October 31, 2010

CNN Final Generic: Ten Points, 52-42
— Ace

As hunter, outdoosman, and Lyme disease awareness advocate Wellington Winchell Wolf sagely observed, "Gentlemen, let's not start plucking each other's ticks just yet."

But 52-42 is pretty solid, and while I don't eally want to bank on it, I know a lot of people are adding on 5 points to represent typical Republican overperformance at the actual polling places as compared to the polls.

"Six in ten suburban voters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate for the U.S. House on Tuesday,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That's not good news for the Democrats since most of the seats in play are in suburban districts."

...

The survey indicates that 44 percent have a favorable view of the GOP, with 43 percent saying they hold an unfavorable view. Forty-six percent of the country has a favorable view of the Democratic Party compared to 47 percent with an unfavorable view.

Fox News' last poll showed the public split on the GOP -- 44% favorable, 44% unfavorable -- but had Democrats at 42% favorable, 50% unfavorable.

Although previous elections have been wrongly called "permanent realignments," this election will produce one permanent, but limited, realignment: The South will now be almost uniformly red. Democrats have been able to hang on to congressional districts there, and even statewide, based on talking a good game about moderation and being blue-dogs and other such bullshit, and also based on the South's let's-get-over-it-already animus against Lincoln's Republican Party.

That's over. A few Democrats will persist in majority-minority urban districts, and maybe one fluke hold-out, but from now on the South will finally be Republican territory up and down the ballot. The spectacle of so many "Blue Dogs" voting with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama on the stimulus and health care put lie to the idea of a "conservative Democrat."

Posted by: Ace at 11:31 AM | Comments (100)
Post contains 317 words, total size 2 kb.

1
I don't eally want to dip my junk in pudding.


But I'm gonna.

Posted by: Dang Straights at October 31, 2010 11:33 AM (WIWkv)

2 But ticks are delicious with butter and a little garlic!

Posted by: Zombie Dom DeLuise at October 31, 2010 11:33 AM (bYNFK)

3 I'm not going to dip my McRib in pudding yet, but a 10 point spread in a CNN poll is more than solid.  It's earth shattering historically if it's accurate.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 31, 2010 11:35 AM (AZWim)

4 Greg should be here in a minute agreeing with this poll.

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 11:37 AM (hVDig)

5 I want this to be so big that it makes the GOP nervous.

Posted by: harrison at October 31, 2010 11:38 AM (1GXLU)

6 If there was a wave, it would be 60-40.  Face it, there ain't no wave....CONS.

Posted by: Mrs. Charlie Crist AKA Greg at October 31, 2010 11:38 AM (Snu7z)

7
And it has NOTHING to do with Obama.

/nods

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 31, 2010 11:38 AM (KL+Ut)

8 Greg will be here soon. He's trying to dry his tears and put on a brave face.

Posted by: Gregs Mom at October 31, 2010 11:39 AM (BAtLQ)

9

Posted by: Holger at October 31, 2010 11:39 AM (V9Q+f)

10 If there was a wave, it would be 60-40.  Face it, there ain't no wave....CONS.

Posted by: Mrs. Charlie Crist AKA Greg at October 31, 2010 04:38 PM (Snu7z)

CONS?  I thought we were your buddies.  *sniff*

Posted by: Editor at October 31, 2010 11:39 AM (YX6i/)

11 I want this to be so big that it makes the GOP nervous.

This.

Posted by: Methos at October 31, 2010 11:40 AM (Ew1k4)

12 The GOP has to win every single race this year, including the White House for this election to be a wave.

Posted by: Gerg at October 31, 2010 11:40 AM (OF0tv)

13

Come on Greg. You said you were going to stick with us regardless of what the polls or election results say.

Let's here your expert analysis.

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 11:41 AM (hVDig)

14 Dogcatcher election in Des Moines is going big to the Democrat.  Suck it, my fellow CCCs.

Posted by: gErg at October 31, 2010 11:41 AM (MMC8r)

15 Greg, put down that Chicken or I'm calling the SPCA. It isn't natural.

Posted by: Holger at October 31, 2010 11:42 AM (V9Q+f)

16 The South?  Who needs them?  Bunch of toothless redneck hicks.

Now, please, quiet down, get out of our way and let us take care of everything for you.

