October 29, 2010
— Ace Beat 88 of them and maybe another 30 will up and quit.
Well, the impossible is at least within view. In a year when Republicans had to defend 18 of the 33 seats that were up and at the same time gain 11 Democrat-held seats 10 after Scott Brown the thing is actually conceivable, if hardly predictable. Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana seem won, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look good, so do Illinois and Nevada, meanwhile GOP candidates are tied or slightly ahead in Colorado and Washington and close in West Virginia a wave could help them enough.
That is ten, but some of them are a little shaky. I know smart people who think California is this years lagging indicator and that Carly Fiorina will pull it off, because Boxer still cant break 50. And, just for fun, has anyone noticed that a poll or two in Connecticut and Delaware show a slackening in the Dems lead there?
[disclaimers omitted -- he wants you to know he's just spitballing here, not predicting]
Crazy stuff happens in wave elections. And right now the happy times wave seems close. But if the Superwave shows up and the Gallup low turnout number is probably indicative (at 14 this week, which is unheard of) anything could happen. Here is the fun thought for the weekend. (Though, remember now, this is all but pure recreation.) Will certain Senate islands get washed over? Oregon and Wyden? One of the New York seats? Maryland and Mikulski? Though, as I say, if Leahy loses in Vermont you can get me at one of the local homes. Old guys can handle just so much cognitive dissonance.
Thanks to Monty.
— Ace This is Ruth McClung's ad, but anyone can use the basics of it. more...
— Ace They only talk to each other. Their stupid little memes spread like wildfire among them. Then they just keep parroting each other's stupidities.
And they think they're sensible and smart for doing so.
So here John Kerry, offering up the latest "Americans are crazy, dumb, uninformed, and overwrought" analysis:
Its absurd. Weve lost our minds, Kerry said. Were in a period of know-nothingism in the country, where truth and science and facts dont weigh in. Its all short-order, lowest common denominator, cheap-seat politics.
— Ace For this one: It's okay to get a little cocky.
Marco Rubio has built a "commanding and insurmountable'' lead in Florida's three-way Senate race, a new poll has found -- even without the latest political machinations in the race.
The poll -- which comes on the heels of revelations that former President Bill Clinton last week reportedly urged Democrat Kendrick Meek to get out of the race -- shows the Republican Rubio leading the field with 45 percent, followed by Gov. Charlie Crist at 28 percent and Meek at 21 percent. Only 6 percent of voters in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. poll said they were undecided.
"There is simply no mathematical formula by which Crist or Meek can approach Rubio's 45 percent support level," said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker.
More at the link, including Clinton saying Crist promised to caucus with the Democrats, which Crist of course denies. He's going to "caucus with the people of Florida," whatever the hell that means.
— Ace Ten's still too much for the wave to overcome... But maybe five or six.
I have no idea if this horrific caddish story -- very well parodied, I hate to admit, by the Village Voice (mild content warning for hookup-story exaggeration and parody) -- will wind up helping her. It ought to really, with a few women, who may have been skeptical of her but now realize how unfairly and viciously she's being treated. But that is, what, 1% tops of the total vote.
Oh, and in the coming months, I believe we'll be checking in on one Dustin Dominiak, giving him a bit of the Internet Fame he's apparently so desperate for.
BTW, I know boycotts are hard, and all, but really, conservative women -- you have to stop reading Gawker. I know women like their gossip, and I know conservative women read it. But come on. At some point a site goes too far into the gutter to be rewarded.
UPDATE: 12:24 edt.
A suspicious package containing a toner cartridge with wires and powder was found during routine screening of cargo in the United Kingdom, prompting authorities to scour three planes and a truck in the United States on Friday. Searches were conducted in Philadelphia, Newark, N.J., and New York City.
During a basic security screening process in the United Kingdom, officials found a suspicious item on a cargo plane, according to a U.S. government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation.
