October 30, 2010

A Brief Respite From Election Concerns: Let's Worry About China Instead
— Geoff

While we've been preoccupied with the latest election polls and candidate gaffes, the rest of the world has been ambling along. And Gregg Easterbrook, taking note of some of the more hostile ambling betwixt the US and China, tries to convince us that China is no threat at all:

China should not be our next whipping boy
...
But in the main, there has never been a superpower relationship like the one between Washington and Beijing — mainly constructive, mainly cooperative, neither side positioning to destroy the other.

The world’s largest public works endeavor — the $75 billion South-to-North Water Transfer Project in its early stages in China — could be smashed from the air in a day by United States precision-guided bombs. China is building the project because Chinese leaders assume they will never go to war with the United States. That’s what we should assume too — and not make China into a distant whipping boy for our own domestic problems that U.S. leaders are afraid to face.

Apparently Mr. Easterbrook can't conceive of a China that may believe that they can dispute American air power over their country. But what has China been up to lately? Well, in the past week:

  • China Sends the Marines to Thailand (10/28/2010)

  • Chinese Army conducts live military exercises in Tibet (10/27/2010)

  • China, Azerbaijan pledge to strengthen military ties (10/26/2010)
  • Yemen, China discuss military cooperation (10/26/2010)

  • China wants full military exchanges with India (10/24/2010)

  • High-level Chinese military delegation arrives in North Korea amid succession (10/23/2010)

  • Rwanda, China boost military ties (10/23/2010)

  • Turkey-China Military Drill Reveals Deepening Ties, Widening Reach (10/22/2010)


While China's been gallivanting about the world consolidating its military relationships and conducting military exercises, we've sent in our toughest man in the administration to deal with the Asian situation: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. I honestly don't think anybody in this administration is better suited to address the problem, but that's not saying much when you've got dim bulbs like this on the National Security Council:
"We're seeking the mantra of a positive, cooperative, constructive relationship," Jeff Bader of the National Security Council said Thursday.

He noted that Obama has met seven times with Hu and three times with Premier Wen Jiabao. "I guarantee you that's unprecedented in modern history," Bader said.

Yeah, unprecedentedly ineffective. Bush got his diplomatic ass handed to him by Jintao Hu, pursuing diplomatic talks with the expectation that economic interdependency would lead to concessions on the part of the Chinese. Didn't happen. The Chinese love diplomacy for the same reason that Iranians love it - it costs them nothing and gives them the time to do what they want.

But back to Easterbrook. He eventually talks about China's naval limitations:

China is expanding its navy, which today is equipped only for coastal operation, though perhaps someday will venture into the “blue water” where the United States Navy rules.
But Financial Times tells us:
2010 is likely to go down as the year when China’s blue-water navy became reality. This switched on warning lights among China’s coastal neighbours as well as the US, the incumbent superpower.
Attention Mr. Easterbrook: in geopolitical reality, "perhaps someday" = "this year."

A lot of people believe that China's unsustainable growth rate, weakening demographics and hyperinflated real estate market will lead it to crash before it becomes a threat. But people have been making that point for nearly 10 years, and China is still growing, still modernizing its military, and still extending its influence around the world. They may indeed collapse, but sitting and hoping for it isn't a very formidable strategy.

Posted by: Geoff at 10:24 AM | Comments (118)
Post contains 615 words, total size 6 kb.

1 The real threat is President Palin declaring war on China.

Posted by: Olivia Wilde at October 30, 2010 10:31 AM (Ew1k4)

2 Geoff obviously hates people of color.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:31 AM (tJjm/)

3 Don't they have aircraft carriers now?

Posted by: Navycopjoe on his IPhone4 and cubbies superfanboy at October 30, 2010 10:31 AM (9IFxO)

4 Hey, I could be navycopjoehonglo

Posted by: Navycopjoe on his IPhone4 and cubbies superfanboy at October 30, 2010 10:33 AM (9IFxO)

5 O/t: Geoff, did you see the "Chinese Professor" parody by NMA in the sidebar?

Posted by: rdbrewer at October 30, 2010 10:33 AM (//Cu/)

6 China's unsustainable growth rate, weakening demographics and hyperinflated real estate market will lead it to crash before it becomes a threat

Of course, it's general collapse could make it more of a threat, trading of capability for likelihood of action.

Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2010 10:34 AM (Ew1k4)

7 I worry about what China will do if a crash there seems imminent. The "logical" solution is to annex another nation -- or nations -- and seize their wealth, or maybe push for an international "conflict." They don't strike me as a nation that will go down without a fight.