Posted by: Northeast Liberal Establishment at October 31, 2010 11:42 AM (EW49d)

17 Unless all democrats everywhere driven from office and torn apart by angry mobs, there is no wave. Suck it, Cons.

Posted by: Grug at October 31, 2010 11:42 AM (OF0tv)

18 Does anyone else think that Ace put this up just to make Greg cry?

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 11:43 AM (hVDig)

19 @12

The Cons must also win the Praetorship of the Romulan Empire and a majority of the Romulan Senate seats to validate this so-called "wave".  Otherwise they may as well have stayed home and not bothered with voting. 

Fucking losers.

Posted by: Klingon Chancellor G'reg at October 31, 2010 11:44 AM (kmmbv)

20 Unless the GOP wins 536 seats, there was now wave.

Posted by: Glerg at October 31, 2010 11:44 AM (Ew1k4)

21 Where's Greg?  Oh bother!

Posted by: Ray at October 31, 2010 11:45 AM (BP6Z1)

22 Does anyone else think that Ace put this up just to make Greg cry?

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 04:43 PM (hVDig)

Seems pretty obvious, to me.  

Unfortunately, the ugly proceeding in Oakland are making me cry.

Posted by: Editor at October 31, 2010 11:45 AM (YX6i/)

23 The Ipsos/BloChow/Cosmetology College poll shows Crist is holding on to second place in the Florida Senate race. There is no wave.

Posted by: Grog at October 31, 2010 11:45 AM (OF0tv)

24 We still have the Chocolate Jesus.

Posted by: Grag at October 31, 2010 11:46 AM (BAtLQ)

25 I like the polling trend, but here's politics today:

Progressives are Marxists/Communists.
Bona Fide Democrats are Progressives/Fascists.
"Blue Dogs" are Bona Fide Democrats.
RINOS are "Blue Dogs".
Republicans are RINOS.
Conservatives are Republicans.
Tea Partiers are Conservatives.

Simply, the American constituency that self-identifies as "center right" isn't... at least as to demands on government intervention and size. We've moved Left. Hopefully the pendulum has a real swing Right and not a mere halt of the ratcheting, government gears.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 31, 2010 11:47 AM (swuwV)

26 Although previous elections have been wrongly called "permanent realignments," this election will produce one permanent, but limited, realignment: The South will now be almost uniformly red.

It's gotten so bad for them that in one of the districts in Georgia (the one that shows up on the map as Likely Dem), the Democrat incumbent John Barrow has been running ads touting that he voted with the Republicans over 50% of the time. He also apparently spent much of their debate time agreeing with his Republican opponent's ideas, which made for a pretty embarrassing radio ad.


Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at October 31, 2010 11:47 AM (GLKw5)

27 Anyone who claims to be on our side while looking foward to being right on a dissapointing year while citing polls known to be wrong and claiming 55 seats is not a wave should not be taken serious; I'd also support Ace banning him come Nov 2 and if he keeps up being a prick the way christoph was

Posted by: YRM on iPod Touch at October 31, 2010 11:48 AM (xQuuU)

28 The question is no longer whether the GOP can win the election resoundingly.  The question is what we can do and what we will do when the "overlooked" ballots start turning up in people's automobile trunks.  Do we have the guts to stand and vigorously defend our votes from attack?"  We've always said that "if it's not close they can't steal it", but that doesn't take into account Obama's DOJ.  If it's not close, they certainly can steal it, and if we have no plan to respond, we'll just have to live with it.

Posted by: Mangas Colorados at October 31, 2010 11:49 AM (uaPbX)

29 Hopefully the pendulum has a real swing Right and not a mere halt of the ratcheting, government gears.

It just occurred that the talk of Imminent Apocalypse that pushed His Emptiness into the White House was enough of an 'Oh Shit' moment to a lot of people to shock them out of their blithe ignorance/apathy.  Particularly when Ol' JugEars fumbled the ball so badly on the Competence and Results issues.

Posted by: nickless at October 31, 2010 11:50 AM (MMC8r)

30 There will be no dawn... for Greg.

Posted by: Saruman the Red at October 31, 2010 11:50 AM (JdM1M)

31 I iz busy in the other freads, no fares.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:51 AM (Gr1V1)

32 16 The South?  Who needs them?  Bunch of toothless redneck hicks. Now, please, quiet down, get out of our way and let us take care of everything for you. Whatca ya talkin bout Willis?

Posted by: Different strokes with way less coke at October 31, 2010 11:51 AM (Ceb/w)

33

Look how well Manchin is doing in WV. He is such a progressive that in his last commercial he defecates on Obama's portrait and wipes his ass with a copy of the healthcare bill and he is very popular.