U.K. officials discovered that a toner cartridge on the plane had been manipulated and found wires attached to it and white powder. Tests on the device came back negative for explosives, according to a law enforcement official who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the investigation.
Concerns about the possibility of similar and potentially dangerous devices shipped elsewhere prompted officials to check other cargo headed to the U.S.
UPDATE: 11:50 edt-
FNC says they have confirmed that the feds are looking at 'several suspicious' packages from planes in Philly and a small/regional airport in England.
At least on aircrew reported a radiological warning. Crews were checked and cleared of any contamination.
The planes all seem at this point (and it's a fast moving story) to connect back to Yemen.
Federal sources tell ABC News more than a dozen potential bombs shipped to US,distributed on UPS trucks to NY, NJ.Bomb technicians on scene.
ABC News reports: Potential IEDs shipped from Yemen through Birmingham, England. At least 15 devices believed to have been constructed.
UPS planes at Philly and Newark being quarantined because of suspicious items on board.
ABC NEWS has learned Authorities in NY Philadelphia NJ and UK involved in trying to stop an ongoing bomb plot targeting the US
FNC says a UPS truck in Queens has been detained.
Planes in London being investigated as well. FNC says there was a bomb on board a UPS plane in London. (11:40am update: UPS denies any problem with any planes in London).
— DrewM They've been fighting it but there's just too much evidence to the contrary. It's not out of partisan spite but I think most of them just didn't think what they were seeing for so long was or could be true. It's just beyond their experience.
Jay Cost continues admits he's losing control and the Hulk is about to smash.
Were just a few days away from what could be the biggest Republican midterm victory in better than sixty years. The indications are all around us.
The Cook Report says the Democrats are done and it's only getting worse.
The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.
...At this point, only 190 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 198 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 47 seats are in the Toss Up column.
Yesterday, Cook moved the Frank-Bielat race from "Likely Democrat" to "Leans Democrat".
Rothenberg...it's going from bad to worse to death for Democrats in the House.
The Rothenberg Political Report Friday forecast a net gain of 55 to 65 seats for the Republicans, with gains at or above 70 seats possible. That's up from Rothenberg's previous forecast of a GOP gain of 45 to 55 seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the chamber from the Democrats, who have held the House and the Senate for the last four years.
"At this point, there are no signs of a Democratic 'surge,' and some Democrats think that the political environment is deteriorating for the party. Across the country, Republicans are ending their campaigns with calls to 'check' President Obama. Given the mood of the electorate, this is likely to be an effective closing argument," says the Rothenberg Report.
Larry Sabato's prediction is probably the most optimistic for Democrats and he's predicting a blowout for Republicans.
Even at this late date, we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains, based on more complete information now available to all. Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling. In fact, if youll go back to our pre-Labor Day analysis, thats exactly what we suggested +47 would end up being.
4 days to go and the Democrats are spending it explaining why their party heads are trying to get a black man off the ballot in Florida. Even if he stays, turnout is likely to be depressed helping Republicans statewide there.
4 days to go and the Demcorats are talking about a comedian who is not even the most watched person on his network. But there will be a poetry reading by Sam Waterson and Sheryl Crow will perform, so there's that.
4 days to go, get yourself to an event, get your friends to vote and then rub a liberals face in it.
— CAC Gerg may not like it. But I suspect much of the rest of you will:
— DrewM Yesterday the Alaska Supreme Court rewrote the state's election rules to help Princess MerCOKEski. In response conservatives called on people to sign-up to be a write-in candidate in order to mess with the MerCOKEski plan.
Over a hundred Alaskans heeded the call.
In a movement one pro-Sarah Palin website is calling Operation Alaska Chaos, at least 100 people filed paperwork Thursday to register as write-in candidates in the U.S. Senate election, according to the Division of Elections.
A stream of would-be senators filtered through the elections office in Midtown Anchorage late in the day, many saying the effort is meant to protest an order by the Alaska Supreme Court on Wednesday allowing a list of write-in candidates to be shown to voters who ask for assistance.
