February 27, 2006

After Dinner Cowbell: 2006 Economy Will Roar Back
— Ace

Just in time to distract us from the Iraq Civil War:

The US economy is set for a strong rebound in the first quarter of 2006, shaking off the hurricane-related weakness of the fourth quarter, a survey of business economists showed.

The survey of the National Association of Business Economists called for the economy to expand at a robust 4.5 percent pace in the current quarter -- the fastest since 2003 -- after a disappointing 1.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter.

"The NABE panel sees the economy roaring back in early 2006 following the fourth quarter's tepid 1.1 percent growth," said Stuart Hoffman, NABE president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

"Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last years hurricanes and surging oil price."

The report based on a survey of 53 economists projected the overall pace of growth for 2006 at 3.3 percent.

Posted by: Ace at 02:56 PM | Comments (16)
Post contains 169 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Best evidence that the economy is humming along just fine?

You barely find a story about it in the MSM, and if you do, it goes something like, "Unempoyment low but doesn't tell the whole story." Or, "Record consecutive quarters of corporate earnings growth can't hide dark clouds on the horizon." Or...hell, I could go on all day.

Posted by: kelly at February 27, 2006 03:10 PM (Bd0+F)

2 Give it a while. The housing bubble has just started imploding and once it does, it'll take the economy with it.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aAka5kzFKTuU&refer=home

"New-home sales in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in a year in January and the number of properties on the market was the most ever, more signs housing is losing its luster after five record years."

Losing its luster the same way the dotcom bubble lots its luster.

Posted by: hyper-hormonal monkey at February 27, 2006 04:10 PM (OvySo)

3 What goes up must come down.

Hurricane season is fast approaching. Hom many Katrinas will there be this year, Mr. Gore?

Posted by: Dr. Remulak at February 27, 2006 04:34 PM (I/2+Y)

4 What goes up must come down.

Hurricane season is fast approaching. How many Katrinas will there be this year, Mr. Gore?

Posted by: Dr. Remulak at February 27, 2006 04:34 PM (I/2+Y)

5 What goes up must come down.

are you a urologist-type doctor?

Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 04:09 AM (pzen5)

6 The unemployment rate is too low.
It bothers me how low the unemployment rate is.

Posted by: lauraw at February 28, 2006 06:47 AM (QMMge)

7 Not ot mentiont he fact that the last quarter GDP was just revised upwards from 1.1 to 1.6.

Wonder how widely that information will be distributed.

Posted by: Phil at February 28, 2006 07:09 AM (39DNf)

8 It bothers me how low the unemployment rate is.

Don't worry lauraw, any second now all those disenfranchised workers who dropped out of the statistics will come roaring back into the job market. Poor guys - waiting on the sidelines for years for their chance to start looking for a job again. Any time now that unemployment rate'll shoot right back up as the hungry hordes finally get back in the game. Any time.

Posted by: geoff at February 28, 2006 07:26 AM (vpYuK)

9 Hubby has ties to the freight industry...truck drivers are needed so badly in many areas right now that there are signing bonuses.

Recruiters are out there.

Posted by: lauraw at February 28, 2006 07:51 AM (QMMge)

10 Wonder how widely that information will be distributed.

First it has to be distributed at all.

Posted by: DDG at February 28, 2006 07:53 AM (4uzEh)

11 I still don't get how you can get discouraged and drop out of the job market. Unless you have no money or a buttload. Is it about hooking up with somebody who has enough for two? Because that didn't work out for me, either.

If anybody works this out, please let me know. I find employment pretty discouraging today.

Posted by: S. Weasel at February 28, 2006 07:56 AM (rasT+)

12 lauraw, the shortage is so bad right now I saw something this past year that I have never seen before, semis on the highways on Christmas day, New Year's, and last year on July 4.

We can't hire enough right now either.

Frankly this near full employment thing is a pain in the ass. Programmers are gettin restless.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 07:56 AM (Rsjj6)

13 Lauraw and Dave,

The tech industry is really starting to heat up as well. From some agonizing years a few years ago, people I know are getting two to three decent job offers a week, and three times that many hits on Dice.

Posted by: DDG at February 28, 2006 08:00 AM (4uzEh)

14 So whats up with this?

Posted by: scott at February 28, 2006 08:10 AM (wZLWV)

15 We budgeted 15% turnover.

I think that will be low.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at February 28, 2006 08:14 AM (Rsjj6)

Posted by: Vincent at May 13, 2006 04:47 AM (REY8t)

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