Right now, thanks to Osama Obama, we'd be sitting ducks if they took on S Korea, Japan or the U.S.

Bush gave the store away to the Red Chinese through stupidity and wishful thinking. The Traitor-in-Chief is finishing the job out of solidarity with oppressed peoples and his suicidal desire for revenge on America.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 30, 2010 10:34 AM (Ulu3i)

8 It's high time to kick Turkey out of NATO - their membership always was a sham - and open serious discussion about the future of Constantinople with Greece and Moscow.  That might serve as a wake up call to the budding Islamist government in that occupied city.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:34 AM (tJjm/)

9
The Chinese love diplomacy for the same reason that Iranians love it - it costs them nothing and gives them the time to do what they want.

This.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 30, 2010 10:35 AM (0fzsA)

10 OT. To the plastic surgeon who did my friend's new bride's fake tits......... Excellent job

Posted by: Navycopjoe on his IPhone4 and cubbies superfanboy at October 30, 2010 10:35 AM (9IFxO)

11
I worry about what China will do if a crash there seems imminent. The "logical" solution is to annex another nation -- or nations -- and seize their wealth, or maybe push for an international "conflict."

That's one of the reasons its so focused on taking Taiwan.

O/t: Geoff, did you see the "Chinese Professor" parody by NMA in the sidebar?

No, I read a summary of it, though.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 10:35 AM (Oxm+X)

12 Stop me before I blitz again!!!

Posted by: Gregg Easterbrook at October 30, 2010 10:36 AM (BP6Z1)

13
The environmental collapse in China is another issue swept under the rug.


Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 30, 2010 10:37 AM (0fzsA)

14 10 OT. To the plastic surgeon who did my friend's new bride's fake tits.........
Excellent job

Posted by: Navycopjoe on his IPhone4 and cubbies superfanboy at October 30, 2010 03:35 PM (9IFxO)

Pics?



Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:37 AM (tJjm/)

15 OT. To the plastic surgeon who did my friend's new bride's fake tits.........
Excellent job

pics etc.


Posted by: Waterhouse at October 30, 2010 10:37 AM (j+ygy)

16 Geoff we owe them a trillion. Stop buying their stuff from WalMArt if you are afraid of them. Demand all Morons brave and true do the same.

Posted by: Suge Knight at October 30, 2010 10:38 AM (0YS61)

17 @11: at least the Taiwanese know they can count on Obama to stand up for them in a pinch.

Like he did for the Czechs and Poles.  And the Iraqis and Afghans.

No... wait!

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:38 AM (tJjm/)

18 @10: well, yeah, sure they look good navycopjoe, but do they feel real?

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:39 AM (tJjm/)

19
Posted by: Suge Knight

STFU, dunce.

Posted by: Soothsayer is getting lost down Memory Ln at October 30, 2010 10:39 AM (uFokq)

20
Geoff we owe them a trillion. Stop buying their stuff from WalMArt if you are afraid of them.

Stop stalking me when I go to Walmart.

And I'm not afraid of China. I'm afraid of an America that has lost its way, and politicians that don't see the need for a coherent domestic and foreign policy that will protect American interests and keep America strong.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 10:40 AM (Oxm+X)

21 All these threats from the Middle Kingdom are why we need to solidify our friendship with India (another piece of non-cowboy diplomacy no one thanks W for).  India's population will surpass China's in less than 50 years, and can serve as a counterweight in the appropriately-named Indochina.  Already there are operations on the QT by India to destabilize Burma, in which China has heavily invested due to its mineral wealth and access to the Indian Ocean.

Posted by: logprof at October 30, 2010 10:40 AM (BP6Z1)

22

O/T  Holy Moly!    Union members are releasing an anti-Harry ad in NV.

http://tiny.cc/w5ffq

Scairy's boned.

Posted by: Steph at October 30, 2010 10:40 AM (ZfkPl)

23
Chinese products are everywhere - not just Walmart.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 30, 2010 10:40 AM (0fzsA)

24 If you ever read Easterbrook's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com, you know that he has an Obama-like gulf between his self-perceived intelligence and his actual smarts (or lack of).

My favorite Easterbrookism is that "horsepower causes road rage." Uh, no, horsepower causes one to be able to safely execute a pass on a curving two-lane road. Stupidity causes road rage.

Posted by: schizuki at October 30, 2010 10:41 AM (M+lbD)

25 China is building the project because Chinese leaders assume they will never go to war with the United States. That’s what we should assume too...

