February 28, 2006

CBS Oversampled Democrats For Bush Poll, Again
— Ace

It hardly even needs to be pointed out anymore.

CBS weighted its sample, but still only to the point where they counted 289 Republicans to 381 Democrats.

This is always a polling issue, with good arguments on both sides. Some say one shouldn't weight polls for party ID, as party ID fluctuates-- maybe there simply are more Democrats now. Some say weight the results, as we know there is (approximately) parity between the parties.

CBS apparently chooses a mixed approach, weighting results, but not to the point of near-parity.

It's a hard question to resolve. However, I'm pretty sure that Democrats have not claimed an approximately 33% advantage over the Republicans.

Could the split now be 40 to 30? Perhaps. But such a sea change seems unlikely.

Much More... Reactions from the left and right of the blogosphere at the Blogometer.

I think this poll is rigged, but they usually are rigged to favor Democrats a bit. Rigged or not, it's still not good news for Bush.

Posted by: Ace at 10:01 AM | Comments (30)
Post contains 181 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Fascist.

Posted by: Mary Mapes at February 28, 2006 10:09 AM (uTD2Y)

2 And yet you jumped right on it yesterday, joining in with the voices of gloom and doom. Experience has taught us that all lamestream media reports have to be run through the Bush Derangement Syndrome filter.

Ace, is it possible that Massachusetts is working it's insidious dark mojo on you? Since you are now in a state where Teddy "Splash" Kennedy runs unopposed for reelection, there must be some kind of infectious insanity at work.

Posted by: Log Cabin at February 28, 2006 10:17 AM (Vsh3q)

3 Ditto what Log Cabin said.

Hey, how's that radio show you used to have, Ase?

Posted by: Bart at February 28, 2006 10:21 AM (tKvD7)

4 One of your commenters, West, pointed out the huge flaw in this bogus poll as soon as you posted about this yesterday.

(We might as well use this thread to flame Texas)

Posted by: Bart at February 28, 2006 10:24 AM (tKvD7)

5 Pretty interesting that Drudge was printing excerpts of the new book on Bush, Strategery, today. Bush and his team were absolutely roasting CBS for their skewed reporting in the stuff Drudge was posting today.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 28, 2006 10:33 AM (J8+2b)

6 And yet you jumped right on it yesterday, joining in with the voices of gloom and doom.

Do you really want a happy, optimistic Ace? The world would cease to exist as we know it.

Anyway, is that Horserace Blog guy still around? I consider him a polling god.

Posted by: shawn at February 28, 2006 10:42 AM (H5cZK)

7 You can tell that the poll has issues. In the Blogometer post, a Dem pollster defended it by saying:

"recalculates the CBS job approval results for the most recent survey using the average party composition reported on their last three surveys ... the Bush approval percentage still rounds to 34%."

So let me get this straight. CBS adjusts the data in their poll by comparing it to data in their *other* polls. Nope, no chance for error or bias there. This would be like CBS authenticating new National Guard documents by comparing them to the Mapes National Guard documents.

Posted by: Steve L. at February 28, 2006 10:49 AM (hpZf2)

8 Wow. That "logic" that the Dem pollster, Mark Blumenthal, uses is just slightly more twisted then the Chewbacca Defense.

Posted by: Xoxotl at February 28, 2006 11:03 AM (Wsi7x)

9 say, what were bush's poll numbers on july 17, 2005?

Posted by: mcmorris at February 28, 2006 11:20 AM (4io9Y)

10 say, what were bush's poll numbers on july 17, 2005?

I don't know but I do know that in Nov 2004 his poll numbers were 51%

Posted by: roc ingersol at February 28, 2006 12:14 PM (m2CN7)

11 Slow down, and quit slobbering all over your keyboards.

The headline says "CBS Oversampled" but that is hardly the case. The pollsters followed standard and statistically sound procedures--phone numbers were randomly selected and used to contact prospective MsOP (members of the public). They had no control over whether the person who answered considered themselves a Rebublican, a Democrat, or an Independent, and, truth be told, there is no reason to believe that their self identification as such was in any way valid!

Is it their fault that the paranoid Republican mind has a greater tendency to keep its phone numbers unlisted? Nevertheless, only 34% of these randomly selected people--their self declared party affiliation really has no meaning if they were randomly selected--think W is doing a good job.

Are you trying to tell me you are truthfully happy with his performance?