There is no damn WAVE! 

Posted by: Grig at October 31, 2010 11:51 AM (OF0tv)

34

"Come on Greg. You said you were going to stick with us regardless of what the polls or election results say.

Let's here your expert analysis."

I've said before that the GOP is doing great on the generic ballot question, but it's not translating to the Senate races.  A 10 point generic ballot advantage should mean Raese wins in WV, for example.  But he's losing and it's not even a close race now.  And the early voting in NV has not been going well for the GOP, either.  They're only running slightly ahead of the Dems, and if voters mostly adhere to party lines, then Angle will need to win Independents by a high-teens margin, which won't happen.  Ralston only made his prediction of Reid by 2 pts after he saw the early vote breakdown.

It's very likely the GOP will obliterate their opponents in very red districts/states and run up the score huge.  But they will not do well in key states like WV, WA, CA and maybe even PA.

Heck the GOP might lose the Governor's race in Ohio.  If Strickland wins, Republicans can look forward to losing all the close Senate races that evening, and the generic ballot question will be shown to be meaningless.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:52 AM (huyI8)

35
The South?  Who needs them?  Bunch of toothless redneck hicks.

Now, please, quiet down, get out of our way and let us take care of everything for you.

Posted by: Northeast Liberal Establishment at October 31, 2010 04:42 PM (EW49d)

teeeheeee!


Posted by: Dang Straights at October 31, 2010 11:53 AM (WIWkv)

36

"Look how well Manchin is doing in WV. He is such a progressive that in his last commercial he defecates on Obama's portrait and wipes his ass with a copy of the healthcare bill and he is very popular.

There is no damn WAVE! "


Sure, now the whining starts about why Manchin won, lol.  I'm sure there will be many posts like this early Tuesday night.  And I'm looking forward to laughing at all of them.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:54 AM (huyI8)

37 Greg can't comment now, he'is out trick-or-treating with mommy. You know the Progs won't allow their kid out in a costume after dark. Not all aloooone. Oh Noessssss. Might get snatched, the precious. Much safer in the basement. Bwwaaaaahhahahahahahaha.

Posted by: Some other Jackson at October 31, 2010 11:55 AM (WAxE/)

38 Off topic, but the Packers/Jets game was the worst played contest in the NFL this season.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:55 AM (huyI8)

39

Greg,

Do you understand that the generic ballot this late in the race means that 52% of the people polled, democrat, republican or independent are planning to vote for the republican?

You early voting bs is just that it's bs. If dems and independents are voting for republicans you still lose. You just lose by more.

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 11:55 AM (hVDig)

40 If Strickland wins, Republicans can look forward to losing all the close Senate races that evening,

The new metric from Greg Central.

Posted by: nickless at October 31, 2010 11:56 AM (MMC8r)

41 Actually, the thing that should be terrifying the D's was the recent mayoral election in Toronto last week. Toronto has been run by the Left for years, so of course city expenses shot up, while city services were repeatedly cut. The entire political establishment swung behind the trendy Leftist gay candidate, and mocked the fat, schlub conservative candidate. The pollsters on the eve of the election announced that the race was neck and neck, and far too close to call. The schlub won by twelve points. Here's hoping the same effect occurs in the US on Tuesday - that the Wave invalidates all of the pollsters' models, and we do much, much, better than predicted.

Posted by: Oregon Is Dumber Than Dirt at October 31, 2010 11:56 AM (Hu/Da)

42 I notice Nevada and Wisconsin is no longer on gregs list.

Posted by: Thursby at October 31, 2010 11:57 AM (5usKd)

43 It's amazing how much closer to reality these MSM polls get when it really matters and they can actually be judged by a vote.

In 1994, the Republicans only enjoyed a 4 point advantage in this poll.  This "should" be truly stunning.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 31, 2010 11:58 AM (Baf0e)

44 "Anyone who claims to be on our side while looking foward to being right on a dissapointing year while citing polls known to be wrong"

Which polls are known to be wrong?  Is PPP wrong for saying Manchin has pulled away?  Or is it Rasmussen that's wrong in saying that Manchin has gained nearly 10 pts and is now the favorite to win?

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:58 AM (huyI8)

45 38 Off topic, but the Packers/Jets game was the worst played contest in the NFL this season.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 04:55 PM (huyI

Did you not see the Redskins Bears last week?  Good God you can't even get your football right.

