February 28, 2006
— Ace It hardly even needs to be pointed out anymore.
CBS weighted its sample, but still only to the point where they counted 289 Republicans to 381 Democrats.
This is always a polling issue, with good arguments on both sides. Some say one shouldn't weight polls for party ID, as party ID fluctuates-- maybe there simply are more Democrats now. Some say weight the results, as we know there is (approximately) parity between the parties.
CBS apparently chooses a mixed approach, weighting results, but not to the point of near-parity.
It's a hard question to resolve. However, I'm pretty sure that Democrats have not claimed an approximately 33% advantage over the Republicans.
Could the split now be 40 to 30? Perhaps. But such a sea change seems unlikely.
Much More... Reactions from the left and right of the blogosphere at the Blogometer.
Posted by: Mary Mapes at February 28, 2006 10:09 AM (uTD2Y)
Ace, is it possible that Massachusetts is working it's insidious dark mojo on you? Since you are now in a state where Teddy "Splash" Kennedy runs unopposed for reelection, there must be some kind of infectious insanity at work.
Posted by: Log Cabin at February 28, 2006 10:17 AM (Vsh3q)
Hey, how's that radio show you used to have, Ase?
Posted by: Bart at February 28, 2006 10:21 AM (tKvD7)
(We might as well use this thread to flame Texas)
Posted by: Bart at February 28, 2006 10:24 AM (tKvD7)
Posted by: JackStraw at February 28, 2006 10:33 AM (J8+2b)
Do you really want a happy, optimistic Ace? The world would cease to exist as we know it.
Anyway, is that Horserace Blog guy still around? I consider him a polling god.
Posted by: shawn at February 28, 2006 10:42 AM (H5cZK)
"recalculates the CBS job approval results for the most recent survey using the average party composition reported on their last three surveys ... the Bush approval percentage still rounds to 34%."
So let me get this straight. CBS adjusts the data in their poll by comparing it to data in their *other* polls. Nope, no chance for error or bias there. This would be like CBS authenticating new National Guard documents by comparing them to the Mapes National Guard documents.
Posted by: Steve L. at February 28, 2006 10:49 AM (hpZf2)
Posted by: Xoxotl at February 28, 2006 11:03 AM (Wsi7x)
Posted by: mcmorris at February 28, 2006 11:20 AM (4io9Y)
I don't know but I do know that in Nov 2004 his poll numbers were 51%
Posted by: roc ingersol at February 28, 2006 12:14 PM (m2CN7)
The headline says "CBS Oversampled" but that is hardly the case. The pollsters followed standard and statistically sound procedures--phone numbers were randomly selected and used to contact prospective MsOP (members of the public). They had no control over whether the person who answered considered themselves a Rebublican, a Democrat, or an Independent, and, truth be told, there is no reason to believe that their self identification as such was in any way valid!
Is it their fault that the paranoid Republican mind has a greater tendency to keep its phone numbers unlisted? Nevertheless, only 34% of these randomly selected people--their self declared party affiliation really has no meaning if they were randomly selected--think W is doing a good job.
Are you trying to tell me you are truthfully happy with his performance?
Posted by: Joe at February 28, 2006 12:20 PM (LZ8Xx)
Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 12:30 PM (pzen5)
I am estatic with his performance. We have two solid conservative Supreme court justices. We have not had another attack on our soil since 9/11. Our economy is expanding in spite of 9/11, two wars and the worst Hurricane season in terms of damage in our history. He put the kabob on Kyoto, got us out of antiquated treaties so we can proceed with missile defense, cut my taxes twice, took strong positions on gay marriage and partial birth abortions and put pride back into the military man. He has called the UN on its corruption and demanded reform which we are getting. He has said what he means and does what he says. Yeah , estatic is how I feel.
Posted by: roc ingersol at February 28, 2006 12:33 PM (m2CN7)
Overweighted sampling...bullshit...the only thing that's overweighted is Rush Limbaugh's fat ass.
No, Bush's approval rating couldn't possibly have anything to do with the moron screwing up everything he has a hand in...even if he doesn't know he's involved...until he hears it on the fucking radio.
Worst and most corrupt administration in our nation's history...and if he's not eventually impeached, it will be a miracle.
Posted by: Mike at February 28, 2006 12:42 PM (leJWb)
Oh yeah, we're definitely regaining Congress in '06!
Posted by: M. Bat, Esq. at February 28, 2006 12:43 PM (nsx4i)
Posted by: Gutless Poster at February 28, 2006 12:45 PM (nsx4i)
90% of them still think we're there...because of Saddam's involvement in 9/11.
Saddam's involvement in 9/11...???
Now that is sad.
Posted by: Mike at February 28, 2006 12:49 PM (leJWb)
Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 12:57 PM (pzen5)
Proven and proven again. What is sad is that facts don't affect you Mike. They must feel like lice.
Posted by: DDG at February 28, 2006 01:08 PM (4uzEh)
In polling terms, 90% of so-called indeps are actually Dems with an honesty problem.
Posted by: Blacksheep at February 28, 2006 01:35 PM (kVUW4)
Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:45 PM (D2pBz)
Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:46 PM (D2pBz)
Isn't that redundant?
Posted by: zetetic at February 28, 2006 01:46 PM (nsx4i)
And then...it's heartbreak.
God, I just LOVE it when that happens.
Posted by: Rightwingsparkle at February 28, 2006 01:49 PM (t/SB8)
Get a razor blade, a lighter, and an ice pick. Shave half of your hair 'down there' with the razor blade. Set the other half of the hair on fire with the lighter. Then, stab all those little bastards with the ice pick as they run out!!
See, I'm not as dumb as you think I am!!
Posted by: !Mike at February 28, 2006 01:51 PM (D2pBz)
Posted by: Paranoid Republican at February 28, 2006 02:43 PM (lbmO+)
Posted by: at February 28, 2006 02:48 PM (1EfUa)
Posted by: spurwing plover at February 28, 2006 04:46 PM (1mdPR)
Posted by: geoff at February 28, 2006 06:10 PM (vpYuK)
Like in the backseat of a Volkswagen?
Posted by: Sean M. at February 28, 2006 06:31 PM (dc5zY)
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