pretty damn pissed off, but, at the end of the day, what are they going to do, vote for a Democrat?  Nah. And they already said they won't go third party.  So we're all good. Just say some BS about party unity and scare them with 'if you don't vote for our candidate, you're assuring Democrat power' and they'll come around".

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (ObTcs)

46

@37, the only way they will get the message is - someone has to drive down to Washington, DC, crash one of their happy hours and piss in their martinis

OK, who's up for a road trip to our nation's capital?  I'll bring the beer, and lots of it!

Posted by: Angry Wing Nut at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (qP2BK)

47 Looks like it's going to rain all weekend up there maybe Tuesday too.

Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at October 29, 2009 07:49 AM (iYbLN)

48 That district has been represented by Republicans since 1871. McHugh won with either over 60% of the vote or no opposition at all in NY-23. He has a lifetime rating of 71 from the Conservative Union. I can't see Scozz having Democrat voters in her camp. Which would mean that over 50% of the voters are Democrat or Democrat leaning.

Posted by: Tendstl at October 29, 2009 07:51 AM (bplaw)

49 Michael in MI, 
What we do is stay home.  They found that out with McCain.  Not that they listen at the RNC.  They are douchebags.

Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at October 29, 2009 07:51 AM (iYbLN)

50

Its really too bad The Newt, famed architect of the Contract with America, couldn't see his way to endorsing the only conservative in this race, and get on our side one time.  He has become part of the problem, unfortunately.

I honestly think that Newt's success as a novelist went to his head.  He started doing the book tours and cocktail circuit, and he's become one of them.  He likes hanging out with "the cool kids", and he's sold his soul to maintain that.

Posted by: Angry Wing Nut at October 29, 2009 07:51 AM (qP2BK)

51 You know, every time a woman talks about a shirt, I think she's telling me to help her take it off.  I don't know, it must be all this Viagra.

Posted by: Steve Philips at October 29, 2009 07:51 AM (e8YaH)

52 Someone bitch-slap Cheney. Hutchinson is a fricking RINO deluxe.

Posted by: TexasJew at October 29, 2009 07:52 AM (VPwsO)

53 Ben, he is a Republican.  In NY, you can be am R, and get the endorsement of other parties (and vote in quaint 1950's voting machines that make you think of your elementary school gym).

Posted by: John Sterling ParisParamus at October 29, 2009 07:53 AM (VKn7o)

54 LOL "RINO Deluxe"

Posted by: John Sterling ParisParamus at October 29, 2009 07:54 AM (VKn7o)

55 TexasJew,
You find someone to bitch-slap Cheney.  I'm not going there, ever.

Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at October 29, 2009 07:54 AM (iYbLN)

56 Ace,

From Wikipedia: "The 23rd has historically been one of the more Republican districts in the Northeast, having last been represented by a Democrat in 1871, including predecessor districts, with some areas within the district having elected Republican Representatives since 1851. McHugh was consistently elected with over 60% of the vote. However, in recent years the district has been more competitive in United States presidential elections, with George W. Bush winning the district in both 2004 against John Kerry (51%–47%) and 2000 against Al Gore (49%–47%), and Barack Obama defeating John McCain in the district 52%–47% in 2008."

But I will concur with the commenter above calling it a historically Republican district as opposed to a historically conservative district.

Posted by: MikeJ at October 29, 2009 07:54 AM (oN8K4)

57 Posted by: dogfish at October 29, 2009 12:49 PM (ov3Hi) At this stage of the game. You play it close to the vest. Don't offer any new policy proposals or go off the reservation, you don't need a soundbite that could make you look bad in the next week. Christie is playing it right.

Posted by: Tendstl at October 29, 2009 07:54 AM (GTTYa)

58 These people are so funny, right?, RIGHT?!!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 29, 2009 07:54 AM (OXZNH)

59

What we do is stay home.  They found that out with McCain.  Not that they listen

Every time I get something in the mail or a phone call from the RNC, RNCC, etc. I write or say that I am only sending money to true conservative individual candidates.  I answer all the survey questions with pithy comments about how the Republicans will continue to lose as long as they promote these "Democrat Lite" candidates.  On the last survey, I wrote something like "Hello!  Dede Scoffazaface!--your wasting party money on a Democrat!!!" They keep calling and they keep sending me crap--total waste of their money and their time. 