Posted by: buzzion at October 31, 2010 11:59 AM (oVQFe)

46

I am so looking forward to coming here and laughing Tuesday night. Of course, I am a friendless, social retard, and genetic mistake so I kinda just walk down the street giggling to myself anyway.

Except I can't do it by the grammar school anymore. That Mehgan's law thingie.  

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 11:59 AM (OF0tv)

47
In 1994, the Republicans only enjoyed a 4 point advantage in this poll.  This "should" be truly stunning.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 31, 2010 04:58 PM (Baf0e)

Please tell me you blew the smoke away from the barrel.

Posted by: Editor at October 31, 2010 11:59 AM (YX6i/)

48 10 points?  gee, a couple of more points and we might actually beat out the voter fraud that is inevitable.

Posted by: wiserbud at October 31, 2010 12:00 PM (EW49d)

49

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 04:58 PM (huyI

Go out and get laid man.  Go get drunk.  Something.  You hang out 20 hours a day in front of your computer reading poll numbers and trolling. 

Reading them poorly I might add.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 31, 2010 12:01 PM (AZWim)

50 Here's the funny part.  6 months and about a billion dollars in advertising ago, Rasmussen had the Republicans around +10.  Now here we are +10.

What a waste of money.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 31, 2010 12:01 PM (Baf0e)

51 A 10 point generic ballot advantage should mean Raese wins in WV, for example.  But he's losing and it's not even a close race now.


1. Manchin has an approval rating of 69%.  He should be winning this going away--wave or no wave.

2.  WV is not remotely a Republican bastion.

3. Rasmussen has him leading by only 3 points.

Greg, the reason everybody here thinks you're a Moby is because you don't argue remotely in good faith.  There's so little difference between you and an actual one that trying to make the distinction as to your intentions is pointless.

Posted by: AD at October 31, 2010 12:02 PM (O2/Ya)

52 What a waste of money.

Bite your tongue.

Posted by: The MSM at October 31, 2010 12:03 PM (MMC8r)

53

Forget my earlier posts about: Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington, Illinois, Kentucky, etc.

I will only discuss West Virginia right now. Except of course when I won't anymore.

And of course, I won't even address the House elections. Because 60 seats turn over EVERY time. Look it up.

Posted by: Grog at October 31, 2010 12:04 PM (OF0tv)

54

Greg you do know that all early voting tells us is WHO voted, not HOW they voted.  Also, not every state has early voting.  So you are basing your assumption on the GOP not doing so well, off of the early voting results, from 2 states out of 50? 

Posted by: opus at October 31, 2010 12:05 PM (IebeI)

55 nickless@29,

True to a point. The proof will be in the, um, pudding. I mean, we're still afraid to talk about SS reform and the dissolution of wastes of money/time like the DoE and the DoEd. Or more deference to States and balanced budgets.

There's talking around the big issues, but almost no one in office or running for office will make declarative, truly reformationally Right statements.

The Tea Party caucus will need to punch above its weight and pound the feds into pudding. Dippable pudding.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 31, 2010 12:06 PM (swuwV)

56

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 04:52 PM (huyI

You're a real piece of work.   On the last thread you said the Dems were leading in early voting in NV.    Did you catch my reply to you that proved you wrong?  Is that why you're, now, saying the Repubs are leading?

If so, then you should have read that I posted Angle up 55% - 38% with independents.

Like I said on the last thread.   Try harder.   You still look like a dumbass.

Posted by: Steph at October 31, 2010 12:06 PM (ZfkPl)

57 A 10 point generic ballot advantage should mean Raese wins in WV, for example.  But he's losing and it's not even a close race now.

It's amazing what running against Obamacare will do for someone's numbers.  Hopefully the people of WV are smart enough to see through this pathetic and shallow lie and do the right thing.

Gerg, even if Manchin wins, it's because we knew enough to move to the right.  Now, if he doesn't govern that way, he's not going to be there very long.

The left's ideology has failed and anyone who continues to support it will be gone.  If not this cycle, then the next.

Posted by: wiserbud at October 31, 2010 12:09 PM (EW49d)

58 "1. Manchin has an approval rating of 69%.  He should be winning this going away--wave or no wave.