Right, because the Chinese would NEVER go to war with us, without warning and unprovoked.  Oh, wait... they already did, didn't they?

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:41 AM (tJjm/)

26 Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 03:38 PM

If the Mohammedan Mouthpiece lets Taiwan go Red, he'll only be finishing up what Nixon started.

Forget Watergate. The worst think that old crook did was throw Taiwan over the side so he could suck up to Chairman Mao, who played him like a p'i-p'a.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 30, 2010 10:43 AM (Ulu3i)

27 23
Chinese products are everywhere - not just Walmart.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 30, 2010 03:40 PM (0fzsA)


Yeah, cheap Chinese crap made of highly toxic chemicals, too much lead paint, contaminated food, and shoddy workmankship.  I really wonder if all the money we save now on crap like that won't be repaid with interest in the form of huge defense budgets of the future.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:43 AM (tJjm/)

28 Right, because the Chinese would NEVER go to war with us, without warning and unprovoked.  Oh, wait... they already did, didn't they?

Uh, when was that?

Posted by: Methos flipping through a history book at October 30, 2010 10:45 AM (Ew1k4)

29 @28: Let me give you a hint: K-O-R-E-A...



Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:45 AM (tJjm/)

30 They're gonna have to start invading someone soon , they got's no wimmens .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at October 30, 2010 10:46 AM (XDeui)

31 Uh, when was that?

Posted by: Methos flipping through a history book at October 30, 2010 03:45 PM (Ew1k4)

1951

Posted by: robtr at October 30, 2010 10:48 AM (hVDig)

32 Geoff we owe them a trillion. Stop buying their stuff from WalMArt if you are afraid of them.

What a stupid non-sequitur from a stupid fucking troll. The only reason the US owes China anything is because the federal government runs deficits financed by Chinese purchases of government debt.

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 30, 2010 10:49 AM (j+ygy)

33 21 All these threats from the Middle Kingdom are why we need to solidify our friendship with India (another piece of non-cowboy diplomacy no one thanks W for).  India's population will surpass China's in less than 50 years, and can serve as a counterweight in the appropriately-named Indochina.  Already there are operations on the QT by India to destabilize Burma, in which China has heavily invested due to its mineral wealth and access to the Indian Ocean.

Posted by: logprof at October 30, 2010 03:40 PM (BP6Z1)

Next big war is China-India, what else is China & India going to do with their excess young men? I guessing around 2025. And India does have Aircraft Carriers and uses them.

Our most important assets to counter China - Nuclear Attack subs.

Posted by: Radioactive Satellite Of LOVE at October 30, 2010 10:49 AM (PWj+8)

34 K-O-R-E-A...

Oy, duh.  I was thinking something along the lines of the Germans and Pearl Harbor.  All I remember about the Chinese involvement in Korea was that MacArthur wanted to nuke them. 

Posted by: Methos at October 30, 2010 10:50 AM (Ew1k4)

35 http://tinyurl.com/27nntc5

Which moron did this?

Posted by: Radioactive Satellite Of LOVE at October 30, 2010 10:51 AM (PWj+8)

36 The US forces actually killed one of Mao's sons in Korea. Despite this, Nixon managed to open China only two decades later (when Mao was still kicking). Best thing that Nixon ever did.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 10:51 AM (JJSIm)

37 O/T

RCP has just rated Barney Franks district as lean democratic. Cook rated it as lean democratic this week as well. Just imagine if he loses. No amount of pudding in the world would be enough to satisfy me.

Posted by: JC at October 30, 2010 10:51 AM (7PT3B)

38 China is expanding its navy, which today is equipped only for coastal operation, though perhaps someday will venture into the “blue water” where the United States Navy rules.

This at the same time we are making huge cuts in our Navy.

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 10:53 AM (/jbAw)

39 @36: Mao was notorious for deflowering scores of virgins, leaving them infested with VD and often times pregnant.  Not just a bloody butcher of epic proportions, but a voracious sexual pig.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:53 AM (tJjm/)

40 7 I worry about what China will do if a crash there seems imminent. The "logical" solution is to annex another nation -- or nations -- and seize their wealth, or maybe push for an international "conflict." They don't strike me as a nation that will go down without a fight.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 30, 2010 03:34 PM (Ulu3i)

If China fears a crash?  All they have to do is call in the US Debt... and when we can't pay what we owe, seize International assets...

Now, will they? No, as it would destroy too much of a market place they need... BUT... with the soon to come crash of the US economy, that market will not be the saftey net it once was.