Posted by: Angry Wing Nut at October 29, 2009 07:55 AM (qP2BK)

60

Why so beholden to the republican party, why not start a new party instead of butting heads with the old guard? Is it money, staffing, name reconition, or just the joy of screwing with the powers that be. It seems to me that you have a big problem with the party, even though you really liked the attention you got from them in the last election cycle. Stop bitching about it and start a new party that doesnt have the problems that you seemed to have with this one.

Serious question, dont want to start a flame war.

Posted by: xerxes at October 29, 2009 07:56 AM (z7WkW)

61 55 Michael in MI, 
What we do is stay home.  They found that out with McCain.  Not that they listen at the RNC.  They are douchebags.

Posted by: MPFS Indentured Fish Stick to the State at October 29, 2009 12:51 PM

I agree.  But you know what?  People who do that are told they live in fantasy-land.  Those who stayed home and didn't vote for McCain last election are lambasted for giving us Obama.  They are told they are what is wrong with the conservative movement, that they didn't just suck it up and vote for the lesser of two evils.

Remember the people last year who were saying they weren't going to vote for McCain and were speculating that having a radical Obama and Democrats in office would show the country the true color (red) of the Left and would convince the country to bring us another Reagan?  Those people were told they were nuts.

And the GOP knows this.  They know that people who are getting fed up, and thinking either 3rd Party or not voting at all, are being lambasted and told they are living in fantasy land and need to get in line and vote 'lesser of two evils'.

So why would the GOP get any hints?  Unless there is a 3rd Party movement or people, en masse, stay home and don't vote for RINOs, the GOP is going to keep giving us RINOs and telling us to like it.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 07:57 AM (ObTcs)

62 Scoffa- Scozza -- Scozzo -- whatever her name is

I just call her Scuzzi Dede.  Much easier to remember.

Posted by: dmoss at October 29, 2009 07:57 AM (z17GE)

63 >>>It's historically a very conservative district

That voted for Obama in 2008.  So the key is probably turnout.  People who like Hoffman are motivated.

I almost expect the party-over-principles Republicans will vote for Owens just to keep Hoffman out.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 29, 2009 07:58 AM (NtiET)

64 Can you put the ground squirrel holding the Hoffman sign in front of the flaming skull?  I can't enough of that.

Posted by: at October 29, 2009 07:59 AM (+E4Xh)

65 The winning strategy for conservatives is to take control of the Republican party through conservative candidates in the primaries.

Posted by: davidt at October 29, 2009 07:59 AM (Gk6j6)

66 Posted by: xerxes at October 29, 2009 12:56 PM Concern troll. No, third parties never work. We have Ds and Rs and always will.

Posted by: Tendstl at October 29, 2009 08:00 AM (GTTYa)

67 Ace is a furry ewok with 2 non-opposable thumbs with large suction cups at the tip so he may be partially forgiven for having difficulties with typing long names. But for the rest of you Moronette Rag-Tag Militia, there is no excuse to misspell

Dedetrice Scozzapallooza, La Bella Scozza-Ragazza!


Reporting Live from Fontana di Trevi, Christopher Johnson for d-9.com

Posted by: Christopher Johnson at October 29, 2009 08:01 AM (dP6Ky)

68 Republican, yes. I know that and have said as much. And conservative-ish for the Northeast. But I was objecting to your characterization of it as "very conservative." It ain't Kansas.

Posted by: ace at October 29, 2009 08:01 AM (mT0zX)

69 Remember the people last year who were saying they weren't going to vote for McCain and were speculating that having a radical Obama and Democrats in office would show the country the true color (red) of the Left and would convince the country to bring us another Reagan?  Those people were told they were nuts.


Because those people WERE nuts.  There is no "another Reagan."  And even Reagan couldn't dismantle Carter's Dept. of Education...so even if there was "another Reagan," accepting socialized medicine, energy-usage restrictions, and crippling taxation to get to him is a HUGE net loss of liberty.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 29, 2009 08:01 AM (NtiET)

70

I agree with the need to hide out if I am Christie...for now.