2.  WV is not remotely a Republican bastion.

3. Rasmussen has him leading by only 3 points.

Rasmussen only has Manchin up 3, when it had Raese up big in the poll before that.  He picked up the same momentum that the maligned PPP poll did.  And this is a race for Senate and WV HATES Obama.   Raese is a vote to check the Obama agenda.  This race was winnable in this climate and it was lost.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:09 PM (huyI8)

59 Greg: "Off topic, but the Packers/Jets game was the worst played contest in the NFL this season."

Beg to differ. Again. As a Cowboy fan, I can safely assert that all but one Cowboys game this season have been the worst played contests in the NFL this season.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 31, 2010 12:10 PM (swuwV)

60

"Go out and get laid man.  Go get drunk.  Something.  You hang out 20 hours a day in front of your computer reading poll numbers and trolling."

Come on, people. Have some sympathy. You all realize that I have no where else to go, right? 

Posted by: Greggy at October 31, 2010 12:10 PM (OF0tv)

61

Posted by: Steph at October 31, 2010 05:06 PM (ZfkPl)

Steph he's completely worthless.  I would love to know where he's getting his information from because I really don't think he's doing it himself.  He's got to be on a mailing list for it or getting it all from a website.  Last week he attempted to claim that Scott Brown was not campaigning for any House candidates in MA before being told off by several others that yes he was.

Posted by: buzzion at October 31, 2010 12:13 PM (oVQFe)

62

Heck the GOP might lose the Governor's race in Ohio.  If Strickland wins, Republicans can look forward to losing all the close Senate races that evening, and the generic ballot question will be shown to be meaningless.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010

No.  Strickland is not going to win.  The polling done by the Dispatch and others is once again oversampling Democrats.  This is the built in  fallacy of most of the published polls.  The internal polls that the candidate runs are much more reliable.  How can Portman be creaming Lee Fisher in the polls and Kasich be close to being tied to Strickland?  It doesn't add up.  Fisher is known statewide; he was Attorney General back in the '80's under Dick Celeste.

Kasich wins 54-46.  It just won't be that close.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch says... at October 31, 2010 12:13 PM (sJTmU)

63 "You're a real piece of work.   On the last thread you said the Dems were leading in early voting in NV.    Did you catch my reply to you that proved you wrong?  Is that why you're, now, saying the Repubs are leading?"

Steph, you smell.

THIS is what I wrote in the last thread..

How about the GOP not doing very well in early voting in NV and WV?  Angle will have to win the Independent vote by around 15 pts to even have a shot.  And Raese is basically dead in the water already in WV.

I never said the Dems were leading in early voting in NV.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:15 PM (huyI8)

64 Rasmussen only has Manchin up 3, when it had Raese up big in the poll before that.  He picked up the same momentum that the maligned PPP poll did.

That's fascinating.  It doesn't change the fact that what you posted was bull and, given your response, it appears to be something you already knew.

Again, you don't argue in good faith.

And this is a race for Senate and WV HATES Obama.   Raese is a vote to check the Obama agenda.  This race was winnable in this climate and it was lost.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:09 PM (huyI

And Manchin has been running against Obama.  Greg, it's just not believable that you know the specific details of anything that would help your argument, but just coincidentally gloss over everything that contradicts it.  This reads like talking points.  It doesn't read like somebody arguing in good faith.

Posted by: AD at October 31, 2010 12:15 PM (O2/Ya)

65 You're going to LOSE!!!! LOSE, I tell you! And your little dog, too!

Posted by: Grug, Moby Of Doom at October 31, 2010 12:16 PM (Hu/Da)

66

Posted by: buzzion at October 31, 2010 05:13 PM (oVQFe)

I know what he is.   Trolls can't hide themselves well for very long.    It's tough for them keeping up with all the BS they spewed.

Posted by: Steph at October 31, 2010 12:18 PM (ZfkPl)

67 Greg, it's just not believable that you know the specific details of anything that would help your argument, but just coincidentally gloss over everything that contradicts it. This reads like talking points. It doesn't read like somebody arguing in good faith.

Not to mention anything that vaguely bolsters his point is trumpeted with 'This race is LOST!!!!!!eleventy!'  That takes dogmatic zeal, and a real commitment to the outcome you're seeking.

Posted by: nickless at October 31, 2010 12:19 PM (MMC8r)

68 Greg is just doing his job which is voter suppression. He just picked the wrong blog to do it on. He doesn't realize that we would crawl through glass to beat the commies in office now.

Posted by: robtr at October 31, 2010 12:20 PM (hVDig)

69 LOL.  Greg says Ohio is in jeopardy.  That must be why Obama was campaigning there (see newest post above). 

And I guess the reason the gymnasium was 1/3rd empty was because everyone already knew that the Dems are winning Ohio so they didn't need to bother to come and see their president campaign. 