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 30, 2010 10:53 AM (AdK6a)

41 And THAT pig is what the Obamas chose to decorate their Christmas Tree with!  Christ Almighty.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:53 AM (tJjm/)

42
Here's hoping the Chicoms stall for two years so that we can get some adults in charge here. Hopefully Tuesday will be a start. 

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at October 30, 2010 10:54 AM (vbh31)

43 but a voracious sexual pig.

Great men have great appetites.  Like Bill Clinton.

Posted by: Bill Maher at October 30, 2010 10:55 AM (Ew1k4)

44 38 China is expanding its navy, which today is equipped only for coastal operation, though perhaps someday will venture into the “blue water” where the United States Navy rules.

This at the same time we are making huge cuts in our Navy.

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 03:53 PM (/jbAw)


Not to mention abandoning our manned Space Program.  I understand why the economy is the hot button issue this year, but I hope the conservatives start to bring Obama's efforts to destroy us as a superpower & space faring nation to the public's attention.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 10:56 AM (tJjm/)

45 39 @36: Mao was notorious for deflowering scores of virgins, leaving them infested with VD and often times pregnant. Not just a bloody butcher of epic proportions, but a voracious sexual pig. Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 03:53 PM (tJjm/) Yeah, Mao had some wicked VD. Read "Mao: The Unknown Story" if you haven't already. (Jung Chang is not a Mao fan)

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 10:56 AM (JJSIm)

46

Also, on the "Navy" issue.

China does not NEED a true Blue Water Navy.  Blue Water Navys are built around long range sustainable operations on the other side of the world... China understands that her interests are Regional... thus they only need enough of a Navy to defend the region (ie keep our Carriers out of Range)... which with regioanal Air Power and Land based long range missles, is a much easier proposition.

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 30, 2010 10:56 AM (AdK6a)

47
Yeah, I can't understand why we don't extra-close with India and make them our #1 allies instead of the Brits and the rest of turds in Eurabia.

And if I were Israel, I'd make India my BFF.

Posted by: Soothsayer is getting lost down Memory Ln at October 30, 2010 10:56 AM (uFokq)

48
That'd be a helluva an alliance -- US-India-Israel.

Posted by: Soothsayer is getting lost down Memory Ln at October 30, 2010 10:58 AM (uFokq)

49 Best thing that Nixon ever did. Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 03:51 PM

Are you kidding? I doubt the Japanese and the South Koreans would agree. Building up our enemies -- which Red China was then, and is now -- is, to put it as mildly as possible, short-sighted. Nixon gave them access to our economy, and Bubba Clinton made sure they got some juicy secrets to help them in the electronics and armament arenas.

Until Nixon pulled that, I almost thought he was a fairly decent president. But that photo-op with the Great Helmsman and a desire to get his name in the history books overrode whatever sense he had.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 30, 2010 10:58 AM (Ulu3i)

50 The surest sign that China is rising as a military threat to the USA and the Free World is that the Liberals have begun their USA/China Detente campaign.  And oh yeah: they're already blaming America First!

'Cause That's What Liberals Do.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:00 AM (tJjm/)

51 300 million guns a'loadin'
Satan cries "Fair Game" - CCR

Posted by: sifty at October 30, 2010 11:00 AM (bNuUU)

52 @49 With all due respect, China is not an enemy. That doesn't mean that we are the best of allies, but mutual self-interest has allowed unprecedented increases in wealth in both China and the US due to the opening up. Free trade is one of the most effective liberalizing influences in the world, and Nixon ensured that China didn't just stagnate and become externally violent (on top of the domestic turmoil). In addition, opening China played a big role in defeating Communism in the USSR.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 11:02 AM (JJSIm)

53 Fuck China. I'm worried about elections.

Posted by: km at October 30, 2010 11:03 AM (ehqqs)

54 3 Fuck China . I'm worried about elections. Posted by: km at October 30, 2010 04:03 PM (ehqqs) I've tried my best since I moved here.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 11:05 AM (JJSIm)

55 I'll take the combo of Bolton's moustache and Christie's cojones over the current Pu-Pu platter administration any day of the week. Hopefully, say January 20th, 2013.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:06 AM (9Cooa)

56 If current trends continue, I can foresee a day when Chinese troops patrol Southern California and the entire West Coast as well as the streets of Japan.

Obama would sell our launch codes for the price of a shitty presidential library full of Bill Ayers' books.


Posted by: sifty at October 30, 2010 11:08 AM (bNuUU)

57 While the US and Taiwan will always do the dance of "will the Chinese come", in my mind China's true intentions are the Soviet/Russian Far East.  It's a resource-rich zone and border squabbles have gone on there since the Sino-Soviet split of the '50s/'60s.  Why else would China have the world's largest combat-ready artillery corps?