Maybe the voters will forget he is fat, and vote for him because he will lower their taxes, and reduce government....

Posted by: ford at October 29, 2009 08:02 AM (Ki7fm)

71 That's pretty optimistic coming from the Lord Of The Worlds. It means I have to take it seriously... I think the Scuzz was chosen to bring back the Red Tories. (If I am permitted to use an Eastern-Canadian term for this border district.) They're the 70-plus Rockefeller voters, who still identify with Republicans out of nostalgia, but have been tacking Left for decades. If the RNC had chosen Hoffman to begin with, it's possible that the Red Tories would have broken for the Democrat in this race. The Scuzz is keeping them trapped. The RNC may even have done the right thing: by choosing a crap candidate to bog down the Republican Robots, while a real conservative took the election. Given all that, the person who is coming out of this looking the most stupid is Newt Gingrich.

Posted by: Zimriel at October 29, 2009 08:04 AM (ouQK5)

72 the only way they will get the message is - someone has to drive down to Washington, DC, crash one of their happy hours and piss in their martinis. Call me.

Posted by: MRI at October 29, 2009 08:04 AM (aVQo/)

73 I wish pelosi would take a sailboat ride off the coast of somalia, y'know to bring healthcare to those poor unfortunates and shit!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 29, 2009 08:04 AM (OXZNH)

74

Posted by: xerxes at October 29, 2009 12:56 PM

Concern troll.

No, third parties never work. We have Ds and Rs and always will.

 

I think those were the last words of the Whig Party in the 1850s

Posted by: Ben at October 29, 2009 08:05 AM (wuv1c)

75

Thanks Radish,

don't get me started on Cons that voted for Obama or stayed home so we would scrap the Constitution....

tell that to the service people who are fighting in the Iraq and A stan wars.

Posted by: ford at October 29, 2009 08:05 AM (Ki7fm)

76 Kos and the Daily Kos? Heard of 'em. Trust 'em implicitly.

Posted by: Charlie Gibson at October 29, 2009 08:07 AM (swuwV)

77 That's 2  in a row rejected because of unbroken text strings etc... . and all I did was copy the commentors name and reply below that. Dammit pixie.

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 08:08 AM (c459z)

78 "Allah has an interesting theory, by the way: He thinks Scozzablahblah's support is now mostly liberals, or liberal-leaners, who would be inclined to vote for Owens"

I seem to recall a very recent election that followed much the same pattern of liberals supporting the Republican candidate right up until the Republican candidate wins the nomination.

Posted by: JohnJ at October 29, 2009 08:08 AM (MF1FA)

79 Noone cares about our Troops anymore same, same, as us in 'Nam, hey Yogi it's deja vu all over again, some things never change when it comes down to the stupid party!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 29, 2009 08:08 AM (OXZNH)

80 Because those people WERE nuts.  There is no "another Reagan."  And even Reagan couldn't dismantle Carter's Dept. of Education...so even if there was "another Reagan," accepting socialized medicine, energy-usage restrictions, and crippling taxation to get to him is a HUGE net loss of liberty.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 29, 2009 01:01 PM

No another Reagan.  Okay then, well I guess this is all pointless.  There's no "another Reagan", because people have given up on demanding "another Reagan".  Every time we get a conservative to step up -- Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Duncan Hunter -- what happens?  Thompson has a "silly hat" problem and no "fire in the belly".  The Left hates Sarah Palin so let's give up on her.  Bobby Jindal has no 'gravitas', so let's give up on him.  Duncan Hunter is unelectable, so let's give up on him.

It's no wonder the GOP gives us RINOs, since whenever there are conservative choices, people find some small BS reason to reject them.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:11 AM (ObTcs)

81

I wish pelosi would take a sailboat ride off the coast of somalia, y'know to bring healthcare to those poor unfortunates and shit!

I bet she'd like it here... she might even get laid.

Posted by: Somali Pirate at October 29, 2009 08:11 AM (wAQA5)

82 can we dump Steele yet?

Posted by: shoey at October 29, 2009 08:12 AM (n4TZg)

83 @33 Election Day odds

From your lips to God's ears , BCP.