Posted by: Y-not at October 31, 2010 12:20 PM (UcOiF)

70 Greg, before you disappear forever from our comments Tuesday night, you will tell us how much Axelrod paid you, right?  Just for old times' sake?

Posted by: Methos at October 31, 2010 12:21 PM (Ew1k4)

71

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 04:58 PM (huyI

no asshole, PPP was wrong w/ Hoffman and others too, Ras does have Manchin leading but it's not the ridicilous lead PPP has him w/ and it's w/ in the MOE w/ 08 like turnout which won't happen, you're not on our side, you're a troll that popped up to try and claim a 8 seat gain including taking out the NV majority leader and the biggest pickup in the house since 1948 would be a dissapointment, you keep pushing the goal post and i've caught on to you, you're a troll meant to discourage us

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:21 PM (xQuuU)

72 "Rasmussen only has Manchin up 3, when it had Raese up big in the poll before that.  He picked up the same momentum that the maligned PPP poll did.

That's fascinating.  It doesn't change the fact that what you posted was bull and, given your response, it appears to be something you already knew."

Nonsense.  Rasmussen and PPP are showing the same thing.  PPP probably has a 1 pt Dem advantage and Rasmussen has a 1pt GOP advantage.   Raese is a goner.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:21 PM (huyI8)

73 Wyden's ahead in Oregon! This is proof that there is no Wave!

Posted by: Grug, Moby Of Doom at October 31, 2010 12:22 PM (Hu/Da)

74 Greg you also have it backwards on the WV race.  The only reason that Raese is even close is because of the mood of the electorate.  Once Byrd passed away, every pundit, pollster and Dem politician, said that Manchin was a shoe in for the vacated Senate seat. 

Posted by: opus at October 31, 2010 12:22 PM (IebeI)

75 Someone was asking where Greg is getting his info. Based on the one Democrat he claimed he was supporting in Wisconsin ('cause he's a real concerned conservative, ya know, and therefore voting a straight R ticket), I'd say this is his source:  http://uppitywis.org/

Posted by: Y-not at October 31, 2010 12:23 PM (UcOiF)

76

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:21 PM (huyI

the troll has been caught, only Dems think Ras oversamples Republicans

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:24 PM (xQuuU)

77 Just a quick comment to poke Greg in the eye with. On average, if the incumbent is below 50% and does not have at least a 6% lead over his or her opponent, then they almost always lose. Most of the close races that have the dhimmis slightly ahead fall into this danger zone. Using this metric - 79 seats in the house and 10 in the senate.

Posted by: Major Graham at October 31, 2010 12:24 PM (XEPIv)

78 "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!" "My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all" "Our initial assessment is that they will all die" "I blame Al-Jazeera - they are marketing for the Americans!" "God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis." "They're coming to surrender or be burned in their tanks." "No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" "Be assured. Baghdad is safe, protected" "Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" "We are not afraid of the Americans. Allah has condemned them. They are stupid. They are stupid" (dramatic pause) "and they are condemned." "The Americans, they always depend on a method what I call ... stupid, silly. All I ask is check yourself. Do not in fact repeat their lies." "I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly." "I can assure you that those villains will recognize, will discover in appropriate time in the future how stupid they are and how they are pretending things which have never taken place." "We have destroyed 2 tanks, fighter planes, 2 helicopters and their shovels - We have driven them back." "The authority of the civil defense ... issued a warning to the civilian population not to pick up any of those pencils because they are booby traps," he said, adding that the British and American forces were "immoral mercenaries" and "war criminals" for such behavior. "I am not talking about the American people and the British people," he said. "I am talking about those mercenaries. ... They have started throwing those pencils, but they are not pencils, they are booby traps to kill the children." "We have them surrounded in their tanks" "The American press is all about lies! All they tell is lies, lies and more lies!" "I have detailed information about the situation...which completely proves that what they allege are illusions . . . They lie every day." "Lying is forbidden in Iraq. President Saddam Hussein will tolerate nothing but truthfulness as he is a man of great honor and integrity. Everyone is encouraged to speak freely of the truths evidenced in their eyes and hearts." "Now even the American command is under siege. We are hitting it from the north, east, south and west. We chase them here and they chase us there. But at the end we are the people who are laying siege to them. And it is not them who are besieging us."