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20101024.aspx

Posted by: Captain Ned at October 30, 2010 11:08 AM (P1/uX)

58 @52: well, trade with China certainly made CHINA richer.  Did it really create unprecedented wealth in the USA, or did it just hollow out our economy?  What do we really make here anymore?

I had an economics professor that scoffed at the idea of a "service-based economy."  He said the classic example of one was already Ireland: you would wash your neighbor's laundry, and he'd wash yours.  But is that really "wealth creation"?

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:08 AM (tJjm/)

59 When China cozies up to the Joos, then you can sound the alarm. Sunday family dinners at Wo-Hop will never be the same.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:08 AM (9Cooa)

60 Mao was one of my favorite political philosophers.

Posted by: Annita Dunn at October 30, 2010 11:08 AM (tf9Ne)

61

I think the Chinese remember Chosin better then most of the morons here.

A lot of Chinese may have died, but at the end of the day they kicked us out of North Korea.

Posted by: Greg not Greg Troll at October 30, 2010 11:10 AM (3W1+C)

62 But he better do it in two years. Because his scrawny ass is getting fired like a sleeping fry cook at Wendy's.

Posted by: sifty at October 30, 2010 11:10 AM (bNuUU)

63 @58: I've always thought the post-soviet Russians are dumber than a box of rocks.  I mean, they always HAVE been, of course.  But it just seems odd that Putin continues to pursue a policy of antagonism with Washington when he's 2 billion Chinese crowded again the resource rich region of Siberia, populated by about 20 million Russians - many of whom are not really Russian anyway, but just local peoples with no love for Moscow.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:11 AM (tJjm/)

64 61 Mao was one of my favorite political philosophers. Posted by: Annita Dunn at October 30, 2010 04:08 PM (tf9Ne) Can you do that lizard-tongue thing?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:11 AM (9Cooa)

65 Sorry about the broken syntax - need to s-s-s-l-l-l-o-o-o-w down....

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:12 AM (tJjm/)

66 66 61 Mao was one of my favorite political philosophers.
Posted by: Annita Dunn at October 30, 2010 04:08 PM (tf9Ne)

Because he could slurp the frosting off a wedding cake without using his hands?

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:12 AM (tJjm/)

67 Don't get me wrong, export oriented growth among the Asian countries has led to huge trade imbalances. In the end, though, all of that USD$ debt is denominated in a currency which the US controls. China and Japan and Korea have allowed the US to have more spending power than it should have, based largely on the cheap financing that they extended us.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 11:12 AM (JJSIm)

68 Yeah, to hell with Turkey. Goddamn Islamist back-stabbers. We need to start thinking of Turkey as our enemy, because that's how they think of us. Kick em out of NATO just for starters.

Posted by: TuckFurkey at October 30, 2010 11:13 AM (QcFbt)

69 I think it's time for some Zombie détante with Zombie-Nixon and Zombie Chou En-Lai. Hell, maybe we should team up with them and they can have everything west of Irkutsk and we get everything east of Yakutsk to Kamchatka. Just like RISK! My favorite game next to Candyland!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:14 AM (9Cooa)

70 well, I'm off to bed. It is 4am in Shanghai.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 11:14 AM (JJSIm)

71 China and Japan and Korea have allowed the US to have more spending power than it should have, based largely on the cheap financing that they extended us. Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 04:12 PM (JJSIm

True, and in theory anyway all that money will eventually be repatriated in the form of capital investments from overseas, that will help our economy.  On the other hand, we are very close to no longer having a car industry, long seen as a hallmark of a developed economy.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:15 AM (tJjm/)

72 On the other hand, we are very close to no longer having a car industry, long seen as a hallmark of a developed economy. Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 04:15 PM (tJjm/) Yes, but every civilized nation has national health and unions! That's what Fareed Zakaria sez, and he oughta know, right?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:17 AM (9Cooa)

73 Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when yellow will be mellow.

Posted by: Rev Joseph Lowery, Precedential Medal of Freedom recipient ... bitches at October 30, 2010 11:17 AM (G/MYk)

74 On the other hand, we are very close to no longer having a car industry, long seen as a hallmark of a developed economy.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 04:15 PM (tJjm/)

We have a car industry, just no longer in Detroit.

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 11:18 AM (/jbAw)

75 The biggest concern should not be China's blue water threat.  IMHO, the bigger concern is fighting a 30-45 day conflict between a US Division sized force and a Chinese army. 

