April 29, 2010
— Ace That's Jay Cost's analysis. He thinks Crist is pretty much doomed.
It's a read the whole thing sort of thing, but I'll see if I can't grab a little here and there:
One, Independents don't win elections to the US Senate in three-way contests. Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are in office because one party or the other implicitly backed them. That isn't going to happen here. By my count, the last candidate to win election to the Senate as an Independent (other than Sanders and Lieberman) was Harry Byrd of Virginia. He won in 1976 because the Republicans did not run a candidate. This is not coincidental.
Voters vote their partisanship, and most voters are partisan. The 2008 exit poll found that the Florida electorate was 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 29% Independent. I'd note that the exit polls don't ask Independents how they lean. Gallup asks that question, and that's why they currently find that only 12% of Americans are "pure" Independents.
Voters are also strategic. Remember the New Jersey governor's race? Independent Christopher Daggett was polling at 10%, but only got 5.8% on Election Day. there's a reason for that. American elections are winner take all, which makes it very difficult for third parties to thrive. Once voters catch wind that a vote for a third party candidate is a waste, they'll bail on that candidate.
Second, it would be hard to come up with a strategy that goes against the zeitgeist as much as Crist's decision to run as an Independent. Congressional job approval is getting so low that only members of Congress and their staff approve of the job the legislature is doing. And why? Ask people you know in life and they'll complain about politicians who are only out for themselves, who aren't looking out for the interests of the people. And now here comes good old Charlie Crist, who just a few weeks ago swore off an Independent run. This is a dishonest and nakedly self-interested move, and voters are fed up with this kind of behavior. The only compelling motivation that Charlie Crist has to run as an Independent is so that Charlie Crist can stay in elective office. That is not good enough in a year like 2010.
His political career will be over in just a few short months. What a fool.
Jim Geraghty writes a column with a similar theme -- Crist is an idiot -- but mostly on the basis of policy and poor political choices.
And here's Crist promising to do what he previously perceived to be in his own best interests a month ago. This should play well. Especially given that Crist has no good answer as to why he's now repudiating his beloved "Party of Abraham Lincoln." And, come on, there's not a voter in the state who believes this to be a decision of principle.
Check out Crist's website, too:
Instead of being open and honest with voters and owning up to the thousands of dollars that remain unaccounted for from his political committees and releasing his tax returns, the Rubio campaign would prefer to spread baseless rumors.
To put these rumors to rest once and for all, as we have said countless times before, Governor Crist is running for the United States Senate as a Republican. He will not run as an Independent or as a No Party Affiliation.
The Governor is proud of his conservative credentials and stands firmly behind the principles of limited government and more personal freedom, the bedrock values of the Republican Party. He is proud to be a member of the Party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan.
This should completely and utterly put to rest any of the unfounded rumors coming from the Rubio campaign that Governor Crist would run as anything other than the Republican that he is.
In the large and expanding universe of political lies, lying about one's intentions about seeking office or running as this or that is one of the lesser sorts of lies. To an extent, everyone will "understand" (as in, partly forgive) Crist's lies and broken promises about this, as they understand that, being a politician, he says what he says and does what he does to get elected.
But that's still a lie, and Crist really can't make up for it by articulating a compelling rationale for his new-found devotion to "The Party of Bernie Sanders." The state has a lot of Obama supporters, and I suppose he could make a play for those, but why wouldn't they support the Obama-endorsed candidate, Kendrick Meeks?
He can try for voters fed up with both parties, but the trouble with those people is they typically don't vote. Even if he were to inspire them to vote, those votes wouldn't be coming out of Rubio's hide. They'd basically be fresh voters no one was expecting to show up, and will get him into double-digits, and that's about it.
And he's the wrong sort of person to tap into such anger, anyway. He's not a passionate, crusading Howard Beale type. He's a cautious -- timid, really -- calculating establishment poll-watcher.
If Crist attempts making himself over into some "Mad as Hell" revolutionary, it promises to be an election filled with comedy, and pathos.
Bold New Leadership.*
* Disclaimer: Leadership is neither bold, nor new, and also is not leadership. But he does look a little like the guy who played J. Peterman on Seinfeld.
The Guy Who Played J. Peterman on Seinfeld
He knows George's ATM code is "Bosco" and is fluent in Gibberish.
Crist Offering Donors Prorated Refunds: Prorated, I guess, so he can keep half or more of the money, and claim he gets to keep his the prorated share of it to reflect the time he spent as a Republican.