Posted by: Grug, Moby Of Doom at October 31, 2010 12:24 PM (Hu/Da)

79 the troll has been caught, only Dems think Ras oversamples Republicans

Oh, he was outed a couple of weeks ago when he slipped up and started talking about "them" instead of "us" when referring to conservatives. 

He's the worst moby ever. 

Posted by: Y-not at October 31, 2010 12:25 PM (UcOiF)

80 Nonsense.  Rasmussen and PPP are showing the same thing.  PPP probably has a 1 pt Dem advantage and Rasmussen has a 1pt GOP advantage.   Raese is a goner.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:21 PM (huyI


You said

A 10 point generic ballot advantage should mean Raese wins in WV, for example.  But he's losing and it's not even a close race now.

A.) 6 points, even if you were going to accept that is hardly "not even close"

B.) Rasmussen is much more reputable than PPP.

You posted something that's bull.  It seems from your follow-up posts that you knew it was bull.

You're full of shit, Greg.

Posted by: AD at October 31, 2010 12:25 PM (O2/Ya)

81 "Greg you also have it backwards on the WV race.  The only reason that Raese is even close is because of the mood of the electorate.  Once Byrd passed away, every pundit, pollster and Dem politician, said that Manchin was a shoe in for the vacated Senate seat. "

Raese had a consistent lead in most polls until the whole "hick" controversy.  Without that, he might have won.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:26 PM (huyI8)

82

THIS is what I wrote in the last thread..

How about the GOP not doing very well in early voting in NV and WV?  Angle will have to win the Independent vote by around 15 pts to even have a shot.  And Raese is basically dead in the water already in WV.
I never said the Dems were leading in early voting in NV.
Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:15 PM (huyI

I know what you said.    Read your entire post.    You were using that as an argument for why Angle would lose in NV.    If you knew that the Repubs were leading in early voting, why didn't you say that?    And, what was that, again, about how much Angle would have to win independents?    She leads by 18 pts with independents.

Like I said.   Try harder.   You still look like a dumbass.

Posted by: Steph at October 31, 2010 12:26 PM (ZfkPl)

83

Greg is a troll and I will petition he be banned soon or at least just for Nov 2:

- didn't come on the blog until the last couple weeks

- I have been in the minority opinion on this blog and when I get in heated debates I never gleefully looked foward to being right about a good result for Dems and never replied back cooly w/ copy and paste arguments, other morons who have been in this position like me know where we're coming from

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:26 PM (xQuuU)

84 "Just a quick comment to poke Greg in the eye with. On average, if the incumbent is below 50% and does not have at least a 6% lead over his or her opponent, then they almost always lose. Most of the close races that have the dhimmis slightly ahead fall into this danger zone. Using this metric - 79 seats in the house and 10 in the senate."

79 and 10...yep, that would be a wave.  Let's see how that metric holds up Tuesday.

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:27 PM (huyI8)

85 TD Tampa Bay!, um, yeah sorry watching Football; stupid excessive celebration penalty, sorry I think the guys should be allowed to have fun

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:28 PM (xQuuU)

86

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:27 PM (huyI

not taking the senate doesn't mean it's not a wave election idiot, look up 1930, the economy was in a depression and Dems took 97 seats in the house and 8 in the senate and came up short of the majority, but yep that wasn't a wave even though it set up Dem dominance for decades to come in congress

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:31 PM (xQuuU)

87 "Greg is a troll and I will petition he be banned soon or at least just for Nov 2:"

Sure you will, because you're afraid I'm right. 


Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 12:31 PM (huyI8)

88

- I have been in the minority opinion on this blog and when I get in heated debates I never gleefully looked foward to being right about a good result for Dems and never replied back cooly w/ copy and paste arguments, other morons who have been in this position like me know where we're coming from

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 05:26 PM (xQuuU)

Seriously, when I was arguing about O'Donnell, I still made it clear I wanted Coons to lose and I didn't show up in every single damn thread about her...and only in those threads...and only to discuss O'Donnell.

I actually want to keep this going through Nov. 2nd, though.  Wait till the election's over.