Posted by: Alex at October 30, 2010 11:18 AM (aAsSp)

76 ...when yellow will be mellow. Posted by: Rev Joseph Lowery, Precedential Medal of Freedom recipient ... bitches at October 30, 2010 04:17 PM (G/MYk) E-lec-trikle Banana.... etc.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:18 AM (9Cooa)

77 Yes, but every civilized nation has national health and unions! That's what Fareed Zakaria sez, and he oughta know, right?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 04:17 PM (9Cooa)

Touché

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:20 AM (tJjm/)

78 We have a car industry, it is just foreign owned. All those Toyotas are made here. China does worry me too, a bit, though I don't like to think of them as "enemy." The Dems are far more a threat to us than the Chinese. If the US cannot continue to buy Chinese goods, China is the one that is screwed. They are willing to artificially surpress Chinese' spending power so that we keep buying.

Posted by: In Exile at October 30, 2010 11:20 AM (JJSIm)

79

We have a car industry, just no longer in Detroit.

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 04:18 PM (/jbAw)


More accurate to say, We no longer have Detroit.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:20 AM (tJjm/)

80 Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 04:20 PM (tJjm/) Pas de quoi. You keep feedin' 'em and I'll keep hittin' 'em and vice-versa.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:21 AM (9Cooa)

81 More accurate to say, We no longer have Detroit. Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 04:20 PM (tJjm/) Yeah, but Detroit sure has the rest of us... by the short hairs.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 30, 2010 11:21 AM (9Cooa)

82 @65:

Didn't Germany and the USSR have a treaty?

Posted by: Captain Ned at October 30, 2010 11:24 AM (P1/uX)

83 All they have to do is call in the US Debt...

I keep hearing people say this but I have no idea what mechanism China could use to do this.  The best they can do is quit buying our new debt.

Posted by: toby928™ at October 30, 2010 04:23 PM (S5YRY)

-------------------------------------------------

With respect to the debt issue, China is on the losing end.  If they stop buying our debt and crush our economy, they go supernova and end up as a black hole.  If they make other threats on the dollar or with their debt, they'd be the first on the default list, after which they'd go supernova and end up a black hole.  China is walking a very fine line, and at our pleasure.

Posted by: iknowtheleft at October 30, 2010 11:27 AM (G/MYk)

84 China is running out of girls. Big mistake.

Posted by: eman at October 30, 2010 11:27 AM (5/qO3)

85 ...the bigger concern is fighting a 30-45 day conflict between a US Division sized force and a Chinese army.

Agreed.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at October 30, 2010 11:30 AM (vbh31)

86 I wouldn't characterize the Chinese entry into the Korean War as exactly "unprovoked". MacArthur made no secret of his desire to blow right past the Yalu river, run Mao out of China, and install Chiang Kai-Shek or some other puppet in his place. Nor was it without warning, the Chinese repeatedly stated their intention to enter the war in force if UN forces continued advancing north. The only reason it was a "surprise" was that quite a few high ranking fools refused to believe that a bunch of "laundrymen" could be any kind of threat. Some of them were still exhorting US troops to push north after they were surrounded at the Chosin.

Posted by: country blumpkin at October 30, 2010 11:31 AM (ADeN1)

87 88 All they have to do is call in the US Debt...

And all we have to do is refuse to repay it.  One thing is a fact: if all of China's dollars become worthless, they are SCREWED royally.

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 30, 2010 11:32 AM (tJjm/)

88

the bigger concern is fighting a 30-45 day conflict between a US Division sized force and a Chinese army.

Agreed.

I hear you there.

Posted by: 1st Marines at Chosin at October 30, 2010 11:35 AM (3W1+C)

89

Nixon opened up China to play them off against the USSR and detach them from supporting N. Viet Nam.  The Chinese and the Vietnamese are ancestral enemies, and it was part of the "realpolitik" to end our involvement in Viet Nam.

I don't think anyone in 1974 could have foreseen what has happened with our trade relationship with China since, let alone the hollowing out of the US industrial base.

The Chinese will make military moves, but will not really theaten war, regardless of what some may say within China (such as various published articles from military people in the PLA).  The way things are going, they will get what they want by default.

1) Russia has imploding demographics. China will get everything they want out of Siberia by default in a generation.

2) As the US fades as THE Pacific military power, Taiwan (the errant province) will fall back into the Chinese orbit without a shot being fired.

3) The Japanese in particular are getting older faster, and will fade from the scene within another generation.