Where Will Crist's Money Come From? It's not like he's a charismatic new face with a compelling story. Democratic money will tend to go to the Democrat, with a little tossed Crist's way in order to help him mount a spoiler campaign against Rubio.
GOP money will 95% go to Rubio. The GOP tends to be establishment, and Crist is breaking the polite rules of politics (run in the primary, if you lose, support the winner). Even the smallish number of folks who are inclined to vote for a squish aren't going to like the selfish, spoiler aspect of his bid.
As the usually excellent Drew noted, even David Frum is bothered by the spoilsport nature of Crist's self-serving jump.
Online donations from out of state liberals and "moderate" Republicans? I guess I can see Kos pimping Crist a lot, trying to get him nutroots money. But that's not going to be a welter of money, like Scott Brown saw.
— LauraW There's a few million more Democrat voters, eh?
Puerto Rico's Commonwealth status is kind of an odd arrangement, but Puerto Ricans have refused several offers of statehood over the years. They overwhelmingly prefer commonwealth status (about 70% see it favorably) and consider it the "best of both worlds."
I didn't hear about this vote today until 5 pm last night.
One rather gets the impression that this Congress just wants to keep throwing crazy stuff at us so quickly, on holidays and in the middle of the night and as barely publicized surprises, that its almost impossible for a benumbed citizenry to mount a defense against each item. more...
Those racists at the University of Texas have recalled all students, faculty and staff from northern Mexico because they fear brown people. Or out of control violence. One or the other.
UT officials estimate around 40 people will be affected by the recall, which covers seven Mexican states Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Baja California and Durango. UT Austin officials took a similar action earlier this month, directing all study-abroad students in Monterrey to return home.
In March, the Texas Department of Public Safety took the unprecedented action of warning college spring-breakers not to cross into Mexican border cities, saying their safety could not be guaranteed.
The UT System and its institutions value their close association with Mexico. That said, the safety of UT students, faculty and staff is of the utmost importance and we feel these actions ... are prudent given the escalation in violence in these regions, said Francisco Cigarroa, chancellor of the UT System.
On Wednesday, three dozen gunmen stormed the Holiday Inn Centro and the Hotel Mision in Monterrey, kidnapping three businessmen, a female guest, two receptionists and, possibly, a security guard. Last month, two students from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education were killed by crossfire during a shootout between soldiers and drug traffickers.
The violence is attributed to turf wars between Mexico's powerful drug cartels.
Meanwhile, illegal immigrants to the United States face the indignity of having to follow the law.
Don't forget...plenty of groups want you to boycott Arizona. I say, Flagstaff is an interesting place to drop in on.
Thanks to mpur in Texas for the UT story and Slublog for the logo.
Also thanks to all have sent tips to dangersinmexico at gmail (dot)com. I'll be using more soon.
The purpose of this series... more...
— Gabriel Malor Ack! I could have sworn that today was supposed to be Wednesday.
April 28, 2010
— Dave in Texas Sounds like they might. Including the border states of Texas, Utah, Ohio, Georgia and Maryland.
Two Republican state reps in Texas will propose it again in January.
Cornyn continues to embarrass on this. Thanks John. Keep making me wonder why I voted for you.
Some of my blog and online friends have expressed principled concerns about the Arizona law, and I respect those. I am not as concerned, but neither am I sanguine. I worry that "voices of reason" in the Congress will take this as their cue to step in with another Comprehensive Piece of Shit attempt (even though right now they claim it's "dead in the water").
Recent legistative activity at the federal level kinda makes me think nothing is really dead in the water.
— DrewM (Note: The above in quotes was from Frum's original headline. He seems to have changed it without noting it in his post. That's internet FAIL)
Um, Dave? Weve been doing that for months now. Its been moderates like you who wanted to foist Charlie Crist on us.
Well, at least our self-proclaimed leader has caught up to his multitudes. Better late than never and all of that.
The Crist-Rubio contest is a tough one for modern-minded Republicans. As Eli Lehrer has noted here, Crist is no paragon of good government. On the other hand, what has got Crist in trouble is not his beach-house bailout, but his willingness to cut a deal with the feds to rescue his state finances kind of a governors job. Its unnerving too that it is so hard to predict how Crist would behave as a U.S. senator. With Rubio, you have a more certain idea of what youll get.