The court action is expected to aid Sen.(MerCOKEski's) write-in bid and amounts to electioneering by the state, say supporters of Republican nominee Joe Miller. The idea of a mass registration is to create a long list of potential write-in choices and make it harder for voters to find (MerCOKEski's) name.
...A list of candidates on the Division of Elections website included more than 40 write-in names late Thursday, but employees at the Anchorage office said other names were still being processed.
Among the write-in candidates listed on the division website Thursday was a Tom M., but no Lisas.
Richard Koller of Anchorage imagined (MerCOKEski's) name awash in a sea of other names at Alaska polling places as a result of the mass registration.
Well played Alaska conservatives. Well played.
BTW- I haven't seen one of the new 'voter aide' sheets the Alaska Supreme Court is suddenly allowing voters to see (apparently this has never happened before when there were write -in candidates) so I may be spelling Sen. MerCOKEski's name incorrectly. If so, I apologize for the error.
— Monty UPDATE: Social Security cash flow deficit worse than expected. A hard rain's gonna fall. (Somewhat shorter Financial Briefing than usual today. Sometimes it's better to have DOOM in smaller doses.) The Tea Party: Threat or Menace? It's more fun to read this spittle-flecked tirade by Robert Reich if you imagine it as a black-and-white 1950's-era jeremiad against the Communist menace among us. (Note that Reich is a professor at the most far-left nuthatch the country has to offer, UC Berkeley.) His disaffection for the Tea Party folks seems to rest on two pillars: a) they're stupid and have stupid brains which causes them to do stupid things; and b) they do not support the world-saving policies of the Lightbringer because of their stupid brains. I think the WSJ just posts this stuff, as Tyler Durden does at ZH, to get a rise out of people. Well: mission accomplished! more...
— Gabriel Malor Hubris.
That's from the Greek, like those columns the Obama campaign insisted weren't compensation for his underwhelming manhood.
The Remember series is, of course, from our very own Slublog!™
October 28, 2010
— Dave in Texas Oh I never heard of such a thing.
"During the course of early voting, Complaintant has actually witnessed, and is aware about numerous reports about, labor union leaders' activities in and around Clark County. The reports indicate that several unions are engaging in activities that appear to be intended to intimidate and coerce their into casting their votes in the Election under the close scrutiny and supervision of Union personnel."
I. Am. Shocked at this behavior. No wonder card check is so important.
Integrity. And conscious.
Do you know where SEIU is coming from with integrity?
Russ Feingold, the state's Democratic Governor and comment trolls hit hardest.
Republicans are headed for comfortable wins in Wisconsin's races for both Senator and Governor. Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold 53-44 in the US Senate race and Scott Walker leads by an identical margin against Tom Barrett.
There are two major factors leading to the GOP's likely victory on Tuesday:
1) Wisconsin has one of the largest enthusiasm gaps of any state in the country. Although it appears Democrats will have turnout issues pretty much everywhere the problem is unusually severe in Wisconsin. Those saying they're likely to vote this fall report having voted for Barack Obama by only 3 points in 2008. He actually won the state by 14 points. This year's electorate in the state appears as though it will be very Republican friendly compared to the last few election cycles.
2) Barack Obama's popularity in Wisconsin has declined at a rate much faster than the rest of the country and the state's Democratic Governor is one of the most unpopular people holding his position anywhere in the country as well.
There was some concern that the Senate race might be tightening. Now? Not quite as much.
There's this guy you may have heard of named Winston Wolfe. He has a rule about not celebrating prematurely. Listen to him. He's wise. But you know, as we approach the end game, it's okay to enjoy the sites a little, smell the roses and taste the tears of liberals.
Alright, enough of that. Back to work.