4) For most of the last 1,000 years Korea has been a satellite of China. It probably will be again,as the US military strength fades in the years to come.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch says... at October 30, 2010 11:37 AM (sJTmU)

90 @86
Hey TOTUS, or Toonces, or whoever's in charge, how'd you like a trillion dollars of debt forgiveness? Two trillion? We'd just like to become charter signatories to the (makes up name) Pacific Unified Nautical Kamakazi treaty to redistribute the defense agreements for the south Pacific. We're volunteering to do all the heavy work now! Of course it protects South Korea. Taiwan and Japan, naturally. There's a small fee for non-signatory nations and naturally a prohibition against non-participating military vessels....

Posted by: Al at October 30, 2010 11:38 AM (MzQOZ)

91 The only reason it was a "surprise" was that quite a few high ranking fools refused to believe that a bunch of "laundrymen" could be any kind of threat. Some of them were still exhorting US troops to push north after they were surrounded at the Chosin.

Posted by: country blumpkin

You couldn't be more wrong. I once knew an Army artillery guy who was in North Korea before the Chinese came across the border.  The conflict was pretty much over, the NoKo army was beaten and they were packing up their gear for an orderly withdrawal south.  By orders of the Theater Command. There was no plan to advance into China. Then they were nearly over-run by the Chinese and left most of their heavy equipment behind to save themselves. The Chinese were waiting for the Yalu to freeze hard enough for trucks and tanks to cross it, because they knew if they relied solely on the bridges, the US Air Force would take them out.

Most of what you think you "know" is latter-day revisionism meant to make Truman look good and MacArthur look bad. Everything that MacArthur did in Korea up to the time that the Chinese came into the war was approved by Truman and his cabinet.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch says... at October 30, 2010 11:45 AM (sJTmU)

92 We have some leverage with China, but not alot. Until we get our fiscal house in order, we can't make them do anything.

Posted by: Dan at October 30, 2010 12:09 PM (1jzSs)

93 Like his predecessor, Truman has been glorified and diafied by the MFM.

He was like all Democrats, a corrupt liberal.

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2010 12:12 PM (/jbAw)

94 Where do you see that scenario happening?

Central Asia is the most likely place.  Afghanistan has historically been a crossroads for the movement of troops and resources, and that hasn't changed in the last thousand years.  China is already making inroads to access the mineral wealth of the region, and it offers an avenue for population expansion.

Posted by: Alex at October 30, 2010 12:29 PM (aAsSp)

95

As much as I dislike the way the totalitarian Chinese govt. treats its people, I tend to side with the view that disasters will overtake China long before it is able to sustain any power projection on a global scale.  Along with the points made in the last paragraph, I would add the coming calamity that will be caused by the Three Gorges Dam.  The earthquake (yes, it's built on a fault) and aggravated peak ground accelleration caused by the weight of the water and dam itself will be cataclysmic.  That will release the water in the resevoir which, once completely full, will be long enough to stretch from St. Louis to New Orleans.  The resulting flood, and disease and starvation that follow, will kill tens of millions of Chinese.

All we really need to do is keep conducting FONOPS at sea and collect intelligence via HUMINT and across the electromagnetic spectrum to keep them in line until the inevitable happens.

Posted by: Ed Snyder at October 30, 2010 01:11 PM (Jkzj3)

96

Meh.  They're barely a threat to Taiwan.  I wouldn't worry.

The thing people often overlook about trade surplus economies is that they're utterly dependent on our consumers.  China didn't spend the last three decades undergoing economic reform just to try autarky today.  Some of the senior people in their military may be that stupid, but if they try it they won't survive the ensuing revolution.

Remember, China is still very poor -- an economic disruption will mean hungy people rioting in the streets.

Posted by: TallDave at October 30, 2010 01:25 PM (lNW+B)

97 96  Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch says... at October 30, 2010 04:37 PM (sJTmU)

Agree.  Also I have read that there are only 16 Million people in the eastern 2/3rds of Russia.  China needs land and wives...

Knock Knock
Russian Farmer:  Who's there?
Chinese Soldier:  A Chinese Soldier
Russian Farmer:  What The F**k?
Chinese Soldier:  Is that any way to talk to your Son-In-Law?

Another thing, check a map. They don't deed a deep water navy.  All of the oil tanker routes from the Suez to Japan/So. Korea/Etc are within reach of their Littoral navy.

I've always believed China was a thin crust of modernity along the coast...the rest of the Country hasn't changed in a thousand years.

As for Taiwan, a couple of divisions of Chicom Airborne could hold parts of Taiwan for a month...but one US sub would cut off resupply by sea, and resupply by air is a chancy proposition. 