But heres where I come down: The center right has got to hold together. We cannot afford more NY-23s. In all but the most extreme
circumstances, the rule has to be that those who participate in a party contest abide by the results of that process. Its one thing if the race is Lieberman v. Lamont, and whats at issue is success or failure in war. I used that comparison in a tweet today, but it does not stand up to scrutiny: the differences between Crist and Rubio are much more differences in tone, temperament, and personality. Had Crist prevailed in the Florida Republican primary, he would have had every valid reason to expect Rubio to support the outcome. The reverse should have held true.
Yes, yes all very fair minded and all. The question still is, why exactly should the right be taking advice from someone who thought Crist was a great choice, really the only choice? The guy has turned out to be a sore loser snake who may well be trying to cut a deal with the Obama White House to win this race. Some of us saw that early on and wanted nothing to do with the guy.
Exactly at what point do our leaders have to answer for the fact that they are often wrong?
As Ive said before, Im willing to support a moderate (though not one who might well turn out to be a party jumper) if thats the best chance for victory. However my question for Frum from back in November (see how early I was rallying around Rubio) still stands.*
Why in the world shouldn't we want to nominate Marco Rubio in Florida and do all we can to make it happen? It's not as if that state has never elected a conservative. Jeb Bush did just fine there. Is there any reason to think Rubio is so much more conservative than the former Governor that Florida voters will be repulsed by him? Of course not.
I think you can be a conservative and still be willing to accept the reality that sometimes you have to compromise. I do not see why you should be considered a conservative when clearly your preference is for liberals, even in a state where a conservative can win.
Fum always wants to know why conservatives won't support moderates, well I'd like to know what conservative Frum would support over a moderate/liberal? If not Rubio over Crist in Florida, then what candidate and where will Frum support a real conservative over a moderate/liberal?
Frum is coming up from the rear, while pretending to lead from the front.
*I edited that sentence a bit to clarify what I was getting at.
In 2000, I was jumped by a group of eight Black women outside of a club, so I also understand what you are saying about being fearful and in some cases being discriminated against. As a white journalist who has worked for Black newspapers and who has experienced reverse discrimination firsthand, I definitely agree that White people often find themselves in an awkward position. But what I have come to understand and to believe is that those of us who are chosen for this work are often forced to experience situations that might be reflective of the ones that Blacks have had in America so that we can begin to understand the pain that they have endured. Though it took a couple of years to come to terms with it, I have come to grips with the fact that what I experienced was the wrath of not only eight individuals who might have had unjust dealings with Whites in their own lives, but who also bear the weight of over 400 years worth of similar experiences on their shoulders and in their psyches as well.
For a woman who toils endlessly to improve the lives of black folks, damn, they sure do violate her an awful lot.
More: She doesn't specify the race of her violators here:
I had long wanted to visit Haiti. Let me tell you why. Growing up in Ohio, I encountered physical, sexual and emotional abuse in my home. I ran away often and worked as a teenage prostitute in order to survive the streets.
Shit just seems to happen to her.
It seems that what you are intended to get from all this is that her capacity for forgiveness and love is quite endless; but to demonstrate that, she needs a lot of violent run-ins (especially with blacks) to forgive.
Each time she is violated, and yet finds within herself the capacity to forgive, well... one can see the incentives here. The greater and more numerous the crimes committed against her, the greater a moral beacon she is for forgiving.
Maybe at some point she can move to a place safer than Gotham City.
Thanks to Morgen. Morgen writes that I've been punked, but I don't think so: See, I never really cared if her story was true or not. Honestly, I had my doubts.
That wasn't the important thing. The important thing was whether someone was really writing this drivel seriously, whether she was lying about the facts of the matter or not. I just wanted to make sure that some right-winger hadn't written this and posted it on Alter-Net as a prank.
— Maetenloch Good evening and happy Hump Day all.
With narration explaining what's happening second by second. This footage was originally filmed on 16mm at 500 fps so the 8 minutes of video represents just 30 seconds of actual time.
It's amazing to realize how complex even a simple thing like a lauch pad is and how every single detail from the special charring paint to the water jets had to be designed and tested by a team of engineers. And it worked.
— Ace Obama just saved you from these potential terrorists.
And You're Welcome.
Back off! We have cookies and we're not afraid to use 'em!
No Mattlock, No Peace! No Mattlock, No Peace!
I don't know if this was anything more than excessive police prudence.
It strikes me as odd, however, that a day after the left is embarrassed to have the riot police called on those "mostly peaceful" bottle-throwing barricade-overrunning immigration protesters, the media suddenly gets the optics of "See, riot police were called on the Tea Partiers, too."