At least our post - singularity. regressive  America will have nominally conservative leadership.


Posted by: jadedinga at October 29, 2009 08:14 AM (5iQTe)

84 I'm at the point I'm all for an Independent Conservative Party, nothing else has worked so far, at least we would know whom we are electing!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 29, 2009 08:14 AM (OXZNH)

85 @87 - I thought pirates had higher standards.

Posted by: Jim at October 29, 2009 08:15 AM (E725N)

86 Christie is still in the lead in reputable polls, so I am keeping the faith in hope and change realizing its still NJ.  But if the people of NJ don't have enough sense to boot corzine, then they get what they deserve.

I think Hoffman pulls it out and the message gets sent (which will remain unread like a pepsi lawsuit).

Posted by: Dr. Do-it-yourself at October 29, 2009 08:15 AM (DIYmd)

87

Money is the mother's milk of politics.

If conservatives donate only to conservative candidates rather than to the Republican party then the non-conservative elements within the Republican party will starve to death.

Posted by: davidt at October 29, 2009 08:17 AM (Gk6j6)

88 The problem with Allah's theory, if true, is what happens with these libs come election day?  Presumably, with Skeeze bleeding like a pair of blue jeans in the whites cycle, they're gonna jump ship and throw in with Owens.  So I'm thinking we better hope Allah's wrong.

The problem is the undecided Catholics are probably going to vote for Owens.

Hoffman needs miracles to win.

Posted by: Timothy Geithner at October 29, 2009 08:18 AM (GtYrq)

89 Sockity sock sock sock puppets!

Posted by: WTFCI at October 29, 2009 08:18 AM (GtYrq)

90 @86 - Keep hammerin' away Mike, I'm right there with ya (otherwise known as the AoS kiss of death). My reason, and this is just me so please don't infer it onto someone else, anyone who is just going to "slow down" the march towards globalism does not get my vote. They better be ready to fight to take it the other way or forget about it. I'm NOT leaving this to my grandkids to have to die for if I can help it. The crushing monetary debt is bad enough. And please don't try to tell me McCain would have made a difference there either.

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 08:20 AM (QdUKm)

91

We have told them time and time again that we will not go 3rd Party, so they are going to keep giving us these shitty candidates and telling to like it.

 

Not so; in fact I had intended to vote 3rd Party in the last election until Sarah Palin showed up. My intent was that the Republican Party needed to have a two-by-four upside the head because they had ignored the 2006 election. The only way to do that was to have the 3rd party numbers elevated. I urged everyone (at Townhall) who had said they were staying at home to go down and vote 3rd party because the idiots who ran the Party would come up with all kinds of reasons for losing just like 2006.

 

Well they did stay at home and the bosses did come up with some new reasons for losing. In 2006 they said it was “the war” that caused the drop in GWB popularity. They never did explain how a war hawk like McLame got the nod though if it was “the war” that killed Bush.  But I digress. After the disaster that was McLame in 2008 who and what did they blame?  Sarah Palin and religious social conservatives were what caused the loss.  We needed a “big tent” except that we also needed to purge the “social cons” because the tent was that big after all.

 

You can see McLame’s hand in all of this. He has always spit on the social cons even though they actually only make up a small portion of the people who vote Republican. All that crap about them controlling the party is media hype.

 

So after I went down to the polls and stood in line IN THE GD RAIN to vote for Sarah Palin loser McLame lost and the first thing he (his people) did was attack Sarah Palin.

 

And finally, 3rd party has not always been a death Nell. Back in 1860 the Republican Party was a 3rd Party.  If they do not mend their ways SOON, it will be again.

 

So big tent party AH’s reading this, I will NEVER vote for the lesser of the evils again. In fact, be it known to you AH’s that LinseedoilGramhamnasty had no “conservative running mate”. I did vote third party in the Senate race hear in 2008.

 

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 08:21 AM (CDUiN)

92 Given all that, the person who is coming out of this looking the most stupid is Newt Gingrich.

Unless Owens wins.  Then it's the winter of "I told you so" and you know how Newt loves a microphone and a camera.