Hey Cheeseheads....Dan Kapanke in WI-3 looks like he could use some help. RCP says the race is "leans Democrat". With the Democratic brand so battered in that state, these are the kind of seats we need to pick up. Maybe not for a majority but we'll definitely need it for 'back breaking and soul crushing'.
The NRCC is still in there swinging away so it's not a lost cause.
— Maetenloch Happy Thursday all.
This hasn't been covered much in the blogosphere mostly because it's kinda sordid and seems so much like a transparent last minute smear. But it's on Drudge and you can go search Gawker to find the original article if you want. Basically a young dude (not Will Folks!) from Philadelphia claims that three years ago he hooked up with a drunken O'Donnell on Halloween and had a one night stand with her.
His proof: he has pictures of her in a ladybug costume at a party.
He also says that she started dating his roommate and that she 'didn't have sex' with his roommate either. Which makes you wonder what kind of one night stand this really was. And where it would fall on the Clintonian Axis.
As Ace has pointed out before the new rule seems to be that when it comes to Republican women well, there are no rules and anything goes. So in turnabout I was going to do a whole Penthouse Letters post about my encounter with a very tipsy and randy Barbra Boxer a few St. Paddy's days ago. But after a paragraph or two I realized that my sacred honor wasn't as strong as I had imagined and that thanks to Google this is just the kind of personal admission that will haunt you for a lifetime. So my new slogan is - what happens in the alley, stays in the alley. Consider yourselves all spared.
— CAC I know everyone is giddy for the House to be called early, but unless you are AWESOME like me and live on the Left Coast, you will be waiting a while. Still, save this as a good reference for poll closing times: more...
— DrewM As I asked on Twitter, pushing the black guy out in favor of the white(ish) one is racist, right?
Clinton thought he had it done last week but Meek wouldn't pull the trigger.
The argument was: You can be a hero here. You can stop him, you can change this race in one swoop, said another Democrat familiar with the conversations, who said Clinton had bluntly told Meek that he couldnt win the race.
Clinton campaigned with Meek in Florida on October 19 and 20, and thought he had won Meek over in an evening conversation the night they spent together in Jacksonville. But as the week wore on, Meek lost his enthusiasm for the arrangement, spurred in part, a third Democratic source said, by his wifes belief that he could still win the race. Clinton spoke with Meek again at weeks end, three Democrats said, and again Meek said he would drop out.
It was a completely done deal, one source said.
The Crist, Meek and Clinton camps even set a date for an endorsement rally: the following Tuesday, October 26. Meek was to give Crist his blessing and explain to his disappointed supporters many of whom deeply distrust the governor, who was elected as a Republican that their votes could save the Senate for the Democrats and save America from the rise of Rubio, who is viewed both as a hard-line conservative and a potential national figure.
The story says Meek backed out because his wife thought he could still win. It's very sweet that Mrs. Meek is so dedicated to her husband but...no, he can't.
I'm not sure how much it would or rather, would have helped Crist. Given voting patterns you have to assume that a fair bit of Meek's support comes from the black community. Is there any reason to believe that's transferable? Also, I recall seeing a poll that showed that if Crist ran with the blessing of the Democrats, he'd lose a good bit of his support that came from Republicans. It might have been a wash anyway.
You know who this benefits? Rick Scott, the Republican running for Governor who is pretty much tied with Democrat Alex Sink. Also helped are Republican House candidates in close races in Florida. Announcing that your party has given up on the top of its ticket 5 days out is not exactly going to help close the enthusiasm gap the Democrats are already suffering from.
Be the Wave!
UPDATE: Meek says never happened, Crist says yes it did. Rubio? I can only imagine he's looking for a place to live in D.C.
In a statement released Thursday by Meeks campaign manager Abe Dyk, Meek categorically denies that he was asked to or considered dropping out of the race.
"The article is not true. Kendrick Meek was never dropping out of this race, is never dropping out of this race, and will never drop out of this race. Kendrick Meek will always stand up for the middle class and will not leave Floridians a choice between two lifelong conservative Republicans who only stand with the special interests. Kendrick is the Democratic nominee so if anyone should drop out, it's Charlie Crist."