Of course, the optics created are not the optics intended.
The message seems to be that there are privileged points of view and unprivileged points of view. And the privileged speakers get to have riots, and the unprivileged get the threat of having their heads busted in for daring to wave a flag.
— Ace Am I being punked?
It's on Alter-Net, a lefty site, but maybe they're being punked.
I strongly suspect, alas, I am not being punked. I think this is legit -- just written by a lunatic.
I am baffled. Not that she didn't suddenly go full-racist or something. Not that she doesn't suddenly become less leftist in outlook.
I just don't understand how her response after rape is to immediately intellectualize it, abstract it, politicize it, and decide that the World's Population of White Men Who Didn't Rape Her are in fact guilty of her rape, while the black guy who did rape her isn't.
You see, he was driven to rape due to the exploitation by the white man; the exploited often become the exploiters, due to their exploitation by the primary exploiters, and this is exploited by white men for their various hegemonic exploits.
Or something. I know the word "exploit" appears several times in her explanation.
We are frequently instructed by the Left not to indulge in racial scapegoating. I have to say there seems to be a rather large exception to that otherwise-ironclad rule, to the extent, apparently, that white guys get blamed even when a feminist lunatic is raped by a black guy.
The real rule, of course, is to engage in nonstop racial scapegoating of Whitey, and to in fact transfer the sin of any other racial group to Whitey.
If you've merely stopped racial scapegoating of one race and began the racial scapegoating of another, have you actually achieved enlightenment or progressive nirvana? Seems to me you're just substituting one thuggishly stupid impulse for another one.
Thanks to "Christian" -- Oh, what a giveaway!
Oh, by the way, Sugar -- I have an alibi.
I guess I'd take your rape more seriously if you did.
— Ace Via enoxo.
At just about the same time Dick Morris sent out a email urging the GOP to fight on this issue.
— DrewM Labour was already in big trouble in the upcoming British elections but Gordon Brown just sunk his party.
Apparently he was doing a bit of campaigning while wearing a mic for a TV reporter. He seemed to have forgotten that he was miced up and while talking to an aide he was caught calling a lifelong Labour voter "a bigot".
Watch her reaction as she is told this and hears the Prime Minister say it.
Here's a transcript of the conversation Brown had with the woman. She mostly talks about the economy and touches briefly on immigration, which is a big issue in the UK.
Duffy: Look, the three main things that I had drummed in when I was a child was education, health service and looking after people who are vulnerable. There are too many people now who arent vulnerable but they can claim and people who are vulnerable cant get claim.
Brown: But they shouldnt be doing that, there is no life for people on the dole anymore, if youre unemployed youve got to go back to work. At six months
Duffy: You cant say anything about the immigrants because youre saying youre but all these eastern Europeans coming in, where are they flocking from?
Brown: A million people come in from Europe, but a million British people have gone into Europe, you do know theres a lot of British people staying in Europe as well. So education, health and helping people, thats what Im about.
Duffy: I hope you keep to it.
Between the utter contempt shown by Brown for this woman and her concerns and the image of a 65 year old woman gob smacked by her PM's words are simply devastating to him and his party.
Watch the video at the link. Brown's reaction (about 1:43 in) when they play the tape for him of his remarks is priceless. He's a dead man walking and he knows it.
Now you know why Democrats are going to want to avoid town hall meetings again this summer.
— Ace Toomey.
Both are urging you to flip the switch.
— Ace Two people have sent this, so I guess I have to post it, just to stop people from sending it.
Thanks to Rene.
— DrewM Compare and contrast....
No bounce for Obama post-Health Care (so says James Carville's poll).
Arizona Governor shoots up 16% in approval.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state shows that 56% now approve of the way Brewer is performing her role as governor. Two weeks ago, just 40% offered their approval.
The new figure includes 22% who Strongly Approve of the governors performance. Thats up from five percent (5%) before Brewer signed the law that authorizes local police to stop and verify the immigration status of anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant.
The bounce in the polls is also evident in new numbers on the November election. If Brewer is the Republican nominee, she would get 48% of the vote while her likely Democratic opponent, State Attorney General Terry Goddard, would attract 40%. Two weeks ago, it was Brewer 44% and Goddard 40%. Goddard is an outspoken opponent of the new law.
It can't be policy of course so it's obliviously racism!