PS: Newt is on "The Late Late Show" with Craig Ferguson tonight.  PR and how you use it is really important.

Posted by: WTFCI at October 29, 2009 08:21 AM (GtYrq)

93 Who cares what appears on Daily Kos?  I still think he was recruited by the USSR in W Germany.  Either that, or he must have gown AWL or hid out in the barracks.  There is something not right with him.

Posted by: hous bin pharteen at October 29, 2009 08:22 AM (pU4D7)

94

http://tinyurl.com/ylky6h2

 

Is it just me, or are the NJ Dems gearing up for a tight recount?

Posted by: eddiebear at October 29, 2009 08:26 AM (wnU1W)

95 @97 - Geez, I get all fired up and put up what I think is a good one (for a sub-moron like me) and does it about 10 times better in the next post. Next thing ya know Monty will show up and....

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 08:26 AM (QdUKm)

96

It's no wonder the GOP gives us RINOs, since whenever there are conservative choices, people find some small BS reason to reject them.

All of those things you mentioned were BS hype invented by the MSM. As much as we complain about the media some of the Morons believe them when they air out this kind of shit.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 08:26 AM (CDUiN)

97 Btw, Democrats in NJ are already lining up to steal this election with fraudulent votes. http://tinyurl.com/ylky6h2

Posted by: Tendstl at October 29, 2009 08:27 AM (bplaw)

98 Not a troll, but if that title makes you feel better, more power to you. I am an independent voter that gets why you are angry, just confused about why you are going this route. You are supporting a third party pol but then tell me that it is only a two party game. Is it easier to purge the party or to start a new one? If the flippent answear is all you have then great, but it is a serious question that I have. Many in the comment section here and in other right wing blogs talk about it, but I see very little other than angry comments about the state of the Republican party and the need for a third party(granted only by some), but nothing on how to achieve the goals of a more conservative party other than "throw the bums out".

Posted by: xerxes at October 29, 2009 08:27 AM (z7WkW)

99 that should have read    "Vic shows up and does it....

Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 08:27 AM (QdUKm)

100

#101

Vic does that to me too, lol

and i'm glad he does.

 

Posted by: shoey at October 29, 2009 08:32 AM (n4TZg)

101 Can we use scozzo as a derogatory word for a woman? as in Dudette, don't be a scozzo!

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at October 29, 2009 08:32 AM (1hM1d)

102 100 http://tinyurl.com/ylky6h2 Is it just me, or are the NJ Dems gearing up for a tight recount? They must have internal polls showing it close. So, of course, that makes it easier to steal. The Dems learned their lesson from Florida in 2000 even if the GOP didn't.

Posted by: joncelli at October 29, 2009 08:33 AM (RD7QR)

103 So big tent party AH’s reading this, I will NEVER vote for the lesser of the evils again. In fact, be it known to you AH’s that LinseedoilGramhamnasty had no “conservative running mate”. I did vote third party in the Senate race hear in 2008. Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 01:21 PM Well, I think according to HeatherRadish (and I'm not picking on her, I believe her opinion is the opinion of the majority of conservative-leaning bloggers and commenters), I think that makes you nuts. But, I'm nuts right along with you. I'm done trying to twist myself into pretzels trying to convince family, friends and coworkers why voting for Communist-lite is better than not voting. It's like trying to convince someone to cut off their foot instead of their hand. They look at me like I am nuts. "How about I just not cut off anything?" "Well, you see, you use your hands a lot more than your feet for most things. You can get by much, much better with one foot rather than with one hand" "Yeah, but, how about I just not cut off anything?" "Well, yeah, but, you see..."

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:33 AM (ObTcs)

104 Posted by: eddiebear at October 29, 2009 01:26 PM (wnU1W)
Posted by: Tendstl at October 29, 2009 01:27 PM (bplaw)

If Corzine doesn't win "on the first ballot", so to speak, they'll just keep re-counting until he does. (cf. Christine Gregoire, Al Franken)

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 29, 2009 08:35 AM (OtQXp)

105 If Corzine doesn't win "on the first ballot", so to speak, they'll just keep re-counting until he does. (cf. Christine Gregoire, Al Franken) A box of votes will pop up in a warehouse in Trenton containing, mirable dictu, the exact number of votes Corzine requires to go over the top. Amazing!