Posted by: trainer at October 30, 2010 01:31 PM (yCWYQ)

98 A lot of people believe that China's unsustainable growth rate, weakening demographics and hyperinflated real estate market will lead it to crash before it becomes a threat.

I know who you are talking about, Mr. Smarty McChartypants.

You forget to mention that the piratical exchange rate of the yuan is artificially propping up their economy and can't be sustained.  They can't keep absorbing U.S. Treasuries indefinitely.

Posted by: Michael at October 30, 2010 01:45 PM (JtKsy)

99 Another thing, check a map. They don't deed a deep water navy.  All of the oil tanker routes from the Suez to Japan/So. Korea/Etc are within reach of their Littoral navy.

Posted by: trainer at October 30, 2010 06:31 PM (yCWYQ)

More importantly, look at where pipelines are either currently being built, or are in the planning states.

They are in the provess of creating a Pipeline system which, when complete, will bring energy in without the need of Super Tankers....

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 30, 2010 01:57 PM (AdK6a)

100
Meh.  They're barely a threat to Taiwan.  I wouldn't worry.

Nope. The fall of Taiwan is a foregone conclusion at this point. It's already become too expensive a proposition for us to conduct a battle in the strait, not that we have the national will to do it anyway. And the Taiwanese know it.

Posted by: geoff at October 30, 2010 02:31 PM (Oxm+X)

101 The potential game-changer here is whether the Japanese decide to go nuclear, am I right?

Posted by: logprof at October 30, 2010 02:43 PM (BP6Z1)

102 59 Alternate take on your professor: My concern is that I just can't believe that an economy based on people selling shoes made overseas to people who sell McDonald's burgers to people who sell shoes is sustainable. Plus I look at the labels on almost everyhting I buy, and I can't find very much made in the USA, but alamost anything I need has a Chinese version (maybe with free lead paint and melamine thrown in for good measure). Now if I needed a lawyer or a bureaucrat...

Posted by: Hrothgar at October 30, 2010 02:47 PM (gZt79)

103 OT. To the plastic surgeon who did my friend's new bride's fake tits.........
Excellent job


Around here, tits are NEVER off topic. Also, if all she got was tits and not boobies, then she was rooked. I'm just sayin'. Of course, growing my own at age 11, I never had to worry about getting ripped off...

Posted by: tcn at October 30, 2010 04:24 PM (+dwY/)

104 Easterbrook should stick to picking out throw pillows and cruising for teenaged boys, and leave the heavy geopolitical analysis to someone who doesn't have his testicles waxed, like Hillary Clinton.

Posted by: Adjoran at October 30, 2010 04:35 PM (VfmLu)

105 Yes CoolCzech: Moreover, Mao liked 12 year old girls.

Posted by: CMU VET at October 30, 2010 04:53 PM (6/2eP)

106 Taiwan is already going red. Personally, I don't think we should sell them any technology we wouldn't sell China. Secondly, China is sort of weak, militarily, though growing. However, we will be getting weaker, too, when we end up having to cut military spending. So, its going to be worse than we think - they will be growing from a weak base, while we will be shrinking from a strong base. Of course war with the USA would mean we don't have to pay back a few trillion dollars of bonds. Right? I would default on those puppies to pay for the war.

Posted by: sexypig at October 30, 2010 06:44 PM (xRO9i)

107 The real threat is President Palin declaring war on China. Posted by: Olivia Wilde at October 30, 2010 03:31 PM (Ew1k4) >>> How do you know? Have your heard her speaking in a foreign land? Have you heard her speaking her views about China? Don't be so fast. THE LAST GREATEST AMERICAN COMMUNICATOR WAS NOT A LAWYER: JUST B-MOVIE ACTOR, JUST ONE OF US. Matter factly: The woman has a very excellent talent to talk to other foreign countries. Her accent is her power. Her China view is 100 times "American", Reaganesque, and better than Obama. I was there when she made a speech in HK meeting. All the delegates loved her.

Posted by: Margotte at October 30, 2010 09:15 PM (cHW6J)

108 Obama is a weak leader. This invites our enemies to be aggressive So pay attn to who is aggressive and where.

Posted by: Zakn at October 30, 2010 10:59 PM (zyaZ1)

109 Historically, modern navies have been most often used and implemented to secure the trade interests of the nations fielding them.  With China's growing trade interests all over the world, fielding a blue water navy is not something unexpected as their economy transitions from internally oriented to externally.

The US and Brit navies both originated as protectors of trade interests.

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