Posted by: AD at October 31, 2010 12:32 PM (O2/Ya)

89

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 05:31 PM (xQuuU)

forgive me, 52 seats in the house for Dems

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:32 PM (xQuuU)

90

Posted by: AD at October 31, 2010 05:32 PM (O2/Ya)

I agree, I too am in the minority opinion of O'Donell and you don;t see me bringing it up on every thread in fact I try to stay away from that subject, Greg is a troll and we should treat him as such

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:34 PM (xQuuU)

91 >>79 and 10...yep, that would be a wave. Let's see how that metric holds up Tuesday. I can't believe you're still at this. Your entire argument rests on the fact that you and you alone believe taking 50+ seats in the House, at least 6 in the Senate and absolutely smoking the donks in the national governor's races, is not a wave election. Nobody, not anyone here nor any serious political actor agrees with you. Not even St. Norbert. Give at rest. You aren't winning any arguments here because nobody agrees with your opinion of what constitutes a wave. Nobody. That and it appears you're sort of a dick.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2010 12:34 PM (VW9/y)

92 Sure you will, because you're afraid I'm right. 

Posted by: Greg at October 31, 2010 05:31 PM (huyI

Not at all.    It's just that our patience for stupidity has a limit, and even a cat gets tired of batting a rat around. 

Posted by: Steph at October 31, 2010 12:37 PM (ZfkPl)

93

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2010 05:34 PM (VW9/y)

exactly, does anyone think Obama is happy the Dems will "only lose" 55 house seats and 8 senate seats including the Senate Majority Leader and that come 2012 they have to defend senate seats in red states? give me a break, there are wave elections w/o transfer of power in a chamber, look up 1884, 1930 as good examples

Posted by: YRM (Making A Big Bowl Of Pudding For Tuesday Night) at October 31, 2010 12:37 PM (xQuuU)

94

Raese had a consistent lead in most polls until the whole "hick" controversy.  Without that, he might have won.

 

Come on Greg, try a little harder.  Manchin had a large lead when he first announced his candidacy, and as time passed that lead kept getting smaller.  After Raese took the lead, he never held that lead consistently the polling was always fluctuating.  As I said before, Raese would of never even had a chance of taking the lead, if not for the mood of the electorate.   


Posted by: opus at October 31, 2010 12:40 PM (IebeI)

95

Only if it 79+ House seats and at least a 50/50 Senate is it a wave. I realize that Democrats will be destroyed in the south, slaughtered in the mid-west, will lose any hope of controlling redistricting in most the statehouses in the country. This only 2 years after the bestest prez evah! in history was made king for life by the world.

BUT I DECIDE WHAT A WAVE IS, FUCKERS!

fwap, fwap, fwap, fwap, fwap, fwap, fwap 

 

Posted by: Greggy at October 31, 2010 01:18 PM (OF0tv)

96 Just as I suspected, the generic ballot numbers are moving towards Gallup's numbers rather than Gallup moving towards them as we approach Ejection Day (or should I say, dEjection Day). Two weeks ago the RCP average generic was 6% towards Repubs ... while Gallup sat at 17%. Today Gallup has slipped to 14% but the Fox is now is at 13% and CNN at 10%. The average itself has moved up to 7.6%. This is the true "Enthusiasm Gap." If it holds at 10% or above, this is the Super Wave Grandpa told us about.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 31, 2010 01:52 PM (90bLF)

97 I think Ace nails it exactly. By their own actions, the Democrats have proven beyond a doubt that there is no such thing as a moderate Democrat. They are the party of the hard left.

Posted by: theMachiavellian at October 31, 2010 03:44 PM (MZevL)

98 Ace wrote:

Although previous elections have been wrongly called "permanent realignments," this election will produce one permanent, but limited, realignment: The South will now be almost uniformly red. Democrats have been able to hang on to congressional districts there, and even statewide ...

That's over. A few Democrats will persist in majority-minority urban districts, and maybe one fluke hold-out, but from now on the South will finally be Republican territory up and down the ballot.

Yep.

40+ years so far as a native of Tennessee ... we understood when the nation was still learning about Al Gore, we knew why he was doomed from the start when others didn't; we knew the guy, we know our own, which is why Gore even lost his home state -- who does that? Even Mondale and Dukakis won their home states ...

I agree with Ace (except to offer that very, very little is actually, literally, permanent in politics, but perhaps that's a given). Bottom line is this: in the near future, at least, and outside of the liberal hot spots (in our case Memphis, etc.) ... yes: the left has lost the South, pretty much completely.

And not a moment too soon.

P.S. Heckuva first pitch by W tonight, eh? ;-) That video of it and his Dad wore me out ... I miss the guy more and more each and every day ...

Posted by: Bill in TN at October 31, 2010 05:50 PM (5KYBU)

Posted by: gayuh at December 20, 2010 05:22 AM (flXoi)

Posted by: New Era Hats at July 12, 2011 11:54 PM (UUuBd)

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