However, Crist said differently.
"While this story is accurate, the governor's focus is on uniting common-sense Democrats, independents, and Republicans behind his campaign because he is the one candidate who can defeat Tea Party extremist Marco Rubio and deliver bipartisan results for Florida in Washington," according to a statement from Crists campaign.
Meek has to deny it since Bubba just torpedoed what little shot he had and Crist needs people to believe it did so they will vote for him.
This is going to take up the next day or two for the two of them. Rubio meanwhile will just go about the business of winning.
Update 2: How much does Keith Olbermann want to keep Rubio out of the Senate? He has Crist on right now.
The only logical conclusion is that Keith Olbermann wants to keep Hispanics and blacks out of the Senate.
— DrewM A little inside baseball tidbit likely to get lost in the elections but kind of fun.
I guess Tribe and Obama have a relationship going back to the time they shared at Harvard and he wrote a wide ranging letter to Obama when David Souter resigned. In the letter Tribe offered some advice to Obama about how to approach appointments to the Court of the course of his first time. Basically it came down to, name Elana Kagan first and then a real overt liberal like Kathleen Sullivan next.
Bottom line, don't nominate Sotomayor!
Bluntly put, shes not nearly as smart as she seems to think she is, and her reputation for being something of a bully could well make her liberal impulses backfire and simply add to the fire power of the Roberts/Alito/Scalia/Thomas wing of the Court on issues like those involved in the voting rights case argued last week and the Title VII case of the New Haven firefighters argued earlier, issues on which Kennedy will probably vote with Roberts despite Souters influence but on which I dont regard Kennedy as a lost cause for the decade or so that he is likely to remain on the Court.
Of course, Obama didn't take Tribe's advice and Sotomayor is on the Court and Kagan followed about a year later.
Also of note is the first paragraph of the letter in which Tribe gives voice to what a lot of people seem to think..Anthony Kennedy is kind of mushy and can be wooed to win votes. It's almost impossible to know how true that perception actually is but here's hoping that the 'good' Kennedy shows up more often than not in the next few years.
Should Professor Tribe find himself in front of the justices anytime soon it might be just a tad bit...awkward.
Now the hunt is on to find out how this letter found its way to a conservative legal figure like Ed Wehlan.
— Ace Just mentioning. 5:45 we're looking to get there. It's at Grimm's campaign offices in Dyker Heights, 7313 13th Avenue, between 73rd and 74th Street, off the D Train at the 71st street stop. It's a lovely day so we'll be out dropping literature and knocking on doors.
I mentioned something about a pick-up -- if you need a ride or can offer a ride let me know. The office is also willing to send out a car to pick people up, if we need that. Probably from a local stop, like one of the 2 or A stops in Brooklyn. (Whoops: Cancel that last part. One office offered that but the office we're going to says they can't do that.)
— Ace Pudding, anyone?
Four-term Progressive Caucus Co-Chairman Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) is locked in the fight of his political life against a 28-year-old rocket scientist.more...
Raytheon physicist Ruth McClung does not have the most sophisticated campaign operation this election cycle its being managed by her mother, Gini Crawford but the Republican nonetheless finds herself running neck and neck with an established Democrat.
McClungs sudden rise has taken many including Grijalva by surprise. She entered the GOP primary race in May 2009, defeated four challengers in August and now finds herself on the verge of a stunning election upset, according to a number of polls.
The Cook Political Report moved the race between McClung and Grijalva to toss-up in early October despite the registration edge for Democrats in the district.
In recent weeks, McClungs campaign has benefited from an influx in outside cash and donor dollars spurred by endorsements from conservative heavyweights Sarah Palin, Michelle Malkin and Tammy Bruce.
— Ace Patrick Ishmael put this together. more...
42 queries taking 2.0486 seconds, 279 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.