Posted by: Joe at February 28, 2006 12:20 PM (LZ8Xx)

12 Depends Joe. If you on the "enemies" list by now then yeah, I'm cool.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 12:30 PM (pzen5)

13 Are you trying to tell me you are truthfully happy with his performance?

I am estatic with his performance. We have two solid conservative Supreme court justices. We have not had another attack on our soil since 9/11. Our economy is expanding in spite of 9/11, two wars and the worst Hurricane season in terms of damage in our history. He put the kabob on Kyoto, got us out of antiquated treaties so we can proceed with missile defense, cut my taxes twice, took strong positions on gay marriage and partial birth abortions and put pride back into the military man. He has called the UN on its corruption and demanded reform which we are getting. He has said what he means and does what he says. Yeah , estatic is how I feel.

Posted by: roc ingersol at February 28, 2006 12:33 PM (m2CN7)

14 I see 95% of you idiots still have your heads buried up Bush's ass.

Overweighted sampling...bullshit...the only thing that's overweighted is Rush Limbaugh's fat ass.

No, Bush's approval rating couldn't possibly have anything to do with the moron screwing up everything he has a hand in...even if he doesn't know he's involved...until he hears it on the fucking radio.

Worst and most corrupt administration in our nation's history...and if he's not eventually impeached, it will be a miracle.

Posted by: Mike at February 28, 2006 12:42 PM (leJWb)

15 But... but... he's Chimpy! And an idiot! And Hitler! Halliburton! Quagmire! Bush lied!

Oh yeah, we're definitely regaining Congress in '06!

Posted by: M. Bat, Esq. at February 28, 2006 12:43 PM (nsx4i)

16 I wish I could buy troll for what it's worth, and sell it for what it think it's worth.

Posted by: Gutless Poster at February 28, 2006 12:45 PM (nsx4i)

17 Speaking of being "overweighted"...how about the Zogby poll of the military in Iraq.

90% of them still think we're there...because of Saddam's involvement in 9/11.

Saddam's involvement in 9/11...???

Now that is sad.

Posted by: Mike at February 28, 2006 12:49 PM (leJWb)

18 actually gutless, you'd be surprised I think to find that this troll really doesn't have a very high opinion of himself/herself. comes back often for the abuse.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 12:57 PM (pzen5)

19 Saddam's involvement in 9/11...???

Proven and proven again. What is sad is that facts don't affect you Mike. They must feel like lice.

Posted by: DDG at February 28, 2006 01:08 PM (4uzEh)

20 Not only is the GOP/Dem ratio in this poll (both weighted and unweighted) seriously out of whack, the independent percentages are simply absurd. One-third of the American electorate is independent? My ass is more independent.

In polling terms, 90% of so-called indeps are actually Dems with an honesty problem.

Posted by: Blacksheep at February 28, 2006 01:35 PM (kVUW4)

21 [poop][poop][poop]

Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:45 PM (D2pBz)

22 Ace:Mike::BrownNoise oop

Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:46 PM (D2pBz)

23 Dems with an honesty problem.

Isn't that redundant?

Posted by: zetetic at February 28, 2006 01:46 PM (nsx4i)

24 What is sad, well actually it's hilarious, is that these things get the Dem's hopes up. They start to believe they can win.

And then...it's heartbreak.

God, I just LOVE it when that happens.

Posted by: Rightwingsparkle at February 28, 2006 01:49 PM (t/SB8)

25 I had lice once! In my pants. You know how I got rid of them?

Get a razor blade, a lighter, and an ice pick. Shave half of your hair 'down there' with the razor blade. Set the other half of the hair on fire with the lighter. Then, stab all those little bastards with the ice pick as they run out!!

See, I'm not as dumb as you think I am!!

Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:51 PM (D2pBz)

26 My phone number isn't unlisted - it just often goes unanswered. I'm usually too busy either (1) working for a living, unlike all the Dem welfare queens who answer these surveys, or (2) banging someone Mike cares deeply about in a very uncomfortable place, if you know what I mean.

Posted by: Paranoid Republican at February 28, 2006 02:43 PM (lbmO+)

27 Where is Hoist?

Posted by: at February 28, 2006 02:48 PM (1EfUa)

28 Never ever trust a poll done by the Comunist Broadcasting System or any of the other liberal news networks i never beleive the polls taken by CNN/TIME

Posted by: spurwing plover at February 28, 2006 04:46 PM (1mdPR)

29 K-Lo at The Corner has been working over the poll. [H/T to The Anchoress]

Posted by: geoff at February 28, 2006 06:10 PM (vpYuK)

30 I'm usually too busy...banging someone Mike cares deeply about in a very uncomfortable place, if you know what I mean.
Like in the backseat of a Volkswagen?

Posted by: Sean M. at February 28, 2006 06:31 PM (dc5zY)

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