Added: It really seems the left has over played its hand on 'racism' 'bigots', 'fascists' etc. They are like the boy who cried wolf and people are seeing that there simply isn't much behind the name calling.
Now it infuriates me when people like Olbermann, and random Op-ed writer at the Washington Post or NY Times goes off like they do but it's more personal than business. It's far more tiresome than it is effective.
It really seems that since the decline of Obama started about a year ago the left is simply playing to the base in hopes of holding the line as best they can. They aren't really trying to convince anyone, just rabble rouse.
Related enough: Geniuses want to boycott "Arizona Ice Tea". Problem is, it's a NY based company. Just another reason it's hard to take liberals seriously.
— Jack M. Drew M. "outed" my twitter account earlier. Yes, I started one last night in the hopes that I, too, could converse with the Edward R. Murrow of our generation.
Sadly, I got to the fight too late to engage with the host of a television show that may not even be on the air 90 days from now, given the rate it's hemorrhaging viewers. My chance may have come and gone.
I mean....coming in second to that dude, Rachel Maddow? Really? I don't think that bodes well for coming sweeps periods.
Don't look now Keefums, but Nancy Grace is in your rearview mirror and gaining fast.
In any event, my account is @jackmcoldcuts. And, yes, I am following @SuzanneSena already, so I don't need any more e-mails telling me that she has an account.
Like I didn't already know.
So sign up if you want. You will want to be there when I turn it into the longest running epic poem in the world. Can beauty/great art be tweeted 140 characters at a time?
The world may soon find out.
Fox News has learned that Charlie Crist has decided and plans to announce that he is running as an Independent for the U.S. Senate. The official announcement is scheduled at 5pm in St. Petersburg, Florida tomorrow.Remember...this is the type of Republican David Frum says we should support.
Crist has said that under no circumstance would he drop out of the race, saying he will do what is best for the voters of Florida. Crist says Republicans in Washington want him to stay in the Republican party but voters in Florida have told him they want him to run as an Independent.
Oh, and great work John Cornyn. You're a real savvy talent scout.
Update II - "The word is out."
Crist is telling key financial backers that he's running for senate with no party affiliation. The announcement is scheduled for 5 p.m. in Straub Park in downtown St Petersburg.I hope some of those financial backers ask for their money back.
— DrewM It started out innocently enough. I made what I thought was a fairly obvious statement on Twitter .
Just a reminder...@keitholbermann is a shameless, dishonest hack. It simply can't be said enough.
Seriously, what could be less controversial than that? Well, it turns out that aside from being a shameless, dishonest hack, Mr. Olbermann is also a thin skinned girly man who seems to sit at home furiously reading all the Twitter messages about him. How do I know this? Well a few minutes after posting my observation I received this message via Twitter:
Yep if u dont keep saying it your sheep might see you're lying
Yes, the most important man in
journalism MSNBCs lily white line up his bathtub, was so offended that he simply had to respond. And he did so with his usual wit and intelligence. Wait, thats not right. How exactly will my sheep see Im lying if I dont talk about him? I dont know either.
I dont know if someguy is still around but if so, you really need to have a talk with Keith about this whole punching down thing. For comparison, Keith has 50k+ followers, when this little dust up started my herd was 486 strong (its now close to 500, thanks Keith!).
But that wasnt the end of it I couldnt let this chance to interact with the Edward R. Murrow of our time go by without at least one more shot.
It's fun that @KeithOlbermann responded to me. I just wish it had been Larry O'Donnell, then 3x as many people would have seen it
This of course set the finger that types the Special Comments back to work
hilarious! Tho it makes u look like u flunked 4th gr
It took me a bit to figure out what his point was here. Then I realized he thought I was saying ODonnell pulled 3x his ratings while subbing for him. I wasnt. I knew ODonnell did better but I was just taking a swipe at Olby and 3x was a handy number. But Mr. Pedantic got all huffy and decided to defend his low ratings by attacking me.
In the interest of accuracy here are the ratings from the month ODonnell hosted vs. Olbys. Now Im sure that after his flunked 4th gr swipe at me, when I didnt actually make a math error, he can point me to the tape of him mocking Obama for clamming health insurance premiums would fall by 3,000%. See there is no tape of that because he would never expose Captain Wonderful to that kind of derision, nor would his dwindling number of viewers want to be exposed to such unkind things. Which kind of brings me back to the whole shameless, dishonest hack thing.
— Gabriel Malor Rrmph.
April 27, 2010
Thanks to Intaglio.
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