Posted by: joncelli at October 29, 2009 08:37 AM (RD7QR)

106
A box of votes will pop up in a warehouse in Trenton containing, mirable dictu, the exact number of votes Corzine requires to go over the top. Amazing!

Posted by: joncelli at October 29, 2009 01:37 PM (RD7QR)

Skittles and free health care for everybody!

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 29, 2009 08:38 AM (OtQXp)

107 Going to be interesting to see which poll was right after Tuesday.

Posted by: Def Leppard at October 29, 2009 08:38 AM (hIOnV)

108 Michael in MI: "It's no wonder the GOP gives us RINOs, since whenever there are conservative choices, people find some small BS reason to reject them."

So true. This is why the NY-23 is so interesting and, perhaps, significant. If conservatives can start electing their own brand of Right, then they can slowly change the composition of government. There won't be a wholesale flip to a new party ever. Perhaps piecemeal is the way to go.Unique districts can change and, if led well, grow into a more populist movement. As we keep reading, "conservatives" remain the largest demographic.

Sure, it would be easier if conservatives took over the GOP apparatus, but I just don't see that happening. The GOP is too committed to big government, too. Our government has failed. Democrats have just expedited the collapse. (Actually, expedited the expansion, but you get my point that it sucks Satan's barbed cock.) Conservatives are a threat to Republicans just as they are a threat to Democrats, i.e. Statists of different stripes. The party apparatus continues to work against the base because "leadership" knows it can screw the base and the base will still fall in line eventually.

Perhaps, short-term, a Hoffman and Rubio win will force the GOP to attend to its base, but I'm convinced that acquiescence will be short-lived. The GOP will absorb the conservative platform (to get control again) and promptly ignore it except for the empty rhetoric which, years from now, will be seen by the public as empty promises and yet another betrayal.

There is no reforming the GOP. Sure, I'll vote for the lesser evil if given a choice between a Democrat and a RINO, but if given the option to contribute to/vote for a conservative? I'm going rogue every time.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 29, 2009 08:38 AM (swuwV)

109

Thanks to all for the kind words.

 

What I will add is that it is still bad to stay at home and not vote at all. In that last election the only person I had on my ballot that I voted for was Sarah Palin. Here in Podunk, SC the Republicans do not run people for small town offices.  Since I was not going to vote for Grahamnasty I had one vote for president and 3rd party or write-ins for everything else. It would have been much easier to stay at home. But the party gets no message if you stay at home.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 08:41 AM (CDUiN)

110 All of those things you mentioned were BS hype invented by the MSM. As much as we complain about the media some of the Morons believe them when they air out this kind of shit. Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 01:26 PM Not entirely true. You know who was pushing the "silly hat" shit about Fred Thompson? Michelle Malkin, AllahPundit and Bryan Preston. All THREE of them were pushing that meme and all THREE of them even showed up to comment in the HotAir post about it, including Malkin. Pissed me the F'CK off to no end. And there were plenty of conservative bloggers who dumped on Bobby Jindal and deemed him to be boring and not ready for prime time and having no 'gravitas' after he gave some speech a few months ago. Yeah, nevermind that he has a good conservative track record... no gravitas?... well then, let's dump him. Hey look at Mitt and Huck, let's support them! They have 'gravitas'! Nevermind they are not conservatives. And who was leading the way saying Palin was "done"? That's right, ace himself. As were many others, including AllahPundit and Ed Morrissey. And who was leading the way with the whole "electability" crap during the 2008 Primary? Pretty much every right-leaning blog. There was no focus on principles and conservative values. Nope. It was all about 'electability' and focusing on poll numbers. So this is not some media driven thing. The right-leaning blogosphere claims to want conservatives, but when we get them, we end up taking them down ourselves, leaving us with shitty candidates like Huck, Mitt and McCain. Brilliant.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:41 AM (ObTcs)

111

democrat losing = all votes must be counted!

(meaning you MUST allow us to keep counting votes even though the voting is over)

democrat winning = the ppl have spoken!

