October 31, 2004

Bush Leads by Three in Dem-Skewing CBSNYT Poll
— Ace

This might be very good news indeed.

OTOH, Frank Luntz says that Bush needs to be up by at least three in order to win (due to new voters and late-undecideds voting against him, plus, you know, fraud), so if this poll is merely accurate, Bush is still only fifty-fifty to prevail.

The article is worth reading, because it does endeavor to spin this as really bad news for Bush.

It's not just news-- it's hilarious liberal desperation.

Update: But the New York Times goes, as usual, a little farther.

If any of you are fans of Mickey Kaus, you know that Times' reporter Adam Nagourney is their go-to guy for liberal cocooning. For example, when the last NYT poll in 2002 showed a massive movement towards Republicans, Nagourney buried that interesting finding until nearly the end of the article, and wrote some idiotic article about the polls' findings about voter anxiety and the like. He gave it the following headline:

Poll Finds Americans Like Cheese

Okay, not that, but something equally anodyne and boring. The New York Times "newspaper" deliberately refused to report its own discovery of actual news in order to not distress its archliberal constituency.

At any rate, the latest NYT poll finds that Bush is ahead by three-- cause for some alarm to liberals, given the poll's Democratic skew.

And what's the headline?

In Final Days, Divided Electorate Expresses Anxiety.

Once again, Nagourney deliberately avoids mention of the actual news-making part of the poll in favor of a non-newsworthy headline that won't discombobulate liberals too much.

The first two paragraphs:

The nation is girding for tomorrow's presidential election, worried about the integrity of the voting system, divided over the legitimacy of President Bush's election four years ago and anxious about the future no matter who wins the contest, according to the final New York Times/CBS News Poll of the 2004 campaign.

The poll shows that Mr. Bush and his opponent, Senator John Kerry, remain locked in a statistical tie as they head into the final 48 hours of the race. But the poll registered an increase in Mr. Bush's job approval rating, as well as an increase in the number of Americans who said the nation was heading in the right direction. Republicans described this as evidence that Mr. Bush was picking up speed in these closing days of the campaign, but Democrats dismissed the numbers, saying that both figures remain dangerously low for an incumbent.

Nagourney waits until the sixth paragraph to actually let you know Bush is up 49-46-- not really a "statistical tie" at all, because any statistician can tell you that any lead indicates at least the probability that one man is ahead, even if you can't be sure of the margin. This lead isn't big, but neither is it tiny.

Nagourney has waited far, far longer in his articles to inform his readers of what the poll actually says. He's slipping a bit. I expect better/worse from him.

Loose shit, Adam.

Posted by: Ace at 05:21 PM | Comments (12)
Post contains 516 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Try deciphering the new Gallop poll. Bush down in fl and OH up by 4 in PA? they are on crack. It is totally ass backwards. I think the polls are shit this year more so than usual. Just better get everyone to vote.

Heard 500 old folks die a day in florida or something bizarre like that earlier and they are having poll workers check obits for dead voters to watch out for.

Bush should win this handily. If he loses it will not be for not fighting the fight. When they are not playing by the same rules it makes it hard to win.

Posted by: jennifer at October 31, 2004 05:37 PM (TFMd3)

2 Oy. 2 days. I feel like the guy pounding on the rail and screaming during the last lap of a horserace.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow at October 31, 2004 05:43 PM (CcGTn)

3 I'm starting to understand the whole "icing the kicker" thing too.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer at October 31, 2004 05:46 PM (Zr5Iq)

4 In this poll, 71% said they are as well off or better than they were four years ago. Doesn't sound like the Great Depression to me.

Posted by: at October 31, 2004 06:03 PM (h4tU8)

5 I don't know if I can understand all this wacky, esoteric poll number gobblygook without Kim Richards to explain it to me, Ace.

Posted by: Alex at October 31, 2004 06:50 PM (PpBGs)

6 That is what I'd call "objective reporting" from the Times. After all, they didn't make things up.

Posted by: jb at October 31, 2004 07:23 PM (Xj059)

7 Tha weekend polls are straight garbage..

First off, It's been pointed out all over the blogoshpere, that Bush folks are attending Friday night football games, second, it's Holloween weekend! All the good mommies and daddies are out doing what they do with tha kiddies.. This leaves either A)people who hate football or B)people who hate kids -- at home, answering the phone.

I'd take these last poll numbers -- wad em'up,-- do a Kerry-Jump-throw with em' right into the waste basket. I'd also like for someone to please stick a bloody sock in Terry Macoluf's mouth every time he mentions the exit polls showing Kerry ahead with people who've already voted in Iowa and Florida. That stuff is crap to.

Its all crap.

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Posted by: Raymond at October 31, 2004 10:16 PM (oVK7g)

9 49-46.
Hmm.
That would mean there are 4% undecided if you assume at least 1% for Nader or Bednarak or whomever, combined.

The incumbent rule, which has only been true in 4 of the last 6 elections, says people break against the incumbent 2 to 1. It is of course horsesh**. But, that would still leave Bush winning the popular vote.

But all of the above is nonsense. Expect Bush to win 5 or 6 states that are 'surprises' to the media. They're not surprises. They're figured out of the numbers to fit preconceptions.

No Kool-Aid here. I just have my ear to the ground. Cutting like a fu**ing hammer, I'm like the Lone Ranger out here. I've already sent Tanto into town and I'm just waiting to ride into town to put the smack down.

Posted by: Birkel at October 31, 2004 11:00 PM (lBbMj)

10 Even one with such an obviously Republican cut to my jib has friends in certain liberal circles around town (Manhattan, if you have to ask.) These guys give me lots of good scoop on these reporters, Nagourney being the reporter they hate but need. Why? First of all, he's an ass-bandit. And second, he is a sniveling, Andy Sullivan-type ass-bandit.

His ambition, his enthusiasm for his career is second only to his fixation with the "stinky starfish".

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