(meaning smoke'um if ya got'em ACORN)

 

Posted by: shoey at October 29, 2009 08:41 AM (n4TZg)

112 101 @97 - Geez, I get all fired up and put up what I think is a good one (for a sub-moron like me) and does it about 10 times better in the next post. Next thing ya know Monty will show up and.... Posted by: teej at October 29, 2009 01:26 PM Heh, I feel the same way so many times here, with Vic, Monty and so many other morons' and moronettes' comments. In fact, I end up saving many of the comments M&M's make on my blog for posterity, because they express what I want to say so well, only better than I can do myself.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:43 AM (ObTcs)

113 Why is there a Daily Kos Poll and no AoSHQ Poll? Aren't there enough hobos left in the Bowery?

Posted by: obama is a traitor at October 29, 2009 08:43 AM (Qt4Y7)

114

I don’t remember MM talking down Fred but that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. And Allah et al, I do not consider them “conservative bloggers”. I put them in the same category as Hugh Hewitt; straight Republican Party men and mostly “big tenters”.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 08:47 AM (CDUiN)

115 But the party gets no message if you stay at home. Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 01:41 PM 100% agreed! I hear a lot of people curse Perot for giving the 1992 Presidential election to Clinton. That may be so, BUT it also sent a message to the GOP that Bush 41's betrayal was unacceptable to the GOP base. And that they truly wanted fiscal conservatism that Perot was selling. Now, had all those people just stayed at home and it was just Bush 41 vs Clinton voters, the only percentages would have been different and instead of winning by a plurality, Clinton probably would have had a majority. And the message would have been that America wanted Clinton. But they didn't. They wanted fiscal conservatism. The GOP got the message, put out a good platform in 1994 and took back the House.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:49 AM (ObTcs)

116 Dede's support now entirely consists of Republicans at this point, mostly liberal and party only voters. The Dems, and the local media, are trying to convince them Hoffman is an insult and they should crossover. If Dede drops out the very liberal republicans will vote Dem, the rest will either stay home or vote Hoffman.
If Dede stays in she is probably drawing on higher percentage of potential Hoffman voters but the votes are more critical to Owens as he will need everything he can get in a district that votes 60% republican.

If Hoffman stays up in polls for the next couple days then Dede will just keep bleeding votes to Hoffman as the party people realize it's Hoffman or Owens.

In the end I expect Hoffman to get around 50% of the vote, Owens 40% and Dede single digits.  Without Dede it's 54-46 for Hoffman.

Posted by: Rocks at October 29, 2009 08:52 AM (Q1lie)

117 120 I don’t remember MM talking down Fred but that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. And Allah et al, I do not consider them “conservative bloggers”. I put them in the same category as Hugh Hewitt; straight Republican Party men and mostly “big tenters”. Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 01:47 PM Oh I F'ING remember it like it was yesterday. Fred was my guy and I voted for him here in the MI Primary, despite everyone saying I had to "strategically" vote for Romney. F that. So when Malkin and her cohorts had post after post about that damn "silly hat" shit, it pissed me off to no end. And yeah, "conservative" no. That's why I said "conservative-leaning". There really are not that many prominent bloggers who actually are full-on conservative.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 29, 2009 08:53 AM (ObTcs)

118 I think Scozzyfozzy wins it.

Hear me out:

The Dems split between the D, Owens, and the most liberal candidate, Scozzyfozzy.
The Repubs split between the R, Scozzyfozzy, and and the most conservative candidate, Hoffman.

Scozzyfozzy picks up half the Dems and half the Repubs and waltzes her Planned Parenthood-approved butt to Washington.

Newt says,  "Told you so."

Posted by: VKI at October 29, 2009 09:00 AM (LZK9H)

119

@123

I remember that MM wasn't very enthusiastic about Fred Thompson.  She liked his policies, but she bought into the 'Fred Thompson doesn't have fire in the belly' meme which the Politico tagged him with back in Iowa. 

It would be hard to say that Michelle Malkin is anything but a conservative.  She constantly criticizes the GOP and 'big tent' republicans.  I've never heard her tell conservatives they need to keep quiet and be more accepting of moderates.

Posted by: Zuggs at October 29, 2009 09:07 AM (FkKjr)

120

She liked his policies, but she bought into the 'Fred Thompson doesn't have fire in the belly' meme which the Politico tagged him with back in Iowa. 

 

I thought that meme was invented by Chris “Commie” Wallace.  I remember Fred blasting hell out of him for it.  It was the best Chris Wallace interview I ever saw. Teh Fred ate his lunch over the “fire in the belly” crap.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 09:22 AM (CDUiN)

121 BTW, I did not say MM was not a conservative.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 09:23 AM (CDUiN)

122

@126

That could be.  I seem to recall it first appearing in a politico article about Fred on the road, saying he was tired and unenergetic on road stops.  It was an article designed to assassinate his campaign, and in that it was very successful.

I thought the article mentioned the famous 'fire in the belly' phrase, but you are probably correct.

Posted by: Zuggs at October 29, 2009 09:37 AM (FkKjr)

123

It could be that you are correct as well. After reading the first Politico article I saw that they were leftest so I never went back.

So I don't know anything about the tme line on the infamous "fire in the belly" shit.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 09:45 AM (CDUiN)

124 The trend for Hoffman is encouraging -- from 41 to 47.5 on InTrade today.


Posted by: JB at October 29, 2009 09:55 AM (1OoPr)

125 Wow, they're going to have to call in a LOT of ACORN folks on election day to make sure this doesn't happen...

Posted by: Texmom at October 29, 2009 09:59 AM (WzN8I)

126 And so it begins: Headline New Jersey

Democrats Ask New Jersey Secretary of State to Ignore Mismatched Signatures on Absentee Ballot Requests

Changed my mind, Christie has no chance.

Posted by: Dr. Do-it-yourself at October 29, 2009 10:18 AM (DIYmd)

127

Hey I actually gave you "Allahs" theory in a post last week.  I pointed out that Scozzo was more likely to take votes from Owens because NY has a Conservative party and the repubs are squishes.

 

Geez, why do I try?

Posted by: lonetown at October 29, 2009 10:25 AM (6q//N)

128

The only way Hoffman wins, or Scof. for that matter, is if they win massively. Otherwise the Dems will cheat.

Remember the Governors race in Washington, State. King County found "lost votes" every time the Republican moved ahead. WE are talking about weeks after the election during the contest period.

Franken won by 300 votes. Acorn signed up 40,000 voters in that election.

Posted by: davod at October 29, 2009 10:34 AM (GUZAT)

129 Maybe the Republicans were a "third party" up to 1856, with the Know-Nothings taking the role of second party in 1855. But then the Republicans came in second in 1856 so, maybe not even then. By 1860 the Republicans had an even more consistent and electable platform than they had in 1856. No-one else had their degree of organisation, will to power, and popularity. So they were not a "third party". What happened in 1860 is that it was the turn of other "third parties" to shatter the Democrat coalition. There was a North Democrat, a South Democrat, and a Constitutional Union.

Posted by: Zimriel at October 29, 2009 11:15 AM (ouQK5)

130 Vic: Not so; in fact I had intended to vote 3rd Party in the last election until Sarah Palin showed up.

I would have voted 3rd party, if there was a saner alternative.  Libertarians?  "Legalize hookers and weed!" just does not appeal as a viable platform.  Is there a third party for people who outgrew frat parties?

Posted by: oLD gUY at October 29, 2009 12:00 PM (P/D33)

131 Just call her "Scuzzy", it close enough.

And complies with the Truth In Libeling laws.


Posted by: Larry Sheldon at October 29, 2009 01:00 PM (OmeRL)

132

"Legalize hookers and weed!" just does not appeal as a viable platform.  Is there a third party for people who outgrew frat parties?

You have to admit that would be smaller government.

Posted by: Vic at October 29, 2009 01:39 PM (CDUiN)

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Posted by: xlzhengnan at October 29, 2009 09:19 PM (Mj2H/)

134 Something I don't understand:

If conservatism is passe' then why wouldn't Kos Kids support Hoffman?

Doesn't that mean a win for the "mainstream liberal" democrat?

Or perhaps they know that true conservatism wins most of the time.

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